Draft 2008: The Southwest Divison
I don't know what is worse: the Mavs losing their pick in the lousy Jason Kidd deal or the fact that they now might give Desagana Diop the full MLE in order to pry him away from the Nets.
Dallas Mavericks
The Good: Shan Foster becomes a solid role player, feeding off of Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki. The Kidd/Dirk combo comes together and the Mavs make a little run in the playoffs.
The Bad: Mavericks fans watch and wonder what might have been if they had kept Devin Harris and drafted one of the avaiable talents (Donte Greene, Darrell Arthur, etc.) at 21. The Mavs are first round fodder yet again and Jason Kidd starts muttering something about wanting to go to a contender.
My Guess: Kidd settles into Dallas and the team improves but it still isn't enough to make fans forget Devin Harris. At least four players taken after 21 will make Mavs fans cringe, knowing that they could have had them. Shan Foster does well in the D-league but doesn't improve any and is out of the league soon.
Houston Rockets
The Good: Donte Greene helps the Rockets now by being a dead-eye shooter who makes a living off of Ming and McGrady's kickouts. Joey Dorsey learns from Dikembe Mutombo and becomes a defensive monster who complements Carl Landry and Luis Scola. Maarty Leunen helps out a D-league team.
The Bad: Donte Greene's lack of defense outweighs his offense and he doesn't work on his game, becoming just a jump shooter. He pans out as a poor man's Tim Thomas or a sane but equally ineffective Eddie Griffin. Nicholas Batum and Darrell Arthur (noth of whom Houston had at one point during the draft) develop into better players. Dorsey never amounts to anything. Leunen can't even help a D-league team.
My Guess: Greene becomes a solid player but does indeed focus too much on his jumpshot. While he could fall into the trap of being a Dennis Scott-type player, I think Rick Adelman helps him develop into a poor man's Clifford Robinson who teams with Shane Battier to be a solid combo at the 3/4. Dorsey finds his niche as a role player who can step in when Yao goes down in the future but he's not a reliable NBA starter. Maarty Leunen plays overseas.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Good: OJ Mayo proves that all of the hype was right and is the best player in the draft. Darrell Arthur proves that all of his critics are wrong and plays like a lotto-talent and people laugh about how they got Arthur and Javarris Crittenton (and backup big man Marc Gasol) for soft Pau Gasol. The Grizz trade Mike Conley and Darko for a big man and the Crittenton, Mayo, Gay, Arthur foursome begins to come together as a team to watch in the future. Jaric blossoms as a sixth man and Antone Walker gives the team veterean leadership.
The Bad: Conley and Mayo don't work well together and neither player is able to blossom because of it. Rudy Gay spends the year moping since the two guards are monopolizing the ball and Darrell Arthur never amounts to anything but a Kwame Brown-ilke tease. Jaric is fine with sitting around and making money he can spend on his new bride while Antoine pouts all season.
My Guess: Conley has to go. I don't see him meshing with Mayo and the Crittenton/Mayo combo makes more sense anyway. Jaric is a solid backup so Conley and Antoine's expiring deal should be enough to get a solid big man. If they can dump Darko in the deal, all the better. The focus should be on Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo as the core. I'm not sold on Arthur developing into anything better than Drew Gooden or worse than Hakim Warrick but he should be a solid sixth man. As it is, the Conley/Mayo backcourt will be an issue and nobody will benefit from it. The Grizzlies have pieces now but they are Clipper-esque in the way that their talent isn't going to translate into wins.
New Orleans Hornets
The Good: The Hornets owners use the money they made off of selling the #27 pick to sign a veteran shooting guard.
The Bad: The Hornets owners pocket the money and the Hornets have nobody to fill the void at the 2 guard spot (and if Peja goes down, the hole becomes even bigger).
My Guess: The Hornets have been throwing around money and still have Chris Paul to re-up so I can't imagine that the owners are interested in opening up the wally for a high profile 2-guard this offseason. On the bright side, there are a lot of solid, cheaper 2-guards available this offseason so perhaps the Hornets can add a cheap talent to hold down the 2-guard spot with Mo Peterson.
San Antonio Spurs
The Good: George Hill becomes a Bobby Jackson like backup for the Spurs and helps spell Tony Parker. Malik Hairston can deliver spot minutes at the SF. James Gist wows the crowd with pre-game dunks before slipping into his suit and sitting behind the bench.
The Bad: The draft night question of "Who is George Hill?" isn't answered and Jacque Vaughn still manages to hold onto a key spot in an NBA rotation. Malik Hairston and James Gist ride the pine in the D-league.
My Guess: Hill seems to have some potential but both guys seem like career end of the bench players. I'd be surprised if in the near future, people won't look back at this draft and see Darrell Arthur and Donte Greene at 28 and 29 and then wonder who the hell George Hill is and why did he go before those two.