Can Danny?

Jason Kidd has commented that he might want to head to Cleveland.

"I could sit and watch from the bench," Kidd said. "[LeBron] is so talented, he's going to get guys wide open shots. So we'll look at free agency and what happens for me next year."

I highly doubt that Kidd would be happy on the pine unless he'd THAT committed to chasing after a ring. I don't think he makes sense in Cleveland so I'm hoping they go for it. What they need is a better shooting guard so let's hope they invest their money on Kidd.

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

BJ Mullens recently declared for the NBA draft and while I can't blame the kid, it does show just how weak this NBA draft is that he can have an average season yet still might be a top 10 pick. At the very worst, I can't see center fetishist Rick Sund passing him up at 19 when the Hawks pick.

I can't remember a March Madness that has been the devoid of NBA talent. James Harden pulled a stunning disappearing act which might have hurt his top 5 status if there was anyone else around to fill it. The high risers are Dajuan Blair but I think both him and Sam Young have major questions surrounding their games. Watching them (and Hasheem Thabeet) beat up college kids reminds me of someone playing a video game on intermediate level. They think they are great but when the move to Expert, none of their little gimmicks work anymore and they are lost. Thabeet needs to get stronger, Blair needs to expand his offensive game, and Young needs a better go-to move than a pump fake.

That being said, I think everyone mentioned has a place in the NBA but the odds are that for most them, that place will be on the bench. A lot of the players seem like they may be late bloomers ala John Salmons or Marvin Williams; players who needed to refine their skills and get used to the NBA style before they could really blossom. If guys do make an impact from day 1, my guess is that they are like Clarence Weatherspoon, Laphonso Ellis, and Corliss Williamson - players who impress from as rookies but then never really get any better.

But the biggest fear for teams in the lottery has to be that many of the raw prospects stay in the draft. There's a good chance that half of ESPN's current top 20 prospects don't enter the draft. Guys like Patrick Patterson and Willie Warren have already said that they intend to stay while the Wake Forest trio seemed to be leaning towards returning after they flamed out in the tourney. Now we all know that these kids could change their mind at any minute however after last year's draft, which saw supposed lotto talents like DeAndre Jordan, Donte Green, and Darrell Arthur plummet, could keep them in college. Even worse, the buzz from scouts is markedly different this year. Last year people wondered if guys were ready for the NBA; this year the scouts are openly questioning whether some of these prized recruits, like Jrue Holliday, are actually NBA material at all.

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I'd like to throw my name into the mix for the apparently open job of General Manager of the Los Angeles Clippers. It's a franchise that's basically been a joke for years so, honestly, hiring me wouldn't even seem that insane for them. Also, I'd already be the best GM in team history if I just managed to walk into my office on the first day and not throw millions of dollars out the window. But to further support my candidacy, I'll throw some other ideas out there.

1. Rebranding 

Let's be honest, Clippers has become synonymous with losing. It's a team for which nobody wants to play and a game that most fans of opposing teams won't want to go to unless they just want to see a probable win for the home squad. The first thing this team needs to do is change their identity and start over.

I'm fond of the name "Villains". Let's just embrace being the bad guys. The problem with that is that in most stories the villains lose in the end so that wouldn't exactly change the teams negative outlook. A friend of mine always wanted an LA team to be named Los Angeles de la Muerte (aka The Angels of Death). I don't have a set idea for what the name should be but I would definitely recommend that the team consider rebranding itself ASAP.

2. The Coach

Mike Dunleavy Sr. has to go. That's obvious. Not only do I not want a disgruntled former GM running the team but he doesn't fit the roster that he's supplied himself. I'd be willing to take a reduced salary for a couple of years if it meant getting rid of Dunleavy.  

I'd love to get someone like Jeff Van Gundy but let's be honest, this team is a mess so I'm not sure someone like that is going to come here. Flip Saunders might not even want to put up with it. The guy I'd target to take over this squad is Dwayne Casey. Casey did a good job with a bad Timberwolves team. The only reason he lost his job was that the Wolves were bad and the front office had to blame someone for the mediocre record. Of course, after firing Casey, the team got even worse so it just proved that Casey was getting the most out of the personnel he had.

Guys like Sam Mitchell or Avery Johnson might be attractive but both of those guys have had a history of losing or clashing with players and the last thing this franchise needs is more locker room gossip.

3. The Roster

I have to be honest, there isn't really anyone on this roster that I'd want to keep. I'd look to dump the contracts immediately by making a movie like Zach Randolph and Baron Davis for Tracy McGrady and filler. Yeah, T-Mac is always banged up and might not be ready to play next year but that's fine. He's an expiring deal and if he's hurt, then insurance covers his salary and saves the team money.

Randolph would be the guy I look to move and I think his value might be a little better than it was after the disasterous season with the Knicks. I'd probably call the Bucks regarding Richard Jefferson or maybe the Bulls about some of their players. He'd be the first person on the block and I wouldn't be willng to take back dimes on the dollar for him (but not if it means taking on a longer contract).

I wouldn't give away Baron Davis unless I was also dumping another salary. If Kaman is in the deal, I'd expect something more than T-Mac and filler because Captain Kaveman is younger and actually works on defense.  I'd also look to move Al Thornton and might even want to sell high on Eric Gordon. I like Gordon but I'm just not sure his ceiling is as high as some people think it is right now.   

But most importantly, I'd build this team around defense. If you don't have a top 3 player in the league, it's very hard to win and NBA title and the only people who have been able to do it have always featured defense. The Don Nelson/D'Antoni style offenses add a little excitement but the excitement of winning is more fulfilling and lasting. If you have a team going nowhere, sure, roll the ball out and let them run up and down so the fans have something to watch but if you want to win, you need to start on the defensive end.

Building a team, I'd start of young and cheap and I'd do my best to avoid huge contracts unless I'm getting a guy who can carry a team. I never would have traded for Z-Bo and wouldn't have made the Brand/Baron gambit if it meant I was stuck with an aging PG. Unless we get a star players, I'd look to focus on balance as opposed to bringing in the next best thing.

Those are the basic tenants of my GM approach. I think it would help the Clippers become a legit NBa franchise and give them a better shot at becoming a contender. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 07:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Michael Beasley needs to work on his ad-libbing. It's hilarious how he just freezes when something goes wrong. The rest of the interview is OK, he seems like he's on a full time high, but it gets really funny when they go through his highlights at the end. I don't know how you can't love B-Easy. Someone needs to get a talk show for him and Delonte West.

Posted by SoulHonky at 07:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

John Hollinger is at it again. Just weeks after posting that Chris Paul is having possibly the greatest season EVER for a point guard, he's now saying that LeBron James is "having one of the greatest seasons in league history."

James doesn't lead the league in a single individual category, and his scoring and rebounding numbers are both down from a year ago. Yet when one looks at his accomplishments in total, and adjusts for both his minutes and his team's pace, he's having one of the greatest seasons in league history.

First off, I do like how you have to ignore some statistics and look at other ones to defend this position but what I really love is how, in Hollingerworld, "ever" doesn't include about half of the NBA's existence.

That 31.89 mark is Michael Jordan's PER from the 1987-88 season, the top mark for any season since the league started tracking individual turnovers in 1973-74. (We don't have enough information for seasons prior to that, unfortunately, so we can't properly evaluate Wilt or the Big O.)

So the first twenty seven years of the NBA just don't count? I think Hollinger should probably drop the "ever" from his pronouncement. (And this is probably something he should have mentioned in his Chris Paul argument as well). Still Hollinger feels like people aren't giving LeBron James, one of the most hyped athletes of our time, his due.

What's very clear, however, is that LeBron's campaign belongs on the short list. Few players in history have had a season approaching this one, and as of today only one player has exceeded it.

And by "few players in history have had a season approaching this one", not only does Hollinger ignore most of the Hall of Fame but he also means Dwyane Wade and Chris Paul, two guys who are both at +30 in the PER and have a chance to be better than the supposed best ever.

Now Hollinger cops a lot of pleas for LeBron, including bemoaning the fact that James doesn't play in a fast-paced era. But PER makes up for that by taking into account pace. So in reality, James might actually be better off playing in a slower era because he doesn't have to put his numbers up, they are projected for him. He gets to live off of what he might have done while players on faster paced teams actually have to put up the numbers.

What's really galling though is when Hollinger throws out the line "there are a variety of subjective criteria one can add to the discussion that goes far beyond the limits of PER." like it's nothing. It's almost an afterthough. In reality, those subjective criteria expose just how limited PER actually is. PER is the core to Hollinger's entire argument and it assumes that all stats are equal, that the NBA was always the NBA, and that the only thing that ever really changed was the pace at which the game was played.

