Can Danny?

Some picks get hurt. Others are at the wrong place at the wrong time.  But there are a select few that, for one reason or another, seem like reaches at the time and look worse and worse as time goes by.  The NBA is a crapshoot and these are the guy who are all crap and no shoot. 

Honorable Mention: Fran Vazquez: 2005 #11 - Orlando Magic

On the bright side, at least Korolev shows up.  Orlando GM Otis Smith was given a rather rude awakening when, a day after selecting Vazquez in the lottery, the Spaniard went public with his desire to stay in Spain "until he is ready for the NBA".  Here's Smith trying to win over the confidence of Magic fans, and there's his first lotto pick admitting he isn't ready for the NBA.  It's been an embarrasment but there's a light at the end of the tunnel.  Fran has recently stated that he is ready to come to the NBA and that he'll be over as soon as his contract expires.  He's signed for two more years.  He'll only be 26 but after four years of waiting, nobody's even sure how good the guy is.

10: Yi Jianlian: 2007 #6 - Milwaukee Bucks

At least Fran has said he wants to play for Orlando. The Milwaukee Bucks stunned many by ignoring the warnings of Yi's management that they didn't want to play in Milwaukee. In a comment that is eerily familiar to Danny Ainge regarding Kevin Garnett, the Bucks GM Larry Harris dimissed the talk as just talk and also said he thought the word was coming from the managers and not Yi himself. A day after the draft, Jianlian skipped the press conference announcing his selection and now seems like he is going to have to be shipped out.  But more troubling than all of this is the fact that Jianlian made absolutely no sense for the Bucks.  His skill set is somewhat similar to Charlie Villenueva and he is the last guy a team that needed defense should have selected.  With Corey Brewer and Julian Wright sitting in the Green Room along with a potential star in Brandan Wright and the phone reportedly ringing with offers like Devin Harris from Dallas, Jianlian was an unnecessary gamble.

9: Luke Jackson: 2004 #10 - Cleveland Cavaliers

One of the most damaging obsessions of the last decade definitely has to be Jim Paxson's fervent belief that he had to add a shooter alongside LeBron James.  This tunnel vision led Paxson to reach for Jackson, an unathletic guard who seemed born to play the college game. Three years later, Jackson was traded to Boston for undrafted big man Dwayne Jones.  He then failed to make the team but did manage a ten day contract with the L.A. Clippers. With 59 games under his belt, Luke Jackson might have to call it a career.  Unfortunately for Cavs fans, Jim Paxson's obsession didn't stop at Luke.  Two days before the 2004 draft was the Charlotte Bobcats expansion draft.  Paxson swung a deal that he'd give the Bobcats a future first round pick if they would take and then trade to Cleveland Utah's Sasha Pavlovic.  Pavlovic wasn't an instant success so eight months later, Paxson dealt another first round pick for Jiri Welsch, who is now out of the league. While this focus on shooter seems excessive, it becomes downright laughably pathetic when you realize that the guy the Cavaliers left unprotected and lost in the Bobcats expansion draft was their previous year's 2nd round pick, the reigning NBA 3-point Champion Jason Kapono.

8. Yaroslav Korolev: 2005 #12 - Los Angeles Clippers

When Danny Granger and Gerald Green fell to #12, the Clippers were helpless to stop their slide.  The problem was that Elgin Baylor had already promised the pick to 18 year old Yaroslav Korolev.  The young Korolev was an exciting young talent who hadn't any experience against top level competition.  Two years later, he still hasn't had any experience.  Korolev has played a grand total of 170 minutes in his two years in the NBA. Some might say that it's too early to call the 20 year old Korolev a bust but the front office of the Clippers seem to disagree. In an unheard of move, the Clippers declined the third year option on Korolev's contract so the young man is now an unrestricted free agent. The Clippers claim that they are still confident in his skils and just want to sign him to a cheaper deal but when you give your lotto pick from two years ago a paycut, and he agrees to it, it's not looking like you made the wisest selection.

7. Rafael Araujo: 2004 #8 - Toronto Raptors

Hopefully, Danny isn't about to learn the lesson that Araujo taught Rob Babcock: Never let your star's threats alter your draft plan.  Sitting at the eight pick for the Raptors was a mountain of talent, most notably Al Jefferson, Andris Biedrins, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodlala.  Any of the three would have helped out the Raptors but Vince Carter was making noise and leaving so Babcock panicked and drafted the guy who seemed the most NBA ready.  By most NBA ready, we mean oldest.  Araujo was 23 years old but he was unathletic, needed to learn how to play defense and just wasn't all that good.  But he was 23 and a center, so Babcock took him with the Raptors' picks.  Half a season later, Vince Carter was in New Jersey.   

6. Kwame Brown: 2001 #1 - Washington Wizards

Kwame Brown might be the biggest bust of the decade but I wouldn't call him the worst pick.  He was a top rated high schooler and in the pre-draft workouts showed great determination and focus.  He wanted to go #1 and busted his ass to get to the top. Things seemed like they were going to go as planned during his first summer league in which he showed great skills and looked like the real deal.  Then Michael Jordan moved from the front office to the front lines and Kwame became the victim of the most unfriendly friendly fire.  Weeks after David Stern announced Brown was the #1 pick, Michael Jordan was labeling him a flaming faggot.  Maybe he was always a dog and never would have had what it takes to make it but there is no doubting that Michael Jordan broke Kwame Brown's spirit.  It wasn't all bad.  Kwame played well enough at the end of his contract to fool Mitch Kupchak into thinking that trading Caron Butler for him would be a good idea.

5. Desagana Diop: 2001 #8 - Desagana Diop

With 25 year old center Zydrunas Ilgauskas experiencing injury problems, Jim Paxson decided that he needed a center.  He swapped draft picks and ended up dealing Jamal Crawford for Chris Mihm in the 2000 draft. Mihm didn't exactly pan out so Paxson, never one to not obsess on a position, walked into the 2001 draft and seemed determined to add another big man. Nevermind that at this point in the Cavs history, their lineup was atrocious.  Their starting swingmen were Lamond Murray and Wesley Person. Sitting on the draft board at the time of the pick were Joe Johnson and Richard Jefferson. Paxson didn't care and passed them over to select high school big man Diop.   However, this pick apparently didn't quench Paxson's thirst for height.  He held the #20 pick in the draft and took Brendan Haywood but, apparently wanting a more seasoned big man, Paxson immediately dealt Haywood for Michael Doleac. While Paxson was sizing up his new big men, he might have missed the announcements of picks 25 through 31: Gerald Wallace, Sam Dalembert, Jamaal Tinsley, Tony Parker, Trenton Hassell, and Gilbert Arenas.  Adding insult to injury, Paxson finally broke from his height fetish and took a swingman in the second round.  He selected Jeff Trepagnier at #36.  Two picks later, the Detroit Pistons drated Mehmet Okur.

4. Nikiloz Tskitisvili: 2002 #5 - Denver Nuggets

Everyone loves a fad and after Pau Gasol stormed the NBA, European players were all the rage.  It didn't matter if the players were raw or obviously needed to stay in Europe for a couple of years, the hype drowned out common sense and the legend of Tskitishvili was born. The Nuggets were rebuilding and could afford to take a project instead of Caron Butler. #1 ranked high schooler Amare Stoudamire had apparently gotten a promise from Phoenix and wasn't working out for teams so why not opt for the guy you'd seen, right?     After taking Tskitishvili and Nene (at #8), the Nuggets filled out their frontcourt with small forward Vincent Yarborough at #33.  The frontcourt the Nuggets passed on that day was Amare, Caron, and #35 pick Carlos Boozer.

3. Chris Wilcox: 2002 #8 - Los Angeles Clippers

Chris Wilcox was a decent selection. He was a beast at Maryland and seemed like a definite talent.  What makes this one of the worst picks of the decade is the story behind it.  At the time of the draft, the Los Angeles Clippers and Cleveland Cavaliers were working out a trade for Andre Miller. The trade was all but done and, as the pick they were sending to Cleveland approached, the Clippers eagerly awaited a name from the Cavs to send to the Commissioner.  The time wore down and no name.  Nervous that time would elapse before they could send their pick in, the Clippers looked at the Cavs roster and assumed that, with Brian Skinner and an aging Ty Hill as their only power forwards, that the Cavs would select Chris Wilcox.  The Clippers made the call and sent in the card with Wilcox's name on it.  Wouldn't you know it, moments later, Jim Paxson calls up and tells the Clippers that the deal is a go and that Los Angeles should select Caron Butler for them.  Panic struck and the Cavs and Clips reps ran to the front but it was too late, the rules state that you can't change your pick once its sent in.  The draft concluded and everyone was stunned.  Why did the Cavaliers, whose best player was Andre Miller, select Dajuan Wagner?  And why did the Clippers, who a year earlier had traded their #2 pick for Elton Brand, opt for Chris Wilcox?  In the end, the deal for Miller was finally made with Darius Miles heading to Cleveland for 'Dre.  A disastrous season later, Andre Miller left L.A. as a free agent. Half a season after that, Darius Miles was unceremoniously dumped for Jeff Mcinnis and Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje.  And Chris Wilcox spent the first three and a half years of his career stuck behind Elton Brand.  Caron Butler came in third for Rookie of the Year and was one of the pieces that enabled Miami to land Shaquille O'Neal.  The man who won the Rookie of the Year?  Amare Stoudamire, who was selected the pick right after the bungled #8 pick.

