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November 02, 2006

NBA Predictions: Individual Predictions

I'm not a huge fan of individual awards but here are my picks for some of them:

MVP: Dwyane Wade
ROY: Rudy Gay
DPOY: AK47
Comeback Player: Is Lamar Odom really coming back? If not, Grant Hill.

All-NBA (1st): Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Tracy Mcgrady, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki
All-NBA (2nd): Steve Nash, Allen Iverson, Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Yao Ming
All-NBA (3rd): Chauncey Billups, Paul Pierce, Lamar Odom, Kevin Garnett, Shaq
Note: I'm sure I forgot someone but I'll go with that.

All-Disappointment: Mike James, Peja Stojakovic, Shane Battier, Shelden Williams, Darko Milicic
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October 27, 2006

Since nobody else will, The Opening Rotation

Well, Doc is convinced that he doesn't need a rotation (as rotations are for veteran teams) but I think we need to get our guys solid roles and minutes if they ever are going to come together as a team. So here is the rotation I would go with to start the season.

profile_kendrick_perkins.jpg Center: Kendrick Perkins starts and Theo Ratliff backs him up. As much as I'm impressed by Michael Olowokandi's reemergence as an actual human being, I think he remains planted on the bench. If we have to get a third big man in the game, I would try Big Al Jefferson in the middle to see how he works. Because of this, Kandiman would likely be inactive in favor for PF Leon Powe. I don't think Powe will gain too much from going down to the D-League so I'd probably keep him active and have Kandiman in civies. So in the beginning, Perk starts, Theo's #2, and Big Al gets spot minutes.

9790.jpg Power Forward: I was really hoping that Big Al would earn this spot but I simply don't think he has. As the year's pass, he starts to seem like a shorter and now thinner version of Nice Guy Eddy Curry. While some people like a rip on Eddy because of how much Isiah gave up to get him, Curry is a decent enough big man who simply isn't consistent enough to be a starter. In Al's place, I'd start Ryan Gomes. Big Al would back up and the spot minutes would go to Leon Powe. I want to see what Leon can do early on. Last year, Gomes was relegated to the bench while Brian Scalabrine masqueraded as an NBA player. Let's see what Powe has to offer in the beginning of the season and work from there. I'm sure Doc will work his small ball lineup so that Pierce gets some minutes here but I think that ideas a disaster. Let's see what our personnel can deliver before we start with gimmick offenses.

300px-Wally_Szczerbiak.jpg Small Forward: Wally starts. Pierce backs up. The very few minutes that will be left will go to Tony Allen or Gerald Green. I don't like Szczerbiak but the fact is that we need his shooting/scoring ability on the court if Pierce isn't there. Right now, I'm not convinced that long stretches of a lineup sans our two highest paid players is going to help us win. I'd like to try to work Gerald into games but, for now, he needs to earn his minutes in practice.

Paul-Pierce-34_112609.jpg Shooting Guard: Paul Pierce. Unless Wally comes out and we move Pierce to SF, The Truth will monopolize the minutes here. His backup is Delonte West, who will eat up the rest of the minutes. Doc is going to go with Telfair and Rondo at times but I'm not a fan of a backcourt that has almost no shooting ability whatsoever. If I was running the team, West would get the rest of the minutes with Tony Allen slipping in only if we need a defensive stopper.

Point Guard: Right now, I'd start Telfair but split the minutes 50/50 between him and Rondo. If there are any minutes left (which there really shouldn't be), Delonte gets them. Heading into this season, I'd like to think that running the ball will be a priority and I think having one of our two young runners on the floor at all times is key. To put Delonte in is to downshift a couple of gears. Unless we are getting absolutely killed because of a lack of perimeter shooting, I'd save West for backing up The Truth.

In the end, we would have a solid nine man rotation with Perkins, Gomes, Wally, Pierce, Telfair with Theo, Big Al, Rondo and West. Allen, Green, and Powe would get a couple of minutes here and there. The inactive players would be Kandiman, Veal, and Allan Ray (who'd likely be sent down to the D-League).
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October 20, 2006

NBA Predictions: The Eastern Conference

The CHAMP

Miami: The Champs are back although injuries seem to be an issue at the beginning of this season. A Wade injury is a major setback and could have them repeating 2004 instead of 2005. While Detroit will probably repeat as the regular season champs, when the Finals are over and the dust has settled, the Heat are the favorites emerge with the trophy.

