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March 08, 2007

The Age Limit, Year 1

While it's early to tell, right now Chad Ford, just in his NBA lottery, is predicting 8 of the top 14 picks to be freshman: Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Brendan Wright, Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young, Chase Buddinger, Darrell Arthur, and Brook Lopez. So what did the one year get for these young men? Kevin Durant was helped the most as people got to see just how good he really is. He's been able to leapfrog Greg Oden on many people's draft boards. Oden, who would have been the consensus #1 in last year's draft, injured his hand and has possibliy lost the #1 pick. The injury has forced him to work on his off-hand but I don't think there's been too much improvement that we wouldn't have seen had he been on the Raptors this year. Both Oden and Durant were men amongst boys and obviously were ready to start their NBA careers.

The rest of the youngsters probably won't fare much better than the average straight from high schoolers did in their second year. Brandan Wright has put on ten pounds but is still needs to work on his game. Likely the third pick in the draft, he's unlikely to be ready to deliver from day 1. Spencer Hawes has a more developed game but also has issues with athleticism that aren't going away no matter how many credits he took this semester. Neither he, Brook Lopez, nor Hasheem Thabeet have really shown enough to make you think they are sure-fire pros. Then again, nobody's pointing at their flaws and saying they aren't potential lotto picks so it might be best to come out now before getting exposed. Chase Buddinger, Darrell Arthur, and Thad Young have been solid and at times, disappointing. Arthur is more ready than originally thought but still probably won't be ready for minutes in the NBA on opening night. The one year in college has helped scouts get more familiar with the frosh but whether they can make it in the pros or not is still as big of a crap shoot as before.

Another possible monkey-wrench in this draft is at point guard. D.J. Augustin has declared that he won't be declaring for the draft, but it's hard to argue against him leaving school. More strength could always help but Augustin is already being called a lottery pick by some and in a draft that seems void of point prospects aside from Acie Law it would make sense to come out this year rather than wait a year when point guards OJ Mayo and Derrick Rose are being touted as two of the top five picks. If Augustin stay in Austin, someone else (Conley, Crittenton, Lawson) might leave before being "ready" so they can strike while the iron's hot. While staying in could help, the risks: injury, coming out in a PG loaded draft, or becoming the next Chris Thomas (supposed lotto pick who tanked after not leaving school his sophomore year) are daunting.

The big loser of the group, however, is Bill Walker. Walker was fighting to be eligible for this year's draft and started playing at Kansas State in the second semester however he tore up his knee and needs 6 - 8 months to rehab. Whether he'll get his athleticism back in full is anyone's guess. Also struggling was Paul Harris, who came into school as a man who could play many positions and is now looking like a player who doesn't fit any spot. At 6'4, he's going to desperately need to learn to play the point because his shot (69% FT, 1 - 19 from college 3) isn't going to cut it at the 2 or 3. 5 star recruit and ironically named Derrick Caracter might be better off leaving, in spite of a mediocre season, since he is on thin ice and might not want to risk getting back into Rick Pitino's doghouse or suspended again.

As for the non-freshman in the draft, there are more question marks around them than the freshman. Staying in school hasn't exactly helped many "can't miss" prospect; the Florida trio of Noah, Horford, and Brewer hasn't lived up to the hype this season and preseason lotto locks like Josh McRoberts and Marcus Williams didn't do much to get any NBA teams excited about adding their names to their rosters. Guys like Al Thornton and Alando Tucker have moved up but where they rank is anyone's guess. Meanwhile, Nick Fazekas, Aaron Afflalo, Aaron Gray and others have stayed in and seen their games and their stock stay the same.

And then there's the first non-high school rookie class. The 2006 draft looks like one of the worst in recent memory as very few, if any, of the players were ready to make a big impact on a team in their first year. And despite not having any straight-from-high-schoolers, the draft is littered with projects and guys whose games suddenly don't seem to be what teams expected.

So in the end, the age limit hasn't really helped anyone save for Boston, Memphis, Philly, and Milwaukee who've all fallen on hard times and have a shot at an elite level player at the head of this draft while the Raptors, Bulls, Bobcats, Blazers and Hawks had to settle for a watered-down class.

July 26, 2006

Rajon Rondo's Long Twisted Road to Beantown

arton23638-240x240.jpg This draft, we traded a 2007 first round pick of Cleveland's for Rajon Rondo.

We had traded Jiri Welsch to get that Cleveland pick which we swapped to Phoenix for Rajon Rondo.

And it was Antoine Walker who was traded for, amongst others, Jiri Welsch who was then traded to Cleveland for the 2007 pick that we traded to Phoenix in order to get Rajon Rondo.