2. Darko Milicic: 2003 #2 - Detroit Pistons

Darko might still pan out to be a good player but the bottom line is that the Detroit Pistons could be battling the San Antonio Spurs as the Dynasty of the late '00's.  Blame Larry Brown, Joe Dumars, Chad Ford, whoever, but the Pistons blew it on this pick and have been a man short over the last few years when it comes playoff time. 

1. Kedrick Brown: 2001 #11 - Boston Celtics

Kedrick Brown doesn't deserve to walk through life being known as a bust.  It wasn't his fault.  He played two years at junior college and was a fine but not highly sought after prospect.  But then he caught the eye of Celtics GM Chris Wallace, who had picks #10, #11, and #21 in the 2001 draft.  Much like the Trailblazers promise to Sebastian Telfair, the Brown promise went above and beyond the call of common sense.  When everyone heard rumors of a promise to Brown, the assumption was that it would be the Celtics pick at #21, not #11. But no, Chris Wallace, in order to keep Brown from working out for other teams, offered up the Celtics 2nd lottery pick for Brown. Making matters more awkward is that Joe Johnson fell in the Celtics' lap at #10 so they ended up taking both Johnson and Brown, despite already having Paul Pierce. While most fans were debating which much needed point guard the Celtics would be adding (Tony Parker vs. Jamaal Tinsley vs. Omar Cook), the Celtics drafted two more swingmen.  But the story doesn't end there.  Later, during Brown and Johnson's rookie season, Chris Wallace struck a deal with Phoenix for Rodney Rogers and Tony Delk.  The Suns were willing to take back either Johnson or Brown and let Wallace pick who he sent and who he kept.  Sticking with his initial inexplicable love, Wallace opted to send Joe Johnson to Phoenix and hold onto Kedrick Brown.  The choice was a disastrous one as Rodney Rogers would leave as a free agent at the end of that season while, two years later, Kedrick Brown would  be nothing more than filler in the deal for Ricky Davis and Chris Mihm.  Four years after Chris Wallace's promise, Kedrick Brown was out of the league.  But that's not even the worst part of it.  The worst part is that the reason the Celtics had the Nuggets pick that season was because they exercised their option on it.  They could have taken the 11th pick that year or waited until 2002 or 2003.  If Chris Wallace had shown a little patience, the 2003 draft would have featured the Celtics, and not the Nuggets, choosing between Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade in 2003. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

15. Seattle Supersonics: Jeff Green could be a good complement to Kevin Durant but there were better players avaiable at #5, and personally, I'm not sold on Green. The better move would have been to trade down for Philly's three picks because the prospects at #12 were as good as #5 and this team needs as many players as possible. Most troubling, though, is the fact that GM Sam Presti subscribes to the Billy Knight School of You Can't Get Enough 6'9 Players.  The Sonics are looking at a long season next year and Sonics fans should fear that Presti will opt for Michael Beasley over Derrick Rose and O.J. Mayo if the Sonics get the first pick.

14. Sacramento Kings: Spencer Hawes will eventually replace Brad Miller and the Kings will be looking at replacing Ron Artest or Mike Bibby when they pick at the top of the lottery next year. The Kings should have tried to use Bibby or Artest to move up in the draft.  They have to move one of them and the market for those two couldn't be any lower.

13. Minnesota Timberwolves: On the bright side, the teams that they could deal KG to all grabbed talented players in the draft so not getting the deal done before Draft Day might not be a disaster.  That being said, having to trade is a disaster and the cause of that disaster is the disaster they call a roster.  Corey Brewer is a solid pick but with Foye, McCants, and Brewer in the backcourt, I'm not sure who actually runs the offense.  Making a run at Ron Artest is just delaying the inevitable.  The Wolves need to trade KG. Until they do, you can't put them in last place.

12. Portland Trailblazers: Kevin Pritchard is quickly moving his name to the top of the GM rankings but the results won't come this year.  The team now has so much talent that it will be tough to settle on a rotation.  Josh McRoberts fell into the perfect situation as he was AAU teammates with Oden, who had nothing but praise for the fellow Dookie. Rudy Fernandez is a nice pick who will likely stay overseas for a couple of year while  Petteri Koponen and Taurean Green are solid point prospects.  The Blazers will likely be looking to move one of their PG's as they have Sergio Rodriguez and Jarrett Jack already on the roster and are supposedly looking to bring back Steve Blake.  Add in another lotto pick and with two expiring contracts in Steve Francis and Raef Lafrentz next offseason and it could be another busy Draft Day for the Blazers.  After that though, the team will likely be doing their best work in the playoffs.

11. Los Angeles Clippers: If Corey Maggette did steroids, he'd probably be Al Thornton.  While that might seem like an intriguing player, the problem is that coach Mike Dunleavy Sr. already dislikes Maggette and Thornton's hoops IQ is even worse.  Either he somehow learns to play the game over the summer or he'll probably be sitting next to Corey on the bench asking eachother why they are riding the pine behind Quinton Ross.  The Clippers addressed their point guard situation by adding Jared Jordan, who can run a team but isn't a great shooter and is a worse defender.  While there's nothing wrong with the players the Clippers took, they simply aren't the right for this coach and this team.

10. New Orleans Hornets: New Orleans needed a shooting guard and got Julian Wright, a tweener forward.  Wright struggled in workouts and one has to wonder if he will be able to handle the NBA.  The one strength he can rely on is his decision making, but the Hornets already have Chris Paul taking care of that.  They added a shooter in the second round but it's unlikely Adam Haluska does much but ride the pine, if he even makes the team. The Hornets need to address their shooting guard spot or they will find themselves right back in the lottery.

9. Los Angeles Lakers: I love the Javaris Crittenton pick.  He's a great point guard for the triangle and a top notch prospect.  The Kobe Conundrum, however, remains unsolved and I don't think this team is going to fair well with a disinterested Kobe.  Also not helping matter are Sun Yue and Marc Gasol, two players who I don't think will last in the NBA very long.

8. Memphis Grizzlies: No, this leap isn't based on the draft alone  The Grizz should enter the season with a healthy center and a coach that actually wants to be there.  Conley will be the motor that runs the impressive engine of Gasol, Mike Miller, and Rudy Gay.  The Grizz could make a couple more trades but even if they don't, this team should be good enough to regain their spot in the playoffs.

7. Golden State Warriors: I love the addition of Brandan Wright to the up-tempo Warriors and alongside Andis Biedrins in the paint.  Marco Belinelli should be a nice fit at the two spot as well but neither of these guys are going to be ready to contibute consistently in their first year so the Warriors should experience some growing pains but they still should be good enough to make the playoffs, as long as Baron stays healthy and Stephen Jackson stays relatively sane. 

6. Denver Nuggets: Denver had no picks and weren't able to solve any of their contract issues.  They are likely going to lose on of their key frontcourt players.  In the end, the Iverson trade was fun but it isn't going to help the Nuggets to the promised land.

5. Houston Rockets: When do you say enough is enough?  The team obviously isn't getting it done with T-Mac and Ming and adding Mike James and three second round talents isn't going to change that.  Also, the team has a whole at the PF spot with Chuck Hayes or second round pick Carl Landry being the top two candidates for the job.  Daryl Morey's first draft was a swing and a miss and he may be wondering if it's time to deal T-Mac during Draft Day 2008.

4. Utah Jazz: I don't care if Jerry Sloan hates rookies, Morris Almond should be the starting shooting guard next season.  And seeing as his competition right now is Gordon Giricek and Ronnie Brewer, it shouldn't be too hard.  Giricek is reportedly unpopular with his teammates while Brewer spent most of his rookie season in Jerry Sloan's doghouse.  Almond is a smart player and a good shooter, the two things the Jazz need from the 2 spot.  The key to the season, though, is Andrei Kirilenko or what they can get for him in a trade.

3. Dallas Mavericks: Glen Davis's low post scoring ability made more sense than Nick Fazekas, who is Dirk Nowitzki in cement shoes. They added to foreigners after that.  They made a play for the #6 pick but if they were trying to go after Yi Jianlian, I think they were lucky that the Bucks wouldn't bite.  The Mavs didn't improve much on draft day but they probably weren't expecting to anyway.

2. Phoenix Suns: The Suns draft day didn't make much sense.  Rudy Fernandez is a great shooting guard who might not come over this season.  Couldn't they have agree to take him and wait? The team also apparently shipped James Jones off in the Fernandez firesale so they could use a backup shooting guard.  Derrick Byars, Marcus Williams, and Gabe Pruitt all seem to make more sense than Alando Tucker.  Honestly, I would have taken a flyer on Josh McRoberts over Tucker. D.J. Strawberry is a guard who adds defense but  he's hardly the answer since he's might not even make the team.

