Can Danny?

The Blazers just may have made them the best team in this division, if not the Western Conference, in this draft. The Timberwolves, on the other hand, made themselves a fun team to watch... for opposing fans. They'll probably give up well over 100 points a game this year. The Sonics took another step closer to making Kevin Durant the next great scorer who never wins anything. 

Denver Nuggets
The Good: Sonny Weems makes the roster.
The Bad: Nuggets fans wonder why the front office sold the pick for cash but then refused to spend the cash on JR Smith. It's more of the same for the Nuggets and Iverson decides to sign elsewhere after the season.
My Guess: Weems makes the roster but it's because J.R. Smith gets a full MLE deal from another team and leaves via free agency. The draft has little impact and the Trade Iverson discussions heat up at the trade deadline.

Minnesota Timberwolves
The Good: Kevin Love's all-around skills and tenacity makes him a valuable big man. He can step out and hit the three on offense and is tough enough to handle himself on defense. Nikola Pekovic comes over in a couple of year and proves to be a great big man off of the bench. The group of Love, Jefferson, Randy Foye, and Mike Miller becomes one of the best offenses in the league.
The Bad: OJ Mayo becomes a Deron Williams. Kevin Love becomes Nick Collison. The Wolves score 100 points a game and give up 125 with Corey Brewer being the only person on the team who can play defense.
My Guess: OJ Mayo was a great fit for this team and the Wolves made a huge mistake by giving him up. Kevin Love is a solid player but I don't like him as a complement to Al Jefferson and don't think he'll be anything more than a third star, at the very best. You can't give up a guy who is potentially the best player in the draft for a role player like Love. Mike Miller is a nice player but he's not getting any younger and the Wolves are still a couple years away from being much of anything. Like last year, the Wolves will be good enough to pull of some upsets during the regular season but I don't think they are anywhere close to really competing in the NBA. Pekovic sounds like a better complement to Al Jefferson than Love but he might not come to the US. Cap space is nice and all but I don't see people lining up to play in Minnesota and none of the young talent outside of Jefferson is good enough to bring back a star player.

Portland Trailblazers
The Good: Jerryd Bayless becomes a star at the point and the Blazers bumrush the NBA and make the playoffs. Nicholas Batum lives up to his hype and becomes the starting SF in a couple years.
The Bad: Bayless is an inconsistent scoring guard ala Jamal Crawford and struggles to beat out Sergio Rodriguez for playing time at the point. Petteri Kopponen then comes over from Finland and takes the starting spot, relegating Bayless to backup minutes. Batum doesn't beat out Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster, or Travis Outlaw for minutes and heads back to France after a year. Fans wonder why they gave up Donte Greene (and then Darrell Arthur) for him.
My Guess: I loved the Blazers trade to get Bayless, who I had as the #4 talent in the draft. He is an almost perfect complement to Brandon Roy and should give the Blazers a huge scoring threat and make it impossible for anyone to double team Oden or Aldridge. Donte Greene and Darrell Arthur seemed like better assets than Nicholas Batum but the Blazers could be the best place for the young Frenchman. He won't have much asked of him and can grow into his role. He also looks to be a better perimeter defender than either Arthur or Greene which fills a need.

Seattle Supersonics
The Good: Russell Westbrook becomes a lockdown defender and learns to run the offense, making him a perfect complement to Kevin Durant. Serge Ibaka comes over in a couple years as an athletic defensive minded big man off of the bench. Devon Hardin proves to be a legit starting center. DJ White becomes a solid backup big man.
The Bad: Westbrook never improves offensively and has neither the shot nor ball-handling to survive as a starting guard. Ibaka, White, and Hardin can't put it all together and are little more than 18 fouls.
My Guess: I don't like getting someone who's just learning to play point to go alongside Kevin Durant who has, in my opinion, questionable playmaking skills. Westbrook should pan out to be a defensive stopper but it's still probably in the Sonics best interest to move Durant to the 3 and grab a playmaking 2 guard. Westbrook has potential but is a little too reminiscent of the Keyon Dooling/Antonio Daniels types that became career backups. Devon Hardin was a steal where they got him and because of his defense, he could turn out to be the best center on the team (which is sad since the Sonics have spent about 8 first round picks this last decade on big men). I don't think DJ White will amount to much of an NBA player. He'll probably be out of the league before Ibaka ever arrives (if he ever does).

Utah Jazz
The Good: Kosta Koufos replaces Mehmet Okur (and help make him trade bait). In a couple years, Ante Tomic and Tadija Dragicevic come over to become key role players.
The Bad: Koufos is soft ends up as a permanent resident of Jerry Sloan's doghouse. The Euros don't pan out.
My Guess: Whenever a foreigner is drafted and "just isn't for the NBA", it usually means that they'll never be ready. Most guys who stay over and pan out do so because of contract issues, not talent or tenacity problems which is exactly Tomic's problem. As for the other Euro, if even Chad Ford hasn't heard of a foreign player, I'm not putting much stock in him. As for Koufos, he seems like a bust but now that he's in Utah I'm inking it in that he never amount to anything. A "disinterested" defender who doesn't rebound? Jerry Sloan is going to break this kid worse than MJ did Kwame Brown. The players were probably worth the risks where they were picked but I don't see Utah adding a single player out of this draft.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Heat took a huge step forward in the draft, getting a star who fits perfectly alongside Shawn Marion and possibly getting the perfect guard complement to Dwyane Wade in Mario Chalmers. The Bobcats set themselves up to improve if they can move Raymond Felton for a talent but I'm guess that they get a lousy return for him (especially since everyone knows they pretty much have to trade him now) and fail to make the playoffs yet again. The Magic might have helped themselves a bit while the Hawks (with no picks) and the Wizards (with a wasted one) are holding steady where they were at the end of the season.  

Washington Wizards
The Good: In a few years, Javale McGee blossoms into a backup center.
The Bad: Javale McGeee doesn't even make it through his rookie contract.
My Guess: Javale McGee's claim to fame this draft process was that he was the supposed talented big man that got so dominated by other prospects in workouts that he helped them improve their stock. Alexis Ajinca should give a bit of his guaranteed contract to McGee. Yes, McGee is tall and athletic and has a nice shot but he also doesn't know how to play the game of basketball (particularly on the defensive end). Jason Thompson might be the worst pick but McGee is a frontrunner for the worst player taken in first rounders. While I usually think kids should take advantage of their draft stock and come out early, McGee is the kind of kid who simply needs to play the game more and that's not going to happen for him in the NBA (and I just don't believe the D-league actually helps people improve).

On a related note, here are the players that the Washington Wizards have drafted this decade: Mike Smith, Kwame Brown, Jared Jeffiries, Juan Dixon, Rod Grizzard, Etan Thomas, Brendan Haywood, Juan Carlos Navarro, Steve Blake, Jarvis Hayes, Peter Ramos, Andray Blatche, Oleksiy Pecheroc, Vlad Veremeenko, Nick Young, Dominic McGuire. I don't see McGee working his way to the top of this list which is pretty sad. When arguably the best player you've draft in 8 years is Steve Blake, something is working.

Orlando Magic
The Good: Courtney Lee becomes the outside shooter they've been looking for at the two and also helps out as a solid perimeter defender.
The Bad: Courtney Lee is the next JJ Redick.
My Guess: The key to this pick is whether or not Lee can become an NBA-level defender. He should be a solid player and a good fit at the 2-guard but I still can't help but think that Darrell Arthur would have been the better pick. I like Lee but I'm not sold on a Jameer Nelson/Lee backcourt being capable of getting a team to the Conference Finals.

Atlanta Hawks
The Good: The Joe Johnson trade is finally complete and the final tally for what the Suns gave up was: Boris Diaw, Rajon Rondo, and Robin Lopez. Even though Billy Knight should have called the Suns' bluff (they wouldn't have matched the max salary the Hawks offered), the deal still ended up being a great one for the Hawks.
The Bad: Rick Sund is probably cursing the fact that he wasn't able to land one of the many project centers in this draft.
My Guess: Nobody gives a rat's ass since the focus in on re-signing the Joshes.

Charlotte Bobcats
The Good: DJ Augustin turns out to be a rich man's version of TJ Ford while Kyle Weaver is a defensive minded backup combo guard. The Bobcats land a solid young big man for Raymond Felton and Larry Brown has the team cruising towards their first ever playoff chase while Alexis Ajinca blossoms into a star in France and readies himself at life in the NBA in 2010.
The Bad:  DJ Augustin clashes with Larry Brown who plays the offensively challenged Weaver (or some newly signed vet PG) over him. The Bobcats continue to lose games and attendance drops. The likelihood of them moving becomes better than the odds of them making the playoffs. Fans in Seattle start watching the Bobcats in hopes that they'll soon be the new Seattle Supersonics.
My Guess: DJ Augustin pans out as a solid but not great point guard. Kyle Weaver is a 12th man which makes him better than workout wonder Alexis Ajinca who is another DeSagana Diop/Saer Sene. Michael Jordan deals Raymond Felton for a solid but aging power forward who helps the Bobcats improve just enough to get a worse lottery pick than this year. Attendance doesn't improve and the rumblings of moving trucks begins.

Miami Heat
The Good: Chalmers and Beasley not only are the perfect complements to Wade and Marion but they also help out immediately and the Heat make a legit run at the title.
The Bad: Chalmers is a bust and Beasley is a Glenn Robinson-type who is good at getting his points but lousy at helping his team win. Wade goes down with yet another injury and Marion decides to leave after the season.
My Guess: The injury issue is a legit concern with Wade but should he stay healthy, I think the Miami Heat are going to make some serious noise in the NBA next season. Chalmers gives the Heat exactly what they need out of a point guard alongside Dwyane Wade and Beasley is going to be Rookie of the Year and a future stud. He and Marion will be great complements if Marion's ego can accept being the defensive specialist and giving the rook the spotlight on the offensive end. That could be an issue and might lead to the Heat looking to move Marion at the trade deadline.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The draft changed little in the Pacific division. The Warriors are still young and talented but not good enough to be more than an upstart, the Clippers are young, talented, but mismatched that they aren't even upstarts, the Lakers are the elite, the Suns are a piece or two away, and the Kings should spend most of their money on scouting for the 2009 draft.
 
Golden State Warriors
The Good: Anthony Randolph blossoms into one of the top players in the draft and he, Andris Biedrins, and Brandan Wright become the best young frontcourts in the NBA. Richard Hendrix adds some hustle and muscle off the bench.
The Bad:  Randolph sits next to Brandan Wright and never gets any playing time. He either doesn't develop into a player or is eventually traded and blossoms for someone else. Hendrix's knee problem forces him into early retirement.
My Guess: Randolph shows signs of greatness in practice but gets no run this season as he is a terrible fit for Nelson's style of play. After another year of missing the playoffs, Nelson is fired and a new coach takes over and uses the impressive core of Monta Ellis, Randolph, Wright, and Biedrins the right way and things turn around for the Warriors. Randolph never shakes the 'tweener problem but becomes a solid Travis Outlaw-type player. Richard Hendrix never becomes a star but manages to have a solid NBA career.

Los Angeles Clippers
The Good: Eric Gordon becomes an All-Star shooting guard who teams up with Al Thornton to becomes one of the more dynamic 2/3 combos in the L. With Elton Brand and Chris Kaman anchoring the frontcourt, the Clippers make the playoffs again and put a scare into the #1 or #2 seed. DeAndre Jordan improves and seems to be the heir apparent to Brand's spot at the 4.
The Bad: DeAndre Jordan doesn't amount to anything and Eric Gordon doesn't fit in, giving the Clippers their usual talented squad that can't seem to put it together and actually win. The Clippers deal Brand for a veteran PG and it backfires with Gordon, Maggette, and Thornton being an all-scoring but little else trio. Within five years, the Clippers roster looks completely different (yet is equally unsuccessful).
My Guess: I like Eric Gordon as a scoring guard but I don't think he'll be as good as Jerryd Bayless. He'll help the Clippers but he doesn't seem like the kind of guy that will make his teammates better. He and Thornton don't seem to be a good combo at the 2 and 3 and the Clippers should probably see if they can go after Raymond Felton or another available PG. The Clippers will be improved this season but they won't make the playoffs and seem destined to be just good enough to battle for the playoffs (and sometimes make it) but never get past the first round.

Los Angeles Lakers
The Good: Joey Crawford is moved by the fact that the Lakers draft a kid named Joe Crawford and decides to not call any fouls for the Spurs when the Lakers and Spurs meet next year.
The Bad: Pau Gasol continues to be soft and Lakers fans start wondering if they wouldn't have been better with one of the talented players available at this pick, Javarris Crittenton, and Marc Gasol.
My Guess: The Gasol trade won't look as lopsided next season but the Lakers won't care as they should be primed to make anoter run at the trophy. Joe Crawford has no impact on anything except a minor European league.