HOWEVER, the only reason Phoenix HAD that pick was because we traded them Joe Johnson, who they later traded to Atlanta for, amongst others, the pick that we got for Jiri Welsch who we had once acquired in a trade for Antoine Walker.

THAT BEING SAID, the only reason Atlanta had the pick that we got for Jiri Welsch, who we had once acquired for Antoine Walker was because we traded it, along with Gary Payton, for Antoine Walker who Atlanta had gotten from Dallas who acquired Antoine Walker from us in a deal that included, amongst others, Jiri Welsch who we then dealt to Cleveland to get the pick that we later dealt to get Rajon Rondo.

AND IN THE END, we had the pick because when Gary Payton was traded to us and didn't report, the deal was changed and the Lakers gave us the first round pick which we then traded along with Gary Payton for Antoine Walker who Atlanta had gotten from Dallas who got Antoine Walker from us in a deal that included, amongst others, Jiri Welsch who we then dealt to Cleveland to get the pick that we later dealt to get Rajon Rondo.

All of this being said, if Cleveland was to ever somehow reacquire that pick , I think the universe could collapse.

July 19, 2006

The Soul Plan: July '06 Edition

smith-ap.jpg - We swing a three team deal with Atlanta and the Lakers
The Hawks get: Andrew Bynum, Kwame Brown, Gerald Green, Delonte West and a draft pick
The Lakers gets: Al Harrington, Wally Szczerbiak, Kendrick Perkins
The Celtics gets: Lamar Odom, Josh Smith, Tyronn Lue.
So essentially we move Wally, Green, West, Perkins, and a draft pick for Odom, Josh Smith, Tyronn Lue.
I'd love to hold onto Gerald but I think Josh Smith is a better prospect and ready to win this season. I'd first offer Tony Allen instead of Gerald but I can't see that happening. We'd probably have to haggle over the first round pick. I don't really want to give up the 2007 pick and I'm guessing Atlanta would want nothing to do with the Minnesota pick. In the end, I'd be willing to give up the 2007 pick but there'd have to be some protections on it. The only way I'd remove protections is if we could replace Gerald with Tony.

- Trade Al Jefferson for Robert Swift.

- We then use the MLE on defensive players Aaron Williams and Bernard Robinson.

Our rotation is:
  • C: Ratliff, Swift, Jones
  • PF: Odom, Williams, Powe
  • SF: Smith, Gomes, Robinson
  • SG: Pierce, Allen, Ray
  • PG: Telfair, Lue, Rondo
Italicized players are inactive.

We have solid defensive players on the bench and a nice offensive trio of Odom, Pierce, and Telfair. Josh Smith is a do-everything guy who can score but who won't be forced to add a ton of offense. If we could move Ratliff and Jefferson for a better big man I'd be for it but I'm wary of adding long term contracts with Smith and Telfair needing to be resigned in the near future.

June 30, 2006

NBA Draft '06: The 2001 Comparison

I've often said that this draft resembled the 2001 draft so I thought I should put my money where my blog is and make the comparison, pick-for-pick. A lot of players could fit a couple of guys but here's my predicted comparisons. Maybe in 2011, we can look back and see how these panned out.