That blind allegiance to PER is what makes these articles so frustratingly myopic. Hollinger wants to compare Michael Jordan's 1987-88 season with LeBron's campaign this year but he only wants to look at the stats he's chosen and not anything else. The number 7 doesn't mean anything to him. That would be the numbers of new teams that have come in since '88 and have watered down the NBA talent pool.

It also ignores the fact that Michael Jordan's season came at a time when defenses were so tough and most players were having such a hard time scoring that the NBA would soon change the rules to help out offenses. Jordan didn't have the friendly circle under the hoop that made it easier for him to drive to the hoop and avoid charging calls. LeBron doesn't have to deal with Dennis Rodman mugging him or Anthony Mason trying to dislocate his hip with hand checks. Yes, Jordan didn't have zones but I think the NBA-style zone which is weakened by the defensive three second rule along with the fact that great centers like Hakeem/Ewing/The Admiral/etc. aren't roaming the paint today would have helped Jordan even more.

In the end, Hollinger's comparison is like taking a player on a slow-paced team from a mid-major conference and then saying that he would have put up even better numbers if he played on a fast-paced Big East team. The stats say it would happen; common sense knows that it probably wouldn't.

LeBron James is having a great season. The stats help show that it might be better than we realize. But John Hollinger needs to stop being an ESPN gimmick and throwing around hyperbole when it's so obviously short-sighted and flawed. PER is a tool, not the definition. If this discussion was IKEA furniture, John Hollinger would be sitting on an Allen wrench, exclaming "Greatest. Couch. Ever!" And at the very least, he needs to spread out his hyperbole so he isn't whining about the lack of MVP love Chrs Paul gets and then coming back with an article about how LeBron is MVP (and Dwyane Wade would seem to be #2).

Posted by SoulHonky at 11:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Someone has been twittering as Rick Reilly or rather Fake Rick Reilly. The tweets are a great mix of Reilly's silly puns (Goosen wins for the first time in four years? What a Retief!), ridiculous analogies (Nice start for the 1 and 2 seeds. Last night had more blowouts than an eighteen-wheeler driving over a field of porcupines), and laughably earnest moments (Frank Lutz knows that volleyball can't bring his gay dead son back but with each spike, he heals just a little bit more.)

A fun read. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Boston Globe is reporting that Mike Dunleavy might lose his GM role in Los Angeles. Not sure why he'd bother sticking around as the coach but maybe the hope is that he'll quit that gig so the Clippers won't have pay him his full salary (which would happen if they fired him outright).

Also, it doesn't make a ton of sense to keep him when he can't do anything with the talent that the team has. It should be interesting to see what happens here but the mess that is the Clippers seems like it could be heading for an ugly game of chicken. It's bad enough that the players don't care but things might actually be worse next year if Dunleavy pulls a Don Nelson and half-asses it as coach. (And I'm sorry but if Baron Davis can take it to Jose Calderon, then it's pretty obvious that he's just not trying)

For years, people have been mocked Elgin Baylor. Who would have guessed that firing the man widely considered the worst GM in the NBA would move the Clippers from being a laughingstock to something that's so pathetic that you can't even laugh at it.

If Jerry West or Randy Pfund take over, it should be interesting to see what they do (or what they are even able to do with some of those contracts). 

Posted by SoulHonky at 11:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

A semi-random aside, LeBron James did something in the Portland game that could spell doom for the NBA. He took the ball to the post and tossed up a little hook shot. I haven't seen him do it that often but if LeBron spend this offseason working on a nice baby hook or a MJ-like turnaround J, he could be unstoppable.

Wing players don't usually like to go down into the post but LeBron's size makes him a perfect candidate. He could demolish pretty much any guard or small forward on the blocks and if the opposition tries to throw a big man on him, he can pull it out and shoot over/drive past the big.

Granted, LeBron's not the only one who should work on this. Carmelo Anthony would also help himself out a lot if he developed a better post game but I've unfortunately not seen much of any improvement from 'Melo over the years so my guess is that LeBron is going to be the man to do it. I wouldn't mind seeing my man Thad Young add a post move of some sort to his expanding range but he's still young so I'll give him a couple of years before he starts refining his skills. 

Hopefully, opposing announcers will harp on LeBron's jumper and say that he isn't a great three point shooter so LeBron spends most of his time working on his good enough perimeter game rather than expanding his arsenal into the low block. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 12:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

"I don't think that the mix is good enough, it's just like with oil and water," Nelson said before Tuesday's game. "They're both really good players, but we need somebody that can guard a 2. Especially when you get into the good teams, the 2's are 6-foot-7, and Monta's not a very big guy."

I guess I can't fault Don Nelson for this one. I mean, when someone asks why you aren't playing your two shoot first, defend maybe (but probably not) undersized off-guards together, there's really only one thing to say and that's the obvious.

Of course, I don't think that means that you have to go so far to demote Jamal Crawford completely and never let the kid off of the bench. But hey, this is how Nellie works. If I was Jamal Crawford, I'd almost start thinking about filing a harrasment claim against the Warriors. Either they should offer to buy out the rest of his contract or leave him alone. Stop jerking him around and bad-mouthing him in the hope that he'd get so sick of it that he'd do the dumb thing and opt out of his contract.

On the bright side for the Warriors, Brandan Wright returned and is looking OK and Anthony Randolph continues to show some promise. I doubt those two can really work side-by-side any better than Monta and Jamal but at least they give the Warriors a couple of trade assets (or one trade commodity and one young talent to hold onto). And Corey Maggette continues to put up numbers off of the bench which might lead to some GM being foolish enough to deal for his crappy contract this offseason.

Posted by SoulHonky at 10:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Adam Morrison told the LA Times that he's not a bust and that reports of the death of his career are greatly exaggerated.

He admitted that his knee still isn't fully healed, which has affected him significantly this season, but he doesn't understand why people are forgetting his rookie season.

"That's the one thing that does bother me," Morrison, who averaged 11.8 points in his rookie season, said. "It was like I didn't really do anything that year. Then now I come off the surgery and I don't really get the benefit of the doubt until I get healthy. But this is a business and this is the pros so I understand how some people are."

To that I'd say, reports of his ever having a career are greatly exaggerated. "It was like I didn't really do anything that year." It's hard to figure out what Morrison was so proud of. He averaged 11.8 points a game but needed 12.1 shot a game to get even that. He shot 37% from the floor, barely had more assists than turnovers, and couldn't even nail the NBA three with consistency. Hell, he wasn't even a good free throw shooter at 71%. And those are just his offensive stats. Let's not even get into how routinely he was abused by opposing players on the defensive end.

I'm really not sure if pointing to his woeful rookie season is really the way to go. He'd probably be better off just saying, "Hey look, Saer Sene's not in the league anymore and Patrick O'Bryant's been waived already so it's not like I'm the worst player in that draft class."

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

No Big East teams will make the Final Four. That was the prediction I made earlier and I have to say that the matchups did not help that prediction. Similarly, I predicted that no number 1 seeds would make the finals but I'm not sure how that would happen. But let's see how my predictions could come true.

Midwest

If I'm Rick Pitino, I have to wonder how I'm the #1 team in all the land and I somehow have a tougher road to the Final Four than the other number 1's, especially conference rival Pittsburgh. I have Louisville beating Michigan State in the Elite 8 but it's far from a sure thing. If freshman flop BJ Mullens actually shows up and Evan Turner has a great game, OSU could give the Cardinals a run for their money. Of course, if those two don't shine, Ohio State might not even make it past Siena.

Utah and Wake Forest also would be a threat to Louisville's March but Wake's outside shooting is suspect while Utah's defense isn't going to slow down the Cardinals. I'd take either team to upset the Pitt Panthers but I don't think they match up well with the L'ville.

As for the bottom half of the bracket, I'm not a big believer in Michigan State but I believe even less in the other teams. Kansas or USC could lose in the first round or challenge Louisville in the Elite 8 but I'm going to stick with the rankings and have the Spartans face the Cardinals in the Elite 8. 

West 

If there was one thing that was surprising about UConn's six overtime loss to Syracuse, it was that Jeff Adrian didn't show up for any of the overtimes. If that level of play continues, I can't see UConn even making it to the Elite 8. On the bright side, they won't really have too much of a challenge until then. The one team I can see beating them is Purdue and the Boilermakers have to escape the 5-12 upset special first. I think the upset special would be Washington losing in the first round though, allowing Purdue to head to the Sweet Sixteen where they would upset UConn.

