Can Danny?

15. Seattle Supersonics: Jeff Green could be a good complement to Kevin Durant but there were better players avaiable at #5, and personally, I'm not sold on Green. The better move would have been to trade down for Philly's three picks because the prospects at #12 were as good as #5 and this team needs as many players as possible. Most troubling, though, is the fact that GM Sam Presti subscribes to the Billy Knight School of You Can't Get Enough 6'9 Players.  The Sonics are looking at a long season next year and Sonics fans should fear that Presti will opt for Michael Beasley over Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo if the Sonics get the first pick.

14. Sacramento Kings: Spencer Hawes will eventually replace Brad Miller and the Kings will be looking at replacing Ron Artest or Mike Bibby when they pick at the top of the lottery next year. The Kings should have tried to use Bibby or Artest to move up in the draft.  They have to move one of them and the market for those two couldn't be any lower.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves: On the bright side, the teams that they could deal KG to all grabbed talented players in the draft so not getting the deal done before Draft Day might not be a disaster.  That being said, having to trade is a disaster and the cause of that disaster is the disaster they call a roster.  Corey Brewer is a solid pick but with Foye, McCants, and Brewer in the backcourt, I'm not sure who actually runs the offense.  Making a run at Ron Artest is just delaying the inevitable.  The Wolves need to trade KG. Until they do, you can't put them in last place.

12. Portland Trailblazers: Kevin Pritchard is quickly moving his name to the top of the GM rankings but the results won't come this year.  The team now has so much talent that it will be tough to settle on a rotation.  Josh McRoberts fell into the perfect situation as he was AAU teammates with Oden, who had nothing but praise for the fellow Dookie. Rudy Fernandez is a nice pick who will likely stay overseas for a couple of year while  Petteri Koponen and Taurean Green are solid point prospects.  The Blazers will likely be looking to move one of their PG's as they have Sergio Rodriguez and Jarrett Jack already on the roster and are supposedly looking to bring back Steve Blake.  Add in another lotto pick and with two expiring contracts in Steve Francis and Raef Lafrentz next offseason and it could be another busy Draft Day for the Blazers.  After that though, the team will likely be doing their best work in the playoffs.

11. Los Angeles Clippers: If Corey Maggette did steroids, he'd probably be Al Thornton.  While that might seem like an intriguing player, the problem is that coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. already dislikes Maggette and Thornton's hoops IQ is even worse.  Either he somehow learns to play the game over the summer or he'll probably be sitting next to Corey on the bench asking eachother why they are riding the pine behind Quinton Ross.  The Clippers addressed their point guard situation by adding Jared Jordan, who can run a team but isn't a great shooter and is a worse defender.  While there's nothing wrong with the players the Clippers took, they simply aren't the right for this coach and this team.

10. New Orleans Hornets: New Orleans needed a shooting guard and got Julian Wright, a tweener forward.  Wright struggled in workouts and one has to wonder if he will be able to handle the NBA.  The one strength he can rely on is his decision making, but the Hornets already have Chris Paul taking care of that.  They added a shooter in the second round but it's unlikely Adam Haluska does much but ride the pine, if he even makes the team. The Hornets need to address their shooting guard spot or they will find themselves right back in the lottery.

9. Los Angeles Lakers: I love the Javaris Crittenton pick.  He's a great point guard for the triangle and a top notch prospect.  The Kobe Conundrum, however, remains unsolved and I don't think this team is going to fair well with a disinterested Kobe.  Also not helping matter are Sun Yue and Marc Gasol, two players who I don't think will last in the NBA very long.

8. Memphis Grizzlies: No, this leap isn't based on the draft alone  The Grizz should enter the season with a healthy center and a coach that actually wants to be there.  Conley will be the motor that runs the impressive engine of Gasol, Mike Miller, and Rudy Gay.  The Grizz could make a couple more trades but even if they don't, this team should be good enough to regain their spot in the playoffs.

7. Golden State Warriors: I love the addition of Brandan Wright to the up-tempo Warriors and alongside Andis Biedrins in the paint.  Marco Belinelli should be a nice fit at the two spot as well but neither of these guys are going to be ready to contibute consistently in their first year so the Warriors should experience some growing pains but they still should be good enough to make the playoffs, as long as Baron stays healthy and Stephen Jackson stays relatively sane. 

6. Denver Nuggets: Denver had no picks and weren't able to solve any of their contract issues.  They are likely going to lose on of their key frontcourt players.  In the end, the Iverson trade was fun but it isn't going to help the Nuggets to the promised land.

5. Houston Rockets: When do you say enough is enough?  The team obviously isn't getting it done with T-Mac and Ming and adding Mike James and three second round talents isn't going to change that.  Also, the team has a whole at the PF spot with Chuck Hayes or second round pick Carl Landry being the top two candidates for the job.  Daryl Morey's first draft was a swing and a miss and he may be wondering if it's time to deal T-Mac during Draft Day 2008.

4. Utah Jazz: I don't care if Jerry Sloan hates rookies, Morris Almond should be the starting shooting guard next season.  And seeing as his competition right now is Gordon Giricek and Ronnie Brewer, it shouldn't be too hard.  Giricek is reportedly unpopular with his teammates while Brewer spent most of his rookie season in Jerry Sloan's doghouse.  Almond is a smart player and a good shooter, the two things the Jazz need from the 2 spot.  The key to the season, though, is Andrei Kirilenko or what they can get for him in a trade.

3. Dallas Mavericks: Glen Davis's low post scoring ability made more sense than Nick Fazekas, who is Dirk Nowitzki in cement shoes. They added to foreigners after that.  They made a play for the #6 pick but if they were trying to go after Yi Jianlian, I think they were lucky that the Bucks wouldn't bite.  The Mavs didn't improve much on draft day but they probably weren't expecting to anyway.

2. Phoenix Suns: The Suns draft day didn't make much sense.  Rudy Fernandez is a great shooting guard who might not come over this season.  Couldn't they have agree to take him and wait? The team also apparently shipped James Jones off in the Fernandez firesale so they could use a backup shooting guard.  Derrick Byars, Marcus Williams, and Gabe Pruitt all seem to make more sense than Alando Tucker.  Honestly, I would have taken a flyer on Josh McRoberts over Tucker. D.J. Strawberry is a guard who adds defense but  he's hardly the answer since he's might not even make the team.

1. San Antonio Spurs: Leave it to the Spurs to somehow snag two guys who were considered lottery picks at this time last year.  Tiago Splitter might not come over until next year but the Spurs can afford to wait.  He could be a nice addition to the Spurs frontcourt.  Marcus Williams has all the talent to be the heir apparent to Michael Finley's spot.  If he can get his head on straight, he'll be an absolute steal.  If not, he won't be any better than James White.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

For as good as this draft was, it didn't really shift the balance of power much, even at the bottom of divisions.  The Southeast, ilke the Atlantic and Central, didn't experience much of a shake-up after draft day.

1. Miami Heat: In my draft, I said that the Heat used the pick more on Dwayne Wade's future than their present.  That is basically what happened.  Daequan Cook is essentially the Gerald Green of this draft.  He's a raw, athletic, talented player who can shoot the lights out.  Cook has as much upside of most any player taken after #2 in the draft and could be a steal this late. 

2. Washington Wizards: The Dominic McGuire pick makes more sense than the Nick Young selection.  McGuire should fit in as a glue guy who can help the Wizards improve their defense. He can guard either forward spot or the shooting guard so he will be a great complement off the bench.  Nick Young, on the other hand, seems like a bad fit.  He was definitely the best prospect available but the Wizards don't need another shooter and being around Hibachi probably isn't going to help Nick's shaky shot selection. While he should be a useful player off the bench, Young needs to improve his defensive intensity if he ever wants to start alongside Gilbert and Caron Butler.

3. Orlando Magic: I don't like Nick Young in Washington, but he would have been a much better fit in Orlando.  Young, Rodney Stuckey, Marco Belinelli, Javaris Crittenton or even Jason Smith would have fit nicely on the Magic roster.  Instead, they have Darko Milicic, who four years in the league is still a huge question mark and is now looking like he good demand a fairly large contract.  I don't care what Chad Ford says, I'm not sure rolling the dice on Darko for big money is better than getting one of these aforementioned players on a rookie contract.

4. Atlanta Hawks: After all of the rumors, the Hawks did what everyone expected them to do.  They added the best player available and a much needed low post threat in Al Horford and grabbed a point guard at #11.  The big winner, of course, is Phoenix because the Hawks are still young and I can't see them getting too much better next year.  Still, it was a good draft for Billy Knight and he continues to build a talented team. Whether he'll be around in a couple of years when they start to come together is another question altogetherr.

5. Charlotte Bobcats: The Bobcats traded the #8 pick and turned down Sean May to the Nets for the #17 pick.  Instead of Brandan Wright and Javaris Crittenton, they stuck with May and added the underrated but not spectacular Jason Richardson.  They then reached for Jared Dudley with the #22 pick giving them a roster that currently doesn't have a legit shooter.  Matt Carroll is a free agent and Adam Morrison is terrible.  They need to make a run at Rashard Lewis or hope that Gerald Wallace re-signs and continues to improve his shot.  In the end, instead of improving a lot tomorrow, the Bobcats improved a little today and still will likely be lottery-bound.

Posted by SoulHonky at 02:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The toughest division in the East just got... more of the same.  Much like the Atlantic division, the Central squads all added players but didn't exactly fill needs. After draft night, not much has changed in the Middle America.  Going from worst to best, the division ranks:

5. Indiana Pacers: They didn't have a pick and didn't trade Jermaine O'Neal.  It's time to rebuild but I'm not sure anyone in the front office is willing to admit that yet.
 
4. Milwaukee Bucks: If Milwaukee is casting the villains of the next Bond movie, they're doing a great job: Yi, Charlie Villain, Bogut all look the part.  In terms of basketball, they are a pretty terrible mix since none of them can play defense.  Making matters worse is the fact that Yi Jianlian doesn't want to play in Milwaukee. Rolling the dice on Yi being good is one thing, rolling the dice on him even showing up is an absolute disaster. Yi doesn't fit and doesn't want to fit.  With Corey Brewer or Julian Wright on the board, the Jianlian selection was simply a mistake. Ramon Sessions at 56 might pan out but is hardly the answer at point guard.

