Can Danny?

While I liked the Raptors deal, they really should have gone with the Gerald Wallace for TJ Ford deal. Wallace would be the perfect SF to team with Bargnani and could salvage Andrea's career while the Raptors also could have held onto their pick and perhaps grabbed someone like Roy Hibbert, Donte Green, or Nicolas Batum.

Toronto Raptors
The Good: Nathan Jawai comes over to be the new backup big man for Toronto.
The Bad: Jawai never comes over and Jermaine O'Neal gets injured. Chris Bosh gets more and more frustrated.
My Guess: I'm not holding my breath on Jawai and while I like Jermaine O'Neal in Toronto, I just don't think he's going to be good enough to really make much of a difference. They still are a notch below the cream of the crop.

Philadelphia 76ers 
The Good: Mareese Speights is the next Al Jefferson.
The Bad: Mareese Speights is the next Robert Traylor.
My Guess: I don't mind the Speights pick. The Sixers might have wanted to look to trade down or grab Batum in order to work a deal with Portland or San Antonio but if no trade was out there, it makes some sense to take a flyer on the talented but underenthused Speights. It's about 40/60 against him ever working hard enough to fulfill his potential but he should, at the very least, be a servicable big body off the bench for the next five years.

New York Knicks 
The Good: Danilo Gallinari blossoms into a great all-around player, kind of like a rich man's Mike Dunleavy Jr.
The Bad: Like his countrymate Bargnani, Gallinari struggles to find his niche and ends up being a Vladimir Radmanovic type.
My Guess: I really didn't like this pick for the Knicks. Gallinari is a player whom you have to build around. He's a 'tweener forward and requires a Gerald Wallace or Josh Smith type alongside him to cover up his defensive issues. The Knicks don't have that and may never get it. Danilo has potential but I think there were a number of prospects with higher ceilings or would have been better foundations for a rebuilding team.

New Jersey Nets
The Good: Yi Jianlian lives up to the hype and becomes a great running mate for Devin Harris and Vince Carter. Brook Lopez, Ryan Anderson, and Chris Douglas-Roberts all become the type of players that LeBron James wants as a supporting cast.
The Bad: Lopez is soft and only a slight upgrade from Jason Collins, Ryan Anderson is Kirk Haston, and CDR's unorthodox style wows the fans... in Europe. LeBron actually learns to appreciate Soulja Boy's music.
My Guess: Brook Lopez should be a Bogut/Kaman level player for me; a person with solid skills who can put up good numbers but probably shouldn't be in your team's core if you want to win. Chris Douglas-Roberts should pan out to be a solid shooting guard off the bench. He'll likely be sitting next to Yi who I'm just not sold on. Ryan Anderson will be a rich man's Scalabrine at best for New Jersey. My biggest issue with the Nets is that they ended up getting less for Richard Jefferson than Indiana got for an aging Jermaine O'Neal. Seeing that the Kings wanted Jason Thompson, I really think they would have been down with my proposed Artest, #12 for Jefferson, #21 deal. I thought the Nets really could have made some noise this offseason but after draft night, I'll be surprised if they can work another big deal to add any talent. I'm not sure they make the playoffs next season.

Boston Celtics
The Good: The C's grabbed two superb talents with question marks. JR Giddens will hopefully get his head on straight since he'll be around KG, Pierce, and Ray Allen while Bill Walker recuperates and blossoms into a James Posey type player. Semih Erdeh gets to tell his family that he was drafted by the NBA champs.
The Bad: JR Giddens doesn't get his head on straight and the C's waste a roster spot on a malcontent who makes people pine for the days of Tony Allen. The C's wants Bill Walker to play overseas but he refuses, forcing the Celtics, who don't want another rookie taking up a roster spot, to waive him. He goes to another team and blossoms. Thinking they are now best friends, Semih Erdeh puts the Big Three in his fave 5 and calls them night and day.
My Guess: Giddens develops into a useful role player but never completely shakes his personality issues. The Celtics hold onto Walker but he doesn't do much next year. He becomes a solid role player but his knee issues prevent him from becoming more than that.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I don't know what is worse: the Mavs losing their pick in the lousy Jason Kidd deal or the fact that they now might give Desagana Diop the full MLE in order to pry him away from the Nets.

Dallas Mavericks
The Good: Shan Foster becomes a solid role player, feeding off of Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki. The Kidd/Dirk combo comes together and the Mavs make a little run in the playoffs.
The Bad: Mavericks fans watch and wonder what might have been if they had kept Devin Harris and drafted one of the avaiable talents (Donte Greene, Darrell Arthur, etc.) at 21. The Mavs are first round fodder yet again and Jason Kidd starts muttering something about wanting to go to a contender.
My Guess: Kidd settles into Dallas and the team improves but it still isn't enough to make fans forget Devin Harris. At least four players taken after 21 will make Mavs fans cringe, knowing that they could have had them. Shan Foster does well in the D-league but doesn't improve any and is out of the league soon.

Houston Rockets
The Good: Donte Greene helps the Rockets now by being a dead-eye shooter who makes a living off of Ming and McGrady's kickouts. Joey Dorsey learns from Dikembe Mutombo and becomes a defensive monster who complements Carl Landry and Luis Scola. Maarty Leunen helps out a D-league team.
The Bad: Donte Greene's lack of defense outweighs his offense and he doesn't work on his game, becoming just a jump shooter. He pans out as a poor man's Tim Thomas or a sane but equally ineffective Eddie Griffin. Nicholas Batum and Darrell Arthur (noth of whom Houston had at one point during the draft) develop into better players. Dorsey never amounts to anything. Leunen can't even help a D-league team.
My Guess: Greene becomes a solid player but does indeed focus too much on his jumpshot. While he could fall into the trap of being a Dennis Scott-type player, I think Rick Adelman helps him develop into a poor man's Clifford Robinson who teams with Shane Battier to be a solid combo at the 3/4. Dorsey finds his niche as a role player who can step in when Yao goes down in the future but he's not a reliable NBA starter. Maarty Leunen plays overseas.

Memphis Grizzlies
The Good: OJ Mayo proves that all of the hype was right and is the best player in the draft. Darrell Arthur proves that all of his critics are wrong and plays like a lotto-talent and people laugh about how they got Arthur and Javarris Crittenton (and backup big man Marc Gasol) for soft Pau Gasol. The Grizz trade Mike Conley and Darko for a big man and the Crittenton, Mayo, Gay, Arthur foursome begins to come together as a team to watch in the future. Jaric blossoms as a sixth man and Antone Walker gives the team veterean leadership.
The Bad: Conley and Mayo don't work well together and neither player is able to blossom because of it. Rudy Gay spends the year moping since the two guards are monopolizing the ball and Darrell Arthur never amounts to anything but a Kwame Brown-ilke tease. Jaric is fine with sitting around and making money he can spend on his new bride while Antoine pouts all season.
My Guess: Conley has to go. I don't see him meshing with Mayo and the Crittenton/Mayo combo makes more sense anyway. Jaric is a solid backup so Conley and Antoine's expiring deal should be enough to get a solid big man. If they can dump Darko in the deal, all the better. The focus should be on Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo as the core. I'm not sold on Arthur developing into anything better than Drew Gooden or worse than Hakim Warrick but he should be a solid sixth man. As it is, the Conley/Mayo backcourt will be an issue and nobody will benefit from it. The Grizzlies have pieces now but they are Clipper-esque in the way that their talent isn't going to translate into wins.

