Can Danny?

In today's Herald (and now reported at ESPN.com, Paul Pierce weighed in on his frustrations.

"It's definitely another year gone by for me," Pierce told the Boston Herald in a story published Friday. "It's another year we don't get into the postseason. It's another year I don't get recognized for the things I do. I'm the classic case of a great player on a bad team, and it stinks."
Pierce, a five-time All-Star, has suffered through injuries and an 18-game losing streak by Boston this season. Despite those difficulties, Pierce has managed to average 25 points and 5.9 rebounds per game.
"I'm waiting to see what happens this summer," he told the paper. "We have to see who we keep and who has enough potential trade value to make a difference.
"I'm not talking about winning a few more games. I'm talking about getting into the playoffs, going deep into the playoffs. I don't want to be a team that just sneaks in. I want to be on a team that everyone says before the season, 'This is a team that's going somewhere,' like Detroit.
"Either we go for it, or we don't."

First off, I'd like to say that I do think Pierce is right about one thing. he is the classic case of a great player on a bad team. He is an uber-talented player who often makes bone-headed moves in key moments, forces his own offense, and isn't someone you can run the offense through. If Pierce is to win, he is going to need to be the second fiddle on a team. While he can have some amazing moments like the Orlando game, more often his attempts at being heroic end in turnovers or forced shots. If the Boston Celtics become the team Pierce is hoping for next season, it will be because they bring in someone who can lead the team and run the offense while Pierce focuses on scoring. Paul Pierce needs to be happy being a very good player on a winning team instead of focusing on being recognized as a great player.

The more pressing issue is that Pierce, as expected, could force Danny's hand this offseason. If he wants to win now (and win at Detroit's level), then we'll need to either get Oden or Durant AND make a move for another key veteran. Unfortunately, right now, the trade value of the Celtics not named Pierce or Jefferson is pretty low. Rajon Rondo, Delonte West, and Gerald Green might have some value but the odds of the team getting equal value for them is slim-to-none. As it stands, this offseason could be very similar to the past Ainge-led offseasons, Danny calls around offering his young guys, can't get equal value, nothing happens. The one difference is that Wally might be such an albatross that we don't even get our annual lateral move (although part of me is afraid that we'll deal him for a headcase signed to a long term deal or dump a young talent to cut a year off of his deal ala the Raef/Roy for Theo/Bassy deal). Also, Ratliff's deal might not be able to be dealt because Al Jefferson is likely to take his spot in the payroll. The C's would have to move Wally's deal first or Wyc and Co. have to bite the bullet and agree to pay the luxury tax one year when Pierce, Jefferson, Wally, and player acquired for Theo are all on the books.

Making matters worse, one thing that could build confidence in Pierce (the team winning after he shuts it down) would actually hurt them in the long run as it could cost them Oden or Durant. Still, all things considered, I think everyone has to hope that the Celtics make a run without Pierce. As I wrote before, being the second worst team guarentees nothing and another long losing streak will only make Paul all the more anxious about deals needing to be made this offseason.

This was already a make-or-break offseason for the Celtics but now it's looking like it could be a no-win situation. In order to build the team that satisfies Pierce, the C's will likely have to give up some of their young talent for less than they are potentially worth. If not that, then Pierce will want out and we'd end up getting dimes on the dollar for him. Hopefully the C's win the lotto and Pierce will be sated by Oden and Durant but if not, this offseason might be uglier than this season.

Posted by SoulHonky at 10:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Ian Thomsen's article on possible future candidate for GM makes you realize how lackluster GM's get recycled throughout the league. Check out some of the spin he puts out there about some terrible former GM's.

Jim Paxson: Now a consultant to his younger brother (GM John) in Chicago, Paxson isn't afraid to make bold moves. He laid the groundwork for Cleveland's current success, and he's far better prepared for his next opportunity than when the Cavaliers rushed him into the GM chair in 1999.

Isn't afraid to make bold moves? Like a first round pick for Jiri Welsch? Or overpaying Eric Snow? Drafting Desagana Diop, Luke Jackson, and Chris Mihm? Paxson made one good move (Tony Battie for Drew Gooden, Anderson Varejao, and Steven Hunter). Other than that, the only groundwork he really laid for the Cavaliers was to build a terrible team that was in the position to win the lottery and get Lebron James. Blaming a lack of preparation for his failure seems laughable.

Chris Wallace: The 2001-02 Celtics won 49 games -- the high in the post-Bird era -- during Wallace's brief tenure in charge. A true insider and intelligence gatherer.

No mention of Vin Baker? Joe Johnson? Jerome Moiso? The Celtics won 49 games with the team that he inherited, not the one that he built.

Wally Walker: The former Sonics president and minority owner will move up this list when he announces he is interested in returning to the league. He was ahead of his time in Seattle while building a young, fiscally disciplined roster.

