All the Perks
Asked about the biggest challenge of owning the Celtics, Grousbeck said, ``The patience to go `young and athletic,' which is a multiyear process. But the roster we inherited did not have championship upside potential, so we had to go younger and invest long-term."When I read that quote in the Boston Globe, I couldn't have been happier. Do I trust Danny? Hell no, but the fact remains that I'd rather have to deal with Danny building a team at his own pace instead of watching Danny try to cobble together a roster while keeping a couple of impatient venture capitalists happy. Owners always want the big name in spite of talent. Just look at the Red Sox. Theo didn't want Beckett but Larry Lucchino did. As usual, the GM was right while the owner was wrong. (And of course, the Atlanta Hawks prove to be the exception to this rule since ousted owner Steve Belkin knew they shouldn't have given up so much for Joe Johnson). Waiting to make a deal doesn't just make sense, it's the ONLY thing that makes sense. While people can dream up trade scenarios for KG, Jermaine O'Neal, and others, the fact remains that the guys we were most likely getting were on the Kenyon Martin/Carlos Boozer/Zach Randolph echelon. In time, Wally should be healthier but even if he isn't, his contract still becomes more manageable. Not only is Theo Ratliff a great locker room guy but he's a must in the middle (where we really only have Perkins) and will be an expiring deal for the 2007 offseason. Boozer and Randolph are known commodities and would be Celtics for years to come. The problem is that nobody can be sure if the reason for their Celtic tenure woud be because they lived up to their potential and helped the Celtics win or because they struggled and became immovable contracts. Jefferson and Gomes might be bigger question marks in the short term but any failure on their part won't linger over the team for the long term. (Assuming Danny doesn't make a Mullin and sign his busted picks to big, long term deals). This might sound odd but even though I don't think the Celtics will be very good this season; I haven't been this optimistic about our future in quite some time.
Golden State: Baron Davis' name is back in trade rumors and I wouldn't be stunned if he ended up in Beantown. If Ainge thought AI and Telfair could work, he's got to believe that Telfair and Baron could work, especially since Baron's often played alongside another point guard. My bigger fear is that we take on Troy Murphy's deal. Troy is a healthier Raef. He can do some thing but overall he's overpaid and doesn't add enough to help his team win. The Warriors are essentially where the C's could find themselves in a couple years... if we overpay our young guys when their contracts come due. The Warriors are definitely trying to make a move but, right now, they don't seem to have anyone intereted in their young talent.
LA Clipper: The Clippers seem to be set except for Corey Maggette. I'd be stunned if Maggs was a Clipper come playoff time because he can opt out of his contract next offseason, which he'll likely do since he could get a similar deal and doesn't seem exactly wanted by the Clippers. Besides Maggette, I don't see any major moves in the Clippers' plans.
LA Lakers: I wouldn't be stunned to see Lamar Odom traded but right now it seems like the Lakers are heading into the season with him at the PF spot. Andrew Bynum and Kwame might be on the block but I don't know what they'll get for Socks or who would want Brown.
Phoenix: The Suns are hovering around the luxury tax and might have to deal Shawn Marion or Barbosa (who they probably won't be able to resign next season). Kurt Thomas is another candidate but I don't see anyone being very anxious to take on his contract for an expiring deal (and I don't think Barbosa is a good enough asset for someone to swallow Thomas' contract). Orlando and Memphis might be the best options for a Marion deal (Orlando in a salary dump for Hill's contract/picks or Marion/Barbosa/Thomas for Eddie Jones/Swift/Warrick).
Sacramento: Obviously, Bonzi Wells is their main focus. They need to figure out what to do with him or how much they should try to get for him. Let him walk and the Maloofs might miss the luxury tax; resign or sign-and-trade means they'll be paying double for whatever contracts they get. If the luxury tax isn't a concern (which it appears it has become even in Sacramento), the Kings have ten million in expiring contracts in Corliss Williamson/Vitaly Potapenko. I'm sure they also wouldn't mind finding a taker for Kenny Thomas but I don't see anyone biting on that one. Odds are they'll get 25 cents on the dollar for Bonzi in a sign-and-trade and head into the season with the team they have.