Utah State could be the wild card in the bottom of the bracket. I don't have much faith in Marquette sans Dominic James and Missouri seems like the kind of team that will find a way to lose in the tournament. That, of course, just sets them up for a meeting with Memphis and I don't see that working out well for the Aggies. Memphis is my choice to make it out of the West and set up a Calipari vs. Pitino matchup.

East

I really don't think Pitt is going to make it to the Final Four but this bracket is completely underwhelming. The only team that I could see beating them in their half of the bracket is Xavier. 

The bottom half of the bracket is a Who's Who of disappointing squads. Duke, Texas, Villanova, and UCLA should all meet in the second round and who survives out of that lot is anyone's guess. Part of me wants to take UCLA to the 8 and maybe the Four but they are a lot of people's pick to be upset in the first round. Instead, I'm going to go with Duke beating Xavier to make it to the Finals.

South 

It doesn't seem like Ty Lawson is healthy so I'm not even sure that UNC can make it past LSU in the second round. I think they will but I'm not having them get past Gonzaga. I'm not sure whether they'll face Syracuse or Oklahoma in the Elite 8 but it doesn't matter. This is their year to make a run to the Final Four.

In the real National Title game, I have Memphis beating Louisville with Duke making it to the afterthought matchup, which Memphis should win somewhat handily.

Posted by SoulHonky at 10:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Despite his disappointing play this year, I'm still a big believer in Michael Beasley. I think he needs to handle the PF spot more often than the SF spot, especially against agile SF's but I still think he can create more matchup problems to make up for his lackluster defense. Unfortunately, I just don't see Miami ever using him correctly and he'll never reach his potential with the Heat. So where might the Heat ship their young star?

Phoenix: Would Amare fit in the Spoelestra defensive-minded system? This might be the ideal trade for both teams. The Suns get a young guy who would be a nice third or fourth option next year alongside Nash and Shaq and he could also give them a foundation for the future.

Toronto: Not sure if the Heat have enough to make this work but if Bryan Colangelo sees Beasley as a fit to his Phoenix-style plans, he might go for Beasley, a pick, and Mark Blount's deal for Bosh. I'd have to think that they could do better for Bosh but since he's likely to opt out, they have to get something for him and Beasley is a very good worst case scenario.

The real question with Bosh and Amare is whether or not they are truly worth second max contracts. For a team like Miami, it could make sense because they'd be teaming with Wade, an elite NBA superstar who has shown that he can win with a highly paid big man and a bunch of role players. For other squads, I'm not so sure.

Philadelphia: While Philly is making the playoffs, I really think they need to look at what Detroit did to build it's title team. The Pistons won 50 games and then revamped their lineup almost completely to build the team that won the title and became an annual contender. A deal like Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, and Dalembert for Beasley, Jermaine O'Neal, Mark Blount and a pick or two could work. I like the Beasley/Thad Young pairing while Mareese Speights is a promising young big man. The Sixers could add a couple of young guys in the draft and would have Jermaine O'Neal and Blount's expiring contracts to make a play for veteran at the deadline or to clear up a ton of cap space for the 2010 free agent market. It's a lot to give up but the Sixers just didn't look good with Brand in the lineup and as much as I like Iggy, he's not really leading Philly to anywhere outside of Mediocrity City so the Sixers need to shake things up.

New Jersey: I'm not sure what the Nets are hoping to get for Vince Carter but Beasley and JO for Vince and Bobby Simmons might be the best offer they'll get. Granted, Beasley pretty much duplicated what Yi Jianlian brings but maybe they could deal the Chairman for a shooting guard or a versatile forward who can defend both the 3 and 4 spots.

Golden State: This might be the most likely deal since the Heat might be willing to take Stephen Jackson's contract off of the Warriors hands or, if Golden State gives up enough, I wouldn't be stunned if the Heat were willing to take back Corey Maggette's deal. Then again, if the Heat are really focusing on getting Chris Bosh or Amare in 2010, they might not want to give up their cap space, even if it meant getting guys like Andris Biedrins and Brandan Wright. I'd consider that type of deal though as it might be better (given Wade's shaky injury history) to get a couple of players in a JO/Beasley deal rather than just one superstar.

Personally, I think Miami is better off making a deal this year than holding out hope that they can sign someone like Bosh or Amare. A deal like the Golden State or Philly trades, in which they try to snag two or three players/prospects, also seems like a better idea than putting all your money on Amare or Bosh. Especially Amare since that would give the Heat one of the more fragile duos since Ming/McGrady or McGrady/Hill.

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Posted up the 2007 Draft Redux over at the main SoulHonky site. Enjoy.

Posted by SoulHonky at 11:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Remember when Shawn Marion left the playoff-bound Heat in a trade to the lotto-bound Raptors and he said he was happy? He said he was glad to be out of Miami's "boring" system.

Well, it didn't take long for him to change his tune.

"I'm pissed off," Marion said Thursday. "I am. I want to win.

"I don't want to go out there and lose every night. I didn't come here for this. I didn't expect this.

"Right now, we've got no fire. We've got to find that fire. That's what we need. We have a talented team, man. We have to pull together and help each other. We have to decide now if we're going to fold it up or look in the mirror, make a stride, and get on with it."

Um, where were you all season Shawn? You didn't notice that the Raptors stunk and had started phoning it in even before you got there. And how can the guy who said he'd rather run and down and be the man rather than have a shot at a title really lecture people about doing what it takes to win?

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Yes, Stephon Marbury is struggling. But let's not go crazy here. The guy is replacing Sam Cassell. After a couple of nice games in Celtic greem, Cassell went through a five game rut just as bad as Marburry's when he show 4 - 24 with 11 assists and 8 turnovers. Marbury hasn't been great, or even good, or even mediocre, but let's not pretend that the Sam Cassell Era featured a ton of highlights. And, thankfully, I haven't yelled "Stop shooting!" once so far whereas Cassell was launching shots at an almost comical pace the moment he stepped on the floor.

Mikki Moore is, no pun intended, more of an issue because I just don't see him replacing PJ Brown's effectiveness and veteran savvy. I'm sure Danny Ainge has been on the phone with PJ seeing if there is any way that they can lure him out to retirement. Since Brown is a restricted free agent, he can sign with the Celtics at any time before the playoff rosters need to be set and still be able to play in the second season. I'm pretty sure that's the rule (at least that was the rule in 2006).

If Brown won't come back, and players we sign can still be eligible for the playoff roster, who else might we look at? 

At the point guard spot, I'd take a look at Marcus Williams. Yes, he's a bit of a headcase but I think he's someone that could work well in the right situation. The power forward list is more interesting because it includes the green lightning rod himself, Antoine Walker. There's also Paul Davis, Robert Horry, and the combo-forward Ruben Patterson. Of course, most of those guys have the Marbury issue of not having played for a while.

Still, Antoine back in Beantown would be interesting to say the least.  

Posted by SoulHonky at 11:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Every time ESPN ticks me off I find myself looking for new places to go for NBA news. More often than not, I just find more annoying articles and end up right back at ESPN. To paraphrase an old Winston Churchhill gem, it really does seem that ESPN is the worst source for NBA news... except for all of the other sites.

The latest article that got me was Steve Aschburner's CNN/SI article about The Aging of NBA Prodigies. It was one of those moments when I actually appreciated John Hollinger's stat fetish because he seems to have a handle on the numbers. Aschburner starts with a good question: do more minutes at a young age mean today's straight-from-high-school All-Stars will peak at an early age? But then he doesn't actually analyze anything. He throws out random names and stats about minutes and that's it. So I found his e-mail address and sent him a reaction to his article. Here it is.

--- 

While your premise about the aging of the NBA's straight outta high school crowd is interesting, it's a bit disappointing that you didn't really investigate the concept at all. In your piece you cite a few names (including, oddly enough, Moses Malone who was himself an NBA prodigy) but then you only point out their minutes played. You don't actually look at their career arcs and compare them to the current NBA prodigies nor do you take an average NBA career span and compare it to the kids. Of course, if you had done that you'd probably have found no real cause for alarm.

The first new era high schooler was Kevin Garnett. You cite the fact that he missed 9 games last year and has been out some time this year as a harbinger of doom even though last year he had an MVP-type season and helped lead the Boston Celtics to an NBA championship. In your paragraph about KG, you cited a few names but then never really compared them to KG besides their minutes count. So let's take a look.

At age 32 and 33, Hakeem Olajuwon missed ten games in each season and his game started to slow down. At 35, he missed half a season and never really was the same. KG is basically on the same pace. His body might be breaking down a year earlier but I don't think it's that hard to imagine that he has four more solid years left in him.

