Can Danny?

Let's say the Sports Guy is on to something and the going rate for Allen Iverson in Celtics green is currently: Theo Ratliff, Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, and a 2007 first round pick. If we make this deal, where do we stand as a team and what do we need to do to reach the next level?

After that Iverson deal, our team would be:

• C: Perkins, Dwayne Jones, Brian Grant
• PF: Gomes, Powe
• SF: Wally, Scalabrine
• SG: Pierce, West, Allen,
• PG: AI, Telfair, Rondo

    Needless to say, the talent/salaries of this roster are not spread out very well. Briant Grant is supposedly retiring which leaves us with a front court that consists of two tweeners at the 4 and two project centers (all of whom, combined, make about one-fifth of Allen Iverson's salary) Clearly, we have too many players in the backcourt who will be wasting away on the bench.
    Wally is the most obvious goner because he's the only non-rookie deal salary we'd have as a trade chip. With Wally gone, it's likely that Pierce moves up to the small forward spot and you then need to figure out which of the remaining guards gets minutes and which gets shipped off. Telfair is the best prospect, in my opinion, but I just don't see The Answer working well with a pure point guard. Bassy and A.I. are both players who need to work with the ball in their hands. That would leave AI, West, Pierce as our starters. West will get most of the backup minutes at the point with Allen filling his spot. Gomes can slide down to the small forward position at times. Rondo gets the other minutes that are kicking around.
    With AI making 20 million and Pierce just signed to an extension, it doesn't seem very likely that we will use the full MLE on anyone this offseason. Not that there are a ton of legitimate big men options on the free market anyway. Because of this, what we can get in trades is going to be absolutely key to our future success.     This being so, the next question is what can we get for Wally and Bassy? Wally's likely value is the usual suspects at power forward: Zach Randolph, Kenyon Martin, Carlos Boozer and Drew Gooden (sign and trade) but only Cleveland makes a likely trade partner. Portland has Martell Webster as their SF of the future while Wally can't handle the two which is where he'd have to play in Utah and Denver. New York might be interested in Wally but the best we'd likely get back from them is Mo Taylor or Malik Rose. Drew Gooden is solid but he's not going to help us defensively. For what we'd likely have to pay Drew, I'd rather stick with Gomes. The Kings have a number of guys to package for Wally but with Artest best suited for the small forward spot and Kevin Martin emerging at the off-guard, I don't see them being interested. Right now, I can't see many deals that both make sense and make us much better.
    With Bassy, it's a crap shoot. Some teams might be interested in going after him but what's on the market? The Rockets need a PG but have nothing to offer. We could hope that Atlanta might be willing to deal Josh Smith to us for Bassy but even then, Josh is another 'tweener (and likely would cost us more than Telfair). Again, Telfair is a tough sell.
    Like it or not, Ainge will likely have to look into moving Delonte West, the remaining Celtic prospect with any trade value. But even then, the guys we'd likely be looking at getting back would be Nick Collison-level players who aren't exactly solidifying the frontcourt for Truth and the Answer.
    In essence, acquiring Iverson doesn't change the focus of Ainge's job. Right now, he needs to find the right players to build around his star. After an Iverson deal, the only difference would be that "star" would become plural. We would still need to find players not just to fill the roster but to play extensive minutes in the paint. Can Danny do it? The Celtics should make the playoffs with the aforementioned roster but I doubt that they'd make it very far in the second season. On top of that, we wouldn't even have our pick to use to grab a big man in the 2007 draft. And if that wasn't enough, Kendrick Perkins would have a ridiculous amount of leverage in contract extension talks.

    So really, the question shouldn't be, Should we trade for A.I.? It should be, Will there be enoug left to build a championship contender around him and Pierce? Right now, I think it is an uphill battle with little room for error.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Where would we be right now had we stuck with the blow it up plan that was pushed earlier this past season. Obviously, we should have gotten more than just Pierce for Duhon, Nocioni, and both Knicks picks but I'm still OK with the move. We dumped Raef's contract in the deal for Tim Thomas who actually might have been better than expected during the season. Nonetheless, you let him walk because he's not part of the plans.

