Spitballing: The Clip Show
The Question: Now what?
The Answer: Does it really matter? We're talking about the Clippers here.
The Solution: Well the first thing that needs to happen is that the Clippers need to rebrand themselves. Even if the name wasn't synonymous with losing, the team would still be named after sailboats so it's gotta go. I've always wanted a team named the Hollywood Villains but the problem there is that the Villains always lose in the end. My friend Jensen wants the team named Los Angeles De La Muerte (The Angels of Death). I like it but I'm not sure the NBA will go for it. Regardless, the team has to dump the nautical name and start fresh.
As for the roster, it all comes down to owner Donald Sterling. It's not completely insane to think that the Clippers could walk away with Vince Carter and Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire this offseason. Camby and Eric Gordon would be enough to get Vince and the Raptors/Suns probably couldn't do better than Chris Kaman, Al Thornton and the #1 pick. Baron, Vince, Z-Bo, and Bosh/Amare would be an interesting lineup, especially if they re-sign Steve Novak who would stand around the three point arc and make any team pay for double-teaming with his guy.
One problem with this deal is that Donald Sterling probably wouldn't open his wallet enough to re-sign Bosh or Amare to a second max deal so you'd be giving up the #1 pick for a one year rental. Still, if you're the Clippers, you have to think about it, don't you? Maybe you become the Florida Marlins of the NBA, going for it all for one season and then blowing it up the next.
Of course, there's also the issue of injuries. There's a very good chance that Baron, Vince, and Amare could all get hurt which would mean Donald Sterling shelled out (when including the luxury tax) around 100 million dollars and the #1 pick to watch The Z-Bo and Novak Show.
The Clippers might make one of those deals, the Vince Carter trade, but that then raises the question of whether to try to win now or rebuild. I usually side with the rebuilding process but in this case I'm just not sure what you can get for Baron or Z-Bo this year. The ideal trade is Baron and Zach for the #2 pick and expiring contracts/cap space but I can't imagine that Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley is wiling to pay tens of millions to build a team that looks an awful lot like the 2008 Clippers. I'm not even sure he'd be willing to pay for just Baron.
My ideal rebuilding plan might look something like:
1. Hold onto Zach until he has value as an expiring deal next offseason. Keep Camby for a mid-season deal or just to get his money off of the payroll.
2. Deal Baron and Al Thornton (who is apparently on the outs in LA) to Philly for Sam Dalembert, Thad Young, and Philly's #17 pick. Dalembert's deal ends at the same time as Z-Bo's.
3. Deal Chris Kaman for Kirk Hinrich. The key here is that Hinrich's salary decreases in the next couple of years while Kaman's increases in the future.
4. Draft Blake Griffin.
5. Re-sign Steve Novak.
That gives the Clips a young core of Griffin, Young, Gordon, DeAndre Jordan and whatever PG you grab at #17 along with two big of expiring contracts to play with next offseason. And Hinrich's 8 million bucks would be the only substantial contract they'd have that lasts past 2010.
But the question then is: Is that enough? Is that better than Baron, Vince Carter, Thornton, Z-Bo, and Kaman with Griffin as 6th man in his rookie season? Wouldn't it be better to move Gordon for a veteran and try to win now? They could have Baron, Vince, and Griffin as the core and next year look to deal their draft pick and Randolph's expiring contract for the missing piece. But would Baron and Vince really get the Clippers close to even the Conference Finals? Isn't this making a move to get back to mediocrity with little hope of anything more?
Honestly, I think either way you look at it, the approach is going to yield a high risk/low ceiling output. I'm not sold on Baron and Vince getting the Clippers to anywhere better than mediocrity (and a worse draft pick for their troubles) but then again, I'm not sure that the ceiling for Gordon and Griffin is any better.
It's a tough decision and right now, given Donald Sterling's lack of spending, I'd probably go with rebuilding. Restart from scratch but this time show a little financial responsibility. The Baron signing was questionable but the Z-Bo trade was inexcusable.
The sad fact, though, is that the Clippers will likely tie their hands almost immediately by dealing Camby for Hinrich. If you deal Camby instead of Kaman, then your ledger becomes a major issue because Kirk and Chris are on the books for around 20 million a year until 2012. You also give up your best veteran trade asset (Camby's expiring deal) for a backup PG. I like Hinrich as a complement to Gordon and Baron but the Clippers just don't have the cap space to spend 9 million on a backup PG. Once that deal goes down, I wouldn't be stunned if the Clips only other major acquisition was throwing the MLE at a questionable veteran like Shawn Marion of Lamar Odom.
The Clippers could make a lot of very interesting moves this offseason but unless they bring in a new regime (and I'm not sure what happened to the talk of Dunleavy Sr. getting demoted since it seems like he and his people are still in charge), they'll probably just rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic (or whatever the sailboat equivalent to the Titanic is).