When David Robinson was KG's age (32), he was coming off of a lost season and starting the second phase  of his career as Tim Duncan's #2. He had a couple of solid years left in him but his decline had started. Charles Barkley started missing games consistently at the age of 27. At the age of 32, he began his tenure in Houston and that didn't exactly work out all that well. Jerry West started missing games when he was 27. By the time he was 32 years old, Nate Thurmond was already a year into his decline. Larry Bird missed a full season at age 32 and was out of the league in three years.

So when you look at where KG is at the same age as the stars of yesteryear, he really doesn't seem to be off the mark. In some cases, he's actually looking better than his counterparts.

But perhaps the most telling comparison would be KG to his fellow McDonald's All-Americans. Does KG seem much worse off than: Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Antawn Jamison, Chauncey Billups or Shareef Abdur Raheem? Or how about Tim Duncan, who is a month younger than Garnett, and a player whose body started showing signs of wear when at 27 (missing 13 and 16 games in back-to-back seasons)? It really doesn't seem like those four years at Wake Forest have spared Tim Duncan any of wear-and-tear.

The same comparisons can be made with Kobe Bryant. Stephen Jackson was on Kobe's McDonald's squad. The following year's squad had recent nemesis Ron Artest. I wouldn't say that Kobe seems like he degenerating any faster than those two.

Also, it's a common belief that most shooting guard start their decline at age 32. Many guards, like Mitch Richmond, don't decline as much as they fall off a cliff. At age 29, Kobe won the MVP. At age 30, he's still the best player in the league and he's the main reason the Lakers are arguably the best team in the league. Despite coming out straight from high school, he seems to be on the same path as most NBA shooting guards. In fact, if he started to decline after this season and then, in a couple years, became Dwight Howard or Chris Bosh's second fiddle, his career path would mirror Clyde Drexler's.

But I think most people would agree that Kobe has more than two great years left in him. He might not last as long as Reggie Miller (who carried the Pacers to the Finals at age 34) but Elvin Hayes peaked at 31 and started to decline at 34, something which seems about right for Kobe. Magic Johnson had to retire early but he was already on the other side of his peak when he did and he was 31.

The Michael Jordan comparison is always a tricky one. First off, MJ is the best ever. Secondly, if Kobe was following MJ's blueprint he wouldn't even be making a run to an NBA title right now, he'd be at spring training.  Even without the hiatus though, I don't think it's hard to believe that Kobe has four more great years left in him, at which point he can take four years off, and then come back and put up points on a crappy Wizards team.

At the very least, Kobe is still on the standard career arc of NBA shooting guards. Someone who is deteriorating faster is Tracy McGrady, as well as Kobe's draft classmate Jermaine O'Neal.

But before you blame no college ball for those collapses, look back at the draft a decade before Jermaine O'Neal. Brad Daugherty went to college, was injury plagued, and out of the league by 28. Fellow Blazers draftee Kevin Duckworth peaked at 26 and was downhill from there so it's not like Jermaine O'Neal's decline is some recent phenomenon.

As for T-Mac, his career isn't really much different than his collegiate cousin, Vince Carter. T-Mac has been injury prone, just as his cousin has, but oddly enough both of them had their best scoring seasons at 23 and 24 years old. Carter fell from grace in Toronto and moved to New Jersey at age 29 where he's put up numbers but hasn't really helped the team to playoff success. I could see the same thing happening to T-Mac. He's 29 this year and will probably be shipped off this offseason to someplace where he can put up some numbers. Another comparison is Steve Smith, who moved over to Portland at age 29 and was never really heard from again. He retired at age 32, just as James Worthy did. Grant Hill's debilitating injury happened when he was 28, a year young than McGrady.

McGrady is injury prone (he's actually never played a full 82 games season) but he's not the first talented player to shine early and then fall apart before their time. And let's not forget that at this time last year, people were singing the Rockets praises as they were on a somewhat historic win streak.

So finally it comes to LeBron, whom you compare to Oscar Robertson. Now I never watched Oscar play but just looking at the stats, it doesn't seem like LeBron is that far off of Robertson's career path. The one season Robertson averaged a triple double was his second, at age 23. His rebounding numbers fell by age 27 and by 29 he wasn't averaging a double-double anymore. In fact, he wouldn't see the playoffs again until he was 32 and shipped off to Milwaukee where he would win an NBA title as Kareem Abdul Jabbar's #2. He was out of the league three years later.

So all LeBron has to do is be great for the duration of his next five or six year deal and then, for his next deal, settle in as a new superstar's wingman. That hardly seems like a tall order for The King.

In the end, your summation seems to miss the point of what an athlete's peak really is. It isn't when they are at the height of their athletic ability or physical prowess. Every athlete starts feeling beat up by their late 20's. By his late 20's Michael Jordan had already changed up his game because he wasn't the athlete he used to be. No, what the "peak" of an athlete is is when their maturity and wisdom catches up to their physical abilities. It's when they realize what it takes to win in the NBA and are still limber enough to make it happen. And for these young players, I believe the extra years in the NBA will help them mature faster and have more years to take advantage of their peak athleticism.

The old saying is "Smart too late, old too soon." And with these young stars of the NBA, the issue isn't that they are getting old sooner, it's that many of them are getting smart earlier. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 07:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Let me start by saying that one of the only things worth reading on ESPN.com is John Hollinger's scouting reports on the player pages. They are insightful and spot on and really show Hollinger's knowledge of the game.

Unfortunately, outside of those scouting reports, Hollinger has become little more than an ESPN gimmick. He holds stats in such a high regard that he overlooks what he sees with his own eyes. He concocts idiotic arguments to defend his statistics even when they seem to be obviously incorrect. 

Now it seems like John has picked up another annoying ESPN habit: acting like nobody else in the world ever watches basketball. The Sports Guy has a running joke about being one of the few people who still watches the NBA but the reason that it's not funny is because he actually believes it. He and Hollinger seem to believe that nobody watches the NBA but them. Even worse, they constantly write stories as if their readers are just stumbling across the league for the first time. Give us a break. It's ESPN. A sports network. Your stories are on ESPN.com, usually under the NBA section. The people who read your stuff are fans. Most are die hard fans.

In his latest Per Diem, John Hollinger makes a case for an unknown star... Chris Paul. Chris Paul! A guy who most people know by his nickname CP3 is somehow a "cult' hero. Hollinger writes:

As a result, Paul may stay a cult hero for a while longer. Yes, he gets a few scraps of national TV exposure and the occasional endorsement, but he remains mostly a "League Pass" legend known best to TiVo junkies and his small band of admirers on the Bayou.

Thus, I must implore you again -- watch this guy, and appreciate him while he's in his prime. Those in the know are seeing the best point guard since Magic Johnson, and arguably the best little man of all time … and the lack of attention to his exploits continues to bewilder me.

Does he really think that the people who click on his stories really don't realize how good Chris Paul is? I disagree. In fact, I'd argue they know more than Hollinger. For instance, John starts his article with this: 

So it's weird to me to see that we probably have the best player ever of his kind playing right now … and yet he's weirdly gone unheralded. We couldn't wait to throw MVPs at Nash and Iverson and darn near gave one to Jason Kidd, too. But Chris Paul? Somehow, it doesn't seem everyone is totally on board with him.

John Hollinger might be beside himself about the lack of love Chris Paul gets but I think most NBA fans read that comment and wonder to themselves, "Wait, didn't CP3 come in second in MVP voting last year?" Because he did. He was second to only Kobe. He was ahead of KG and the golden child LeBron James.

Hollinger also overlooked the fact that Paul is part of arguably the second most heated debate (behind Kobe vs. Lebron vs. Wade) in the NBA. He overlooks it because despite Chris Paul's great stats and despite his MVP votes, there is someone else looming in the background. There's a guy who gets less exposure than Paul, less time on the major networks, and fewer endorsement. Oh, and right now his team has won more games.

Personally, I think Chris Paul is the best point guard in the league but I can't help but read Hollinger's argument and see it as less of a love letter to Paul and more as a somewhat disengenuous and passive-aggressive argument against he who shall not be named: Deron Williams.

Of course, it makes sense why he would leave Williams's name out. After all, the Jazz are currently on a 12 game win streak, are two games better than the Hornets, and Deron's done it without Carlos Boozer for most of the season. It makes sense because the Hornets, despite Paul's heroics, aren't on pace to win as many games as last year might not have home court in the playoffs whereas the Jazz are closing in on 3rd place in the West.