* While some people might want to point out that we got the pick with which we selected Gomes in the Eric Williams/Tony Battie trade, it should be noted that that was actually our own pick, one we had dealt to Cleveland for Jumaine Jones.
** Say our team reached the same level of mediocrity that it had in the past, we would have had a mid-level draft pick and probably woudl have gotten Rajon Rondo with it. Our second round pick, however, would have been much higher than the one we traded for. Craig Smith went at our pick (which we dealt in the Wally trade) but seeing as we don't need another PF, I added Bobby Jones, who went the pick after ours.
What is Perkins worth? Myers (Perkins' agent) could probably make a case that Perkins, who still is only 21 (he turns 22 in November) merits at least midlevel-exception money, like the deal the Pistons gave Nazr Mohammed (an estimated $30 million for five years) or even the one the Celtics gave Mark Blount ($38 million for six years) . Myers might also try to make a case that Perkins is entitled to even more. Joel Przybilla re-upped with Portland for an estimated $32 million over five years.This blurb from Peter May makes sense right up to the part where he says, "Myers might also try to make a case that Perkins is entitled to even more". While I do think Myers might ask for more than 5 years and 30 million, May's definition of "more" is the comically low 5 years and 32 million. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think a whopping 2 million dollars over five years really constitutes "more" in today's NBA. I'm pretty sure Miami Vice was still starring Don Johnson and Phillip Michael Thomas the last time $400,000 was the sticking point of an NBA contract negotations. If the worst part of Perkins' negotiations is whether or not we should give him an extra $400K then Danny and Wyc should thank their lucky stars.
The fear with Perkins is that he could hold out for at least two million more A YEAR, not overall. Dan Gadzuric resigned for 6 years, 36 million. Sam Dalembert resigned for 6 years and 60 million. If Perk's agent is worth anything, he's going to be pushing the Celtics towards the Haitian Sensation's tax bracket and saying that Perkins' value is much more than Gadzooky. May argues that the Celtics' counter will be to compare Perkins to Francisco Elson, who just signed for three million a year. Someone might want to tell Peter May that Denver's young talented big man was named Nene and he signed a 6 year, 60 million dollar contract. Francisco Elson is a 30 year old nobody. Youth is a marketable commodity in the NBA and something that none of the people mentioned in May's article have on their side. The youngest guy May mentioned was Joel Pryzbilla and even he's half a decade older than Perk.
Furthermore, the upcoming free agent class is weak (and getting weaker by the second as the members of the class of '03 resign with their current teams) and while May refuses to understand that there will be teams under the cap next season, it's even more ignorant to think that no team would be willing to overpay a 22 year old, hard working, defensive-minded center. The simple and obvious fact is that Perk could demand a solid chunk of change in the open market. The Celtics need to get at him while they still have some control over the situation.
One of the few things the C's have in their favor is Perkins' injury. That is a definite issue and one that could lower Perk's asking price. Some people might, like May, want to point out stats to help the C's cause but Perk's agent would likely point to one stat in particular: minutes per game. Perkins doesn't have the numbers Dalembert had because he didn't get to play Dalembert's minutes. Why should Kendrick be punished for Doc's rotations? In fact, Myers might wonder aloud if maybe Perkins wouldn't be better off somewhere where he could get more minutes and steady playing time? Perkins is a kid coming out of high school heading towards what many people think will be a breakout season; I highly doubt he's going to see his market value as equal to some never-was 30 year old or a disappointing 27 year old, six year veteran who barely puts up better numbers. Finally, a hometown discount seems out of the picture since I'm sure Kendrick and his agent will go for the dough and gladly point out that they are simply following the example set by their captain, who opted for 20 million a year for three years.
Personally, I don't know if Peter May is being ignorant or just setting it up so he can argue that Perkins is overpaid if/when he signs a deal bigger than 6 million a year but to address Perkins' contract situation and state that Perkins could see a five year contract anywhere in the wide range of 30 to 32 million seems disengenuous. To then add that an offer of 3 million a year is even remotely plausible moves the discussion from possibly ignorant to absolutely ridiculous. While I would hope that we could get Perk for just six million a year, I think it's going to take a lot of negotiating to get him and his agent down from around the 8 million a year level. I might not be a fan of the job Ainge has done here, but to outright lie and act like we have a shot at getting Kendrick Perkins for three million dollars a year is unfair and unprofessional.
