Can Danny?

None of the big names made a move this trade deadline which doesn't bode well for the Celtics. While the Chicago Bulls have lost a key piece of their trade flexibility (PJ Brown's expiring deal) they still have ways to make deals (either in a sign-and-trade or by moving Kirk Hinrich). The Lakers trade package is adequate but more importantly, they are in Los Angeles which could prove to be a draw for a star making trade demands. Also, Kobe seems to be maturing while Paul Pierce has been banged up and appears restless, at best. Still, many believe the Celtics will be frontrunners in the up-coming offseason's trade market but when really looking at who's out there and what the team's will want in return, the Celtics' position isn't all that rosy.

The Role of Role Players

The first issue is that most of our young guys are role players and don't carry much weight in trades for superstars. While Gomes, West, Rondo, and Perkins are solid, their inclusions in a deal isn't going to change things all that much. Rick Sund isn't going to say, "Man, I don't know about dealing Ray Allen... oh wait, you'll give us Delonte West too?!" It's possible that we could deal a couple of these guys for a better role player or a troubled talent or that we could ship two of them off to dump Wally and his contract, but given Ainge's track record, we're most likely to re-sign them or deal them for a future draft pick. So the Celtics best assets are Al Jefferson, Paul Pierce, and the first round draft pick. Gerald Green has potential but his trade value is suspect at best. J.R. Smith showed more in two years in New Orleans and was given away. Martell Webster is about at Gerald's level and I don't think anyone sees him as the key piece to Portland's chance at netting a superstar in a trade.
So if we're going for a big star, our best options are the pick, Big Al, and Theo Ratliff's expiring contract.

The Myth of the Expiring Contract

Everyone loves to taut the power of the expiring deal but looking at the current landscape of the NBA, expiring deals aren't as enticing as it once was. Teams that will be interested in expiring deals are teams that are going nowhere and want to blow their roster up, clear the cap, and start anew. Unfortunately for the Celtics, that is not the definition of either Minnesota or Indiana, who could be dealing the two biggest stars, Kevin Garnett and Jermaine O'Neal. The Pacers recently acquired Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy Jr's contracts. If the Pacers gave away O'Neal for absolutely nothing, they'd still have 4/5's of their salary cap spent up on other long term deals into the next decade. The figure is 3/5's for Minnesota who also face the harrowing reality that Kevin McHale has dealt away many of their future first round picks so blowing the team up and tanking is even less of a realistic rebuilding option. Both the Wolves and the Pacers should likely be looking for deal their star player for veterans as opposed to an expiring contracts and young players. The Utah Jazz are a winning team so while they might want to dump AK-47's contract this offseason, it is unlikely that they'd be interested in losing him for an expiring deal and some unproven youngsters. For these teams, the Celtics offer of potential and expiring deals will easily be trumped by anyone offering actual talent to help today.
The Sonics and Grizzzles are candidates to blow it up but they are also teams that need to reinvigorate their fan bases. While Gerald Green's slam dunk contest victory was fun, if he can't prove himself on the court, his value in a trade to these teams in minimal to these teams. Rashard Lewis' decision on whether or not to opt out could be huge. If he leaves, the Sonics might risk being terrible and move Ray Allen but if he doesn't, they could likely be looking for package their draft pick and a couple of their veterans to land a top player.

The Lack of Importance of Youth The other great asset the Celtics have is youth. Memphis seems to be the team most likely to be shopping for young players but they've already said that they aren't buying what we're selling. Maybe things would change if we added a top three pick into the mix but since the Grizz were holding out for both Luol Deng and Ben Gordon, both established talents, one would think that they'd likely demand Al Jefferson over Gerald Green (unless Green shows major improvement this second half). Either way, it will likely take two of our best assets to get Gasol here, leaving little left to fix a roster that is more than one star big man away from truly contending. The other team that could be interested in youth is Portland but Zach Randolph's contract is huge and the questions about his attitude are just as big, Also, they too would be more interested in Jefferson or our pick than Green or the rest of our young guys so how big of a step up it would be is questionable.