So let's not mention Deron Williams at all. And don't even think about mentioning Tony Parker. Chris Paul is a beast. Everyone knows it. But apparently John Hollinger has to act like he's reinventing the wheel and clueing everyone else in to that fact rather than address the prospect of someone else being just as good even though they don't have the stats.

Honestly, Hollinger shows that he knows the game. He is a good writer. If only he'd take his head out of his stats and actually write insightful pieces about the game of basketball, he'd be worth a damn.

---- 

Oh, and for those of you playing at home, Hollinger's Top 15 draft prospects per his draft regression formula were (in order): Beasley, Love, Arthur, Speights, Augustin, Rose, Alexander, B. Lopez, Chalmers, Bayless, Hibbert, Koufos, Greene, Darnell Jackson, and DeAndre Jordan.

I know that his regression stat predicted the third year PER and that things can change but it can't be a good sign when three of the top five projected vote getters for ROY (Mayo, Westbrook, Gordon) aren't even in your top 15.

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

So where would Michael Beasley go if the 2008 Draft was done over? Who would move up? Who would fall? Who would be avoided like the plague? Here's the SoulHonky stance on what the 2008 Draft would look like it is was redone today.

1. Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose

If the #1 pick for Wade trade was actually on the table, the Bulls would jump at it but since I doubt that would happen if the draft was today, I say that Rose is still the main man in Chicago. He's no longer a sure thing as guys like OJ Mayo and Russell Westbrook are right there with him in terms of potential but Rose is doing a good job in Chicago and they can't really be that upset with how he's panned out.

2. Miami Heat: OJ Mayo 

The man whom John Hollinger predicted would not be one of the top 15 players in this draft class would be the #2 pick. Now I really like Michael Beasley but his defense is a lot worse than I realized and moreso, he just doesn't seem to fit on the Heat. He's a bad fit for their system so they'd go with Mayo to create one of the most dynamic backcourts we've seen since Zeke and Joe.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves: Michael Beasley

They might not play a lick of defense but man, a Big Al Jefferson/Michael Beasley frontcourt would put up some numbers on offense. Also, the Wolves have Ryan Gomes who could be a decent enough complement to Beasley. And no, he shouldn't deal Beasley for Kevin Love and Mike Miller. He should, however, try to move Antoine Walker's expiring deal and something for a complementary forward like Gerald Wallace or Josh Smith.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder: Russell Westbrook

Again, no complaints with this pick. Westbrook is helping the team win without Kevin Durant and Jeff Green and seems primed for a career long battle with OJ Mayo and Derrick Rose over who is the best PG in the 2008 draft.

5.  Memphis Grizzlies: Kevin Love

Brook Lopez is the better big man but Love seems to be a better fit in Memphis. Lopez would duplicate Marc Gasol a little too much whereas Love can handle the power forward position and is also the kind of rebounder/passer who could get the break started for Mike Conley Jr. and Rudy Gay.

6. New York Knicks: Brook Lopez 

Lopez becomes the best big man the Knicks have had since Patrick Ewing hung 'em up. He gives D'Antoni ball an almost perfect anchor helps the Knicks win games now and in the future.

7. Los Angeles Clippers: Eric Gordon

Part of me still think that Jerryd Bayless still could be a better pro than Gordon but Eric just seems like the perfect Clipper. A guy who can score at will, get his stats, but might not actually improve much in the future or win that many games.

8. Milwaukee Bucks: Marreese Speights

Yes, Jason Thompson made a bigger splash but he's also playing on the Kings and is 22 years old so that's expected. Speights is a year younger and has more upside and has looked better as a cog on a winning team. Also, Speights seems more like a low post big man who could complement Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villenueva as opposed to Thompson. Either way, they sure as hell don't take Joe Alexander.

As for Bayless and Augustin, I'm a fan of Ramon Sessions and think that Speights fills a bigger need. Villain is putting up some numbers this season but I just don't think he's a legit starting PF, especially alongside Bogut. 

9. Charlotte Bobcats: Jerryd Bayless 

Yes, Augustin has shown flahses this season while Bayless hasn't done all that much since the Summer League but I just think Bayless is a better fit, especially since he might be able to handle moving over to shooting guard better than Augustin, which would leave Raymond Felton running the point and not playing out of position.

10. Portland Trailblazers: DJ Augustin

With no Brook Lopez on the board and no big men really worth the 10th pick, the Nets trade down with the Blazers who take DJ Augustin to be their PG of the future. They probably move Sean Williams in the deal and pick up Jarrett Jack to back up Devin Harris for a year and then be off the payroll ASAP.

11. Indiana Pacers: Mario Chalmers 

Jim O'Brien would love to have this ball-hawking point guard with a solid three point stroke. Also, the Pacers have to add a point guard because if the draft happened today, there's no way that Toronto is sending TJ Ford and their pick over for Jermaine O'Neal.

12. Sacramento Kings: Anthony Randolph 

I'm still a believer in Randolph's potential and while I have been impressed by Jason Thompson this season, I'm not sold on him and Hawes as being a great frontcourt tandem. Randolph's potential and ability to run the point forward spot makes him a nice complement to Kevin Martin and may save the Kings from wasting money on Beno Udrih. Perhaps they make a run at one of the available scoring point guards like Ben Gordon or Jamal Crawford.

13. New Jersey Nets: Javale McGee

By now it's clear to see that I'm still not a huge believer in Jason Thompson. In fact, if anyone proved me wrong this season, it's McGee who has looked great at times for the Wizards. He's a project but he runs the floor like a guard, has a great motor, and is a natural shot blocker.

14. Golden State Warriors: George Hill

I was initially going to have Thompson land here but then I remembered that Golden State has Brandan Wright waiting in the wings so I decided to go with the next best point guard remaining. Hill handles the point guard spot vacated by Baron Davis and helps the Warriors immediately on the defensive end. He and Ellis are a smallish backcourt but it should work in Nellieball.

15. Phoenix Suns: Jason Thompson

Thompson lands in a perfect spot, backing up Shaq and Amare. The up-tempo style (the Suns don't make the mistake of hiring Terry Porter if we hit the reset button on the season) also could fit Thompson's M.O.

16. Philadelphia 76ers: Robin Lopez

The Sixers have a lot to sort out this Redux Offseason. Do they re-sign Andre Iguodala? Who do they sign instead of Elton Brand? I'm not sure what the answer is but the one thing for sure if that the Sixers don't need to draft a small forward. Lopez is probably the best bet on the board so they go with him.

17. Toronto Raptors: Nicolas Batum 

The Raptors probably want to trade one of their point guards but they might give serious consideration to dealing Jose Calderon instead of TJ Ford. Calderon's trade value is higher and he's pretty much proven this year that the Bosh/Calderon duo isn't exactly Stockton/Malone or even Nash/Stoudemire. Batum gives them an exciting young player to take over the small forward spot.

18. Washington Wizards: Roy Hibbert

Well that worked out nicely. The Wizards fill their hole in the middle with Georgetown's own Hibbert.

19. Indiana Pacers (from Cleveland): Kyle Weaver  

When the Toronto trade falls through, the Pacers decide to take the Cavs lowball offer for Jermaine O'Neal. They then add another player that Obie will probably love, a defensive-minded 6'6 shooting guard who could pan out to be an Eric Williams/Erick Strickland type player in Obie's system. And with the Pacers losing 30 million this year, I think they pass on the guys with more potential and opt for Weaver who has actually been helping the Thunder win games of late.

20. Charlotte Bobcats - Danilo Gallinari

The cheap Nuggets still deal their pick for a 2009 protected first rounder and the Bobcats take a flyer on a foreigner who might have a chance of actually playing in the NBA. The Rooster could easily move up if I do a 2008 redux next year but for now I just can't see why people would invest in Danilyi Jianlianari and his bad back. And I don't know, something about Michael Jordan, Larry Brown, and Gallinari seems like a fun grouping.

21. New Jersey Nets - Joe Alexander

Alexander is probably a role player for life but he might actually fit alongside Yi and McGee. Ryan Anderson has been a solid pick for the Nets but I think they'd go after the falling Alexander here. As for the Mavericks, they are cursing the fact that this Redux doesn't go back a couple months more so that they could undo the Jason Kidd trade.

22. Orlando Magic: Courtney Lee

Brandon Rush is still on the board but Lee has just been a better player while Brandon has looked like just another Rush brother.

23. Utah Jazz: Kosta Koufos 

I still don't know what to expect out of this kid but he seems like a good fit in Utah, especially if they lose Mehmet Okur this offseason.

