The Candidates
Oden and Durant won't fall to #5. Al Horford is a no-brainer if he falls there and we've already addressed The Brandan Wright Situation. Most likely, this foursome will be off the board when it comes time for the Celtics to make there selection, so let's look at the top prospects from whom we'll be choosing.
Mike Conley Jr.: As good as Rajon Rondo is, Mike Conley Jr. is much better. The one edge Rondo has is that he is more tuned in on defense but that's not to say Conley is a slouch. Conley is the epitome of a pure point guard and should join TJ Ford and Chris Paul as one of the top little men in the NBA. Some people will bring up the fact that he is only 6'1 but talent and athleticism overcomes lack of height so that should be a problem. What could be more of an issue is Conley Jr's shot. While not nearly as bad as Rondo's, Conley doesn't have three point range and, while he seems to knock them down in crunch time, doesn't have the most reliable medium range shot either.
The Fit: Conley's questionable shot shouldn't be a huge issue for most teams but it is an issue for the Celtics because it's unlikely that the team could really play Rondo and Conley on the court together. A point guard like Javaris Crittenton has the size and shot to complement Rajon but Conley would be more of a replacement.
The Decision: Conley is a very unlikely choice for the Celtics. The draft can offer similarly ranked prospects that fill a need more. The final nail in the coffin is the fact that next year's draft could be a point guard bonanza so there's no need to force a pick for Mike Jr. Spencer Hawes : A man of a million moves, Hawes could be the most gifted offensive big man in the draft. Whether he can hang on defense is another question. Hawes isn't a sloth but he's isn't shutting anyone down either.
The Fit: The Celtics need a big man and Spencer could operate on the high post while Jefferson mans the paint but the lack of defense is a bit problematic.
The Decision: Hawes could be a very good #3 star, perhaps like Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but the Celtics might be better adding a defensive stalwart or a more athletic power forward instead. Jeff Green: Green probably has the highest bust potential of any of the players on this list. It's not that he has one weakness as much as it is that he doesn't have one strength. He's a good athlete but might not be able to defend quicker small forwards. He can score in the post but isn't a legit post threat. He can play on the perimeter but his shot isn't consistent. He seems like a suburban man's Shane Battier to me.
The Fit: While Green might have the most bust potential, he might also be the guy that would feel most comfortable in the Celtics system, since the PF often finds himself standing at the top of the perimeter, setting up the offense. If he can handle the PF, he wouldn't be a terrible person to put alongside Jefferson but as long as Rondo is the point guard, the C's will most likely need someone with an outside shot at the 3.
The Decision: Ainge could go for Green and he wouldn't be a bad pick. At the same time, I don't see him being a player that makes us any better. Yi Jianlian: My reaction to Yi Jianlian is somewhat similar to seeing someone yelling in Chinese while you walk down the street. You have no idea what they are saying, you don't know if they are excited or mad, you might want to be more interested, but all told would rather prefer to just pass by and forget about them. Talent-wise, Yi seems like he's an Asian Andrea Bargnani. The one difference might be that Bargnani influenced the game while Yi sounds like he lets the game comes to him.
The Fit: If you want a guy who could complement Al Jefferson on the offensive end, this is it. He's got the jumpers, hook shots, decent range, you name it. He is more of a face up big man who can put the ball on the floor. Who knows what could happen once Clifford Ray started working with him. Unfortunately for Yi, this isn't football and you have to play both ways. His defense is a problem. He doesn't have the size or strength to handle big men and lacks the quickness to really stay with SF's. He might be a nice weakside defender. Golden St. or Phoenix might be the best fits for him as he might be better off in a running offense (complemented by a Marion or Matt Barnes who can take the harder defensive assignment).
The Decision: Who knows? Right now, I'd bet that his ceiling is more Rashard Lewis than Dirk Nowitzki but he also might just be Vladimir Radmanovic. Of the players available at #5, he is the only one that I'd say has superstar potential (maybe an argument could be made for Conley Jr.) but he could be spectacularly mediocre. While his offensive arsenal is impressive, it is no guarantee that he is able to be as effective in the NBA. He's also probably the last guy Paul Pierce wants to see announced because Yi will likely take at least a year to get used to the NBA. All things considered, on the topic of Yi, I vote Nay.
Joakim Noah: Hyper, a winner, more talented overall than some people give him credit for, Noah is probably the safest bet in the eight players mentioned here. He will have a solid NBA career. Now, whether that career is Marcus Camby or Anderson Varejao is anyone's guess.
