Can Danny?

The Question: Is winning a priority?

The Answer: No and No.

The Solution: When GM John Hammond said that the Bucks were going to be frugal this offseason, he should have just said that they were going to be starting rebuilding. Honestly, it's a better approach. Admit that the team needs a fresh start and fans could be interested in the youth movement. Say that you're frugal and people just think that the ownership is going to be cheap and not put a good product on the floor. Also, the Bucks need to rebuild. The Richard Jefferson/Michael Redd Bucks aren't winning jack so they should look to at least reshuffle those contracts, if not dump them outright.

The first trade that jumped out at me was the unthinkable: Zach Randolph for Richard Jefferson. The Clippers need a SF; the Bucks need a PF. But I just can't, in good faith, promote a trade for Z-Bo so I came up with another option.

Richard Jefferson and Charlie Bell for Andrei Kirilenko: AK-47's deal is the same length as Jefferson's (and a year shorter than Bell's) and he brings in a power forward who actually plays defense. The deal also cuts a million dollars off of the cap. Utah gets a backup guard and the small forward that they've been missing since... Adrian Dantley? (No offense to Byron Russell and Blue Edwards).

Now that the frontcourt is situated, it's time to take a look at the backcourt.

The shooting guard spot is owned by Michael Redd and I think I'd trade him away for little to nothing, as long as it dumped his 2010 salary. I've been supporting a Redd/McGrady trade for over a year now and I think it still makes sense.

Tracy McGrady and Kyle Lowry* for Michael Redd and Dan Gadzuric: The Bucks get a solid enough PG in Lowry and dump a year off of both Redd and Gadzooky's contracts. T-Mac might never play again which is even better for the owners who might be able to have insurance pay McGrady's 20+ million if he doesn't lace up the sneakers next season.

I know that some fans might expect more for Redd or want to wait until next year when he's an expiring deal but I don't think it works out for the Bucks. I really can't imagine there are many teams looking to get a rather one-dimensional SG who has around 35 million owed to him over the next two years. His value as an expiring contract is ruined by the fact that the Bucks might still be in frugal mode next year; if a team isn't willing to take back contracts then the expiring contract loses almost all usefulness.

And if McGrady is able to play, he's probably just as good all-around as Redd. Is it ideal? No. But I think it helps them team more than keeping Michael Redd would.

* Lowry's inclusion in the deal depends on what is going on with Ramon Sessions. If the Bucks think they can, after the draft and deals, afford to keep Sessions, then they might just take back T-Mac for Redd and Gadzuric and not spend the 2 million on Lowry. If they think Sessions is going to cost too much, then they grab Lowry in the Redd/T-Mac deal. Ideally, the Bucks keep Sessions.

As for the draft, I'd say that the main focus should be on either Demar DeRozan, Earl Clark, or Gerald Henderson. The PG's in the draft are nice but they all have as many flaws as Ramon Sessions so why not go with the devil you know? I'd consider dealing down and getting the Bulls' #16 and #26 but I think I'd rather just get the guy I want at ten than risk taking the leftover scraps later. Since DeRozan is moving up the draft, let's say that the #10 pick is Gerald Henderson.

With the second round draft pick, I'd replace Michael Redd's awkward release with Dionte Christmas.

As for Charlie Villanueva, I'd probably just let him go. He's a nice player but his flaws equal his strengths and he gives up as much as he adds to a team.

That gives the Bucks a lineup of: Sessions, Henderson, T-Mac , AK-47, and Bogut

The bench is: Luke Ridnour, Dionte Christmas,  Luc Mbah a Moute, Joe Alexander, Malik Allen, Francisco Elson, and possibly Ersan Ilyasova.

The Bucks might not be pretty this year but this time next year, their moves won't be determined by the luxury tax (and adding another high lotto pick won't hurt). 

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:56 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Question: Is there life after Bosh?

The Answer: Yes. And it can't be much worse than this season.

The Solution:I can't believe that Chris Bosh is going to re-sign with the Raptors this season which means that they will try to trade him to a team that he'll be happy to re-up with. At the same time, if they are dealing Bosh, they might as well try to deal Jose Calderon while they are at it because there's no need to keep a 27 year old point guard on a rebuilding team. Especially one that can't play a lick of defense.

However, the first issue that the Raptors have to deal with is Bosh. He can essentially veto any deal by saying he won't re-sign immediately. Not many teams are going to give up fair value for a guy who might be a one year rental.  Minnesota and Golden State could make solid offers but is Bosh really going to opt to go to either team for five years? Minnesota is the team that wasted Kevin Garnett's career while Golden State's backcourt of Ellis, Maggette, and Jackson isn't all that enticing for a big man.

Then there's the economy. Portland could go after Bosh but they also might prefer to stick with their guys who are still on rookie contracts or are only looking at the first round max deal. Even someone like Paul Allen is pinching pennies right about now and Bosh on a second max contract might scare people off. 

While some teams like Oklahoma City and the LA Clippers have interesting offers, I think the most likely destination is Miami. Not only can they get a talent like Michael Beasley in the deal but the deal could also include Jermaine O'Neal's expiring deal which could make a three team deal possible. Yes, there's something a bit embarrassing about trading your franchise player for a guy you just traded to Miami but this might be the best of the available option for the Raptors.

Before that deal goes down, the Raptors would want to figure out what they were doing with Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani. For Calderson, the best deal could be:

Jose Calderon and #9 to Sacramento for Andres Nocioni, the #4 and #23 picks: If Ricky Rubio is gone, the Kings don't really have an obvious option at the fourth pick and most of the PG's will still be around at #8 so dropping down doesn't hurt them that much. I'd then try to move down in the draft and deal the #4 pick for the #6 and #28.