One team that might be interested in what we have to offer is Golden St. But most people don't seem all that fired up about Baron Davis. Still, you'd have to think the Nellie would be happy to open up cap space and add a young player like Gerald Green to run alongside of Jason Richardson and Monta Ellis. Then again, he might also push for the C's pick which would be a lot to give up for a gimpy kneed veteran shoot-first PG. New Jersey might blow their team up but Jason Kidd wasn't winning with Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson, and Nenad Krstic so I'm not sure how much better things will be in Boston.

In the end, this could be a season of blockbuster deals but it looks like Danny is going to have to roll the dice and possibly overpay for someone if we have any chance of reeling in one of the big fish. Realistically, the Celtics should probably be looking for people a notch below what they are hoping for and make moves for guys like Artest or Bibby. And if those names don't interest you, then the fact of the matter is that when you here that there's a deal with Boston involving a superstar, that star will be Paul Pierce.

Posted by SoulHonky at 11:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

DJ passed away today after collapsing during practice for the NBDL's Austin Toros. He was 52 years old.

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

To be fair, Danny Ainge deserves one more year. I know that might sound crazy coming from the guy who starts a site called Can Danny but it's true. When you look at it, it seems obvious that the fair thing to do would be to give Ainge one more offseason to make his plan come to fruition. He has spent four years collecting assets and is going to have Theo Ratliff's expiring deal to package them with. His brainchild has suffered injury and injury, which you can't hold against him. And his draft picks have panned out fairly well and are starting to mature. So yeah, in the interest of fairness, Danny deserves another year.

Unfortunately for Danny, the Celtics organization's concern shouldn't be "being fair", it should be "winning championships". While Danny's run into his fair share of bad luck, much of it, as Branch Rickey would attest, is the residue of his design. He's surrounded Paul Pierce with a team of might-be's and barely-were's so of course they are going to struggle when Pierce is out. Ainge has recently stated that he never planned on having so many young guys on the roster but no big trades have presented themselves over the last few years. Shouldn't this have been expected? While Danny has spent his many drafts on collecting assets instead of building a team, he's been picking in the mid-to-late first round, a place where you can find players but not anyone who's likely to have a ton of trade value. It's like saying that you are going to go out and sign a bunch of young role players and hope that a few of them pan out better than most people expect so you can then trade them for the players you REALLY want.

While the season hasn't gone as Ainge has planned, the reasons it hasn't were fairly evident from the outset.

Unfortunately, the ownership doesn't agree.

"You can't make a judgment on Danny right now," Pagliuca said. "It's only been four years. If Delonte [West] becomes [Mike] Bibby and Al Jefferson becomes Karl Malone, I'd say Danny has done pretty well."

This quote is distressing on many levels. Mr. Pagliuca has a legitimate point in saying that, due to Danny's go younger-than-young strategy, it's hard to judge the players he's brought in. That being said, the co-owner destroys any good will he might have coaxed from fans by making ridiculous comparisons such as Karl Malone and Mike Bibby. The capper, of course, is that even Pagliuca's delusions of grander (Malone, Bibby) don't have a championship.

The other thing that this overlooks is the logic of Danny Ainge's strategy to begin with. Maybe taking Paul Pierce's prime years and dropping them into a nursery school wasn't the best idea. Perhaps dealing for worse talent but more draft picks isn't the best way to give your superstar (and newly minted 2nd max contract player) a legitimate supporting class. Unfortunately, the ownership has an excuse for that as well. The Globe quoted Wyc Grousbeck as saying, "Most trades are sideways. I can take or leave them. They usually don't work out quite the way you hoped. I'm in favor of drafting and holding." That's basically my opinion on diets, Most of them don't change anything and don't work out. I'm in favor of changing to diet soda and not maintaining my current diet/lack of exercise.

So in the end, maybe the real reason why it's fair to give Ainge another shot is because he has a couple of imbeciles for bosses. I mean, if they are influencing the shots, nobody is going to be able to really put together a winner with them. Personally though, I'd like to think that a competent GM could talk sense into them, and at the very least not make the mistakes of Raef, Wally, Telfair, et al. While Danny might be able to turn things around, it's been his decisions that have helped drive this team deeper into the lottery. It might be nice to give him another shot but so far he's done nothing to actually deserve a last chance. This team needs to improve to be considered fair, so I don't see why being fair should be considered when dealing with the man who put the team together.