In my post about the Cavs (and in the Touchables column), I mentioned a three-way deal that could help out the Celtics. Say the Celtics dealt Ratliff and Wally for Chris Webber. (Philly gets Ratliff, Gooden, Snow, Jackson, conditional Cleveland pick for Webber and Korver; Cleveland gets Wally and Korver for Gooden, Snow, Jackson, and a pick.) The particulars have to be worked out but this is a win-win-win for everyone involved.
Paul Pierce wants an All-Star. Paul Pierce has a player option on his contract after this season. If the Celtics wants Paul Pierce to be happy, they better do as he says. All that being what it is, who exactly can the Celtics get? Who is on the block and how much would the Celtics have to give up in order to get them? And most importantly, who is actually going to help us win? These are a few names that we could look to acquire to appease Mr. Pierce.
While Ainge is promising and fans are clamoring for another big move, I don't think a trade is in the cards. I'd like to see if we could get Lamar Odom in a deal for Wally Szczerbiak or maybe investigate getting one of Seattle's big men for Delonte West, but as of now, I believe the roster is set. Or should be. Danny has said he's not done dealing but he's made one solid deal so, with his trade history, I wouldn't push his luck.
Assuming Pierce isn't going anywhere, Wally is our biggest trade piece and I can't see many deals that make sense. Drew Gooden? No thanks. Jamal Crawford and Malik Rose or Q Richardson? I don't see Jamal fitting in now that we have Telfair running the point. Q's contract is garbage. Would Indiana be willing to give up Granger or Shawne Williams in a deal? Probably not although Bird is pretty horrific so who knows. Maybe he likes Wally for Sarunas, Granger and Croshere's expiring deal. The big names, KG, JO, Marion, Richard Jefferson are likely out of reach.
Honestly, I just don't see a worthwhile deal shaping up and if we wait a year, Theo Ratliff's contract will be expiring and Wally's contract will be one year shorter. Also, he'd hopefully not be coming off of end-of-season surgery which would make it easier to move him. This is shaping up to be 2003 all over again. Danny might feel he needs to make a move (like he did with Walker) but he would be better off waiting a year so that our assets have more trade value.
Despite people's assertions that Ainge is the master of the smokescreen, Danny has usually been fairly forthcoming with his picks. He expressed his interest in Banks and Perkins fairly early and showed his hand on Robert Swift as well as Al Jefferson fairly early. While I think it would be a major mistake to pass on Rudy Gay, Danny has passed on an uber-athlete for a player that he felt was a bigger need (Big Al over Josh Smith). Right now, it's looking like Marcus Williams is the most likely option. I really want Rudy but wouldn't be stunned if, like Andy Katz said, we passed on him to take his UConn teammate Williams.
The Power Forward position is an interesting one. We have one of our best prospects at the 4 and had one of our most surprising performances of the season come from Gomes at that spot, but it still is a position that most people aren't very confident in. So where do we go, if anywhere?
The Current Tenants: Raef Lafrentz, Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes
As I see it, C's fans are hoping Big Al makes this his spot for years to come, Ryan Gomes is hoping to solidify his hold on the spot after a nice spurt in the second half, and pretty much everyone wants Raef gone. Of course, Brian Scalabrine could get some minutes here but why bring his name up when we were in such a good mood?
The Free Agents
The Big Ticket Items: Ben Wallace, Chris Wilcox
The Mid-Level Luxuries: Lo Wright Tim Thomas, Keith Van Horn, Reggie Evans, Clarence Weatherspoon, Vlad Rad, Aaron Williams
The Bargain Bin Jackson Vroman, Marcus Fizer
Needless to say, the free agent market at the four spot is not looking very enticing. Wallace is the best but he's getting older while Chris Wilcox came on at the end of the season essentially making himself some money and pricing himself off of the Celtics. I've always been interested in Marcus Fizer and wouldn't mind looking at him for an emergency backup. Vlad Radmanovic is the Euro-Raef so I'd rather not even consider that. With two solid young power forwards, C/F Aaron Williams makes some sense. He's a legit C/PF who, while getting long in the tooth, is still solid defensively and a low paid hustle player. He and Lo Wright are probably the most realistic options for the Celtics in the front court free agent market.