Phoenix Suns
The Good: Robin Lopez adds some needed defensive intensity to the frontcourt and in a few years Goran Dragic comes over and becomes a possible point guard for the future.
The Bad: Robin Lopez decides to live off of girlfriend Michelle Wie's money and doesn't care about basketball. Dragic never amounts to anything.
My Guess: Dragic sounds like an intriguing prospect but when you're a point guard and you need to work on shooting and turnover then I'm probably not going to hold out hope that he'll be the answer in the future. Robin Lopez could actually improve to be a better player than his brother but I'm not sure he made more sense than other players on the board. He was a safe pick as he'll probably be, at the very least, a Jeff Foster type who'll stick around the league for years but Phoenix might have been better off taking a flyer on a player with a higher ceiling.

Sacramento Kings
The Good: Jason Thompson becomes a great complement to Kevin Martin and Spencer Hawes and the Kings have three key pieces for their future. Sean Singletary proves to be a solid backup PG and Patrick Ewing Jr. wins the dunk contest.
The Bad: Ron Artest watches the draft, sees the pick, and opts out of his contract. Thompson is another perimeter big man who had no business going in the lottery, let alone the first round. Singletary and Ewing Jr. both don't make it out of the pre-season and end up overseas or in the D-league.
My Guess: As soon as I saw the Kings take Thompson, I said, "This is going to drive Artest to leave." Lo and behold, Artest announced he's changed "100 degrees" and opted out. (EDIT: Apparently Artest went the other 260 degrees as he's now decided not to opt out) Thompson is soft and can't defend which makes him a terrible complement to Hawes. I'd honestly be surprised if he could beat out Shelden Williams or Kenny Thomas for playing time. Singletary might be a nice backup but he's probably not someone you want actually getting many minutes. With two second rounders, the Kings should have taken a flyer on Bill Walker. Right now, the Kings are looking like the frontrunners for the #1 pick in the 2009 Draft.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

As I was watching this draft, I thought it was one of the dumber drafts I'd ever seen. One strange pick after another, talented players falling, some odd trades, it was just an strange strange evening.

After a couple of days though, I just don't know what to make of it. With so many freshman in the draft and the upperclassmen also being question marks, it was one of the hardest drafts to peg. Who knows how it will pan out? This being so, I'm going to go through some of the best and worst case scenarios for the teams and then put out my guess of how draft night will pan out for the teams. So here's the Best/Worst/My Best Guess for the Central Division.

Milwaukee Bucks
The Good: Richard Jefferson gives the team the punch they lacked and Joe Alexander fits in as a small, athletic power forward for an up-tempo offense. Luc Mbah a Moute gives them a defensive specialist off of the bench.
The Bad: The Bucks soon realize that they have a team full of small forwards, Andrew Bogut, and below-average point guards. Ramon Sessions and Mo Williams can't handle running the show and Jefferson and Redd prove themselves to be overrated and overpaid. Luc is out of the league in a couple of years.
My Guess: Jefferson should help change the culture of the team, especially on the defensive end but he and Redd are both overpaid. While I like Ramon Sessions, I'm not sure if he is a starting point guard (which Mo Williams has spent the last couple years showing he isn't). The Bucks had a lot of options at their pick and Joe Alexander was one of the worst. DJ Augustin would have helped at the point. They could have taken Jerryd Bayless and moved him for Jarrett Jack and the #13 (where they could have grabbed a big man). Or they could have just held onto Bayless and looked to move Redd. New Bucks GM John Hammond didn't distinguish himself on draft night and now needs to work some magic to get this roster into shape. Right now, they'd have to overachieve to even make the playoffs.

Indiana Pacers
The Good: TJ Ford shows that he is one of the top young PG's in the game while Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert provide immediate help for the Pacers who make the playoffs. In a year, they use their expiring contracts and Mike Dunleavy Jr. to land a good big man in a trade (or sign-and-trade) and end up with a lineup like Ford, Rush, Danny Granger, Shawn Marion, and Roy Hibbert. Jarrett Jack becomes one of the better sixth men in the league and Josh McRoberts listens to Larry Bird and begins to live up to his potential.
The Bad: Jerryd Bayless becomes an All-Star and nobody ever forgets this draft as the day that Larry Bird dealt Bayless for an injury-prone underachiever. Hibbert is nothing more than a spot starter/bench big and can't hold a candle to the players who went after him. Jermaine O'Neal turns back the clock while the Pacers deal with injury issues with Ford, Rush, Tinsley, and Dunleavy Jr.
My Guess: I think Rush and Hibbert will be solid players with long NBA careers but neither of them will amount to Jerryd Bayless. Jermaine O'Neal will have a great season as Chris Bosh's #2. TJ Ford will have a comeback player of the year type season but it won't be enough to lead the Pacers to the playoffs.  Wanting to win now, the Pacers use their young talent and draft pick next season to land a veteran player who might help them get to the second round, at best. The Pacers fans settle for more years of mediocrity.

Detroit Pistons
The Good: Walter Sharpe proves to be a bigger steal than Jason Maxiell and the Pistons don't miss Rasheed Wallace who they trade for more young talent. Trent Plaisted becomes a solid backup big man and the Pistons take a little step back but are poised to make another run at the title in the near future.
The Bad: None of the draft picks pan out, DJ White proves to be a solid NBA player, and this goes down as Joe's worst non-Darko moment as a GM.
My Guess: Honestly, I have no idea since I didn't know who Walter Sharpe was. Right now my guess is that Sharpe becomes another Amir Johnson who gets a lot of hype for improving but never really seems to amount to much on the floor.

Cleveland Cavaliers
The Good: J.J. Hickson shows great promise and improves faster than expected while Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun become important role players for the Cavs, convincing LeBron James that he shouldn't leave when his contract is due.
The Bad: J.J. Hickson, Darnell Jackson, and Sasha Kaun are all busts. LeBron starts looking at real estate in New York.
My Guess: Hickson sounds like a role player at best and even if he does pan out, it won't be in the next two years. Jackson and Kaun aren't going to bring anything special to the table and none of the trio are going to help the Cavs get anyone in a trade. Not only did the Cavs not get the best possible talent at #17 but the pick itself probably had more value in a trade than Hickson does now. Donte Greene, Darrell Arthur, and even Nicholas Batum made more sense both in talent and trade potential. The Cavs are now in a worse than they were before Draft Day 2008 and if things don't change this offseason, LeBron will be getting antsy. Danny Ferry is going to have to work some magic this off-season if he wants to save his job and prevent LeBron from leaving in the near future.

Chicago Bulls
The Good: The Bulls return to their winning ways as Derrick Rose helps bring them back to the playoffs. Ty Thomas blossoms playing alongside the true PG and Kirk Hinrich settle into the 2-guard spot and bounces back from a bad year. Rose helps Luol Deng blossom into the max player Deng's agent thinks he is.
The Bad: Michael Beasley and OJ Mayo shine, Ben Gordon signs elsewhere and lives up to being the #3 pick in the draft, and Rose struggles to pick up the NBA game. New coach Vinny Del Negro can't unite the team and the Bulls underperform with Hinrich's decline continuing and Ty Thomas becoming lazier and more of a bust. The Knicks are the worst team in the league and the second round pick that the Bulls owned and traded for Omer Asik turns out to be a good player.
My Guess: Rose fits in well but isn't the be-all, end-all that Bulls fans hoped. Still, with his play helping Hinrich, Deng, and Thomas blossom, the Bulls make the playoffs. Ben Gordon, however, leaves and signs with a team that utilizes him correctly while Michael Beasley garners Rookie of the Year honors so the critics begin to wonder if Gordon and Beasley should have been the way the Bulls went this offseason.

Posted by SoulHonky at 11:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

- A solid deal for the Nuggets depending on the protection on the pick. The Bobcats aren't going to be great any time soon so it could pan out to be a very nice deal. The Bobcats will now be sitting pretty to get any player who drops (perhaps Donte Green) or they've added another asset to move up in the draft.

- The Hornets' fans should be a bit disappointed about selling the pick. There should be someone worthwhile on the board at 27 and New Orleans just missed a chance to upgrade their roster.

- The JO/Ford deal is win-win. The Raptors get a big man to team with Chris Bosh but they are still lacking in the swingman position. I like the Calderon/Bosh/JO trio but I just don't see it being good enough to get out of the second round of the playoffs, at best.  The Pacers add a young albeit injury prone PG and also net another draft pick which could be huge. The Pacers could come away from this draft with two VERY good prospects. Of course, I'm not sure if Jim O'Brien is happy about getting younger but this is the right move for the team in the long run. Of course, GM Larry Bird will probably blow the picks on Kosta Koufos and Ryan Anderson but still...

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This draft is a complete crap shoot. WIth only five upperclassmen in the consensus first round and only one in the consensus top 10 (and that one being the uber-raw Joe Alexander at that) it's almost impossible to peg who should go where. After the top three (or four if you are high on Jerryd Bayless) there's little to no separation between #4 and #24. I think Kevin Love at #5 makes as much sense as Donte Green. So whom should take who? 

1. Miami Heat: Michael Beasley
The Heat pull the trigger on the Wade for #1, Ty Thomas, and Larry Hughes trade.  Afraid that Dwyane is on the Penny Express, the Heat pull the trigger to get younger and snag the point guard that could get Pat Riley to unseat his current head coach in a year or two. They also add a young player in Thomas who could pan out to be a Josh Smith type combo-forward. The Bulls weather Wade's injury history to add the superstar they've been waiting for. The lineup of Hinrich, Wade, Deng, Nocioni, and Noah could stir up some trouble in the East but, then again, if Wade goes down with another injury, John Paxson's days as a GM will be numbered.

2.  Miami Heat: Derrick Rose
If the Heat don't make this trade, they should seriously consider OJ Mayo over Derrick Rose. I probably wouldn't be able to pull the trigger on OJ over Rose but I think Mayo has as good of a chance to be a star player and he is also a better fit alongside Wade. However if the trade goes down, I'd love to see Rose running the point with Beasley and Marion on the wings (if they decide to keep Marion).

3. Minnesota Timberwolves: OJ Mayo
Mayo is the no-brainer pick here (and I wouldn't be stunned if Pat Riley decided to try to get a new version of Isiah/Dumars and draft Mayo and Rose). If the Wolves take any of the available big men and this spot, the entire front office should be banned from working in the NBA ever again. At the very least, they have to take Mayo here and trade down to one of the many teams that are trying to get him.

4. Seattle Supersonics: Jerryd Bayless
The key to this pick is moving Bayless to the 2 and Durant to the 3. If they try to use Bayless and Durant in the backcourt, it won't work. Neither guy has the playmaking skills to effectively run the offense and I just don't think you want to run the offense through Jeff Green at the 3.

5. Memphis Grizzles: Eric Gordon
Conley and Gordon will make for a small backcourt but Gordon's strength should make up for some of their shortcomings. The big men available simply aren't that enticing especially when the Grizlles have a late pick with which they can grab a PF.

6. New York Knicks: Russell Westbrook
If someone is dumb enough to take Zach Randolph and the #6 the Knicks should jump at the chance. I almost don't even care who they are getting in return (as long as their contract is no longer than two years). I'm sure some GM will be dumb enough to make that deal but for my mock draft, the Knicks are stuck with the pick and add a nice complement to Jamal Crawford (or Nate Robinson). Westbrook is a defensive-minded guard who can run the show while Crawford and Nasty Nate focus on scoring.

7. Memphis Grizzles: Anthony Randolph
The Grizz pick up a power forward prospect who should fit into their up-tempo scheme in a deal with Los Angeles. They send Kyle Lowry and Mike Miller to Memphis for Cuttino Mobley, #7, #35 and possibly the future Minnesota Timberwolves pick that is owed to them. It's top 10 protected through 2011 but given the Wolves track record, there's a good chance that the Grizz could net another high draft pick from this. The Clippers add a starting PG and shooting guard for their trouble.

8. Milwaukee Bucks: Joe Alexander
I don't really buy the Joe Alexander hype but he seems like a Scott Skiles type of guy and the kind of draft pick that might not be a star but should be a helpful player for a long time. Those things, plus the fact that there is still that hope that his potential hasn't been touched, is why the Bucks add him to the lineup.

9. Charlotte Bobcats:  Kevin Love
Love is another player I am skeptical about but with Gerald Wallace on one side and Emeka Okafor on the other, his defensive issues should be held in check on the Bobcats. Also, he's an old school player who should fit in well with Larry Brown (although Love does have himself quite the ego).  If the 'Cats can deal the pick for a big man, I think they do that but I'm just not sure what they can really work out before the draft.

10. New Jersey Nets: Brook Lopez
Lopez has his doubters (and I'm one of them) but he's a solid big man and should fit in nicely alongside Sean Williams and Nenad Krstic. That's not a bad big man rotation.

11. Toronto Raptors: Danilo Gallinari
The Raptors acquire another pick and select Andrea Bargnani's compatriot. They give up TJ Ford but also take back Jamaal Tinsley. The Pacers are just happy to rid themselves of Mel Mel the Abuser and his off the court issues. The Pacers might get a future protected first rounder as well.