The CHALLENGERS

Detroit: Personally I don't see Ben Wallace leaving as the death knell to the Pistons' fortunes. While he is a big loss, he also isn't a big salary on their ledger which will help out in the long run. Nazr Mohammed is servicable and the team will likely call on Antonio McDyess more often this season. Flip Murray was the biggest move, however, as the Pistons desperately needed some scoring help off of the bench. It also should be interesting to see if either Jason Maxiell or Amir Johnson are ready to step forward and start contributing. The Stones are my bet to take home home court advantage for the playoffs but I can't see them taking down a healthy Miami team in the playoffs.

Chicago: The Bulls made a lot of noise in the offseason but the players that matter are the ones that were there last season. Can Andres Nocioni build (or at least maintain) his playoff level? Will Luol Deng improve his game? Can Gordon and Hinrich take their team to the next level? The Bulls are a tough team to call because there are so many unknowns (Ty Thomas, Thabo, Wallace) and because with PJ Brown's expiring contract and a load of young talent, they could be the frontrunners for a midseason deal that adds a disgruntled star. Right now, Da Bulls look to be a year away from making noise in the playoffs but a deal with Seattle or dare we say Minnesota could make them the favorites overnight.

The MIDDLEWEIGHTS

New Jersey: The Nets road to the title is easy to see: the Big Three (Kidd, Carter, Jefferson) need to stay healthy and the Tres Young (Wright, Boone, Krstic) need to step up. The backup PG spot seems more settled with Marcus Williams, replacing the always-about-to-emerge Zoran Planninic and always-about-to-be-dumped Jeff Mcinnis. A Jason Collins/Krstic tandem isn't terrible and a small ball attack with Uncle Cliffy Robinson could work but this frontcourt still is a major weakness. The biggest weakness, however, is the bench which is, for the most part, young and unproven. Eddie House was a nice addition not exactly what the team needed. This team is in desperate need for a deal to grab another big but right now they don't have the assets to make such a trade. The Nets have improved but they still haven't bolstered themselves enough to be a true title contender.

Cleveland: Lebron. After that, I'm not so sure. Larry Hughes doesn't seem like a good fit to the team and Drew Gooden is always just not good enough when it matters most. Zydrunas Ilgauskas is underrated but isn't a difference maker and the PG situation leaves a lot to be desired. Lebron is one of the league's best but, like Mike, he can't win with The Jordanairres. Until he gets a more suitable supporting cast, James won't be able to lead the Cavs to the promised land.

Orlando: Dwight. Darko. Jameer. All of the young guns are looking good but the key to this season is Grant Hill. How well does Grant play and could they move his expiring deal in a midseason deal to add another star? JJ Redick should be able to add some shooting off of the bench but that's probably all he'll do for his entire career so that pick could have been used on someone better. The Magic came on like gangbusters at the end of last season and that quality of play should carry over into this season however they are still a couple of years away from really making noise in the playoffs.

Washington: The Bullets (as they shall always be known) have a solid enough team but when they say, "This is our year", nobody thinks about winning it all. Moreso they just think about winning a playoff series. This year will be more of the same for Washington although their backcourt did get weaker. Jarvis Hayes and Deshawn Stevenson will likely struggle to hold the 2 guard spot down and the Wiz might be better shifting Antawn Jamison to the 3 and Caron to the 2 for long stretches. Former Celtics Darius Songaila is an underrated signing but this team needed a bold move to change its fortunes.

Indiana: The Pacers are a dangerous team but more often than not they are an injured team which limits their success. A small ball approach with O'Neal at center alongside Granger and Harrington at the forwards could be nice but, again, how much of a pounding do you really want to force JO to take by defending opposing centers? Switch Harrington onto centers? Same issue. Adding Marquis Daniels was a nice move but Larry Bird didn't replace Anthony Johnson at the point. He was one of their best players in the playoffs and one of the few consistent guys on the squad. Marquis Daniels can play some point but you don't really want him to and with Jamaal TInsley being injury-prone and Sarunas being not that good, a real third PG is a must. (And no, ex-C Orien Greene doesn't count). Even with all of these issues, I'd say Indiana is a lock for the playoffs in the six-to-eight range. Unfortunately, another finish like that will likely spell the end of the Jermaine O'Neal era in Indiana.