That leaves Andrea Bargnani. If Orlando wants to re-sign Hedo Turkoglu, they won't be able to re-sign Martin Gortat and they also might not be able to afford Mickeal Pietrus anymore. And as great as Pietrus has been in these playoffs, I think Courtney Lee might be ready to fill his role next season. Still, I'm not sure how much sense that makes for the Raptors. The better move might be:

Andrea Bargnani and Marcus Banks in a sign-and-trade for Josh Childress: The Hawks replace Zaza Pachulia and add a C/PF who'd be a good complement with Al Horford. The Raptors add a young, defensive minded swingman who would be a nice defensive-minded swingman.

With Nocioni and Childress flanking Beasley, the Rapz can move forward with their deal. It's hard to know what type of deal could come out of this without real inside knowledge on which teams are looking to outright dump players. This might never happen but I'd either look at the #4 and JO for Emeka Okafor and a sign and trade of Raymond Felton or hope that things have gotten so bad for Andrew Bynum in LA that some sort of deal of JO and #4 could get the young big man.

If the Bosh deal looks imminent, I think the best deal might be something like:

Raptors get Beasley, Mario Chalmers, Wilson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Q Richardson, #8 pick

Knicks get Jermaine O'Neal, #6, #23 pick

Heat get Chris Bosh and Jason Kapono

The Knicks dump an extra year of Curry's contract and also leap ahead of Golden State to secure their draft target Stephon Curry while the Raptors get back talented youngster Wilson Chandler (another good complement to Beasley) for their trouble. Again, this might not be the best option with JO's contract but it might be the most reasonable.

With the picks, the Raptors can make a number of different moves and I might trade down again but for now I'd take a PG like Tyreke Evans (or Jonny Flynn) with the #8 and maybe take a flyer on Victor Clavor with the late first rounder.

In free agency, the Raptors could make an offer for someone like Marcin Gortat, who I don't think the Magic will be able to retain if they want to re-sign Hedo Turkoglu and not pay a ton in luxury tax.

The rebuilding Raptors look like this:

Starters: Mario Chalmers, Josh Childress, Wilson Chandler, Michael Beasley, Marcin Gortat

Bench: Tyreke Evans, Roko Ukic, Andres Nocioni, Kris Humphries, Victor Claver, Eddy Curry, Patrick O'Bryant.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Question: Will they get LeBron?

The Answer: Will they get anyone?

The Solution: Wait and see. The Knicks have been clearing cap space to go after the bumper crop of free agents in 2010 but I have a feeling that a lot of the best players might be re-signing this offseason. Granted, the 2010 class is so loaded that the Knicks will likely get someone but I can't imagine they they are thrilled by the prospect of getting guys like Joe Johnson and Josh Howard.

As for this offseason, there's not much to do. They have expiring contracts but they'd rather have the cap space than a player. They can't really get into the early bird bidding because they don't have anything to offer in a trade. Toronto will not be dealing Bosh for expiring deals and Danilo Gallinari. Two of their best youngsters are free agents and I'm not sure either will be back. David Lee is pricing himself out of New York (although I think he'll soon find that nobody is offering him what he thinks he's worth) while Nasty Nate Robinson kind of seems like he'd rather leave.

Most people even think that the draft is a given. They'll take Stephon Curry if he's around. I think they'd be better off taking Jonny Flynn (or a number of other PG's) but that's really the only question about the offseason. There was some talk of Eddy Curry going to Charlotte but there's not really a contract there that the Knicks would want. 

This is a lost season for Knicks fans as they look forward to bringing in a top draft pick along with their top free agents in 2010.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Question: Is the soap opera over?

The Answer: Doesn't seem to be.

The Solution: Unfortunately, the solution is to force the team to be sold to new ownership and have the new ownership bring in new management but that's not going to happen so the Warriors are going to have to work with what they have.

The soap opera that was Golden State last year was epitomized just this week when the team's PR guy confessed to planting a story on a blog. People were reacting negatively to the Warriors teleconference with season ticket owners (or, at least, they didn't like the reports that were coming out about it) on a site and the PR guy thought the best move was to post under a pseudonym, pretending to be a random fan, and say something to give the conversation a positive spin. Like most everything the Warriors have done lately, the move was handled poorly and was a big risk for almost zero payoff. Why not post under his name? Why even bother with the online quibbling? It was a move that made zero sense and left the team with egg on their face.

On the bright side, the team does indeed have some talent so things are all terrible. How the talent fits together (especially under Don Nelson) is a different story altogether. My first trade option of Andris Biedrins for Kevin Love wasn't met with much approval but I have to say that I still like. Admittedly, throwing in Kelenna Azubuike was too much but I'm still for the deal as an option. I like the front court rotation of Love, Anthony Randolph, and Rony Turiaf and I think the Warriors might be better off with Love's rookie contract as they are probably close to owner Chris Cohan's spending limit.

The biggest problem with this offseason is that Cohan's spending limit and the lack of expiring deals means that the Warriors would have to overpay for anything. The Celtics might be willing to trade Ray Allen but the amount of talent that it would take to convince the C's ownership to take back the contract would likely be more than the Warriors are willing to give up.

The #2 pick is for sale but if the Grizz really love Thabeet than it would likely cost the Warriors Andris Biedrins. And even if they did finagle a #2, Marc Gasol, Marko Jaric deal out of the Grizz, replacing Biedrins with Gasol just makes a weak defensive frontcourt even weaker. You'd have to LOVE Rubio to make that happen. (And I wouldn't be stunned if the Grizz wanted more if they were giving up Gasol). 

The main target is Chris Bosh but a) would Cohan pay him a second max contract and b) would Bosh even agree to re-up with the Warriors? The team has been such a mess that I could see him refusing to re-sign and demanding a deal to somewhere else. There's always Amare but I'm not sure if he's really the kind of attitude you want nor do I think his injury history is that of someone to whom you want to pay a guaranteed 20 million a year.