12. New Jersey Nets: Donte Green
The Nets clear cap space and move up in the draft by swapping Richard Jefferson, Marcus Williams, and #21 for Ron Artest, Kenny Thomas, #12. Artest lets the Nets continute to compete while also giving them a shorter contract in order to open up the books for the great free agent class of 2010. The Kings get a good young SF who is locked into a contract (and thus won't be high-tailing it out of Sactown) as well as a promising young point guard. And to be bonest, in this draft, the difference between 12 and 21 could be minimal. The Nets consider Brandon Rush but decide to use this pick on Donte Green's upside.

13. Phoenix Suns: Brandon Rush
I'm not sure about the exact details of the trade but Leandro Barbosa to Portland for the #13 and a player or two seems like the best bet. Barbosa is almost an ideal PG for the Blazers because they already have Brandon Roy running the show at the 2 so they can use a score-first PG like Barbosa. The Suns get the guard they want in Rush.

14. Milwaukee Bucks: DJ Augustin
The Bucks deal Charlie Villanueva and #37 for the 14th pick where they add a PG in DJ Augustin. The Warriors really had little interest in this pick and Charlie seems like the kind of player who could flourish in Nellie's system.

15. Phoenix Suns: Mareese Speights
With a second pick, the Suns can take a gamble and Speights is worth the risk. He would give the Suns a hell of a twin towers with him and Amare. The problem is whether or not he has the attitude and motor to ever reach his potential.

16. Philadelphia 76ers: Darrell Arthur
The best move might be to package this pick with Andre Miller, who sounds like he's going to be leaving Philly after next season.  However, if the Sixers can't find a good deal, they should probably go for Arthur, who could be a nice complement to Thad Young at the forward spot. All of the big man prospects now are hit-or-miss but I think Arthur has the best shot at being, at the very least, servicable.

17. Toronto Raptors: Chris Douglas-Roberts
CDR and his rather unorthodox style is usually the type of player I would shy away from but the Raptors don't need a big man and Roberts looks to be the best fit and the only shooting guard worth taking this high. His defense will be key and, at the very least, you hope that he's a step up from Jamario Moon.

18. Washington Wizards: Roy Hibbert 
Hibbert stays home and the Wiz add a solid big man who should help out immediately. I'm sure during his first tour of the NBA, a lot of GM's will be thanking him for taking his name out of last year's draft and saving them from wasting a top lotto pick on him.

19. Cleveland Cavaliers:  DeAndre Jordan
This late in the draft, there's really not much left for the Cavs to choose from. Mario Chalmers is an option but the Cavs seems happy with Delonte West and Boobie Miles. Hopefully, the prospect of playing alongside LeBron James will wake Jordan up and help him reach his potential.

20. Denver Nuggets: Mario Chalmers
Chalmers can shoot and defend, making him a nice complement to A.I. He'll be great in the Eric Snow role.

21. Sacramento Kings: Robin Lopez
Dropping down in the draft, the Kings still get a nice prospect with upside. If they want offense, they could go after Mareese Speights but Lopez seems like a better fit alongside Spencer Hawes.

22. Orlando Magic: Alexis Ajinca
The Magic might have a huge steal and this point in the draft or they could have a guy that will sit around and laugh with Fran Vazquez about how they'll never come over to the US.

23. Utah Jazz:  Courtney Lee
Nothing great but could prove to be a solid role player for the Jazz. 

24. Seattle Supersonics: Serge Ibaka
The Sonics use their last pick on a foreigner that they'll stash overseas for a couple of years. 

25. Houston Rockets:  Nicolas Batum
It's been one thing after another with this overhyped sensation but the Rockets decide to take a flyer on him.

26. San Antonio Spurs: Kosta Koufos
I know he's the new mover in the draft but there's something I just don't like about the kid.

27. New Orleans Hornets: Bill Walker
I still hate the Peja signing and Walker give the Hornets another option at the SF and someone else who could take advantage of Paul's alleyoops.

28. Memphis Grizzlies: JJ Hickson
The Grizz add another young big man to their stable. 

29. Detroit Pistons: Jamont Gordon
Worst case scenario, he becomes Lindsay Hunter's heir apparent but more likely he becomes a super-sub for the Pisons.

30: Boston Celtics: Keith Brumbaugh
Ante Tomic sounds like a guy that will never pan out, Javale McGee doesn't sound like much of anything, and all of the other big men seem like Leon Powe clones. The C's might as well give the former Mr. Florida a shot. He's had MAJOR character issues which makes this choice highly unlikely but at 30, the Celtics can give the kid a shot.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I understand the use of statistics but I always hate when people act like they are the be all and end all, especially in terms of talent evaluation. John Hollinger's latest pieces on ESPN.com are perfect examples of this. He claims that his system is better but he makes as many mistakes as the NBA talent evaluators and many of his errors are far more egregious. Personally, I'm not sure how you can look at this year's draft, run a metric that lists the following 15 players as the best, and still act like your system is a sound one.

Here's Hollinger's top 15:

1. Michael Beasley
2. Kevin Love
3. Darrell Arthur
4. Mareese Speights
5. DJ Augustin
6. Derrick Rose
7. Joe Alexander
8. Brook Lopez
9. Mario Chalmers
10. Jerryd Bayless
11. Roy Hibbert
12. Kosta Koufos
13. Donte Green
14. Darnell Jackson
15. DeAndre Jordan

I'm sorry but a drunk, blindfolded Kevin McHale could come up with a better list than this.  

Posted by SoulHonky at 10:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This draft is a complete crap shoot. WIth only five upperclassmen in the consensus first round and only one in the consensus top 10 (and that one being the uber-raw Joe Alexander at that) it's almost impossible to peg who should go where. After the top three (or four if you are high on Jerryd Bayless) there's little to no separation between #4 and #24. I think Kevin Love at #5 makes as much sense as Donte Green. So whom should take who? 

1. Miami Heat: Michael Beasley
The Heat pull the trigger on the Wade for #1, Ty Thomas, and Larry Hughes trade.  Afraid that Dwyane is on the Penny Express, the Heat pull the trigger to get younger and snag the point guard that could get Pat Riley to unseat his current head coach in a year or two. They also add a young player in Thomas who could pan out to be a Josh Smith type combo-forward. The Bulls weather Wade's injury history to add the superstar they've been waiting for. The lineup of Hinrich, Wade, Deng, Nocioni, and Noah could stir up some trouble in the East but, then again, if Wade goes down with another injury, John Paxson's days as a GM will be numbered.

2.  Miami Heat: Derrick Rose
If the Heat don't make this trade, they should seriously consider OJ Mayo over Derrick Rose. I probably wouldn't be able to pull the trigger on OJ over Rose but I think Mayo has as good of a chance to be a star player and he is also a better fit alongside Wade. However if the trade goes down, I'd love to see Rose running the point with Beasley and Marion on the wings (if they decide to keep Marion).

3. Minnesota Timberwolves: OJ Mayo
Mayo is the no-brainer pick here (and I wouldn't be stunned if Pat Riley decided to try to get a new version of Isiah/Dumars and draft Mayo and Rose). If the Wolves take any of the available big men and this spot, the entire front office should be banned from working in the NBA ever again. At the very least, they have to take Mayo here and trade down to one of the many teams that are trying to get him.

4. Seattle Supersonics: Jerryd Bayless
The key to this pick is moving Bayless to the 2 and Durant to the 3. If they try to use Bayless and Durant in the backcourt, it won't work. Neither guy has the playmaking skills to effectively run the offense and I just don't think you want to run the offense through Jeff Green at the 3.

5. Memphis Grizzles: Eric Gordon
Conley and Gordon will make for a small backcourt but Gordon's strength should make up for some of their shortcomings. The big men available simply aren't that enticing especially when the Grizlles have a late pick with which they can grab a PF.

6. New York Knicks: Russell Westbrook
If someone is dumb enough to take Zach Randolph and the #6 the Knicks should jump at the chance. I almost don't even care who they are getting in return (as long as their contract is no longer than two years). I'm sure some GM will be dumb enough to make that deal but for my mock draft, the Knicks are stuck with the pick and add a nice complement to Jamal Crawford (or Nate Robinson). Westbrook is a defensive-minded guard who can run the show while Crawford and Nasty Nate focus on scoring.

7. Memphis Grizzles: Anthony Randolph
The Grizz pick up a power forward prospect who should fit into their up-tempo scheme in a deal with Los Angeles. They send Kyle Lowry and Mike Miller to Memphis for Cuttino Mobley, #7, #35 and possibly the future Minnesota Timberwolves pick that is owed to them. It's top 10 protected through 2011 but given the Wolves track record, there's a good chance that the Grizz could net another high draft pick from this. The Clippers add a starting PG and shooting guard for their trouble.

8. Milwaukee Bucks: Joe Alexander
I don't really buy the Joe Alexander hype but he seems like a Scott Skiles type of guy and the kind of draft pick that might not be a star but should be a helpful player for a long time. Those things, plus the fact that there is still that hope that his potential hasn't been touched, is why the Bucks add him to the lineup.

9. Charlotte Bobcats:  Kevin Love
Love is another player I am skeptical about but with Gerald Wallace on one side and Emeka Okafor on the other, his defensive issues should be held in check on the Bobcats. Also, he's an old school player who should fit in well with Larry Brown (although Love does have himself quite the ego).  If the 'Cats can deal the pick for a big man, I think they do that but I'm just not sure what they can really work out before the draft.

10. New Jersey Nets: Brook Lopez
Lopez has his doubters (and I'm one of them) but he's a solid big man and should fit in nicely alongside Sean Williams and Nenad Krstic. That's not a bad big man rotation.

11. Toronto Raptors: Danilo Gallinari
The Raptors acquire another pick and select Andrea Bargnani's compatriot. They give up TJ Ford but also take back Jamaal Tinsley. The Pacers are just happy to rid themselves of Mel Mel the Abuser and his off the court issues. The Pacers might get a future protected first rounder as well.

12. New Jersey Nets: Donte Green
The Nets clear cap space and move up in the draft by swapping Richard Jefferson, Marcus Williams, and #21 for Ron Artest, Kenny Thomas, #12. Artest lets the Nets continute to compete while also giving them a shorter contract in order to open up the books for the great free agent class of 2010. The Kings get a good young SF who is locked into a contract (and thus won't be high-tailing it out of Sactown) as well as a promising young point guard. And to be bonest, in this draft, the difference between 12 and 21 could be minimal. The Nets consider Brandon Rush but decide to use this pick on Donte Green's upside.

13. Phoenix Suns: Brandon Rush
I'm not sure about the exact details of the trade but Leandro Barbosa to Portland for the #13 and a player or two seems like the best bet. Barbosa is almost an ideal PG for the Blazers because they already have Brandon Roy running the show at the 2 so they can use a score-first PG like Barbosa. The Suns get the guard they want in Rush.

14. Milwaukee Bucks: DJ Augustin
The Bucks deal Charlie Villanueva and #37 for the 14th pick where they add a PG in DJ Augustin. The Warriors really had little interest in this pick and Charlie seems like the kind of player who could flourish in Nellie's system.

15. Phoenix Suns: Mareese Speights
With a second pick, the Suns can take a gamble and Speights is worth the risk. He would give the Suns a hell of a twin towers with him and Amare. The problem is whether or not he has the attitude and motor to ever reach his potential.

16. Philadelphia 76ers: Darrell Arthur
The best move might be to package this pick with Andre Miller, who sounds like he's going to be leaving Philly after next season.  However, if the Sixers can't find a good deal, they should probably go for Arthur, who could be a nice complement to Thad Young at the forward spot. All of the big man prospects now are hit-or-miss but I think Arthur has the best shot at being, at the very least, servicable.

17. Toronto Raptors: Chris Douglas-Roberts
CDR and his rather unorthodox style is usually the type of player I would shy away from but the Raptors don't need a big man and Roberts looks to be the best fit and the only shooting guard worth taking this high. His defense will be key and, at the very least, you hope that he's a step up from Jamario Moon.

18. Washington Wizards: Roy Hibbert 
Hibbert stays home and the Wiz add a solid big man who should help out immediately. I'm sure during his first tour of the NBA, a lot of GM's will be thanking him for taking his name out of last year's draft and saving them from wasting a top lotto pick on him.

19. Cleveland Cavaliers:  DeAndre Jordan
This late in the draft, there's really not much left for the Cavs to choose from. Mario Chalmers is an option but the Cavs seems happy with Delonte West and Boobie Miles. Hopefully, the prospect of playing alongside LeBron James will wake Jordan up and help him reach his potential.

20. Denver Nuggets: Mario Chalmers
Chalmers can shoot and defend, making him a nice complement to A.I. He'll be great in the Eric Snow role.