This is the man who helped drive up prices for big men by signing Jim Mcilvane to a giant contract in the 90's. He paid Shawn Kemp a ton of money and then dealt him for Vin Baker. In the end, his majority owner tied the purse strings since the team was for sale and Wally had to build with the limited money he had to work with. Saying he was ahead of his time is like saying Elgin Baylor has been a visionary for all of these years. Perhaps he could do more with an owner who was willing to spend a little more but he's shown the ability to take a championship contending team and turn them into a mediocre 40 win squad.

Dave Babcock: Known as the least conservative of the Babcock brothers, the Bucks' director of player personnel has the knowledge, experience and presence to run his own team.

OK, maybe Babcock might be solid but hiring the least conservative of the Babcock brothers has to give an owner pause. Rob Babcock ran the Toronto Raptors into the ground, getting nothing for Vince Carter, drafting poorly, and being terrible in general. Pete Babcock took over a solid Atlanta Hawks team and in one deal (Steve Smith for J.R. Rider) set in motion the ruin of the franchise. He didn't help himself any by giving away draft picks left and right. He dealt a lottery pick for Lorenzen Wright, then turned around and gave up Lo Wright, Brevin Knight, and #3 pick in 2001 for Shareef Abdur-Rahim. One can only imagine what an even less conservative Babcock might do.

I can only hope that when we get rid of Ainge that we don't make a bad decision and re-hire a guy who's already proven that he can't cut it as an NBA General Manager.

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Following the ridiculous loss to the Bobcats, Doc Rivers explained that what you saw against the Bobcats this Wednesday night is par for the course for good teams. Phil Jackson, he explained, can bench his starters at the end of the game and stick with the scrubs to teach them a lesson because they are contending teams (and apparently can get away with throwing a game here and there). I'm not quite sure how much I by that but that wasn't the most potentially problematic part.
Not verbatim but Doc stated at the beginning of the interview:

I was not tanking the game. I was not throwing the game. Honestly I got to a point early in the fourth quarter, where I looked at my coaches and said We're going to win or lose with this group. I got to the point that I wondered What do we get if we win this game. I was asking on the bench, what do we get if we put those guys back in, Paul and Al, and win this game. At some point, those other guys (the bench) have to play. A little bit.

"Tonight I said screw it, they're staying in. I got bad looks from some of the guys on the bench. I told them No. They aren't going in."

When a team is in the hunt for a top pick and then says something to the effect of, "What do we get out of winning this game?" there's going to be problems. David Stern can not have coaches of teams fighting for Oden and Durant. He can not have coaches admitting to not trying to win the games and intentionally holding out their best players just to teach guys at the end of the bench a lesson.
Hopefully it's nothing but this should, at the very least, draw a harsh warning from David Stern. I don't care if you're Phil Jackson or Doc Rivers, you simply can't admit to not trying your best to win a game.

Also disquieting was the fact that Doc seemed very upset at the second unit and made reference to their bitching about playing time. This brings up the question: are Bassy, Green, and Gomes really complaining THAT much about their playing time? (Doc made an exception for Leon Powe, saying he played well and wasn't part of the offending unit) Is there unrest in the locker room? Bassy is third string which can't make him happy and neither he nor Gerald can be thrilled to see Allan Ray step off the D-League bus and into crunch time minutes. Meanwhile Gomes has played well but been bounced around, losing his starting spot to, at one time or another, Perkins or Scalabrine. Could this be wearing on the young players?

Another concern (which admittedly is one for the conspiracy theorists) is that this could be the first incident in a game of chicken between Doc and Danny. Doc has one year left and doesn't want to be a lame duck coach. I can't imagine Danny wants to re-sign Doc to a long term deal but then again I can't see Wyc and friends being all that interested in firing Doc and eating his salary. So the stand-off begins: Doc wants to get an extension or get fired while Ainge wants him to coach for one year or resign. Danny holds all the cards but that doesn't mean that it couldn't get ugly.

Posted by SoulHonky at 02:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

One player whom won't be seen this March Madness is super-sophomore Rodney Stuckey out of Eastern Washington. Stuckey entered the season as the oxymoronic much lauded best kept secret in college hoops. The 6'5 combo guard burst on the scene last season and then had a solid season in his second year. Comparisons with Dwyane Wade aren't uncommon but the downside of that is that people compare him to Wade because of his lack of an outside shot.

Could Stuckey be the next Wade? Who knows. And NBA scouts aren't going to have a lot of time to figure it out. Wade helped his draft stock with a great tournament performance and then wowed even more people in the pre-draft workouts. Stuckey isn't in the tourney and a new NBA rule has now outlawed workouts before the NBA pre-draft camp. The rule change didn't make much splash in the news and has been widely ignored but for the likes of Rodney Stuckey and other people who want to help themselves in workouts, its a major blow.