Posted by SoulHonky at 07:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)

In what should come as no surprise, the Celtics are not in the playoff hunt this season. And while there have been some bright lights this season, most of the news for the Celtics has been dismal. But, as expected, this is a season of growth and rebuilding so wins and losses aren't the be-all, end-all. Here are some goals for the team and the individual players for the rest of the season.

The Team: 12 wins would mean the Celtics beat everyone they should and also pulled off a couple of upsets. With Pierce back on the roster, they shouldn't be the laughingstock that they were but let's not pretend that they are a .500 team either. On the court, it would be nice to see Al Jefferson continue to be featured, which he usually isn't when Pierce is playing, and Rajon Rondo should be the main floor leader. Ideally, the team will play more team basketball, but the odds are that it will be the Pierce show, which isn't as much a knock on Pierce as it is his teammates. These guys need to shoot when open and take advantage of the openings that Pierce creates by forcing double-teams.

Paul Pierce: The main thing for the Truth is too stay healthy. The wear and tear is starting to take a toll on him and I'm worried that these injuries are the first of many. If the elbow or foot are bothering him, he should sit out. Aside from that, I'd like to see him focus on working the inside-outside game with Al Jefferson.

Al Jefferson: Again, health is an issue as Big Al seems to get banged up more often than not. But continued improvement and more consistency would be his main goals. The consistency part is hard because his touches aren't consistent but I'd like to see him demand the ball more and demand he get his touches. Consistency doesn't just come to you. His defense is getting better but he still needs to work on all aspects of this part of the game.

Rajon Rondo: His shot is a long term issue and one that he needs to spend ample amount of time on during the off-season. For now, defense and becoming a vocal leader on offense are the key. While Rondo is young and makes mistakes, let's not pretend that there's anyone on this team who's above being directed. Even Pierce makes his fair share of bad plays (forcing shots, missing open men, etc.) If Rondo is going to be the starting PG for this team, he needs to take the reins and also be able to be a force on the defensive end.

Wally Szczerbiak: Just stay healthy long enough for the Celtics to trade him.

Ryan Gomes: Gomes needs to get his mid-range jumper to go down with more consistency. He's hitting them at 41%, which is still bad enough to make him someone you can leave open. Personally, I think he's a PF so I'd like to see some more work on his post defense but the main thing is to work on his jumper.

Delonte West: Delonte needs to realize that he's a shooting guard that can get some minutes at the point. He needs to learn how to deal with getting guarded by taller guys and also needs to realize that as a shooting guard, his job is to shoot. He's been completely lost for most of this season, passing up open looks and confused as to when to pass and when to create on his own. Also, his defense needs to be more consistent. He can be servicable at times and then disappear at others.

Sebastian Telfair: Strangely enough, he needs to be more selfish. You wouldn't expect that from somebody who shares some genes with Stephon Marbury but it's true. Telfair doesn't seem to attack the hoop or shoot his foul line jumper until the game is out of hand. Like Rondo's shot, his defense is something that is going to have to be a major focal point this offseason but right now, I'm not sure there's much he can do besides at least trying to stay in front of his man.

Gerald Green: I don't really care about the dunk contest. The bigger issue is that Nate Robinson could thrown down his reverse-toss dunk two or three times in the time it would likely take Gerald to finish the skills competition. Gerald simply doesn't know how to play basketball. It's pretty stunning how bad his skills are. For now, Gerald just needs to learn where to be in the offense and what his role is. Dribbling and throwing entry passes amongst other things (if not everything) can be addressed in the offseason.

Kendrick Perkins: Get healthy and gain some consistency with his offensive game. I don't mind his abiliy on the offensive end but he can go from looking like a legit threat to resembling a retarded kid throwing leaves by the side of the road.

Brian Scalabrine: He's playing with a little more confidence but his three point shot still needs some work. He is what he is and right now, unfortunately, what he is is a Celtic.

Leon Powe: Stay in shape, save your money. I like Leon and hope he gets a shot in the league but for now, he seems anchored to the pine.

Allan Ray: I don't care.

Michael Olowokandi: I doubt he cares so I won't either.

Theo Ratliff: Call Lavar Arrington and other waived NFL players and tell them how great guarenteed contracts are.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)