3. Chicago Bulls: The Bulls add defense and youth to a team that needs a reliable post presence.  Joakim Noah was a solid pick because Ben Wallace isn't getting any younger and, perhaps more importantly, Noah was a player that the Grizzlies were intererested in.  Best case scenario, Noah is a trade asset that could bring Pau Gasol to Chicago.  Aaron Gray can score in the low post... in college.  He should make the team but might not ever get in.  If the rumors of  a Chris Duhon trade are true, it might have made more sense to grab Taurean Green or Zabian Dowdell than the short scoring guard JamesOn Curry.  And while it's still early in their careers, Ty Thomas and Jo Noah don't seem like the King's Ransom that people thought the Bulls were getting for Eddy Curry.

 2. Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavs didn't have any picks.

1. Detroit Pistons: Judging from their picks, the Pistons believe that Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell will be able to start filling in more for the Pistons aging frontcourt of Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess, and Antonio McDyess.  Johnson especially needs to pan out as a potential starter if the 'Stones playoff tour is going to continue without a hitch.  Rodney Stuckey could be the next Microwave and should be a solid backup guard.  Aaron Afflalo seems like a reach, especially over the likes of Marcus Williams or Derrick Byars, who seems like the perfect fit for the defensive-minded Bad Boys.  Sammy Mejia is a player with good size I'm not sure if he's a better choice than Zabian Dowdell, another defensive minded player who could have helped backup Chauncey Billips. 

The Bucks and Bulls had the best chances to make the right move to get them to the top of the division but neither team was able to pull anything off.  The Bulls still could make a big trade but the Bucks are looking at the prospect of being forced to trade their draft pick, ala Steve Francis demanding a trade from Vancouver.  The difference is that, in this case, the trade options are limited to a handful of teams which could hurt the chances of the Bucks getting equal value back.  With or without Yi, if the Bucks don't re-sign Mo Williams, they could find themselves sitting at the basement of the division.

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Atlantic Division:

While the Northwest division had the best drafts, it was the Atlantic division that made the most noise.  The division welcomes a headcase, a veteran, a veteran headcase, and three prospects that left a fan base shaking their heads. At the end of the day, though, I'm not sure if the balance of power really shifted all that much.  

1. New Jersey Nets: The healthy Nets are a better team than the Raptors so I'm going to keep him as the cream of the Atlantic crop.  Also, they didn't trade Richard Jefferson for Zach Randolph (a deal that now looks like a complete BS rumor seeing what Portland ended up dealing Zach for).  I thought Zach would have been a terrible fit for the Nets. They did, however, draft Sean Williams who, by all accounts, sounded like he was more of a headcase than a pothead. If Williams can clean his act up, he'll be a very nice defensive presence and should fit in as the trailer behind Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson.

2. Toronto Raptors: Didn't have a pick but I still think they are the #2 team in the division.

3. New York Knicks: Zach Randolph is a talented player but I don't see him fitting in at all.  He basically duplicates what Eddy Curry does with rebounding thrown in. His presence also could mean fewer minutes for David Lee, who is a better fit alongside Curry and is probably a better player overall.  This deal could work if Randolph would accept the 6th man role but who knows if that will happen. It's also unclear whether his attitude will be a distraction. The Knicks needed to add a consistent perimeter shooter and defense but ended up with neither. Draft pick Wilson Chandler has potential but is a project and won't help this year. In the end, I think this deal made for more headcase than headway and, as of now, I don't see the Knicks making the playoffs.

4. Boston Celtics: The Ray Allen trade definitely has some red flag but overall I am content with the deal.  Gabe Pruitt and Glen "Big Baby" Davis are nice additions but the Celtics still have to a lot left to prove.  If Al Jefferson continues on the pace from last year, the current C's team could battle for the second spot in the division but the team needs to solidify the point guard spot and improve defensively if they want to really make a run at the playoffs.  Like the Randolph trade, the Allen trade added talent but didn't answer any questions.  Danny Ainge's job is far from over as the Celtics still need to make a couple of moves to make this a truly successful offseason.

5. Philadelphia 76ers: Billy King wasn't willing to deal any players so he wasn't able to deal any picks. The Sixers might have taken a step back in the standings because they didn't match the Ray Allen and Zach Randolph deals but that might be to their benefit in the long run.  I love the Thaddeus Young pick and think, while he won't help out a ton this year, he will be a very good player in Philly.  While Young develops, Derrick Byars should be able to step right in and start alongside Andre Iguodala.  Byars could be an Aaron McKie type who will defend, do the little things, and be able to score when you need him to. Jason Smith is a nice complement to 'Dre, Iggy, and Sam Dalembert.  He's a high post big man who can knock down a jumper and will excel running the break with Miller. He probably isn't the answer at the starting four spot but should be a solid role player. I wouldn't rule out the Sixers being a surprise success but right now I think they are (and are better off) being the low man on the totem pole. While Billy King wasn't able to add a marquee veteran to his lineup, his team now has the potential to be a very good, and very entertainging, squad.

---

In the end, the Nets are the winners in the short term because they added what could be the missing piece to their puzzle.  The Knicks and Celtics made moves to improve but still need more help if they are to contend.  In three years though, the draft that might matter the most if the Sixers as they added young talent that could become an impressive core by decade's end.

Posted by SoulHonky at 07:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

My board for #32 would be: Glen Davis, Daequan Cook, Nick Fazekas, Petteri Koponen and Marcus Williams. I'd hesitate to take Koponen over guys iike Taurean Green or Gabe Pruitt but, in the end, I think I'd roll the dice on the young Fin.  The sleeper would be Kyrylo Fesenko but to me he's just a name and a very brief scouting report so I'd probably shy away from the risk.

And, of course, that list goes out the window if someone unexpectedly falls from the first round. General Managers often make the mistake of sticking with the guy they had pegged for their second round pick and pass on the more talented slider. 

 

Posted by SoulHonky at 10:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

So with the draft staring us right in the eyes, where do the Celtics stand?

Staying at #5, our options are looking like Jeff Green, Corey Brewer, and Yi Jianlian.  This would be the worst case scenario since none of those guys exactly get me all that fired up.  Brewer's defense is a plus but it's not like he's been locking down the greats of college basketball.  The only NBA draft pick he really defended this year was Derrick Byars, who had two solid games against Florida.  As for his offense, it has potential and is still very raw.  Right now, I'm not sure that he's all that much better of an NBA player than DeShawn Stevenson. Yi Jianlian is a complete unknown.  He seems more like Vlad Radmanvic or Brian Cook than Dirk or Pau. I woudn't bet against him but I'm also not willing to bet our draft pick that he's going to be the fifth best player in this draft.  Jeff Green seems like a poor man's Shane Battier.  While he's likely be an improvement over Ryan Gomes, I'm not sure how much of an improvement he's actually be.

Trading up for Horford is a possibility but I'd hate to give up a pick in next year's draft to do it.  I'd offer up a lot and maybe even agree to take back Brian Cardinal's crap contract but Horford, while the #3 prospect, isn't worth mortgaging the farm for. 

Trading down is the best move, especially since likely that one of our three options will still be around at #8.  If we move down to #12, I'm honestly more comfortable considering Javarris Crittenton, Thad Young, and Spencer Hawes as Green, Brewer, and Yi. If I was in charge, I'd be on the phone with Rod Higgins and Billy King as soon as Atlanta or Memphis selected Al Horford.

Then there are the much rumored deals.  Kevin Garnett is the prize but would cost us Al Jefferson.  I wouldn't be COMPLETELY opposed to that but if we make that trade, I also think we should go after a veteran PG.  If we could make a play for Sam Cassell and Corey Maggette (likely moving Rondo, Wally, and something to sweeten the deal), I'd be very interested in the Garnett deal and making a run at the Finals next year.  It just doesn't make sense to me to add a huge contract like KG and then have the fate of the team riding on a second year late first round point guard. 

Most other deals being floated around sound like nonsense although the Ray Allen deal is intriguing.  He's not a great fit but if all he costs is Wally, #5, and filler, he might be worth it.  At the very least, we would have a very nice trade asset at this next season's deadline along with Theo's expiring deal.  Ray's deal is one year longer than Wally's and if we could move Scal's contract, it really wouldn't affect our finances too too much.  The team would be in better standing talent-wise and trade-wise so I'd go for it. 

In the end, I'm afraid that we won't be making the huge moves that most people wanted or that our division rivals could pull off (The Nets might deal Richard Jefferson for Jermaine O'Neal and the Sixers have Andre Miller and three picks to offer up).  In the end, this year's draft will likely be one small step for the Celtics and not the giant leap that Celtics fans had been hoping for.

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

If there's one thing that this year's draft has more of than talent, it's general managers looking for veteran help. It's a mix that could open up the draft to a ton of trades. Then again, with no sure things after the top three or four, it's unclear how many teams will really be willing to deal a top notch talent for a pick. That being said, here's the second mock draft.

1. Portland Trailblazers: Greg Oden.
Oden is the obvious choice although Durant really fits the team more. Then again, do you really pass over Greg Oden because you have LaMarcus Aldridge and Zach Randolph? It's a close call but I still think you go with the franchise big man.

2. Seattle Supersonics: Kevin Durant.
It would be pure comedy if Durant went #1 because that means Oden lands in Seattle, the land of the first round big man. I can just see Saer Sene, Johan Petro, and Robert Swift sitting on a couch, shaking their heads as the pick is announced, saying together, "Man, now we're never going to play." Then Chris Wilcox wanders in, "Hey, what are you guys watching?" With Durant in Seattle, the Sonics should look to deal Ray Allen and begin rebuilding around Durant immediately. The team isn't going to compete next year so they would be better getting some young talent or picks for Allen.

 

3. Minnesota Timberwolves: Al Horford.
Kevin Garnett is heading to Phoenix but the headline thief is Amare Stoudamire, who is heading to the ATL. The Suns realize that while Amare is a sick talent, Marion is the guy that they can't replace. The Wolves get Josh Smith, #3, and the Hawks' 2008 first rounder and some expiring deals. McHale adds KG's replacement in Al Horford.