Last season, the Celtics started working out players the day before the lottery, two weeks before the pre-draft camp. While that might not seem like a lot of lost time, for Rodney Stuckey, it makes his odds of moving up the draft even harder. This year, Stuckey only has 23 days to workout for teams. As he could go anywhere from the early-20's to the mid-to-late lottery, he'll likely have twenty-three days to work out with twenty-or-so teams all over the country. It's a rigorous schedule that would wear down many players. Stuckey could go the Gerald Green route and only workout for teams that are in the range in which he wants to be drafted. That is a major risk as even a super-prospect like Gerald Green fell because of it. When the first teams passed on Gerald, he fell into the laps of teams who hadn't seen him workout. The problem, of course, was that those teams fell in love with a prospect that they had worked out and passed on Gerald. While that worked out for the Celtics, it isn't exactly a risk Stuckey might want to take. Still, it puts Stuckey in an odd position; say a team without a draft pick might be interested in trading for a pick in order to select Stuckey? Does he add them to his already chock-full workout schedule and perhaps wear himself down even further for later workouts? (And working out for a team twice might be out of the question)

The NBA made the rule change for their own self-interest, i.e, they were tired of nobody showing up to their pre-draft camp. The NBA wanted big name players to show up but why? Judging players in the pre-draft camp is like drafting off of summer league play. The games are ragged and performing in those games doesn't necessarily translate to actual NBA games. Also, the big names have nothing to prove. The pre-draft camp was a major boost for second rounders. As they had a chance to show their skills. With more top talent (and guys who are locks to be draft) some border-line talents will likely be pushed out. Also, the NBA is once again putting their own personal pet project over the welfare of the game. If most teams would rather scout the best prospect on their own, why not let them? Does the NBA see the pre-draft camp as an attendance draw or as something that they could put on TV? With our without bluechip prospects, who besides die-hard fans will watch it either way?

The ulterior motive might just be to dissuade underclassman who are on the bubble from coming out. Giving them less time to prove themselves would make staying in college a bit more enticing. That being said, how much would it help? Craig Smith and Paul Millsap could have played 8 years in college, teams still would have shied away from them, despite their talents, because of their heights. Leon Powe's stock dropped after he blew outs his knees. People said he should stay in to show he could be healthy for a season, as if his already injured knees would just go away or be overlooked by scouts. Why risk getting hurt again playing for free?

The NBA draft is a crap shoot and this rule is just making it more muddied than before. While the top of the draft should be OK, I wouldn't be surprised if we started to see a lot of talented players fall into the second round or even go undrafted.

Posted by SoulHonky at 01:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Paul Pierce got a taste of it against Chicago. Kobe was on the wrong end of it in Philadelpha a few nights ago. There's a changing of the guard in the NBA and the stars of the 90's are about to be eclipsed by the Class of '00.

This year has been a coming out party for many young stars who finally got out from under the shadow of a veteran player. Luol Deng's all-around game is finally getting some notice. Andre Iguodala has emerged now that Allen Iverson is out of Philly. Kevin Martin has made everyone in Sacramento forget about Bonzi Wells. Chris Bosh put his imprint on Toronto in his first full season without Vince and is now making a run at first team All-NBA status. While many people saw last year's Finals, in which the elder Shaq stepped aside so Dwyane Wade could be the team leader, as an isolated incident, it is actually a sign of the times. The Class of '00 is taking over as many of the 90's stars start to reach their 30's.

Unfortunately, not everyone is taking the news very well. Andrei Kirilienko has openly complained about his role while murmurs in Phoenix are that Shawn Marion hasn't been pleased by the lack of offense and credit that he's been receiving. Unfortunately for AK-47 and The Matrix, no matter where they go, they'll likely find themselves in the same position. Every team will likely have one or two players who are better and younger. While they might still consider themselves superstars (and are still paid as such), the reality is that they are more complementary players now.

The time has come for many teams to realize that they can't keep sticking with their old reliable and slowly build around them. Teams like Sacramento (Bibby, Miller, Artest), Minnesota (KG, Davis), and Seattle (Allen, Lewis) need to realize that, if they don't think they can win a title in the next three years, they need to start rebuilding today. While KG is still a franchise player, guys like Bibby and Ray Allen need to realize that they are going to be facing new roles on winning franchises. Allen is still a great player but if he is going to win a title, it will be as the second fiddle. Bibby is likely a third option on a contending team. As strange as this sounds, these guys, and many of their peers, need to learn a lesson from Stephon Marbury. The self-proclaimed best point guard in the league has overcome the selfishness that had plagued his career and is now fitting in to the Knicks system, even going so far as to say that the Knicks are Eddy Curry's team. For the first time in since he left Minnesota, Steph isn't the leading shot taker on his squad. In fact, he's third, behind Jamal Crawford and Curry.

The other poster boy for selfishness, Kobe Bryant, has matured as well but his issue is his supporting cast. The Lakers need to realize that, no matter how talented he may be, Lamar Odom simply isn't reliable enough to be a second star in the NBA anymore. On the other hand, the Lakers are risking a lot by expecting Andrew Bynum to be ready to accept the 2nd star mantle before Kobe and Odom starts to wear down from injuries.