Our 2005 Roster was:

• C: Perkins, Blount, Borchardt
• PF: Jefferson, T. Thomas, Gomes
• SF: Nocioni, Allen, Scalabrine
• SG: R. Davis, West, G. Green.
• PG: Duhon, Banks, Dickau

That team would have been absolutely atrocious which would have netted us a top four pick, at worst, giving us picks #2 and #5 in this draft. We also would have had the 36th and 37th picks to add some talent. Being a big believer in Rudy Gay, I would have gone after him with our first pick over Ty Thomas. Assuming Morrison and Ty Thomas go at the next two spots, the choice is between Aldridge, Roy, Foye, Shelden Williams or the Telfair trade. I would like to think of other possible deals (one with Golden St. being the most obvious) but to keep this in the realm of reality, I'll stick using the deal that went down. I would alter the deal a bit getting Travis Outaw and Skinner instead of Ratliff (and dumping Blount instead of Raef). Something like, #5, Blount, Dickau, Veal for Brian Skinner, Telfair, Outlaw. The question is: is LaMarcus worth it? Is it better to go after a true point guard instead? Seeing as we should have high picks in next year's big man filled draft, I'm going to opt to dump Blount and grab Telfair. I dump the rest of the contracts I don't like and end up getting a pure point and another talented young swingman. In the second round, we could add Marcus Vinicius (who stays overseas) and Daniel Gibson, a project we can afford to take on in the second round. Our post draft roster would be:

• C: Skinner, Perkins
• PF: Nocioni, Jefferson, Gomes
• SF: Gay, Outlaw
• SG: R. Davis, Allen, Gerald Green, West
• PG: Telfair, Duhon, Gibson

I'd be interested in dealing Ricky and Jefferson for a better PF and also would investigate dealing Delonte West for Robert Swift. Say only the West deals go down, that leaves us with: Our post draft roster would be:

• C: Skinner, Swift, Perkins
• PF: Nocioni, Jefferson, Gomes
• SF: Gay, Outlaw
• SG: R. Davis, Allen, Gerald Green
• PG: Telfair, Duhon, Gibson

Nobody in the free agent market would have interested me so I would probably have skipped signing anyone. We already have 14 guys on the roster anyway. The season ahead wouldn't be a victorious one but the kids would be improving and we'd be looking towards having three picks, two possibly very good ones (ours and NY's) in the 2007 draft along with cap space galore.

Posted by SoulHonky at 02:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

If there's going to be a deal made this offseason, pretty much everyone's first choice would be... OK, Brian Scalabrine, but Raef would come in a close second. Now, if a trade for the Hornets two picks isn't available and the draft board seems to be holding steady with none of the top six prospect falling to us, we'd have to take a look at whether the #7 pick would be our best chance to dump the unhappy and only passingly productive Raef Lafrentz. They looks over some deals that Danny might consider:

Raef, #7 for Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Luke Jackson, #25
A deal I don't like at all. I'm not a fan of Z or his new contract (around 10 million per for the next four years). Luke Jackson has done nothing and we fall back in the draft for minimal improvement. But last time we had the #7 pick, we dealt it for Vitaly Potapenko straight up so at least Danny could say that he didn't repeat a past mistake, he made a signifcantly better mistake.

Raef, #7 for Kenyon Martin
K-Mart's handling of Antoine in the playoffs is the reason many people wanted 'Toine gone. It's only fitting that he would come to Boston in a deal for the man that replaced Antoine... who most people want gone. Regardless, this isn't a great deal. K-Mart is a talent but does better in the open floor which isn't the C's forte. He's also overpaid and injury prone but then again so was Raef when we got him, so who knows?

Raef, #7, Tony Allen for Troy Murphy, Derek Fisher, and Zarko Cabarkapa
I don't like this trade because Troy is vastly overpaid. That being said, this is a sort of win now trade that I wouldn't be stunned to see Danny make. The major downside is cap space, which Danny has stated that he doesn't care about. To even things out, I'm sure he'd try to get a future lotto protected draft pick from Golden St. I tried to even the deal up a bit but the best I could come up with was a deal that the Warriors would never do: Raef, #7, Scalabrine for Troy Murphy, Derek Fisher, Mickeal Pietrus.

Raef and Dickau for Juwan Howard and a sign-and-trade of David Wesley
My first thought was Raef, Tony Allen for Stromile Swift, Rafer Alston, Dikembe Mutombo but I immediately had second thoughts. The Rockets clear out a couple of mistakes and get a shorter contract and a defensive minded 2-guard that they can fit in with Luther Head and T-Mac. Raef shares time at the four with Juwan. Houston could angle for the #7 pick but Allen would be all that I would give up. I like the thought of Dikembe coming in to tutor Perkins but I'm not so hot on either Rafer or Stromile. Replace Tony with Veal and the #7 and get a 2007 Rockets pick in return? If it's unprotected I might be willing to roll the dice; if not, Rafer and Swift have too many questions. Still, a Houston deal makes sense. Raef gives the Rox a decent backup in the post and can knock down the three when Yao and T-Mac dish it out. Dickau gives them a solid third string point guard. I like Juwan as a mentor more than Raef and he's a bit more servicable. Not sure if our old numbers boy would be down for the deal (maybe he'd push for Veal instead of Dan) but it's not a terrible offer. This is pretty much a step sideways.