The Kwame Brown: Hilton Armstrong.
Hilton, like Kwame, lacks the drive and attitude to truly make a difference. He has the skills, size, and athleticism to stick around the league for a couple of contracts but in the end, he'll be seen more as a waste than a talent.
The Tyson Chandler: Ronnie Brewer.
Super athlete who does well but isn't enough. Chandler is more useful because of his size but I think he, like Brewer, will always tease with his athleticism and leave you wanting more actual results.
The Pau Gasol: Rudy Gay.
Most people probably have Gay pegged as the Rodney White, but I'm going with Rudy as the superstar who doesn't have enough to truly carry a team. He's got go-to guy ability but second fiddle cajones.
The Eddy Curry: LaMarcus Aldridge.
A lot of people could have gone in the soft big man role but LaMarcus seems to be the best pick. Ideally, he'll be a mix of the two big baby Bulls but more likely he'll just be a big baby like Curry.
The Jason Richardson: Tyrus Thomas.
Ty will be the star who doesn't ever really help his team win. While Richardson is a bit stuck between the two swing spots, Ty will forever be leaning towards the small forward while his team hopes he can play more at the four. Unlike Richardson, Thomas will actually see the playoffs but he won't last in them very long. (Then again, Thomas could easily be the Pau Gasol of the group)
The Shane Battier: Brandon Roy.
People who "know" basketball love Battier and Roy but people who "just watch" basketball don't get the fascination. Roy can do it all and will likely have to be the glue that keeps the Blazers together. His team focus will possibly hurt his stats but he'll be a solid role player whom certain people will overrate and others will underappreciate.
The Eddie Griffin: Andrea Bargnani.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm not damning Big Italy to a sub-par career but he needs an attitude check and some muscle to really make it. While Eddie had a bad attitude, Andrea simply doesn't seem to have any. He needs to get the fire that separates Dirk from most other Euro-ballers. If he doesn't, he could end up battling Griffin as the most naturally gifted 10th man in the league.
The Desagana Diop: Saer Sene.
This one is obvious.
The Rodney White: Thabo Sefolosha.
While his name is harder to spell than White's, his game sounds just as soft. The one thing that could help him is that the expectations will be low in Chicago where all he has to do in his first season is be a complement off the pine.
The Joe Johnson: Shawne Williams.
Had Shawne spent another year at Memphis, I think he would have developed into a JJ level super sophomore. He has a good understanding of the game and ability to play many positions. He might be a little more outspoken that Joe but he is an underrated young player who shouldn't have slipped in the draft.
Kedrick Brown: Patrick O'Bryant.
Both of these guys look the part, might play the part in a couple of games in their career but in the end will fail to make much of a dent in the league. O'Bryant will likely hang around longer than Kedrick because of his size but I don't see him helping the Warriors win anything. Like Kedrick, O'Bryant's name will be said with more regret than respect.
The Vlad Rad: JJ Redick.
A one dimensional gunner who could disappoint on the wrong team but suddenly seem like a useful player when put on a squad that can overcome his deficiencies and allow him to do what he is good at.
The Richard Jefferson: Rodney Carney.
Rudy Gay might be a better fit here since, like Jefferson, he's a great supporting player who was drafted and then traded by Houston, but I'm going to go with Rodney Carney. I think he could step in and help A.I. and Webber much like Jefferson helped Kidd and K-Mart. Unfortunately, it seems like A.I. could be traded. If Carney is the focus of offense, he could be in trouble but as a third or fourth option in his rookie year, he should grow into a solid career.
The Troy Murphy: Adam Morrison.
A talented player who puts up solid numbers but is more of a liability than he is worth. While both Murphy and Morrison do the best with their physical abilities, their physical abilities make them better role players in the NBA.
The Steven Hunter: Josh Boone.
Boone will never be anything much but he'll always be good enough to find a roster spot and maybe get traded a couple of times. Josh and Hilton could easily be switched with Hilton equaling Hunter and Boone being Brown.
The Kirk Haston: Steve Novak.
Novak is the highest pick who'll be out of the league before you even get time to forget that he was ever drafted.
The Michael Bradley: Paul Davis.
Talented big men whose talents aren't much use outside of the NCAA.
The Jason Collins: PJ Tucker.
Collins isn't spectacular but he does enough to help his team. Tucker is similar. If the Raptors lose Mo Peterson, Tucker's situation could be like Collins'; not the best option in the world at his position, but the best option on the team and good enough for them to focus on other needs.
The Zach Randolph: Marcus Williams.
He'll shine as a backup. When he gets the chance to start, he'll impress everyone. And then he'll keep being good but never maturing into greatness. A lot of people will regret not taking Marcus a year or two after the draft but as the years pass, people won't mind not having him around. Marcus could be The Jamal Tinsley but I think he'll have a few great years before leveling off.
The Brendan Haywood: James White.
Both guys had moments in college and always will hear that they "should be better" in the pros. Both will stick around the league for some time but never make a name for themselves.
The Joe Forte: Quincy Douby.
He can shoot and score but he has no real position and is very flawed. Much like C's fans with Forte, Kings fans will wonder, "Wait, if we wanted a PG, why didn't we take one of the actual PG's?" The one difference with Douby is that his attitude is better than Joe's. He might be able to stick around the league as a shooting specialist while Forte was too bust smoking doobies and pissing people off to ever build a career.
The Jeryl Sasser: Mardy Collins.
Both are big guards who are defensive minded but are too slow to really make it in the league. Sasser never got minutes in his career and Collins will be hard pressed to break the Knicks rotation.
The Brandon Armstrong: Joel Freeland.
Both guys kind of came out of nowhere to shoot up into the first round. As it turned out, neither of them really belonged in the first round. Then again, Freeland could be The Zach Randolph. I really have no handle on him but I don't trust those damn Brits so he can labeled Brandon.
The Raul Lopez: Sergio Rodriguez.
The once and future Spanish Chocolate, Raul and Rodriguez are both better suited for Europe than the NBA. After a few years, Raul realized this and packed his bags. Sergio might figure this out sooner if he's stuck in Portland for too long.
The Gerald Wallace: Rajon Rondo.
The obvious comparison is Shawne Williams but Shawne's defense isn't as good as Wallace's. For that reason, I'm going with Rajon Rondo. Rondo, like Wallace, left college because he wasn't being used correctly. Wallace was stuck at PF while Rondo was playing off-guard. Both guys came in with low expectations and, if the C's don't deal Delonte or Telfair, were buried on the bench for the beginning of their careers. It will take Rajon a while to grow into an offensive threat but if he does, he could be a very impressive player.
The Samuel Dalembert: Cedric Simmons.
Simmons like Dalembert will start slow, show potential, and then frustrate. All the while, his team and fans will wait for him to work on his offensive game and wish he could be tougher.
The Jamaal Tinsley: Maurice Ager.
Mel Mel the Abuser made himself a lot of fans with his play as a rookie but he never really improved from there. If he gets time, I think Maurice could turn some heads in Dallas but I can't see him ever improving all that much.
The Tony Parker: Kyle Lowry.
Kyle needs to work on his shot but he has the ability to be as good as Mr. Eva Longoria. Like Parker, people will be surprised with how good he turns out.
The Trenton Hassell: Renaldo Balkman.
Small school bred defensive specialists.
The Gilbert Arenas: Randy Foye.
Part of me wanted to make the bold prediction of Shannon Brown but I'll stick with the more obvious Randy Foye. Foye and Arenas are off guards in lead guard bodies who, while not pure at the point, still find a way to make it work. I can't shake the feeling that Foye could be the surprise bust of the draft but for now I'll go with what seems obvious.
The Omar Cook: Darius Washington.
Rondo could EASILY be Cook instead of Wallace. Daniel Gibson is another candidate but he fell into the perfect situation. So I'm going to go with the undrafted Washington.