The Trade BaitIdeally, the C's would go after a two-for-one deal where we could get a player who could start this year and slide back to backup Big Al when he's ready. There are more options out there then were mentioned but those were the most likely big name guys on the market. Most of these trades depend on Raef Lafrentz, how much other teams like him and how much more we'd have to give up to get rid of him. Getting rid of Gerald Green or Big Al seems like too much in most cases.
The DraftThe Celtics didn't make the playoffs, but that was to be expected with this young squad. While Big Al didn't show us as much as we wanted, we saw solid outings from Delonte West and Kendrick Perkins and the rebirth of The Truth. Ainge rejiggered the lineup yet again, adding another big contract but subtracting one big headcase in Mark Blount. Let's take a look at the job Danny did this year.
The Declining of Marcus Banks' Option: In this case, Danny went away from what I thought was a no-brainer. I've always been a fan of Banks, despite all of his flaws, and couldn't understand why we wouldn't pick up the option on his rookie deal. It wasn't like he was a disaster for this team. Very few rookies have had their option dropped and Marcus was better than all of them. This just made no sense to me but it actually worked out in Marcus' favor as he is looking to start collecting a legit NBA contract a year earlier (and after a half-season of very solid basketball in Minnesota.) While some people said that they thought this would help motivate Banks, that never really seemed to be the thinking for the C's since they dumped him as soon as he had proven that he was healthy. If anything, it just showed that Danny knew what I had suspected for some time: Marcus Banks was never going to fit in or mature on the Celtics. For whatever reason, he never got his shot, could never fit into the club. I think Marcus is going to turn out to be a very solid point guard but that was never going to happen while he was on the Celtics.
The Draft: Ainge gets a solid A for the draft. Green and Gomes were no-brainers where they went. Both times the pick before us came, I pretty much knew we would get whoever wasn't picked. in the first round, it was Granger or Greene. In the second round it was Gomes or Blatche. However, while the choices seemed obvious, you can't overlook the fact that Danny did what made sense, take the guy who fell in your lap instead of sticking with a pre-draft plan that didn't include the incredible slide of Gerald Green and Gomes. The only reason it is an A and not an A+ is that Danny's promise to Orien Greene prevented us from getting Amir Johnson.
The Signing of Veal: Bad from the word go for both parties. Brian left the perfect situation in New Jersey to come to a team he didn't fit. The Celtics got a mismatched talent and gave him a contract he most certainly didn't deserve. Even worse, we agreed to this deal before the signing period and basically took ourselves out of the free agent season since we used a good portion of the MLE on him. This is a perfect example of Danny signing guys who work in theory but not in practice. Scalabrine was never what we needed. He doesn't add defense or spot-on three point shooting from the wing. He doesn't add anything besides improved passing from the post. He makes good decisions but he's not the right fit for this team. Also, Ainge insisting that Doc try to work him into games early in the season could have been one of the reasons that Ryan Gomes languished on the bench for so long.
The Antoine Walker Trade: I don't really consider this a true trade because it was basically a favor to Antoine so that he could get more money. And in that case, it was a good move because now Antoine is overpaid in Miami. Had we not traded him, he'd have had to have signed at a more reasonable rate. I thought Curtis Borchardt would have been able to hang around for at least a little bit but apparently he was never in our plans. Part of me really wonders how we didn't get anything of use out of a five team deal but it really isn't a big deal.Signed Will Bynum: Nothing came of this. He turned out to be a pretty good player in the NBDL but we didn't keep his rights and he went over to Golden St. Another inconsequential move, neither good nor bad.
Failed to resign Gary Payton: Really, what was the point of keeping Gary? Best case scenario, he helps us win a few more close games and we have a better chance at skating into the 8th playoff spot. We're better off with a lottery pick so not keeping the Glove made sense.