For the Celtics and Paul Pierce, what all of this means is a change in strategy. The days of Paul holding the ball and going one-on-one are over. In fact, the days of Pierce being the man that runs the offense are likely over. This isn't as big of a deal as the offense often ran through Antoine during his time here. If the Celtics are to succeed in the near future, they are going to have to work the ball into Big Al Jefferson more often. Unfortunately, I'm not sure Big Al is capable of running the offense through the post so the C's will likely require a PG to help facillitate the offense and spread the ball between Pierce, Big Al and the other Celtics. (Rondo might be that guy but I'm not sure about that as of yet and for the next couple of years, we need a veteran PG to hold the position while Rondo develops)
As for Gerald Green, I don't think he has the IQ or intangibles to be anything more than a complementary players (albeit potentially a great one ala Rashard Lewis or Shawn Marion). Pierce and Jefferson are the core of the offense but Green will likely get a number of good looks in the flow of the offense. But the key to that is that the offense must flow and it can't be the current version in which Pierce often holds the ball nor can it be the previous Antoine/Pierce dominated offense from the beginning of this decade.

The days of Pierce, Carter, KG, etc. being the dominant force on a winning team are over. If these guys want to win, they are going to have to become part of a team. If they don't seem able to handle that reality (or if their team is unable to build a solid team around them), then they should be sent away for parts that fit.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Usually when a trade is made, people argue over who got the best of the deal, often coming to the realization that the deal helped both squads. However there are always those rare occassions when a GM makes a deal so devoid of logic that pretty much everyone agrees that it was a horrible deal. Usually these obvious deals work out as expected but every so often a lopsided deal actually pans out as being fair or even better for the team that was supposedly getting hosed. So here are the five least lopsided lopsided deals of the 21st Century.

5. Eddy Curry to New York: Eddy Curry wasn't impressing too many people with his play for the Bulls. He was solid but unspectacular on offese, invisible on the boards, and a project on defense. Coming into the league, Curry was seen as a future franchise big man and Isiah Thomas knew that those were hard to come by. He was willing to pay for Curry but because the Knicks were over the cap, the only way they could acquire the big man was a sign-and-trade. Jon Paxson held out and ended up getting Tim Thomas, Mike Sweetney, Jermanie Jackson, the 2006 Knicks pick, the right to swap 2007 picks and a couple of 2nd rounders. That's a TON to give up for a young big man and Isiah was mocked across the nation for the move. Then something happened. Tim Thomas was such a headcase in Chicago that the Bulls finally just bought him out to get rid of it. Mike Sweetney didn't improve any. And the 2006 draft turned out to be one of the worst in recent memory. Still, the 2007 pick seemed like it could be another top 2 pick but the Knicks started winning. As it stands now, Eddy Curry is playing well, Ty Thomas is barely playing, the Knicks will be swapping the 12th pick for the Bulls 22nd pick in a draft that is very deep and both teams could get someone very talented. This deal still could look like a great move for the Bulls but it isn't nearly the horrific mistake that people made it out to be.

4. Eddie Griffin to Houston: Peter Vescey could only shake his head. The New Jersey fans at the draft booed. The hugely talented Eddie Griffin, who averaged 17/10 and 4 block in his freshman year, fell to the Nets' 7th pick yet new Nets GM Rod Thorn decided to spit in Lady Luck's face by trading the stud freshman for three later picks: Richard Jefferson, Brandon Armstrong, and Jason Collins. Needless to say, the deal now looks like a steal for the Nets. Eddie Griffin lasted two season in Houston and has become a problem child who could never harness his talent. Jefferson became a key member of a two time Eastern Conference finalist. Not that Rod Thorn should get too much credit, players taken after Armstrong and Collins include: Gerald Wallace, Sam Dalembert, Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, and Mehmet Okur.

3:Allen Iverson to the Nuggets: The one thing you can still argue against Billy King is that he could have done better. Still, this shockingly one-sided deal doesn't look so bad right now. The key, of course, is that the Sixers didn't do what most people expected, which was dump Andre Miller. Miller and Joe Smith have helped the young Sixers come alive and put together a great win streak. Even more importantly, Andre Iguodala has become the franchise player of the team and disappointments Sam Dalembert and Kyle Korver have re-emerged as threats. Denver, meanwhile, is clining to the 7th spot in the playoffs, are not looking like A.I. will lead them out of the first round, and most importantly, are hardly the picture of tranquility. Some reports have both George Karl and Carmelo Anthony missing 'Dre, a pure point guard. And on top of this all, the Sixers have two more picks, Denver's (18th) and Dallas' (30), in the upcoming draft, which is looking like it could be very deep with talent.

2: The Darko deals: In what has to be one of the stranger deals in basketball, the Vancouver Grizzlies, heading into their third year as a franchise and fresh off of a 14 win season, decided it would be a good idea to trade a protected draft pick for 15 year veteran, Otis Thorpe. Maybe they thought the vet could mentor their two first rounders Bryant Reeves and Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Whatever they thought, it didn't work out, Thorpe lasted 47 games in Memphis before being dealt to Sacramento for Bobby Hurley (who would be out of the league at the end of the season).
On the bright side, the protection on the pick kept saving the Grizz from losing their draft picks, however by 2003, the only restriction left was #1 protection. It seemed a foregone conclusion that the Grizz would lose their pick but, as the envelopes were turned over at the lottery ceremony, the now Memphis Grizzlies found themselves as one of the final two envelopes. If they won the lotto, they'd get Lebron James. If the lost, they would lose their pick. As luck wouldn't have it, Lebron James ended up in Cleveland and the chance to draft Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, or Carmelo Anthony fell to the Pistons. What looked like a horrific deal turned out to be not-so-bad as the Pistons pick, Darko Milicic, was a bust in Detroit and unceremoniously dumped in his third year.