24. Oklahoma City Thunder: Brandon Rush

The Thunder took Serge Ibaka here. I have no idea who he is. Instead I'll go with Brandon Rush for the Thunder. He seems like he could bea good role player on this young team and would fill out the lineup of Westbrook, Rush, Durant, Green, and Krstic.

25. Houston Rockets: Anthony Morrow

Morrow can do one thing and that's shoot and that's all the Rockets really need out of a shooting guard. If he can hit the kickouts from Yao, he's all good.

26. San Antonio Spurs: Chris Douglas-Roberts

All of the point guards are gone and they don't really need a SF so the Spurs go with Douglas-Roberts, a guy who looked good up until the season started when he was relegated to the bench. Not sure if he has attitude problems ala Sean Williams but he's worth the risk for the Spurs.

27. Portland Trailblazers: Serge Ibaka

Why not? It's not like they need any more rookies on the roster this year.

28. Memphis Grizzlies: DeAndre Jordan 

There aren't really any shooting guards left to fill that spot (and they still have Mike Miller in this alternate universe) so why not take a flyer on the young and raw Jordan who has actually looked decent enough on the Clippers this year.

29. Detroit Pistons: Darrell Arthur 

It's between him and Ryan Anderson (They don't really need Hickson since they have Maxiell) but I like Arthur's upside a little more. Donte Greene is also a possibility but he seems like he might be too much of a tweener to really make it.

30. Boston Celtics: Ryan Anderson 

Anderson is someone who'd be able to get minutes on the Celtics and we wouldn't be watching Mikki Moore complain about fouls if we had him. It's hard to pass up a prospect like Greene but the C's need players more than prospects. Also, the last potential filled guy named Green didn't exactly work out.

The first few picks of the second round would be:

31. Minnesota Timberwolves: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute 

A good defensive SF who could work well with Michael Beasley.

32. Oklahoma City Thunder: JJ Hickson

They take a flyer on the young, strong PF who could add some muscle to their frontcourt.

33. Portland Trailblazers: Donte Greene

More potential for the Blazers.

34. Minnesota Timberwolves: Mike Taylor 

A pesky point guard who could win some minutes.

35. Los Angeles Clippers: Alexis Ajinca

Michael Olowokandi 2.0? 

36. Portland Trailblazers: Ante Tomic

Why not?

37. Milwaukee Bucks: Bill Walker 

Could earn the minutes Prince Luc has gotten.

After that, it's anyone's guess. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 07:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

So after the surprising lottery and wild 13 team trade, what might the NBA draft look ilke? It's still early but here are some early guesses.

1. New York Knicks - Ricky Rubio - The Knicks pull off the lotto miracle and land the Spanish Superkid who could be the perfect PG for D'Antoni ball. Also, he's a great talent and cheap which makes New York all the more enticing for free agents in 2010.

Of course, nobody knows what the Knicks will look like next year since guys like David Lee and Nasty Nate Robinson are free agents. Should be an interesting offseason in the Big Apple.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder - Blake Griffin - Harden might make the most sense personnel-wise but I just can't see the Thunder passing on Griffin. Yes, Jeff Green is playing well but Griffin is from Oklahoma City, went to OU, and could be a dynamic low post option to team with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Also, the Thunder could use Green and Earl Watson's expiring deal (and some of their cap space) to make a deal for a veteran to help the Thunder make the playoffs next year.

3. Toronto Raptors - James Harden: The Raptors pick up the #3 pick in the lotto and fill the hole at shooting guard that they've had since Vince Carter left. I'm not saying that Harden is the next Vince Carter but he's better than the other guys the Rapz have had lately.

After the deals, Toronto ends up with: Jose Calderon, James Harden, Andre Iguodala, Ty Thomas, and Chris Kaman. I'm not sold on Thomas but this should be a solid running team and his responsibilities will be limited at best.

4. Sacramento Kings - Brandon Jennings: When Jennings walks up to collect his Kings hat, Stern smiles and whispers to him, "You try to buck the system, you get sent to Sacramento." He'll be missing Italy in no time.

5. Golden State (via Washington) - Jeff Teague: I'd like Teague to go to Toronto in a deal for Calderon but I just don't see anyone taking Corey Maggette or Stephen Jackson or their contracts. So since they can't get a new Nash for Nellie, the Warriors replace Monta with a combo guard/scoring point guard in Teague. I don't think Jamal Crawford will opt out this offseason so Teague gets to learn from off the bench for a year before taking over the starting spot.

6. Phoenix Suns (from L.A. Clippers) - Greg Monroe: The rebuilding of the Suns begins with Greg Monroe getting tapped as the big man of the future in Phoenix.

7. Memphis Grizzlies: Jordan Hill: Hasheem Thabeet's fall starts getting people's attention. The Grizzlies considered the big man but since they already have Marc Gasol in the middle, they decided to go with the power forward from Arizona to fill out the lineup of: Conley, Mayo, Gay, Hill, and Gasol. Needless to say, the Grizzlies will be in the lottery next season.

8. Phoenix (via Minnesota) - Al-Farouq Amino: With no true point guards in the draft, the Suns role the dice on Amino who could be a great complement to Monroe and Love in the Phoenix frontcourt of the future or could be a bust. But with three picks in the first round, the Suns can afford to take a flyer on this kid or they could go for Earl Clark.

9. Golden State Warriors - Willie Warren: Desperate to dump either Corey Maggette or Stephen Jackson, the Warriors work feverishly until the clock is about to run out. They can't move either of their long term contracts and decide to invest the pick in the backcourt of the future by pairing Teague with Warren. And while neither guy is really a pure point guard but the Warriors have Anthony Randolph who could pan out to be a point-forward type of player.

At the end of the crazy day, the Warriors have reloaded with a current starting lineup of: Jamal Crawford, Corey Maggette, Stephen Jackson, Antawn Jamison, and Andris Biedrins and a young trio in Teague, Warren, and Randolph waiting in the wings.

10. Dallas Mavericks (via Indiana) - Gerald Henderson: Thabeet makes some sense here but the kid is soft and that's honestly the last thing that this team needs. Not that Henderson is some tough guy but the Mavs have gone down this road too many times before (Shawn Bradley, Erick Dampier, DeSagana Diop) to try it again.

11. Los Angeles Clippers (via New Jersey): Hasheem Thabeet: Things work out perfectly for the Clippers and they take Thabeet to replace the departed Kaman and Camby. After a whirlwind day of trading, the Clippers end up with: Baron Davis, Vince Carter, Al Thornton, Zach Randolph, and Thabeet with Bargnani being the sixth man. If the Bobcats make the playoffs, the Clippers would have that pick as well but for now they'll have to wait a year for it.

12. Charlotte Bobcats: Evan Turner: Turner's a solid player who is improving by the year. Most importantly, he works on the defensive end so he should be able to step in and get some minutes under Larry Brown (especially if the 'Cats can't keep Raymond Felton). The lineup of DJ Augustin, Raja Bell/Turner, Deng, Diaw, and Okafor should keep the Bobcats hunting for the playoffs. Not sure how much deeper than that it will get them but it's better than relying on Michael Jordan and Co's drafting ability.

13. Milwaukee Bucks: Stephen Curry:  The Bucks would love to send this pick along with Richard Jefferson or Michael Redd but I'm not sure if anyone is interested in either of those contracts. Curry's a tough selection. He could be a great shooter from the point guard spot or he could be a worse than Ramon Sessions. It's a tough call but in the end I think they go with Curry here.

14. Phoenix - Tyreke Evans: Evans might not be the ideal shooting guard for the new look Suns but he's probably the best guy to take here. After all of the movement, the Suns have a squad of: Nash, Mike Miller, Grant Hill, Kevin Love, Marcus Camby with Brad Miller, Greg Monroe, Bobby Simmons, Evans, and Leandro Barbosa on the pine. Amino and Goran Dragic fill out the bench. Not great but they'll have a lotto pick next year and tons of cap space so it's not a bad place to rebuild from. Oh and they also have the next pick in the draft, Chicago's first rounders. 

Evans's performance in the NCAA tournament could determine whether he goes here or falls.

Posted by SoulHonky at 10:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Another day, another moment of pointless drama for the Golden State Warriors.

