Can Danny?

How else can you explain that Atlanta Hawks going from almost beating the eventual World Champs to the third worst team in the Eastern Conference.

Hollinger's main arguments are that the bench is no good (where have we heard that before) and:

Additionally, it's naïve to think the tumult in the rest of the organization isn't going to have some effect on the floor. Woodson is back even though multiple players -- most notably Smith and Pachulia -- had issues with him a year ago, and he's working under a new general manager who may not have his back. Meanwhile, the ongoing lawsuit between the current ownership and renegade partner Steve Belkin is still dragging on with no end in sight.

One problem, you could have said the same thing last year. Josh Smith and Coach Woodson's problems didn't first pop up last season and the new GM might not have Woodson's back but at least he isn't openly trying to get him fired. I'm not sure how Woodson is going to feel worse under Rick Sund when Billy King made it well known that he wanted Woodson fired before the season and it was the owners that prevented it. 

So how did they move down?

The first and most glaring reason is Larry Brown. John Hollinger apparently still drinks the Larry Brown Kool-Aid. Personally, I'm not wild about Brown dealing with Raymond Felton and DJ Augustin running the show, nor do I think he's going to be particularly impressed with most of his teams defensive acumen. Yes, Matt Carroll can shoot the ball. No, that's not going to matter to Larry Brown if Carroll continues to play the piss poor defense that he's become so well known for. And lets not even worry about Adam Morrison. Even Hollinger admits that a key player is Sean May, a guy who has never been in shape which is part of the reason he's never been healthy. I'm sorry but depending on Sean May and Larry Brown handling two young point guards sounds like a bit of a disaster to me.

The next confusing selection is the Bulls, whom Hollinger has ranked as tied for 9th. Hollinger admits that Derrick Rose won't be much of an impact and that there are too many wild cards for the team. For some reason, that doesn't matter and the Bulls will somehow improve and be a better team than the Hawks. And when I say "for some reason", I think everyone should realize what that reason is. Stats. 

The Bulls and Hawks are perfect examples of the problem with Hollinger's stat-based predictions. The Bulls are a "better" team because top-to-bottom, they have more talent. The problem is that the top of Atlanta's roster is better and the talent actually fits together. You just can't get numbers to understand that (and so Hollinger always seems to overlook it). Hollinger's stats helped propel the Bulls to the #1 preseason spot last year (Celtics were 3rd, Pistons 5th) and we all saw how that worked out. 

A third odd selection is Washington collapsing to 11th in the league. Yes, they don't have Gilbert Arenas but they didn't have him last year and they won 43 games. Hollinger also goes on to say some odd things such as claiming that Nick Young isn't a three point ace. The kid shot 40% from behind the arc last year! I think the Warriors will get worse but I still think they'll be in the playoff picture (and at least in the picture longer than the Bobcats or Bulls)

But who knows? Maybe Josh Smith will finally blow up and go Sprewell on Mike Woodson. Maybe the Bulls will remember how to play basketball and how to win despite little outside shooting or post scoring. Maybe Larry Brown will turn the Bobcats into a legit team. You never can tell in the NBA but judging from Hollinger's own write-ups, I can't say that his analysis exactly supports his positions.