Oddly enough, the second Darko deal looked like a steal for Orlando. Darko's game improved and the Magic started to look like they could be a top six team in the East. Giving up The Serbian Gangster and Carlos Arroyo for Kelvin Cato and a future pick seemed like a coup for Orlando and a rare mistake by Joe Dumars. However, Darko's been a bit of a disappointment again this season and the Magic are falling apart. The pick is only top five protected and if the Magic slide continues, the Pistons might end up with a very nice pick (and one less potentially problematic contract negotiation) for Darko.

1. Grant Hill to Orlando: The Orlando Magic opened up cap space to sign a couple of superstars and forced the Detroit Pistons to make a sign-and-trade of their superstar Grant Hill. The 27 year old Hill was a perennial All-Star and franchise caliber player, despite not having been able to get the Pistons out of the first round of the playoffs in his six years in Detroit. All the Pistons were able to get in return for this superstar was two undrafted journeymen Chucky Atkins and Ben Wallace.
After one lottery season, the Pistons revamped their team and, led by Defensive Player of the Year Ben Wallace and starting PG Chucky Atkins, made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs, a place Orlando would never see with Grant Hill, who ran into injury problems and was never able to regain his superstar form. Later, the cap space that the Pistons didn't spend on Grant Hill was used to acquire Chauncey Billups (a player the Magic let walk in 2000 in order to free up cap space for Hill). The Magic also traded away Corey Maggette to open up the space to get Grant Hill and Tracy McGrady.

Posted by SoulHonky at 01:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

While it's looking like the Celtics will have the 2nd best chance at the #1 pick, that slot hasn't been very kind to its owners in the last few years. Since the NBA changed the draft lottery in 1995, the second worst team has landed the #1 overall selection once (Philly, Allen Iverson). Even more depressing is the fact that in those 11* years, the 2nd worst team has only ended up with the 2nd pick twice (2002, Jay Williams; 2006, Ty Thomas who was then traded to Portland, 2006). The second worst team has ended up with the 4th worst pick six out of the last eleven years. The players grabbed at the 4th spot those years? Rasheed Wallace (1995), Antawn Jamison, who was immediately dealt for Vince Carter (1998), Lamar Odom (1999), Marcus Fizer (2000), Shaun Livingston (2004), Chris Paul (2005). Not a bad haul. Also on the bright side, the pick has only fallen to its worst possible outcome once, when the Warriors took Jason Richardson with the 5th pick.

The possible lucky teams? Well, the third worst team has won as many top two picks (5) as the worst team has over the past few years. And the fifth worst team has managed to sneak into the top two four times. The worst team to win the lottery was the Washington in 2001 (8th worst team) but their luck didn't hold as they took Kwame Brown with the pick.

So what does this all mean? Absolutely nothing. We still have the 2nd best chance at the top pick and around a 40% chance at a top 2 pick. Really all it is is a reminder not to count your Buckeyes (or Longhorns) before they hatch.

* This does not include 2003 in which there was a tie for last place so the distribution of ping pong ball was altered. The Cavs and Nuggets had an equal shot at the first pick. Cleveland won the lotto, Denver ended up with the third pick. The 6th worst Grizzlies won the 2nd pick (but had years earlier dealt it to Detroit for Otis Thorpe).

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

While it's early to tell, right now Chad Ford, just in his NBA lottery, is predicting 8 of the top 14 picks to be freshman: Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Brendan Wright, Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young, Chase Buddinger, Darrell Arthur, and Brook Lopez. So what did the one year get for these young men? Kevin Durant was helped the most as people got to see just how good he really is. He's been able to leapfrog Greg Oden on many people's draft boards. Oden, who would have been the consensus #1 in last year's draft, injured his hand and has possibliy lost the #1 pick. The injury has forced him to work on his off-hand but I don't think there's been too much improvement that we wouldn't have seen had he been on the Raptors this year. Both Oden and Durant were men amongst boys and obviously were ready to start their NBA careers.

The rest of the youngsters probably won't fare much better than the average straight from high schoolers did in their second year. Brandan Wright has put on ten pounds but is still needs to work on his game. Likely the third pick in the draft, he's unlikely to be ready to deliver from day 1. Spencer Hawes has a more developed game but also has issues with athleticism that aren't going away no matter how many credits he took this semester. Neither he, Brook Lopez, nor Hasheem Thabeet have really shown enough to make you think they are sure-fire pros. Then again, nobody's pointing at their flaws and saying they aren't potential lotto picks so it might be best to come out now before getting exposed. Chase Buddinger, Darrell Arthur, and Thad Young have been solid and at times, disappointing. Arthur is more ready than originally thought but still probably won't be ready for minutes in the NBA on opening night. The one year in college has helped scouts get more familiar with the frosh but whether they can make it in the pros or not is still as big of a crap shoot as before.