With everyone looking to cut costs rather than add, I think the Warriors hands might just be tied and they'll have to stand pat for the year.

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Question: Are the Wolves on the rise?

The Answer: Yes, but just to the late lottery.

The Solution: While some people seem to be hyping the Wolves as an up-and-coming team, I'm just not seeing it right now. I've never liked the Big Al Jefferson/Kevin Love combo in the frontcourt and still don't think that it's a good mix. I'd say that Randy Foye is the kind of guy who puts up good numbers on a bad team but his numbers aren't even THAT good. The point guard position is a disaster and they still haven't found a small forward to hold down the position. They do have some expiring contracts so maybe they can make something happen.

(To start, I feel like I should lead off by saying that I don't think there's any way that San Antonio deals Tony Parker for anything short of Kevin Love and even then I doubt it happens.)

The first decision that should be made is which big man to choose. I'd opt for Big Al. Even though he can never seem to stay healthy or ever work that hard on defense when he is healthy, he's just the more dominant big man. Love is a worker but I don't think he'll ever be a potential All-Star like Jefferson.

So then what can you really expect to get for Love? I'd try to go after guys like Caron Butler or Andre Iguodala for Love and Mike Miller but I doubt that would happen. The deals I might look at would essentially even out to be: #6, Kevin Love, Brian Cardinal, and Mike Miller for Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson, and Kelenna Azuibuike.

I think Love and Cardinal for Biedrins and Azubuike works out about right. The Wolves give up a perfect fit for Don Nelson's system and get back a workhorse big man who is a better fit with Al Jefferson. They then move the #6 and Mike Miller for Richard Jefferson. I'm not a huge fan of RJ and there might be better deals to be made but this is the kind of deal I'd look for: getting a quality player on a salary dump for Brian Cardinal and the #6 pick. This draft is such a crap shoot that getting a legit player for pick is a deal that any team should probably be happy to take. The Bucks make the deal to cut salary and add some youth to their squad (which needs to start rebuilding).

That would give the Wolves: Biedrins, A. Jefferson, R. Jefferson, Azubuike, and Foye. 

I'm still not very happy with Foye but I'm really not sure how many legit PG's are available out there, especially in return for Randy Foye. The best option might be to offer a contract to Raymond Felton or Jarrett Jack or try to grab a PG at the #18 pick. Make Foye the super sub.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I'm sure there are some foreign PG's who might surprise us and turn out to be worth a first round pick but here's my take on the top 10 point guards in the 2009 draft. Some guys were hard to gauge because I haven't seen enough of them. This isn't necessarily where I think people will go and in some cases, I'd feel comfortable trading down in the deal because I know my preferred guy would fall while some PG's with more upside will get grabbed up earlier.

1. Ricky Rubio: This is not to say that Rubio is a can't miss prospect; the kid is already injury prone and has a set shot so nothing's certain. That being said, he has held his own against pros, had good size and fundamentals, and plays defense. Could he turn out to be the new Jason Kidd? Sure, but the odds are just as good that he's the next Marko Jaric too. It would have been interesting to see him in last year's draft or next year's with John Wall but he picked his spot perfectly and got into a weak draft so he's the #1 PG and the #2 prospect overall. I really like him in Minnesota but I'm not sure if he'd be willing to play there. The Clippers would be a nice destination but I'd probably go with Griffin at #1 and I'm not sure how they can go about getting the #2 pick.

2. Tyreke Evans: I'm pretty certain that Evans is the second best point guard in the draft. The problem, however, is that his style of play requires he be one of the best players on his team and I'm not sure if he is THAT good. Evans dominates the ball and works best when he's the focal point of the team's offense. Unfortunately, his shot isn't that great and his decision making might be even worse. He's seem to be a great fit for Sacramento which is chock full of supporting players.

3.  Ty Lawson: This is high for Lawson but I think he gets dropped down in drafts because of his lack of upside. He seems like the kind of point guard that will help a team win even if he doesn't win himself a lot of fans. He'll never be perfect and people will always probably want a taller guard but Lawson seems like he works hard (he's improved his shot each year in college) and will be the facilitator that a team like Milwaukee would love.

4. Eric Maynor: Maynor's the toughest call because I've seen so little of him but he just seems like a guy who's willing to work to win. He has good size, solid enough defense, and it really seems like success is up to how much he wants it.

5. Jeff Teague: Teague's biggest issue is that he's not a pure point guard which is why it's a good thing he entered the draft. He might not be 100% ready but he probably wasn't going to work on his point skills at Wake Forest since the team needed his scoring.

6. Johnny Flynn: Flynn seems like he could be a Rajon Rondo type player. He might not be the rebounder that Rondo is but he's a better shooter and could be just as good on defense. The biggest issue might be that he's somewhat like Tyreke Evans in that he dominates the ball and often plays out of control. Also, his three point shot is questionable.    

7. Brandon Jennings: Jennings is potentially the best point guard in this draft but he just reminds me too much of Sebastian Telfair right now. His three point shot must not have passed customs as he was abysmal this season. Still, he's a super athlete, has decent height (but needs to fill out), and has all the makings of a superb point guard. It would be hard for a team to pass him up which is why I think it's better for teams to trade down and try to add picks or a player and then grab one of the other less acclaimed PG's on this list. Portland might want to try to trade up to get him. They have enough players that Jennings could take his time to learn the position and improve his shooting before taking the reigns over full time.

8. Jrue Holiday: Holiday has the height and coachability but I'm really not sure what else he really brings to the table. His defense is supposd to be solid but I'm not sure if he can really keep quicker PG's in front of him. He really reminds me of a poor man's Shaun Livingston (pre-injury) and Shaun wasn't really blowing anyone away in his first few years. Worst case scenario, Holiday could be a smart role player ala Josh Childress but I'm not sure that's what a team looking for a PG in the lottery really wants.