4. Portland Trailblazers (via Memphis Grizzlies): Mike Conley Jr.
Needing a point guard and a big body to team with Pau Gasol, the Grizzles look to Portland who would love to add Greg Oden's personal point guard. The Blazers have talent to deal and give the Grizzlies an offer they can't refuse: Zach Randolph, Jarrett Jack, Joel Pryzbilla, and a late 2nd round pick for #4, Hakim Warrick and Memphis' three worst contract (Brian Cardinal. Stromile Swift, and Damon Stoudamire). Could the Zach and Jack Show lead to headaches in Memphis? What does Jerry West care, he's out the door a few days after the draft. The Blazers add Conley to be the PG of the future.

5. Charlotte Bobcats (via Boston Celtics): Corey Brewer
KG? JO? Matrix? How about Primoz Brezec? Unable to make any other deals, the Celtics trade #5, #32, Telfair, and Allan Ray for #8, #22, and Brezec. The Bobcats move up in order draft Corey Brewer to boost their defense.

6. Philadelphia 76ers (via Milwaukee Bucks): Brandan Wright
The options for the Bucks are limited since two of their choices, Yi Jianlian and Joakim Noah refused to work out for them. GM Dave Babcock has already nixed Noah from the list although he still musing over taking Yi. Brandan Wright had a great workout but they already have Charlie Villenueva. In steps Billy King who offers his three first round picks to the Bucks, who gladly move down where they could get one of the small forwards who falls and possibly some bench depth. The 76ers add the power forward of the future, the talented but not ready for prime time Wright.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves: Joakim Noah
Kevin McHale might like Spencer Hawes better but the best way to reassure the fan base is to add the second half of the Florida frontcourt, who is also one of the more affable personalities in the draft. The Noah, Horford, Josh Smith trio should be a great young core to build around. Now if only one of the dozen combo guards could step up, the Wolves might actually be fun to watch next season.

8. Chicago Bulls (via Boston Celtics): Yi Jianlian
Trading down does nothing to make life easier for Ainge as his two choices, Jeff Green and Yi JIanlian are still there staring him in the face. Yi has the higher upside but Paul Pierce will likely flip if they take him. Green is his choice but he bluffs the Bulls into taking Brian Scalabrine for Chris Duhon and a swap of picks. The Bulls don't get the post presence they were looking for but add a player who could be a steal at #8.

9. Boston Celtics (via Chicago Bulls): Jeff Green
Green will probably be ready to help from Day 1 which should appease a increasingly cranky Paul Pierce. Personally, I'm not a huge believer in Green and wouldn't be happy with this pick but The Truth should be, whie not pleased, appeased by the Duhon, Brezec, and Green additions (with one more pick coming up later in the first round).

10. Sacramento Kings: Spencer Hawes
The rumor mill hasn't had a lot to say about Mike Bibby or Ron Artest, but I do think there's a good chance that one or both of them could be moved on Thursday. One guy who they probably won't be able to move is Brad Miller but that might not be so bad as he can mentor the young Hawes, who'll probably replace him in the starting lineup after this next season. A Hawes/Martin inside/outside combo isn't too shabby.

11. Atlanta Hawks: Acie Law
Javarris Crittenton is the better talent but Acie Law is ready to play in the NBA tomorrow and that is what Billy Knight could be looking for. Law should be able to step into the starting spot and hold it down alongside Joe Johnson, Marvin & Shelden Williams and Amare Stoudamire.

12. Miwaukee Bucks (via Philadelphia 76ers): Julian Wright
Wright might have struggled during the workouts but he is still the perfect fit for the Bucks. A small forward who can facilitate the offense and help out on defense, he is the perfect fit, if not the most sure-fire prospect.

13. New Orleans Hornets: Nick Young
Fool me once, shame on J.R. Smith. Fool me twice, and Byron Scott will have to sit down Jeff Bower for a talk. Derrick Byars missed his workout for the Hornets which might have solidified Young as the choice for the Hornets. His attitude is questionable but his talent seems to be unmistakable. The key, of course, is defense. If Young commits to it, he'll be fine. If not, he'll be committed to Scott's doghouse ala J.R. Smith before him.

14. Los Angeles Clippers: Javarris Crittenton
Crittenton will backup the aging alien Sam Cassell and if Shaun Livingston comes back, Crittenton could still handle the shooting guard spot, giving the Clippers great size in the backcourt. Granted, all of this is moot if Elton Brand opts out and leaves next year, but for now, this is a good choice with great upside.
 
15. Detroit Pistons: Al Thornton
If Thornton can handle the power forward, he could be the heir apparent to Rasheed Wallace's power forward position. The Pistons basically need youth and every position and while most people have Rodney Stuckey penned in as the pick here, Thornton is simply a better prospect. He might not be the brightest bulb so there is a chance that, although already 23, he will need a year to figure out the NBA game.

16. Washington Wizards: Thaddeus Young
Jason Smith is an interesting choice but the Wizards already have Oleksiy Pecherov, last year's #1 pick, coming overseas this year and they are expected to re-sign Aundray Blatche. Thaddeus Young is the best player available and, looking long term, might be a solid replacement for Antawn Jamison and a complement to Blatche. Unless Young bombed his workout in Washington, he should go here and the Wizards will have gotten themselves the steal of the draft.

17. Charlotte Bobcats (via New Jersey Nets): Jason Smith
The Nets like Sean May and the Bobcats seem somewhat fed up with his constant feeding of himself. May hasn't kept the weight off and has had two injury prone years. The injury prone part makes him a perfect fit in New Jersey, who ships the #17 for May. The Bobcats immediately replace May with the athletic Smith, who could turn out to be a great person to pair with Emeka Okafor (and Gerald Wallace, should he re-sign) .

18. Golden State Warriors: Josh McRoberts
The Warriors might be able to move up but they're likely going to have to give up more than they want to. The Warriors decide to opt for McRoberts, who could be the perfect fit for their running offense. A Biedrins/McRoberts frontcourt could be interesting in the future.

19. Los Angeles Lakers: Rodney Stuckey
If Kobe is gone, Stuckey gives the Lakers a scorer. If Kobe stay, Stuckey is someone who can help shoulder the scoring load and also should be solid enough to handle the point guard spot in the triangle alongside Kobe (who's going to be handling the ball the whole time anyway). A Stuckey/Kobe combo should keep the Staples Center scorekeepers busy.

20. Miami Heat: Gabe Pruitt
The Heat are desperate for help at the point guard and Pruitt's defense and shooting ability should get him on the floor early and often in his rookie season. Questions about his ability to run the point might not have to be answered as Dwyane Wade will run the show more often than not.

21. Milwaukee Bucks (via 76ers): Sean Williams
The Bucks gambled on Ruben Patterson and it paid off. Ruben had a great year for the Bucks last season and seemed like a solid citizen. Larry Harris will push his luck and bring in the problematic pothead Williams to help shore up the defense.

22. Boston Celtics (via Bobcats): Glen Davis
"Big Baby" is a true power forward and the kind of player who could be an absolute steal or an absolute Tractor Traylor-type bust. With the second pick, the Celtics can afford to take a risk on Davis. Tiago Splitter is a consideration, as are some of the guards, but the C's need size and they need it now, so Davis is the choice. It also helps that Davis has a very likable personality which should help if things get rough again this season.

23. New York Knicks: Daequan Cook
Wilson Chandler is rumored to have a promise but Cook would be the real prize. Isiah Thomas said he was looking for a shooter and that is Cook's specialty. Cook's potential is as high as most people who went in the lottery so this could be another David Lee level gem for Zeke.

24. Phoenix Suns: Nick Fazekas
The Suns get a shooting big man who can work alongside Garnett and Diaw. He isn't someone who is going to bang with the bigger centers or power forwards but the Suns add his skill and can get a banger with their later pick.

25. Utah Jazz: Derrick Byars
Byars could start from day one as he has the defensive presence and the attitude that the Jazz love. His shot is sporadic but he is good enough and should excel in knocking down Carlos Boozer or Deron Williams' kickouts.

26. Houston Rockets: Marco Belinelli
The run on power forwards really killed the Rockets who were expecting at least one of the middle level big men to fall their way. Tiago Splitter is an option but he can't be signed until 2008. Rudy Fernandez might be the best player available but he might sign with a team overseas and not be in the NBA next year. The Rockets settle for Belinelli, who would give the Rox a shooter off the bench and could fit into the Drazen Petrovic role in Rick Adelman's offense.

27. Detroit Pistons: Taurean Green
The Pistons need a backup point guard and Green is a good defender and has experience running an offense filled with talented yet varied players.

28. San Antonio Spurs: Rudy Fernandez
The Spurs need a big man like Spliiter but they take Fernandez when he falls this far. They can afford to wait for him but if he knows he's coming to the World Champions, Fernandez might be forego the foreign contract and come to America.
 
29. Phoenix Suns: Tiago Splitter
The Suns need a big man to play some defense which is what Splitter does. They also don't need anymore contract this year which Splitter won't be. Phoenix gladly waits a year for Splitter to come over.

30. Milwaukee Bucks (via 76ers): Petteri Koponen
The Bucks need a PG. Koponen could be the best of the bunch although he likely won't be ready to help too much next season. Still, none of the other point guards match his potential so he makes the most sense at this point in the draft.

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

While many teams are tight-lipped about their workouts and don't let much info out, the Wizards and Timberwolves do a great job for their fans by delivering little workout videos for the draftniks amongst us. It's not much but even the slightest glimpses of the workouts or unknown commodities like Marco Belinelli are interesting to check out. The Wolves Draft Center has the best presentation, showing just a little less footage but being edited very well (as opposed to the local news style of the Wizards). The Bucks also have some decent video while the Heats little-clips aren't all that impressive. The Suns have some video but for some of their "workout videos", all they have is an unedited interview with one of the prospects.

The Knicks page on perimeter players is pretty interesting. They claimed that Jeff Green should be the #3 pick, ranked their top 10 perimeter players and then added one person "OF POSSIBLE KNICKS INTEREST". That, of course, was Wilson Chandler, the SF from DePaul who supposedly has a promise from Isiah Thomas.