The LIGHTWEIGHTS

Milwaukee: This team could fall completely apart if the injuries continues to mount but for now they seem like a playoff squad. Ruben Patterson could be a surprise on the court if he can get himself together off the court. Andrew Bogut's injury seems bad but what it really does is benefit Charlie Villenueva who will get to be the man in the paint at the start of the season. He excelled last season when Chris Bosh went down and should be able to hold down the fort until Andrew gets healthy. The Bucks are essentially the Grizzlies East (which is a bit odd seeing as Milwaukee is west of Memphis) as they have good talent, a star leading the way, and no real hope of anything more than a competitive first round loss.

New York: That's right. Isiah is going to have his boys battling for the playoffs. The problem is, with the salaries they are making, they should be doing more than just trying to squeak into the playoffs. Still, finances aside, this team has too much talent to lose. The one thing that could hurt them is if MSG becomes a circus side show which is exactly what occurred last season. Isiah is a proven 40 win coach, which is both good and bad. I have full confidence in his getting this team to the 40 win mark but, at the same time, I think he'd probably have the Mavericks hovering in the mid-40's as well. Injuries are of little concern to this team as they run two or three deep at most positions. They could stand to move a PG for another center but it isn't a dire need. David Lee is highly underrated, which is surprising seeing as he is a white basketball player in New York, while Channing Frye should be ready to build on his rookie campaign. The injury to Jared Jeffries might be a stroke of luck as a good start to the season is important for Quentin Richardson, who last year fell to the bench and never got his head right. He spent more time threatening Marbury's life in practice than actually playing in games. If Q can rebound from his lost season and Isiah can throw together a solid consistent rotation, all should be OK in NYC and they could sneak into the playoffs.

Boston: The Celtics might actually be worse off now that they are better. The team needs a rotation and Doc Rivers has announced that he has decided to forego a set gameplan. I don't remember the last time a team didn't have a rotation and did make the playoffs. The team is far too young at the point and far too weak on the defensive end to truly make a difference this season. They might have had a shot at fighting for the final playoffs spot but the schedule just doesn't work in their favor. While Doc is still fiddling with the small ball lineup and throwing out every possible lineup on the floor, the Celtics will stumble through the beginning of their schedule, which is their easiest part of the year. If they ever do manage to get into a rhythm, odds are that they will be running up against teams that are simply better than them. Paul Pierce's hip injury also gives one pause; how many more years of driving and getting to the line can Pierce's body take? And if he has to guard bigger men in a small ball situation, will that only accelerate the problem? The Celtics are moving in the right direction but, rather than being the year during which Doc makes all the pieces fit, this appears to be the season in which C's fans get to figure out which pieces should stay and which should be sent packing.

Philadelphia: Iverson and Webber have one more go around in them and if Iguodala, Dalembert, Korver and company can step up their games, they might have a shot at the playoffs. Unfortunately for Philly fans, a lot of stars have to align to get the Sixers into the second season. Young guys have to emerge, inconsistent players have to become reliable, and injury-prone players need to gut out a full season. In the end, there are simply too many quesion marks to think that they'll be that many W's in the Sixers' future. The best case scenario for the Sixers is that Webber and AI turn back the clock and show that they are still superstars so that the Sixers can deal them at the trade deadline for some fresh talent. While AI might want to end his career in Philly, this team needs to rebuild and the best way to do that is to move the Answer.

The PALOOKAHS

Toronto: Bargnani won't be ready, Ford is rarely healthy, and Sam Mitchell is a lame duck coach. I'm not sure Bryan Colangelo is all that interested in winning this season as another losing year will give him a great draft pick and will let him go out and hire his own head coach.

Charlotte: This team will show improvement but they still aren't all that great. Gerald Wallace has to slide down to the shooting guard spot as Adam Morrison takes over the small forward role. The key to the season is the health and play of the big men. If everyone can gel and stay intact, they could put together a decent second half of the season, but the first half will likely be a struggle as the team works to find its identity.