New Orleans Hornets
The Good: The Hornets owners use the money they made off of selling the #27 pick to sign a veteran shooting guard.
The Bad: The Hornets owners pocket the money and the Hornets have nobody to fill the void at the 2 guard spot (and if Peja goes down, the hole becomes even bigger).
My Guess: The Hornets have been throwing around money and still have Chris Paul to re-up so I can't imagine that the owners are interested in opening up the wally for a high profile 2-guard this offseason. On the bright side, there are a lot of solid, cheaper 2-guards available this offseason so perhaps the Hornets can add a cheap talent to hold down the 2-guard spot with Mo Peterson.

San Antonio Spurs
The Good: George Hill becomes a Bobby Jackson like backup for the Spurs and helps spell Tony Parker. Malik Hairston can deliver spot minutes at the SF. James Gist wows the crowd with pre-game dunks before slipping into his suit and sitting behind the bench.
The Bad: The draft night question of "Who is George Hill?" isn't answered and Jacque Vaughn still manages to hold onto a key spot in an NBA rotation. Malik Hairston and James Gist ride the pine in the D-league.
My Guess: Hill seems to have some potential but both guys seem like career end of the bench players. I'd be surprised if in the near future, people won't look back at this draft and see Darrell Arthur and Donte Greene at 28 and 29 and then wonder who the hell George Hill is and why did he go before those two.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Blazers just may have made them the best team in this division, if not the Western Conference, in this draft. The Timberwolves, on the other hand, made themselves a fun team to watch... for opposing fans. They'll probably give up well over 100 points a game this year. The Sonics took another step closer to making Kevin Durant the next great scorer who never wins anything. 

Denver Nuggets
The Good: Sonny Weems makes the roster.
The Bad: Nuggets fans wonder why the front office sold the pick for cash but then refused to spend the cash on JR Smith. It's more of the same for the Nuggets and Iverson decides to sign elsewhere after the season.
My Guess: Weems makes the roster but it's because J.R. Smith gets a full MLE deal from another team and leaves via free agency. The draft has little impact and the Trade Iverson discussions heat up at the trade deadline.

Minnesota Timberwolves
The Good: Kevin Love's all-around skills and tenacity makes him a valuable big man. He can step out and hit the three on offense and is tough enough to handle himself on defense. Nikola Pekovic comes over in a couple of year and proves to be a great big man off of the bench. The group of Love, Jefferson, Randy Foye, and Mike Miller becomes one of the best offenses in the league.
The Bad: OJ Mayo becomes a Deron Williams. Kevin Love becomes Nick Collison. The Wolves score 100 points a game and give up 125 with Corey Brewer being the only person on the team who can play defense.
My Guess: OJ Mayo was a great fit for this team and the Wolves made a huge mistake by giving him up. Kevin Love is a solid player but I don't like him as a complement to Al Jefferson and don't think he'll be anything more than a third star, at the very best. You can't give up a guy who is potentially the best player in the draft for a role player like Love. Mike Miller is a nice player but he's not getting any younger and the Wolves are still a couple years away from being much of anything. Like last year, the Wolves will be good enough to pull of some upsets during the regular season but I don't think they are anywhere close to really competing in the NBA. Pekovic sounds like a better complement to Al Jefferson than Love but he might not come to the US. Cap space is nice and all but I don't see people lining up to play in Minnesota and none of the young talent outside of Jefferson is good enough to bring back a star player.

Portland Trailblazers
The Good: Jerryd Bayless becomes a star at the point and the Blazers bumrush the NBA and make the playoffs. Nicholas Batum lives up to his hype and becomes the starting SF in a couple years.
The Bad: Bayless is an inconsistent scoring guard ala Jamal Crawford and struggles to beat out Sergio Rodriguez for playing time at the point. Petteri Kopponen then comes over from Finland and takes the starting spot, relegating Bayless to backup minutes. Batum doesn't beat out Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster, or Travis Outlaw for minutes and heads back to France after a year. Fans wonder why they gave up Donte Greene (and then Darrell Arthur) for him.
My Guess: I loved the Blazers trade to get Bayless, who I had as the #4 talent in the draft. He is an almost perfect complement to Brandon Roy and should give the Blazers a huge scoring threat and make it impossible for anyone to double team Oden or Aldridge. Donte Greene and Darrell Arthur seemed like better assets than Nicholas Batum but the Blazers could be the best place for the young Frenchman. He won't have much asked of him and can grow into his role. He also looks to be a better perimeter defender than either Arthur or Greene which fills a need.

Seattle Supersonics
The Good: Russell Westbrook becomes a lockdown defender and learns to run the offense, making him a perfect complement to Kevin Durant. Serge Ibaka comes over in a couple years as an athletic defensive minded big man off of the bench. Devon Hardin proves to be a legit starting center. DJ White becomes a solid backup big man.
The Bad: Westbrook never improves offensively and has neither the shot nor ball-handling to survive as a starting guard. Ibaka, White, and Hardin can't put it all together and are little more than 18 fouls.
My Guess: I don't like getting someone who's just learning to play point to go alongside Kevin Durant who has, in my opinion, questionable playmaking skills. Westbrook should pan out to be a defensive stopper but it's still probably in the Sonics best interest to move Durant to the 3 and grab a playmaking 2 guard. Westbrook has potential but is a little too reminiscent of the Keyon Dooling/Antonio Daniels types that became career backups. Devon Hardin was a steal where they got him and because of his defense, he could turn out to be the best center on the team (which is sad since the Sonics have spent about 8 first round picks this last decade on big men). I don't think DJ White will amount to much of an NBA player. He'll probably be out of the league before Ibaka ever arrives (if he ever does).

Utah Jazz
The Good: Kosta Koufos replaces Mehmet Okur (and help make him trade bait). In a couple years, Ante Tomic and Tadija Dragicevic come over to become key role players.
The Bad: Koufos is soft ends up as a permanent resident of Jerry Sloan's doghouse. The Euros don't pan out.
My Guess: Whenever a foreigner is drafted and "just isn't for the NBA", it usually means that they'll never be ready. Most guys who stay over and pan out do so because of contract issues, not talent or tenacity problems which is exactly Tomic's problem. As for the other Euro, if even Chad Ford hasn't heard of a foreign player, I'm not putting much stock in him. As for Koufos, he seems like a bust but now that he's in Utah I'm inking it in that he never amount to anything. A "disinterested" defender who doesn't rebound? Jerry Sloan is going to break this kid worse than MJ did Kwame Brown. The players were probably worth the risks where they were picked but I don't see Utah adding a single player out of this draft.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Heat took a huge step forward in the draft, getting a star who fits perfectly alongside Shawn Marion and possibly getting the perfect guard complement to Dwyane Wade in Mario Chalmers. The Bobcats set themselves up to improve if they can move Raymond Felton for a talent but I'm guess that they get a lousy return for him (especially since everyone knows they pretty much have to trade him now) and fail to make the playoffs yet again. The Magic might have helped themselves a bit while the Hawks (with no picks) and the Wizards (with a wasted one) are holding steady where they were at the end of the season.  

Washington Wizards
The Good: In a few years, Javale McGee blossoms into a backup center.
The Bad: Javale McGeee doesn't even make it through his rookie contract.
My Guess: Javale McGee's claim to fame this draft process was that he was the supposed talented big man that got so dominated by other prospects in workouts that he helped them improve their stock. Alexis Ajinca should give a bit of his guaranteed contract to McGee. Yes, McGee is tall and athletic and has a nice shot but he also doesn't know how to play the game of basketball (particularly on the defensive end). Jason Thompson might be the worst pick but McGee is a frontrunner for the worst player taken in first rounders. While I usually think kids should take advantage of their draft stock and come out early, McGee is the kind of kid who simply needs to play the game more and that's not going to happen for him in the NBA (and I just don't believe the D-league actually helps people improve).