9. Patty Mills: Mills wasn't that great in college but he looked very good against the US team (when he was playing for Australia). He's more of a scoring guard but I think that he's the kind of guy who could, at the very least, stick around the league as a scoring backup PG.

10. Darren Collison: Collison should make his money on the defensive end. He probably won't ever be a starting point guard but he'd be a good option for any team looking for someone to spell their starter.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Question: What happened?

The Answer: An over-achieving team came down to Earth.

The Solution: While I'm not thrilled about the prospects of the Sacramento Kings, I'm completely lost as to what the Wizards can do this year. They have arguably the worst contract in the NBA with Gilbert Arenas's 5 year, around 90 million dollars. Antawn Jamison put up stats but looked completely disinterested; not a good look when he has three years and 40 million dollars left on his new deal. On the bright side, they have three mid-sized expiring deals in Etan Thomas, Mike James, and Brendan Haywood but they don't really have any very impressive young talent (although I did like the way Javale McGee played last year) and the fifth pick isn't worth much so any deal would have to be a straight salary dump.

Arenas's contract is as untradeable as they get (which means there always might be some idiot who'll take it) so I wouldn't plan on that going anywhere. Jamison could be moved but I'm not sure who's really fired up about adding his contract the year before the 2010 free agent market. Perhaps a swap with Philly's Elton Brand could work. The best chance they have of making a deal would be to swap him with Caron Butler. The problem, as I've stated before, is that not many people are going to be interested in spending 30 million on the core of the worst team in the Eastern Conference.

If the Bucks are looking to dump Michael Redd, perhaps Etan Thomas, Mike James, and the #5 pick would work. They probably could grab Mike Dunleavy Jr. but I think I'd rather roll the dice with the draft pick.

Everything rests on the knee of Gilbert Arenas. If he can't come back, I don't think there's really anything that's going to save the Wizards from another year at the top of the lottery.

Posted by SoulHonky at 07:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Question: Is there any hope for Sacramento?

The Answer: Not really.

The Solution: Beno Udrih has become the poster child for the Kings' miserable season but let's be real, this team isn't good. Kevin Martin isn't someone you can really build a team around because of his lack of passing skills and defense. He's a third star. Spencer Hawes was supposed to be the post player of the future but in this past season he actually jacked up more three than Udrih did. Jason Thompson is solid but I don't think he'll ever be anything more than that.

If they truly believe that Ricky Rubio is a difference maker, I think they should offer up Thompson and the #4 to get him. The Rubio, Martin, Hawes core could make for a very interesting running team, especially with a guy like Nocioni alongside them at the PF spot. But is that really going to make a difference? Is that team going to compete in the West?

I would look to shake things up completely. Maybe move Martin and Nocioni to Philly for Elton Brand and Thaddeus Young. See what I could get for Hawes and Thompson and if there's any way that I can put one of those guys with Beno Udrih in order to dump Beno's contract. I'd trade down in the draft, if not out of it completely.

Spitballing, I'd suggest my two go-to targets: Philly and New Jersey:

Martin and Nocioni for Brand and Young: The Sixers get a starting SG to team with Iggy as well as a PF who's a better fit for the running game. They also get rid of the Elton Brand mistake. The Kings add a veteran PF and a promising young SF.

Jason Thompson, #4 pick, Kenny Thomas's expiring deal, and filler for Vince Carter and the #11 pick: The Nets dump their last big contract and get a young power forward to team with Brook Lopez and move up to get James Harden. The Kings add a marquee name whose contract isn't as bad as most people make it out to be since there's a team option on the final year (in 2011-12). The filler would have to be someone in a sign-and-trade; I doubt NJ is interested in Francisco Garcia's contract.

Also, I might look at deals like:

Francisco Garcia and the #28 for Jamaal Tinsley and the #13: I'm not sure if the Pacers are this desperate to get rid of Jamaal Tinsley but I'd look to see if there couldn't be some sort of deal made with the Pacers.

Split the MLE on guys like Anthony Parker, Leon Powe and Quinton Ross. Maybe not those guys specifically but add some veteran backups.

That would give the Kings a starting lineup of: Hawes, Brand, Thad Young, Vince, and whichever PG they take at #11 or maybe Jamaal Tinsley who was good enough when he did play in Indy. (And he's an expiring deal after next year so he'll have some trade value).

While I'll readily admit that that plan is highly unlikely and not without its risks, the worst thing the Kings could do is sit back and repeat what they've done the last few years: reach for someone in the draft, overpay a couple of veterans, and then just outright dump their worst contracts for nothing. Even when it works out, the team is still a sub-.500 squad. And while the youth movement is OK, I think it would be better to sell high. Even if they can move up to get Rubio, the kid will take a couple years to mature and, unfortunately, I doubt if Kings fans have that kind of time. A couple more lean years and the Maloof's might try to hightail it out of Sactown.

The Kings have one of the best fanbases in all of basketball so I'd like to see the Maloof's go out and try to bring in a winning squad. It won't be easy but the status quo isn't working, the lottery couldn't have gone worse, and there simply isn't all that much hope on the horizon. The PA announcer should be imploring the front office to do what it's asked Sacramento's fans to do: Make some noise!

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Question: Is it time to stop adding youth?

Answer: There's no rush but they should at least make an attempt at adding some talented veterans.

Solution: With roughly seventeen million in cap space along with a couple of mid-sized expiring deal, the Thunder should be major players this offseason. Is Jeff Green, #3 pick and expiring contracts enough to get Chris Bosh? Because Bosh is from relatively nearby Dallas, Texas, he might be more likely to decide to re-sign with the Thunder than some other free agents. The Raptors might like the deal because they'd land Green, a forward who would complement Andrea Bargnani (who actually showed some signs of being a solid player this last season). Grabbing Hasheem Thabeet alongside Green would help bolster their defense as well.