Reports are now surfacing that Don Nelson has told Jamal Crawford that the honeymoon is over and if he doesn't opt out of his contract, he will be traded during the offseason. To me, this is yet another sign of Don Nelson being completely out of control and not really having any idea what he is doing. Why would you tell him that? First off, Jamal Crawford would have to be a graduate of the Sprewell School of Finance to opt out of his deal. There's no way he's going to sign a ten million dollar deal this offseason. A) He's not that good. B) Everyone is saving cap space for 2010. On top of that, why would you shoot Crawford's trade value to shit by saying that you don't want him. It's not like the guy had much value before that but now he's literally nothing but a contract. The only way that the Warriors have a chance of getting something for him would be if they take on a terrible contract. (Look for Michael Redd to be a Warriors next year).

In the same Mercury News report was this gem: "In that same conversation, Nelson told Crawford that he would give him some games off in part to keep his statistics high. The plan to variously rest the Warriors' other veteran players emerged in part to avoid the appearance that Nelson was singling out Crawford."

What a genius plan by the Nefarious Nelson!

Except Robert Rowell, team president, immediately commented that Don Nelson does not speak for the management of the Warriors. 

Good god this franchise is a mess. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 10:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

With the recession hitting the NBA hard and attendance dwindling, David Stern needs to hope for some teams to shake things up this offseason. The draft doesn't really offer any sure-fire stars and most teams are probably going to sit out this offseason, hoping to save their cap space for the 2010 shopping spree so trades are probably the only thing that could save the day. That and some lottery "luck" that could bring some big names to the right places.

For starters, the lottery goes: New York Knicks #1, Oklahoma City #2, Toronto Raptors #3. The Knicks hold up a Rubio shirt as Mike D'Antoni can't wait to get the young Spaniard into his run-and-gun system. But that's hardly the biggest news of the day.

Soon after the lottery unfolds, an league changing 13 team trade is annoued. It won't formally go through for a week or so after the draft (so that many players involved are no longer on BYC status) but it get people talking about hoops in the offseason and shake up the league.

Some minor players might need to be added for the deal to work but the basic breakdown of the deal is... 

The Atlanta Hawks acquire Monta Ellis for Josh Smith

With Mike Bibby being a free agent and possibly gone, the Hawks reload by adding Monta Ellis for the resident problem child Josh Smith. They also mend fences with Josh Childress and bring him back, giving them a starting lineup of: Ellis, Joe Johnson, Josh Childress, Marvin Williams, and Al Horford.

The Denver Nuggets acquire Josh Smith and Caron Butler for Carmelo Anthony, Renaldo Balkman and their own first round pick & Charlotte's protected 2009 first rounder

The Nuggets seems stuck in a rut but they shake things up by sending 'Melo back to the D.C. area. Butler and Smith should make up for the lack of scoring and Smith should help out their defense. It gives them a lineup of: Chauncey Billups, J.R. Smith, Butler, Josh Smith, and Nene.

The Washington Wizards land Carmelo Anthony along with Brandan Wright and Denver's first rounder for Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, and their 2009 #1 draft pick

Some might argue that this is a lot for 'Melo and the unproven Wright but the trade helps them cut salary and in this draft, the later draft prospects might turn out to be just as good as some of the lotto picks. Also, the Jamison/Butler duo clearly isn't cutting it so it's hard to argue that the two guys who are leading the Wizards to the worst record in the league are a fair deal for 'Melo and Wright.

The Golden State Warriors acquire Antawn Jamison, Deshawn Stevenson, and the Wizards' #1 pick for Monta Ellis, Kelenna Azubuike and Brandan Wright

The Warriors take on another aging star with a big contract but get a top pick in exchange for two guys who seem to be in Nellie's doghouse. Still, Jamison seems like a perfect fit for Nellie's system and the pick should be able to land someone who might be able to replace Ellis.

The Philadelphia 76ers acquire Chris Bosh, Brian Cardinal, and Kelenna Azubuike for Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala

The Sixers reshape their roster by adding the superstar Bosh and handing the small forward position over to Thad Young. Cardinal's contract is expiring while 'Buike should fit in nicely at the starting shooting guard. While it might seem like a lot to give up, imagine if before the season the Sixers dealt Iggy and some cap space for Bosh. I think Philly fans would have been pleased. Their lineup heading into 2009-10 will be: Lou Williams, Kelenna Azubuike, Thad Young, Chris Bosh, Mareese Speights.

The Toronto Raptors acquire Andre Iguodala, Ty Thomas, Chris Kaman for Chris Bosh, Andrea Bargnani, and Kris Humphries

When Bosh tells the world that he wants to opt out and leave, the Raptors scramble to find a deal. They end up dealing Bosh for a bunch of young talent. It's not exactly proven talent but once the word gets out that Bosh wants out, they can't expect to get someone of equal value.

The Clippers acquire Vince Carter, Andrea Bargnani, Kris Humphries, New Jersey's #11 pick and Charlotte's condition first rounder for Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, Eric Gordon, and their first round pick.

The Clippers dump Kaman's long term deal while getting a big man who might actually complement Z-Bo on offense. The Baron/Vince/Thornton/Z-Bo/Bargnani lineup should put up a ton of points. Granted, it'll give up a lot of points but it should, at least, get people in the stands.

Charlotte aquires Luol Deng for Gerald Wallace

Deng seems like a guy who would fit in well alongside Boris Diaw and will fit in with Larry Brown's system. The Bobcats have been trying to get rid of Wallace all year.

Chicago acquires Gerald Wallace, Amare Stoudemire, and Jason Richardson for Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, Brad Miller, Ty Thomas, and the #1 draft pick

Finally, John Paxson pulls it off. Granted, it's not the KG deal but he's able to swing Deng for Wallace, Brad Miller, a first round pick, and Ty Thomas for Amare Stoudemire, and also swing Kirk Hinrich's more reasonable deal for Jason Richardson. Should be fun to watch Derrick Rose run with these guys and John Salmons. 

Minnesota get Brand and Hinrich for Kevin Love, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, and their #1 pick

The Wolves also swoop in with top picks and expiring contracts. Brand could be a nice complement to Big Al Jefferson while Hinrich should be able to help Randy Foye be less of a liability.   

Phoenix acquires Brad Miller, Marcus Camby, Bobby Simmons, Mike Miller, Kevin Love, and Chicago, Minnesota, and the Clippers' #1 picks for Shaq, Amare Stoudemire and Jason Richardson:

The cost cutting Suns get a bunch of expiring deals in Camby, Simmons, and the Millers' while also adding Kevin Love and three first round picks. They'll have young talent and loads of cap space come 2010.

New Jersey gets Jermaine O'Neal, Eric Gordon, and Phoenix's #18 pick for Vince Carter, Bobby Simmons, and the #11 pick

JO is about done but he's an expiring deal and Gordon for Carter could turn out to be like Devin Harris for Jason Kidd. The Nets also move down in the draft but that shouldn't be too bad in this draft.   

Miami gets Shaq for Jermaine O'Neal

Shaq and Wade back together again with a younger supporting cast in Beasley, Chalmers, and Moon.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

As I was watching the 2004 draft, I couldn't believe that supposed  Top 5 pick Josh Smith was falling into the Celtics' lap. Team after team passed on the young kid and then when Robert Swift, Danny Ainge's rumored favorite, was selected by Seattle, I thought Josh would be in green.

Then the Celtics pick came and we ended up taking Al Jefferson. I didn't exactly understand the pick since we had Antoine Walker and Josh seemed like a better fit between Truth and 'Toine. In the end, Big Al worked out because he helped net us Kevin Garnett but four plus years later, which guys would you rather have?

Al Jefferson has blossomed into one of the best low post prospect in the league and is a dominant offensive player. Some fans have dubbed him "The Unstoppable". Unfortunately, he might as well stop at the half court stripe because he doesn't seem to have much interest in the defensive end. In fact, for all of his stats, he's still kind of a great player who doesn't seem to care a great deal about the game. He lacks passion. Not to be confused with Robert Parish who was passionate but quiet, Big Al just doesn't really seem to give a damn.

But the biggest issue right now is Big Al's lack of durability. Out for the season yet again, this marks Al's second season in which he couldn't crack the 60 game mark. He was able to play all 82 games last year but that's starting to look more like the exception than the rule.

Do you really want to depend on a guy who you can't depend on on one half of the court and might not even be healthy? 

With Josh Smith, you know what you're going to get. And that's kind of the problem.

His shooting looked like it was improving but that was a mirage. He's leveled off a 25% from three and his jumper is streaky at best but is usually consistently shaky. While he still can help on offense, he makes his money on the defensive end where he racks up the stats and is able to guard either the 3 or 4 spot. Sometimes he even jumps out to guard opposing PG's. He seems to be a guy that the Miami Heat should go after to pair with Michael Beasley.