1. San Antonio Spurs: Leave it to the Spurs to somehow snag two guys who were considered lottery picks at this time last year.  Tiago Splitter might not come over until next year but the Spurs can afford to wait.  He could be a nice addition to the Spurs frontcourt.  Marcus Williams has all the talent to be the heir apparent to Michael Finley's spot.  If he can get his head on straight, he'll be an absolute steal.  If not, he won't be any better than James White.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

For as good as this draft was, it didn't really shift the balance of power much, even at the bottom of divisions.  The Southeast, ilke the Atlantic and Central, didn't experience much of a shake-up after draft day.

1. Miami Heat: In my draft, I said that the Heat used the pick more on Dwayne Wade's future than their present.  That is basically what happened.  Daequan Cook is essentially the Gerald Green of this draft.  He's a raw, athletic, talented player who can shoot the lights out.  Cook has as much upside of most any player taken after #2 in the draft and could be a steal this late. 

2. Washington Wizards: The Dominic McGuire pick makes more sense than the Nick Young selection.  McGuire should fit in as a glue guy who can help the Wizards improve their defense. He can guard either forward spot or the shooting guard so he will be a great complement off the bench.  Nick Young, on the other hand, seems like a bad fit.  He was definitely the best prospect available but the Wizards don't need another shooter and being around Hibachi probably isn't going to help Nick's shaky shot selection. While he should be a useful player off the bench, Young needs to improve his defensive intensity if he ever wants to start alongside Gilbert and Caron Butler.

3. Orlando Magic: I don't like Nick Young in Washington, but he would have been a much better fit in Orlando.  Young, Rodney Stuckey, Marco Belinelli, Javaris Crittenton or even Jason Smith would have fit nicely on the Magic roster.  Instead, they have Darko Milicic, who four years in the league is still a huge question mark and is now looking like he good demand a fairly large contract.  I don't care what Chad Ford says, I'm not sure rolling the dice on Darko for big money is better than getting one of these aforementioned players on a rookie contract.

4. Atlanta Hawks: After all of the rumors, the Hawks did what everyone expected them to do.  They added the best player available and a much needed low post threat in Al Horford and grabbed a point guard at #11.  The big winner, of course, is Phoenix because the Hawks are still young and I can't see them getting too much better next year.  Still, it was a good draft for Billy Knight and he continues to build a talented team. Whether he'll be around in a couple of years when they start to come together is another question altogetherr.

5. Charlotte Bobcats: The Bobcats traded the #8 pick and turned down Sean May to the Nets for the #17 pick.  Instead of Brandan Wright and Javaris Crittenton, they stuck with May and added the underrated but not spectacular Jason Richardson.  They then reached for Jared Dudley with the #22 pick giving them a roster that currently doesn't have a legit shooter.  Matt Carroll is a free agent and Adam Morrison is terrible.  They need to make a run at Rashard Lewis or hope that Gerald Wallace re-signs and continues to improve his shot.  In the end, instead of improving a lot tomorrow, the Bobcats improved a little today and still will likely be lottery-bound.

Posted by SoulHonky at 02:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The toughest division in the East just got... more of the same.  Much like the Atlantic division, the Central squads all added players but didn't exactly fill needs. After draft night, not much has changed in the Middle America.  Going from worst to best, the division ranks:

5. Indiana Pacers: They didn't have a pick and didn't trade Jermaine O'Neal.  It's time to rebuild but I'm not sure anyone in the front office is willing to admit that yet.
 
4. Milwaukee Bucks: If Milwaukee is casting the villains of the next Bond movie, they're doing a great job: Yi, Charlie Villain, Bogut all look the part.  In terms of basketball, they are a pretty terrible mix since none of them can play defense.  Making matters worse is the fact that Yi Jianlian doesn't want to play in Milwaukee. Rolling the dice on Yi being good is one thing, rolling the dice on him even showing up is an absolute disaster. Yi doesn't fit and doesn't want to fit.  With Corey Brewer or Julian Wright on the board, the Jianlian selection was simply a mistake. Ramon Sessions at 56 might pan out but is hardly the answer at point guard.

3. Chicago Bulls: The Bulls add defense and youth to a team that needs a reliable post presence.  Joakim Noah was a solid pick because Ben Wallace isn't getting any younger and, perhaps more importantly, Noah was a player that the Grizzlies were intererested in.  Best case scenario, Noah is a trade asset that could bring Pau Gasol to Chicago.  Aaron Gray can score in the low post... in college.  He should make the team but might not ever get in.  If the rumors of  a Chris Duhon trade are true, it might have made more sense to grab Taurean Green or Zabian Dowdell than the short scoring guard JamesOn Curry.  And while it's still early in their careers, Ty Thomas and Jo Noah don't seem like the King's Ransom that people thought the Bulls were getting for Eddy Curry.

 2. Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavs didn't have any picks.

1. Detroit Pistons: Judging from their picks, the Pistons believe that Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell will be able to start filling in more for the Pistons aging frontcourt of Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess, and Antonio McDyess.  Johnson especially needs to pan out as a potential starter if the 'Stones playoff tour is going to continue without a hitch.  Rodney Stuckey could be the next Microwave and should be a solid backup guard.  Aaron Afflalo seems like a reach, especially over the likes of Marcus Williams or Derrick Byars, who seems like the perfect fit for the defensive-minded Bad Boys.  Sammy Mejia is a player with good size I'm not sure if he's a better choice than Zabian Dowdell, another defensive minded player who could have helped backup Chauncey Billips. 

The Bucks and Bulls had the best chances to make the right move to get them to the top of the division but neither team was able to pull anything off.  The Bulls still could make a big trade but the Bucks are looking at the prospect of being forced to trade their draft pick, ala Steve Francis demanding a trade from Vancouver.  The difference is that, in this case, the trade options are limited to a handful of teams which could hurt the chances of the Bucks getting equal value back.  With or without Yi, if the Bucks don't re-sign Mo Williams, they could find themselves sitting at the basement of the division.

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Atlantic Division:

While the Northwest division had the best drafts, it was the Atlantic division that made the most noise.  The division welcomes a headcase, a veteran, a veteran headcase, and three prospects that left a fan base shaking their heads. At the end of the day, though, I'm not sure if the balance of power really shifted all that much.  

1. New Jersey Nets: The healthy Nets are a better team than the Raptors so I'm going to keep him as the cream of the Atlantic crop.  Also, they didn't trade Richard Jefferson for Zach Randolph (a deal that now looks like a complete BS rumor seeing what Portland ended up dealing Zach for).  I thought Zach would have been a terrible fit for the Nets. They did, however, draft Sean Williams who, by all accounts, sounded like he was more of a headcase than a pothead. If Williams can clean his act up, he'll be a very nice defensive presence and should fit in as the trailer behind Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson.

2. Toronto Raptors: Didn't have a pick but I still think they are the #2 team in the division.

3. New York Knicks: Zach Randolph is a talented player but I don't see him fitting in at all.  He basically duplicates what Eddy Curry does with rebounding thrown in. His presence also could mean fewer minutes for David Lee, who is a better fit alongside Curry and is probably a better player overall.  This deal could work if Randolph would accept the 6th man role but who knows if that will happen. It's also unclear whether his attitude will be a distraction. The Knicks needed to add a consistent perimeter shooter and defense but ended up with neither. Draft pick Wilson Chandler has potential but is a project and won't help this year. In the end, I think this deal made for more headcase than headway and, as of now, I don't see the Knicks making the playoffs.

4. Boston Celtics: The Ray Allen trade definitely has some red flag but overall I am content with the deal.  Gabe Pruitt and Glen "Big Baby" Davis are nice additions but the Celtics still have to a lot left to prove.  If Al Jefferson continues on the pace from last year, the current C's team could battle for the second spot in the division but the team needs to solidify the point guard spot and improve defensively if they want to really make a run at the playoffs.  Like the Randolph trade, the Allen trade added talent but didn't answer any questions.  Danny Ainge's job is far from over as the Celtics still need to make a couple of moves to make this a truly successful offseason.

5. Philadelphia 76ers: Billy King wasn't willing to deal any players so he wasn't able to deal any picks. The Sixers might have taken a step back in the standings because they didn't match the Ray Allen and Zach Randolph deals but that might be to their benefit in the long run.  I love the Thaddeus Young pick and think, while he won't help out a ton this year, he will be a very good player in Philly.  While Young develops, Derrick Byars should be able to step right in and start alongside Andre Iguodala.  Byars could be an Aaron McKie type who will defend, do the little things, and be able to score when you need him to. Jason Smith is a nice complement to 'Dre, Iggy, and Sam Dalembert.  He's a high post big man who can knock down a jumper and will excel running the break with Miller. He probably isn't the answer at the starting four spot but should be a solid role player. I wouldn't rule out the Sixers being a surprise success but right now I think they are (and are better off) being the low man on the totem pole. While Billy King wasn't able to add a marquee veteran to his lineup, his team now has the potential to be a very good, and very entertainging, squad.

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In the end, the Nets are the winners in the short term because they added what could be the missing piece to their puzzle.  The Knicks and Celtics made moves to improve but still need more help if they are to contend.  In three years though, the draft that might matter the most if the Sixers as they added young talent that could become an impressive core by decade's end.