Orlando doesn't have a first round pick but still stuck a streaming ad on their page which makes them the most annoying. The Nuggets front page overlooks the draft in favor of Allen Iverson's jersey sales while the Pacers are hyping up the Indy WNBA team, probably hoping that people will overlook that Atlanta will be drafting a very talented player with the pick the Pacers dealt for Al Harrington.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Oden and Durant won't fall to #5. Al Horford is a no-brainer if he falls there and we've already addressed The Brandan Wright Situation. Most likely, this foursome will be off the board when it comes time for the Celtics to make there selection, so let's look at the top prospects from whom we'll be choosing.

Mike Conley Jr.: As good as Rajon Rondo is, Mike Conley Jr. is much better. The one edge Rondo has is that he is more tuned in on defense but that's not to say Conley is a slouch. Conley is the epitome of a pure point guard and should join TJ Ford and Chris Paul as one of the top little men in the NBA. Some people will bring up the fact that he is only 6'1 but talent and athleticism overcomes lack of height so that should be a problem. What could be more of an issue is Conley Jr's shot. While not nearly as bad as Rondo's, Conley doesn't have three point range and, while he seems to knock them down in crunch time, doesn't have the most reliable medium range shot either.
The Fit: Conley's questionable shot shouldn't be a huge issue for most teams but it is an issue for the Celtics because it's unlikely that the team could really play Rondo and Conley on the court together. A point guard like Javaris Crittenton has the size and shot to complement Rajon but Conley would be more of a replacement.
The Decision: Conley is a very unlikely choice for the Celtics. The draft can offer similarly ranked prospects that fill a need more. The final nail in the coffin is the fact that next year's draft could be a point guard bonanza so there's no need to force a pick for Mike Jr.

Spencer Hawes : A man of a million moves, Hawes could be the most gifted offensive big man in the draft. Whether he can hang on defense is another question. Hawes isn't a sloth but he's isn't shutting anyone down either.
The Fit: The Celtics need a big man and Spencer could operate on the high post while Jefferson mans the paint but the lack of defense is a bit problematic.
The Decision: Hawes could be a very good #3 star, perhaps like Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but the Celtics might be better adding a defensive stalwart or a more athletic power forward instead.

Jeff Green: Green probably has the highest bust potential of any of the players on this list. It's not that he has one weakness as much as it is that he doesn't have one strength. He's a good athlete but might not be able to defend quicker small forwards. He can score in the post but isn't a legit post threat. He can play on the perimeter but his shot isn't consistent. He seems like a suburban man's Shane Battier to me.
The Fit: While Green might have the most bust potential, he might also be the guy that would feel most comfortable in the Celtics system, since the PF often finds himself standing at the top of the perimeter, setting up the offense. If he can handle the PF, he wouldn't be a terrible person to put alongside Jefferson but as long as Rondo is the point guard, the C's will most likely need someone with an outside shot at the 3.
The Decision: Ainge could go for Green and he wouldn't be a bad pick. At the same time, I don't see him being a player that makes us any better.

Yi Jianlian: My reaction to Yi Jianlian is somewhat similar to seeing someone yelling in Chinese while you walk down the street. You have no idea what they are saying, you don't know if they are excited or mad, you might want to be more interested, but all told would rather prefer to just pass by and forget about them. Talent-wise, Yi seems like he's an Asian Andrea Bargnani. The one difference might be that Bargnani influenced the game while Yi sounds like he lets the game comes to him.
The Fit: If you want a guy who could complement Al Jefferson on the offensive end, this is it. He's got the jumpers, hook shots, decent range, you name it. He is more of a face up big man who can put the ball on the floor. Who knows what could happen once Clifford Ray started working with him. Unfortunately for Yi, this isn't football and you have to play both ways. His defense is a problem. He doesn't have the size or strength to handle big men and lacks the quickness to really stay with SF's. He might be a nice weakside defender. Golden St. or Phoenix might be the best fits for him as he might be better off in a running offense (complemented by a Marion or Matt Barnes who can take the harder defensive assignment).
The Decision: Who knows? Right now, I'd bet that his ceiling is more Rashard Lewis than Dirk Nowitzki but he also might just be Vladimir Radmanovic. Of the players available at #5, he is the only one that I'd say has superstar potential (maybe an argument could be made for Conley Jr.) but he could be spectacularly mediocre. While his offensive arsenal is impressive, it is no guarantee that he is able to be as effective in the NBA. He's also probably the last guy Paul Pierce wants to see announced because Yi will likely take at least a year to get used to the NBA. All things considered, on the topic of Yi, I vote Nay.

Joakim Noah: Hyper, a winner, more talented overall than some people give him credit for, Noah is probably the safest bet in the eight players mentioned here. He will have a solid NBA career. Now, whether that career is Marcus Camby or Anderson Varejao is anyone's guess.
The Fit: Defensively, he's the perfect fit alongside Jefferson except that he might not be able to handle the bigger stronger centers/PF. He'd be a terrific help defender though. His offense is a mess to look at but is somehow effective. He has a good handle for a PF/C and his shot, is as ugly as Acie Earl's (or even Acie Earl himself) yet it still seems to go in.
The Decision: You can't go wrong with Joakim Noah but you could find a lot more right than him. He's likely good but not great, a solid player that nobody will ever say should NEVER have gone over someone better but won't be as good as a few players who are drafted after him. He's a specialist but the C's need more than that.

Julian Wright: Julian Wright is basically Jeff Green but better at everything (except shooting). He can defend, he's smart, he's athletic. The one problem is that he doesn't really seem all that much better than Jeff Green. Wright has all of the tools but never seems to really put them all together. The best comparison seems to be Boris Diaw of 2006. Of course, the problem with Boris Diaw 2006 and Boris Diaw 2005 wasn't Boris Diaw but rather the team he was on and how he was used. Wright might also have to be a PF/C type to get the most out of his talents.
The Fit: Wright could be an interesting fit next to Jefferson, especially if the C's groom him as a poor man's Andrei Kirilenko-type. The problem, again, is his shot. If he could improve his perimeter game, he'd be the perfect fit.
The Decision: While not thrilled about his perimeter game, I think Wright could be the best choice if we stay at #5. He may never be a superstar but he should be a nice fit with Pierce and Jefferson.

Corey Brewer: Brewer is a lock-down defender with a knack for making plays on offense. I wouldn't go so far to call him an accomplished offensive player but he can more than hold his own there. He could be a rich man's Stacey Augmon. Still, there's just something that bugs me about him. I'm not going to knock him but his body control is fluid and reminds me of the herky jerky DeShawn Stevenson.
The Fit: The C's need defense and Brewer would likely start at shooting guard if drafted. While he can't create his own shot, all Gerald Green ever did was stand around the 3 point line, and that is basically the only way Brewer can hit them so it works perfectly.
The Decision: As much as I like Thaddeus Young, I think the choice at 5 comes down to Julian Wright or Corey Brewer, and I think Brewer's ability to guard shooting guards makes him the better fit. While the shooting ability of a Rondo/Brewer backcourt might be questionable, the defense, aggresiveness, and attitude would be close to perfect.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

1. Portland Trailblazers: Greg Oden.
Obviously.

2. Seattle Supersonics: Kevin Durant.
His defense and playmaking skills weren't on display in college so there are still some question marks about just how great he will be but still, he is the obvious choice.

3. Sacramento Kings via Atlanta Hawks: Al Horford.
The biggest issue facing Hawks fans isn't just that Billy Knight is their GM, it's that Billy Knight is their GM and he needs the team to win immeidately to keep his job. Unfortunately for Billy, most impact players are going to cost more than he can offer. Josh Smith is a big talent and a bigger headcase. Marvin Williams, Shelden Williams, Josh Childress? Limited trade value if any. In the end, the only deal he might be able to pull off is the #3, Zaza Pachulia, and the expiring contracts of Ty Lue and Lo Wright for Mike Bibby and the #10 pick. With the pick, the Kings select Al Horford to give them the quality PF that they've been lacking since they dealt Chris Webber.

4. Philadelphia 76ers via Memphis Grizzlies: Brandan Wright
Heart-broken over missing out on Horford and unwilling to lower their demands for Pau Gasol, the Grizzlies decide not to reach for Mike Conley and instead move Brian Cardinal's deal and the #4 for three expiring deals (Kevin Ollie, Shavlik Randolph, Bobby Jones) and three picks (#12, #24, and #30 picks). The 76ers add the quality PF that they've been lacking since even before they dealt for Chris Webber.

5. Charlotte Bobcats via Boston Celtics: Corey Brewer
Heart-broken over missing out on Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, the Celtics deal the pick, along with Brian Scalabrine and the #32 pick, to Charlotte for the #8, #22, and Primoz Brezec. The Bobcats add defensive help in Brewer, who should be able to complement Matt Carroll and help new coach Sam Vincent from ever having to play Adam Morrison.

6. Milwaukee Bucks: Julian Wright
Heart-broken over missing out on Corey Brewer and Al Horford, the Bucks (who plan on breaking the Pistons' heart by signing free agent point guard Chauncey Billups) select Julian Wright so they won't have to break Charlie Villenueva's heart by telling him that he has to start playing defense.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves: Spencer Hawes
After McHale botches the KG trade, Hawes will remind Minnesota fans of Christian Laettner, a talented-yet-not-great white guy leading an expansion team.

8. Boston Celtics: Thaddeus Young
Doc probably wants his son's former teammate Jeff Green. Pierce probably wants them to trade the pick for veteran talent. Ainge probably wants Yi or Al Thornton. But I'd going with the athletic, intelligent, talented 18 year old.

9. Golden State Warriors: Yi Jianlian via Chicago Bulls
KOBE FALLOUT! The principals in the deal are: the Bulls get Kobe, the Lakers get Ben Gordon, Jason Richardson, Ty Thomas, and the Warriors (who need to dump salary to re-sign Biedrins and Ellis) deal Richardson and their later pick for Kwame Brown's expiring contract and the #9 pick. They add Jianlian who could be a great complement to Andris Biedrins in the frontcourt.

10. Atlanta Hawks via Sacramento Kings: Joakim Noah
With Mike Bibby in Hotlanta, starting center is now the greatest need for the Hawks and they boost their defense by adding Noah.