On a related note, here are the players that the Washington Wizards have drafted this decade: Mike Smith, Kwame Brown, Jared Jeffiries, Juan Dixon, Rod Grizzard, Etan Thomas, Brendan Haywood, Juan Carlos Navarro, Steve Blake, Jarvis Hayes, Peter Ramos, Andray Blatche, Oleksiy Pecheroc, Vlad Veremeenko, Nick Young, Dominic McGuire. I don't see McGee working his way to the top of this list which is pretty sad. When arguably the best player you've draft in 8 years is Steve Blake, something is working.

Orlando Magic
The Good: Courtney Lee becomes the outside shooter they've been looking for at the two and also helps out as a solid perimeter defender.
The Bad: Courtney Lee is the next JJ Redick.
My Guess: The key to this pick is whether or not Lee can become an NBA-level defender. He should be a solid player and a good fit at the 2-guard but I still can't help but think that Darrell Arthur would have been the better pick. I like Lee but I'm not sold on a Jameer Nelson/Lee backcourt being capable of getting a team to the Conference Finals.

Atlanta Hawks
The Good: The Joe Johnson trade is finally complete and the final tally for what the Suns gave up was: Boris Diaw, Rajon Rondo, and Robin Lopez. Even though Billy Knight should have called the Suns' bluff (they wouldn't have matched the max salary the Hawks offered), the deal still ended up being a great one for the Hawks.
The Bad: Rick Sund is probably cursing the fact that he wasn't able to land one of the many project centers in this draft.
My Guess: Nobody gives a rat's ass since the focus in on re-signing the Joshes.

Charlotte Bobcats
The Good: DJ Augustin turns out to be a rich man's version of TJ Ford while Kyle Weaver is a defensive minded backup combo guard. The Bobcats land a solid young big man for Raymond Felton and Larry Brown has the team cruising towards their first ever playoff chase while Alexis Ajinca blossoms into a star in France and readies himself at life in the NBA in 2010.
The Bad:  DJ Augustin clashes with Larry Brown who plays the offensively challenged Weaver (or some newly signed vet PG) over him. The Bobcats continue to lose games and attendance drops. The likelihood of them moving becomes better than the odds of them making the playoffs. Fans in Seattle start watching the Bobcats in hopes that they'll soon be the new Seattle Supersonics.
My Guess: DJ Augustin pans out as a solid but not great point guard. Kyle Weaver is a 12th man which makes him better than workout wonder Alexis Ajinca who is another DeSagana Diop/Saer Sene. Michael Jordan deals Raymond Felton for a solid but aging power forward who helps the Bobcats improve just enough to get a worse lottery pick than this year. Attendance doesn't improve and the rumblings of moving trucks begins.

Miami Heat
The Good: Chalmers and Beasley not only are the perfect complements to Wade and Marion but they also help out immediately and the Heat make a legit run at the title.
The Bad: Chalmers is a bust and Beasley is a Glenn Robinson-type who is good at getting his points but lousy at helping his team win. Wade goes down with yet another injury and Marion decides to leave after the season.
My Guess: The injury issue is a legit concern with Wade but should he stay healthy, I think the Miami Heat are going to make some serious noise in the NBA next season. Chalmers gives the Heat exactly what they need out of a point guard alongside Dwyane Wade and Beasley is going to be Rookie of the Year and a future stud. He and Marion will be great complements if Marion's ego can accept being the defensive specialist and giving the rook the spotlight on the offensive end. That could be an issue and might lead to the Heat looking to move Marion at the trade deadline.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The draft changed little in the Pacific division. The Warriors are still young and talented but not good enough to be more than an upstart, the Clippers are young, talented, but mismatched that they aren't even upstarts, the Lakers are the elite, the Suns are a piece or two away, and the Kings should spend most of their money on scouting for the 2009 draft.
 
Golden State Warriors
The Good: Anthony Randolph blossoms into one of the top players in the draft and he, Andris Biedrins, and Brandan Wright become the best young frontcourts in the NBA. Richard Hendrix adds some hustle and muscle off the bench.
The Bad:  Randolph sits next to Brandan Wright and never gets any playing time. He either doesn't develop into a player or is eventually traded and blossoms for someone else. Hendrix's knee problem forces him into early retirement.
My Guess: Randolph shows signs of greatness in practice but gets no run this season as he is a terrible fit for Nelson's style of play. After another year of missing the playoffs, Nelson is fired and a new coach takes over and uses the impressive core of Monta Ellis, Randolph, Wright, and Biedrins the right way and things turn around for the Warriors. Randolph never shakes the 'tweener problem but becomes a solid Travis Outlaw-type player. Richard Hendrix never becomes a star but manages to have a solid NBA career.

Los Angeles Clippers
The Good: Eric Gordon becomes an All-Star shooting guard who teams up with Al Thornton to becomes one of the more dynamic 2/3 combos in the L. With Elton Brand and Chris Kaman anchoring the frontcourt, the Clippers make the playoffs again and put a scare into the #1 or #2 seed. DeAndre Jordan improves and seems to be the heir apparent to Brand's spot at the 4.
The Bad: DeAndre Jordan doesn't amount to anything and Eric Gordon doesn't fit in, giving the Clippers their usual talented squad that can't seem to put it together and actually win. The Clippers deal Brand for a veteran PG and it backfires with Gordon, Maggette, and Thornton being an all-scoring but little else trio. Within five years, the Clippers roster looks completely different (yet is equally unsuccessful).
My Guess: I like Eric Gordon as a scoring guard but I don't think he'll be as good as Jerryd Bayless. He'll help the Clippers but he doesn't seem like the kind of guy that will make his teammates better. He and Thornton don't seem to be a good combo at the 2 and 3 and the Clippers should probably see if they can go after Raymond Felton or another available PG. The Clippers will be improved this season but they won't make the playoffs and seem destined to be just good enough to battle for the playoffs (and sometimes make it) but never get past the first round.

Los Angeles Lakers
The Good: Joey Crawford is moved by the fact that the Lakers draft a kid named Joe Crawford and decides to not call any fouls for the Spurs when the Lakers and Spurs meet next year.
The Bad: Pau Gasol continues to be soft and Lakers fans start wondering if they wouldn't have been better with one of the talented players available at this pick, Javarris Crittenton, and Marc Gasol.
My Guess: The Gasol trade won't look as lopsided next season but the Lakers won't care as they should be primed to make anoter run at the trophy. Joe Crawford has no impact on anything except a minor European league.

Phoenix Suns
The Good: Robin Lopez adds some needed defensive intensity to the frontcourt and in a few years Goran Dragic comes over and becomes a possible point guard for the future.
The Bad: Robin Lopez decides to live off of girlfriend Michelle Wie's money and doesn't care about basketball. Dragic never amounts to anything.
My Guess: Dragic sounds like an intriguing prospect but when you're a point guard and you need to work on shooting and turnover then I'm probably not going to hold out hope that he'll be the answer in the future. Robin Lopez could actually improve to be a better player than his brother but I'm not sure he made more sense than other players on the board. He was a safe pick as he'll probably be, at the very least, a Jeff Foster type who'll stick around the league for years but Phoenix might have been better off taking a flyer on a player with a higher ceiling.