Posted by SoulHonky at 07:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

My board for #32 would be: Glen Davis, Daequan Cook, Nick Fazekas, Petteri Koponen and Marcus Williams. I'd hesitate to take Koponen over guys iike Taurean Green or Gabe Pruitt but, in the end, I think I'd roll the dice on the young Fin.  The sleeper would be Kyrylo Fesenko but to me he's just a name and a very brief scouting report so I'd probably shy away from the risk.

And, of course, that list goes out the window if someone unexpectedly falls from the first round. General Managers often make the mistake of sticking with the guy they had pegged for their second round pick and pass on the more talented slider. 

 

Posted by SoulHonky at 10:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)

So with the draft staring us right in the eyes, where do the Celtics stand?

Staying at #5, our options are looking like Jeff Green, Corey Brewer, and Yi Jianlian.  This would be the worst case scenario since none of those guys exactly get me all that fired up.  Brewer's defense is a plus but it's not like he's been locking down the greats of college basketball.  The only NBA draft pick he really defended this year was Derrick Byars, who had two solid games against Florida.  As for his offense, it has potential and is still very raw.  Right now, I'm not sure that he's all that much better of an NBA player than DeShawn Stevenson. Yi Jianlian is a complete unknown.  He seems more like Vlad Radmanvic or Brian Cook than Dirk or Pau. I woudn't bet against him but I'm also not willing to bet our draft pick that he's going to be the fifth best player in this draft.  Jeff Green seems like a poor man's Shane Battier.  While he's likely be an improvement over Ryan Gomes, I'm not sure how much of an improvement he's actually be.

Trading up for Horford is a possibility but I'd hate to give up a pick in next year's draft to do it.  I'd offer up a lot and maybe even agree to take back Brian Cardinal's crap contract but Horford, while the #3 prospect, isn't worth mortgaging the farm for. 

Trading down is the best move, especially since likely that one of our three options will still be around at #8.  If we move down to #12, I'm honestly more comfortable considering Javarris Crittenton, Thad Young, and Spencer Hawes as Green, Brewer, and Yi. If I was in charge, I'd be on the phone with Rod Higgins and Billy King as soon as Atlanta or Memphis selected Al Horford.

Then there are the much rumored deals.  Kevin Garnett is the prize but would cost us Al Jefferson.  I wouldn't be COMPLETELY opposed to that but if we make that trade, I also think we should go after a veteran PG.  If we could make a play for Sam Cassell and Corey Maggette (likely moving Rondo, Wally, and something to sweeten the deal), I'd be very interested in the Garnett deal and making a run at the Finals next year.  It just doesn't make sense to me to add a huge contract like KG and then have the fate of the team riding on a second year late first round point guard. 

Most other deals being floated around sound like nonsense although the Ray Allen deal is intriguing.  He's not a great fit but if all he costs is Wally, #5, and filler, he might be worth it.  At the very least, we would have a very nice trade asset at this next season's deadline along with Theo's expiring deal.  Ray's deal is one year longer than Wally's and if we could move Scal's contract, it really wouldn't affect our finances too too much.  The team would be in better standing talent-wise and trade-wise so I'd go for it. 

In the end, I'm afraid that we won't be making the huge moves that most people wanted or that our division rivals could pull off (The Nets might deal Richard Jefferson for Jermaine O'Neal and the Sixers have Andre Miller and three picks to offer up).  In the end, this year's draft will likely be one small step for the Celtics and not the giant leap that Celtics fans had been hoping for.

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

If there's one thing that this year's draft has more of than talent, it's general managers looking for veteran help. It's a mix that could open up the draft to a ton of trades. Then again, with no sure things after the top three or four, it's unclear how many teams will really be willing to deal a top notch talent for a pick. That being said, here's the second mock draft.

1. Portland Trailblazers: Greg Oden.
Oden is the obvious choice although Durant really fits the team more. Then again, do you really pass over Greg Oden because you have LaMarcus Aldridge and Zach Randolph? It's a close call but I still think you go with the franchise big man.

2. Seattle Supersonics: Kevin Durant.
It would be pure comedy if Durant went #1 because that means Oden lands in Seattle, the land of the first round big man. I can just see Saer Sene, Johan Petro, and Robert Swift sitting on a couch, shaking their heads as the pick is announced, saying together, "Man, now we're never going to play." Then Chris Wilcox wanders in, "Hey, what are you guys watching?" With Durant in Seattle, the Sonics should look to deal Ray Allen and begin rebuilding around Durant immediately. The team isn't going to compete next year so they would be better getting some young talent or picks for Allen.

 

3. Minnesota Timberwolves: Al Horford.
Kevin Garnett is heading to Phoenix but the headline thief is Amare Stoudamire, who is heading to the ATL. The Suns realize that while Amare is a sick talent, Marion is the guy that they can't replace. The Wolves get Josh Smith, #3, and the Hawks' 2008 first rounder and some expiring deals. McHale adds KG's replacement in Al Horford.

4. Portland Trailblazers (via Memphis Grizzlies): Mike Conley Jr.
Needing a point guard and a big body to team with Pau Gasol, the Grizzles look to Portland who would love to add Greg Oden's personal point guard. The Blazers have talent to deal and give the Grizzlies an offer they can't refuse: Zach Randolph, Jarrett Jack, Joel Pryzbilla, and a late 2nd round pick for #4, Hakim Warrick and Memphis' three worst contract (Brian Cardinal. Stromile Swift, and Damon Stoudamire). Could the Zach and Jack Show lead to headaches in Memphis? What does Jerry West care, he's out the door a few days after the draft. The Blazers add Conley to be the PG of the future.

5. Charlotte Bobcats (via Boston Celtics): Corey Brewer
KG? JO? Matrix? How about Primoz Brezec? Unable to make any other deals, the Celtics trade #5, #32, Telfair, and Allan Ray for #8, #22, and Brezec. The Bobcats move up in order draft Corey Brewer to boost their defense.

6. Philadelphia 76ers (via Milwaukee Bucks): Brandan Wright
The options for the Bucks are limited since two of their choices, Yi Jianlian and Joakim Noah refused to work out for them. GM Dave Babcock has already nixed Noah from the list although he still musing over taking Yi. Brandan Wright had a great workout but they already have Charlie Villenueva. In steps Billy King who offers his three first round picks to the Bucks, who gladly move down where they could get one of the small forwards who falls and possibly some bench depth. The 76ers add the power forward of the future, the talented but not ready for prime time Wright.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves: Joakim Noah
Kevin McHale might like Spencer Hawes better but the best way to reassure the fan base is to add the second half of the Florida frontcourt, who is also one of the more affable personalities in the draft. The Noah, Horford, Josh Smith trio should be a great young core to build around. Now if only one of the dozen combo guards could step up, the Wolves might actually be fun to watch next season.

8. Chicago Bulls (via Boston Celtics): Yi Jianlian
Trading down does nothing to make life easier for Ainge as his two choices, Jeff Green and Yi JIanlian are still there staring him in the face. Yi has the higher upside but Paul Pierce will likely flip if they take him. Green is his choice but he bluffs the Bulls into taking Brian Scalabrine for Chris Duhon and a swap of picks. The Bulls don't get the post presence they were looking for but add a player who could be a steal at #8.

9. Boston Celtics (via Chicago Bulls): Jeff Green
Green will probably be ready to help from Day 1 which should appease a increasingly cranky Paul Pierce. Personally, I'm not a huge believer in Green and wouldn't be happy with this pick but The Truth should be, whie not pleased, appeased by the Duhon, Brezec, and Green additions (with one more pick coming up later in the first round).

10. Sacramento Kings: Spencer Hawes
The rumor mill hasn't had a lot to say about Mike Bibby or Ron Artest, but I do think there's a good chance that one or both of them could be moved on Thursday. One guy who they probably won't be able to move is Brad Miller but that might not be so bad as he can mentor the young Hawes, who'll probably replace him in the starting lineup after this next season. A Hawes/Martin inside/outside combo isn't too shabby.

11. Atlanta Hawks: Acie Law
Javarris Crittenton is the better talent but Acie Law is ready to play in the NBA tomorrow and that is what Billy Knight could be looking for. Law should be able to step into the starting spot and hold it down alongside Joe Johnson, Marvin & Shelden Williams and Amare Stoudamire.

12. Miwaukee Bucks (via Philadelphia 76ers): Julian Wright
Wright might have struggled during the workouts but he is still the perfect fit for the Bucks. A small forward who can facilitate the offense and help out on defense, he is the perfect fit, if not the most sure-fire prospect.

13. New Orleans Hornets: Nick Young
Fool me once, shame on J.R. Smith. Fool me twice, and Byron Scott will have to sit down Jeff Bower for a talk. Derrick Byars missed his workout for the Hornets which might have solidified Young as the choice for the Hornets. His attitude is questionable but his talent seems to be unmistakable. The key, of course, is defense. If Young commits to it, he'll be fine. If not, he'll be committed to Scott's doghouse ala J.R. Smith before him.

14. Los Angeles Clippers: Javarris Crittenton
Crittenton will backup the aging alien Sam Cassell and if Shaun Livingston comes back, Crittenton could still handle the shooting guard spot, giving the Clippers great size in the backcourt. Granted, all of this is moot if Elton Brand opts out and leaves next year, but for now, this is a good choice with great upside.
 
