Can Danny?

The 2008 draft is shaping up to be a very deep draft with quality players popping up all over the place. The last time we had a draft this deep is was the year before high school kids were required to go to college for one year. Just like a number of kids bolted early in '05, this year was highlighted by a ridiculous amount of freshman in the draft. So how does it shake up? Some of the comparisons are, admittedly, tenuous at best but the drafts are surprisingly similar.

1. Andrew Bogut = Kevin Love

The quality player who will stay in the league for a long time, constantly give his team hope that he might take it to the next level, but ultimately won't ever amount to being more than a role player. While Bogut has to deal with going ahead of Deron Williams AND Chris Paul, Love has to deal with the fact that he was actually traded for Mayo.

2. Marvin Williams = Danilo Gallinari

Similar players, neither is a SF but they can't handle themselves in the 4 spot for more than limited minutes. Williams was a bust his first couple of years but has improved into a quality role player. I could see Gallinari doing the same. 

3. Deron Williams = OJ Mayo

In both cases, their team traded up (Deron from #6, OJ from #5) to grab them at #3. They both have similar scouting reports: smart player, good defense, a step too slow for NBA greatness. Both proved their critics wrong and will likely be embattled in a career long comparison with a fellow lotto point guard.

4. Chris Paul = Derrick Rose

The protypical point guards, Paul came in more advanced because he had a great shot. Paul also got teammates like David West, Peja Stojakovic, and Tyson Chandler while Rose is stuck with Drew Gooden, Kirk Hinrich, and Tyrus Thomas. Rose has a chance to be a great one but right now, he has work to do if he wants to be an MVP candidate like CP3.

5. Raymond Felton = Russell Westbrook

Like Felton, Westbrook seems to have just enough flaws to keep him from being a steady point guard and he also will spend his career being known as the guy who isn't Chris Paul and Deron Williams (or in Westbrook's case, Rose and Mayo). The fact that Westbrook's coach has said he hopes Russell models his game after Rajon Rondo says all you need to know about their confidence in Westbrook's offense. Not a slight against Rondo but when you're comparing your #4 pick to a late first rounder who just finished his second year in the pros, I think it's time to lower expectations.

6. Martell Webster = Brandon Rush

The situations are completely opposite (Rush is a known commodity while Webster was an high schooler; the Blazers traded a PG to move down to get Webster and traded Rush to move up in the draft to grab a PG) but their futures could be the same. Everything about Webster and Rush makes you think they should be stars in this league but the talent and athleticism somehow never translates into being anything more than a steady 5th starter.

7. Charlie Villenueva = Michael Beasley

Beasley is a rich man's Villain but their scouting reports were strikingly similar: super talented tweener forwards with questions about attitude. Both were seen as possible distractions to their teams. I also have to say, I wouldn't be stunned if the Heat moved Beasley to get a more veteran presence alongside Dwyane Wade.

8. Channing Frye = Kosta Koufos

If you like your big men soft and shooting 18 foot jumpers, you'll love these guys.

9. Ike Diogu =  Brook Lopez

Nice moves but it might not translate to the NBA. Lopez has size and a more complete game but I'm not sure he'll amount to as much as was hyped when he finished his freshman year. John Hollinger wrote in his scouting report, "All in all, it's a relatively safe pick -- I doubt he'll be a star, but at the absolute worst he's Chris Mihm." When that's what passes for a compliment, you probably should have spent your lotto pick elsewhere.

10. Andrew Bynum = Anthony Randolph

High potential prospects that immediately made you wonder whether the GM and the coach were on the same page.  You just know that the last thing Phil Jackson (and Kobe) wanted was a high schooler like Bynum while Randolph isn't exactly what Don Nelson looks for in a player. Still, Bynum matured to be a possible force on both ends of the floor and I believe Randolph could do the same.

11. Fran Vazquez = Alexis Ajinca

When the Magic drafted Vazquez, the fans were disappointed and then surprised when he didn't even show up. When the Bobcats drafted Ajinca, the fans were disappointed and, not surprisingly, didn't show up to watch him.