If not Bosh, the Thunder could try for Andrew Bynum, Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer or any of the other big names on the market. The easiest deal, however, might be the one they already made - Tyson Chandler. They could get Chandler for nothing and still have the expiring deals and #3 pick in order to make a move for a shooting guard. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Thunder could add Vince Carter and Chandler without touching their core of Westbrook, Durant, and Green.

If they can't move the pick for a veteran before draft day, I'd either draft Rubio or (if Ricky's gone) trade down. I think a deal for Minnesota's #6 and #18 makes the most sense. The Thunder could add a SG and C, maybe grabbing two one-and-done prospects, Demar DeRozan and BJ Mullens. Mullens was a major disappointment at Ohio State but I think he has a higher ceiling than Thabeet and I'd rather roll the dice on him at #18 than grab Thabeet at #3.

I know some people might just want to go with the last deal and add youth and keep clearing cap space but I think the Thunder should try to make a move to start winning games. This draft just isn't that strong and even someone like Rubio is going to take a couple years to really fit in. If they can add veteran talent, even aging talent like Chander and Carter, I think the Thunder have to go for it.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Question: Can Mike Conley Jr., OJ Mayo, and Rudy Gay be the backcourt of a winning team?

The Answer: Not without a great big man. And even then...

The Solution: This draft is turning into a nightmare for the Grizzlies. Ricky Rubio doesn't want to play in Memphis and I don't think many people in Memphis, outside of the Grizz front office, are that fired up about Hasheem Thabeet. There are countless roster options available to the Grizzlies because of their cap space, expiring contracts, and #2 pick but who knows how much owner Michael Heisley is willing to pay?

Would the man who dumped Pau Gasol really be willing to pay a max deal to Carlos Boozer or take on Elton Brand's contract from the Sixers?  I considered a deal of #2, Rudy Gay, and Darko for #5, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison but I couldn't imagine being able to sell Heisley on spending 30 million for the core of the second worst team in the NBA. (They weren't even the best at being terrible.). The ideal Memphis free agent (quality player who won't break the bank) would be Paul Millsap but I'd assume that the Jazz would match any reasonable offer (just as the Hawks matched the Grizz's offer for Josh Smith last season). The latest rumblings out of Los Angeles made me think that a deal for Bynum could work. Yes, he makes a lot of money but if you're going to waste the pick on Thabeet, why not get a guy who can defend AND score?

 Right now, I'd probably pull the trigger on the Bynum deal, shipping the #2 pick for Bynum. The Lakers can get Rubio or Thabeet while also dump some salary so they can re-sign Ariza and maybe add a free agent. I'd also look to see if the Hawks were interested in a Gasol/Darko-for-Josh Smith type swap. Gasol helps move Al Horford to the PF spot and Darko being an expiring deal gives them a better shot at re-signing Marvin Williams, Mike Bibby, and perhaps even bringing back Josh Childress.

That'd give you: Conley, OJ, Rudy, Josh Smith, and Bynum. There's definitely a lot of risk involved in that lineup but if it works out, the Grizz will finally be headed in the right direction. Also, I just don't have that much faith in Rubio or Thabeet and have even less hope that a legit free agent is going to choose to come to Memphis.

Even with all of the issues surrounding the Grizzlies, this is an offseason in which they should be able to make some noise. If they come out of it with just Thabeet and some second-rate signings, it would be yet another indictment against Chris Wallace as a GM. Yes, Michael Heisley isn't helping matters but Wallace has too many assets at his disposal to not be able to work something out.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Question: Now what?

The Answer: Does it really matter? We're talking about the Clippers here.

The Solution: Well the first thing that needs to happen is that the Clippers need to rebrand themselves. Even if the name wasn't synonymous with losing, the team would still be named after sailboats so it's gotta go. I've always wanted a team named the Hollywood Villains but the problem there is that the Villains always lose in the end. My friend Jensen wants the team named Los Angeles De La Muerte (The Angels of Death). I like it but I'm not sure the NBA will go for it. Regardless, the team has to dump the nautical name and start fresh.

As for the roster, it all comes down to owner Donald Sterling. It's not completely insane to think that the Clippers could walk away with Vince Carter and Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire this offseason. Camby and Eric Gordon would be enough to get Vince and the Raptors/Suns probably couldn't do better than Chris Kaman, Al Thornton and the #1 pick. Baron, Vince, Z-Bo, and Bosh/Amare would be an interesting lineup, especially if they re-sign Steve Novak who would stand around the three point arc and make any team pay for double-teaming with his guy.

One problem with this deal is that Donald Sterling probably wouldn't open his wallet enough to re-sign Bosh or Amare to a second max deal so you'd be giving up the #1 pick for a one year rental. Still, if you're the Clippers, you have to think about it, don't you? Maybe you become the Florida Marlins of the NBA, going for it all for one season and then blowing it up the next.

Of course, there's also the issue of injuries. There's a very good chance that Baron, Vince, and Amare could all get hurt which would mean Donald Sterling shelled out (when including the luxury tax) around 100 million dollars and the #1 pick to watch The Z-Bo and Novak Show.

The Clippers might make one of those deals, the Vince Carter trade, but that then raises the question of whether to try to win now or rebuild. I usually side with the rebuilding process but in this case I'm just not sure what you can get for Baron or Z-Bo this year. The ideal trade is Baron and Zach for the #2 pick and expiring contracts/cap space but I can't imagine that Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley is wiling to pay tens of millions to build a team that looks an awful lot like the 2008 Clippers. I'm not even sure he'd be willing to pay for just Baron.

My ideal rebuilding plan might look something like:

1. Hold onto Zach until he has value as an expiring deal next offseason. Keep Camby for a mid-season deal or just to get his money off of the payroll.

