The NBA lottery wasn't an anamoly, it was a sign. This offseason is going to be the craziest in recent memory and the fact that three teams jumped up to take the top three slots of the lottery only made things crazier. Currently there are good players who can become free agents, great players who are on the block, bad teams trying to decide if they should rebuild or try to win now, and very good teams wondering what move will help them become great. Draft day 2007 is going to be an interesting one. Let's look at who has what and where they might be headed.
1. Portland selects Greg Oden:
Yes, Kevin Durant fills their current roster better but you don't pass up Greg Oden because you have Zach Randolph and LaMarcus Aldridge. So after taking Oden, the first order of business in Portland is to find a new home for Zach Randolph and Darius Miles. In the case of Miles, if New York doesn't bite on a deal for Malik Rose or some sort of Jerome James and Nate Robinson for Miles and the 37th pick type deal, the Blazers will likely have to bite the bullet and buy Miles out. That leaves Z-Bo.
Dallas and Chicago need low post threats but neither team seems likely to add a possible malcontent. The Lakers could use a low post scorer but they need defense more than that, which isn't Zach's cup of tea. Kevin McHale never met a headcase or a bad contract he wouldn't trade for but he'd have to give up the #7 pick for Zach which might seem steep. In the end, the best deal might be to offer one headcase for another.
The Sacramento Kings could deal Ron Artest and Kenny Thomas for Zach Randolph. The Kings get a low post scorer that they haven't had since Chris Webber and dump Artest, who has never fit in. Portland takes on the premiere basketcase in the NBA but he can opt out of his final year (which is 2008/9) so it might be a one year flyer. And if it works out, an Artest, Aldridge, Oden frontcourt could be tough to score on.
One of the other issues for the Blazers is Raef Lafrentz's player option on his contract. I'm not sure if it's against the rules but if I was the Blazers owner, I'd broker a deal to pay Raef most of the money due to him if he agreed to opt out of his contract. If he did that, the Blazers could make a run at free agent Rashard Lewis to fill the three spot.
2. Seattle selects Kevin Durant:
Oh what a difference one slot makes. With Greg Oden on the team, Seattle could convince Rashard Lewis to stay and keep Ray Allen happy. However by winning the second pick, odds are that one of those two might be going to Disney World. 'Shard probably won't want to stick around when the new savior plays the same position and Allen probably won't want to wait for Durant to get acclimated to the NBA.
The Sonics don't have much say in the Lewis situation. He could just go and sign with Charlotte and there's nothing the Sonics can do. Only time can tell what will happen there. Ray Allen, however, is under contract so the Sonics control their own destiny. They could deal him to Orlando but all the Magic have to offer is Jameer Nelson and a sign-and-trade of Darko Milicic. (Although, in term's of Rashard Lewis, a Darko for 'Shard swap would be better than losing Lewis for nothing.) The Grizzlies could offer the #4 pick and Hakim Warrick but the Sonics would likely have to take on Brian Cardinal's crap contract. Frighteningly, the deal that could pan out is Wally Szczerbiak, the #5 pick, Gerald Green, Delonte West, Sebastian Telfair (likely to be waived immediately), and Brian Scalabrine for Ray Allen, Earl Watson, and Robert Swift. Personally, I'm not a fan of this but I could see Ainge pulling the trigger on that deal.
3. Atlanta selects Mike Conley Jr.:
Lord knows what Billy Knight might do but I think that he has to go with a point guard first. With a bevy of young talent and the #11 pick, he could easily try to move up to grab a better draft pick. Then again, if Knight focuses on the fact that he is going to lose his draft pick next year, he might want to force the issue. Ironically, one of his best targets might be Pau Gasol, the man the Hawks dealt away last time they had the #3 pick and forced the issue (they dealt Pau, Brevin Knight, and Lorenzen Wright for Shareef Abdur-Rahim). Still, I think the PG position is extremely important and the Hawks can't afford to blow another opportunity at bringing in a potential elite PG.