Traded for Dan Dickau: I liked the deal then. Dan's a solid PG on offense but an absolute abortion on defense. He's a solid backup. In hindsight, though, I'd rather have our second round pick instead of Dan. I still don't mind the deal but part of me wishes we had a second round pick to find a solid young talent with.
The Trade: Getting rid of Mark Blount was a great move. I'll always have that to hold onto as the silver lining of this trade. Other than that, I'm not happy with this deal. I'm not a fan of Wally at all and like him even less now that he's injured. Another issue I have with the deal is that we consolidated all of our mid-level contracts and got another big, hard-to-move contract. This deal made little sense to me and also was another example of Danny ignoring the salary cap and the importance of defense. While I know Danny loves to say that cap space is overrated, he needs to realize that spending that cap space on guys like Veal, Raef, and Wally isn't exactly worthwhile. Wally is a fourth option getting paid to be a second option. I thought this trade was bad when Danny made it and nothing has transpired to make me change my opinion.
Those were the moves of Danny Ainge this season and they looked a lot like the moves he usually makes: great draft, questionable trades, horrendous signings. Something else that is problematic is that his best acquisition of this season (Gerald Green) isn't a part of what he proclaimed to be the Celtics' core. Gerald's name was noticably absent (as was Gomes' who later played his way into Danny's good graces) and if the C's are looking to make a move this year, it will likely take at least one of our young players to make something work. Trading Gerald Green would be a massive mistake and one that I wouldn't put past Ainge. This is perhaps the most nerveracking offseason in the Danny Era because there are so many mistakes out there that could be made. Does Danny feel the need to add a big ticket veteran in order to win now? Is he still confident in the youngsters or has he soured on any like he did with Marcus?
Danny likes to say that he is rebuilding "on the fly" which is kind of comical because we are a lottery team now. If this is "on the fly" then the engine is sputtering and were buzzing some tree tops. What is on the horizon? Only Danny knows. And, after his moves this offseason, that makes me very uncomfortable.
Move #1: Paul Pierce for Chris Paul. I'm not sure how to make this work but I would go hard after Chris Paul. This kid is going to be a stud PG for years and those are impossible to find. Put the right cast around this kid and you have the catalyst for a championship team. While some people think this isn't enough for Pierce, I am already sold on Chris. I really don't think we could get much more from them. Maybe J.R. Smith who is in the doghouse. Pierce is great but I'm very nervous about the extension he is about to sign and personally, I don't think this group of talent that Ainge has collected works as a team.
Move #2: Al Jefferson and Delonte West for Josh Smith, Salim Stoudamire, future #1 pick: I think Josh Smith is going to be a superstar, and while I like West and Jefferson, I think both will pale in comparison to J-Smooth. This trade is admittedly very risky since we haven't seen the third year of Jefferson, and he will be better than he was this past season. The Hawks make this deal because West and Jefferson are good fits to their lineup. West is a good guard to use alongside Joe Johnson, who runs the offense. Jefferson is a legit PF and low post thread which the Hawks need. Marvin Williams moves to the 3. The hidden value in the deal is the future first round pick. It's the Hawks. They'll find new ways to be bad so this holds good value for the future.
Move #3: Three Way Deal with Portland and New York:
Move #4: Dump Dickau for a second round pick I'd like to get a second round pick and take a flyer on Marcus Vinicius or another foreign prospect who we wouldn't bring over this season.
Free Agency : My first call would be to Lorenzen Wright. Ideally, we'd go after both Matt Harpring and Wright but we simply don't have the cap space for that. I'd take a look at an inexpensive big man (Lo Wright, Jarron Collins), and a shooter from the swingspots (Voshon Lenard, Rasual Butler, Eric Piatkowski). For the final spot on the roster I would just look for a young talent that we could hide in the D-league. Amir Johnson would be great but Joe Dumars is probably going to lock him up this offseason. This would leave us with a 15 man roster of:
C: Perkins/Lo Wright/Dwayne Jones
Rose would be gone the next year and Gerald would take his spot in the starting lineup. Tony Allen would fill the backup 2-guard spot.