11. Atlanta Hawks: Javaris Crittenton
Billy Knight passed over Chris Duhon in favor of Royal Ivey and I think the same thinking comes into play here. Conley is a short point guard who can't shoot that well. Crittenton is a tall point guard who can score and could become a great complement to Joe Johnson. He's a project but the Hawks can afford that with Bibby holding down the fort. And he went to Georgia Tech which could convince a couple of people to actually attend a Hawks game this year. All things aside from talent considered, it makes sense.

12. Memphis Grizzlies: Mike Conley Jr.
Billy Knight taketh away, Billy Knight giveth. The Grizz couldn't move up to get Horford but Knight lets Mike Conley Jr. fall into their laps. If Marc Iavaroni wants to run the Suns-style offense in Memphis, he needs a top point guard which Conley could be.

13. New Orleans Hornets: Derrick Byars
The Hornets reach on Byars because of his defense, attitude, and readiness to play from Day 1. The team needs someone to help defend swingmen and Jeff Green might struggle to stay with quick small forwards, let alone shooting guards. Nick Young has talent but is very similar to J.R. Smith and might just end up in Byron Scott's doghouse so why invite the headache?

14. Los Angeles Clippers: Jeff Green
Mike Dunleavy Sr. gets a player with talent, athleticism, and a high hoops IQ. He's the best player available but that's not going to get the Clippers into the playoffs.

15. Detroit Pistons: Acie Law IV
While some will see this as a sign that the Pistons might not retain Chauncey Billups, the move is actually made because they are keeping him. If Detroit is going to invest long term, big money in Chauncey, they better find someone to spell him so he doesn't wear down midway through his new contract.

16. Washington Wizards: Tiago Splitter
The Wizards need size and defense and Splitter could become Arenas's Anderson Varejao. The froncourt of Splitter, Etan Thomas, Oleksiy Pecherov, and Darius Songaila is nicknamed the U.N., although the Wizards hope it's because of the mixed nationalities and not because they can't really stop anyone from mounting an attack.

17. New Jersey Nets: Al Thornton
Ainge cringes when a guy he loved falls to the Nets. Thornton could be a great pick as long as Kidd stays around. Kidd could make the 23 year old rookie look as good as he did Kenyon Martin. But if Kidd leaves, Thornton will end up looking absolutely lost, almost like a muscular Gerald Green.

18. Los Angeles Lakers via Golden State: Josh McRoberts
The Lakers have a couple of picks in a row so they roll the dice and add a talented yet underachieving PF alongside Bynum.

19. Los Angeles Lakers: Nick Young
The Lakers grab the best player available and placate the L.A. fans by grabbing a Trojan. Sportswriters across America search for the cleanest way of making a Trojan/Getting Fucked By Kobe joke.

20. Miami Heat: Petteri Koponen
The Heat realize that they need help at point guard but also realize that nobody at this juncture of the draft is going to be able to really step in and help immediately. They start investing in Dwyane Wade's future and grab the talented Finnish lead guard.

21. Memphis Grizzlies: Sean Williams
It's a roll of the dice but the Grizzlies wanted a big body to team with Pau Gasol and Sean Williams could be the perfect fit. A defensive monster, personal issues are why Williams is going to sink in the draft. The Grizzlies have a cautionary tale in Stromile Swift sitting on their bench and a former Jailblazer who could try to help Williams reform, or at least teach him how to balance smoking pot with a solid NBA career.

22. Boston Celtics: Jason Smith
A superb athlete, Smith could benefit greatly from working with Clifford Ray (and trying to guard Al Jefferson everyday in practice). A wild card, he could pan out to be a very nice complement to Perk and Big Al or he could live down to the inevitable Michael Smith comparisons.

23. New York Knicks: Daequan Cook
Cook has the most upside and the Knicks roster is so chock full of contracts that its unlikely anybody drafted this late would break the lineup in their first year anyway. Stuckey is an option but the last thing the Knicks need is an undersized, scoring minded 2 guard. The Knicks supposedly have a promise out to Wilson Chandler but Cook is probably a better guy to roll the dice on.

24. Phoenix Suns: Marco Belinelli
Belinelli is a young combo guard who could be a perfect complement to Leandro Barbosa in a few years.

25. Utah Jazz: Rodney Stuckey
Deron Williams has enough size to potentially defend shooting guards so he and Stuckey could work together perfectly. If Ronnie Brewer can emerge as a defensive stopper at the 3, the Jazz could have one hell of a backcourt for the future.

26. Houston Rockets: Glen "Big Baby" Davis
When trading Juwan Howard leaves a void at the power forward spot, you know you're hurting at the position. Davis could be the next Robert Traylor but he is worth the risk this late in the draft.

27. Detroit Pistons: Rudy Fernandez
International players haven't exactly panned out for the Pistons but Fernandez will help add scoring off the bench.

28. San Antonio Spurs: Morris Almond
The Spurs usually grab some foreign guy who will spend the next three years overseas but the team could use some depth next season, especially at the swingspots. Morris Almond seems like a good replacement for the aging Brent Barry.

29. Phoenix Suns: Kyrylo Fesenko
The Suns either sell this pick or get someone who won't come overseas for a few years. They go with the latter and get the Chad Ford special, a big man nobody really knows anything about.

30. Memphis Grizzlies: Marcus Williams
After scoring help at the point and in the paint with their first two picks, the Grizzlies take a flyer on Marcus Williams who was supposed to be a lotto pick before he had a disappointing college season.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Brandan Wright is widely considered to be the third or fourth best talent in this draft yet he might be available at the Celtics #5 pick. He has All-Star potential and could be a franchise big man. That being said, he also doesn't seem to have the aggressive attitude you would want from a player of his caliber and he seems to coast through games. In the end, he could be the next great big man (especially under the tutelage of Clifford Ray) or he could be Drew Gooden (or worse, Donyell Marshall without much range on his shot). So if he falls in our laps, do we take him and consider ourselves lucky to grab a rare talent or do we look to move him?

Granted, moving him is easier said than done. The most likely trade partners are the 76ers, Atlanta (Billy Knight is a huge fan) and Charlotte (they are looking for post scoring and the 'Cats can't get enough of UNC grads) but finding the right deal might be hard to pull off.

The first option is just to deal the #5 for multiple picks. The Bobcats could offer #8 and #22. The Sixers have #12, #21, #30. The two problems here are that you are adding nothing but youth (which isn't going to thrill Paul Pierce) and none of the other players in the draft are more of a sure thing than Wright. In the end, you are dealing a top ranked question mark for lower ranked question marks. On the bright side, the law of averages is on your side and the odds of you picking a winner will be a bit better if you have more chances. These deals are fine, especially if the C's brass isn't sold on Wright, but if you think he's the real deal, you'd probably want something more.

"More" usually means players than can help out immediately but once you start adding them into the mix, the luxury tax comes into play. Unless the Celtics can dump Wally Szczerbiak, they won't be able to take on any players who become free agents after next season. Guys like Gerald Wallace or Josh Smith might be interesting targets but we would never be able to re-sign them and stay under the luxury tax. Marvin Williams and Raymond Felton would work but I doubt their teams are willing to deal them quite yet while I sincerely hope the Celtics wouldn't be interested in Shelden Williams or Adam Morrison.
The obvious reply is "Well, just add Wally to the deal for expiring deals/cap space." Unfortunately, if you add Wally, you are going to have to face diminished returns. The Bobcats aren't going to give us the #8 and Gerald Wallace AND take on our worst contract. If the Hawks agree to that sort of deal (they have Ty Lue and Lo Wright's expiring deals), then you really have to start to wonder just how much of a headcase Josh Smith is if they are giving him away like that. Odds are that adding Wally means you are taking back a worse player, like Sean May or Josh Childress. This is essentially what we did last year and I can't say that I'm thrilled with the prospect of hisory repeating itself. The Bulls might throw their hat into the ring to get Yi Jianlian but would they offer more than the #9 and Thabo Sefalosha? But is Thabo really enough to give up Wright?
One deal that could be a possibility is Wally and #5 for Mike Bibby and #10. The Celtics improve upon Wally and drop five spots where they could still get a very good prospect. If Wright or Horford don't fall to #5, I would consider this deal but the idea of giving up a shot at Wright (and likely ending up with Ainge's fave Al Thornton) for the swap of declining players isn't thrilling. Also, I'm not sure what interest the Kings would have in Wally since they already have Kevin Martin and Ron Artest at the swing spots. In the end, some deals is going to have to come out of nowhere to really offer the Celtics a legit return for the potential of Brandan Wright. So while my first choice would be to work a deal with Wright but if the best we're getting is #8 and #22 or Josh Childress and #11, the Celtics might have to roll the dice on Brandan's potential.

Posted by SoulHonky at 11:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

After Chad Ford did a solid job predicting last year's NBA draft, I said I would leave him alone a bit. But a year has passed and this blurb from his latest chat has ruined any and all goodwill that he had going.

Jason (Framingham, MA): Hey, remember that 7'4" guy from like 5 years back that didn't have any real college experience? He just hired a trainer and an agent and hoped he would get drafted. Whatever happened to that guy?

Chad Ford: (12:47 PM ET ) You mean Pavel Podkolzine? The guy NBA teams went crazy over in a private workout in Chicago ... when you're 7-foot-4 and can tie your own shoe laces, NBA guys love that. The Jazz drafted him in the first round, the Mavs traded for him and then he had a series of surgeries to correct a pituitary gland problem he had. It kept him out of playing basketball for too long and he eventually went back to Russia. Pavel's a great example of a guy who had all the physical tools, but zero experience playing competitive basketball ... those guys don't pan out too often.

What Ford failed to mentioned was that nobody, and I mean NOBODY, was a bigger fan of Pavel than Chad Ford himself. For him to even try to get on a high horse about Pavel, or any international player, is simply ridiculous. He had Pavel ranked ahead of Dwyane Wade in 2003. When Andy Katz and he did a mock draft, Katz had Chris Bosh landing in Miami. Ford's response:

My head says Bosh could be a real star in a year or two. But my heart says Podkolzine here. Riley and company were blown away by his workout. The Heat will have him in late this week to test his knowledge of the game, ability to read game tape and his general intelligence. If he passes the test, I just don't know how the Heat could pass on the kid.

