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Gauging the Prospects

With the opening weekend of the tournament gone, and most of the elite prospects gone with it, it's time to look at these young players to see if they should declare for the draft or stay in another year.

To start off, there's one thing that all guards should think about; the NCAA is moving the three point line back so they need to figure out how that will impact their success. If it is going to expose their shot, they might want to consider leaving while they still have the gaudy three point numbers. 

Also, the asterisk if for people like JJ Hickson, who has declared but hasn't signed an agent so he can still choose to go back to school. 

Michael Beasley: Declare
Beasley is the #1 pick and there's no reason for him to stay. He needs to be up with the pros to really improve his game.

Derrick Rose: Declare
Rose isn't going to learn how to run an offense in Memphis' system so staying in school isn't going to help him. If anything, Rose's year has shown that Memphis isn't the place for pure point guards (but is the perfect situation for 'tweeners).

Chris Douglas-Roberts: Declare
He's not going to get much better in Memphis's system and he might as well leave with Rose and Dorsey.


Blake Griffin: Stay 
Griffin could make a case for the third pick in the draft (or second, if Memphis gets the #2 pick) but he seems like the guy whose stock could fall in workouts. He needs to work on his jumper a little more to truly be a top prospect.  He should look at the word that Ryan Gomes did in his senior yet to make himself a more complete player and follow suit.

DeAndre Jordan: Declare*
Jordan should declare but not sign with an agent. With a couple of workouts, he should be able to figure out whether or not he's a top pick. Also, he needs to see what other young bigs are doing. If people like Hasheem Thabeet, Blake Griffin, and Mareese Speights stay in, Jordan might be better off testing the waters this season.

Jeryd Bayless: Declare
Bayless needs to learn how to play the point guard position but that's not going to happen at Arizona since they are bringing in #1 point guard recruit Brandon Jennings next year. Bayless's stock can't get any higher than it is right now.

Chase Budinger: Stay
Buddinger has basically shown that he isn't going to be a leading man in the NBA. What he really needs is a year in which he helps take the reins of his team and shows that he's a complete player. The extended three point line should benefit Budinger as he'll be able to take advantage of his pull-up jumper more. 

Eric Gordon: Declare*
Normally I'd say that anyone who is a lock for a top 10 pick should leave school outright but Gordon has struggled of late and his disappearing act in the NCAA's isn't going to help his stock any. Add in the fact that Ben Gordon has had such a rough season and NBA GM's might not look at Eric as kindly as they might have in the past. It also doesn't help that most of the lotto teams already have an undersized two-guard and probably aren't looking to add another one.  A couple of so-so workouts and Gordon could slide all the way to the late teens. He might want to hedge his bet in case it turns out he'd be better off using this offseason to work on his handle/PG skills and boost his stock.

Brook Lopez: Declare
His stock can't get any higher.

Robin Lopez: Stay
He needs to develop more and a year of being the man in the middle (sans his twin brother) should help him establish himself as his own man as opposed to just being The Other Lopez brother. He might also want to cut his hair because nobody's using a lotto pick on the next Anderson Varejao.

Darren Collison: Declare
Personally, I wouldn't risk another knee injury if I was Collison. I can't imagine he'll be able to do anything next year that would make him more than the mid-first round pick that he already is so it's probably better to leave now and get that guarenteed contract rather than risking another knee injury. 

Russell Westbrook: Declare*
Right now I think Westbrook is a lot of hype and needs some work to make it in the NBA. Then again, his stock is absurdly high right now and could likely decline next season when he's fighting prized freshman Jrue Holliday and Malcolm Lee for playing time. If Westbrook can get through the workouts and still maintain his lottery position, he should stay in the draft and learn on the job. If not, he might be better off staying for another season in Westwood.

Kevin Love: Declare
Love's weakness aren't anything that he can fix. Unless someone finds a way to make him quicker and taller, he is what he is. If he continues his nice tournament run, he should use that as his launching pad to the NBA.

OJ Mayo: Declare
Staying isn't out of the question for Mayo. USC is getting an elite SG Demar DeRozan next year so Mayo could take over the point guard spot and help lead the team. That could help him fix a lot of his tarnished reputation. On the other hand, he could become the second best guard on his own team. In the end, I don't think there's any way for Mayo to match the hype that preceded him and he's better off taking his game to the NBA and learning how to run an NBA squad.

Mareese Speights: Declare* 
Speights is a dark horse because he's under the radar right now but he has the size and talent to play himself into the #3 pick with some good workouts. Right now, a lot of the big man competition is questionable and Speights could take advantage of it. The biggest problem, of course, is work ethic. Billy Donovan all but called out Speights by name as being disappointing this season and not having the mentality of a winner. It's in Speights and the Gators' best interests to have him declare. If Mareese is as good as he thinks he is, he'll outplay the likes or Lopez, Jordan, and Hibbert and earn a spot at the top of the draft. If not, he'll realize he has a lot to work on and should come back with a renewed focus.

DeAndre Jordan: Declare*
DeAndre Jordan doesn't really know how to play basketball. The guy can't shoot, is a walking turnover, and got his stuff tossed back in his face multiple times by Kevin Love in their tournament game. Yet he's still being called a top 10 pick. How can he not take advantage of his potential and sell high? When's a big man developed out of Texas A&M? And if Jordan does develop as people think he could and become a Dwight Howard-type, he's much better off in the NBA rather than the NCAA's where big men getting into foul trouble off of ticky-tack calls happens.

Anthony Randolph: Stay
Randolph needs to establish himself more. If he comes out now, he'll likely fall into the mid-first round.  Unless he considers himself a fraud who will never blossom, he should stay in and become a player.

DJ Augustin: Declare 
Many experts are saying that Augustin is a sure-fire lotto pick and he reminds them of Jameer Nelson. DJ needs to come out before these experts realize that that doesn't exactly make sense. 

Hasheem Thabeet: Stay
He might want to consider testing the waters but he's all-raw potential and likely wont' be able to work his way past most of the big men who are already ranked about him.

Ty Lawson: Declare
It doesn't seem like the UNC faithful have been very faithful to him (questioning why he was out with an injury) and I think the extended three point line is going to hurt him more than other PG's.  

Tyler Hansbrough: Stay
He loves college and is a better college player than pro prospect.

Donte Green: Declare*
I just don't see Green getting better at Syracuse. He's going to be playing a zone and not working on his man defense. He's already standing around too much on offense and I don't see that changing at all. While the initial reports were that he was like Rashard Lewis, he seems more like Shawne Williams.

Darrell Arthur: Stay

Arthur missed his chance to skate by on his potential last year. He's going to need to show some actual production and improvement in order to get his name back into lotto consideration.

Brandon Rush: Declare 
Rush is someone else who shouldn't risk another injury and he's also a player that is probably better off landing on a contender than being expected to step in as a starter from day 1.



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