2. Deal Baron and Al Thornton (who is apparently on the outs in LA) to Philly for Sam Dalembert, Thad Young, and Philly's #17 pick. Dalembert's deal ends at the same time as Z-Bo's.

3. Deal Chris Kaman for Kirk Hinrich. The key here is that Hinrich's salary decreases in the next couple of years while Kaman's increases in the future.

4. Draft Blake Griffin.

5. Re-sign Steve Novak.

That gives the Clips a young core of Griffin, Young, Gordon, DeAndre Jordan and whatever PG you grab at #17 along with two big of expiring contracts to play with next offseason. And Hinrich's 8 million bucks would be the only substantial contract they'd have that lasts past 2010.

But the question then is: Is that enough? Is that better than Baron, Vince Carter, Thornton, Z-Bo, and Kaman with Griffin as 6th man in his rookie season? Wouldn't it be better to move Gordon for a veteran and try to win now? They could have Baron, Vince, and Griffin as the core and next year look to deal their draft pick and Randolph's expiring contract for the missing piece. But would Baron and Vince really get the Clippers close to even the Conference Finals? Isn't this making a move to get back to mediocrity with little hope of anything more?

Honestly, I think either way you look at it, the approach is going to yield a high risk/low ceiling output. I'm not sold on Baron and Vince getting the Clippers to anywhere better than mediocrity (and a worse draft pick for their troubles) but then again, I'm not sure that the ceiling for Gordon and Griffin is any better.

It's a tough decision and right now, given Donald Sterling's lack of spending, I'd probably go with rebuilding. Restart from scratch but this time show a little financial responsibility. The Baron signing was questionable but the Z-Bo trade was inexcusable.

The sad fact, though, is that the Clippers will likely tie their hands almost immediately by dealing Camby for Hinrich. If you deal Camby instead of Kaman, then your ledger becomes a major issue because Kirk and Chris are on the books for around 20 million a year until 2012. You also give up your best veteran trade asset (Camby's expiring deal) for a backup PG. I like Hinrich as a complement to Gordon and Baron but the Clippers just don't have the cap space to spend 9 million on a backup PG. Once that deal goes down, I wouldn't be stunned if the Clips only other major acquisition was throwing the MLE at a questionable veteran like Shawn Marion of Lamar Odom.

The Clippers could make a lot of very interesting moves this offseason but unless they bring in a new regime (and I'm not sure what happened to the talk of Dunleavy Sr. getting demoted since it seems like he and his people are still in charge), they'll probably just rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic (or whatever the sailboat equivalent to the Titanic is).

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I hope that Wyc and the other owners of the Celtics are watching these NBA Conference Finals because they help show how winning the the league is very much connected to how much you're willing to spend. I hope they would have learned this at watching the backups of the Celtics struggle and the squad falling just short to last year's success (which came with a heftier price tag).

One thing that all four teams have in common is that they didn't shy away from the big deal because of salary implications. The Nuggets knew they needed to make a chance and they didn't let their previous mistakes (like K-Mart's huge deal) prevent them from trading Allen Iverson's cap saving expiring contract. They gladly brought in Chauncey Billups's longer deal. The Lakers did the same when they dumped Kwame Brown's expiring contract for Pau Gasol and the Cavs didn't think twice about adding Mo Williams' salary.

The squad that hits closer to home, though, is the one that closed out the Celtics at home. The Orlando Magic had a big payroll and one of their key players (Hedo Turkoglu) will be a free agent this coming off-season but they still went out and spent the MLE on Mickeal Pietrus. I don't know if I'd go so far to call him the difference to the entire series but I have to think that if the tables were turned and the Celtics had re-signed James Posey and the Magic pinched pennies and didn't add Pietrus, that the series probably would have add a  different feel to it.

Standing pat or only going after veteran minimum type players just isn't going to cut it. The Celtics need to revamp their bench and that's going to cost money. If the owners aren't willing to spend that type of cash, I'm afraid that we'll watch our veterans get run down yet again and even our younger guys like Rondo complain about tired legs. 

The salary cap might save the NBA from becoming as lopsided as Major League Baseball in terms of the power of the dollar but it doesn't mean that the bottom line isn't completely disconnected from the financial bottom line. Winning costs money; will the Celtics be willing to spend enough of it this offseason to get back on top? 

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Draftniks couldn't have been happier with the way the lottery worked out. This draft now has a lot of possible moves at the top of the draft that could shake things up. Next week, I'll start going through the possible offseasons for every NBA squad but for now I'll just give some quick thoughts off the top of my head.

Blake Griffin is the prize but will he land in LA? A Gordon/Thornton/Griffin trio could be a nice young group but I'm not sure if that's really the foundation of a winning squad. Thornton has an especially bad year, ending with him getting screamed at by owner Donald Sterling. More importantly though, the Clippers have been looking to dump their two recently acquired max deals (Baron and Z-Bo) and the #1 pick could help them dump those contract.

One example could be Baron Davis and the #1 pick for Darko Milcic, Greg Buckner, the #2 and #28 pick. Talent-wise, it's a no-brainer for the Grizz. They add a point guard and power forward (in Griffin) and have Conley as insurance in case Davis continues to lollygag through his contract. The Clippers get an expiring deal in Darko, a small contract (4 million) with two years left, and Ricky Rubio to take over the point. They could also push for Darrell Arthur and have Rubio, Gordon, Thornton, Arthur, and Kaman. It's not great but it's a step in the right direction.

I'd probably just hold onto Zach Randolph. In one year he'll be an expiring contract and easier to move. No need to lose a shot at Blake Griffin for that.

Now some people might be stunned that I'm even suggesting dropping down in the draft to dump contracts but there's something about Griffin that makes me nervous. He seems like a good player but I'm not sure he's a guy who is a #1 star. He seems more like a building block than a foundation. He's by far the best player in this draft but he's not someone that I'd deem untouchable.