21. Sacramento Kings: Robin Lopez
Dropping down in the draft, the Kings still get a nice prospect with upside. If they want offense, they could go after Mareese Speights but Lopez seems like a better fit alongside Spencer Hawes.

22. Orlando Magic: Alexis Ajinca
The Magic might have a huge steal and this point in the draft or they could have a guy that will sit around and laugh with Fran Vazquez about how they'll never come over to the US.

23. Utah Jazz:  Courtney Lee
Nothing great but could prove to be a solid role player for the Jazz. 

24. Seattle Supersonics: Serge Ibaka
The Sonics use their last pick on a foreigner that they'll stash overseas for a couple of years. 

25. Houston Rockets:  Nicolas Batum
It's been one thing after another with this overhyped sensation but the Rockets decide to take a flyer on him.

26. San Antonio Spurs: Kosta Koufos
I know he's the new mover in the draft but there's something I just don't like about the kid.

27. New Orleans Hornets: Bill Walker
I still hate the Peja signing and Walker give the Hornets another option at the SF and someone else who could take advantage of Paul's alleyoops.

28. Memphis Grizzlies: JJ Hickson
The Grizz add another young big man to their stable. 

29. Detroit Pistons: Jamont Gordon
Worst case scenario, he becomes Lindsay Hunter's heir apparent but more likely he becomes a super-sub for the Pisons.

30: Boston Celtics: Keith Brumbaugh
Ante Tomic sounds like a guy that will never pan out, Javale McGee doesn't sound like much of anything, and all of the other big men seem like Leon Powe clones. The C's might as well give the former Mr. Florida a shot. He's had MAJOR character issues which makes this choice highly unlikely but at 30, the Celtics can give the kid a shot.

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Can Danny Ferry or Kiki Vandeweigh pull an Ainge and turn around their team's fortunes? Can Rick Sund get the Hawks to the next level or will he just spend his years collecting project big men like he did in Seattle? Will Joe Dumars be able to retool? And is Mitch Kupchak really going to stand pat rather than try to move Odom for someone with a heart?

This offseason is going to be a very interesting one (for the Celtics as well who need to re-sign Posey and figure out if they want to keep Eddie House) and someone should come away as a possible new contender to the crown. Who will it be? 

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I'm in Utah for the week and might not be able to blog so hopefully I'll be back posting about eating crow at the end of this week.  GO CELTS!

 FYI: Salt Lake City is a very strange city

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

If any team is going to make a run like the Celtics in the offseason, the Nets are it. If they want to build around Vince Carter (who came alive after the Kidd deal), they have some great trade assets in Devin Harris, Richard Jefferson, the #10 pick along with Marcus & Sean Williams and the right to Nenad Krstic (who is a free agent).

1. Sort Out The Roster 
Of course, the question remains: is a maxed out, 31 year old Vince Carter, who has some history with injuries, the guy you want to build around? That is the decision new GM Kiki Vandewegh has to figure out before he can do anything. I think Richard Jefferson is overpaid but his contract isn't bad. Devin Harris looks like he could turn out to be a bit of a bargain. That being said, if you are building around Carter, would you move Harris for a more veteran PG like Chauncey Billups or Baron Davis? Stromile Swift and Trenton Hassell are both expiring contracts (Hassell has a team option on his final year) so they are immediately on the block, as is Marcus Williams who seems like the odd man out after the Harris/Kidd deal. Sean Williams had a solid rookie campaign but is he going to be consistent enough to be a starter? Hell, even Josh Boone looked servicable at the end of the year. And what to do with Krstic? He's one of those guys that could get an ungodly offer from a team but if the Nets can retain him for a reasonable amount, you'd be best served to sign him up.

2. The Draft
Odds are that this pick along with at least a couple of Nets are headed somewhere else on draft day but if the Nets keep the pick, their most likely target is DeAndre Jordan. Jordan definitely has bust potential but the Nets are solid at pretty much every position so they can risk taking a flyer on Jordan.

Another reason they can take the flyer on Jordan is that they also have the #21 pick, where they should be able to grab a talented player like Mareese Speights, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Roy Hibbert, or Bill Walker. 

3. Trade Market
If the Nets can get Carmelo Anthony, you make the deal. I'd make pretty much everything on the roster available for Anthony. I still don't get why Denver is trying to trade him but if I'm Kiki Vandewegh, I don't care. Personally, I think the deal that makes more sense for the Nuggets would be an Iverson trade. Something along the lines of Devin Harris and #10 (alongside expiring contracts like Trenton Hassell and Stromile Swift) is more than enough to make the deal work. It gives Denver a better point guard and even the fodder like Hassell helps out defensively. You might even be able to make that deal with just Harris and the #21.

The Nets also could make a move of Richard Jefferson (plus salaries to make it match, including perhaps Marcus Williams) for Ron Artest and Brad Miller. I think Artest is someone they definitely look at as a defensive stopper alongside Carter and Iverson. Brad Miller's game is definitely declining but if he's the 4th or 5th option, I think he could be a solid addition. Another person I'd target is Stephen Jackson who might be on his way out if the Warriors decide to clear cap room and go young this offseason. Yes, the implosion risk with an Iverson/Carter/SJax or Artest lineup is high but I also think those are the kind of guys that will put everything on the line to get a ring (which should help balance out Vince's questionable desire)

But those are just two of many deals the Nets could make (and those could be worst case scenario deals with the Nets overpaying in both). if there's one GM I'd want to be this off-season, it's Kiki Vandewegh who should be in a great position to improve his team and make a legit run at the NBA Finals. There's no way that this team should be in the playoffs next season and I think it will be an absolute disappointment if they don't have home court for at least one round. They can make a play for almost every top available veteran (Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, Ron Artest) and should be able to walk out of the off-season with at least two top level new players.

4. Free Agency
If the Nets make the right moves, they should be the #1 destination for free agents. Veterans will be taking paycuts to play there.

5. Summary
Starters: Allen Iverson, Vince Carter, Ron Artest, Sean Williams, Brad Miller 
Bench: Nenad Krstic, Jason Williams, Josh Boone, James Posey, Eddie House, Penny Hardaway, Brian Skinner, Devin Brown. Brandon Rush

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

What a game. I haven't been that excited during a C's game since the Nets comeback of 2003.

Of course, we lost that series. The C's really need to focus on closing out this series in LA because I don't like LA getting any hint of life. I'd be very nervous about the Lakers, backs against the wall, playing with nothing to lose in Beantown.

As karma would have it, I might not even be able to watch game 5 since I'll be in Utah working that Sunday. Still, I'm hoping the Celtics close out the series and come home with a trophy rather than a date with the Laker girls.

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Not much to say about this one. The Celtics need to come back and push the action on both ends of the floor. Eddie House and Sam Cassell need to get solid minutes both to rest Rondo and to help the Celtics' spacing on offense. Personally, I think this is the C's series to lose so they just need to go out and establish their will and they should be able to come away with a 3 - 1 lead in the series.

Not that that will be easy. The Lakers haven't been playing very well and if Lamar Odom has an ounce of pride in his body, he should come to play tonight. The Lake Show should also look to establish Pau's post game early in the first half but we'll see if that happens.

Posted by SoulHonky at 10:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Bobcats are in the nether-world usually reserved for the Atlanta Hawks. They have some good young talent that's not great, they have some cap space but not enough to really grab a true star, and while the team has potential, it also has a ceiling that is far below actually contending for a title.

1. Sort Out The Roster 
Luckily for the Bobcats, Emeka Okafor didn't exactly step up this past season so they should be able to re-sign him for less than a max contract. They might even be able to keep him for around what they are paying Gerald Wallace (a good three million a year less than the max). Of course, those savings have already been wasted on the likes of Matt Carroll (not to mention Adam Morrison). Jason Richardson earned his keep with his performance (and improved shot) last season and Gerald Wallace is a legit #2 star in this league. Raymod Felton appears to be a good young talent but if he can put everything together remains to be seen. He didn't show much of any improvement last season. He's going to be the focal point of this offseason. The person who could benefit the most from Larry Brown is Sean May. If he proves to be a willing defender, he has the talent to become a real threat in Brown's offense. I'm just not sure he's going to be able to stay healthy long enough to ever live up to whatever potential he has left.

2. The Draft
I really can't imagine the Bobcats are going to make this pick. Jordan wants to win and you have to believe that Larry Brown doesn't want to deal with a rookie. The most obvious deal is a move for Brown's former PG, Chauncey Billups. That deal could have some stumbling blocks though since I'd bet that Dumars would want Felton and the #8 while Jordan would want to dump Matt Carroll's horrible contract if he has to give up the lotto pick. Could Larry Brown possibly be interested in working with Allen Iverson again? The Cats have cap space to make a deal but even still, this could be a tough deal to work.

Then again, it would be in Larry Brown's ego's best interest to try to shape Raymond Felton into a top point guard.  Could the Cats instead make a run at a power forward ala Rasheed Wallace or Jermaine O'Neal in a deal or throw a nice offer free agent Antawn Jamison's way.

If they hold onto the pick, they'd probably go with Brook Lopez or Russell Westbrook. 

3. Trade Market
The Bobcats have some cap space to deal with but making a deal will still be difficult because of what they have to use as fodder. Most deals will have to include Nazr Mohammed (3 years, 18 million) or Matt Carroll (5 years, 22 million) and not many people are going to be interested in those contracts. Sean May's value is limited because of his injury and weight issues. The one team that could be interested in a deal would be Denver, who could deal Kenyon Martin for Carroll, Nazr, and Sean May. If the Clippers are really interested in moving Elton Brand, they could look to swap Brand and Richardson although I could see the Clips want more. Would Jordan really give up his leading scorer and the #7 or Sean May for Brand? Do they have enough talent/contracts to make a Jermaine O'Neal trade work? And while I'm a big Rasheed Wallace fan, he's on the decline and I just don't think it makes sense for a young team to give up a top draft pick for him.

In the end, I think Charlotte is probably better off waiting until the trade deadline to make a move. Figure out how May and Felton work with Larry Brown and then see if you need to move them and what you can get. 

4. Free Agency
The first order of business is to grab a veteran point guard who can help Raymond Felton and appease Larry Brown. The ancient Lindsey Hunter is a good option while Darrell Johnson or Anthony Johnson might also fill in nicely. The biggest issue for the 'Cats is that while they are probably looking for veteran free agents, they aren't a winning team and have a ball-buster of a coach. That just doesn't seem very appealing. I just dont' see many people lining up to get yelled at in front of a 3/4 empty arena every night.

5. Summary
The Bobcats are in a situation which is pretty much impossible to gauge. You really have to have a direct line to most NBA general manager offices to be able to first gauge the value of their prospects (and how much someone like Okafor is going to get paid) and then to know if anyone is even remotely interested in taking on deals like Carroll or Mohammed. With the right minor changes and some luck in terms of health, Larry Brown could get this team to be next year's version of the Hawks or 76ers. I'm just not sure if they can really expect more than that (or if they are really looking for anything more than giving the few fans they have a reason to come to the games). 

Possible Final Roster
Starters: Raymond Felton, Jason Richardson, Gerald Wallace, Kenyon Martin, Emerka Okafor
Bench: Lindsey Hunter, Brook Lopez, Jared Dudley,  Adam Morrison, Othella Harrington, Jemarreo Davidson.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Bucks need to shake up their squad. The team has some talent but it just doesn't seem like an actual basketball team. Now deposed GM Larry Harris put together a rag tag bunch of questionably talented players but all isn't lost for the club.

1. Sort Out The Roster 
The first thing you have to do is figure out what to do with Michael Redd. Personally, I just don't think he's worth the money he's being paid so he needs to go. Then you look at the young guys (Bogut, Yi, Charlie V) and figure out who you want to keep and who you want to move. Right now, I'd be willing to deal any and all of them. In fact, like the Knicks, I don't think there's a single guy that I would consider a cornerstone who I'd build around.

2. The Draft
The trade I mentioned in the Knicks piece is intriguing but I just can't recommend that any team take on Zach Randolph. However, if Golden State does make the rumored Brandan Wright and #14 for Yi Jianlian, I think you have to take it. I'm actually a fan of Wright and think he could pan out in a couple of years so it's a no brainer to me. As for the draft pick, I think the decision is between Russell Westbrook and DJ Augustin and right now I'd bet on Westbrook.

In the second round, the Bucks should go after a defensive-minded big man, which should be available at #37. 

3. Trade Market
During the season, I made some trade suggestions for the Bucks but I'm not sure if any of them besides making a move for Ron Artest would be available anymore. If they could move Charlie V, Dez Mason and fodder for Artest, they should definitely think about that move.

Still, I would look into dealing Redd. The Cavs lowball offer of Wally, Damon Jones, and #19 isn't going to be enough. Would Michael Redd and #8 for Josh Howard and Jason Terry work for Dallas? They'd likely counter with Howard and Erick Dampier for Redd but I just don't think it would be wise to take on Damp's horrible deal. Corey Maggette, Cuttino Mobley, and the #7 might be the best possible deal. Even if they lose Maggette next year, they'd clear Redd's contract and have Mobley as an expiring deal along with another top young prospect.