Sacramento Kings
The Good: Jason Thompson becomes a great complement to Kevin Martin and Spencer Hawes and the Kings have three key pieces for their future. Sean Singletary proves to be a solid backup PG and Patrick Ewing Jr. wins the dunk contest.
The Bad: Ron Artest watches the draft, sees the pick, and opts out of his contract. Thompson is another perimeter big man who had no business going in the lottery, let alone the first round. Singletary and Ewing Jr. both don't make it out of the pre-season and end up overseas or in the D-league.
My Guess: As soon as I saw the Kings take Thompson, I said, "This is going to drive Artest to leave." Lo and behold, Artest announced he's changed "100 degrees" and opted out. (EDIT: Apparently Artest went the other 260 degrees as he's now decided not to opt out) Thompson is soft and can't defend which makes him a terrible complement to Hawes. I'd honestly be surprised if he could beat out Shelden Williams or Kenny Thomas for playing time. Singletary might be a nice backup but he's probably not someone you want actually getting many minutes. With two second rounders, the Kings should have taken a flyer on Bill Walker. Right now, the Kings are looking like the frontrunners for the #1 pick in the 2009 Draft.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

As I was watching this draft, I thought it was one of the dumber drafts I'd ever seen. One strange pick after another, talented players falling, some odd trades, it was just an strange strange evening.

After a couple of days though, I just don't know what to make of it. With so many freshman in the draft and the upperclassmen also being question marks, it was one of the hardest drafts to peg. Who knows how it will pan out? This being so, I'm going to go through some of the best and worst case scenarios for the teams and then put out my guess of how draft night will pan out for the teams. So here's the Best/Worst/My Best Guess for the Central Division.

Milwaukee Bucks
The Good: Richard Jefferson gives the team the punch they lacked and Joe Alexander fits in as a small, athletic power forward for an up-tempo offense. Luc Mbah a Moute gives them a defensive specialist off of the bench.
The Bad: The Bucks soon realize that they have a team full of small forwards, Andrew Bogut, and below-average point guards. Ramon Sessions and Mo Williams can't handle running the show and Jefferson and Redd prove themselves to be overrated and overpaid. Luc is out of the league in a couple of years.
My Guess: Jefferson should help change the culture of the team, especially on the defensive end but he and Redd are both overpaid. While I like Ramon Sessions, I'm not sure if he is a starting point guard (which Mo Williams has spent the last couple years showing he isn't). The Bucks had a lot of options at their pick and Joe Alexander was one of the worst. DJ Augustin would have helped at the point. They could have taken Jerryd Bayless and moved him for Jarrett Jack and the #13 (where they could have grabbed a big man). Or they could have just held onto Bayless and looked to move Redd. New Bucks GM John Hammond didn't distinguish himself on draft night and now needs to work some magic to get this roster into shape. Right now, they'd have to overachieve to even make the playoffs.

Indiana Pacers
The Good: TJ Ford shows that he is one of the top young PG's in the game while Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert provide immediate help for the Pacers who make the playoffs. In a year, they use their expiring contracts and Mike Dunleavy Jr. to land a good big man in a trade (or sign-and-trade) and end up with a lineup like Ford, Rush, Danny Granger, Shawn Marion, and Roy Hibbert. Jarrett Jack becomes one of the better sixth men in the league and Josh McRoberts listens to Larry Bird and begins to live up to his potential.
The Bad: Jerryd Bayless becomes an All-Star and nobody ever forgets this draft as the day that Larry Bird dealt Bayless for an injury-prone underachiever. Hibbert is nothing more than a spot starter/bench big and can't hold a candle to the players who went after him. Jermaine O'Neal turns back the clock while the Pacers deal with injury issues with Ford, Rush, Tinsley, and Dunleavy Jr.
My Guess: I think Rush and Hibbert will be solid players with long NBA careers but neither of them will amount to Jerryd Bayless. Jermaine O'Neal will have a great season as Chris Bosh's #2. TJ Ford will have a comeback player of the year type season but it won't be enough to lead the Pacers to the playoffs.  Wanting to win now, the Pacers use their young talent and draft pick next season to land a veteran player who might help them get to the second round, at best. The Pacers fans settle for more years of mediocrity.

Detroit Pistons
The Good: Walter Sharpe proves to be a bigger steal than Jason Maxiell and the Pistons don't miss Rasheed Wallace who they trade for more young talent. Trent Plaisted becomes a solid backup big man and the Pistons take a little step back but are poised to make another run at the title in the near future.
The Bad: None of the draft picks pan out, DJ White proves to be a solid NBA player, and this goes down as Joe's worst non-Darko moment as a GM.
My Guess: Honestly, I have no idea since I didn't know who Walter Sharpe was. Right now my guess is that Sharpe becomes another Amir Johnson who gets a lot of hype for improving but never really seems to amount to much on the floor.

Cleveland Cavaliers
The Good: J.J. Hickson shows great promise and improves faster than expected while Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun become important role players for the Cavs, convincing LeBron James that he shouldn't leave when his contract is due.
The Bad: J.J. Hickson, Darnell Jackson, and Sasha Kaun are all busts. LeBron starts looking at real estate in New York.
My Guess: Hickson sounds like a role player at best and even if he does pan out, it won't be in the next two years. Jackson and Kaun aren't going to bring anything special to the table and none of the trio are going to help the Cavs get anyone in a trade. Not only did the Cavs not get the best possible talent at #17 but the pick itself probably had more value in a trade than Hickson does now. Donte Greene, Darrell Arthur, and even Nicholas Batum made more sense both in talent and trade potential. The Cavs are now in a worse than they were before Draft Day 2008 and if things don't change this offseason, LeBron will be getting antsy. Danny Ferry is going to have to work some magic this off-season if he wants to save his job and prevent LeBron from leaving in the near future.

Chicago Bulls
The Good: The Bulls return to their winning ways as Derrick Rose helps bring them back to the playoffs. Ty Thomas blossoms playing alongside the true PG and Kirk Hinrich settle into the 2-guard spot and bounces back from a bad year. Rose helps Luol Deng blossom into the max player Deng's agent thinks he is.
The Bad: Michael Beasley and OJ Mayo shine, Ben Gordon signs elsewhere and lives up to being the #3 pick in the draft, and Rose struggles to pick up the NBA game. New coach Vinny Del Negro can't unite the team and the Bulls underperform with Hinrich's decline continuing and Ty Thomas becoming lazier and more of a bust. The Knicks are the worst team in the league and the second round pick that the Bulls owned and traded for Omer Asik turns out to be a good player.
My Guess: Rose fits in well but isn't the be-all, end-all that Bulls fans hoped. Still, with his play helping Hinrich, Deng, and Thomas blossom, the Bulls make the playoffs. Ben Gordon, however, leaves and signs with a team that utilizes him correctly while Michael Beasley garners Rookie of the Year honors so the critics begin to wonder if Gordon and Beasley should have been the way the Bulls went this offseason.

Posted by SoulHonky at 11:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This draft is a complete crap shoot. WIth only five upperclassmen in the consensus first round and only one in the consensus top 10 (and that one being the uber-raw Joe Alexander at that) it's almost impossible to peg who should go where. After the top three (or four if you are high on Jerryd Bayless) there's little to no separation between #4 and #24. I think Kevin Love at #5 makes as much sense as Donte Green. So whom should take who? 

1. Miami Heat: Michael Beasley
The Heat pull the trigger on the Wade for #1, Ty Thomas, and Larry Hughes trade.  Afraid that Dwyane is on the Penny Express, the Heat pull the trigger to get younger and snag the point guard that could get Pat Riley to unseat his current head coach in a year or two. They also add a young player in Thomas who could pan out to be a Josh Smith type combo-forward. The Bulls weather Wade's injury history to add the superstar they've been waiting for. The lineup of Hinrich, Wade, Deng, Nocioni, and Noah could stir up some trouble in the East but, then again, if Wade goes down with another injury, John Paxson's days as a GM will be numbered.