Raef, #7 for Austin Croshere, Sarunas Jasikevicius, and #17
This is pretty likely the best salary dump we have a shot at. Sarunas didn't exactly wow anyone in Indiana so they'd likely be willing to deal him . Raef could be more useful than Austin, who has an expiring deal, since the Pacers could lose Scot Pollard this offseason. At #17, Danny could add Sergio Rodriguez, Thabo Sefolosha, Saer Sene or whatever American falls. Bird might not be interested but if he falls for someone in the draft, he could be willing to move down and get a more useful white guy with better hair.

Raef, #7, Tony Allen for Jamaal Magloire and Mo Williams
While talent-wise this doesn't look so bad, the problem is that both Mo and Magloire are free agents after the season. Giving up the #7 and Allen for two guys who might be gone after one year doesn't make a whole heap of sense. Then again, Mo is about on par with most of the PG's in the draft so it would essentially be Tony Allen for a salary dump of Raef. It's a tough call. O'Bryant/Carney and Allen for Magloire and Mo? The Bucks have the #39 pick which could help us out. While Milwaukee could get better value for these two (like Charlie Villenueva), this deal fills the most holes for them. In the end, my questions about Magloire have me nixing this deal.

Raef, Dickau, #7 for Jamal Crawford, Malik Rose and #20
Depends on your opinion of Jamal. I think he grew a decent amount with Larry Brown this year and might be turning the corner. Not sure if working with Doc would help or hurt his progress but still... Anyway, if there's ever a place to make a deal, it's NY. While investigating a deal for Jalen or Mo Taylor's expiring deal could be interesting, I would stay away from Quentin Richardson and, of course, Jerome James. I think we could definitely work something out but you have to be sold on Jamal and his contract to pull the trigger on this one.

Raef, Wally Szczerbiak, Tony Allen, #7 for Chris Webber, Kyle Korver, #13
Tony Allen could be the perfect complement to AI with his defense and ability to handle some PG duties. And a backcourt of him and the AI's would be very nice. TA would likely come off the pine with Wally starting and feeding off of Iverson's drives. I really don't think Philly would ever do this but it's an interesting deal. Webber's contract is off the books earlier than Raef's and it seems like Danny is most interested in guys who are pegged for the #13 range. In two years, you could have Rondo, Green, Pierce with Korver off the pine. Cap space galore to sign a big man before resigning the young guys (or use the cap space to deal for a big man). It's one to chew on.

Raef, Dwayne Jones, #7 for Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, and #31
One of the more talked about options, this clears space a year earlier (Ratliff's deal is shorter) and gives us a speedy young PG. Since I'm not sold on Telfair, I added in the Dwayne Jones for the Portland second round pick. I really don't what to think about Bassy so this is a tough one. I can't fault anyone for being interested but Bassy's attitude definitely gives me pause when considering this trade. I could see his value in his own mind being a lot higher than it is when he's due to resign. If the Nets move to Brooklyn, it could be hard to keep him in Beantown.

Raef, Tony Allen, #7 for Mehmet Okur, Gordon Giricek, and #14
Raef, Al Jefferson for Carlos Boozer was an initial thought but Boozer is injury prone and overpaid. I think Big Al could put up Carlos' numbers for a lot less money. If you don't believe in Big Al, this deal might make sense but right now it's A) giving up on Jefferson too soon and b) not going to make us that much better for the money that's being paid. Dealing the pick and/or Tony Allen doesn't make sense either because why keep Al if you're just going to bury him behind Boozer? Although the Jazz could raise revenue by making a Simple Life type reality series with Tony Allen living in Utah. I think there's a good chance Carlos is on the Celtics by opening game but I wouldn't be very happy about it. Raef, Tony, #7 for Mehmet Okur and Gordon Giricek. Mehmet only makes around 8.5 million a year which is pretty damn good for 18 and 9 a game. The Jazz replace him with O'Bryant or Simmons, and we grab a PG with the #14. This is a viable option although how you judge Tony Allen makes-or-breaks it.

Raef, Tony Allen, #7 for Antawn Jamison, #18
Would Washington do it? Would we want to give up that much for Jamison? I wouldn't. It's an option but not one that I would pursue.

