2005 Revisited
The 2008 draft is shaping up to be a very deep draft with quality players popping up all over the place. The last time we had a draft this deep is was the year before high school kids were required to go to college for one year. Just like a number of kids bolted early in '05, this year was highlighted by a ridiculous amount of freshman in the draft. So how does it shake up? Some of the comparisons are, admittedly, tenuous at best but the drafts are surprisingly similar.
1. Andrew Bogut = Kevin Love
The quality player who will stay in the league for a long time, constantly give his team hope that he might take it to the next level, but ultimately won't ever amount to being more than a role player. While Bogut has to deal with going ahead of Deron Williams AND Chris Paul, Love has to deal with the fact that he was actually traded for Mayo.
2. Marvin Williams = Danilo Gallinari
Similar players, neither is a SF but they can't handle themselves in the 4 spot for more than limited minutes. Williams was a bust his first couple of years but has improved into a quality role player. I could see Gallinari doing the same.
3. Deron Williams = OJ Mayo
In both cases, their team traded up (Deron from #6, OJ from #5) to grab them at #3. They both have similar scouting reports: smart player, good defense, a step too slow for NBA greatness. Both proved their critics wrong and will likely be embattled in a career long comparison with a fellow lotto point guard.
4. Chris Paul = Derrick Rose
The protypical point guards, Paul came in more advanced because he had a great shot. Paul also got teammates like David West, Peja Stojakovic, and Tyson Chandler while Rose is stuck with Drew Gooden, Kirk Hinrich, and Tyrus Thomas. Rose has a chance to be a great one but right now, he has work to do if he wants to be an MVP candidate like CP3.
5. Raymond Felton = Russell Westbrook
Like Felton, Westbrook seems to have just enough flaws to keep him from being a steady point guard and he also will spend his career being known as the guy who isn't Chris Paul and Deron Williams (or in Westbrook's case, Rose and Mayo). The fact that Westbrook's coach has said he hopes Russell models his game after Rajon Rondo says all you need to know about their confidence in Westbrook's offense. Not a slight against Rondo but when you're comparing your #4 pick to a late first rounder who just finished his second year in the pros, I think it's time to lower expectations.
6. Martell Webster = Brandon Rush
The situations are completely opposite (Rush is a known commodity while Webster was an high schooler; the Blazers traded a PG to move down to get Webster and traded Rush to move up in the draft to grab a PG) but their futures could be the same. Everything about Webster and Rush makes you think they should be stars in this league but the talent and athleticism somehow never translates into being anything more than a steady 5th starter.
7. Charlie Villenueva = Michael Beasley
Beasley is a rich man's Villain but their scouting reports were strikingly similar: super talented tweener forwards with questions about attitude. Both were seen as possible distractions to their teams. I also have to say, I wouldn't be stunned if the Heat moved Beasley to get a more veteran presence alongside Dwyane Wade.
8. Channing Frye = Kosta Koufos
If you like your big men soft and shooting 18 foot jumpers, you'll love these guys.
9. Ike Diogu = Brook Lopez
Nice moves but it might not translate to the NBA. Lopez has size and a more complete game but I'm not sure he'll amount to as much as was hyped when he finished his freshman year. John Hollinger wrote in his scouting report, "All in all, it's a relatively safe pick -- I doubt he'll be a star, but at the absolute worst he's Chris Mihm." When that's what passes for a compliment, you probably should have spent your lotto pick elsewhere.
10. Andrew Bynum = Anthony Randolph
High potential prospects that immediately made you wonder whether the GM and the coach were on the same page. You just know that the last thing Phil Jackson (and Kobe) wanted was a high schooler like Bynum while Randolph isn't exactly what Don Nelson looks for in a player. Still, Bynum matured to be a possible force on both ends of the floor and I believe Randolph could do the same.
11. Fran Vazquez = Alexis Ajinca
When the Magic drafted Vazquez, the fans were disappointed and then surprised when he didn't even show up. When the Bobcats drafted Ajinca, the fans were disappointed and, not surprisingly, didn't show up to watch him.
12. Yaroslav Korolev = Joe Alexander
Young, athletic, and have no business getting drafted this high. I think Alexander will be able to kick around the league longer than Korolev but he won't make much of any impact.