2.  Miami Heat: Derrick Rose
If the Heat don't make this trade, they should seriously consider OJ Mayo over Derrick Rose. I probably wouldn't be able to pull the trigger on OJ over Rose but I think Mayo has as good of a chance to be a star player and he is also a better fit alongside Wade. However if the trade goes down, I'd love to see Rose running the point with Beasley and Marion on the wings (if they decide to keep Marion).

3. Minnesota Timberwolves: OJ Mayo
Mayo is the no-brainer pick here (and I wouldn't be stunned if Pat Riley decided to try to get a new version of Isiah/Dumars and draft Mayo and Rose). If the Wolves take any of the available big men and this spot, the entire front office should be banned from working in the NBA ever again. At the very least, they have to take Mayo here and trade down to one of the many teams that are trying to get him.

4. Seattle Supersonics: Jerryd Bayless
The key to this pick is moving Bayless to the 2 and Durant to the 3. If they try to use Bayless and Durant in the backcourt, it won't work. Neither guy has the playmaking skills to effectively run the offense and I just don't think you want to run the offense through Jeff Green at the 3.

5. Memphis Grizzles: Eric Gordon
Conley and Gordon will make for a small backcourt but Gordon's strength should make up for some of their shortcomings. The big men available simply aren't that enticing especially when the Grizlles have a late pick with which they can grab a PF.

6. New York Knicks: Russell Westbrook
If someone is dumb enough to take Zach Randolph and the #6 the Knicks should jump at the chance. I almost don't even care who they are getting in return (as long as their contract is no longer than two years). I'm sure some GM will be dumb enough to make that deal but for my mock draft, the Knicks are stuck with the pick and add a nice complement to Jamal Crawford (or Nate Robinson). Westbrook is a defensive-minded guard who can run the show while Crawford and Nasty Nate focus on scoring.

7. Memphis Grizzles: Anthony Randolph
The Grizz pick up a power forward prospect who should fit into their up-tempo scheme in a deal with Los Angeles. They send Kyle Lowry and Mike Miller to Memphis for Cuttino Mobley, #7, #35 and possibly the future Minnesota Timberwolves pick that is owed to them. It's top 10 protected through 2011 but given the Wolves track record, there's a good chance that the Grizz could net another high draft pick from this. The Clippers add a starting PG and shooting guard for their trouble.

8. Milwaukee Bucks: Joe Alexander
I don't really buy the Joe Alexander hype but he seems like a Scott Skiles type of guy and the kind of draft pick that might not be a star but should be a helpful player for a long time. Those things, plus the fact that there is still that hope that his potential hasn't been touched, is why the Bucks add him to the lineup.

9. Charlotte Bobcats:  Kevin Love
Love is another player I am skeptical about but with Gerald Wallace on one side and Emeka Okafor on the other, his defensive issues should be held in check on the Bobcats. Also, he's an old school player who should fit in well with Larry Brown (although Love does have himself quite the ego).  If the 'Cats can deal the pick for a big man, I think they do that but I'm just not sure what they can really work out before the draft.

10. New Jersey Nets: Brook Lopez
Lopez has his doubters (and I'm one of them) but he's a solid big man and should fit in nicely alongside Sean Williams and Nenad Krstic. That's not a bad big man rotation.

11. Toronto Raptors: Danilo Gallinari
The Raptors acquire another pick and select Andrea Bargnani's compatriot. They give up TJ Ford but also take back Jamaal Tinsley. The Pacers are just happy to rid themselves of Mel Mel the Abuser and his off the court issues. The Pacers might get a future protected first rounder as well.

12. New Jersey Nets: Donte Green
The Nets clear cap space and move up in the draft by swapping Richard Jefferson, Marcus Williams, and #21 for Ron Artest, Kenny Thomas, #12. Artest lets the Nets continute to compete while also giving them a shorter contract in order to open up the books for the great free agent class of 2010. The Kings get a good young SF who is locked into a contract (and thus won't be high-tailing it out of Sactown) as well as a promising young point guard. And to be bonest, in this draft, the difference between 12 and 21 could be minimal. The Nets consider Brandon Rush but decide to use this pick on Donte Green's upside.

13. Phoenix Suns: Brandon Rush
I'm not sure about the exact details of the trade but Leandro Barbosa to Portland for the #13 and a player or two seems like the best bet. Barbosa is almost an ideal PG for the Blazers because they already have Brandon Roy running the show at the 2 so they can use a score-first PG like Barbosa. The Suns get the guard they want in Rush.

14. Milwaukee Bucks: DJ Augustin
The Bucks deal Charlie Villanueva and #37 for the 14th pick where they add a PG in DJ Augustin. The Warriors really had little interest in this pick and Charlie seems like the kind of player who could flourish in Nellie's system.

15. Phoenix Suns: Mareese Speights
With a second pick, the Suns can take a gamble and Speights is worth the risk. He would give the Suns a hell of a twin towers with him and Amare. The problem is whether or not he has the attitude and motor to ever reach his potential.

16. Philadelphia 76ers: Darrell Arthur
The best move might be to package this pick with Andre Miller, who sounds like he's going to be leaving Philly after next season.  However, if the Sixers can't find a good deal, they should probably go for Arthur, who could be a nice complement to Thad Young at the forward spot. All of the big man prospects now are hit-or-miss but I think Arthur has the best shot at being, at the very least, servicable.

17. Toronto Raptors: Chris Douglas-Roberts
CDR and his rather unorthodox style is usually the type of player I would shy away from but the Raptors don't need a big man and Roberts looks to be the best fit and the only shooting guard worth taking this high. His defense will be key and, at the very least, you hope that he's a step up from Jamario Moon.

18. Washington Wizards: Roy Hibbert 
Hibbert stays home and the Wiz add a solid big man who should help out immediately. I'm sure during his first tour of the NBA, a lot of GM's will be thanking him for taking his name out of last year's draft and saving them from wasting a top lotto pick on him.

19. Cleveland Cavaliers:  DeAndre Jordan
This late in the draft, there's really not much left for the Cavs to choose from. Mario Chalmers is an option but the Cavs seems happy with Delonte West and Boobie Miles. Hopefully, the prospect of playing alongside LeBron James will wake Jordan up and help him reach his potential.

20. Denver Nuggets: Mario Chalmers
Chalmers can shoot and defend, making him a nice complement to A.I. He'll be great in the Eric Snow role.

21. Sacramento Kings: Robin Lopez
Dropping down in the draft, the Kings still get a nice prospect with upside. If they want offense, they could go after Mareese Speights but Lopez seems like a better fit alongside Spencer Hawes.

22. Orlando Magic: Alexis Ajinca
The Magic might have a huge steal and this point in the draft or they could have a guy that will sit around and laugh with Fran Vazquez about how they'll never come over to the US.

23. Utah Jazz:  Courtney Lee
Nothing great but could prove to be a solid role player for the Jazz. 

24. Seattle Supersonics: Serge Ibaka
The Sonics use their last pick on a foreigner that they'll stash overseas for a couple of years. 

25. Houston Rockets:  Nicolas Batum
It's been one thing after another with this overhyped sensation but the Rockets decide to take a flyer on him.

26. San Antonio Spurs: Kosta Koufos
I know he's the new mover in the draft but there's something I just don't like about the kid.

27. New Orleans Hornets: Bill Walker
I still hate the Peja signing and Walker give the Hornets another option at the SF and someone else who could take advantage of Paul's alleyoops.