15. Detroit Pistons: Al Thornton
If Thornton can handle the power forward, he could be the heir apparent to Rasheed Wallace's power forward position. The Pistons basically need youth and every position and while most people have Rodney Stuckey penned in as the pick here, Thornton is simply a better prospect. He might not be the brightest bulb so there is a chance that, although already 23, he will need a year to figure out the NBA game.

16. Washington Wizards: Thaddeus Young
Jason Smith is an interesting choice but the Wizards already have Oleksiy Pecherov, last year's #1 pick, coming overseas this year and they are expected to re-sign Aundray Blatche. Thaddeus Young is the best player available and, looking long term, might be a solid replacement for Antawn Jamison and a complement to Blatche. Unless Young bombed his workout in Washington, he should go here and the Wizards will have gotten themselves the steal of the draft.

17. Charlotte Bobcats (via New Jersey Nets): Jason Smith
The Nets like Sean May and the Bobcats seem somewhat fed up with his constant feeding of himself. May hasn't kept the weight off and has had two injury prone years. The injury prone part makes him a perfect fit in New Jersey, who ships the #17 for May. The Bobcats immediately replace May with the athletic Smith, who could turn out to be a great person to pair with Emeka Okafor (and Gerald Wallace, should he re-sign) .

18. Golden State Warriors: Josh McRoberts
The Warriors might be able to move up but they're likely going to have to give up more than they want to. The Warriors decide to opt for McRoberts, who could be the perfect fit for their running offense. A Biedrins/McRoberts frontcourt could be interesting in the future.

19. Los Angeles Lakers: Rodney Stuckey
If Kobe is gone, Stuckey gives the Lakers a scorer. If Kobe stay, Stuckey is someone who can help shoulder the scoring load and also should be solid enough to handle the point guard spot in the triangle alongside Kobe (who's going to be handling the ball the whole time anyway). A Stuckey/Kobe combo should keep the Staples Center scorekeepers busy.

20. Miami Heat: Gabe Pruitt
The Heat are desperate for help at the point guard and Pruitt's defense and shooting ability should get him on the floor early and often in his rookie season. Questions about his ability to run the point might not have to be answered as Dwyane Wade will run the show more often than not.

21. Milwaukee Bucks (via 76ers): Sean Williams
The Bucks gambled on Ruben Patterson and it paid off. Ruben had a great year for the Bucks last season and seemed like a solid citizen. Larry Harris will push his luck and bring in the problematic pothead Williams to help shore up the defense.

22. Boston Celtics (via Bobcats): Glen Davis
"Big Baby" is a true power forward and the kind of player who could be an absolute steal or an absolute Tractor Traylor-type bust. With the second pick, the Celtics can afford to take a risk on Davis. Tiago Splitter is a consideration, as are some of the guards, but the C's need size and they need it now, so Davis is the choice. It also helps that Davis has a very likable personality which should help if things get rough again this season.

23. New York Knicks: Daequan Cook
Wilson Chandler is rumored to have a promise but Cook would be the real prize. Isiah Thomas said he was looking for a shooter and that is Cook's specialty. Cook's potential is as high as most people who went in the lottery so this could be another David Lee level gem for Zeke.

24. Phoenix Suns: Nick Fazekas
The Suns get a shooting big man who can work alongside Garnett and Diaw. He isn't someone who is going to bang with the bigger centers or power forwards but the Suns add his skill and can get a banger with their later pick.

25. Utah Jazz: Derrick Byars
Byars could start from day one as he has the defensive presence and the attitude that the Jazz love. His shot is sporadic but he is good enough and should excel in knocking down Carlos Boozer or Deron Williams' kickouts.

26. Houston Rockets: Marco Belinelli
The run on power forwards really killed the Rockets who were expecting at least one of the middle level big men to fall their way. Tiago Splitter is an option but he can't be signed until 2008. Rudy Fernandez might be the best player available but he might sign with a team overseas and not be in the NBA next year. The Rockets settle for Belinelli, who would give the Rox a shooter off the bench and could fit into the Drazen Petrovic role in Rick Adelman's offense.

27. Detroit Pistons: Taurean Green
The Pistons need a backup point guard and Green is a good defender and has experience running an offense filled with talented yet varied players.

28. San Antonio Spurs: Rudy Fernandez
The Spurs need a big man like Spliiter but they take Fernandez when he falls this far. They can afford to wait for him but if he knows he's coming to the World Champions, Fernandez might be forego the foreign contract and come to America.
 
29. Phoenix Suns: Tiago Splitter
The Suns need a big man to play some defense which is what Splitter does. They also don't need anymore contract this year which Splitter won't be. Phoenix gladly waits a year for Splitter to come over.

30. Milwaukee Bucks (via 76ers): Petteri Koponen
The Bucks need a PG. Koponen could be the best of the bunch although he likely won't be ready to help too much next season. Still, none of the other point guards match his potential so he makes the most sense at this point in the draft.

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Finally, we can bring close the lengthy legend of the much traveled Lakers/Cavs picks. The Marion deal shall include the #24 pick and Marcus Banks which will bring the saga full circle.

Partly because they overpaid Marcus Banks, the Phoenix Suns need to dump salary, so they send us (amongst others) Banks and the 24th pick, a pick the Suns received from us for last year's 21st pick, a pick that the Suns had acquired from Atlanta (for ex-Celtics Joe Johnson) who had gotten it from us (when we re-acquired Antoine Walker, whom we earlier had traded for, amongst others, Jiri Welsch, whom we traded for the 24th pick that we are now re-acquiring). And the only reason we got the pick in the first place was because Gary Payton refused to show up, a move that also let us retain Marcus Banks, whose option we didn't pick up which led him to be overpaid by the Phoenix Suns.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

While many teams are tight-lipped about their workouts and don't let much info out, the Wizards and Timberwolves do a great job for their fans by delivering little workout videos for the draftniks amongst us. It's not much but even the slightest glimpses of the workouts or unknown commodities like Marco Belinelli are interesting to check out. The Wolves Draft Center has the best presentation, showing just a little less footage but being edited very well (as opposed to the local news style of the Wizards). The Bucks also have some decent video while the Heats little-clips aren't all that impressive. The Suns have some video but for some of their "workout videos", all they have is an unedited interview with one of the prospects.

The Knicks page on perimeter players is pretty interesting. They claimed that Jeff Green should be the #3 pick, ranked their top 10 perimeter players and then added one person "OF POSSIBLE KNICKS INTEREST". That, of course, was Wilson Chandler, the SF from DePaul who supposedly has a promise from Isiah Thomas.

Orlando doesn't have a first round pick but still stuck a streaming ad on their page which makes them the most annoying. The Nuggets front page overlooks the draft in favor of Allen Iverson's jersey sales while the Pacers are hyping up the Indy WNBA team, probably hoping that people will overlook that Atlanta will be drafting a very talented player with the pick the Pacers dealt for Al Harrington.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

While watching The West Wing a couple of nights ago, I heard a story that basically summed up how I feel about the idea that Celtics fans should hold out hope that a miracle will come and save the franchise. It was the story of the Man Who Lived by the River (not to be confused with the guy who lives in a van down by the river). The story went like this:

You know, you remind me of the man that lived by the river. He heard a radio report that the river was going to rush up and flood the town. And that all the residents should evacuate their homes. But the man said, 'I'm religious. I pray. God loves me. God will save me.'
The waters rose up. A guy in a row boat came along and he shouted, 'Hey, hey you! You in there. The town is flooding. Let me take you to safety.' But the man shouted back, 'I'm religious. I pray. God loves me. God will save me.'
A helicopter was hovering overhead. And a guy with a megaphone shouted, 'Hey you, you down there. The town is flooding. Let me drop this ladder and I'll take you to safety.' But the man shouted back that he was religious, that he prayed, that God loved him and that God will take him to safety.
Well... the man drowned.
And standing at the gates of St. Peter, he demanded an audience with God. 'Lord,' he said, 'I'm a religious man, I pray. I thought you loved me. Why did this happen?'
God said, 'I sent you a radio report, a helicopter, and a guy in a rowboat. What the hell are you doing here?'

This is essentially how I feel about the Celtics. Each year begins with the promise of trades to come and each year ends with the hope that maybe Wally will be healthy next season. Stick to the plan that some great trade will appear; a savior will emerge from nowhere. Every year, more names flood the imagination of Celtics fans everywhere: Baron Davis. Carlos Boozer. Allen Iverson. Pau Gasol. Kevin Garnett. Yet Sebastian Telfair is the only person who's walked through that door.

But the rumors persist and the fandom keeps praying. Steve Bulpett and others won't let the Garnett deal die. Chad Ford, a constant devil who wields rumors like Satan does temptation, is back on our shoulder, whispering in our ear that Pau Gasol could be had for as little as Theo Ratliff, Delonte West, and the #5 pick. Of course, like all rumors, common sense questions muddy the picture: why would Gasol be given away for so little (and isn't the deal more for Horford, who would be gone by #5?); if the issue is money, wouldn't they force Brian Cardinal on us (just like the Wolves did with Jaric); nevermind that other teams could come up with better offers. Yet still, the empty wishes are enough to capture the hearts and minds of the faithful.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope that, finally, something will break in favor of the Celtics. I hope that, to steal from The West Wing again, I'm allowing my own demons to shout down my better angels. But personally, I think all of this hope for a blockbuster is more like the first quote, or like a quote from another Aaron Sorkin script, "The American President". Celtics fans want to win, they want to believe their team is getting closer to contending, and...