So what say I? Of course, Tony's legal issues make all of this more complicated but I can see a provision being worked out to rejigger the deal is TA ends up in the clink. While I'm still hoping for someone to fall or for the Hornets deal to work out, right now, the Indy, Portland and Utah deals interest me the most.

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Since this is a Can Danny site, I'll avoid the cringeworthy 2001 draft and only focus on the drafts that Danny has run. Has Danny been as great as everyone likes to say or has his draft day work been a bit overrated?

2003: The Last Year I Ever Listened to Chad Ford :
Danny took: Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins
I wanted: Leandrinho Barbosa and Maciej Lampe
Hindsight: Andy Katz actually nailed this in his mock draft as he had Mo Williams going to the C's at #20. He rationalized that he was a good young PG despite not having the best workouts. This insight elicited a simple "Huh?" from Chad Ford who proceeded to fill his draft board with names like Lampe, Malick Badianne, and Travis Hansen. Then again Katz also had us taking Sofaklis Schortsianides who has yet to even come to America (he's supposedly making it over next year and joining the Clippers). In hindsight, Perkins is still a great pick where we got him although you could argue for Mo Williams and Josh Howard would have been the best possible draft. It was a good draft for Ainge. Not so great for me.

2004: The Year We Didn't Take the Falling Star :
Danny took: Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Justin Reed
I wanted: Josh Smith, Delonte West, Anderson Varejao, Ricky Paulding
Hindsight: I really wanted the Pierce for Livingston and Maggette rumor to be true but apparently Wilcox and Maggs was the best offer coming out of L.A. Still, I couldn't believe that Josh Smith, a supposed top five talent, fell to us at 15. I was even more stunned when we passed over Josh for another high schooler. I still think Josh would have been the better pick but we have to see what Big Al can do next season. West was an obvious choice. I didn't quite get why we drafted Tony Allen because I thought we were pretty set at the swing spots and could have used a big body like Varejao. While I'm a big fan of Tony, I still think we could use Sideshow Anderson, who's come alive in the conference semis, averaging 11 and 5 and seeminly always taking a crucial charge. Reed is better than Paulding but neither really mattered or was ever going to get that much time in Beantown. As for who should have been taken, you could argue Kevin Martin but right now it's hard to question either my or Danny's first round. The second round pick should have been used on Andres Nocioni who went undrafted.

2005: The Year We Did Take or Trade the Falling Star :
Danny took: Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Orien Greene
I wanted: Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Kennedy Winston
Hindsight: The biggest change in this draft is that I would have found a way to acquire Chris Paul. I was all for the Paul for Van Exel and #3 trade which didn't go down reportedly because we wanted Travis Outlaw and they were demanding our pick. I would have just gone with Pierce for the pick. Gerald and Gomes were no brainers although I was angling for a trade to get Monta Ellis or Aundray Blatche. I had never heard of Orien Greene as was hoping we took Kennedy Winston who is now in Spain.

So What Say I Looking at it now, I'd say I'm close but Danny holds a slight edge due to his second round picks. Ainge has been steadier, shying away from a bust like Lampe but I think he really missed the boat with not taking Josh Smith. I also think we should have dealt Pierce but his career season put a damper on my saying that the deal was something we definitely should have done. It's hard to knock Danny's choices though and you can't really say his draft record is overrated. While there were better options on board, the choices he made have been solid and could definitely improve. It should be interesting to see what he does this season.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Earlier in the season, I was fully supporting the deal to send Raef and Pierce to Chicago for Andres Nocioni, Chris Duhon, Tim Thomas, and both Knicks picks. Say we made that deal, where would we be now?

Our lineup would have been this:

• C: Perkins, Blount, Borchardt
• PF: Jefferson, T. Thomas, Gomes
• SF: Nocioni, Allen, Scalabrine
• SG: R. Davis, West, G. Green.
• PG: Duhon, Banks, Dickau

So what comes of this?