He was stunned when Pavel dropped out of the draft and in 2004 labeled him "the steal of the draft". Before the draft he wrote:

Emeka Okafor may be more battle tested. Dwight Howard is certainly more athletic and skilled at the same age. But there is no one in the draft with a bigger upside than Pavel. At 7-foot-5 and 300 pounds (his measurements in Treviso), Pavel has the potential to dominate physically in the league some day. He is huge, strong, fairly athletic for a player his size and bursting with energy.

And it's not like Pavel was the only guy that Chad Ford fell in love with. Ford was gaga over Martynas Andriuskevicius for years, routinely called him a top 5 pick, and, after Andriuskevicius dropped out of the 2004 draft, Ford stated:

Instead, look for Andriuskevicius, if he continues to develop, to challenge Nemanja Aleksandrov for the No. 1 pick in the draft next year.

Good call. Andriuskevicius was a second round pick and Aleksandrov's draft hopes are now described (by noneother than Chad Ford) as "Second round to undrafted" And let's not forget Maciej Lampe. After the draft, Ford complimented the Knicks, stating:

But landing the other guy you thought about taking at No. 9, Maciej Lampe, was a huge draft steal. I've seen Lampe play enough to know that his slide wasn't warranted. Lots of teams dropped the ball on him. If he can work out his contract issues with Real Madrid, he'll make Knicks fans happy.

As for the Heat's pick in that draft?

It's tough to criticize Pat Riley for passing on Lampe when 24 other teams did the same thing.

Actually, it's tough to criticize Pat Riley because he draft Dwyane Wade.

I don't mind Chad Ford hyping guys to obscene levels (like giving the Mavs an A for their draft in 2002 for draftin Mladen Sekularac, whom "The Mavs will leave him in Yugoslavia for a year, but you'll hear his name again.") but to then act like he never did this is simply ridiculous. Thankfully, this year's draft doesn't have many top rated foreigners but I'm sure that Ford will find someone to hype up into the first round.

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

SUPERTRADE! What would a crazy draft day be without a four team, fourteen player (and two draft picks) trade? You might say that reaks of desperation but we are talking about Minnesota, Indiana, Sacramento, and Zach Randolph.

7. Sacramento via Minnesota selects Julian Wright:
The Superdeal breaks down as this:
Indiana gets: Mike Bibby, Marko Jaric, Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Mark Blount.
Minnesota gets: Troy Murphy, Ron Artest, and Jamaal Tinsley
Portland gets: Sacramento's #10, Ricky Davis (expiring deal) and Trenton Hassell. Sacramento gets: Minny's #7, Zach Randolph, Marquis Daniels, Jeff Foster, Dan Dickau, and Orien Greene.

Indiana gets rid of a point guard (and contract) they didn't want and two long term deals that weren't helping much (Murphy and Daniels) for Mike Bibby, a solid enough center, and a cheaper backup PF option in 'Reef. Minnesota dumps their picks to add talent, albeit talent with questionable attitudes. That being said, selling their soul is the only way that the Wolves will ever get out of this mess and the three players in this deal should make the Wolves better. Portland gets a lotto pick and an expiring deal for Zach, which could make it easier for them to make a move for Rashard Lewis or Gerald Wallace in a sign-and-trade. As for Sacramento, they rebuild, add a lot post presence they haven't had since Chris Webber, a solid swingman, and move up in the draft to get a prime prospect in Julian Wright. Martin, Wright, and Randolph could be a very nice trio for the future.

8. Phoenix via Charlotte selects Al Horford:
The Suns want to avoid the luxury tax and are going to have to dump Shawn Marion. One problem, of course, is that not many teams have expiring deals and even fewer will be willing to risk much for a guy who has a player option next year and could walk away for nothing. The Celtics could make a play for Marion with Theo Ratliff's contract but the Celtics ownership is more scared of the luxury tax than the Suns management and Pierce, Marion, and a re-signed Jefferson would put the C's over the tax threshold. Then again, if the owners are really about winning now, it's possible Ainge could work a way to get both Marion and Ray Allen. The luxury tax would be a bundle but Earl Watson/Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Marion, and Jefferson is a tough team to beat.

Unfortunately, we live in the real world in which that likely won't happen and the best thing Phoenix could do is to dump Marion for immediate cap relief, which the Bobcats can offer. Since they are under the cap, the 'Cats only need to give up back 25% of the salary that they take back so something as simple as Marion for Brevin Knight and #8 could work. But let's go with Brevin Knight, Sean May, #8, and #22 for Shawn Marion, Marcus Banks, #24, and #29. If the 'Cats re-sign Gerald Wallace, a Wallace/Marion/Okafor frontcourt might just be enough to make up for Adam Morrison's defense.

9. Chicago selects Spencer Hawes:
Chicago is crushed when the Bobcats (who have Okafor and May) deal their pick to Phoenix. Chicago wanted Horford, REALLY want to deal their pick for a veteran, but in the end will go with the best post scorer available, Spencer Hawes. They hope Hawes reminds McHale of himself and helps them in a deal for Kevin Garnett.

10. Seattle via Sacramento via Portland selects Joakim Noah:
Over the last three drafts, the Blazers have added Greg Oden, Lamarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Martell Webster, and Jarrett Jack. A far cry from the previous three years when they added Sebastian Telfair, Segei Monya, Viktor Khrypa, Travis Outlaw, and Qyntel Woods. But with the Zach Randolph move opening up some breathing room (and getting them an expiring deal and this pick), the busy Blazers consummate a sign-and-trade with Seattle for Rashard Lewis. Al Thornton is an interesting prospect but the Sonics already grabbed Brandan Wright to play alongside Durant. The toss up is between Jo Noah and Acie Law/Javarris Crittenton. Part of me thinks Crittenton is the better pick but for now I'm going to go with conventional wisdom which is that the Sonics can't let a draft pass without taking a center in the first round. Noah also adds much needed defense and gives the Sonics a frontline of the future of Durant, Wright, and Noah.

11. Denver via Atlanta selects Al Thornton:
Atlanta now regrets taking Mike Conley so early. They miss out on Noah and Hawes and are starting at a draft board full of swingmen which isn't what a team full of swingmen needs. Luckily for them, Denver needs to cut some payroll and the Hawks are under the cap. The Hawks could go after Marcus Camby for Anthony Johnson but I think the deal they might go after is the overpaid yet underrated Nene, who came alive once he was healthy and in shape. Only needing to ship out a quarter of Nene's salary, the Hawks offer Anthony Johnson or Lorenzen Wright along with the 11th pick for Nene. The Nuggets, desperate to cut payroll, agree. They draft Al Thornton, who could be a very nice complement at the 4, between 'Melo and Camby.

12. Philadelphia selects Jeff Green:
If the Sixers aren't dealing Andre Miller, I don't know what they can do. Nobody is going to want Sam Dalmbert or Willie Green's contract. They opt for the multi-talented Green over Thaddeus and Nick Young. 13. New Orleans selects Nick Young:
Thaddeus Young is probably the best talent remaining but the Hornets aren't looking to add a long term project to their roster. Young should be able to step in and replace Desmond Mason, should he leave via free agency.

14. LA Clippers selects Acie Law IV:
Crittenton has more upside but the Clippers need to right their ship immediately. Unfortunately, the market for Cuttino Mobley isn't very high and Donald Sterling refuses to trade Corey Maggette. The Clippers could make a move in this draft, but right now it looks like the Clip Ship is dead in the water.

15. Detroit selects Rodney Stuckey:
The Georgia Tech prospects continue to fall as Detroit opts for Stuckey over Crittenton and Young. Stuckey just seems like less of a project and like someone who could step in and get minutes from day 1. Also, drafting someone like Crittenton could rub Chauncey Billups the wrong way which is not what you want to do since he's a free agent.

16. Washington selects Tiago Splitter:
Antawn Jamison did wonders for his trade value in the playoffs but you'd have to think that the Wizards would like to see what they could do with a healthy Agent Zero, Butler, and Jamison together. Lord knows that the Bobcats would probably offer the #8 for UNC grad Jamison but the Wiz won't bite. They might opt to move down if it means dumping Brendan Haywood buby for now, we'll tab the Brazilian defensive stopper Tiago Splitter as the pick.

17. New Jersey selects Jason Smith:
The Nets need to figure out what's going on with Vince Carter ASAP because it affects what they do here. If they are rebuilding, then Thad Young is the obvious choice. If they are making a run, an upperclassman big man makes more sense.

18. Golden St. selects Josh McRoberts:
This could be the best place for McRoberts to land. He is an athlete with a ton of skills but he struggled in Duke's system. What better place to take advantage of his abilities than the up-and-down frenetic Golden St. system?

19. LA Lakers selects Sean Williams:
Kobe might go ballistic if they took Thad Young, another guy who is years away from helping out a playoff team. Sean Williams, on the other hand, fills a need. When you are relying on Kwame Brown to be your interior defender, things aren't going to go well. Williams is a pothead but he's a pothead who can play amazing defense so the Lakers will gamble on him. If he can stay clean, Williams could make up one hell of a frontcourt alongside Andrew Bynum.

20. Houston via Miami selects Javarris Crittenton:
The Houston re-boot continues with the Rockets dealing Bonzi Wells and Juwan Howard to Miami for Jason Williams and the 20th pick. The choice comes between Crittenton and Thaddeus Young but, in the end, the Rockets opt for the point guard prospect over the swingman.

21. Denver via Philadelphia selects Derrick Byars:
Denver gets their pick back from Philly in a deal of Reggie Evans and JR Smith for Kevin Ollie and the #21 pick. Ollie is an expiring deal which helps get rid of the three more years left on Evans's deal. J.R. Smith came on last season but he ended up getting benched in the playoffs which hurts his trade stock. The Nuggets opt for Byars, a good shooter and a much better defende than Smith.

22. Phoenix via Charlotte selects Alando Tucker:
Tucker is the best pick to be able to step in and play for a veteran team.

23. New York selects Thaddeus Young:
Isiah might have traded a lotto pick but he ends up with a lotto talent falling into this lap.

24. Phoenix selects Marco Belinelli:
Hopefully, they can convince the Italian sharpshooter to stay overseas for a year while they sort out their financial issues.

25. Utah selects Rudy Fernandez :
Personally, I think they needed to use Ronnie Brewer more this year but Fernandez is a good talent and possibly the best fit for the Jazz.