Atlanta: All things considered, the worst franchise in sports. Josh Smith should be ready to have a breakout year and Joe Johnson is an overlooked superstar. Marvin Williams will forever be known as not being Chris Paul and Speedy Claxton is already injured. Shelden Williams and Zaza Pachulia will give a yeoman's effort but like the yeoman on Star Trek, they'll end up getting killed more often than not, despite said effort.
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Hollinger admit he's full of shite (sort of)

I have said time and again that PER is the most useless stat in basketball and that it doesn't mean a damn thing when evaluating players. Even John Hollinger finally had to admit that his stat is flawed. While he didn't go so far to admit that his favorite formula is a load of crap, one can't help but read between the lines. His defense for PER is as ridiculous as a stat. He says that Eddy Curry is a monster but can only play 20 minutes per game because of fouls and conditioning. However he defends his rankings by insisting that Curry being "better" isn't a shock.
Curry, for instance, projects to average 22.0 points per 40 minutes and shoot 56.5 percent from the floor; since he averaged 21.0 and 56.3 percent last year, this shouldn't be controversial. The fact this gives him a better projected PER than Kidd may strike some folks as odd based on the two players' reputations, but if he outrated Kidd on this metric this season it wouldn't shock me at all.
The key phrase is "if he outrated Kidd on this metric". Hollinger believes that this is a defense of his system when in reality it is the final proof that this metric has no value to basketball fans. What's the point of projecting a player's stats per 40 if they have no chance of playing 40 minutes a game. Better yet, what guarentee is there that the player would be able to keep up their performance if they had to stay on the court longer? This is like the NFL having a per snap ranking or if track and field aficionados took a person's 400 meter time, multiplied it by 4, and claimed that number would be the sprinters "per mile" ranking. In the end, by Hollinger's rationale, if NBA games were 20 minutes long, Eddy Curry would be better than Jason Kidd. I really don't think there are many non-Knicks fanatics out there who would agree with that.

Hollinger can cop as many pleas as he wants but his preseason projections simply show how ridiculous PER is. At best, this is a fantasy basketball stat. It has no validity when it comes to how well a person plays or the impact a player has. If you have a metric where you wouldn't be surprised if Eddy Curry was ranked better than Jason Kidd, Mike Bibby, Rip Hamilton, and Joe Johnson and claims that there are 107 players projected ahead of Ron Artest, then you need to find yourself a new metric.
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At least Tony Allen has company...

fabolous hands.JPG ...on the police blotter. New reports out of NYC are saying that Sebastian Telfair might have been involved in the shooting of Fabolous.
Skylar John Jackson, 28, also known as Fabolous, was shot and wounded in the left thigh Monday night outside of Justin's, a New York club owned by hip-hop mogul Sean "Diddy" Combs. Telfair was outside of the same club Monday night, and the shooting occurred shortly after a $50,000 chain was ripped from Telfair's neck.

Telfair was observed making a phone call after the chain was stolen.
Now while my first inclination is to bash Danny for trading the #7 pick in the draft for our very own Stephen Jackson, it's hard to tell much from this report. The connection seems flimsy at best unless Bassy has some new-fangled Nextell glock-phone. Then again, getting in any sort of fight over a chain with a guy named Skylar is pretty pathetic.

Innocent before being proven guilty aside, Danny gave up on the Code of Conduct pretty quickly. Trading for a Jailblazer with a gun charge isn't exactly the best way to establish a kinder, gentler environment. Personally, I wish we could go back to time when the only time a Celtic had to deal with the cops was when they were escorting them off of a crowd-filled parquest after another championship. Hell, I've even take the days of racist cops harassing Dee Brown driving while black in a white neighborhood.
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October 19, 2006

Boozer? I thought Ainge was Mormon?

Celticsblog.net cited a story from the Providence Journal:
The word is Ainge would like to make a deal for an accomplished frontcourt player. Last summer, the name being thrown around was Drew Gooden. This time it’s Utah forward Carlos Boozer. The cost probably would be Al Jefferson, whom the Celtics seem to have soured on, considering that a year ago he was on the cover of the media guide billed as a future star and now is a name that seems to surface whenever a trade is mentioned.
I've never been a fan of Carlos Boozer. While he is solid, he's vastly overpaid and has never played at the same clip as he did in trying to earn is contract. Add in the injury issues and I just am not interested. A frontcourt of Wally, Boozer, and Perkins simply isn't championship material. The most obvious deal would likely be Theo and Big Al for Boozer and Arraujo which I would pretty much despise. #7 and Raef for Boozer and Bassy? No thank you. Here's hoping Danny sits on his hands until he can do what he does best, which is draft.
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October 15, 2006

NBA Predictions: The Western Conference

The LOTTO BOUND

Portland: Every team in the West could compete for the playoffs... except the Blazers. That being said, things are looking good in Portland. They have a solid young base and have weeded out almost all of the problem children. I'm still not sold on Zach Randolph as a max player but the team is headed in the right direction. Another top lotto pick and the team should be about to make a move up the standings. As for this season, any hopes they have of getting out of the bottom spot depend on the point guard spot: is Jarrett Jack a legit starter? Is Sergio Rodriguez ready? Can Brandon Roy slide down and run the point? The Blazers could surprise some people in the beginning of the season but in the end, they'll likely be watching Ohio St. games at the end of the season and wondering if Greg Oden will be leaving.