13. Sean May = Mareese Speights
Sean May could have been a solid power forward in this league and had a chance to be a real threat. Unfortunately, he's basically eaten himself out of the league and has no real work ethic to speak of. Speights's potential is equally high but it's up to him whether he wants to work on it or just collect his checks and become free agent fodder at the end of his rookie deal.
14. Rashard McCants = Courtney Lee
A great scorer who really doesn't do much of anything else on the basketball court. There are rumors of defense but never on a consistent basis.
15. Antoine Wright = JR Giddens
Came in to college with a lot of hype, let it go to their head (in different ways), and never lived up to being first round picks.
16. Joey Graham = Eric Gordon
'Tweeners who seem like they have NBA games but who might just end up as end of the rotation players as their skills never really translate.
17/18. Danny Granger & Gerald Green = Donte Greene & Jerryd Bayless
Who knows, both of these guys could pan out to be borderline All-Stars like Danny Granger or they could be tantalizing busts like Gerald. Right now I put Jerryd with Gerald because they were both summer league stars who really need to learn how to play the game. Bayless is far more advanced than Gerald but when it comes to running the point, he's has almost as much to learn. Greene should be able to become a Granger-like player but needs to work on his defense and expand his offensive game beyond his shooting ability.
19. Hakim Warrick = Javale McGee
Warrick was far more polished than Mcgee when he entered the draft but Javale is a PF/C which makes his energy and raw skills more useful than someone trying to find themselves between the two forward positions. McGee has a ton of potential but I'm still seeing him as someone who is better off coming off the pine than being a full time starter.
20. Julius Hodge = George Hill
Hodge and Hill seem like they should have everything it takes to make it in the league but, for some reason, it doesn't work out. I'm not damning Hill to be out of the league as soon as Hodge but right now, I'm just not sure what kind of NBA player he'll be. (Admittedly, this comparison is a HUGE reach)
21. Nate Robinson = DJ Augustin
Mighty mites who should inspire their team but aren't exactly the kind of guy you want running the point for a playoff team. Still, I wouldn't bet against either of them being able to pull it off.
22. Jarrett Jack = Nicolas Batum
Talented enough to make you think, "this kid could be a great starter" yet flawed enough to make you think, "Man, we need to get someone better to start." Batum is younger and has far more potential but I wouldn't be stunned if he leveled out to being a nice 6th man.
23. Francisco Garcia = Roy Hibbert
Guys whose NBA careers are under the radar. They are solid but are probably better off in limited roles, be it a 5th starter for Hibbert or 6th man for Garcia.
24. Luther Head = Darrell Arthur
Solid players that could start in the NBA but whom you'd rather come off the bench.
25. Johan Petro = Robin Lopez
A good enough big man who always has you wishing he could just be a LITTLE bit better so you'd feel better about your team having to give him minutes.
26. Jason Maxiell = JJ Hickson
A nice backup big man who people seem to think is going to become more than that.
27. Linus Kleiza = Ryan Anderson
Guys with decent size who can shoot will always find room at the end of someone's rotation.
28. Ian Manhimi = Sergei Ibaka
I didn't know them before they were in the league and I probably won't ever notice when they are in the league (which Manhimi apparently is).
29. Wayne Simien = DJ White
Talented players who saw injuries sap their potential. They'll be lucky to stay in the league past their rookie contracts.
30. David Lee = Jason Thompson
Talented power forwards whose early success turned them from underrated surprises to overrated (and possibly overpaid) players.
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As for the second rounders, I'm not sure that there's a Monta Ellis in the 2008 draft but:
Mario Chalmers = Louis Williams - Talented scoring point guards.
DeAndre Jordan = Chris Taft - Hyped big men who plummeted in the draft.
Chris Douglas-Roberts = CJ Miles - Look good, can play well, but never get it together in the NBA.
Luc Mbah a Moute = Ryan Gomes - Solid players and hard workers who are overrated by their fans.
Walter Sharpe = Amir Johnson - A lot of hype and hope but they never amount to more than bench fodder.