If they can find a taker for Mo Williams, they should jump at it. Mo isnt' bad but 5 years of around 8.5 million per is too much.  Bobby Simmons's deal is getting shorter by the year but is still a tough pill to swallow. I'm not sure how Dan Gadzuric got his 4 years, 26 million dollar deal but I'm very sure that nobody is going to be all that interested in trading for it.

One underrated guy that I'd hold on to is Ramon Sessions. The last two games were likely an aberration but he's a hard working, pass first point guard, and a willing defender. At the very least, he's going to be a nice guy to have off the pine.

And, of course, there's always Bogut. Do you trade him? What can you get in return for him? The Bucks should try to re-sign Andrew Bogut to a sensible contract. If Bogut demands are too much, then he might have to move the mediocre big man.

4. Free Agency
I can't imagine anyone is all that interested in signing with the Bucks right now.

5. Summary
John Hammond's first year as Bucks GM might not be a flashy one as he isn't really in the best position in terms of trade assets. Dealing with Bogut and Redd will be his first two jobs but it's probably going to be another year of mediocrity for the Bucks.

Possible Final Roster
Starters: Mo Williams, Corey Maggette, Ron Artest, Brandan Wright, Andrew Bogut
Bench: Ramon Sessions, Russell Westbrook (#8), Bobby Simmons, Danilo Galinari (#7), DeAndre Jordan (#14), Charlie Bell, DJ White, Dan Gadzuric

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

One thought.  That was just a bad game.

From Sam Cassell forcing shots to Lamar Odom deciding running out the clock is for suckers and getting an offensive foul called on him, this was most certainly not a game for the ages. I'd love to sit back and say Pierce played poorly so the C's should have no problem winning when he's on but the fact remains that the Lakers also played like crap. Unfortunately, this is the kind of game that road teams have to steal in order to close out a playoff series.

I'm still sticking with my Celtics in 6 prediction but this was a giant step back. The C's were completely out of sorts. As I expected, they figured out the Lakers defense in the third but then they went away from it in the 4th and suddenly were back playing catch up and trying to adapt. They played desperate basketball in a close game. If the Lakers could hit a shot or Lamar Odom or Pau Gasol actually had shown up, the Lakers would have run away in the last quarter.

It was a bad game. I really wouldn't take a single thing out of this performance besides the fact that the Celtics can't let it happen again. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

This is not what I want to think about but the New York Daily News is reporting David Stern basically fixed games (click here for Daily News story).

According to new papers filed by Tim Donaghey, Stern directed officials to call a game 6 so that there would be a game seven. The Daily New claims that the series involved the Nets but it makes more sense that it was the Kings/Lakers series in which Vlade Divac and Scot Pollard fouled out and the Lakers shot 40 free throws to the Kings' 25.

This is frustrating, especially with the C's in the Finals but it's hard to ignore this. 

UPDATE: Click here for the Philly Inquirers story. 

Should be interesting to see how long it takes ESPN to pick up this story. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 10:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The C's main focus needs to be figuring out how the Lakers are going to adjust. Right now, everything is working for the Celtics (when they are actually playing and not running out the clock) and the pressure is on the Lakers to catch up to them. I'm expecting the C's to struggle a bit in the first half but then figure out the Lakers new defense in the second half. Right now I'm expecting the C's to win this game and lose the next two. 

THe biggest disappointment of the Finals, for me, is that the Lakers are playing as listlessly as the Pistons did, having an almost been there, done that attitude when they should be firing on all cylanders. Hopefully the Lake Show keep forgetting about feeding Pau Gasol in the post and Lamar Odom doesn't wake up.

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

While everyone likes to dump on the Clippers, they aren't in a bad position. It sounds like Shaun Livingston is done but Elton Brand should be healthy and Al Thornton has a year under his belt so they team should definitely be improved next season even if they stand pat.

1. Sort Out The Roster 
A lot of people act like Chris Kaman and Al Thornton make Elton Brand available but I think Brand is still hands down the best player on the roster. The only way I deal him is if I'm getting a top 2 or 3 pick back in return. I could see the Heat possibly moving the pick so they could team Brand with Wade and Marion. But if those offers don't come, the Clippers have Kaman, Brand, and Thornton to build around. Corey Maggette is a wild card since odds are that he is going to opt out. If he doesn't, he should be the team's #1 trade asset. Odds are they'll had to give up Maggette and the pick to make any big moves because, to match salaries and get a max player, they'll have to include Tim Thomas or Cuttino Mobley who have negative trade value right now.

Other than that, there's really not much on the roster worth discussing.

2. The Draft
The Clippers are in dire need of someone to fill the 1 and 2. Depending on Shaun Livingston is ridiculous because the kid wasn't even holding down the point when he was healthy. Relying on potential is one thing but relying on potential after a devastating knee injury is a recipe for disappointment. Sitting at the #7 pick, the Clippers choice will likely be between Eric Gordon or Russell Westbrook. DJ Augustin is a dark horse but I don't think I'd pass on Westbrook or Gordon for him. As of now, I'd go with Gordon. OK, actually I'd trade the pick but if Elgin Baylor can't find a good trade partner, then I go with Gordon.

With their second round pick, the Clippers should hope that a guard like Mario Chalmers might fall to them. If not, a backup big man like JJ Hickson, Joey Dorsey, or DJ White might not be bad picks. 

3. Trade Market
The Clippers might just have a chance to make a Celtics-like push this offseason. They can build around Brand and move Maggette and the pick and then Kaman or Thornton for another veteran. Whether Elgin Baylor can get it done is the real question. 

The first thing the Clippers need to do is check the availability for two LA-bred guards: Baron Davis and Gilbert Arenas. Getting one of them could be difficult since the Warriors or Wizards would have to bite the bullet and take Cuttino Mobley or Tim Thomas but either trade would be worth it. If they can't get either of those guys, they might want to make a push for TJ Ford. I'm not sure if Toronto would be down for a Ford for Maggette swap (or if Donald Sterling would allow it since Maggette is his favorite player) but it could work. Another option might be Michael Redd, if the Bucks are indeed looking to move his contract.

On the other hand, if the Heat or even Wolves come through with an offer of the #2 or #3 for Elton Brand, you'd have to consider it. One issue, however, might be how one thinks Beasley complements Kaman and Thornton. If Anthony Randolph falls to #7, I'd almost be willing to take Beasley at #2, Randolph #7, and look to move Thornton for a guard.

The Clippers are going to be one of the more interesting teams to watch this off-season, both because of the strides that they could make and the fact that historically they always make the most confusing, ill-advised moves. 

4. Free Agency
Until they sort out their roster, I doubt many people will be interested in becoming a Clipper unless they overpay them ala Tim Thomas. This could be where old friend Gerald Green ends up (New York also being a good possiblity if they have roster space). If the Clippers do make a big splash with a trade, then they could be able to snag guys like James Posey and Eddie House.

5. Summary
This is a make-or-break year for the Clippers. They are either going to make a push to become a contender or dump Brand and start with the youth movement yet again. While I'm usually a fan of the youth movement, Elgin's already proven that he's not adept at that so it is about time that they make a real run at making LA a two contender town.  

Possible Final Roster
Starters: Baron Davis, Q Ross, Al Thornton, Elton Brand, Chris Kaman
Bench: Eddie Jones, Kurt Thomas, Cuttino Mobley, Joey Dorsey, Brevin Knight, Keyon Dooling, Paul Davis, Nick Fazekas, Marcus Williams

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Chicago Bulls have decided to go with Vinny Del Negro as their head coach. So rather than having Doug Collins, Dwayne Casey, or even Chuck "The Rifleman" Person, the Bulls opted for a guy who has zero coaching experience and has been just an announcer and an assistant to the GM. Some people have argued that this was all about money, with Jerry Reinsdorf simply not wanting to pay Doug Collins. Whatever the reason, the Bulls offseason just got a lot more interesting since now everyone is an option. Ben Gordon could be back, Michael Beasley could go #1, you name it.

On a related note, if Jerry Reinsdorf is so obsessed with saving/making money, do you think he's looked at the latest draft odds which have OJ Mayo as 50 - 1 to go first overall and thought about putting some money down? If he spreads his bets around ala the Black Sox scandal he could make some serious coin. And it's not like OJ Mayo isn't a good prospect. (And yes, I'm joking about this actually happening.) 

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

POWE!

Leon was truly The Professional tonight against the Lakers. His aggresiveness was the key. I loved that in the post-game interview, Phil Jackson complained about the officiating and that Leon shot more free throws than the the Laker team and then one queston later was asked about how Leon Powe was somehow able to drive down the lane for a wide open dunk. Eventually Phil admitted that his team wasn't aggresive enough and also wasn't even taking charge when they were available.

No doubt, the officials were terrible. It was very one-sided (and yes, I know the C's didn't get ALL the calls but they got more than their fair share) and featured one of the worst sequences I've ever seen in a basketball game, playoff or not. Pierce pulled Kobe's arm off during a drive, then on the other end Derek Fisher was tackled, followed by Vlad Rad stealing the ball next time down and taking three or four steps on a lay-up.

As for the fourth, the Celtics played poorly as they did in stretches in game 1: leaving people open, not starting the offense until late in the shot clock, lazy passes, etc. Doc Rivers commented that the Celts were running down the clock and playing the score rather than playing the game. While I don't like the shot of confidence it gave the Lakers, I am happy that the Celtics aren't heading into LA with big heads. They now know that no lead is safe and that if they let up for an instant that this Lakers squad will be able to beat them.

Right now, the Celtics just need to keep playing their game until the Lakers alter their defense to stop them. Radmanovic on Pierce is a disaster and could get the Lake Show swept. On defense, the C's are doing a good job forcing Kobe into tough shots. Hopefully the Lakers will continue to ignore Pau Gasol who made the defensive player of the year KG look silly on a couple of post plays.

And Paul Pierce continues to make a bigger name for himself with some key shots, drives, and one huge block.  

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Sacramento Kings have the most loyal fans in the NBA so you know that things are bad when people decide to find other things to do in Sac-town rather than go check out the Kings. The problem with Sacramento is two-fold: they aren't good and they aren't even fun to watch.

1. Sort Out The Roster 
Kevin Martin is the resident superstar but I'm not a huge fan of his game, primarily because he's pretty one-dimensional. While he might be the best shooter in the league, he doesn't do much else on offense, has a 1-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and doesn't create much of anything for his teammates. His defense is also nothing to write home about. On the other hand, I'm still a huge fan of Ron Artest.  

2. The Draft

3. Trade Market

4. Free Agency

5. Summary

Possible Roster
Starters:
Bench

Posted by SoulHonky at 10:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

What to do with the Indiana Pacers. They might have the worst salary situation outside of New York City and have little potential to hang their hope on.

1. Sort Out The Roster 
Danny Granger is the only bright spot on this roster although I think he's a #2 star and not a legit franchise player. Jermaine O'Neal is now underrated IMO but he's on the decline and vastly overpaid. Mike Dunleavy Jr. emerged as a player in 2008 but I'm not sold on him. I think Bird would be best suited to sell while Dunleavy's value is high. Jamaal Tinsley and Troy Murphy are almost unmovable and definitely have negative value in terms of trades. Shawne Williams showed some improvement but seems awkward on the court. He's only 22 so you have to hold onto him. Nobody else really merits much discussion.

2. The Draft
You can make a strong argument for the Pacers being this decade's worst team in terms of the draft. The only thing in their favor is that they haven't been drafting in the lottery. Besides not drafting well, they've also given away lottery picks for guys like Jeff Foster and Al Harrington. Honestly, I'm not sure that this year will be any better.

Best case scenario, DJ Augustin doesn't move up into the top 10 and the Pacers can draft for need and add a point guard. If he's not there, then the pick might be between the best remaining PF prospects like Joe Alexander, Darrell Arthur, Marreese Speights, etc.  

3. Trade Market
The Pacers have to deal Jermaine O'Neal and pretty much everyone knows that. Even worse, JO makes so much money that it's going to be nearly impossible for the Pacers to throw in a guy like Jamaal Tinsley in order to dump that contract. Jermaine for Stephon Marbury and the #6 probably isn't possible because the Knicks need the lotto pick in order to dump Randolph. The stumbling block with the Cavs deal is likely Ben Wallace, whom I'd bet the Cavs would rather deal instead of the expiring contracts of Wally Szczerbiak, Eric Snow, and Damon Jones. Perhaps the Bucks could offer Bobby Simmons, Mo Williams, and Charlie Villenueva but that seems like a lot and they might want a pick back in return which I wouldn't do if I was Indiana because I'm not exactly thrilled about any of the three players I'm getting back for JO.  In the end, the Pacers decision might come down to either holding on to O'Neal for one more year (or until the trade deadline) or taking the Cavs lowball offer.