The streets are safer: With Duhon in tow, the Celtics don't need Orien Greene.
We get something from the Antoine deal: Since add Nocioni and lose Raef, we'd likely dump Justin Reed and keep the big man that we got in the Antoine deal. Curtis Borchardt is no prize but I would have liked to give him a shot at some emergency minutes.
Does Gomes get a shot earlier? Odds are no he doesn't. Tony Allen can't really handle the SF spot so perhaps Gomes gets minutes with Tim Thomas as the forwards. Since Timmy is more of a perimeter forward, Gomes might have gotten to show his interior presence earlier. Still it's a stretch. Most likely, it would still take both Perkins and Jefferson going down to get him in, unless Doc decides to use him to backup Blount. Either way, the trade doesn't open up playing time for Gomes until said injuries.
West moves to combo-guard : I would have Duhon start and have West eat up the minutes backing up both Chris and Ricky. We also could go smaller and move Ricky to the three and have Duhon and Delonte in the backcourt. I've always felt Delonte would be best suited coming off the pine and this would allow us to do so.
The Celtics are terrible: Goodbye 6th pick! We'd be a pretty god-awful team but we'd have two top five lottery picks for our trouble. Not to mention that we'd also likely have top top picks in the 2007 draft because we wouldn't rush to use up our cap space in this weak free agent crop.
The League is our Oyster: We would have freed up cap space by getting rid of both of our max contracts, we'd have Nocioni, Davis, and Blount along with two top five picks to offer in deals. We could move Nocino, Davis, Blount, and a pick for a big name and STILL have a top 5 pick to use.

So What Say I?
A mixed bag. While I like the thought of rebuilding, I didn't realize Nocioni was 26 at the time I was floating this deal. I love his game but this team is a ways away so we'd have been better off holding out for Gordon or Deng. Also, with the Bulls retaining Gordon, they have a pierce that they could easily combine with Raef to make him easier to move. Portland, Utah, or Denver might move their problematic power forwards to Chicago for, say, Raef, Gordon, and Sweetney. As much as I'm not sold on any of those guys for the C's, adding Boozer/Zach/K-Mart to a lineup of Hinrich, Pierce, Deng, and Chandler could be frightening.
But I can't say enough about the picks and cap space and our ability to start fresh. The biggest issue is that this draft is a crapshoot. How good will Ty Thomas and Adam Morrison turn out to be? Is Bargnani and Gay the new Dirk and Finley or Tskitishvilli and Rodney White? I don't know where we'd be. A lot of people might argue that we'd be back where we were in 1997, but then again, how many people would turn down a shot at Billups and T-Mac if they had another chance at it?
In the end, this is one of the few moves/non-moves that doesn't bother me at all. I'd love to see Pierce retire in Celtic green. Then again, if dealing him will get us closer to NBA gold, then we have to put our sentiment behind us and make the move. Was this that move? Only time will tell.

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Where would we stand today if we didn't go after Wally Szczerbiak? How would our position this offseason change? What would have transpired had Ricky, Marcus, Mark, and Justin remained on our team?

Marcus Banks: No difference. Danny made the questionable move of turning down the option on Banks' contract meaning that Marcus was to be an unrestricted free agent after this season anyway. All that would have happened was that he probably would have gotten more minutes once Delonte went down and he might have helped his salary negotations with a solid performance in those games. Then again, Doc might have let him rot on the bench. Either way, he wasn't staying in Beantown.

Justin Reed: Never would have played. Is also a free agent. No loss. Ricky Davis: Ricky would have been Ricky, and he might have been able to show off a bit for an offseason trade by being the main man once Pierce went down. Since our won/loss record didn't change much after the deal, I don't think you can say our draft pick would have been affected by the deal (or lack thereof).

Mark Blount: Now while some people say that the Mark Blount rejuvenation would never have happened had he not been traded, the question one has to ask them is: What rejuvenation? Yeah he looked like a new and shudder-to-think even more annoying version of himself when he played the C's after the deal but his monthly split actually were worse after the deal. As much as I despised Blount, one has to think that he would have some trade value this offseason, especially since he, Ricky Davis, and the lottery pick could be grouped for a top player.

What We Lose: A lottery protected first round pick & Wally Szczerbiak.
This is like a fat girl who might be cute if she lost some weight. Do you get a little something something now right now? Yeah, enough to tide you over but not enough to make you happy. Is their potential in the future? Maybe. Could you have done better if you waited for someone else to come along? Odds are, yes. (Then again, if we hold on and can't move Blount in this offseason, then we're stuck with nothing but what amounts to a waste of flesh in our hands.)

So What Say I?
With Blount and Ricky on the payroll, we would have a much better standing in trades. As annoying as Blount was, teams would rather get more for their money and it is easier dealing an underpaid swingman at 6 million with an overpaid big making 5 million than trying to move an injured swingman who makes 10 million and a 2008 (at the earliest) lotto protected pick. Oh, and if Danny had simply picked up Banks' option, we'd have him as trade bait as well. An offer of Blount, Ricky, Banks, and a first round pick equals 14 million which could net us a pretty damn good player in return, and someone definitely better than Wally. Personally, I would be willing to roll the dice on getting stuck with Blount if it meant getting a better prize this offseason. If we change thing, I'd say rescind the deal and let's see what Ricky and Blount can get us this offseason.

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)