"They're so thirsty for it they'll crawl through the desert toward a mirage, and when they discover there's no water, they'll drink the sand.

Personally, that is what I think Ford, Stein, Bulpett and the other rumor-mongers have to offer; the promise of water and a glass full of sand.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Trying to set the record for most times changing uniforms without coming up with anything good, the Atlanta Hawks have unveiled yet another new look. This year, they've gone one step further than usual by suddenly changing their team color to blue. Their logo looks like a mix between the Patriots' logo and the latest Louisville cardinal.

And while it might be a stretch, I think the fact that they chose Josh Smith to be the model for their new uni's could mean that they aren't looking to deal him.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Oden and Durant won't fall to #5. Al Horford is a no-brainer if he falls there and we've already addressed The Brandan Wright Situation. Most likely, this foursome will be off the board when it comes time for the Celtics to make there selection, so let's look at the top prospects from whom we'll be choosing.

Mike Conley Jr.: As good as Rajon Rondo is, Mike Conley Jr. is much better. The one edge Rondo has is that he is more tuned in on defense but that's not to say Conley is a slouch. Conley is the epitome of a pure point guard and should join TJ Ford and Chris Paul as one of the top little men in the NBA. Some people will bring up the fact that he is only 6'1 but talent and athleticism overcomes lack of height so that should be a problem. What could be more of an issue is Conley Jr's shot. While not nearly as bad as Rondo's, Conley doesn't have three point range and, while he seems to knock them down in crunch time, doesn't have the most reliable medium range shot either.
The Fit: Conley's questionable shot shouldn't be a huge issue for most teams but it is an issue for the Celtics because it's unlikely that the team could really play Rondo and Conley on the court together. A point guard like Javaris Crittenton has the size and shot to complement Rajon but Conley would be more of a replacement.
The Decision: Conley is a very unlikely choice for the Celtics. The draft can offer similarly ranked prospects that fill a need more. The final nail in the coffin is the fact that next year's draft could be a point guard bonanza so there's no need to force a pick for Mike Jr.

Spencer Hawes : A man of a million moves, Hawes could be the most gifted offensive big man in the draft. Whether he can hang on defense is another question. Hawes isn't a sloth but he's isn't shutting anyone down either.
The Fit: The Celtics need a big man and Spencer could operate on the high post while Jefferson mans the paint but the lack of defense is a bit problematic.
The Decision: Hawes could be a very good #3 star, perhaps like Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but the Celtics might be better adding a defensive stalwart or a more athletic power forward instead.

Jeff Green: Green probably has the highest bust potential of any of the players on this list. It's not that he has one weakness as much as it is that he doesn't have one strength. He's a good athlete but might not be able to defend quicker small forwards. He can score in the post but isn't a legit post threat. He can play on the perimeter but his shot isn't consistent. He seems like a suburban man's Shane Battier to me.
The Fit: While Green might have the most bust potential, he might also be the guy that would feel most comfortable in the Celtics system, since the PF often finds himself standing at the top of the perimeter, setting up the offense. If he can handle the PF, he wouldn't be a terrible person to put alongside Jefferson but as long as Rondo is the point guard, the C's will most likely need someone with an outside shot at the 3.
The Decision: Ainge could go for Green and he wouldn't be a bad pick. At the same time, I don't see him being a player that makes us any better.

Yi Jianlian: My reaction to Yi Jianlian is somewhat similar to seeing someone yelling in Chinese while you walk down the street. You have no idea what they are saying, you don't know if they are excited or mad, you might want to be more interested, but all told would rather prefer to just pass by and forget about them. Talent-wise, Yi seems like he's an Asian Andrea Bargnani. The one difference might be that Bargnani influenced the game while Yi sounds like he lets the game comes to him.
The Fit: If you want a guy who could complement Al Jefferson on the offensive end, this is it. He's got the jumpers, hook shots, decent range, you name it. He is more of a face up big man who can put the ball on the floor. Who knows what could happen once Clifford Ray started working with him. Unfortunately for Yi, this isn't football and you have to play both ways. His defense is a problem. He doesn't have the size or strength to handle big men and lacks the quickness to really stay with SF's. He might be a nice weakside defender. Golden St. or Phoenix might be the best fits for him as he might be better off in a running offense (complemented by a Marion or Matt Barnes who can take the harder defensive assignment).
The Decision: Who knows? Right now, I'd bet that his ceiling is more Rashard Lewis than Dirk Nowitzki but he also might just be Vladimir Radmanovic. Of the players available at #5, he is the only one that I'd say has superstar potential (maybe an argument could be made for Conley Jr.) but he could be spectacularly mediocre. While his offensive arsenal is impressive, it is no guarantee that he is able to be as effective in the NBA. He's also probably the last guy Paul Pierce wants to see announced because Yi will likely take at least a year to get used to the NBA. All things considered, on the topic of Yi, I vote Nay.

Joakim Noah: Hyper, a winner, more talented overall than some people give him credit for, Noah is probably the safest bet in the eight players mentioned here. He will have a solid NBA career. Now, whether that career is Marcus Camby or Anderson Varejao is anyone's guess.
The Fit: Defensively, he's the perfect fit alongside Jefferson except that he might not be able to handle the bigger stronger centers/PF. He'd be a terrific help defender though. His offense is a mess to look at but is somehow effective. He has a good handle for a PF/C and his shot, is as ugly as Acie Earl's (or even Acie Earl himself) yet it still seems to go in.
The Decision: You can't go wrong with Joakim Noah but you could find a lot more right than him. He's likely good but not great, a solid player that nobody will ever say should NEVER have gone over someone better but won't be as good as a few players who are drafted after him. He's a specialist but the C's need more than that.

Julian Wright: Julian Wright is basically Jeff Green but better at everything (except shooting). He can defend, he's smart, he's athletic. The one problem is that he doesn't really seem all that much better than Jeff Green. Wright has all of the tools but never seems to really put them all together. The best comparison seems to be Boris Diaw of 2006. Of course, the problem with Boris Diaw 2006 and Boris Diaw 2005 wasn't Boris Diaw but rather the team he was on and how he was used. Wright might also have to be a PF/C type to get the most out of his talents.
The Fit: Wright could be an interesting fit next to Jefferson, especially if the C's groom him as a poor man's Andrei Kirilenko-type. The problem, again, is his shot. If he could improve his perimeter game, he'd be the perfect fit.
The Decision: While not thrilled about his perimeter game, I think Wright could be the best choice if we stay at #5. He may never be a superstar but he should be a nice fit with Pierce and Jefferson.

Corey Brewer: Brewer is a lock-down defender with a knack for making plays on offense. I wouldn't go so far to call him an accomplished offensive player but he can more than hold his own there. He could be a rich man's Stacey Augmon. Still, there's just something that bugs me about him. I'm not going to knock him but his body control is fluid and reminds me of the herky jerky DeShawn Stevenson.
The Fit: The C's need defense and Brewer would likely start at shooting guard if drafted. While he can't create his own shot, all Gerald Green ever did was stand around the 3 point line, and that is basically the only way Brewer can hit them so it works perfectly.
The Decision: As much as I like Thaddeus Young, I think the choice at 5 comes down to Julian Wright or Corey Brewer, and I think Brewer's ability to guard shooting guards makes him the better fit. While the shooting ability of a Rondo/Brewer backcourt might be questionable, the defense, aggresiveness, and attitude would be close to perfect.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

1. Portland Trailblazers: Greg Oden.
Obviously.

2. Seattle Supersonics: Kevin Durant.
His defense and playmaking skills weren't on display in college so there are still some question marks about just how great he will be but still, he is the obvious choice.

3. Sacramento Kings via Atlanta Hawks: Al Horford.
The biggest issue facing Hawks fans isn't just that Billy Knight is their GM, it's that Billy Knight is their GM and he needs the team to win immeidately to keep his job. Unfortunately for Billy, most impact players are going to cost more than he can offer. Josh Smith is a big talent and a bigger headcase. Marvin Williams, Shelden Williams, Josh Childress? Limited trade value if any. In the end, the only deal he might be able to pull off is the #3, Zaza Pachulia, and the expiring contracts of Ty Lue and Lo Wright for Mike Bibby and the #10 pick. With the pick, the Kings select Al Horford to give them the quality PF that they've been lacking since they dealt Chris Webber.

4. Philadelphia 76ers via Memphis Grizzlies: Brandan Wright
Heart-broken over missing out on Horford and unwilling to lower their demands for Pau Gasol, the Grizzlies decide not to reach for Mike Conley and instead move Brian Cardinal's deal and the #4 for three expiring deals (Kevin Ollie, Shavlik Randolph, Bobby Jones) and three picks (#12, #24, and #30 picks). The 76ers add the quality PF that they've been lacking since even before they dealt for Chris Webber.

