Eastern Conference Prediction
Alright, break time is over. The NBA is back and so I'm back to blogging. Glad to see nobody missed me. Here's the Eastern Conference predictions.
1. Detroit: I still think the Pistons are the team to beat. The window is closing as age and injuries creep up on the 'Stones but with Billups, Rip, 'Sheed, and Prince they still have the best quartet and they upgraded their bench. Losing Webber could put a dent in their rotation (I have a feeling that Jason Maxiell might be a summer league mirage) but this team should still find its way to the #1 seed in the East.
2. Boston: Unless injuries catch up to Pierce and Allen (which isn't hard to imagine), the Celtics should be able to nab a top 3 spot in the East. Rajon Rondo is still learning to run the point but his defense is strong and the C's have the offensive firepower to be able to maintain while their PG gets through his growing pains. Kendrick Perkins should finally emerge as a solid big man... if he can stay healthy. The C's have a three year window to make it happen but I think their best shot will actually come next season.
3. Chicago: The Bulls were good last year and are only getting better. The keys to a smooth season is tied to the emergence/arrival of Ty Thomas and Joakim Noah as well as the contract situations of Luol Deng and Ben Gordon. Those two working to earn a max contract could be great but then again, it could cause them to focus on themselves and move away from the team basketball which Scott Skiles preaches. All of this being said, I've thought the Bulls would be at the top of the East the last couple of years and they've disappointed.
4. New Jersey: The Celtics Big Three gets all of the press but the Nets trio of Kidd, Vince, and Richard Jefferson is still formidable and a healthy Nenad Krstic could have them threatening to steal the Atlantic crown from Boston. If Jamaal Magloire can turn back the clock or Sean Williams can put down the pipe, they could have one of the best starting fives in the league. The bench has been improved but the loss of the underrated Bernard Robinson to a torn MCL means that they might have to rely on Antoine Wright. The Nets can't be excited about that seeing as they just Nets turned down his contract option for next year.
5. Toronto: Andrea Bargnani is the front-runner for Most Improved Player while Chris Bosh and TJ Ford are already All-Star level players. Defense could prove to be a problem, especially with Jason Kapono figuring to get big minutes. Sam Mitchell's team will again be ready to step up if the top teams falter but they are still a shooting guard away from being able to overtake the top teams outright (especially come playoff time).
6. Washington: The Wizards would have won their division and could have made some noise in the playoffs had their trio of Hibachi, Jamison, and Butler not gone down with injuries. They have an interesting bench with Aundray Blatche, Oleksiy Pecherov, Nick Young, Dominic McGuire, and Darius Songaila. Interesting, however, isn't a good description of a bench. Blatche should be improved but he seems like he's ready to start getting statistics and still needs to learn how to help a team win. McGuire's defense and energy might actually make him the best young guy this year but regardless, this team lives and dies on their trio: Arenas, Jamison, and Butler. Those three should have the Wiz in the playoffs but they'll be hard-pressed to carry the team to home court advantage in the first round.
7. Miami: If Shaq and Wade are healthy and care about the regular season, this team could win the East. If they aren't, they might not even win their division. With Daequan Cook, Ricky Davis, and Penny Hardaway in the mix, it should be a team to keep an eye on but with health being such an issue, they are a hard team to put money on.
8. Cleveland: If there was ever a team that seemed destined for complacency, it's the Cavs. They have done next to nothing to improve their team and if they don't find a way to re-sign Sasha and Sideshow Anderson, they'll have taken a real step back. And after making it to the Finals last season, I could see them sleepwalking through the regular season.
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9. Orlando: The Magic have talent but they just don't seem all that impressive. Yes, they could be capable of putting together a big regular season but I think they'd then get swept in the playoffs. Dwight Howard is a monster but his game is all power right now. Rashard Lewis is a nice second option who is getting paid like a second team All-NBA candidate. Jameer Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu, and JJ Redick? I just can't jump on this bandwagon. Even worse, the addition of Rashard could mean less minutes for Trevor Ariza, who was quietly one of the most important players on the team last season. I like Stan Van Gundy as a coach but I think it will take him a year or two to get this team playing his style of basketball.
10. Atlanta: If Mike Woodson can make it happen, the Hawks should surprise a lot of people this season. The team has been a mess at the point guard position but this season Anthony Johnson should be able to lead this team. Off the bench, Ty Lue and Acie Law IV give the Hawks depth at the position. The key to the season is Al Horford and Josh Smith. If Smith can get his ego under control, he should be one of the better players in the NBA. If he tries to be the Human Highlight Reel, it will be another soap opera in Hotlanta. Al Horford should have a shot at being the Rookie of the Year and will show Shelden Williams exactly how a lotto pick big man should make his mark in the NBA. All of those "should"'s being said, the Hawks could also find themselves in last place since things never seem to go as they should in ATL.
11. New York: Vegas oddsmakers must be terrified of the Knicks. This is a team that has the talent to beat the best but at the same time could probably get blown out by the worst as well. The biggest issue, which Isiah has noted but been unable to fix, is the lack of consistent shooting. This makes it easy to double down on Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry. The odds of either of those guys passing it back out to the perimeter is bad but the odds of someone on the perimeter hitting a jumper is worse. David Lee should be ready to emerge but instead is trying to learn how to play small forward. Wilson Chandler should be a solid rookie but his role is basically the same as Renaldo Balkman's. I like a lot of the players on the Knicks but I don't like them as a team.
12. Charlotte: This is a team with a lot of talent and nobody to bring it together. Raymond Felton is a solid point guard but he's not the playmaker this squad needs. Gerald Wallace will emerge as an All-Star caliber player but he, Jason Richardson, and Emeka Okafor need someone who can run the show. Replace Felton with Chris Paul and the Bobcats are a playoff team. Another problem is outside shooting. Richardson, Felton, and Wallace make up one of the worst shooting backcourts in the league. They're best lineup will probably have Okafor at center with Wallace at 4 and Matt Carroll at 3. The Bobcats will be able to sneak up on some teams and beat teams that look past them but they were good enough last season that everyone realizes this and will take them seriously.
13. Indiana: Jim O'Brien should like what the Pacers can do offensively but defensively this team is going to be a mess. They need career seasons from most of their players to fight for the playoffs and even then, an injury to Jermaine O'Neal (which is basically a given at this point in his career) would derail them. Indiana will live or die by the three. If Granger, Dunleavy, Diener, and Murphy are on, they could upset some teams and make no mistake that almost every win they have this season will be considered an upset.
14. Milwaukee: On draft night, I said that the new Bucks frontcourt looks more like a trio of Bond villains than a trio of All-Stars and I stand by that. Bogut, Villain, and Yi is one of the most mismatched trios in basketball unless the question is: who are three of the worst defenders in the league? Outside of Michael Redd, everything about this team screams "average". I like Mo Williams but he's an average starting PG. Bobby Simmons and Dez Mason aren't going to help much. While Larry Harris had a very successful first year in Milwaukee, he has been one of the worst GM's in the league over the last two years. He'll be rewarded by getting a shot at Derrick Rose or OJ Mayo.
15. Philadelphia: The Sixers are rebuilding and are heading into a very important offseason next year. They'll have 'Dre Miller's expiring contract and, for the first time in about decade, cap space to sign some free agents. This season will be a time to watch Louis Williams, Sam Dalembert, and Kyle Korver so the front office can figure out whether the team wants to keep them or if they will be able to dump them for anything of value. Thad Young will likely have a rough rookie year but Philly fans should hold off before labeling him a bum. He's a project, which is perfect for the Sixers who'll be looking to add top picks the next couple of years to get them back to the playoffs.