Another possible monkey-wrench in this draft is at point guard. D.J. Augustin has declared that he won't be declaring for the draft, but it's hard to argue against him leaving school. More strength could always help but Augustin is already being called a lottery pick by some and in a draft that seems void of point prospects aside from Acie Law it would make sense to come out this year rather than wait a year when point guards OJ Mayo and Derrick Rose are being touted as two of the top five picks. If Augustin stay in Austin, someone else (Conley, Crittenton, Lawson) might leave before being "ready" so they can strike while the iron's hot. While staying in could help, the risks: injury, coming out in a PG loaded draft, or becoming the next Chris Thomas (supposed lotto pick who tanked after not leaving school his sophomore year) are daunting.

The big loser of the group, however, is Bill Walker. Walker was fighting to be eligible for this year's draft and started playing at Kansas State in the second semester however he tore up his knee and needs 6 - 8 months to rehab. Whether he'll get his athleticism back in full is anyone's guess. Also struggling was Paul Harris, who came into school as a man who could play many positions and is now looking like a player who doesn't fit any spot. At 6'4, he's going to desperately need to learn to play the point because his shot (69% FT, 1 - 19 from college 3) isn't going to cut it at the 2 or 3. 5 star recruit and ironically named Derrick Caracter might be better off leaving, in spite of a mediocre season, since he is on thin ice and might not want to risk getting back into Rick Pitino's doghouse or suspended again.

As for the non-freshman in the draft, there are more question marks around them than the freshman. Staying in school hasn't exactly helped many "can't miss" prospect; the Florida trio of Noah, Horford, and Brewer hasn't lived up to the hype this season and preseason lotto locks like Josh McRoberts and Marcus Williams didn't do much to get any NBA teams excited about adding their names to their rosters. Guys like Al Thornton and Alando Tucker have moved up but where they rank is anyone's guess. Meanwhile, Nick Fazekas, Aaron Afflalo, Aaron Gray and others have stayed in and seen their games and their stock stay the same.

And then there's the first non-high school rookie class. The 2006 draft looks like one of the worst in recent memory as very few, if any, of the players were ready to make a big impact on a team in their first year. And despite not having any straight-from-high-schoolers, the draft is littered with projects and guys whose games suddenly don't seem to be what teams expected.

So in the end, the age limit hasn't really helped anyone save for Boston, Memphis, Philly, and Milwaukee who've all fallen on hard times and have a shot at an elite level player at the head of this draft while the Raptors, Bulls, Bobcats, Blazers and Hawks had to settle for a watered-down class.

Posted by SoulHonky at 11:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Words can't express... just go to the story over at Nike.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

While the Celtics are looking at a lot of big names, either in deals or in the draft, we shouldn't forget to keep an eye out on smaller targets that could help the team out. My main smaller target in the offseason would be:

Jose Calderon, PG Toronto Raptors: I don't know why the Raptors are looking to move him but word around the deadline was that they were offering him up for Anderson Varejao. Calderon is a 25 year old true PG who has played well for the Raptors this season while backing up TJ Ford, and also filled in admirably when Ford was out. I'm not sure how likely it is but I'd be willing to give up a good amount for Calderon. Ideally, the offer would be something like Perkins or Gomes and Telfair but I might even be willing to give up both Perk and Gomes (or Perk and West) if we also got back a future pick of some sort.

As for free agents, there's a number of guys that I'd like to keep an eye on:

Defensive Minded Swingmen:
While I'd love to get Gerald Wallace, he's likely going to be a) too expensive and b) his shot isn't great which is something we need with Rajon Rondo looking to be our best PG.

Charlie Bell, G Milwaukee Bucks: With Mo Williams, Earl Boykins, Bell, Patterson, and young Turk Ersan Ilyasova all looking at free agency, it's doubtful the Bucks will be able to keep everyone. Bell's a tough defender who can hit the three and might be interested in leaving Milwaukee since he could see more playing time and a bigger role in Boston. His playing time shot up this season but with Michael Redd and Bobby Simmons healthy next season, those minutes might be gone. Bell is a longshot but would be a great fit alongside Pierce.
Devin Brown, G New Orleans Hornets: Solid defense, solid three point shooter. With Tony Allen possibly out for some of next season, Brown is an affordable backup/spot starter.
Ime Udoka, SF Portland Trailblazers: Udoka is basically everything that the Knicks wanted Jared Jeffiries to be, except a a fifth of the cost. Like Brown, Udoka is a solid guy to have coming off the pine as his shooting has improved and he is a solid defender. He could fill in as a starter now and then.
Roger Mason Jr., G Washington Wizards: When Mason's gotten the chance, his stroke has been pure and he could be a solid combo guard to bring in if we end up dealing Delonte. Mason's all-around game is tough to gauge as he currently plays alongside Agent Zero and most of his offense is basically waiting to see if Hibachi, Butler or Jamison need to kick it out.