Another deal I would look into would be Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Marquis Daniels for Andrei Kirilenko. I like AK-47 working with Jim O'Brien and in Indiana, he'd get to be back at his more natural power forward position.  

4. Free Agency
Indiana might be where Tony Allen or Delonte West ends up. Both could work well in O'Brien's system at the 2 guard. Matt Barnes also might not be a terrible pickup for cheap while Mo Evans would be a nice fit as well, if Orlando lets him go. Unfortunately, after the Pacers decline and Jermaine O'Neal's public complaints and pleas to get out of town, I'm just not sure many quality players are going to be looking at Indiana as a possible new home.

5. Summary
Starters: Jamaal Tinsley, Mo Evans, Danny Granger, Andrei Kirilenko, Jermaine O'Neal.
Bench: Shawne Williams, Troy Murphy, DJ Augustin, Tony Allen, Jeff Foster, Ike Diogu, Travis Diener, Matt Barnes, David Harrison.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

If any team is going to make a run like the Celtics in the offseason, the Nets are it. If they want to build around Vince Carter (who came alive after the Kidd deal), they have some great trade assets in Devin Harris, Richard Jefferson, the #10 pick along with Marcus & Sean Williams and the right to Nenad Krstic (who is a free agent).

1. Sort Out The Roster 
Of course, the question remains: is a maxed out, 31 year old Vince Carter, who has some history with injuries, the guy you want to build around? That is the decision new GM Kiki Vandewegh has to figure out before he can do anything. I think Richard Jefferson is overpaid but his contract isn't bad. Devin Harris looks like he could turn out to be a bit of a bargain. That being said, if you are building around Carter, would you move Harris for a more veteran PG like Chauncey Billups or Baron Davis? Stromile Swift and Trenton Hassell are both expiring contracts (Hassell has a team option on his final year) so they are immediately on the block, as is Marcus Williams who seems like the odd man out after the Harris/Kidd deal. Sean Williams had a solid rookie campaign but is he going to be consistent enough to be a starter? Hell, even Josh Boone looked servicable at the end of the year. And what to do with Krstic? He's one of those guys that could get an ungodly offer from a team but if the Nets can retain him for a reasonable amount, you'd be best served to sign him up.

2. The Draft
Odds are that this pick along with at least a couple of Nets are headed somewhere else on draft day but if the Nets keep the pick, their most likely target is DeAndre Jordan. Jordan definitely has bust potential but the Nets are solid at pretty much every position so they can risk taking a flyer on Jordan.

Another reason they can take the flyer on Jordan is that they also have the #21 pick, where they should be able to grab a talented player like Mareese Speights, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Roy Hibbert, or Bill Walker. 

3. Trade Market
If the Nets can get Carmelo Anthony, you make the deal. I'd make pretty much everything on the roster available for Anthony. I still don't get why Denver is trying to trade him but if I'm Kiki Vandewegh, I don't care. Personally, I think the deal that makes more sense for the Nuggets would be an Iverson trade. Something along the lines of Devin Harris and #10 (alongside expiring contracts like Trenton Hassell and Stromile Swift) is more than enough to make the deal work. It gives Denver a better point guard and even the fodder like Hassell helps out defensively. You might even be able to make that deal with just Harris and the #21.

The Nets also could make a move of Richard Jefferson (plus salaries to make it match, including perhaps Marcus Williams) for Ron Artest and Brad Miller. I think Artest is someone they definitely look at as a defensive stopper alongside Carter and Iverson. Brad Miller's game is definitely declining but if he's the 4th or 5th option, I think he could be a solid addition. Another person I'd target is Stephen Jackson who might be on his way out if the Warriors decide to clear cap room and go young this offseason. Yes, the implosion risk with an Iverson/Carter/SJax or Artest lineup is high but I also think those are the kind of guys that will put everything on the line to get a ring (which should help balance out Vince's questionable desire)

But those are just two of many deals the Nets could make (and those could be worst case scenario deals with the Nets overpaying in both). if there's one GM I'd want to be this off-season, it's Kiki Vandewegh who should be in a great position to improve his team and make a legit run at the NBA Finals. There's no way that this team should be in the playoffs next season and I think it will be an absolute disappointment if they don't have home court for at least one round. They can make a play for almost every top available veteran (Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, Ron Artest) and should be able to walk out of the off-season with at least two top level new players.

4. Free Agency
If the Nets make the right moves, they should be the #1 destination for free agents. Veterans will be taking paycuts to play there.

5. Summary
Starters: Allen Iverson, Vince Carter, Ron Artest, Sean Williams, Brad Miller 
Bench: Nenad Krstic, Jason Williams, Josh Boone, James Posey, Eddie House, Penny Hardaway, Brian Skinner, Devin Brown.

Posted by SoulHonky at 07:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

While I know this game is huge, I wouldn't consider it a "must win" and for that reason, I would keep Pierce's minutes down a bit. Give James Posey more time, go big with KG at the 3, or even give Tony Allen some spot minutes. The C's can't focus on winning this battle and possibly hurting their star for the rest of the war.

Other than that, the C's should work to improve off of their last outing. Rondo and the PG's need to stay on Fisher better and not give him open looks. The defense on Kobe was great and they should look to continue forcing him into off-balance jumpers. The offense needs to stay focused and work on not breaking down so much. Especially in the 4th, the C's had a lot of discombobulated trips down the floor, many times getting their offense started with little time left on the shot clock.

In the end, it should be another great game and the Celts should look for an energized Lakers squad to open the game. I thought they seemed lackluster in game 1 and should be more fired up to start this game. If the C's can withstand the opening punch, I think they should be sitting pretty in the fourth and be able to take a 2 - 0 lead. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The goal of the Knicks is to clear out space for 2010 when the class of LeBron, Wade, 'Melo, etc. hits the free agent market. Mike D'Antoni says he wants to win but I'm not sure if you can win and clear out cap space at the same time. 

1. Sort Out The Roster 
To be completely honest, there isn't one single person on the Knicks roster who looks like a bonafide keeper. Nate Robinson is fun to watch but is a bench player, Jamal Crawford scores and doesn't do much else, David Lee showed promise in his rookie season but didn't improve all that much and supposedly isn't a favorite of D'Antoni, and so on and so forth.

Even worse though is the fact that they have a few players that many people believe are untradeable. Stephon Marbury make 20+ million and has been the face of the putrid Knicks over the last few years. The Knicks would love to get rid of him but can they without taking on a contract that lasts past 2010? I wouldn't trade for Zach Randolph. Period. I'm sure someone will be dumb enough to repeat Isiah's mistake but the guy has a lousy attitude, is a black hole on offense, and doesn't play much defense. Eddy Curry doesn't even seem like he enjoys playing basketball. He is probably the most movable piece but even that will be tough to pull off.

2. The Draft
If the Knicks make the Marbury to Seattle deal to move up in the draft, they might just be able to end up with OJ Mayo. If not, Jerryd Bayless is a good second place prize. True, he might just be a newer version of Jamal Crawford, but I think he'll pan out better than Jamal. Without the trade, the Knicks have an outside shot at getting Bayless but they might end up choosing from the top big men or projects like Randolph. I just don't see Galinari being the pick, even if it would make Little Italy happy. When looking at the big picture, I think it might make sense for Donnie Walsh to bite the bullet and make an Ainge-like #6 and Zach for scraps with short term contracts (ala the Raef/Roy deal). The current rumor is Philly making the deal but I don't think you could ask for a worse combo for a young team than Zach Randolph alongside Andre Miller during a contract year.

Another rumor had Golden State pushing hard for Yi Jianlian so a three team deal would work with New York dealing Randolph, Malik Rose's expiring deal, and the #6 and getting Bobby Simmons, Al Harrington, and Brandan Wright. The Warriors dump a year off Harrington's contract and the apparently unwanted Wright for Yi & Malik Rose while moving up from #14 to #8. Milwaukee gets Zach, New York's #6, and Golden State's #14. (And if New York also makes the Marbury deal, then Milwaukee would end up getting the #4 pick)  

The Knicks traded their second round pick for Zach Randolph. 

3. Trade Market
Again, I really can't believe anyone would deal for Zach Randolph so the Knicks are going to have to leverage their #6 pick (and possibly David Lee as well) in order to ship him out.

I'm not sure who wants Eddy Curry but since Rick Sund is back in the GM business and loves him some project centers, I wouldn't be stunned if Atlanta made a run at him. Eddy Curry and Jamal Crawford for Marvin Williams, Speedy Claxton, Zaza Pachulia, and a future pick? Atlanta might like Marvin but adding a 20 point scorer off the bench and Curry (whose defensive lapses can be covered by Horford and Josh Smith) is tough to turn down. The Knicks give up more talent but they also get rid of the last two big contracts that they have on the books in 2010. Ideally they could also dump Jared Jeffiries in the deal but that would take a third team to work. The better deal might be Jamal, Eddy, and Jeffiries for Jermaine O'Neal and Marquis Daniels but I don't think it's a smart move. Of course, that's never stopped Larry Bird before.

On the other hand, the Knicks could also move the sixth pick, perhaps in a deal to get someone like Shawn Marion (see the Heat mock offseason). Right now I'd bet against that one because it doesn't help their cap nor does it dump Zach's contract.

4. Free Agency
New York is New York so people will always want to come to play. But with the Knicks looking to keep the books clear for 2010, I'm not sure exactly who they can get. They might have to settle for some short-term guys ala Ricky Davis, Gordon Giricek, or old friend Gerald Green.

5. Summary
No matter what D'Antoni says, this is a rebuilding year and the Knicks are likely going to be at the bottom once again (although they should have a rosier future than they've had in a decade or so). The key is to build a roster that should have better trade assets and short terms contracts so that even if they can't get LeBron, they should have some good youngster and cap space as a plan B. The roster I built isn't great (or even good) but next year they'll have decent talent almost all of which will be on expiring deals so they can make some legit offers in 2009 (or wait until the cap space arrives in 2010)

Possible Final Roster
Starters: Luke Ridnour, Nate Robinson, Marvin Williams, David Lee, Nick Collison
Bench: Al Harrington, Bobby Simmons, Brandan Wright, Earl Watson, Zaza Pachulia, Renaldo Balkman, Wilson Chandler, Jerome James, Jared Jeffiries, Mardy Collins, Speedy Claxton

Posted by SoulHonky at 02:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

1. Sort Out The Roster 
On the bright side, Memphis does have some solid young talent. Rudy Gay is living up to my expectations (and surprising the doubters) while the PG position is packed with Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry, and Javarris Crittenton. I'm not a huge fan of Hakim Warrick but he's good enough and is also someone who might have some trade value.

Brian Cardinal and Darko Milicic are eating up cap space but they both only have two years left on their deals so it isn't so bad. The Grizz should really put Mike Miller out of his misery and ship him out while they still can.

2. The Draft
I would have pegged DeAndre Jordan for this spot but after his disappointing pre-draft measurements/times, he seems like a good candidate to fall in the draft (if he even stays in). Anthony Randolph sounds a little like a very rich man's Kedrick Brown who Chris Wallace LOVED back in 2001. One issue could be the fact that Randolph seems more like a Travis Outlaw-type SF as opposed to a power forward and Rudy Gay already has the small forward spot locked up. Kevin Love or Brook Lopez could fit the PF spot but Lopez replicates Darko and I'm still not sold on Love going so early.

The Grizzlies could deal the pick but I'm just not sure who they could get that will help them long term. If they couldn't win with Pau Gasol, who's the 5th pick going to fetch that is somehow better than that? Do they roll the dice with the Pistons veterans and trade Miller, Darko, and Conley for 'Sheed and Billups? Would they have to include the #5 to make that happen and would Detroit even be interested? Darko didn't exactly wow Joe Dumars during his first go-around.

3. Trade Market
Mike Miller is the main asset but after giving away Pau Gasol, Chris Wallace might not be getting the best offers for him. In true Chris Wallace fashion, a cost-cutting deal like Miller and Brian Cardinal for Wally Szczerbiak, Damon Jones (both expiring deals) and the #19 picks might be enough.

EDIT: Chad Ford had an interesting draft idea: Mike Miller, Kyle Lowry and the #5 for the #2 and Marcus Banks or Mark Blount. One thing that doesn't make much sense to me though is why Miami would be interested in Lowry when they're target would be PG of the future OJ Mayo. Still, it would be a great move for the Grizz who could grab Beasley to take over the PF spot they vacated when they gave away Pau Gasol.

They also might be able to get something for Juan Carlos Navarro in a sign-and-trade but it probably won't be much. If Phoenix or New Jersey really wants to dump their pick, perhaps a Navarro for the pick deal could be worked out.

4. Free Agency
In order to get people to play for the Grizzles, they'd have to spend money and I just don't see that happening this offseason.

5. Summary
The Grizzlies have further to go down before they hit rock bottom. The plan is probably to stock up on young talent and clear out cap space and then to try to build with sensibly priced players. It sounds good but is nearly impossible for even the best GM's to pull off so I can't imagine Chris Wallace will be very successful.