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As for the Grizzlies, they also find themselves in an odd position. Mike Conley Jr. showed some improvement this season and OJ Mayo seems like a player who is better when the ball is in his hands so I'm not sure whether they would want Rubio. Having Marc Gasol on the team could help the Spanish kid's transition but will he fit? I wouldn't be stunned if they looked to move the pick. I also think that they need to seriously start trying to win games now if they want to survive. The Baron Davis deal would do that.

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The Thunder would probably like to move up but they don't really have anything that I think they'd be willing to deal. They'll probably hang tight and grab Hasheem Thabeet to anchor their defense. OK City is perfect for the big man because he doesn't have to worry about scoring, there's another defensive big man who can handle quicker bigs (Jeff Green), and they have a good enough center in Nenad Krstic who can hold the starting spot for a year until the rook gets acclimated to the pro game.

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Obviously, the big loser was Sacramento. They missed out on Griffin and Rubio and have a wide open field of point guards to judge. While nobody knows where any of the point guards end up, one thing is for certain: none of them look worthy of the 4th pick in an NBA draft. Perhaps they could offer Jason Thompson and the #4 pick for Rubio. The Grizz might actually go for that. Thompson would fill the four spot and they could roll the dice on someone like DerMarr Derozen at four.

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Washington is another team that could look to dump salary in a deal. The Antawn Jamison and Gilbert Arenas signings worked as well as everyone expected so they'd probably be happy to get rid of either of those two. I'm really not sure what they do if they hold onto the pick; either grab James Harden or Jordan Hill. Neither guy seems like a future star but they should be hard working players who find a role and hang around the league.

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Minnesota seems like a good fit for Stephen Curry. With two post players like Big Al Jefferson and Kevin Love, they could use a point guard who can shoot. If James Harden falls here, he almost seems like a given since he's the kind of shooting guard who could help run the offense while Randy Foye focuses on scoring (ala John Salmons and Ben Gordon in Chicago).

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Golden State was probably hoping to win the lotto to help add another trade asset. I have to believe that the Warriors are going to go crazy this offseason, trying to use their young assets to bring in a star player or two. The downside, of course, is that all of their players are on pretty significant contracts so they'll probably have to overpay a bit to get it done. If they don't deal it, there's something about Chase Buddinger that makes him seem like the perfect fit for Nellyball.

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New York has already been rumored to be after Stephen Curry and that's not a bad fit. He could fill the role Nasty Nate Robinson thrived in, if they don't re-sign Nate. On paper, Earl Clark would be a great fit for D'Antoni's system but he seems like a poor man's Lamar Odom to me; tons of talent but doesn't bring it every night. Teammate Terrence Williams seems like a Tim Thomas type.

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Clark also seems like he might be the kind of guy that Bryan Colangelo would like but this is another team that could be in fire sale mode. If they move Chris Bosh, I have to imagine that they'll probably also look to move the aging Jose Calderon as well. The trade winds will be blowing in Canada this offseason and which way they blow will determine who gets drafted here.

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The Bucks are also a team looking to shed salary. And after they took Joe Alexander last season and Yi the year before that, I'm not even going to pretend to know which scrub they'll take this year.

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If the move to Brooklyn really seems like it isn't going to happen soon, the Nets might look to move some of their draft picks and try to start winning again. LeBron isn't going to a Jersey team that might not move to Brooklyn and could actually be sold and move to  Seattle or Kansas City. With Devin Harris and Brook Lopez, the Nets have two good young prospects alongside Vince Carter. This draft is low on power forwards and reaching for Dajuan Blair would be a mistake. The Nets should probably hope that Demarr DeRozan is still available or else they'll have to choose between the two Tobacco Roaders, Wayne Ellington or Gerald Henderson.

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The Bobcats will likely go after Henderson if he's available. Local prospect, heady game. 

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The Pacers? Did I mention teams are looking to shed salary? I'm sure they'd love to use this pick to dump Mike Dunleavy Jr. I'd like to see Jarrett Jack get a shot at starting full time so these guys should also look for a shooting guard. Because of this, don't be surprised if you see some 2's start to shoot up the draft board and shake up the order of things.

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And finally it's the Suns. This team needs to be blown up. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

After watching the Celtics get blown out in pathetic fashion and then experiencing a 5.0 earthquake, I have to say that I really felt like the sky was falling and I, of course, wanted to blow up the Celtics roster. Part of me feels like it is time to sell high on Rondo and try to find something more in a traditional point guard. I also wanted to move Perk who always annoys me and thought about dealing Ray who is an expiring contract this offseason. We might be able to pull a reverse Seattle deal and get a later pick but more useful player than Wally World.

One trade that I came up with quickly was Rondo to Minnesota along with Tony Allen for Kevin Love (and, ideally, the Celtics' #1 pick). If Minny gets Thabeet, they can afford to move Love and Rondo is the PG that they've been missing since Chauncey Billups fled town. (Rondo, being a restricted free agent after next season, wouldn't be able to leave so easily). The Celtics add a PF who would be able to spell KG and play alongside him at times. He'd be a great complement to both Garnett and Perkins.

But then the debate about PF's and PG's comes up. It's often pointed out that the great point guards of the NBA often end up ringless. And as impressive as Rondo was in the Chicago series, there's just something about him having a more influential role in the offense that makes me uncomfortable.

On the other hand, this season has seen more second round big men step up and become legit PF's. Even Big Baby improved his game to the point that he was a legit starting PF to some extent. Paul Millsap might have made Carlos Boozer expendable. David Lee wants at least 10 million dollars a year but why pay that when you might be able to find someone just as effective in the second round or floating around for less money? 