Minnesota: Take Garnett off this team and there's not much to talk about. And for that reason, the talk surrounding this team will be about how much longer Garnett will be around. I'm not sure if they'll be able to swing a good deal during the season so it might be a long season for KG and the Wolves. While there is a team around KG, Kevin McHale didn't build around him. The three ex-C's (Blount, Ricky, Mike James) don't complement the Big Ticket and Randy Foye won't do enough to turn the team around.

Seattle: Not a bad team but not a good one either. Chris Wilcox will show that last year's run of impressive games wasn't a fluke but the rest of the frontcourt is either too young or not too good. Rashard Lewis' contract (will he opt out?) will be talked about ad nauseum but it probably won't be a distraction. What it does affect, however, is what the team can do with Ray Allen. If they deal Ray for young prospects, Lewis might not want to hang around for the growing pains. In the end, it might make the most sense to deal both Lewis and Allen for young prospects and a fresh start.

Golden St.: Every year begins with the Warriors being a candidate for breakout team and every year ends with the team being one year away. The only difference this season is that not so many people are going to fall for their early prospects. Troy Murphy in the middle isn't a terrible idea but I'm not sure if Baron is the ideal point guard to run a fash break team. Defense is still an issue and I don't think the team can score consistently enough to outrun their opponents. I just don't see this team stringing together enough wins to make the playoffs. Memphis: Admittedly, I never expect them do anything but I really can't see them overcoming the loss of Gasol. If they can weather that storm, they might be able to get back to the playoffs for their requisite first round loss. Unfortunately, I don't see Hakim Warrick stepping up enough to fill in for Gasol. Rudy Gay will help keep the Grizzlies competitive but he isn't ready to be the man on a pro team. In the long run, the team would be better off slipping out of the playoffs this season, a better shot at a top prospect in the possibly loaded 2007 draft will do more for them than another playoff appearance. Adding a blue chipper to the young core of Lowry, Gay and Gasol should have the Grizz seing the second round in a year or two.

NO/Oklahoma City: This team won't take people by surprise like they did last season and I'm not impressed by the addition of Peja. Tyson Chandler should be better than he was last season but he'll still be inconsistent and injury prone. The two rookie big men aren't ready to step in and play while David West needs to make the jump from solid starter to leading man in the frontcourt. Until this team shows they can stay healthy and be consistent, they'll come up short of the playoffs.

Sacramento: I hate betting against Ron Artest and I think Kevin Martin is ready to step in and deliver at the 2-guard spot but I just can't see these guys having enough to crack the top eight without a little help. Outside of Ron, I'm not sold on their defensive intensity and they need an upgrade in the frontcourt to do battle with the true contenders out West. Eric Musselman was a great choice for the head coaching job but he needs a year and some new personnel to get this team back into contention. Mike Bibby and Artest should keep this team in playoff contention all season and should be able to pounce on a playoff spot if injuries set back any of the top teams.

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The PRETENDERS

Utah: If this team can stay healthy, Jerry Sloan should get them back into the playoffs. The problem is that they never stay healthy. AK47 is already banged up. Deron Williams should benefit from playing with Derek Fisher (although he too in know hurt). Deron might not make people forget Chris Paul but he should be much improved this season. The bench is a bit of a weak spot which is why injuries are so damaging to this squad. Another 60 game season from Kirilienko and likely another date with the lottery.

LA Clippers: The Clippers were a great story last year and it should be interesting to see if they can repeat their performance. Their bench is a problem. Unlike last year, Corey Maggette needs to stay healthy for this team to make the playoffs again. After years of being the most frugal man in sports, it was surprising to see Donald Sterling break open his bank account. Unfortunately, he needed to pay attention to the recent past and the fact that Tim Thomas always raises his game when a contract's on the line. Sam Cassell is still the floor general but Shaun Livingston has to start battling him for more control of the team. Whle they might make a run at the second round. I still don't see this team as a serious contender for the title.