The Fit: Defensively, he's the perfect fit alongside Jefferson except that he might not be able to handle the bigger stronger centers/PF. He'd be a terrific help defender though. His offense is a mess to look at but is somehow effective. He has a good handle for a PF/C and his shot, is as ugly as Acie Earl's (or even Acie Earl himself) yet it still seems to go in.
The Decision: You can't go wrong with Joakim Noah but you could find a lot more right than him. He's likely good but not great, a solid player that nobody will ever say should NEVER have gone over someone better but won't be as good as a few players who are drafted after him. He's a specialist but the C's need more than that. Julian Wright: Julian Wright is basically Jeff Green but better at everything (except shooting). He can defend, he's smart, he's athletic. The one problem is that he doesn't really seem all that much better than Jeff Green. Wright has all of the tools but never seems to really put them all together. The best comparison seems to be Boris Diaw of 2006. Of course, the problem with Boris Diaw 2006 and Boris Diaw 2005 wasn't Boris Diaw but rather the team he was on and how he was used. Wright might also have to be a PF/C type to get the most out of his talents.
The Fit: Wright could be an interesting fit next to Jefferson, especially if the C's groom him as a poor man's Andrei Kirilenko-type. The problem, again, is his shot. If he could improve his perimeter game, he'd be the perfect fit.
The Decision: While not thrilled about his perimeter game, I think Wright could be the best choice if we stay at #5. He may never be a superstar but he should be a nice fit with Pierce and Jefferson. Corey Brewer: Brewer is a lock-down defender with a knack for making plays on offense. I wouldn't go so far to call him an accomplished offensive player but he can more than hold his own there. He could be a rich man's Stacey Augmon. Still, there's just something that bugs me about him. I'm not going to knock him but his body control is fluid and reminds me of the herky jerky DeShawn Stevenson.
The Fit: The C's need defense and Brewer would likely start at shooting guard if drafted. While he can't create his own shot, all Gerald Green ever did was stand around the 3 point line, and that is basically the only way Brewer can hit them so it works perfectly.
The Decision: As much as I like Thaddeus Young, I think the choice at 5 comes down to Julian Wright or Corey Brewer, and I think Brewer's ability to guard shooting guards makes him the better fit. While the shooting ability of a Rondo/Brewer backcourt might be questionable, the defense, aggresiveness, and attitude would be close to perfect.
Mike Conley Jr.: As good as Rajon Rondo is, Mike Conley Jr. is much better. The one edge Rondo has is that he is more tuned in on defense but that's not to say Conley is a slouch. Conley is the epitome of a pure point guard and should join TJ Ford and Chris Paul as one of the top little men in the NBA. Some people will bring up the fact that he is only 6'1 but talent and athleticism overcomes lack of height so that should be a problem. What could be more of an issue is Conley Jr's shot. While not nearly as bad as Rondo's, Conley doesn't have three point range and, while he seems to knock them down in crunch time, doesn't have the most reliable medium range shot either. The Fit: Conley's questionable shot shouldn't be a huge issue for most teams but it is an issue for the Celtics because it's unlikely that the team could really play Rondo and Conley on the court together. A point guard like Javaris Crittenton has the size and shot to complement Rajon but Conley would be more of a replacement.
The Decision: Conley is a very unlikely choice for the Celtics. The draft can offer similarly ranked prospects that fill a need more. The final nail in the coffin is the fact that next year's draft could be a point guard bonanza so there's no need to force a pick for Mike Jr. Spencer Hawes : A man of a million moves, Hawes could be the most gifted offensive big man in the draft. Whether he can hang on defense is another question. Hawes isn't a sloth but he's isn't shutting anyone down either.
The Fit: The Celtics need a big man and Spencer could operate on the high post while Jefferson mans the paint but the lack of defense is a bit problematic.
The Decision: Hawes could be a very good #3 star, perhaps like Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but the Celtics might be better adding a defensive stalwart or a more athletic power forward instead. Jeff Green: Green probably has the highest bust potential of any of the players on this list. It's not that he has one weakness as much as it is that he doesn't have one strength. He's a good athlete but might not be able to defend quicker small forwards. He can score in the post but isn't a legit post threat. He can play on the perimeter but his shot isn't consistent. He seems like a suburban man's Shane Battier to me.