4. Houston via Memphis selects Yi Jianlian
The Grizzlies, like the Celtics, have to figure out if they want to win now or rebuild. And the Grizzlies, like the Celtics, will likely opt for winning now. Odds are that they won't be able to get what they want for Gasol (especially if Ben Gordon and Luol Deng is the going rate) so they will likely look to move the pick. While this deal would never happen, I think the best deal for all teams involved could be Mike Miller, #4, Brian Cardinal, and Hakim Warrick for Tracy McGrady. The Rockets become Yao's team and Miller would be a perfect complement. Warrick can handle the PF spot until Jianlian is ready to take over. While T-Mac is still a beast, he's getting older and has been talking retirement. And although Jeff Van Gundy took the fall, it's time to realize that the McGrady/Ming duo isn't going to bring a title to H-Town. Financially, the Grizzlies get the superstar they've been looking for in order to sell more tickets while the Rockets become China's team and sell even more jerseys.
5. Seattle via Boston selects Brandan Wright
While I don't like the idea, I'm going to stick with the trade I mentioned earlier with Ray Allen and Wally, Green, West and the #5 as the main pieces. The other option is the opposite direction which would be replacing McGrady with Pierce in the Memphis deal. That will never happen simply because there's no way Ainge could sell that to the fan base. So Seattle ends up with this pick and they have to decide between Corey Brewer's defense over Brandan Wright upside. I think the Sonics will opt for becoming Toronto West with Durant and Wright being their Bosh and Bargnani. Ridnour, Green, Durant, Wright, and Petro might be one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA but oh the upside!
6. Milwaukee selects Corey Brewer 
If Atlanta wants to move up, some sort of deal involving Josh Smith and Shelden Williams for Brian Skinner, the #6, and Milwaukee 2008 pick could be discussed and it might be possible if Corey Brewer goes at #5 and Brandan Wright is still available here. Even still a deal could happen. Josh Smith is a defensive beast who might have worn out his welcome in A-Town. He also would be a perfect complement to the defensive-sieve that is Charlie Villenueva. Smith could handle the 3 or 4 while I'm not sure that Brewer is going to be able to help check Villenueva's man. If Wright isn't around though, I can't see Atlanta giving up so much unless they really are sick of J-Smooth's act. Brewer makes sense in Milwaukee as he replaces Ruben Patterson as the defensive stopper.
Part 2 to come tomorrow.
If the Hawks aren't sold on Smith's attitude, they may be willing to this route, especially if they are afraid that Conley won't last past the Bucks' pick. This way they could add a big man at 3 and still get Conley. The Celtics roll the dice with Smith but he is worth the risk.
Trade #2: Wally, West, Telfair for Cuttino Mobley, Sam Cassell
Paul Pierce and Al Jefferson were untouchable. 
I have a hard time judging the guy on the left because this pic looks too much like the guy on the right. I think I'm holding the ears against Brandan Wright but personally I just have a hard time getting excited about the prospect of the Celtics drafting him.
So where can Artest go? The pickings are slim. Unless Donald Sterling backs off his refusal to trade Corey Maggette, the offer will likely look like: Antoine Walker and Jason Williams for Artest and Kenny Thomas, Quentin Richardson and Nate Robinson for Artest and Francisco Garcia, or Hedo Turkoglu and Carlos Arroyo for Artest and John Salmons. Not terribly appealing if you're a Kings fan.
However, while Artest might be off-limits, the target the Celtics could look at is Mike Bibby. Bibby could offer a decent short-term fix for the PG position. If karma bites the tanking C's in the ass and we end up with the #3 to #5 pick, a swap of Wally and #3 for Bibby and #10 has to be considered. The fact that Danny Ainge also supposedly has his eyes on Al Thornton could make this move even more of a possibility.
The question is, does Bibby have enough left in the tank to validate dropping possibly 7 spots to get him. Now, the first part of this answer is what does dropping seven spots mean? Right now, I'm not so sure that they guy going 14th isn't going to be better than the guy going #3. Still, is Mike Bibby really worth passing up top choice of the rest of the draftees?