26. Houston selects Daequan Cook:
Another project but another talent for the Rockets who walk out of the draft with Jianlian, Cook, and Crittenton.

27. Detroit selects Brandon Rush:
The best player available.

28. San Antonio selects Morris Almond:
A shooter off the bench, I mean, Bones Barry can't last forever can he?

29. Phoenix selects Marcus Williams:
A problem child but he could be worth the risk because of his talent. Just the type of player that Steve Nash can help look great.

30. Philadelphia selects Big Baby Glen Davis:
If just for the Barkley comparisons.

Posted by SoulHonky at 12:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The NBA lottery wasn't an anamoly, it was a sign. This offseason is going to be the craziest in recent memory and the fact that three teams jumped up to take the top three slots of the lottery only made things crazier. Currently there are good players who can become free agents, great players who are on the block, bad teams trying to decide if they should rebuild or try to win now, and very good teams wondering what move will help them become great. Draft day 2007 is going to be an interesting one. Let's look at who has what and where they might be headed.

1. Portland selects Greg Oden:
Yes, Kevin Durant fills their current roster better but you don't pass up Greg Oden because you have Zach Randolph and LaMarcus Aldridge. So after taking Oden, the first order of business in Portland is to find a new home for Zach Randolph and Darius Miles. In the case of Miles, if New York doesn't bite on a deal for Malik Rose or some sort of Jerome James and Nate Robinson for Miles and the 37th pick type deal, the Blazers will likely have to bite the bullet and buy Miles out. That leaves Z-Bo.
Dallas and Chicago need low post threats but neither team seems likely to add a possible malcontent. The Lakers could use a low post scorer but they need defense more than that, which isn't Zach's cup of tea. Kevin McHale never met a headcase or a bad contract he wouldn't trade for but he'd have to give up the #7 pick for Zach which might seem steep. In the end, the best deal might be to offer one headcase for another.
The Sacramento Kings could deal Ron Artest and Kenny Thomas for Zach Randolph. The Kings get a low post scorer that they haven't had since Chris Webber and dump Artest, who has never fit in. Portland takes on the premiere basketcase in the NBA but he can opt out of his final year (which is 2008/9) so it might be a one year flyer. And if it works out, an Artest, Aldridge, Oden frontcourt could be tough to score on.
One of the other issues for the Blazers is Raef Lafrentz's player option on his contract. I'm not sure if it's against the rules but if I was the Blazers owner, I'd broker a deal to pay Raef most of the money due to him if he agreed to opt out of his contract. If he did that, the Blazers could make a run at free agent Rashard Lewis to fill the three spot.

2. Seattle selects Kevin Durant:
Oh what a difference one slot makes. With Greg Oden on the team, Seattle could convince Rashard Lewis to stay and keep Ray Allen happy. However by winning the second pick, odds are that one of those two might be going to Disney World. 'Shard probably won't want to stick around when the new savior plays the same position and Allen probably won't want to wait for Durant to get acclimated to the NBA.
The Sonics don't have much say in the Lewis situation. He could just go and sign with Charlotte and there's nothing the Sonics can do. Only time can tell what will happen there. Ray Allen, however, is under contract so the Sonics control their own destiny. They could deal him to Orlando but all the Magic have to offer is Jameer Nelson and a sign-and-trade of Darko Milicic. (Although, in term's of Rashard Lewis, a Darko for 'Shard swap would be better than losing Lewis for nothing.) The Grizzlies could offer the #4 pick and Hakim Warrick but the Sonics would likely have to take on Brian Cardinal's crap contract. Frighteningly, the deal that could pan out is Wally Szczerbiak, the #5 pick, Gerald Green, Delonte West, Sebastian Telfair (likely to be waived immediately), and Brian Scalabrine for Ray Allen, Earl Watson, and Robert Swift. Personally, I'm not a fan of this but I could see Ainge pulling the trigger on that deal.

3. Atlanta selects Mike Conley Jr.:
Lord knows what Billy Knight might do but I think that he has to go with a point guard first. With a bevy of young talent and the #11 pick, he could easily try to move up to grab a better draft pick. Then again, if Knight focuses on the fact that he is going to lose his draft pick next year, he might want to force the issue. Ironically, one of his best targets might be Pau Gasol, the man the Hawks dealt away last time they had the #3 pick and forced the issue (they dealt Pau, Brevin Knight, and Lorenzen Wright for Shareef Abdur-Rahim). Still, I think the PG position is extremely important and the Hawks can't afford to blow another opportunity at bringing in a potential elite PG.

4. Houston via Memphis selects Yi Jianlian
The Grizzlies, like the Celtics, have to figure out if they want to win now or rebuild. And the Grizzlies, like the Celtics, will likely opt for winning now. Odds are that they won't be able to get what they want for Gasol (especially if Ben Gordon and Luol Deng is the going rate) so they will likely look to move the pick. While this deal would never happen, I think the best deal for all teams involved could be Mike Miller, #4, Brian Cardinal, and Hakim Warrick for Tracy McGrady. The Rockets become Yao's team and Miller would be a perfect complement. Warrick can handle the PF spot until Jianlian is ready to take over. While T-Mac is still a beast, he's getting older and has been talking retirement. And although Jeff Van Gundy took the fall, it's time to realize that the McGrady/Ming duo isn't going to bring a title to H-Town. Financially, the Grizzlies get the superstar they've been looking for in order to sell more tickets while the Rockets become China's team and sell even more jerseys.

5. Seattle via Boston selects Brandan Wright
While I don't like the idea, I'm going to stick with the trade I mentioned earlier with Ray Allen and Wally, Green, West and the #5 as the main pieces. The other option is the opposite direction which would be replacing McGrady with Pierce in the Memphis deal. That will never happen simply because there's no way Ainge could sell that to the fan base. So Seattle ends up with this pick and they have to decide between Corey Brewer's defense over Brandan Wright upside. I think the Sonics will opt for becoming Toronto West with Durant and Wright being their Bosh and Bargnani. Ridnour, Green, Durant, Wright, and Petro might be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA but oh the upside!

6. Milwaukee selects Corey Brewer
If Atlanta wants to move up, some sort of deal involving Josh Smith and Shelden Williams for Brian Skinner, the #6, and Milwaukee 2008 pick could be discussed and it might be possible if Corey Brewer goes at #5 and Brandan Wright is still available here. Even still a deal could happen. Josh Smith is a defensive beast who might have worn out his welcome in A-Town. He also would be a perfect complement to the defensive-sieve that is Charlie Villenueva. Smith could handle the 3 or 4 while I'm not sure that Brewer is going to be able to help check Villenueva's man. If Wright isn't around though, I can't see Atlanta giving up so much unless they really are sick of J-Smooth's act. Brewer makes sense in Milwaukee as he replaces Ruben Patterson as the defensive stopper.

Part 2 to come tomorrow.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

So how much did one year of college really help the top freshmen and how many of these players should stay in another year? The one thing another year of college would help insure is instant success in the pros but how many of these kids really need to play for free for another year as opposed to learning on the job?

1) Greg Oden broke is hand and basically spent the whole season listening to people question how good he really is. People expected him to be a senior year version of Tim Duncan (and ignored the fact that Oden's numbers were better than Duncan's first year, about even with his second year, and he helped get his team further in the tournament that Duncan ever did).

2) Kevin Durant got to show the world just how good he was but did he get any better? It's not like his major weaknesses, creating for teammates and defense really got any better over the year. In the last month of the season, Durant had a 4 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Since he's probably just going to run wild over college teams, the best way for him to harness his game and improve his skills is to take them to the next level.

3) Brandan Wright has the toughest decision. Personally, I think he could really benefit from another year but can you really turn down an almost guarenteed top 5 selection? The key is confidence. If Wright has the attitude that can handle getting beat up in the pros (and possibly having teammates admonishing you and keeping on you to work harder), then he might as well leave and take his lumps like (and while being paid like) a man. If he doesn't have that type of personality, then there's the risk of getting beaten down like Kwame Brown. People forget how skilled Brown was coming out of school but he was a child off-the-court. Making matter worse was Michael Jordan who didn't come back out of retirement to coddle a youngster. Brown went into a shell from which he and his skills have never emerged.

4) Thad Young struggled in the beginning of the season, improved, but all of the same questions remain. The biggest issue for Young is one that really can't be answered until he gets into the pros: What position does he play? It terms of immediate impact, another year would help so he could fill out and work improve his jumper but it's not like those aren't things that he could accomplish under the guidance of a professional coaching staff. (Also, there's no guarentee that those things happen in college either)

5) Young's teammate Javaris Crittenton has a tough decision. He most certainly needs another year but what happens if he doesn't show enough improvement? There is always the threat of being the next Chris Duhon (supposed lotto player after his sophomore year who fell to the second round in his senior year) or even Chris Thomas (Lotto candidate who stayed in and went undrafted). Possibly a deciding factor for Crittenton was Young's decision to leave. Without Thaddeus as a running mate Crittenton could face stiffer defenses which could help stifle his game and his draft stock. Something similar happened to Rodney Stuckey. At the beginning of the year he was the nation's best kept secret but once the secret was out, defenses keyed on him and now he might fall out of the first round. Also, Stuckey stayed in despite 2006 being a horrific draft and now he's coming out in a loaded one. Crittenton has to keep an eye out for this as well. 2007 is a very weak draft in terms of PG's while next year looks like it could be loaded with Derrick Rose and OJ Mayo as well as fellow to-be-sophomores Ty Lawson, Darren Collison, and Scottie Reynolds. While he might not be ready on day one, how many PG's are? Going later in the draft means he'll likely get a chance to understudy for a couple of years before getting the reins. The only reason to stay in college is if you have to learn to lead a team. This was Shaun Livingston's achilles heel and one that he might have been able to work on in college (as opposed to dealing with NBA-sized egos). This isn't a problem for Crittenton so he might as well learn on the job as opposed to staying in school.

6) Spencer Hawes' problem is that he's not that athletic. Staying in school isn't going to change that. And playing well won't make people overlook that, just ask Aaron Gray or Glen Davis. Hawes needs to strike while the iron is hot and enter this draft now.

