And with the 4th pick in the NBA draft. the Boston Celtics select...
While it's looking like the Celtics will have the 2nd best chance at the #1 pick, that slot hasn't been very kind to its owners in the last few years. Since the NBA changed the draft lottery in 1995, the second worst team has landed the #1 overall selection once (Philly, Allen Iverson). Even more depressing is the fact that in those 11* years, the 2nd worst team has only ended up with the 2nd pick twice (2002, Jay Williams; 2006, Ty Thomas who was then traded to Portland, 2006). The second worst team has ended up with the 4th worst pick six out of the last eleven years. The players grabbed at the 4th spot those years? Rasheed Wallace (1995), Antawn Jamison, who was immediately dealt for Vince Carter (1998), Lamar Odom (1999), Marcus Fizer (2000), Shaun Livingston (2004), Chris Paul (2005). Not a bad haul. Also on the bright side, the pick has only fallen to its worst possible outcome once, when the Warriors took Jason Richardson with the 5th pick.
The possible lucky teams? Well, the third worst team has won as many top two picks (5) as the worst team has over the past few years. And the fifth worst team has managed to sneak into the top two four times. The worst team to win the lottery was the Washington in 2001 (8th worst team) but their luck didn't hold as they took Kwame Brown with the pick.
So what does this all mean? Absolutely nothing. We still have the 2nd best chance at the top pick and around a 40% chance at a top 2 pick. Really all it is is a reminder not to count your Buckeyes (or Longhorns) before they hatch.
* This does not include 2003 in which there was a tie for last place so the distribution of ping pong ball was altered. The Cavs and Nuggets had an equal shot at the first pick. Cleveland won the lotto, Denver ended up with the third pick. The 6th worst Grizzlies won the 2nd pick (but had years earlier dealt it to Detroit for Otis Thorpe).