The Fit: While Green might have the most bust potential, he might also be the guy that would feel most comfortable in the Celtics system, since the PF often finds himself standing at the top of the perimeter, setting up the offense. If he can handle the PF, he wouldn't be a terrible person to put alongside Jefferson but as long as Rondo is the point guard, the C's will most likely need someone with an outside shot at the 3.
The Decision: Ainge could go for Green and he wouldn't be a bad pick. At the same time, I don't see him being a player that makes us any better. Yi Jianlian: My reaction to Yi Jianlian is somewhat similar to seeing someone yelling in Chinese while you walk down the street. You have no idea what they are saying, you don't know if they are excited or mad, you might want to be more interested, but all told would rather prefer to just pass by and forget about them. Talent-wise, Yi seems like he's an Asian Andrea Bargnani. The one difference might be that Bargnani influenced the game while Yi sounds like he lets the game comes to him.
The Fit: If you want a guy who could complement Al Jefferson on the offensive end, this is it. He's got the jumpers, hook shots, decent range, you name it. He is more of a face up big man who can put the ball on the floor. Who knows what could happen once Clifford Ray started working with him. Unfortunately for Yi, this isn't football and you have to play both ways. His defense is a problem. He doesn't have the size or strength to handle big men and lacks the quickness to really stay with SF's. He might be a nice weakside defender. Golden St. or Phoenix might be the best fits for him as he might be better off in a running offense (complemented by a Marion or Matt Barnes who can take the harder defensive assignment).
The Decision: Who knows? Right now, I'd bet that his ceiling is more Rashard Lewis than Dirk Nowitzki but he also might just be Vladimir Radmanovic. Of the players available at #5, he is the only one that I'd say has superstar potential (maybe an argument could be made for Conley Jr.) but he could be spectacularly mediocre. While his offensive arsenal is impressive, it is no guarantee that he is able to be as effective in the NBA. He's also probably the last guy Paul Pierce wants to see announced because Yi will likely take at least a year to get used to the NBA. All things considered, on the topic of Yi, I vote Nay.
Joakim Noah: Hyper, a winner, more talented overall than some people give him credit for, Noah is probably the safest bet in the eight players mentioned here. He will have a solid NBA career. Now, whether that career is Marcus Camby or Anderson Varejao is anyone's guess. The Fit: Defensively, he's the perfect fit alongside Jefferson except that he might not be able to handle the bigger stronger centers/PF. He'd be a terrific help defender though. His offense is a mess to look at but is somehow effective. He has a good handle for a PF/C and his shot, is as ugly as Acie Earl's (or even Acie Earl himself) yet it still seems to go in.
The Decision: You can't go wrong with Joakim Noah but you could find a lot more right than him. He's likely good but not great, a solid player that nobody will ever say should NEVER have gone over someone better but won't be as good as a few players who are drafted after him. He's a specialist but the C's need more than that. Julian Wright: Julian Wright is basically Jeff Green but better at everything (except shooting). He can defend, he's smart, he's athletic. The one problem is that he doesn't really seem all that much better than Jeff Green. Wright has all of the tools but never seems to really put them all together. The best comparison seems to be Boris Diaw of 2006. Of course, the problem with Boris Diaw 2006 and Boris Diaw 2005 wasn't Boris Diaw but rather the team he was on and how he was used. Wright might also have to be a PF/C type to get the most out of his talents.
The Fit: Wright could be an interesting fit next to Jefferson, especially if the C's groom him as a poor man's Andrei Kirilenko-type. The problem, again, is his shot. If he could improve his perimeter game, he'd be the perfect fit.
The Decision: While not thrilled about his perimeter game, I think Wright could be the best choice if we stay at #5. He may never be a superstar but he should be a nice fit with Pierce and Jefferson. Corey Brewer: Brewer is a lock-down defender with a knack for making plays on offense. I wouldn't go so far to call him an accomplished offensive player but he can more than hold his own there. He could be a rich man's Stacey Augmon. Still, there's just something that bugs me about him. I'm not going to knock him but his body control is fluid and reminds me of the herky jerky DeShawn Stevenson.
The Fit: The C's need defense and Brewer would likely start at shooting guard if drafted. While he can't create his own shot, all Gerald Green ever did was stand around the 3 point line, and that is basically the only way Brewer can hit them so it works perfectly.
The Decision: As much as I like Thaddeus Young, I think the choice at 5 comes down to Julian Wright or Corey Brewer, and I think Brewer's ability to guard shooting guards makes him the better fit. While the shooting ability of a Rondo/Brewer backcourt might be questionable, the defense, aggresiveness, and attitude would be close to perfect.