12. Yaroslav Korolev = Joe Alexander

Young, athletic, and have no business getting drafted this high. I think Alexander will be able to kick around the league longer than Korolev but he won't make much of any impact.

13. Sean May = Mareese Speights

Sean May could have been a solid power forward in this league and had a chance to be a real threat. Unfortunately, he's basically eaten himself out of the league and has no real work ethic to speak of. Speights's potential is equally high but it's up to him whether he wants to work on it or just collect his checks and become free agent fodder at the end of his rookie deal.

14. Rashard McCants = Courtney Lee

A great scorer who really doesn't do much of anything else on the basketball court. There are rumors of defense but never on a consistent basis.

15. Antoine Wright = JR Giddens

Came in to college with a lot of hype, let it go to their head (in different ways), and never lived up to being first round picks.

16. Joey Graham = Eric Gordon

'Tweeners who seem like they have NBA games but who might just end up as end of the rotation players as their skills never really translate.

17/18. Danny Granger & Gerald Green = Donte Greene & Jerryd Bayless

Who knows, both of these guys could pan out to be borderline All-Stars like Danny Granger or they could be tantalizing busts like Gerald. Right now I put Jerryd with Gerald because they were both summer league stars who really need to learn how to play the game. Bayless is far more advanced than Gerald but when it comes to running the point, he's has almost as much to learn. Greene should be able to become a Granger-like player but needs to work on his defense and expand his offensive game beyond his shooting ability.

19. Hakim Warrick = Javale McGee

Warrick was far more polished than Mcgee when he entered the draft but Javale is a PF/C which makes his energy and raw skills more useful than someone trying to find themselves between the two forward positions. McGee has a ton of potential but I'm still seeing him as someone who is better off coming off the pine than being a full time starter.

20. Julius Hodge = George Hill

Hodge and Hill seem like they should have everything it takes to make it in the league but, for some reason, it doesn't work out. I'm not damning Hill to be out of the league as soon as Hodge but right now, I'm just not sure what kind of NBA player he'll be. (Admittedly, this comparison is a HUGE reach)

21. Nate Robinson = DJ Augustin

Mighty mites who should inspire their team but aren't exactly the kind of guy you want running the point for a playoff team. Still, I wouldn't bet against either of them being able to pull it off.

22. Jarrett Jack = Nicolas Batum

Talented enough to make you think, "this kid could be a great starter" yet flawed enough to make you think, "Man, we need to get someone better to start." Batum is younger and has far more potential but I wouldn't be stunned if he leveled out to being a nice 6th man.

23. Francisco Garcia = Roy Hibbert

Guys whose NBA careers are under the radar. They are solid but are probably better off in limited roles, be it a 5th starter for Hibbert or 6th man for Garcia.

24. Luther Head = Darrell Arthur

Solid players that could start in the NBA but whom you'd rather come off the bench. 

25. Johan Petro = Robin Lopez

A good enough big man who always has you wishing he could just be a LITTLE bit better so you'd feel better about your team having to give him minutes. 

26. Jason Maxiell = JJ Hickson

A nice backup big man who people seem to think is going to become more than that. 

27. Linus Kleiza = Ryan Anderson

Guys with decent size who can shoot will always find room at the end of someone's rotation.

28. Ian Manhimi = Sergei Ibaka

I didn't know them before they were in the league and I probably won't ever notice when they are in the league (which Manhimi apparently is).

29. Wayne Simien = DJ White

Talented players who saw injuries sap their potential. They'll be lucky to stay in the league past their rookie contracts.

30. David Lee = Jason Thompson

Talented power forwards whose early success turned them from underrated surprises to overrated (and possibly overpaid) players. 

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As for the second rounders, I'm not sure that there's a Monta Ellis in the 2008 draft but:

Mario Chalmers = Louis Williams - Talented scoring point guards.

DeAndre Jordan = Chris Taft - Hyped big men who plummeted in the draft.

Chris Douglas-Roberts = CJ Miles - Look good, can play well, but never get it together in the NBA.

Luc Mbah a Moute = Ryan Gomes - Solid players and hard workers who are overrated by their fans.

Walter Sharpe = Amir Johnson - A lot of hype and hope but they never amount to more than bench fodder.