Denver: JR Smith gives them the shooter they lacked last season while Nene and Reggie Evans should solidify the frontcourt. Carmelo Anthony repaired his image a bit this summer by excelling for team U.S.A but he needs to take over as the leader of this team if they are ever going to make it past the first round. While George Karl is a great coach, I think this team would be better off with a more laid back man running the show. In the end, too much depends on the mentally and physically unreliable Kenyon Martin for this team to go very far. Until they replace K-Mart and Andre Miller (whom I've always thought was one of the more overrated PG's in the league), this team will be good enough to win their division but little else.

LA Lakers: It was a somber offseason for the Lake Show and the team could be better off for it. If this team focuses, they could make a run for the Conference Finals. They still look to be a players away from being a true contender but the Mamba and his amigos should be improved this year. Vlad Rad was a decent addition to the bench but Kwame Brown still plays too big of a role to take this team THAT seriously. Andrew Bynum is still a year away and the bench is the epitome of servicable. It's Mamba or Bust

The SLEEPER

Houston: For some reason, I'm betting on McGrady being healthy this season. While the additions of Battier and Bonzi bolsters the roster, this team's hopes for the playoffs still rests on T-Mac's weary back. Also look out for Luther Head to step up his game if Van Gundy gives him the reins this season. Yao is Yao which is good for marketing but not great on the court. I don't believe he'll ever be more than a second fiddle. It doesn't help that he doesn't have much help in the interior. The PF spot was weak last season and now Stromile Swift is gone and Juwan Howard is a year older. If someone else takes out the Spurs, the Rockets could make a surprising run. Then again, if someone takes out T-Mac, they'll be counting ping pong balls.

The CONTENDERS

Phoenix: Marcus Banks was a solid signing but they didn't address their problems in the frontcourt, instead relying on Amare to come back to fix that issue all by his lonesome. The problem is, Amare isn't going to be Amare. I think that is something people need to accept. His knees still don't sound like they are back to where they should be and they will probably never be where they used to be. While he should help, I don't think he'll be able to do enough to get them to the Finals.

San Antonio: The Spurs spent another offseason making only minimal changes to their team. While some people might say "If it ain't broke, don't fix it", the issue with the Spurs is that, while not broken, their team is starting to show signs of wear. This team won't be as dominant as it was last season but they should still be on the short list of contenders for the crown.

Dallas: The deepest team in the league just got deeper. While Marquis Daniels was underrated and underappreciated, the additions of Austin Croshere, Anthony Johnson, and Devean George will make this team better. Will Ndubi Ebi be the next DeSagana Diop, a high school "bust" who blossoms in a Dallas? The question for this squad still remains, can Dirk lead a team to the title? This team will be tough to beat and right now look to be the favorites to once again rise from the West.
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October 13, 2006

Luke? Really?

jackson.jpg The Celtics have traded Dwayne Jones for Luke Jackson and cash. You know a lotto pick is a bust when he gets dealt for a undrafted scrub big man. Luke is even worse than that since the Cavs also gave up cash just so they could dump him.

Since Lukie has a team option on his contract for next season, odds are he's a one and done in Beantown. Actually odds are that he's none-and-done but you never can tell with Danny. This move might make him think someone like Tony Allen or Delonte West are expendable. However, while some people might hope that we found a diamond in the rough, the truth is that Luke is a poor man's Wally (if said poor man is homeless, decaying diseased, tranvestite albino). At the very least, this gives Doc another option which, in Doc's case, is a bad thing. I can just envision a small ball lineup of Telfair, Rondo, Jackson, Pierce, and Scalabrine. On the bright side, when it comes to Doc's much-desired separation, Luke should comply by making it obvious that he is below the level of Green, Allen, West, Wally, and Pierce.

Seeing as reports have said that Theo Ratliff is already banged up and will be missing a few more games, it would seem that we need Jones for than Jackson. Jones is by no means a legit option in the middle but we need an emergency big man more than a floppy haired bench warmer.


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October 12, 2006

Rondo!

lucie_hd_sldrs.jpg It's only game #2 of the preseason but Rajon Rondo has quickly become my favorite new Celtic. Another great game. Kandiman seems focused on winning the rebound per minute title. Hopefully nobody will inform him that such an award doesn't exist. Overall it wasn't a great game but this is a team still finding itself. Big Al didn't do much, Perk was his typical foul prone self and lo and behold Wally and Theo were out with some sort of injury issues. I'm worried about Theo but Wally can stay on the bench. The only reason I'd like to see him healthy is because he'd be easier to trade then.
In other news, Rondo was one of Marty Burns' ten impact rookies. Granted, I don't know how fired up I am about his list, which also include Steve Novak and not Rudy Gay but still, I'll take any good pub the C's can get.