The Knicks get Stephon Marbury & Anfernee Hardaway for Antonio McDyess, Maciej Lampe, Howard Eisley, Charlie Ward, rights to Milos Vujanic, 2004 first round pick, and a future lotto protected first round pick

Of course, Isiah still has a ways to go to match Pat Riley who isn't even showing up for some games (who missed a few games to scout college players) and barely bothers to field an actual NBA lineup. In fact, the game after Jason Williams led the team to a victory of the Bucks he sat out with a life-threatening "jammed thumb". Shawn Marion's back seems to flare up all the time and guys on ten-day contract immediately become key rotation players, often getting more minutes than the young guys who were supposed to be the future of the Heat.
At least Fran has said he wants to play for Orlando. The Milwaukee Bucks stunned many by ignoring the warnings of Yi's management that they didn't want to play in Milwaukee. In a comment that is eerily familiar to Danny Ainge regarding Kevin Garnett, the Bucks GM Larry Harris dimissed the talk as just talk and also said he thought the word was coming from the managers and not Yi himself. A day after the draft, Jianlian skipped the press conference announcing his selection and now seems like he is going to have to be shipped out. But more troubling than all of this is the fact that Jianlian made absolutely no sense for the Bucks. His skill set is somewhat similar to Charlie Villenueva and he is the last guy a team that needed defense should have selected. With Corey Brewer and Julian Wright sitting in the Green Room along with a potential star in Brandan Wright and the phone reportedly ringing with offers like Devin Harris from Dallas, Jianlian was an unnecessary gamble.
When Danny Granger and Gerald Green fell to #12, the Clippers were helpless to stop their slide. The problem was that Elgin Baylor had already promised the pick to 18 year old Yaroslav Korolev. The young Korolev was an exciting young talent who hadn't any experience against top level competition. Two years later, he still hasn't had any experience. Korolev has played a grand total of 170 minutes in his two years in the NBA. Some might say that it's too early to call the 20 year old Korolev a bust but the front office of the Clippers seem to disagree. In an unheard of move, the Clippers declined the third year option on Korolev's contract so the young man is now an unrestricted free agent. The Clippers claim that they are still confident in his skils and just want to sign him to a cheaper deal but when you give your lotto pick from two years ago a paycut, and he agrees to it, it's not looking like you made the wisest selection.
Everyone loves a fad and after Pau Gasol stormed the NBA, European players were all the rage. It didn't matter if the players were raw or obviously needed to stay in Europe for a couple of years, the hype drowned out common sense and the legend of Tskitishvili was born. The Nuggets were rebuilding and could afford to take a project instead of Caron Butler. #1 ranked high schooler Amare Stoudamire had apparently gotten a promise from Phoenix and wasn't working out for teams so why not opt for the guy you'd seen, right? After taking Tskitishvili and Nene (at #8), the Nuggets filled out their frontcourt with small forward Vincent Yarborough at #33. The frontcourt the Nuggets passed on that day was Amare, Caron, and #35 pick Carlos Boozer.
Kedrick Brown doesn't deserve to walk through life being known as a bust. It wasn't his fault. He played two years at junior college and was a fine but not highly sought after prospect. But then he caught the eye of Celtics GM Chris Wallace, who had picks #10, #11, and #21 in the 2001 draft. Much like the Trailblazers promise to Sebastian Telfair, the Brown promise went above and beyond the call of common sense. When everyone heard rumors of a promise to Brown, the assumption was that it would be the Celtics pick at #21, not #11. But no, Chris Wallace, in order to keep Brown from working out for other teams, offered up the Celtics 2nd lottery pick for Brown. Making matters more awkward is that Joe Johnson fell in the Celtics' lap at #10 so they ended up taking both Johnson and Brown, despite already having Paul Pierce. While most fans were debating which much needed point guard the Celtics would be adding (Tony Parker vs. Jamaal Tinsley vs. Omar Cook), the Celtics drafted two more swingmen. But the story doesn't end there. Later, during Brown and Johnson's rookie season, Chris Wallace struck a deal with Phoenix for Rodney Rogers and Tony Delk. The Suns were willing to take back either Johnson or Brown and let Wallace pick who he sent and who he kept. Sticking with his initial inexplicable love, Wallace opted to send Joe Johnson to Phoenix and hold onto Kedrick Brown. The choice was a disastrous one as Rodney Rogers would leave as a free agent at the end of that season while, two years later, Kedrick Brown would be nothing more than filler in the deal for Ricky Davis and Chris Mihm. Four years after Chris Wallace's promise, Kedrick Brown was out of the league. But that's not even the worst part of it. The worst part is that the reason the Celtics had the Nuggets pick that season was because they exercised their option on it. They could have taken the 11th pick that year or waited until 2002 or 2003. If Chris Wallace had shown a little patience, the 2003 draft would have featured the Celtics, and not the Nuggets, choosing between Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade in 2003.