5. Charlotte Bobcats via Boston Celtics: Corey Brewer
Heart-broken over missing out on Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, the Celtics deal the pick, along with Brian Scalabrine and the #32 pick, to Charlotte for the #8, #22, and Primoz Brezec. The Bobcats add defensive help in Brewer, who should be able to complement Matt Carroll and help new coach Sam Vincent from ever having to play Adam Morrison.

6. Milwaukee Bucks: Julian Wright
Heart-broken over missing out on Corey Brewer and Al Horford, the Bucks (who plan on breaking the Pistons' heart by signing free agent point guard Chauncey Billups) select Julian Wright so they won't have to break Charlie Villenueva's heart by telling him that he has to start playing defense.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves: Spencer Hawes
After McHale botches the KG trade, Hawes will remind Minnesota fans of Christian Laettner, a talented-yet-not-great white guy leading an expansion team.

8. Boston Celtics: Thaddeus Young
Doc probably wants his son's former teammate Jeff Green. Pierce probably wants them to trade the pick for veteran talent. Ainge probably wants Yi or Al Thornton. But I'd going with the athletic, intelligent, talented 18 year old.

9. Golden State Warriors: Yi Jianlian via Chicago Bulls
KOBE FALLOUT! The principals in the deal are: the Bulls get Kobe, the Lakers get Ben Gordon, Jason Richardson, Ty Thomas, and the Warriors (who need to dump salary to re-sign Biedrins and Ellis) deal Richardson and their later pick for Kwame Brown's expiring contract and the #9 pick. They add Jianlian who could be a great complement to Andris Biedrins in the frontcourt.

10. Atlanta Hawks via Sacramento Kings: Joakim Noah
With Mike Bibby in Hotlanta, starting center is now the greatest need for the Hawks and they boost their defense by adding Noah.

11. Atlanta Hawks: Javaris Crittenton
Billy Knight passed over Chris Duhon in favor of Royal Ivey and I think the same thinking comes into play here. Conley is a short point guard who can't shoot that well. Crittenton is a tall point guard who can score and could become a great complement to Joe Johnson. He's a project but the Hawks can afford that with Bibby holding down the fort. And he went to Georgia Tech which could convince a couple of people to actually attend a Hawks game this year. All things aside from talent considered, it makes sense.

12. Memphis Grizzlies: Mike Conley Jr.
Billy Knight taketh away, Billy Knight giveth. The Grizz couldn't move up to get Horford but Knight lets Mike Conley Jr. fall into their laps. If Marc Iavaroni wants to run the Suns-style offense in Memphis, he needs a top point guard which Conley could be.

13. New Orleans Hornets: Derrick Byars
The Hornets reach on Byars because of his defense, attitude, and readiness to play from Day 1. The team needs someone to help defend swingmen and Jeff Green might struggle to stay with quick small forwards, let alone shooting guards. Nick Young has talent but is very similar to J.R. Smith and might just end up in Byron Scott's doghouse so why invite the headache?

14. Los Angeles Clippers: Jeff Green
Mike Dunleavy Sr. gets a player with talent, athleticism, and a high hoops IQ. He's the best player available but that's not going to get the Clippers into the playoffs.

15. Detroit Pistons: Acie Law IV
While some will see this as a sign that the Pistons might not retain Chauncey Billups, the move is actually made because they are keeping him. If Detroit is going to invest long term, big money in Chauncey, they better find someone to spell him so he doesn't wear down midway through his new contract.

16. Washington Wizards: Tiago Splitter
The Wizards need size and defense and Splitter could become Arenas's Anderson Varejao. The froncourt of Splitter, Etan Thomas, Oleksiy Pecherov, and Darius Songaila is nicknamed the U.N., although the Wizards hope it's because of the mixed nationalities and not because they can't really stop anyone from mounting an attack.

17. New Jersey Nets: Al Thornton
Ainge cringes when a guy he loved falls to the Nets. Thornton could be a great pick as long as Kidd stays around. Kidd could make the 23 year old rookie look as good as he did Kenyon Martin. But if Kidd leaves, Thornton will end up looking absolutely lost, almost like a muscular Gerald Green.

18. Los Angeles Lakers via Golden State: Josh McRoberts
The Lakers have a couple of picks in a row so they roll the dice and add a talented yet underachieving PF alongside Bynum.

19. Los Angeles Lakers: Nick Young
The Lakers grab the best player available and placate the L.A. fans by grabbing a Trojan. Sportswriters across America search for the cleanest way of making a Trojan/Getting Fucked By Kobe joke.

20. Miami Heat: Petteri Koponen
The Heat realize that they need help at point guard but also realize that nobody at this juncture of the draft is going to be able to really step in and help immediately. They start investing in Dwyane Wade's future and grab the talented Finnish lead guard.

21. Memphis Grizzlies: Sean Williams
It's a roll of the dice but the Grizzlies wanted a big body to team with Pau Gasol and Sean Williams could be the perfect fit. A defensive monster, personal issues are why Williams is going to sink in the draft. The Grizzlies have a cautionary tale in Stromile Swift sitting on their bench and a former Jailblazer who could try to help Williams reform, or at least teach him how to balance smoking pot with a solid NBA career.

22. Boston Celtics: Jason Smith
A superb athlete, Smith could benefit greatly from working with Clifford Ray (and trying to guard Al Jefferson everyday in practice). A wild card, he could pan out to be a very nice complement to Perk and Big Al or he could live down to the inevitable Michael Smith comparisons.

23. New York Knicks: Daequan Cook
Cook has the most upside and the Knicks roster is so chock full of contracts that its unlikely anybody drafted this late would break the lineup in their first year anyway. Stuckey is an option but the last thing the Knicks need is an undersized, scoring minded 2 guard. The Knicks supposedly have a promise out to Wilson Chandler but Cook is probably a better guy to roll the dice on.

24. Phoenix Suns: Marco Belinelli
Belinelli is a young combo guard who could be a perfect complement to Leandro Barbosa in a few years.

25. Utah Jazz: Rodney Stuckey
Deron Williams has enough size to potentially defend shooting guards so he and Stuckey could work together perfectly. If Ronnie Brewer can emerge as a defensive stopper at the 3, the Jazz could have one hell of a backcourt for the future.

26. Houston Rockets: Glen "Big Baby" Davis
When trading Juwan Howard leaves a void at the power forward spot, you know you're hurting at the position. Davis could be the next Robert Traylor but he is worth the risk this late in the draft.

27. Detroit Pistons: Rudy Fernandez
International players haven't exactly panned out for the Pistons but Fernandez will help add scoring off the bench.

28. San Antonio Spurs: Morris Almond
The Spurs usually grab some foreign guy who will spend the next three years overseas but the team could use some depth next season, especially at the swingspots. Morris Almond seems like a good replacement for the aging Brent Barry.

29. Phoenix Suns: Kyrylo Fesenko
The Suns either sell this pick or get someone who won't come overseas for a few years. They go with the latter and get the Chad Ford special, a big man nobody really knows anything about.

30. Memphis Grizzlies: Marcus Williams
After scoring help at the point and in the paint with their first two picks, the Grizzlies take a flyer on Marcus Williams who was supposed to be a lotto pick before he had a disappointing college season.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Kevin Garnett rumors are flying and I, for one, am nervous. The current deals have us giving up the #5 and Al Jefferson (among others) for KG and a bad contract (say, Troy Hudson or Marko Jaric). While KG is great, the problem is that he could opt out of his contract next year which would leave the Celtics with a bad contract for their prized young talent and the highest pick they've had in decades. The risk was simply too high and seemed to nix the deal. But then old friend Chad Ford came up with a rumor that could help the C's quest for KG. Ford stated that the going rumor was that the Clippers might deal Corey Maggette and the #14 pick for Boris Diaw, the #24 and #29 picks. Now Diaw seemed to devolve a bit this year, gaining weight right after signing a 5 year, 45 million dollar contract. If the Clippers were considering that deal, wouldn't they find Wally (shorter deal) and young player and a better pick even more enticing? Combining this with the KG offer, I came up with:

The Clippers deal Maggette, Cassell, #14 for Wally, Scalabrine, West, and #7
The Wolves deal Garnett and #14 for Big Al, Maggette, Theo, and #5
The Celtics deal Wally, Theo, Scalabrine, Jefferson, West, #5 for Garnett, Cassell, #14
(Or you could have LA getting Telfair and Minny getting West. You could replace West with Gerald but I like that Green's rookie contract has an extra year on it.)

- The Wolves get more than they ever could have imagined for Kevin Garnett.

- The Clippers move up where they could grab a top prospect, perhaps replacing Cassell (and the injured Shaun Livingston) with Mike Conley Jr. They get a couple of heady players who would make Mike Dunleavy Sr. happy and they also add a young talent like West.

- The Celtics add a top player in Kevin Garnett and move down in the draft but are still in range to get the left over top prosect be it Thaddeus Young, Julian Wright, or Al Thornton. Cassell mans the point while Rondo gets one more year to learn the position. The risk of KG leaving still remains but at least this deal clear out all of our bad contract so we could have cap space to make a run at a top free agent.