28. Memphis Grizzlies: JJ Hickson
The Grizz add another young big man to their stable. 

29. Detroit Pistons: Jamont Gordon
Worst case scenario, he becomes Lindsay Hunter's heir apparent but more likely he becomes a super-sub for the Pisons.

30: Boston Celtics: Keith Brumbaugh
Ante Tomic sounds like a guy that will never pan out, Javale McGee doesn't sound like much of anything, and all of the other big men seem like Leon Powe clones. The C's might as well give the former Mr. Florida a shot. He's had MAJOR character issues which makes this choice highly unlikely but at 30, the Celtics can give the kid a shot.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I understand the use of statistics but I always hate when people act like they are the be all and end all, especially in terms of talent evaluation. John Hollinger's latest pieces on ESPN.com are perfect examples of this. He claims that his system is better but he makes as many mistakes as the NBA talent evaluators and many of his errors are far more egregious. Personally, I'm not sure how you can look at this year's draft, run a metric that lists the following 15 players as the best, and still act like your system is a sound one.

Here's Hollinger's top 15:

1. Michael Beasley
2. Kevin Love
3. Darrell Arthur
4. Mareese Speights
5. DJ Augustin
6. Derrick Rose
7. Joe Alexander
8. Brook Lopez
9. Mario Chalmers
10. Jerryd Bayless
11. Roy Hibbert
12. Kosta Koufos
13. Donte Green
14. Darnell Jackson
15. DeAndre Jordan

I'm sorry but a drunk, blindfolded Kevin McHale could come up with a better list than this.  

Posted by SoulHonky at 10:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This draft is a complete crap shoot. WIth only five upperclassmen in the consensus first round and only one in the consensus top 10 (and that one being the uber-raw Joe Alexander at that) it's almost impossible to peg who should go where. After the top three (or four if you are high on Jerryd Bayless) there's little to no separation between #4 and #24. I think Kevin Love at #5 makes as much sense as Donte Green. So whom should take who? 

1. Miami Heat: Michael Beasley
The Heat pull the trigger on the Wade for #1, Ty Thomas, and Larry Hughes trade.  Afraid that Dwyane is on the Penny Express, the Heat pull the trigger to get younger and snag the point guard that could get Pat Riley to unseat his current head coach in a year or two. They also add a young player in Thomas who could pan out to be a Josh Smith type combo-forward. The Bulls weather Wade's injury history to add the superstar they've been waiting for. The lineup of Hinrich, Wade, Deng, Nocioni, and Noah could stir up some trouble in the East but, then again, if Wade goes down with another injury, John Paxson's days as a GM will be numbered.

2.  Miami Heat: Derrick Rose
If the Heat don't make this trade, they should seriously consider OJ Mayo over Derrick Rose. I probably wouldn't be able to pull the trigger on OJ over Rose but I think Mayo has as good of a chance to be a star player and he is also a better fit alongside Wade. However if the trade goes down, I'd love to see Rose running the point with Beasley and Marion on the wings (if they decide to keep Marion).

3. Minnesota Timberwolves: OJ Mayo
Mayo is the no-brainer pick here (and I wouldn't be stunned if Pat Riley decided to try to get a new version of Isiah/Dumars and draft Mayo and Rose). If the Wolves take any of the available big men and this spot, the entire front office should be banned from working in the NBA ever again. At the very least, they have to take Mayo here and trade down to one of the many teams that are trying to get him.

4. Seattle Supersonics: Jerryd Bayless
The key to this pick is moving Bayless to the 2 and Durant to the 3. If they try to use Bayless and Durant in the backcourt, it won't work. Neither guy has the playmaking skills to effectively run the offense and I just don't think you want to run the offense through Jeff Green at the 3.

5. Memphis Grizzles: Eric Gordon
Conley and Gordon will make for a small backcourt but Gordon's strength should make up for some of their shortcomings. The big men available simply aren't that enticing especially when the Grizlles have a late pick with which they can grab a PF.

6. New York Knicks: Russell Westbrook
If someone is dumb enough to take Zach Randolph and the #6 the Knicks should jump at the chance. I almost don't even care who they are getting in return (as long as their contract is no longer than two years). I'm sure some GM will be dumb enough to make that deal but for my mock draft, the Knicks are stuck with the pick and add a nice complement to Jamal Crawford (or Nate Robinson). Westbrook is a defensive-minded guard who can run the show while Crawford and Nasty Nate focus on scoring.

7. Memphis Grizzles: Anthony Randolph
The Grizz pick up a power forward prospect who should fit into their up-tempo scheme in a deal with Los Angeles. They send Kyle Lowry and Mike Miller to Memphis for Cuttino Mobley, #7, #35 and possibly the future Minnesota Timberwolves pick that is owed to them. It's top 10 protected through 2011 but given the Wolves track record, there's a good chance that the Grizz could net another high draft pick from this. The Clippers add a starting PG and shooting guard for their trouble.

8. Milwaukee Bucks: Joe Alexander
I don't really buy the Joe Alexander hype but he seems like a Scott Skiles type of guy and the kind of draft pick that might not be a star but should be a helpful player for a long time. Those things, plus the fact that there is still that hope that his potential hasn't been touched, is why the Bucks add him to the lineup.

9. Charlotte Bobcats:  Kevin Love
Love is another player I am skeptical about but with Gerald Wallace on one side and Emeka Okafor on the other, his defensive issues should be held in check on the Bobcats. Also, he's an old school player who should fit in well with Larry Brown (although Love does have himself quite the ego).  If the 'Cats can deal the pick for a big man, I think they do that but I'm just not sure what they can really work out before the draft.

10. New Jersey Nets: Brook Lopez
Lopez has his doubters (and I'm one of them) but he's a solid big man and should fit in nicely alongside Sean Williams and Nenad Krstic. That's not a bad big man rotation.

11. Toronto Raptors: Danilo Gallinari
The Raptors acquire another pick and select Andrea Bargnani's compatriot. They give up TJ Ford but also take back Jamaal Tinsley. The Pacers are just happy to rid themselves of Mel Mel the Abuser and his off the court issues. The Pacers might get a future protected first rounder as well.

12. New Jersey Nets: Donte Green
The Nets clear cap space and move up in the draft by swapping Richard Jefferson, Marcus Williams, and #21 for Ron Artest, Kenny Thomas, #12. Artest lets the Nets continute to compete while also giving them a shorter contract in order to open up the books for the great free agent class of 2010. The Kings get a good young SF who is locked into a contract (and thus won't be high-tailing it out of Sactown) as well as a promising young point guard. And to be bonest, in this draft, the difference between 12 and 21 could be minimal. The Nets consider Brandon Rush but decide to use this pick on Donte Green's upside.

13. Phoenix Suns: Brandon Rush
I'm not sure about the exact details of the trade but Leandro Barbosa to Portland for the #13 and a player or two seems like the best bet. Barbosa is almost an ideal PG for the Blazers because they already have Brandon Roy running the show at the 2 so they can use a score-first PG like Barbosa. The Suns get the guard they want in Rush.

14. Milwaukee Bucks: DJ Augustin
The Bucks deal Charlie Villanueva and #37 for the 14th pick where they add a PG in DJ Augustin. The Warriors really had little interest in this pick and Charlie seems like the kind of player who could flourish in Nellie's system.

15. Phoenix Suns: Mareese Speights
With a second pick, the Suns can take a gamble and Speights is worth the risk. He would give the Suns a hell of a twin towers with him and Amare. The problem is whether or not he has the attitude and motor to ever reach his potential.