5. Eddy Curry to New York: Eddy Curry wasn't impressing too many people with his play for the Bulls. He was solid but unspectacular on offese, invisible on the boards, and a project on defense. Coming into the league, Curry was seen as a future franchise big man and Isiah Thomas knew that those were hard to come by. He was willing to pay for Curry but because the Knicks were over the cap, the only way they could acquire the big man was a sign-and-trade. Jon Paxson held out and ended up getting Tim Thomas, Mike Sweetney, Jermanie Jackson, the 2006 Knicks pick, the right to swap 2007 picks and a couple of 2nd rounders. That's a TON to give up for a young big man and Isiah was mocked across the nation for the move. Then something happened. Tim Thomas was such a headcase in Chicago that the Bulls finally just bought him out to get rid of it. Mike Sweetney didn't improve any. And the 2006 draft turned out to be one of the worst in recent memory. Still, the 2007 pick seemed like it could be another top 2 pick but the Knicks started winning. As it stands now, Eddy Curry is playing well, Ty Thomas is barely playing, the Knicks will be swapping the 12th pick for the Bulls 22nd pick in a draft that is very deep and both teams could get someone very talented. This deal still could look like a great move for the Bulls but it isn't nearly the horrific mistake that people made it out to be.
4. Eddie Griffin to Houston: Peter Vescey could only shake his head. The New Jersey fans at the draft booed. The hugely talented Eddie Griffin, who averaged 17/10 and 4 block in his freshman year, fell to the Nets' 7th pick yet new Nets GM Rod Thorn decided to spit in Lady Luck's face by trading the stud freshman for three later picks: Richard Jefferson, Brandon Armstrong, and Jason Collins. Needless to say, the deal now looks like a steal for the Nets. Eddie Griffin lasted two season in Houston and has become a problem child who could never harness his talent. Jefferson became a key member of a two time Eastern Conference finalist. Not that Rod Thorn should get too much credit, players taken after Armstrong and Collins include: Gerald Wallace, Sam Dalembert, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, and Mehmet Okur.
3:Allen Iverson to the Nuggets: The one thing you can still argue against Billy King is that he could have done better. Still, this shockingly one-sided deal doesn't look so bad right now. The key, of course, is that the Sixers didn't do what most people expected, which was dump Andre Miller. Miller and Joe Smith have helped the young Sixers come alive and put together a great win streak. Even more importantly, Andre Iguodala has become the franchise player of the team and disappointments Sam Dalembert and Kyle Korver have re-emerged as threats. Denver, meanwhile, is clining to the 7th spot in the playoffs, are not looking like A.I. will lead them out of the first round, and most importantly, are hardly the picture of tranquility. Some reports have both George Karl and Carmelo Anthony missing 'Dre, a pure point guard. And on top of this all, the Sixers have two more picks, Denver's (18th) and Dallas' (30), in the upcoming draft, which is looking like it could be very deep with talent.
2: The Darko deals: In what has to be one of the stranger deals in basketball, the Vancouver Grizzlies, heading into their third year as a franchise and fresh off of a 14 win season, decided it would be a good idea to trade a protected draft pick for 15 year veteran, Otis Thorpe. Maybe they thought the vet could mentor their two first rounders Bryant Reeves and Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Whatever they thought, it didn't work out, Thorpe lasted 47 games in Memphis before being dealt to Sacramento for Bobby Hurley (who would be out of the league at the end of the season).
LeBron James, Drew Gooden, Tyson Chandler, Dajuan Wagner, Caron Butler, Tayshaun Prince, Richard Jefferson and Amaré Stoudemire
Here's how the Warriors have started each game:
I've always been hoping that Dajuan Wagner could make a comeback to the NBA and it looks like the Warriors are going to give him a shot. While I'm happy for Dajuan, I don't really get why the Warriors would be the ones to sign him. With Baron Davis and Monta Ellis already on the roster, they seem like they need a third PG who is more of a pure point as opposed to another scoring lead guard. I'm not sure how much run Wagner's going to get but it's good to see him back in the league.