7) Daequan Cook, on the other hand, should only come out this season if he thinks that a) he is overhyped and is just going to get exposed in college or b) thinks he made a mistake by going to Ohio St. and will never get a fair shake from Thad Motta. While he can always improve in the pros, he might be better off being the man for one or two years at Ohio State and working on his complete game. Unless he feels that he's the next Josh McRoberts, school should be back in session for Cook.

As for the guys that stayed in, the only two who might want to come out now is Hasheem Thabeet and Chase Buddinger. If Thabeet is truly a hardship case and won't likely stay past his second year, you might wonder why bother staying another year. He's still going to be a project so why not make some money? The one thing going for him next season is that Greg Oden, Greg Hibbert, and Spencer Hawes won't be in the draft. Maybe Brook Lopez and Kosta Koufos jump over him in the rankings but odds are he'll still be a lotto pick. With Buddinger, he only needs to look at teammate Marcus Williams, a guy who was a top player coming into the year and now could possibly fall to the second round. And, as with Hawes, one of his issues is foot speed. Buddinger has to be realistic and take a look at his defensive skills. If he thinks he can improve them, then he should stay in. If he thinks his problem is foot speed, then he should leave immediately. After his freshman year, Jason Kapono was the belle of the ball and a likely mid-first round pick. The longer he stayed, the longer people realized that he lacked foot-speed and was fairly one-dimensional and he fell in the draft. Ty Lawson might want to take advantage of the poor PG crop but he could use another year of leading a team and learning how to use his skills.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The crazy coaching connections of college basketball continues. Michael Beasley (pictured left) was about to walk from Kansas State but was pleased to find out that they promoted assistant coach Dalonte Hill to replace the out-going Bob Huggins. Hill, it seems, was actually more influential than Huggins when it came to Beasley's decision to attend Kansas State. The McDonald's All-American had originally committed to Charlotte, in part because Hill was an assistant coach there. But then Hill suddenly was wooed to go to K-State (I wonder why?) so Beasley "de-committed" and followed his favorite assistant coach off to Manhattan, Kansas.

If Beasley is one and done, it should be interesting to see if Hill stays on as the head coach or if the promotion had more to do with keeping the prized recruit than actually hiring a long term head coach. Hill is supposedly a "rising star" in NCAA coaching circles so maybe it's a long term deal but you never can tell when it comes to college sports.

So Bill Walker will have a top recruit to play with next season, if he's healthy enough and doesn't have to redshirt.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The already ugly story that is Bill Walker's college career has taken another turn for the worse. Bill Walker went from a possible lottery pick to poster boy for the worst case-scenario for top ranked high schoolers going to college.

Heading into this year's recruiting season, Bill Walker and O.J. Mayo were two prizes both of whom seemed to have ties to unemployed coach Bob Huggins. In fact, some reports had Huggins using that fact as a reason for school's to hire him. In the end, Kansas State hired Huggins (despite in checkered past) and Bill Walker seemed like a sure thing to join the team next season.

Then something strange happened. It turned out that Walker's transcript was incorrect and he actually had had two freshmen years. What that meant was that Walker's junior season was actually his fourth, and final, year of eligibilty so he was no longer able to play college basketball. While some would see this as a crushing blow to a young man, it was a minor hurdle for Walker who simply (and suddenly) was able to graduate early and matriculate to K-State in time for the second semester of the 2006-2007 school year (and second half of the team's season). An ugly battle loomed on the horizon as Walker was looking to test the NBA's age limit. To be eligible for the draft, a player has to be one year removed from his graduating class. Unfortunately for Walker, while the Ohio hoops governing board saw 2005 - 6 as his senior year (and thus ruled him ineligible to play), the NBA still counted 2006-7 as his graduating class so he wasn't able to declare either. Adding more confusion to the mix is Sonny Vaccaro who pointed out that Walker had dual citizenship. The rule about being one year removed from high school didn't apply to foreign players, which, by some stretch of the imagination, Walker technically was.

The drama on the horizon, however, quietly set the moment that Walker blew out his knee in his seventh game at K-State. Much like the Celtics' Tony Allen, Walker has a long rehab ahead of him. Still, Walker hoped to work back into shape and take on the NCAA's alongside top recruit and McDonald's All-American Game MVP Michael Beasley.

Not so fast. Now, the man who brought Walker to Manhattan, Kansas might be on his way out. Bob Huggins is considering leaving Kansas State for the West Virginia. If he does so, Michael Beasley would likely rescind his letter of intent and head to another school, leaving Bill Walker stuck. Walker could transfer but then he could be forced to sit out a full year before being eligible to play and, for a player with his eyes on the NBA Draft, there could be nothing worse than being forced to sit for a year and a half. Most likely, he plays out his year at K-State and bolts for the NBA. Hardly what he was expecting when he was promised big things from Huggins.

This is my problem with forcing players to go to college. In many cases, coaches are focused on themselves. They may have some deeper will to win but, more importantly, they all have a need to win or else they will be fired. In any other profession, college is supposed to prepare you for your future career. College sports, however, are focused on winning now, future be damned. The rules in college limit the freedom of the player so choosing the wrong school (or having the school recruit another top prospect at your position) could ruin one's chances at making the NBA. In the end, forcing people into a situation which doesn't care about their future and from which they have little power to maneuver is patently unfair.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)

One player whom won't be seen this March Madness is super-sophomore Rodney Stuckey out of Eastern Washington. Stuckey entered the season as the oxymoronic much lauded best kept secret in college hoops. The 6'5 combo guard burst on the scene last season and then had a solid season in his second year. Comparisons with Dwyane Wade aren't uncommon but the downside of that is that people compare him to Wade because of his lack of an outside shot.

Could Stuckey be the next Wade? Who knows. And NBA scouts aren't going to have a lot of time to figure it out. Wade helped his draft stock with a great tournament performance and then wowed even more people in the pre-draft workouts. Stuckey isn't in the tourney and a new NBA rule has now outlawed workouts before the NBA pre-draft camp. The rule change didn't make much splash in the news and has been widely ignored but for the likes of Rodney Stuckey and other people who want to help themselves in workouts, its a major blow.

Last season, the Celtics started working out players the day before the lottery, two weeks before the pre-draft camp. While that might not seem like a lot of lost time, for Rodney Stuckey, it makes his odds of moving up the draft even harder. This year, Stuckey only has 23 days to workout for teams. As he could go anywhere from the early-20's to the mid-to-late lottery, he'll likely have twenty-three days to work out with twenty-or-so teams all over the country. It's a rigorous schedule that would wear down many players. Stuckey could go the Gerald Green route and only workout for teams that are in the range in which he wants to be drafted. That is a major risk as even a super-prospect like Gerald Green fell because of it. When the first teams passed on Gerald, he fell into the laps of teams who hadn't seen him workout. The problem, of course, was that those teams fell in love with a prospect that they had worked out and passed on Gerald. While that worked out for the Celtics, it isn't exactly a risk Stuckey might want to take. Still, it puts Stuckey in an odd position; say a team without a draft pick might be interested in trading for a pick in order to select Stuckey? Does he add them to his already chock-full workout schedule and perhaps wear himself down even further for later workouts? (And working out for a team twice might be out of the question)

The NBA made the rule change for their own self-interest, i.e, they were tired of nobody showing up to their pre-draft camp. The NBA wanted big name players to show up but why? Judging players in the pre-draft camp is like drafting off of summer league play. The games are ragged and performing in those games doesn't necessarily translate to actual NBA games. Also, the big names have nothing to prove. The pre-draft camp was a major boost for second rounders. As they had a chance to show their skills. With more top talent (and guys who are locks to be draft) some border-line talents will likely be pushed out. Also, the NBA is once again putting their own personal pet project over the welfare of the game. If most teams would rather scout the best prospect on their own, why not let them? Does the NBA see the pre-draft camp as an attendance draw or as something that they could put on TV? With our without bluechip prospects, who besides die-hard fans will watch it either way?

The ulterior motive might just be to dissuade underclassman who are on the bubble from coming out. Giving them less time to prove themselves would make staying in college a bit more enticing. That being said, how much would it help? Craig Smith and Paul Millsap could have played 8 years in college, teams still would have shied away from them, despite their talents, because of their heights. Leon Powe's stock dropped after he blew outs his knees. People said he should stay in to show he could be healthy for a season, as if his already injured knees would just go away or be overlooked by scouts. Why risk getting hurt again playing for free?

The NBA draft is a crap shoot and this rule is just making it more muddied than before. While the top of the draft should be OK, I wouldn't be surprised if we started to see a lot of talented players fall into the second round or even go undrafted.

Posted by SoulHonky at 01:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

While it's looking like the Celtics will have the 2nd best chance at the #1 pick, that slot hasn't been very kind to its owners in the last few years. Since the NBA changed the draft lottery in 1995, the second worst team has landed the #1 overall selection once (Philly, Allen Iverson). Even more depressing is the fact that in those 11* years, the 2nd worst team has only ended up with the 2nd pick twice (2002, Jay Williams; 2006, Ty Thomas who was then traded to Portland, 2006). The second worst team has ended up with the 4th worst pick six out of the last eleven years. The players grabbed at the 4th spot those years? Rasheed Wallace (1995), Antawn Jamison, who was immediately dealt for Vince Carter (1998), Lamar Odom (1999), Marcus Fizer (2000), Shaun Livingston (2004), Chris Paul (2005). Not a bad haul. Also on the bright side, the pick has only fallen to its worst possible outcome once, when the Warriors took Jason Richardson with the 5th pick.

The possible lucky teams? Well, the third worst team has won as many top two picks (5) as the worst team has over the past few years. And the fifth worst team has managed to sneak into the top two four times. The worst team to win the lottery was the Washington in 2001 (8th worst team) but their luck didn't hold as they took Kwame Brown with the pick.

So what does this all mean? Absolutely nothing. We still have the 2nd best chance at the top pick and around a 40% chance at a top 2 pick. Really all it is is a reminder not to count your Buckeyes (or Longhorns) before they hatch.

* This does not include 2003 in which there was a tie for last place so the distribution of ping pong ball was altered. The Cavs and Nuggets had an equal shot at the first pick. Cleveland won the lotto, Denver ended up with the third pick. The 6th worst Grizzlies won the 2nd pick (but had years earlier dealt it to Detroit for Otis Thorpe).

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)