Possible Final Roster
Starters: Mike Conley, Rudy Gay, Wally Szczberiak, Chris Wilcox, Darko Milicic
Bench: Kyle Lowry, Brandon Rush, Hakim Warrick, Lorenzen Wright, Anthony Randolph, Damon Jones, Shavlik Randolph, Scot Pollard, Casey Jacobsen.

Posted by SoulHonky at 11:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Needing a break from listening to Lakers fans complain that Paul faked his injury, let's get back to the offseason. The Bulls are shaping up to be my favorite team to follow this offseason (Thankfully, the C's offseason hasn't started and doesn't need to be as intense). Besides having the Beasley/Rose debate, their coaching decision seems to be heating up as well. The new rumor is that former Timberwolves coach Dwayne Casey is the frontrunner. I think this is the right move. Not only is Casey supposedly good with developing young players but he's also not the hard ass that Collins is. Personally, I just don't get replacing one tough coach who lost the team with another tough coach. Also, I'm happy to see Casey get a second chance after McHale did him wrong by firing him when he had the Wolves playing .500 ball. (The team went 12 - 30 for the rest of the season under new coach Randy Wittman).

Casey also seems like someone who'll be able to adapt to the Bulls roster as opposed to the Bulls having to adapt their roster to Doug Collins. With Casey in charge, Michael Beasley becomes a more viable option, as does re-signing Ben Gordon. Also, not having Collins around might keep Ty Thomas off of the path to Kwame Brown-land. Now whether Paxson will make the right move remains to be seen but this would be the bet move Paxson has made in a couple years.

Worst case scenario, Casey comes in, works with the young guys, and then in a couple years you bring in someone to take the team to the next level. Ironically, kind of like what happened with Collins and Phil Jackson.

And reading to much into this whole issue, could the shift away from Collins possibly be a signal that the Bull could be looking at drafting Beasley? Could a deal involving Hinrich, Nocioni, #1 for Marion and #2 be in the works? Probably not but if I was a Bulls fan, I'd like to think so.

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Whining about refs. Whispering about Pierce faking his injury. The worst part about living in LA is that even when the Lakers lose, you can't enjoy it because people complain so much and make up fake excuses as to why the Lake Show was shut down.

The Lakers didn't shoot well. The Celtics played some nice defense but they can't rest on their laurels and think how they played is going to be enough for the rest of the series. The C's defense had some lapses (especially on Fish in the first half) and, on offense, they made too many mistakes in the 4th when they should have been putting the final nail in the Lakers' coffin. Ray Allen's mistakes are most annoying; I don't mind him not being able to shoot but when he's bouncing the ball off of his foot and throwing ill-advised passes it's adding insult to injury.

On the bright side, Paul Pierce gave an elite-level performance and KG was strong. While his dunk in the 4th was great, the best move he had was a play or two after when he took the ball strong to the hole. Rondo was solid running the point and Sam Cassell made some big plays although he did have a senior moment in the middle of the game, forcing some shots and then passing up another when the shot clock was running out. PJ Brown was huge and helped the C's overcome Perkins' lousy game.  

But the most intriguing part of this game to me was the fact that the Lakers didn't seem to have much of any fire. Even Kobe seemed eerily calm and in his post-game interview he seemed almost non-plussed by the loss.  In fact, all of the Lakers seemed to kind of blow it off as if they'll easily step up and take game 2.

I can't wait for game 2. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Posted by SoulHonky at 11:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

When Seattle moves, they will no longer be the Sonics and I have no idea what the new name will be. Cowboys, Pioneers, Bullfrogs, Flight, who knows. But the state bird is the Scissortale Flycatcher so I went with that.

1. Sort Out The Roster 
While I'm still not a huge fan of Jeff Green, he seems to have a place in the Sonics's future alongside Kevin Durant. I'm not sure how long the Durant at the 2 experiment will continue but it seems like GM Sam Presti is convinced it can work. The Sonics have to figure out what to do with Robert Swift. I can't imagine he'll demand too much money but do they really want to spend more time on him rather than their other project big men, Saer Sene and Johan Petro?

The veterans aren't much. Chris Wilcox is solid and they might be able to find a taker for him and his expiring contract. Ditto for Nick Collison. Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson aren't terrible but they are both overpaid so I'm not sure who'd really be interested in them, especially since they are the point guards on a team that is widely considered to be desperate for a point guard.. Damien Wilkins is solid but unspectacular. Donyell Marshall is washed up but he's an expiring contract so he could have some value.

2. The Draft
There are reports that the Sonics could be shopping the pick which makes some sense. If any younger star for the #4 and Chris Wilcox and Donyell Marshall's expiring contract they should jump at it but it's hard to say right now who is available. Wilcox, Marshall, and #4 for Richard Jefferson (and the #10 or a future pick, perhaps)? A sign and trade for Agent Zero? One interesting option could be for the Sonics to clear out most of their contracts (Luke Ridnour, Nick Collison, Earl Watson, and Donyell Marshall) along with the 4 for one year of Stephon Marbury and David Lee and the 6. I'm one of the few people in the world who thinks Steph is prime for a comeback season so I'd make the deal D'Antoni gets another white pass-first, defend-never PG in Ridnour and a big man with a better shot in Collison, although Nick's deal goes into 2010 when the Knicks are looking for LeBron cap space so they might not be interested in him.

Presti should be working the phone but if the deal doesn't happen then the choice is between Jerryd Bayless and Anthony Randolph.  Bayless seems like the better player but Randolph fits the roster and Presti's love for tall versatile players.

The Sonics also have the #24, #32, and #46 picks so they'll be able to stock up on quality young players like Bill Walker, Ty Lawson, Javale McGee as well as foreign sliders like Omer Asik, Omri Casspi, or Anton Ponkrashov.

3. Trade Market
None of the Sonics have huge long term contract so all of them are pretty dealable. Yes, Luke Ridnour is overpaid at 6 million per year but since it's only two years, people might be willing to roll the dice. Collison has three years left but he seems a bit more useful. The hardest guy to move is probably Earl Watson (also at 6 million) which is why I'd probably just dump them all in the Marbury deal.

That leaves Chris Wilcox, who is just 25 years old, makes only 6 million, and has had a couple of solid seasons. The reason I think the Sonics might want to deal him is mainly because I think they'd like someone better defensively in the paint and he's also not one of Presti's guys. I could see him being shopped around and Memphis seems like the best destination. A move that could work would be Wilcox and the #32 for Jason Collins, Javarris Crittenton, and the #28. Yes, Crittenton and the #28 are two of the main pieces the Grizz got for Pau Gasol but Chris Wallace is an idiot and the owners are cheap so they'd probably be happy to have the #32 and the non-guarenteed second round contract as opposed to the #28. I'm a big fan of Crittenton and I think, at 6'5, he'd be a good complement to Jerryd Bayless (should they draft him at #4), who could focus more on scoring and Durant moves to the SF position where I feel he is better suited. Either way, the Sonics should be able to find a taker for Chris Wilcox (if they want to deal him) and the deal I offered would probably be the low-water mark for what they expect back. (Of course, as I type this I find out that he just arrested on a weapons charge which might make the Crittenton deal about right).

4. Free Agency
The Sonics don't have much cap space this year and also don't seem to be much of a draw. While they could offer deals to guys like Ryan Gomes, they might be better off waiting until next season when they have loads of cap space and will be able to go after bigger game via signings or trades.

5. Summary
The Sonics could be setting themselves up much like the Blazers did these last few years, clearing up cap space while loading up on young talent. It's a wide open draft day for the Sonics and they could head into next season with loads of youth and almost no long term contracts holding them down. It will be a brand new day and a bright future when they finally get to Oklahoma City.

Possible Final Roster
Starters: Javarris Crittenton, Jerryd Bayless, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Johan Petro
Bench: Nick Collison, Luke Ridnour, Earl Watson, Damien Wilkins, Bill Walker, Saer Sene, Robert Swift, Adrian Griffin, Jamont Gordon, Donyell Marshal.

Posted by SoulHonky at 10:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

From Yahoo! Sports: 

When much of the league was determined to make a serious bid for the 7-footer, how could Memphis settle so long before the February trade deadline for such a paltry offer out of the Lakers? For the first time, even Heisley wondered whether his general manager, Chris Wallace, blew it by caving so soon to the Lakers. “I don’t know if I got the most value,” Heisley confessed. “Maybe our people should’ve shopped (Gasol) more and maybe we would’ve gotten more, done a better deal. Maybe Chris did call every team in the league. I don’t think he did, but maybe he should’ve…”

Second only to the Celtics being in the Finals is the comforting knowledge that Chris Wallace has nothing to do with this franchise anymore. If the owner doesn't think Wallace can even correctly handle the first aspect of being a GM, making phone calls, then how in the world does he expect him to ever build a team?

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

2008's Boston West didn't fare much better than 2007's Boston Celtics. Big Al Jefferson continued to make a name for himself and the team came together to steal some victories at the end of the year but Kevin McHale's squad is still a long way from being a quality basketball team.

1. Sort Out The Roster 
After trading Kevin Garnett and having multiple lottery picks, you'd think the Wolves would have a lot of young talent. Unfortunately, all they really have is The Unstoppable Al Jefferson. I've never been a fan of Randy Foye, who seems to be a Barbosa-lite 6th man. He'll be able to put up points on a bad team but I'm just not sure where he fits on a contender. Ryan Gomes is solid but I've never liked how he fits alongside Jefferson. Same goes for Craig Smith, although I might be more inclined to re-sign him. Corey Brewer was a disappointment but should be able to hang around as a defensive presence. Rashad McCants seems a lot like Ricky Davis; a great scorer who could be a good defender but isn't and whom won't ever live up to his potential. I'm still rooting for Sebastian Telfair but he has a ways to go to improve his game.

As for veterans, Antoine Walker seemed to be a good mentor to the kiddie corps but he's expressed a desire to get out of Minnesota. Marko Jaric is solid but vastly overpaid. Greg Buckner is also overpaid and his best days, which weren't even all that good, are behind him.

So, basically, the Wolves need a little bit of everything and  should focus on building around Mr. Jefferson. 

2. The Draft
If I'm a Wolves fan, I love Brook Lopez right now. Reports have it that Lopez doesn't want to work out for the Wolves which is probably going to keep McHale and Assistant GM Rob Babcock (of Rafael Araujo fame) from drafting Lopez. I'm not as down on Brook as a lot of people are; he could be a good big man in the league but he won't be great and that's what you should be looking for with the #3 pick. The best player available is OJ Mayo and that's who the Wolves should take. It's really that simple.

At #31, the Wolves should be able to get a first round talent. Someone will likely fall in this draft and the Wolves should be sitting pretty to scoop that person up.

3. Trade Market
Antoine Walker's contract as a team option on it next year which means he's basically an expiring contract. That gives him some value, especially if he is combined with some of the Wolves young talent. Marko Jaric would be a nice guard to team with Mayo and his 3 years, 21 million makes him almost untradeable. The same goes for Greg Buckner.

Unfortunately, trades won't be easy to come by because even though Walker's an expiring deal, he doesn't make that much money and he's not that great anymore. More often than not, it's better just to let the player walk than to take on the type of bad deal you end up saddled with. One possibility though is Denver. If they are desperate to cut salary, they might be willing to deal Nene. Walker and McCants for Nene, perhaps?

The Wolves might want to see what they could get for Randy Foye at this point but it might be better to give him a full year to show what he can do. He should be a solid sixth man and give the Wolves a decent 3 guard rotation with Mayo and Jaric. 

4. Free Agency
Not many people seemed interested in going to Minnesota when they had KG so I can't imagine that anyone is looking forward to playing there now. In a perfect world, they'd make a run at Emeka Okafor who could supply a great defensive complement to Big Al but the odds of that happening are slim-to-none. The Wolves might want to take a run at JR Smith, who I still think has a chance to be an All-Star caliber player. Most likely though, the Wolves will be best suited by just adding some roster fodder this season. They don't want to pull the McHale special and overpay a role player (with a long term contract to boot).

5. Summary
Rebuilding takes time but the Wolves should be able to land themselves at least a second major building block this offseason. If they can add solid players with Antoine's contract and the #31 pick, it's all the sweeter. Still, Wolves fans should keep one eye on guys like Blake Griffin, BJ Mullens, and Dermarr Derozen (as well as Spaniard Ricky Rubio) as they try to figure out who they get with a top pick in 2009.

Possible Final Roster
Starters: OJ Mayo, Marko Jaric, Corey Brewer, Al Jefferson, Nene
Bench: Randy Foye, Craig Smith, Greg Buckner, Chris Richard, Davon Jefferson, Mark Madsen, Gordon Giricek, Earl Barron.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

With Game 1 slow approaching, it's left a lot of time for discussion on strategy. Personally, I've always been a proponent of the "No Folk Hero" method. Let the star be the star and don't let some little known guy or role player rise up and beat you. In the case of the Lakers, I'd let Kobe get his and try to turn the Lakers into the Kobe Show. Rondo can't leave Derek Fisher or Sasha Vujacuc and allow him to nail some key three pointers. Ditto for whoever is guarding Vlad Rad.