Backup Big Men:
I'm still a believer in Kendrick Perkins but the guy just can't stay healthy. And while Brian Scalabrine has been much better this season, the Celtics need to find a useful big to replace Kandiman.

Mikki Moore, C New Jersey Nets: A journeyman, Moore has been very solid for the Nets this season and would be the perfect candidate for backing up Perkins or Jefferson in the middle. Unfortunately, it might take more than he's worth to get him out of New Jersey.
Melvin Ely, PF/C San Antonio Spurs: Ely, one of the many mid-first round big men sleepers who never awoke, is a big body and seems to have the potential to be a decent backup. You could do worse.
Primov Brezec C Charlotte Hornets: Brezec would be a nice signing for cheap but there's a lot of issues. He's been banged up all season, is terrible awkward on defense, and is a prime candidate for good numbers on a bad team. If he opts out, he'll likely be looking for more than the 2.8 million he is set to receive and he seems like too big of a risk to be worth that.
If none of these guys are the answer than the Celtics best option will likely be to draft someone in the second round. A risky pick would be Sean Williams, out of (literally) Boston College or a Euro like Marc Gasol.

Flyers aka Allan Ray's spot:
Most of these guys will likely be re-upped by their current team but if an opportunity opens to sign Washington's Aundray Blatche, Milwaukee's Ersan Ilyasova, Detroit's Amir Johnson, Miami's Earl Barron or Indiana's James White, it would be worthwhile to save a spot for them.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

So far this season has been terrible and great. The terrible is obvious: injuries, historic losing streaks, two deaths in the Celtics family. The great, however, is also obvious: Al Jefferson has emerged, Gerald Green looks like he's learning how to actually play basketball, Rondo is looking like a keeper, and Gomes' range has improved. At the start of the season, I said that wins and losses didn't matter and that all that was really important was improvement and I stand by that. Overall, I think the injuries were a blessing in disguise. If the Celtics remained healthy, we might be able to fight for the 8th spot in the playoffs but personally, I'd prefer a shot at a true superstar at the top of the NBA draft.

There is one downside to all of this losing and that is the effect it has on your veteran superstar. And lately, the rumors of Paul Pierce's attitude have not been the greatest. A lot of his comments echo that of Vince Carter before he forced his way out of Toronto. While I think Vince is a far bigger punk than Pierce is, I also think that Paul needs at least a glimmer of hope in the last two months to get his hopes up for the near future. Al Jefferson's emergence has been impressive but he needs to do it against the top teams to help give Pierce a reason to want to stick around. While Al's rebounding has been impressive against everyone, he's about to go on a stretch where he's facing top level big men and teams that he's averaging around 12 to 14 points against. If Pierce is going to buy into the "One More Year" philosophy, Big Al is going to have to step up against these teams. I don't see Pierce sitting on the bench, looking down at Wally Szczerbiak, Tony Allen, and Kendrick Perkins and thinking to himself, "Yeah, if these guys are healthy we should be all set."

The remaining schedule is tough but if the Celtics are as good as Ainge likes to think they are, they should be able to steal a couple of quality wins and be, at the very least, respectable at the end of the season. If the season progresses as it has to this date, the Celtics beating bad or banged up teams and losing to pretty much every true playoff contender, then it might take a lot to convince Paul Pierce that one draft pick is going to make all the difference.

Posted by SoulHonky at 07:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

OK, it's way too early for mock drafts. We don't know who is coming out. We don't know the order. But we do know that the lottery is the most exciting thing that Celtics have to look forward to in the coming months so why the hell not...

1. Boston: Greg Oden
If Boston gets the first pick, they could have a decision for the ages: Kevin Durant or Greg Oden. On the bright side, it's the kind of decision that you can't really go wrong with. Right now, I'm still sticking with Greg Oden. Durant is amazing but there's just something about his that irks me right now. I think he'll be great but I just can't pass over a franchise center for him.

2. Memphis: Kevin Durant
Lowry/Gay/Durant is a great backcourt (and if you aren't sold on Rudy Gay then replace him with Mike Miller). Keeping Gasol get them back to being a first round loss but they might be better dealing Gasol for a couple of young guys. I think Gasol for Theo Ratliff, Al Jefferson, and Delonte West would be a good deal for Memphis (although they might want more than West).

3. Philadelphia: Brandan Wright
For all the bashing of the A.I. trade, the Sixers could come out of this draft with a very nice team. This draft is looking like it is going to be very deep and the guys available at the middle and end of the round will have almost as much potential as the guys in the mid/late lottery. Wright proves to be a nice complement to Igodala and Dalembert. If Brandan can help out at all next season, a Miller/Iggy/Korver/Wright/Dalembert lineup won't be too shabby.

4. Milwaukee: Julian Wright
The Bucks could need a point guard if they can't re-sign Mo Wiliams but right now it's looking like none of the top PG's will be entering the draft. Wright seems like the best option here but a lot depends on his ability to guard NBA small forwards. In fact, defense might be the most important factor because the Bucks simply can't afford to team another poor defensive player next to Charlie Villenueva.