Meanwhile, this is old news but the lady to the left was a Raptors cheerleader who was fired when it was discovered that she had her own nude site. Personally, I think it's a travesty of justice. She's 22 and a cheerleader so she's already living off of her looks. Why not just go all the way and make some extra loot? Everyone knows cheerleading is just a gateway to porn, illicit affairs, or some other form of degradation. Those damn canuck socialists always sticking it to the cute redheaded entreporneurs.
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October 11, 2006

An Unexpected Separation

cavs_girls2.jpgDoc kept talking about wanting certain players to excel and earn their spots in the rotation but after one game, he's got to be confused. While most of his first unit struggled, the rookie Rajon Rondo and the still-learning Gerald Green looked good. The future frontcourt looked more like the present starting big men as both Perkins and Big Al were much improved in their first game this preseason. How long does Doc stick with his current first team before he shakes things up?

The small ball lineup was miserable. When Drew Gooden is putting your gameplan to shame, you don't just need to go back to the drawing board, you need to pick up the drawing board and then throw out the drawing board. On the bright side, Michael Olowokandi must have mixed up which year was a contract year because the sleeping giant awoke with a very nice game. Granted, it was against the Cavs scrubs but last season he couldn't have grabbed double-digit boards against the Cavs mascot so this was eye-opening. The Kandiman could be winning a roster spot which would help since I'm slightly more comfortable with him as our third center instead of Dwayne Jones and Kevin Pittsnogle.

As for the opponent, why are the Cavs getting so much love? Lebron is one of the best but his supporting cast in anything but inspiring. I still don't like him and Hughes together, their point guard situation is up for grabs, and I'm not a huge fan of the Gooden/Big Z frontcourt. Even though I've always been a big fan of Sideshow Anderson (Varejao) and like what they did in the draft, I think this team needs a lot if they want to overtake Detroit in the Central. (However, that Cavs girls looks pretty damn good. We need to get her on the Celtics dance squad.)
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October 07, 2006

And so it begins...

rrondo01.jpg Early reports from the Celtics camp now are saying that the Celtics are looking at going small with Telfair, Rondo, Wally, Pierce, and Theo on the court at the same time. In my opinion, this is a recipe for disaster. Defensively, we can't rebound and will struggle to defend the post. Offensively, our backcourt can't shoot and Pierce is our only post threat. Essentially, if we don't get out on the fast break we're screwed and the odds of us getting out on the break is nil since we will struggle to stop opposing teams in the post or rebound any missed jumpers. Small ball works when your backcourt can shoot and your little big men can both take a person outside and defend the interior. This lineup struggles in both areas. The fact that we'd be depending on a past-his-prime Theo Ratliff as our stopper is a sure sign of trouble ahead.

Even more distressing is the fact that Doc is already toying with gimmick lineups when he should be focusing on figuring out our regular rotation. We have bigger issues than trying to figure out a gimmicky lineup which seems obviously flawed. Training camp is less than a week old and it's already starting to feel like it could be a long season of yelling at the TV hoping Doc will wake up.

On the bright side, it's great to see that Rondo is earning playing time. Personally, I'd like to just see him as our back-up and move Delonte to the off-guard spot.
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October 05, 2006

Opening Day Jitters

The preseason is here and I'm already a bit nervous. From Doc's first draft of a starting lineup to Sebastian Telfair's promise of playoffs, there are little things gnawing at me. That being said, I'm a lot happier this year than I was at the same time last year so things have improved.

In 2005, the question was "Who are we going to get to fill our needs?" This year, it's "Which player are we going to use to fill our needs?" Doc's cupboard is full but is he going to know which ingredients make a winner? Personally, winning is secondary this season for me. I want to focus on seeing our guys improve and gel as a team. That's one reason why the promises of playoffs irks me a bit. While I love to see confidence, I would also like to know that our guys won't let any setbacks get them down. With a team this young, there's nothing wrong with hard-fought losses. My fear is that with too much pressure to make the second season, simple mistakes will be blown out of proportion and the goals of this season may be lost in translation. A cloud of disappointment over errors will get in the way of people learning from their mistakes. I don't want to see young guys lose minutes because they are still learning the game. Our steadiest lineup is probably Theo, Gomes, Wally, Pierce, and West but sticking with them in crunch time will likely hurt the maturation of our more talented youngsters. I'd rather deal with growing pains than squeeze a couple more wins out of a group with a more limited ceiling.