16. Philadelphia 76ers: Darrell Arthur
The best move might be to package this pick with Andre Miller, who sounds like he's going to be leaving Philly after next season.  However, if the Sixers can't find a good deal, they should probably go for Arthur, who could be a nice complement to Thad Young at the forward spot. All of the big man prospects now are hit-or-miss but I think Arthur has the best shot at being, at the very least, servicable.

17. Toronto Raptors: Chris Douglas-Roberts
CDR and his rather unorthodox style is usually the type of player I would shy away from but the Raptors don't need a big man and Roberts looks to be the best fit and the only shooting guard worth taking this high. His defense will be key and, at the very least, you hope that he's a step up from Jamario Moon.

18. Washington Wizards: Roy Hibbert 
Hibbert stays home and the Wiz add a solid big man who should help out immediately. I'm sure during his first tour of the NBA, a lot of GM's will be thanking him for taking his name out of last year's draft and saving them from wasting a top lotto pick on him.

19. Cleveland Cavaliers:  DeAndre Jordan
This late in the draft, there's really not much left for the Cavs to choose from. Mario Chalmers is an option but the Cavs seems happy with Delonte West and Boobie Miles. Hopefully, the prospect of playing alongside LeBron James will wake Jordan up and help him reach his potential.

20. Denver Nuggets: Mario Chalmers
Chalmers can shoot and defend, making him a nice complement to A.I. He'll be great in the Eric Snow role.

21. Sacramento Kings: Robin Lopez
Dropping down in the draft, the Kings still get a nice prospect with upside. If they want offense, they could go after Mareese Speights but Lopez seems like a better fit alongside Spencer Hawes.

22. Orlando Magic: Alexis Ajinca
The Magic might have a huge steal and this point in the draft or they could have a guy that will sit around and laugh with Fran Vazquez about how they'll never come over to the US.

23. Utah Jazz:  Courtney Lee
Nothing great but could prove to be a solid role player for the Jazz. 

24. Seattle Supersonics: Serge Ibaka
The Sonics use their last pick on a foreigner that they'll stash overseas for a couple of years. 

25. Houston Rockets:  Nicolas Batum
It's been one thing after another with this overhyped sensation but the Rockets decide to take a flyer on him.

26. San Antonio Spurs: Kosta Koufos
I know he's the new mover in the draft but there's something I just don't like about the kid.

27. New Orleans Hornets: Bill Walker
I still hate the Peja signing and Walker give the Hornets another option at the SF and someone else who could take advantage of Paul's alleyoops.

28. Memphis Grizzlies: JJ Hickson
The Grizz add another young big man to their stable. 

29. Detroit Pistons: Jamont Gordon
Worst case scenario, he becomes Lindsay Hunter's heir apparent but more likely he becomes a super-sub for the Pisons.

30: Boston Celtics: Keith Brumbaugh
Ante Tomic sounds like a guy that will never pan out, Javale McGee doesn't sound like much of anything, and all of the other big men seem like Leon Powe clones. The C's might as well give the former Mr. Florida a shot. He's had MAJOR character issues which makes this choice highly unlikely but at 30, the Celtics can give the kid a shot.

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

While I can just sit back and enjoy the Celtics right now, let's see how other teams might be faring come draft day. 

1. Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose
The last few drafts, Jon Paxson has drafted athletic big men who can run the floor. Wouldn't it make sense to finally add the point guard that can help them get going rather than adding yet another athletic big man? The Bulls core is the homegrown Rose and Deng with Ty Thomas getting one more chance. Paxson's next move should be to look to move the rest of his rag-tag crew to build around this unit.

2. Miami Heat: Michael Beasley
Pat Riley doesn't get his man but he gets a perfect complement to Dwayne Wade and Shawn Marion (if he can get Marion to stay). If Marion opts out, Beasley simply takes over his spot. In the end, no one pick is going to salvage the Heat this year. Next year, however, the Heat will have cap space and two expiring deals to work with in the offseason.

3. Denver Nuggets (via Minny): OJ Mayo
Honestly, I'm not a fan of Denver dealing 'Melo but this could be the way it happens. The Nuggets give up 'Melo, JR Smith, and Marcus Camby to New Jersey and get back Richard Jefferson, #3 pick, Sean Williams and Marko Jaric (or Antoine Walker's expiring deal - he has a team option after next year). Minnesota gets J.R. Smith in a sign & trade, the #7 and #21 picks.

- Jaric is overpaid but he's a solid defender and I actually think he's a perfect complement to AI in the backcourt. AI, Jaric, Jefferson, K-Mart, Nene with OJ Mayo and Sean Williams off the pine. In the end, I'd still stick with 'Melo but this is the team that improves defensively and is perfectly suited to feed off of Iverson.

- The Nets get 'Melo and Camby to go with Devin Harris, Vince Carter, and Nenad Krstic.

- The Wolves pick up 2 picks and a shooting guard with a load of potential who should be able to light it up when teams double-team Big Al Jefferson. 

4. Seattle Supersonics: Jerryd Bayless
I'm not sure if Bayless is really the type of point guard that Seattle needs but he'll help keep some of the pressure off of Kevin Durant. 

5. Memphis Grizzlies: Brook Lopez
They are hoping to get the next Pau Gasol but they might just be getting the new Darko Milicic. 

6. Milwaukee Bucks (via NY): Danilo Gallinari
Mike D'Antoni wants to win now and he makes his first big move by dealing Stephon Marbury, #8 pick, and David Lee for Michael Redd and Mo Williams.  It's the first of many moves by GM Donnie Walsh.

7. LA Clippers: Russell Westbrook
If the 'Melo deal doesn't happen, I woudn't be stunned to see the Clips make a run at OJ Mayo. I considered trades for Baron Davis or Gil Arenas but the odds of a contract negotiation working out with either of those two and Donald Sterling doesn't seem like a great bet.  The Clippers opt for the local collegian Westbrook who can take over the point or handle the 2-guard spot should Shaun Livingston make it back.

8. Milwaukee Bucks:  Eric Gordon
With Gallinari, Jianlian, and Bogut making up the frontcourt of the future, the Bucks add a scoring option at the 2 with Eric Gordon.

9. Detroit Pistons (from Charlotte): Anthony Randolph
In a stunning move, the Pistons decide, after getting knocked off by the Celtics, that it is time to reload. They strike a deal with the main players being Chauncey Billups and #29 to the Bobcats for Raymond Felton and the #8 pick, where they take Randolph. 

10. Minnesota Timberwolves (from NJ): Kevin Love
McHale gets the big white guy to team alongside Big Al Jefferson, Corey Brewer, J.R. Smith and Randy Foye.

11. Indiana Pacers: D.J. Augustin
When Jamaal Tinsley and Travis Diener are your PG's, you really need to start investing draft picks in the position. 

12. Sacramento Kings:  Donte Greene
With Ron Artest on the way out, the Kings add their SF of the future in Donte Greene. 

13. Portland Trailblazers: Chase Buddinger
Chase's problems are defense and aggressiveness. But with Oden behind him and the tons of young talent around him, those weaknesses shouldn't be all that troubling in Portland. 

14. Golden St. Warriors: Joe Alexander
They add a shooter to the future core of Ellis, Wright, and Biedrins. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Note from Self: Yeah it's a little late for that.

I've never been the biggest believer in Chad Ford and his Euro-lust has made me laugh but recently that has subsided and he's gone in the opposite direction. If Chad Ford decides he doesn't like a Euro, Chad Ford is going to take shots at him whenever he can. So while Ford was hyping up Darko years after most people had given up on him, he's quick to throw others under the bus.  In a recent article, he discussed the dropping enthusiasm surrounding European players and said part of the reason was "backlash from a number of seemingly high-profile Euro busts, including Darko Milicic, Andrea Bargnani and Marco Belinelli."