Personally, I'm not a huge fan of dealing Big Al for Garnett (and would probably prefer getting younger and dealing Pierce for some younger talent) but if we are going to go for it now, this is the type of deal I would hope Ainge could work out.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Brandan Wright is widely considered to be the third or fourth best talent in this draft yet he might be available at the Celtics #5 pick. He has All-Star potential and could be a franchise big man. That being said, he also doesn't seem to have the aggressive attitude you would want from a player of his caliber and he seems to coast through games. In the end, he could be the next great big man (especially under the tutelage of Clifford Ray) or he could be Drew Gooden (or worse, Donyell Marshall without much range on his shot). So if he falls in our laps, do we take him and consider ourselves lucky to grab a rare talent or do we look to move him?

Granted, moving him is easier said than done. The most likely trade partners are the 76ers, Atlanta (Billy Knight is a huge fan) and Charlotte (they are looking for post scoring and the 'Cats can't get enough of UNC grads) but finding the right deal might be hard to pull off.

The first option is just to deal the #5 for multiple picks. The Bobcats could offer #8 and #22. The Sixers have #12, #21, #30. The two problems here are that you are adding nothing but youth (which isn't going to thrill Paul Pierce) and none of the other players in the draft are more of a sure thing than Wright. In the end, you are dealing a top ranked question mark for lower ranked question marks. On the bright side, the law of averages is on your side and the odds of you picking a winner will be a bit better if you have more chances. These deals are fine, especially if the C's brass isn't sold on Wright, but if you think he's the real deal, you'd probably want something more.

"More" usually means players than can help out immediately but once you start adding them into the mix, the luxury tax comes into play. Unless the Celtics can dump Wally Szczerbiak, they won't be able to take on any players who become free agents after next season. Guys like Gerald Wallace or Josh Smith might be interesting targets but we would never be able to re-sign them and stay under the luxury tax. Marvin Williams and Raymond Felton would work but I doubt their teams are willing to deal them quite yet while I sincerely hope the Celtics wouldn't be interested in Shelden Williams or Adam Morrison.
The obvious reply is "Well, just add Wally to the deal for expiring deals/cap space." Unfortunately, if you add Wally, you are going to have to face diminished returns. The Bobcats aren't going to give us the #8 and Gerald Wallace AND take on our worst contract. If the Hawks agree to that sort of deal (they have Ty Lue and Lo Wright's expiring deals), then you really have to start to wonder just how much of a headcase Josh Smith is if they are giving him away like that. Odds are that adding Wally means you are taking back a worse player, like Sean May or Josh Childress. This is essentially what we did last year and I can't say that I'm thrilled with the prospect of hisory repeating itself. The Bulls might throw their hat into the ring to get Yi Jianlian but would they offer more than the #9 and Thabo Sefalosha? But is Thabo really enough to give up Wright?
One deal that could be a possibility is Wally and #5 for Mike Bibby and #10. The Celtics improve upon Wally and drop five spots where they could still get a very good prospect. If Wright or Horford don't fall to #5, I would consider this deal but the idea of giving up a shot at Wright (and likely ending up with Ainge's fave Al Thornton) for the swap of declining players isn't thrilling. Also, I'm not sure what interest the Kings would have in Wally since they already have Kevin Martin and Ron Artest at the swing spots. In the end, some deals is going to have to come out of nowhere to really offer the Celtics a legit return for the potential of Brandan Wright. So while my first choice would be to work a deal with Wright but if the best we're getting is #8 and #22 or Josh Childress and #11, the Celtics might have to roll the dice on Brandan's potential.

Posted by SoulHonky at 11:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The San Antonio Spurs dominated the playoffs but what was more upsetting than watching them run over their competition was the passive way they want about it. While everyone lauds them as champions, they play most of their games as if they are disinterested. They were just dominant enough so that you knew they would win but they'd never blow someone out of the water and embarrass them. They'd try just enough in the first half to stay close and then play just good enough in the end to close the opponent out. While people bemoan the dominance, the real issue is the lack of pizazz they add to the proceedings. 1983's playoffs were even more lopsided but one proclamation, Moses Malone's "Fo, Fo, Fo" (predicting three sweeps en route to the title) made it a memorable post-season.

And it's not like this post-season was an anamoly. The NBA as a whole has become devoid of personality and a certain fire. Has there ever been a time in the NBA where two players have been as dominant as Duncan and Shaq (they've won 8 of the last 9 championships) yet there is absolutely not one ounce of rivalry between them? How many times have you ever heard a debate about Duncan vs. Shaq? The two have met five times in the playoffs yet there is hardly a single memorable moment from any of those meetings. And it's not like there's any hope of one blossoming. Shaq, who once called himself the most dominant player in the league has handed the reins of his team to Dwyane Wade and is on the downside of his career.

And who is going to step up and fill the personality void left by Shaq, Diesel, the Big Aristotle? Lebron's focus on being a "world icon" has basically turned him into an empty uniform in terms of personality. While Jordan was dominant, he had a killer instinct and a slight swagger that, while not pronounced, was enough to annoy all opponents. Magic had his smile but he also had that switch that would turn him into a mercenary if that was what was needed to win. Larry Bird was downright cocky and didn't care if you knew it. Dwyane Wade is great but he doesn't exhibit those same traits. He's more like David Robinson, a nice guy who happens to be amazing at basketball. Carmelo Anthony might have it but just ask Tracy McGrady how much swagger matters if you can't get out of the first round. Gilbert Arenas has personality but he's more of a clown prince than lethal weapon. And who the hell knows what Chris Bosh is even like?

While the NBA is doing everything it can to clean up its image, the bottom line is that the league needs some villains. People might root for the heroes but they'll always pay more attention to the bad guys. People claimed they were sick of hearing about Terrell Owens, but that didn't make them stop talking about Terrell Owens. Everyone knows when A-Rod and the Yankees are in town. The NBA, however, doesn't have anyone to fill that role. Kobe seemed poised to take over but the Lakers haven't been good enough to make him relevant. Ditto for Vince Carter and Ron Artest. Josh Smith has potential but he needs to realize that to be successful you have to piss off your opponents, not your teammates. Everyone loves to hate the Knicks but the hate has gotten so bad of late that they are turning into the overpaid underdogs that you hope might be able to turn it around. Even worse, when possible villains do make it to good teams, the NBA and the media seems to do everything they can to paint them in more positive light. Rasheed Wallace was the poster boy of villainy during the Lakers/Blazers era but then became a misunderstood underdog when he helped lead the Pistons past the Blazers. Stephen Jackson underwent a similar change (although his constant complaining wore that will out in the Utah series). Bruce Bowen is gaining recognition but he doesn't have a foil to go up against. He's Rodman without a Jordan; Michael Cooper without his Bird.

The latest draft doesn't seem to hold much in terms of Villain potential. The one guy who seems like he could fill the role is Joakim Noah. If he pans out, I think all of his histrionics will make it pretty easy for opposing fans to want to root against him. But the real anti-saviors could be arriving in 2008. OJ Mayo and Michael Beasley are two throwback players in terms of their disinterest in whether or not opponents like them. Mayo has never shied away from letting people know how good he is and Michael Beasley won't refrain from yapping at his opponents during the game. And most importantly, they both have the skills to back up their boasts. Donte Green doesn't have bad guy potential but he is a vocal player with a flair for the dramatic.

While the future of the NBA looks bright talent-wise, hopefully some of the young prospects will start showing a little more attitude of Gary Payton, the flair of Larry Johnson, the determination of Alonzo Mourning, or the personality of Charles Barkley. As Gore Vidal once said, "It's not enough to succeed. Others must fail." A league full of nice guys isn't going to be entertaining to the average fan. The NBA needs to say hi to the bad guys that opposing fans relish rooting against.

Posted by SoulHonky at 02:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Boston Celtics might not be able to make a move because of it. The Phoenix Suns might have to dump a player to avoid it. The Mavericks don't care about it. Wasn't the luxury tax put in place to help the smaller market teams and stingier owners?

For all the talk of changes this year to fix the game, the one that should happen first is raising the luxury tax by around 15 million. Whenever you hear a story about financial issues in the NBA, it isn't that a team can't afford its payroll, it's that the owners aren't able to spend what they want because they will run into the luxury tax. We could have one of the stingier ownership groups in the league but if the luxury tax was raised to 80 million, I really don't think that Wyc and friends would have a problem spending more money.

Besides the fact that the NBA trade deadline and offseason has become more about economics than basketball, this move will also save hapless NBA GM's from themselves. For most teams, one or two bad contracts means certain doom, or at least, an arrested development. The Cavaliers might be a move or two away from competing but they won't be able to make those moves because they can't sign anyone without going over the cap and nobody is going to deal for overpaid guys like Larry Hughes and Eric Snow. Danny Ainge started his tenure with one major mistake, adding Raef Lafrentz's salary, and has been trying to get out from behind the eight ball ever since. Isiah Thomas's first move was to add Stephon Marbury and Penny Hardaway's huge contract... and he's been adding payroll ever since. The Dallas Mavericks wouldn't be the Mavericks if it wasn't for Cuban's deep pockets. Don Nelson was able to build his team even after spending 10 million on Shawn Bradley, Evan Eshmeyer, and Tariq Abdul-Wahad and another 8 million on Erick Dampier.

Of course, the one problem here is that most GM's will just go out and use the extra space to overpay mediocre players because they are suddenly able to. Still, intelligently run teams will be able to hold