5. Seattle: Yi Jianlian
If the Sonics want to fill seats, catering to the large Asian population in the area would be a good way to start. Jianlian is no Ichiro but he's a talented player who could help sell tickets. He's also a project and with Rashard Lewis looking like he's about to opt out, it makes sense for the Sonics to blow it up and rebuild. The Sonics could walk out of the draft with a couple of lottery picks if they decide to move Ray Allen and Luke Ridnour. A lot of people would rank Joakim Noah in the top 5 but the Sonics have taken low post players in the past three drafts (Robert Swift, Johan Petro, Saer Sene) so adding yet another guy with no perimeter shot makes no sense. Jianian's shot makes him a better fit.

6: Charlotte: Jeff Green
If Chase Buddinger leaves early, this might be the team that takes him. Noah's fall continues because the Bobcats already have Sean May and Emeka Okafor and need a perimeter player more than another big man. With a ton of cap space to go after a scorer, I think the Grizz are best off taking an all-around player who could fill in if Gerald Wallace leaves via free agency. This is likely the spot where the draft's high riser will go. Right now, the swingmen in this draft are hit-or-miss and a good tournament could elevate Marcus Williams, Aaron Afflalo, or Rodney Stuckey into the top of the lotto.

7: Phoenix: Joakim Noah
Noah falls but really couldn't have asked for a better place to play. Phoenix runs and fits Noah's strengths. Phoenix needs defense and rebounding off of the bench and that's what Noah can provide. Noah could easily be viewed as a bust in the wrong system so this would be the perfect scenario for him.

8: Portland: Corey Brewer
The Trailblazers have young players at every position but they don't exactly seem set anywhere. I'd be surprised if the Blazers held onto their pick but if they do, Brewer, who can play defense and is seen as a glue guy in Florida, would make the most sense. The Martell Webster project hasn't shown many signs of life and none of the PG's likely available don't seem worth this high of a pick. Acie Law could earn this spot with a good tournament but for now I think Brewer is the pick.

9: Chicago: Al Horford
I really doubt that the Bulls hold onto this pick but if they do, I think Horford's defense gets the call. Yes, the Bulls need more help on offense in the post than defense but I just can't imagine Paxson and Skiles taking Josh McRoberts over Horford, who could turn out to be one of the top four players in this draft.

10: Sacramento: Josh McRoberts
McRoberts, like Noah, is a guy that could be a bust in the wrong system. In Sacramento, however, his passing skills will be of the utmost importance and he seems like a capable replacement for the Brad Miller, who seems to be reaching the end of his usefulness. With Bibby, Artest, and Martin on the wings, McRoberts is a nice fit as someone who can run the offense from the post and distribute the ball amongst the scorers.

11: Warriors: Marco Belinelli
And what would the lottery be without the Golden St. Warriors? The Warriors desperately need a shooting guard who can knock down threes with consistency and this Italian seems to be the best prospect for that. Also, this pick fits in with Don Nelson's love for foreign players. The Warriors might be tempted to add a big man but I think adding a shooter alongside of Monta Ellis is their best best.

12: LA Clippers: Rodney Stuckey
I really haven't seen this guy play so this is all based on reports I've heard/read but it seems like Stuckey might be the prime candidate for the Pre-Draft Workout Leap. Comparisons have been made to Dwyane Wade and Randy Foye (but also Dajuan Wagner). While he's more of a tweener than a pure point, he seems to be a solid choice for the Clippers as he could be a comlement to or replace Shaun Livingston, depending on if he can recover from his injury. This may be way too early for Rodney, but right now I'm going to have him as a high-riser/sleeper.

13: Clippers: Marcus Williams
Williams has been a disappointment this season but he would be a great complement to Stuckey. Both guys can play either position and Williams would allow Stuckey to focus on scoring and not have to pull back the reins and waste time trying to become a pure point guard. Some question Williams' intensity but the Clippers signed Tim Thomas to a big deal so I wouldn't bet the Clippers were one of the teams asking about that. Williams is a definite risk as their does seem to be a little Terrence Morris in him. Morris was the Maryland Terp who looked like a lotto pick after two years but stayed in and watched his draft stock plummet. Williams' improvement has been slight and a lot of his numbers (TO's, 3pt% and FT%) have all gotten worse. 68% free throw shooting in particular is something that gives me pause. A bad tournament and Williams could slip into the late first round but for now, I'll go with the Clips adding Stuckey and Williams to go with Maggette, Kaman, and Brand.

14: Nets: Tiago Splitter
Draft-niks love them some Tiago Splitter. He's been rumored to be in draft for the last few years and finally is going to be in it this year. Splitter sounds like the perfect fit in NJ as he's a complementary players on offense and a solid defender. The downside, however, is that he seems to have a nagging back injury. Granted, being injured would let him fit right in with the Nets but they might be looking for someone more stable like Roy Hibbert. Then again, if Vince Carter stays, I'd be surprised if the Nets didn't look to move this pick for some veteran help off the bench or in a package with Richard Jefferson to get a top-of-the-line big man. (The Nets would love it if Spencer Hawes would enter the draft and fall this far but I don't see either of those happening)

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)