OK, it's nice to see that Chad is off of the Darko train and I agree that Bargnani has a LOT to prove if he wants to seem like a worthwhile top 5 pick, let alone #1, but Marco Belinelli? The 18th pick who played for a coach who isn't exactly fond of giving minutes to rookies is a bust? Unfortunately for Marco, Chad Ford was never particularly high on him. He thought he was a late first/second round talent and thought he was equal to guys like Derrick Byars, Nick Fazekas, Taurean Green, and Marcus Williams.

Now while Marco certainly didn't live up to the hype that he built up after the summer league, it's a little early to dismiss the guy. It's especially early if you're an NBA writer who's still copping pleas for Pavel Podkolzine.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

With the opening weekend of the tournament gone, and most of the elite prospects gone with it, it's time to look at these young players to see if they should declare for the draft or stay in another year.

To start off, there's one thing that all guards should think about; the NCAA is moving the three point line back so they need to figure out how that will impact their success. If it is going to expose their shot, they might want to consider leaving while they still have the gaudy three point numbers. 

Also, the asterisk if for people like JJ Hickson, who has declared but hasn't signed an agent so he can still choose to go back to school. 

Michael Beasley: Declare
Beasley is the #1 pick and there's no reason for him to stay. He needs to be up with the pros to really improve his game.

Derrick Rose: Declare
Rose isn't going to learn how to run an offense in Memphis' system so staying in school isn't going to help him. If anything, Rose's year has shown that Memphis isn't the place for pure point guards (but is the perfect situation for 'tweeners).

Chris Douglas-Roberts: Declare
He's not going to get much better in Memphis's system and he might as well leave with Rose and Dorsey.


Blake Griffin: Stay 
Griffin could make a case for the third pick in the draft (or second, if Memphis gets the #2 pick) but he seems like the guy whose stock could fall in workouts. He needs to work on his jumper a little more to truly be a top prospect.  He should look at the word that Ryan Gomes did in his senior yet to make himself a more complete player and follow suit.

DeAndre Jordan: Declare*
Jordan should declare but not sign with an agent. With a couple of workouts, he should be able to figure out whether or not he's a top pick. Also, he needs to see what other young bigs are doing. If people like Hasheem Thabeet, Blake Griffin, and Mareese Speights stay in, Jordan might be better off testing the waters this season.

Jeryd Bayless: Declare
Bayless needs to learn how to play the point guard position but that's not going to happen at Arizona since they are bringing in #1 point guard recruit Brandon Jennings next year. Bayless's stock can't get any higher than it is right now.

Chase Budinger: Stay
Buddinger has basically shown that he isn't going to be a leading man in the NBA. What he really needs is a year in which he helps take the reins of his team and shows that he's a complete player. The extended three point line should benefit Budinger as he'll be able to take advantage of his pull-up jumper more. 

Eric Gordon: Declare*
Normally I'd say that anyone who is a lock for a top 10 pick should leave school outright but Gordon has struggled of late and his disappearing act in the NCAA's isn't going to help his stock any. Add in the fact that Ben Gordon has had such a rough season and NBA GM's might not look at Eric as kindly as they might have in the past. It also doesn't help that most of the lotto teams already have an undersized two-guard and probably aren't looking to add another one.  A couple of so-so workouts and Gordon could slide all the way to the late teens. He might want to hedge his bet in case it turns out he'd be better off using this offseason to work on his handle/PG skills and boost his stock.

Brook Lopez: Declare
His stock can't get any higher.

Robin Lopez: Stay
He needs to develop more and a year of being the man in the middle (sans his twin brother) should help him establish himself as his own man as opposed to just being The Other Lopez brother. He might also want to cut his hair because nobody's using a lotto pick on the next Anderson Varejao.

Darren Collison: Declare
Personally, I wouldn't risk another knee injury if I was Collison. I can't imagine he'll be able to do anything next year that would make him more than the mid-first round pick that he already is so it's probably better to leave now and get that guarenteed contract rather than risking another knee injury. 

Russell Westbrook: Declare*
Right now I think Westbrook is a lot of hype and needs some work to make it in the NBA. Then again, his stock is absurdly high right now and could likely decline next season when he's fighting prized freshman Jrue Holliday and Malcolm Lee for playing time. If Westbrook can get through the workouts and still maintain his lottery position, he should stay in the draft and learn on the job. If not, he might be better off staying for another season in Westwood.

Kevin Love: Declare
Love's weakness aren't anything that he can fix. Unless someone finds a way to make him quicker and taller, he is what he is. If he continues his nice tournament run, he should use that as his launching pad to the NBA.

OJ Mayo: Declare
Staying isn't out of the question for Mayo. USC is getting an elite SG Demar DeRozan next year so Mayo could take over the point guard spot and help lead the team. That could help him fix a lot of his tarnished reputation. On the other hand, he could become the second best guard on his own team. In the end, I don't think there's any way for Mayo to match the hype that preceded him and he's better off taking his game to the NBA and learning how to run an NBA squad.

Mareese Speights: Declare* 
Speights is a dark horse because he's under the radar right now but he has the size and talent to play himself into the #3 pick with some good workouts. Right now, a lot of the big man competition is questionable and Speights could take advantage of it. The biggest problem, of course, is work ethic. Billy Donovan all but called out Speights by name as being disappointing this season and not having the mentality of a winner. It's in Speights and the Gators' best interests to have him declare. If Mareese is as good as he thinks he is, he'll outplay the likes or Lopez, Jordan, and Hibbert and earn a spot at the top of the draft. If not, he'll realize he has a lot to work on and should come back with a renewed focus.

DeAndre Jordan: Declare*
DeAndre Jordan doesn't really know how to play basketball. The guy can't shoot, is a walking turnover, and got his stuff tossed back in his face multiple times by Kevin Love in their tournament game. Yet he's still being called a top 10 pick. How can he not take advantage of his potential and sell high? When's a big man developed out of Texas A&M? And if Jordan does develop as people think he could and become a Dwight Howard-type, he's much better off in the NBA rather than the NCAA's where big men getting into foul trouble off of ticky-tack calls happens.

Anthony Randolph: Stay
Randolph needs to establish himself more. If he comes out now, he'll likely fall into the mid-first round.  Unless he considers himself a fraud who will never blossom, he should stay in and become a player.

DJ Augustin: Declare 
Many experts are saying that Augustin is a sure-fire lotto pick and he reminds them of Jameer Nelson. DJ needs to come out before these experts realize that that doesn't exactly make sense. 

Hasheem Thabeet: Stay
He might want to consider testing the waters but he's all-raw potential and likely wont' be able to work his way past most of the big men who are already ranked about him.

Ty Lawson: Declare
It doesn't seem like the UNC faithful have been very faithful to him (questioning why he was out with an injury) and I think the extended three point line is going to hurt him more than other PG's.  

Tyler Hansbrough: Stay
He loves college and is a better college player than pro prospect.

Donte Green: Declare*
I just don't see Green getting better at Syracuse. He's going to be playing a zone and not working on his man defense. He's already standing around too much on offense and I don't see that changing at all. While the initial reports were that he was like Rashard Lewis, he seems more like Shawne Williams.

Darrell Arthur: Stay
Arthur missed his chance to skate by on his potential last year. He's going to need to show some actual production and improvement in order to get his name back into lotto consideration.

Brandon Rush: Declare 
Rush is someone else who shouldn't risk another injury and he's also a player that is probably better off landing on a contender than being expected to step in as a starter from day 1.

Posted by SoulHonky at 01:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)