I'm happy with Garnett locking down Odom with the P-Unit (Perkins, Powe, PJ) beating up Pau Gasol so I think there's a good shot that the C's could shut down Kobe's teammates enough that, if his shot isn't falling, he'll get frustrated. Kobe is going to put a TON of pressure on himself in these playoffs and I really think the odds of a Mamba Implosion are fairly good, especially if his teammates aren't helping him out. Also, if Kobe does beat his man, I wouldn't be afraid to make him earn his points on the line. I'm not above beating up the MVP with Perkins, Powe, and Big Baby. Basketball is a non-contact sport but PLAYOFF basketball is a street fight with refeees.

As for the offense, I'd run it through Pierce but if we do that he HAS to make better decisions. For every game that reminds you why he's called the Truth, he has a couple in which he makes lazy passes and some very questinable decisions. Also, whoever is guarded by Kobe has to try to take it to the rack. Force Bean to work on defense and perhaps get him in foul trouble. KG might also want to float away from the post. Lamar Odom is an underrated defender especially when it comes to big games and even Gasol can help out. I'd start out by opening the floor up and giving Pierce, Rondo, and Ray some lanes to the hoop. (Hopefully Ray's shooting woes in the playoffs have reminded him that he is indeed allowed to put the ball on the floor and go hard to the hoop.)

The final issue is the point guard spot and I think Doc has to improvise with it. I'd open with Eddie House as the primary backup since he does a better job opening up the floor with his shooting ability but if the Lakers seem to be pressuring him or if Pierce isn't able to run the offense, it could be time to turn to Sam Cassell.

RIght now, I'm loving that the C's are the underdogs and that everyone is looking past them. It's exactly what this team needs to kill the nerves and get them to just go out and play their game. Forget about rings, legacies, history, what have you. Dont' even worry about beating L.A. Go out and play the type of ball that got the Celtics the best record in the league and I think things will sort themselves out. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Heat tanked at the end of the year and now find themselves one slot away from the player they covet, Derrick Rose.

1. Sort Out The Roster 
Like the Bulls, the Heat have one bonafide keeper. Fortunately for the Heat, their keeper is Dwyane Wade who is better than Luol Deng and is under contract. The only other real talent on the Heat's roster is Shawn Marion but you'd think that he'd have to be on the trading block since he's their only tradeable commodity and is an expiring deal to boot.

After that, what can you say? Jason Williams's contract is up and he's probably gone. Ditto for Ricky Davis. Udonis Haslem might have some trade value but I doubt it. Besides, he's an expiring deal next year and will be more valuable. I've always been a fan of Marcus Banks but even I wouldn't give up anything if it meant having to take on his 3 year, 16 million dollar contract. And let's not even bring up Mark Blount.

That leaves you with Daequan Cook and the restricted free agent Dorrell Wright. Wright isn't bad but he's an 9th man at best. Earl Barron used to seem like a player with potential but he stunk up the joint when he got playing time this past season so I don't really see him as anything but someone to anchor the end of the bench, if the Heat even bother to re-sign him.

2. The Draft
Word is that Pat Riley and the Heat love Derrick Rose but I'm not sold on a backcourt of Rose and Wade since neither of them is much of a shooter. There's also word that the Heat are looking at OJ Mayo. He's a better fit than Rose but it still doesn't make sense because I just don't see how you could pass up Michael Beasley. Beasley's outside shot will help open up the lane for Wade and those two should become a killer pick-and-roll combo.

There's always the option of trading down, but if the target is Mayo, how far down can you go? I wouldn't bet on him getting past Minnesota and what can the Wolves offer that makes up the difference between Mayo and Beasley? Corey Brewer? No. I'm not a fan of Randy Foye but even if I was it wouldn't matter since it makes no sense to grab him when you're going to draft Mayo to play alongside Wade. In the end, I don't think there's a deal that makes sense outside of the Heat dealing the #2 for a star ala Carlos Boozer or Elton Brand.

Miami gave up their second rounder years ago in the Antoine Walker deal. 

3. Trade Market
The Heat would have to listen to offers of Brand or Boozer for the #2 but the deals would be hard to make since the team getting Beasley would also have to take on Mark Blount and possibly Udonis Haslem. A Utah deal would probably look like Boozer and Harpring for Blount, Haslem, Alexander Johnson, and the #2. The Jazz would cut a year off of Harpring's deal although I can't imagine Blount's attitude lasting long with Jerry Sloan. Still, if the Heat can add an All-Star for the #2, it's something they have to look into.

Similarly, the Heat also might need to look into dealing Marion for a couple of players. That being said, if the offer is Kirk Hinrich and Andres Nocioni, Miami would probably be better off holding onto Marion and trying to make a splash in the upcoming free agent market. THAT being said, they have to be careful because they don't want to bank on the free agent market, come up empty, and then face the possibility of Dwyane Wade opting out and leaving in 2010.

One interesting move could be Marion reteaming with D'Antoni in New York for Quentin Richardson, Malik Rose's expiring deal, and the #6 pick. The Heat would be sitting pretty with Jerryd Bayless, Dwyane Wade, and Michael Beasley with more money off the cap next season and Q's contract would be an expiring deal in 2009 as well.

Besides Marion and the #2, I really don't see much happening unless the Heat are willing to bet future picks on their progress. That's a bet I wouldn't make, especially since Wade has missed 31 games in each of the past two seasons. 

Be it dealing the #2 for a veteran or dealing Marion for a couple of players or a high pick, Pat Riley should be able to get his team headed in the right direction this off-season. Personally, I would deal Marion because even if you keep him, you still have to deal with re-signing him. Marion is going to be a free agent and I'm sure he's likely looking for big money which I wouldn't be willing to give him since he'll be 32 when the new contract kicks in.

UPDATE: Some rumors are swirling about Dwyane Wade being moved for the #1 pick. The possibility of walking out of the draft with Derrick Rose (#1), OJ Mayo (#6), and Michael Beasley (#2) might be too much for Pat Riley to ignore.  You hate to give up a talent like Dwyane Wade but after missing so many games the last two years, the Heat might be afraid that he won't ever be 100% healthy again.

4. Free Agency
What the Heat do in the draft alters what they do in free agency. If they deal for a veteran, they should probably look to use their MLE to bring in a talent, be it Carl Landry, Mickeal Pietrus, Jose Calderon, etc. If they go young, they should probably send out some flyers on younger guys like Chris Duhon, Delonte West, or Patrick O'Bryant while maintaining their cap space.

5. Summary
The Heat are at a crossroads this offseason and they'll likely have to choose which path they are going to take by draft day. If they are going with veterans, they'll need to deal the pick. If they want to go young, their only shot is to deal Shawn Marion. Sticking with their current team is risky because it means either re-signing Marion to a likely questionable contract or risking losing him for nothing. Then again, if things go perfectly, they could add Boozer, sign some talent with the MLE and then bring in some ring chasing veterans to fill out the roster, and then possibly deal Marion at the trade deadline (preferably for younger guys or someone who is signed to a more reasonable contract than Marion may be looking for).

Possible Final Roster
Starters: Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, Quentin Richardson, Michael Beasley, Mark Blount
Bench: Daequan Cook, Chris Duhon, Udonis Haslem, Alexander Johnson, Malik Rose, Dorrell Wright, Stephen Lasme, Chris Quinn

or

Starters: Delonte West, Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion, Carlos Boozer, Udonis Haslem
Bench: Daequan Cook, Matt Harpring, Mickeal Pietrus, Alexander Johnson, Damon Stoudamire, Penny Hardaway, Raef LaFrentz, Jamaal Magloire

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

As we wait for the Finals to begin, I thought I'd start my offseason team-by-team look (It feels great not to be focusing on the Celtics offseason) and we'll start with #1 pick, Chicago Bulls.

1. Sort Out The Roster 
The Chicago Bulls have one keeper on their team, Luol Deng, and he's a restricted free agent. As much as I liked Deng's game, I'm not sure if you can really afford making him a full max contract player. Paxson should try to get creative with Deng's contract (as he did with Hinrich's diminishing salary deal) and try to get Deng under contract for a more reasonable amount.

Ben Gordon, on the other hand, seems like a bit of a done deal. I don't think he ever really got a fair shot under Scott Skiles and the odds of him getting one under Doug Collins seems unlikely as well. Collins is a defensive-minded coach so there's little-to-no chance that Gordon would get out of his 6th man role. The Bulls will likely either have to try to workout a sign-and-trade for Gordon but if someone makes a big enough money offer to Gordon, Chicago will have to just cut ties and let him walk rather than match the offer and get stuck with a highly paid bench player whom the coach might not be a huge fan of.

The next issue, especially when it comes to Doug Collins, is Tyrus Thomas. Thomas could blossom into a Josh Smith-type defensive stalwart but the question is whether he wants it. And the last talented young big man Collins had to handle was Kwame Brown and we all saw how that panned out. You hate to essentially spend a #2 pick on a potential player and give up on him after just two years but the Bulls might be better off packaging Thomas along with either Larry Hughes or Drew Gooden's expiring contract and bring in a veteran big man. Unfortunately, the odds of the Bulls getting legit value for Thomas could be slim and we've already seen that Paxson is not going to give up any of his player if he doesn't think he's getting max value in return.

Kirk Hinrich's value is too low to move him right now while Larry Hughes's contract is probably too high to make him much of an asset. Andres Nocioni is a valuable player whom Coach Collins will likely love. Chris Duhon seems like he's ready to take the first L out of Chicago.  

So penciling in the guys who aren't on the block, you're looking at a roster of: Kirk Hinrich, Larry Hughes, Luol Deng, Andres Nocioni and Joakim Noah with Thabo Sefalosha and Aaron Gray as the key reserves. 

2. The Draft
I absolutely hate the idea of passing on Michael Beasley but the Bulls seemed to have made their decision by hiring Collins. Collins is a guy who often preaches the importance of point guard play and is focused on defense (which is Beasley's main weakness right now). You have to think that Collins would love a potential backcourt of Rose, Hinrich, and Deng and I suspect that, barring some insane offer from Miami to move down to #2, that is how the Bulls will proceed.

One of the best parts about having the #1 pick is that the Bulls will be able to spend more time working out players for the 2nd round pick. The second round isn't quite as rich as it was when high schoolers could still declare but it is still a good place to find key role players ala Ryan Gomes, Daniel Gibson, Carl Landry, etc. If the Bulls go with Gordon, they should be able to find a decent big man in the second round (Devon Hardin, Joey Dorsey, Richard Hendrix, etc.) or a backup to Deng (Gary Forbes, Bill Walker, Sonny Weems).

3. Trade Market
Here's where things get tricky. Outside of a sign-and-trade of Ben Gordon, I'm not sure what the Bulls can manage during the off-season. Ty Thomas isn't going to fetch near his potential, Larry Hughes's value rises exponentially next year when he's an expiring deal (even at mid-season, he'll be worth much more), and Drew Gooden's deal isn't exactly going to get people running with great offers. I wouldn't be too surprised if Paxson sets his sights for mid-season or offseason 2009 to really make his move.  Unless a team is still high on Hinrich, I'm not sure what deals the Bulls can make to improve their lot. Word is that Miami likes Hinrich but besides Shawn Marion, they have nothing to give up. Would they make a Marion for Hinrich/Nocioni type deal? I doubt it but then again I should know better than to bet against an NBA GM making a silly trade. Barring one of those types of deals, the Bulls might be better off letting Gooden play out his contract and having some more cap space for next year's offseason.

4. Free Agency
The Bulls probably won't be a player in terms of the big ticket items (again, unless someone is interested in Hinrich and/or Ty Thomas) and the MLE crop isn't all that appealing. They might simply look for some smaller signings ala Darrell Armstrong or Anthony Johnson (who could prove to be a good mentor for young Derrick Rose), backup 3's like Mo Evans/Quinton Ross or big guys like Brian Skinner or Craig Smith.

5. Summary
Jon Paxson's been burned by waiting to pull the trigger on deals but this year, he might not really have much choice. Unless he can swing some sign-and-trades or sell people on the potential of Ty Thomas/production of Kirk Hinrich, it could be an off-season of little change in Chi-town. Doug Collins is likely going to get a feel of his personnel in the first half of this season and then Paxson's job will begin in earnest to truly shape this team into a contender.

Possible Final Roster
Starters: Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, Ty Thomas, Jo Noah
Bench: Andres Nocioni, Larry Hughes, Thabo Sefalosha, Aaron Gray, Drew Gooden, Darrell Armstrong, Quinton Ross, Cedric Simmons.

Posted by SoulHonky at 11:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)