Personally, I don't have a definite stance on this (I prefer to have a veteran PG and am confident in the depth of the draft but I've never been a huge fan of Bibby as a pro), but this type of deal (if not this deal in particular) is the question that Celtics fans are going to have to consider should we not get a top 2 pick come the 22nd.
4) Thad Young struggled in the beginning of the season, improved, but all of the same questions remain. The biggest issue for Young is one that really can't be answered until he gets into the pros: What position does he play? It terms of immediate impact, another year would help so he could fill out and work improve his jumper but it's not like those aren't things that he could accomplish under the guidance of a professional coaching staff. (Also, there's no guarentee that those things happen in college either)
5) Young's teammate Javaris Crittenton has a tough decision. He most certainly needs another year but what happens if he doesn't show enough improvement? There is always the threat of being the next Chris Duhon (supposed lotto player after his sophomore year who fell to the second round in his senior year) or even Chris Thomas (Lotto candidate who stayed in and went undrafted). Possibly a deciding factor for Crittenton was Young's decision to leave. Without Thaddeus as a running mate Crittenton could face stiffer defenses which could help stifle his game and his draft stock. Something similar happened to Rodney Stuckey. At the beginning of the year he was the nation's best kept secret but once the secret was out, defenses keyed on him and now he might fall out of the first round. Also, Stuckey stayed in despite 2006 being a horrific draft and now he's coming out in a loaded one. Crittenton has to keep an eye out for this as well. 2007 is a very weak draft in terms of PG's while next year looks like it could be loaded with Derrick Rose and OJ Mayo as well as fellow to-be-sophomores Ty Lawson, Darren Collison, and Scottie Reynolds. While he might not be ready on day one, how many PG's are? Going later in the draft means he'll likely get a chance to understudy for a couple of years before getting the reins. The only reason to stay in college is if you have to learn to lead a team. This was Shaun Livingston's achilles heel and one that he might have been able to work on in college (as opposed to dealing with NBA-sized egos). This isn't a problem for Crittenton so he might as well learn on the job as opposed to staying in school.
6) Spencer Hawes' problem is that he's not that athletic. Staying in school isn't going to change that. And playing well won't make people overlook that, just ask Aaron Gray or Glen Davis. Hawes needs to strike while the iron is hot and enter this draft now.
7) Daequan Cook, on the other hand, should only come out this season if he thinks that a) he is overhyped and is just going to get exposed in college or b) thinks he made a mistake by going to Ohio St. and will never get a fair shake from Thad Motta. While he can always improve in the pros, he might be better off being the man for one or two years at Ohio State and working on his complete game. Unless he feels that he's the next Josh McRoberts, school should be back in session for Cook.
As for the guys that stayed in, the only two who might want to come out now is Hasheem Thabeet and Chase Buddinger. If Thabeet is truly a hardship case and won't likely stay past his second year, you might wonder why bother staying another year. He's still going to be a project so why not make some money? The one thing going for him next season is that Greg Oden, Greg Hibbert, and Spencer Hawes won't be in the draft. Maybe Brook Lopez and Kosta Koufos jump over him in the rankings but odds are he'll still be a lotto pick. With Buddinger, he only needs to look at teammate Marcus Williams, a guy who was a top player coming into the year and now could possibly fall to the second round. And, as with Hawes, one of his issues is foot speed. Buddinger has to be realistic and take a look at his defensive skills. If he thinks he can improve them, then he should stay in. If he thinks his problem is foot speed, then he should leave immediately. After his freshman year, Jason Kapono was the belle of the ball and a likely mid-first round pick. The longer he stayed, the longer people realized that he lacked foot-speed and was fairly one-dimensional and he fell in the draft. Ty Lawson might want to take advantage of the poor PG crop but he could use another year of leading a team and learning how to use his skills.
