Can Danny?

The Heat tanked at the end of the year and now find themselves one slot away from the player they covet, Derrick Rose.

1. Sort Out The Roster 
Like the Bulls, the Heat have one bonafide keeper. Fortunately for the Heat, their keeper is Dwyane Wade who is better than Luol Deng and is under contract. The only other real talent on the Heat's roster is Shawn Marion but you'd think that he'd have to be on the trading block since he's their only tradeable commodity and is an expiring deal to boot.

After that, what can you say? Jason Williams's contract is up and he's probably gone. Ditto for Ricky Davis. Udonis Haslem might have some trade value but I doubt it. Besides, he's an expiring deal next year and will be more valuable. I've always been a fan of Marcus Banks but even I wouldn't give up anything if it meant having to take on his 3 year, 16 million dollar contract. And let's not even bring up Mark Blount.

That leaves you with Daequan Cook and the restricted free agent Dorrell Wright. Wright isn't bad but he's an 9th man at best. Earl Barron used to seem like a player with potential but he stunk up the joint when he got playing time this past season so I don't really see him as anything but someone to anchor the end of the bench, if the Heat even bother to re-sign him.

2. The Draft
Word is that Pat Riley and the Heat love Derrick Rose but I'm not sold on a backcourt of Rose and Wade since neither of them is much of a shooter. There's also word that the Heat are looking at OJ Mayo. He's a better fit than Rose but it still doesn't make sense because I just don't see how you could pass up Michael Beasley. Beasley's outside shot will help open up the lane for Wade and those two should become a killer pick-and-roll combo.

There's always the option of trading down, but if the target is Mayo, how far down can you go? I wouldn't bet on him getting past Minnesota and what can the Wolves offer that makes up the difference between Mayo and Beasley? Corey Brewer? No. I'm not a fan of Randy Foye but even if I was it wouldn't matter since it makes no sense to grab him when you're going to draft Mayo to play alongside Wade. In the end, I don't think there's a deal that makes sense outside of the Heat dealing the #2 for a star ala Carlos Boozer or Elton Brand.

Miami gave up their second rounder years ago in the Antoine Walker deal. 

3. Trade Market
The Heat would have to listen to offers of Brand or Boozer for the #2 but the deals would be hard to make since the team getting Beasley would also have to take on Mark Blount and possibly Udonis Haslem. A Utah deal would probably look like Boozer and Harpring for Blount, Haslem, Alexander Johnson, and the #2. The Jazz would cut a year off of Harpring's deal although I can't imagine Blount's attitude lasting long with Jerry Sloan. Still, if the Heat can add an All-Star for the #2, it's something they have to look into.

Similarly, the Heat also might need to look into dealing Marion for a couple of players. That being said, if the offer is Kirk Hinrich and Andres Nocioni, Miami would probably be better off holding onto Marion and trying to make a splash in the upcoming free agent market. THAT being said, they have to be careful because they don't want to bank on the free agent market, come up empty, and then face the possibility of Dwyane Wade opting out and leaving in 2010.

One interesting move could be Marion reteaming with D'Antoni in New York for Quentin Richardson, Malik Rose's expiring deal, and the #6 pick. The Heat would be sitting pretty with Jerryd Bayless, Dwyane Wade, and Michael Beasley with more money off the cap next season and Q's contract would be an expiring deal in 2009 as well.

Besides Marion and the #2, I really don't see much happening unless the Heat are willing to bet future picks on their progress. That's a bet I wouldn't make, especially since Wade has missed 31 games in each of the past two seasons. 

Be it dealing the #2 for a veteran or dealing Marion for a couple of players or a high pick, Pat Riley should be able to get his team headed in the right direction this off-season. Personally, I would deal Marion because even if you keep him, you still have to deal with re-signing him. Marion is going to be a free agent and I'm sure he's likely looking for big money which I wouldn't be willing to give him since he'll be 32 when the new contract kicks in.

UPDATE: Some rumors are swirling about Dwyane Wade being moved for the #1 pick. The possibility of walking out of the draft with Derrick Rose (#1), OJ Mayo (#6), and Michael Beasley (#2) might be too much for Pat Riley to ignore.  You hate to give up a talent like Dwyane Wade but after missing so many games the last two years, the Heat might be afraid that he won't ever be 100% healthy again.

4. Free Agency
What the Heat do in the draft alters what they do in free agency. If they deal for a veteran, they should probably look to use their MLE to bring in a talent, be it Carl Landry, Mickeal Pietrus, Jose Calderon, etc. If they go young, they should probably send out some flyers on younger guys like Chris Duhon, Delonte West, or Patrick O'Bryant while maintaining their cap space.

5. Summary
The Heat are at a crossroads this offseason and they'll likely have to choose which path they are going to take by draft day. If they are going with veterans, they'll need to deal the pick. If they want to go young, their only shot is to deal Shawn Marion. Sticking with their current team is risky because it means either re-signing Marion to a likely questionable contract or risking losing him for nothing. Then again, if things go perfectly, they could add Boozer, sign some talent with the MLE and then bring in some ring chasing veterans to fill out the roster, and then possibly deal Marion at the trade deadline (preferably for younger guys or someone who is signed to a more reasonable contract than Marion may be looking for).

Possible Final Roster
Starters: Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, Quentin Richardson, Michael Beasley, Mark Blount
Bench: Daequan Cook, Chris Duhon, Udonis Haslem, Alexander Johnson, Malik Rose, Dorrell Wright, Stephen Lasme, Chris Quinn

or

Starters: Delonte West, Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion, Carlos Boozer, Udonis Haslem
Bench: Daequan Cook, Matt Harpring, Mickeal Pietrus, Alexander Johnson, Damon Stoudamire, Penny Hardaway, Raef LaFrentz, Jamaal Magloire