Sitting on the pine wasn't an option for another can't-miss prospect. The former internet draft site phenom Maciej Lampe has signed to play in Russia, citing a desire to play and get better as opposed to rotting away as a 12th man. The Bulls apparently were interested but Lampe was smart enough to realize that he was not going to crack their rotation in the coming future. Lampe had one huge game but didn't really show anything in his time in the NBA. Maybe a little P.T. is all he needs but I think odds are that we won't be hearing from him again... unless the U.S. runs into Poland in an international game in which case he'll probably lead the Polacks to an upset.
There are few plans in sports worse than telling a GM that he has one year to succeed. It makes even less sense when the team is rebuilding and has young talent that probably needs time to learn the game. Did James Dolan not realize that this is pretty much the same thing that ruined the Knicks before? Scott Layden knew his time was up so he made a risky trade, giving up a lotto pick for the injured Antonio McDyess. It's moves like these that make GM's do insane go-for-broke moves like trading for Vin Baker. Do you really think that if the Knicks are struggling at the midseason point that Zeke won't mortgage the little future he has available to deal in order to get someone he hopes could help immediately?
While Dolan can fire Isiah after the season (although, I do think there is a good chance the Knicks could improve under Isiah), what are the odds that he actually hires a competent general manager? Zeke and Larry Brown may have been in the spotlight this season, but it was Dolan who put them on center stage. If Zeke fails, it will not only be a mark on his record but it also has to push Dolan to Donald Sterling levels in terms of poor ownership. On the bright side, John Nash has got to like his chance of landing another NBA job in a year. It would be nice having him around to keep the Knicks ship on the floor of the Atlantic.
So where are the C's? : The Celtics are pretty good on this one. Pierce is very much like Wade in his ability to drive and get to the line and West is solid enough at finding a lane now and then. Also, besides Raef, none of our big men spend most of their day out on the perimeter. The person who needs to learn this lesson the most is Gerald Green, who could easily devolve into a jumpshooter and not take advantage of his quickness.
2) You don't need a field general to win, but it's going to be ugly: One of the main problems the Mavs had was that they had nobody on their team to set up their offense. Every time down it looked like they had no clue what was going on. Terry was tossing up threes, Dirk was wandering around and unable to get free, Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels created offense out of necessity rather than any sort of plan. Devin Harris wasn't ready and the Mavs struggled because their best option at the point began to believe that he was the best option for the shot. In the two wins, Terry had 33 shots and 10 assists. In the four losses? 11 assists and 80 shots.
Wallets over Winning
Injuries and the Albatross
But it wasn't all the fault of the players, during the 90's, Nike basically took over the shoe world and as they did the marketing campaigns became weaker and weaker. There really hasn't been a memorable, long term ad campaign since Nike's Fun Police and even that didn't work that well because it introduced too many players and didn't showcase any individuals. Look at the shoe commercials of the early 90's: you had Mr. Robinson's Neighborhood for David Robinson, the Mars Blackmon?Jordan campaign, the Grandmama angle that made Larry Johnson's gold teeth more palatable to the American public (and likely paved the way for Tyler Perry's Madea film series), the Chris Rock Lil' Penny campain. As Nike became a virtual monopoly, the ads have become weaker. Matters weren't helped by the injuries to marquee guys like Larry Johnson and Penny, but Shaq didn't have a solid campaign. His highlight ad is still his first "Don't Fake the Funk on a Nasty Dunk" commercial.
Tired of the month long first round? Sick of watching seedings and matchups determined by division standings and conference records? Yearn for the supposedly scientific pairings of the NCAA's? Well, here's the second season for you! THE NBA TOURNAMENT! Using a top secret, barely rationale formula designed after reading the mindless ramblings of ESPN writers, we here at SoulHonky.com have come up with seedings for a conferences-be-damned style tournament ranking for the NBA.
The obvious benefactor of this is the Orlando Magic whose late season turnaround was looked upon kindly by "the committee" who granted them a 7th seed. Meanwhile, the Pacers and the Bucks are demoted to the play-in game for the right to face the Detroit Pistons.
While some people say that this might hurt conference rivalries, I still think the division rivalries will remain intact and it will make the second season more interesting to watch.