Unfortunately, Josh's biggest problem is Josh. The kid's crazy. He just got into another altercation with Coach Mike Woodson. While most everyone has come to recognize his lack of shooting ability, Josh still hoists up way too many jumpers. One reason for that is that his handle is still shaky and while he can usually drive past opposing forwards, there's no guarantee that Josh will be able to get the ball to the basket. While talent-wise he seems like a great fit for the Heat, his head makes him seem like he should be on the free-for-all Warriors.

So if I was building a team and had to choose one of these guys, who would I choose? I really like Josh but I think I'd have to go with Jefferson. I initially was going to go with Smith but then I thought that if the Wolves dealt Big Al for Josh, the Hawks would be better while the Wolves might be the same. Also, the Wolves would never deal Al for Josh while the Hawks would jump at that deal.  

It should be interesting to follow the careers of these two but part of me is fearing that it's shaping up that they will go down as "What Might Have Been..." candidates rather than fully realized NBA stars. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Wu-Tang became notorious for never showing up for concerts or having only half of their members show up but most of them being the b-team guys and now the leaders like Method Man or Ghostface or ODB. That's basically the Clippers. It seems like every game someone isn't playing for some reason. So who's who?

Rza = Baron Davis: The ringleader who brings it all together but the other members might actually be better off working with someone else. Also, did their best work before becoming too focused on making movies.

Method Man = Eric Gordon: Meth was the youngest member of the Wu and had the most potential. But he had to break out on his own to really become a star. The same could be said for Gordon.

ODB = Zach Randolph: Made a big splash early and then let the fame get the best of him.

Raekwon = Al Thornton: Both guys made a splash with their debuts and then have been teasing fans with the potential that they might match or improve upon that debut... but they still haven't.

Ghostface = Marcus Camby: Has his own style and has put out consistently solid (if not huge crossover success) efforts in his career.

Inspectah Deck = Brian Skinner: Skinner made a name for himself in his first stint with the Clippers and then kind of slid into the background. Deck did the same.

Gza = None: The lack of a backbone like Gza is one of the reasons the Clippers are not good whereas the Wu were classic.

Masta Killa = DeAndre Jordan: Masta Killa was mentored by Gza and Jordan needs some mentoring and let's hope Camby or Brian Skinner are helping him out. People don't really expect much from Masta Killa but he's been known to be better than expected. The Clippers would love it if Jordan could prove people wrong for letting him drop to the second round in the draft.

U-God = Chris Kaman: Not a lot of people know U-God who was in jail during most of the time when 36 Chambers was being recorded. Not a lot of people remember Chris Kaman plays in the NBA as he's been injured or "coming back from injury" for most of the season (and a lot of his career).

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Miami is good but not great this year but what might have happened had Shaquille O'Neal stayed in Miami? Shaq is turning back the clock a bit and putting up solid numbers while Dwyane Wade is reminded everyone why he was once considered as good, if not better, than LeBron James. Where would Miami be if the Dynamic Duo was together again.

The first change would be that they probably wouldn't have Michael Beasley. However, even with Shaq for the rest of the season, I doubt that they Heat would have been that good. It's impossible to guess what would have happened with the ping pong balls but the Heat would be scary if they grabbed OJ Mayo with their pick. Kevin Love might be an interesting big man tandem with Shaq. Even someone like Eric Gordon would be an interestin addition. The Heat could still have Mario Chalmers as they acquired him with cash and second rounders.

So what about Chalmers, Wade, Love, and Shaq? Personally, I think they are a lock for the fourth seed and perhaps threaten the Magic. They're bench would still be weak but with the way that Shaq and Wade are playing right now, I'm very happy that the original Superman is in the West and not playing second fiddle to DWade.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I was getting a lot of junk comments so I had to change up my comment system but I'm going to give it another go. So feel free to drop a comment on whatever entry interests/infuriates you.

Also, please click on the ads on the sides so I can make a little coin on this blog. It'll probably be very little but hey, in this economy every cent counts.

And don't forget to mosey over to the SoulHonky main page now and then. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 12:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Mavericks are clinging to the 8th seed and are struggling to beat teams like Oklahoma City. They needed overtime to beat the Thunder last week and they just lost to them in miserable fashion last night. So the question has to be asked: do you make one last stand or do you rebuild?

To me, the obvious answer is to rebuild but I'm not sure what you can get for Dirk. Would Miami be willing to give up Beasley and possibly a pick if it means giving up cap space for 2010? What would the Warriors or Blazers be willing to give up? Can you also dump a bad contract like Dampier or Terry in the deal? If you go the rebuilding route, there's a good chance you end up with deals like this:

Dirk Nowitzki for Monta Ellis, Brandan Wright, and Corey Maggette: I think this is a lot to get for Dirk but it could happen (especially if Anthony Randolph is substituted for Wright). Corey Maggette is addition by subtraction for the Warriors so they'll just be happy to dump his contract. If the Warriors are as down as Ellis as they sounds, you might even be able to sneak out another player like Marco Bellinelli in the deal. Even if that's too much, I think reteaming Dirk with Don Nelson (whose presence is probably the main reason this deal would never happen) would be the best move for all parties.

Josh Howard, Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse for Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng (plus filler): Jerome James and another small contract would have to be a part of this deal but I like it. To be honest, I'm for it even if the Dirk deal doesn't happen but I like it even more if Dirk is gone. I'm still a believer in Luol Deng and think he is in dire need of a change in scenery. The Bulls have to take on Terry's contract but it's shorter than Deng's and they get Howard and dump more salary as Stackhosue and Howard could be off the books in 2011.

The Mavericks would have: Monta Ellis and Kirk Hinrich in the backcourt which is a pretty good tandem IMO. Hinrich can handle guarding 2 guards while also dealing with running the offense while Ellis focuses on scoring. Deng and Wright make up the forward spot and I like both of their upsides. Maggette is the 6th man.  

While I kind of like that squad, it's hardly a team that is going to make the Western powers nervous. In the end, if the Mavs aren't able to get young and clear cap space (which means packaging the likes of Erick Dampier and Jason Terry along with Dirk and Howard), they probably are better off making one last run by re-signing Kidd and trying to grab someone like Vince Carter for their expiring deals.

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

There is no team in the NBA harder to figure out than the Pacers. Just look at how they started last month. They lost to Minnesota and Philly, then beat Orlando, lost to the lowly Wizards, and then beat Cleveland. They almost beat the Celtics, did beat the Nuggets, yet I wouldn't bet against Sacramento tomorrow or the Clippers in a few days.

And the crazy thing is that these last few wins have come without their All-Star Danny Granger. Troy Murphy has turned back the clock while Jarrett Jack is living up to the potential he flashed back at Georgia Tech. I'm not sure if Jim O'Brien should get Coach of the Year consideration because of the way his team is somehow surviving despite injuries and are close to a playoff spot or if he is doing a mediocre job seeing as nobody knows which Pacers team will show up on any given night.

Maybe the Pacers live or die by their point guard, TJ Ford. Ford is one of the most underrated point guards in the league. Every team he goes to improves while his former team falls apart. When he went from Milwaukee to Toronto, the Bucks fell from 40 wins to 28 while the Raptors went from 27 to 47. The Raptors have fallen from a playoff team to last place in their division. The Pacers haven't exactly improved but, despite injuries, they are competing in every game and should be able to eclipse last year's win total. However, for all of Ford's positives, he's still an injury prone little man who can be taken advantage of on the defensive end.

Unfortunately for the Pacers, I'm not sure if things are going to change for the better this offseason. The Focus on 2010 hurts their trade chances since most of their guys have contracts that run to 2011. Marquis Daniels is an expiring deal this offseason so maybe they'll be able to get something for Daniels, Brandon Rush, and a draft pick. Also, they have to sort out what they want to do with Jarrett Jack, who is a free agent at the end of the season. It should be interesting.

If the owners can afford it, the Pacers might be in the contract swallowing business this offseason. While their players have contracts that go to 2011, perhaps they can take on some longer deals like Baron Davis, Luol Deng, etc.

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Pistons were a team that wasn't even running in place. They were just standing there wondering what the point of running was. One seemingly terrible move, however, has seemed to get the 'Stones back on track. After a few weeks of playing with Allen Iverson, the Pistons now seem focused and committed to show that they don't need him. Rip Hamilton looks alive for the first time in months and the rest of the Pistons seems to have remembered what passion is. Even crazier, Detroit actually showed up for a Sunday game.

I'm not sure if they're going to have enough to make noise in the playoffs but I wouldn't want to have to face them in the first round.  

Posted by SoulHonky at 01:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)