As for the lineup, after the first day of practice, it was reported that the C's first unit looked to be Ratliff, Gomes, Wally, Pierce, and Telfair. While I'm happy to see Bassy in the starting lineup, I think Ratliff might be a mistake. Al Jefferson will benefit from coming off the pine, however I think it is time for King Perk to be thrown into the fire. He seems to be growing into a leader on this team and I'd like to see him get a shot at starting games. He is more than ready and getting him minutes against the best while they're at their best is the only way for him to continue improving. Also, I'd like to see Ratliff and Jefferson in a tandem so Theo can help Big Al on the defensive end. Again, this is where my vision for the season changes the game plan. While Theo's veteran presence might help the first unit in the crunch, I think his working with Big Al during the game will have more of a long term impact. Big Al needs someone to stay on him on the defensive end and point out his errors. I think Theo is perfect for this. I don't mind a Perkins/Jefferson backcourt but I think Big Al will get more out of teaming up with Ratliff.

But, of couse, the key to this season is that Doc choose a path. I'd rather see him take a route that I don't like than keeping changing which direction he wants to head.
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September 29, 2006

Not what I want to hear from Doc

The Celtics never won three games in a row last season and one of the reasons is that the Celtics rotation was always changing. This season, Doc Rivers needs to realize that the only person that will set the Celtics rotation is Doc Rivers. While it might seem like a given that the coach sets the rotations, Doc is once again dreaming of a world in which the players sort themselves out by their play on the court.
"I don't think we ever had one and I don't think we were a team that should have had one. No one separated themselves enough to have one," Rivers said. "I do think there will be separation this year where last year I don't think I ever made that statement."
Huh? While Big Al might be skinnier now, I'm not so sure he's going to outperform Gomes night in and night out. Perkins is the likely starter but, like last year, his health and foul trouble will be the key to him staying on the court. The backcourt situation is actually worse (in terms of rotation) than last year because it got so much better. The PG spot is completely up for grabs while Gomes, Allen and Green will still battle for Wally's minutes (Not to mention that West will likely also be in the mix for some 2-guard run and Allan Ray could fight for some time).

At least Danny understands the issue, "Doc has some work cut out for him. There's going to be some worthy players of playing time that aren't going to get playing time this year. ... I'm excited that we have those choices." Doc needs to take the reigns of this team and stop with the laissez-faire attitude. The Celtics rotation is not going to work itself out. Well, besides Veal playing himself to the end of the bench. While talent might ride the pine, it's Doc's job to create the "separation" and stick with one rotation. If he hedges his bets like he did last season, the C's will struggle once again to put together a string of wins.
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September 21, 2006

Get to the point

If there's one issue that the Celtics needs to figure out before the season starts, it is who is there starting point guard. Right now, we have Delonte West, Rajon Rondo, and Sebastian Telfair each vying for the reins of the team. This can not be allowed to become a full-fledged PG controversy or else the C's will suffer. In particular, I think Telfair needs to know his role from the beginning. He can't be left out of the loop as he seemed to be in Portland. If the Celtics truly want to be a running team, they need to solidify their point guard rotation or else they'll be headed nowhere fast.

p1_cover030804.telfair.jpg Right now, I think Telfair almost has to start, not only because we traded a lotto pick for him but because his confidence needs it. While he might come off as self-assured, I think another situation like the one in Portland will kill his on-court psyche. He doesn't need to finish the games but starting seems like a no-brainer right now. I've always liked West as a combo guard off the pine and think he'll deliver in that role better than at the point. The wild card is Rondo. He struggles shooting and is a rookie, but his defense could make him a closer. Also, I think Rondo is a perfect mix and match player to help give the Celtics different looks. He and Tony Allen are a very strong defensive team while I'd love to watch him and Gerald Green running the fast break. Then there's the short yet smart backcourt of Rondo and West.

Doc is going to have his work cut out for him when it comes to the rotation but I think he has to lock down his point guard situation before the first tip-off or else the rest of the position battles will be moot.
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