It's a tough call and right now I'm in no mood to make pronouncements since I'll probably regret them when I snap out of it next week. But right now, I think there needs to be at least one major deal if the C's want to protect both their present and their future. While it's nice to say that KG being back would have made the difference, KG is getting older and if we can't afford a better backup who can spell him more often (and ditto for Pierce and Allen) then him being banged up or out for the playoffs might be more the rule than the exception. The C's couldn't afford the lousy offseason they had this year and they learned the hard way that banking on finding gems on the waiver wire at mid-season is a gamble that doesn't always pay off.

I'm still a fan of this squad but much like the last time they were embarrassed in a game 7 at home, changes need to be made, no matter how much I like the team.

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

From the Daily News (via RealGm)

Yi's struggles to improve his defense, rebounding and passing under Lawrence Frank didn't sit well with GM Kiki Vandeweghe.

Mind you, this is a guy who shot just 38% this season so you can only imagine how bad the rest of his game is.

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Spike Lee is one of the most underrated directors in the business because most people don't recognize the sterling work he does in documentaries. Unfortunately, "Kobe Doing Work" isn't going to help any because it is one of the most boring things I've ever watched. It's essentially a DVD Commentary of a basketball game with only Kobe Bryant commenting. Not only is one person yammering on about themselves not interesting but it's especially not interesting when said person is the humorless Kobe Bryant.

Granted, there isn't really anyone on the Spurs who could have made it better but I think a film like this with multiple commentators (and maybe people in the same room, debating things) could be interesting. Or have guys give a commentary on old games. I'd like to hear KG and Marbury talk about some of their games on the Wolves.

But if it has to be just one person, who would you want to hear give a running commentary on their game (with little bits about their life)? My top ten would be:

10. Shaq - The Big Aristotle is always funny but I'm really not sure how much he really has to say about the game. "OK, here's where I back down another guy..." I think a commentary with him and Nash could be funny.

9. Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce/Eddie House - Although they'd probably have to bleep out every other word KG says.

8. Baron Davis - For all the money he makes, the Clippers should at least get a DVD commentary on his half-assed performances.

7. Chris Anderson - An interesting life story. Maybe team him with Chauncey since he's been a basketball journeyman despite his All-Star status.

6. Greg Oden - Just to see if he'd get injured during the taping of the commentary. Maybe Raef Lafrentz could be his co-host and give Oden some tips on where to buy the best suits.

5. Ron Artest/Yao Ming - I'm a fan of the odd couple and think these guys would be interesting, both in their insight into the game and into their roads to the NBA.

4. Michael Beasley - Just because he cracks me up whenever he opens his mouth.

3. Tony Allen - Because, seriously, I want to know what the hell is going through his mind when he does the stupid shit he does.

2. Gilbert Arenas - Hibachi is always good for some quotable and this would also give a little insight about what people do when they are sitting on the bench all game. What goes through their minds? What do they wish they could do? Maybe a Wiz/Grizz game from last year so we could invite Antoine Walker along as well.

1. Delonte West - This would be comedy. West is one of the looniest guys in the league and he'd have a lot of free time to riff on random subjects when he's on the bench. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 01:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

So John Hollinger starts off his latest Per Diem with yet another ridiculous "Why aren't people talking about..." This time it's about the Nuggets and how they are running through the playoffs. The thing that really irks me though is how he acts like nobody in their right mind would have the Nuggets where they are right now. The Nuggets making it to the Conference Finals isn't really that hard to imagine. Hell, even I predicted it.

What annoys me is that Hollinger rights things like, "I'm here to tell you -- no, implore you -- to pay attention to the Nuggets, because there's a chance you might be seeing an awful lot of them in June." Anyone paying much attention knew that they would be a top team in the West at mid-season. Most people were smart enough to peg them as a playoff team. Hollinger? Not so much. 

It's just frustrating to read an article from a supposed expert who, instead of fessing up about his oversight, suddenly jumps on the bandwagon and starts telling everyone about how they should be paying attention. I'd almost rather he hold a grudge or stick to his guns too long than continually lecture NBA fans about things they already know.

All I know for sure is that we haven't been paying any attention to these guys, and we're missing out on what could become the year's biggest story.

No John, YOU haven't been paying attention and this article just shows even more how you've been sleeping on the Nuggets all season. Stop hiding behind this "we" crap and own up to the fact that you didn't just overlook these guys like they haven't been making noise all season; admit that you were flat out wrong about them from Day 1.

Also, it misses the key question surrounding the Nuggets' run: what if they owners hadn't been so cheap that they gave away both Marcus Camby and Antonio McDyess? Could McDyess be the X-factor who could tip the scales in the Conference Finals (or NBA Finals, even)? Or are "we" out to lunch on that question too?

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I've been focusing on the soulhonky.com main page and, you know, my actual job of late so not much going no here. I probably won't be posting much until the C's are eliminated because then I can launch into offseason ramblings for every team. I might also start a new site and switch a lot of this over so stay tuned (and click on the ads while staying tuned, if you don't mind).

As for Round 1, it had some amazing games but the best ever talk is a little much. Maybe best first round series ever but even then I have a hard time buying it because I felt that most of the drama stemmed from stupid mistakes rather than great play. Sloppy turnovers, forced shots, missed free throws (if Pierce hits his, the series is a sweep). It should be interesting to see how it changes the Bulls' approach this offseason. I think they need to get rid of Gordon and find a legit low post threat if they want to get to the next level. Also, I wonder if the series helped spare Paxson's job.

I still don't have much faith in the Magic but the C's are just so banged up right now that anything could happen. It's probably going to be another seven games series but either way, the winner of this series is going to get run in 5 (maybe 6) by the Cavs.

I'm rooting for Denver to take the West. I like the 'Melo/Billups tandem and would like to get a 'Melo v. LeBron finals. I would love to get another taste of Celtics/Lakers but if the C's can't make it, I want the Lake Show to go down as well.

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)