The Willie Solomon: OK, you know what, I'm going to skip ahead and pass over the guys who basically never made it. Lord knows who Willie Solomon was let alone who the next Willie Solomon will be.

The Terrence Morris: Kosta Perovic.
Morris and Perovic were both rumored to be lotto picks, didn't enter the draft and ended up being second round picks and waiver wire fodder.
The Brian Scalabrine: Hassan Adams.
Like Veal, Adams will be made to look better that he is by playing with Jason Kidd and the rest of the Nets. Someone will be wowed by his stats, sign him, and realize that he's nothing more than a role player.
Mehmet Okur : Shelden Williams & Oleksiy Pecherov.
A solid big man who can put up numbers and be a force at times but isn't going to be more than a third or fourth option on a winning team. I don't know much about Pecherov so I'll stick him with Okur.
The Earl Watson : Daniel Gibson.
A player that will work himself into a solid pro point guard but will never be a starting point guard. (Note: Gibson could easily be the next Jamison Brewer but I have faith in him.)
The Bobby Simmons: Leon Powe.
Powe, like Simmons, should learn on the bench for a couple of years and then rise to the occassion and be a surprise success when given some time. He then will get paid handsomely and, by no fault of his own, people will realize that he isn't worth the contract he signed. A good player but not someone you should invest more than the MLE on.
The Loren Woods: Marcus Vinicius.
Vinicius could be a player but supposedly gets lost and isn't always focused. He also has major flaws on defense. Woods' issues were on offense in the pros but his lack of focus was the same as Marquihos'.
The Jarron Collins: Dee Brown.
Like Collins, Brown might not ever be worth starting but he could easily find himself as a starter on a bad team. Also, they aren't perfect but they have the right stuff to keep them in the league and in a team's rotation for years.

June 29, 2006

NBA Draft '06: Apologies to Chad

Chad Ford's last mock draft was pretty good at the top. Shockingly, his second round faltered because he didn't foresee the Euro-picks at the end of the round. He was entirely competent at the end. Still probably not worth reading until the last minute but competent. I apologize for mocking you, Chad and give you a pass good for one year or until you say three idiotic things, which will come... I mean, whichever comes first. (And I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that you got scooped on the Telfair deal by Andy Katz.)

NBA Draft '06: The Early Draft Results

So here it is, my early reaction to the NBA draft.

Washington: They picked up Oleksiy Pecherov who sounds like he could be the future Antawn Jamison, who is the current power forward who isn't good enough to get them to seriously contend. Not a terrible pick at 18 but nothing to write home about.

Utah: Ronnie Brewer, Dee Brown, Paul Milsap was the Utah haul. While I like the irony of a Brewer in Utah, that joke really isn't all that great. Then again, I don't think Ronnie is either. He should be the next in the long line of Utah shooting guards who are good but just not good enough to make a difference. Dee Brown is now backing up his college teammate Deron Williams and was a solid pick, even though I personally would have taken a risk on Darius Washington instead. Milsap went to the Mailman's college but the comparisons end there. He was a good pick for where they got him but he's, at best, a backup big man. Most critics will say the Jazz did well for where they picked but, personally, I'm not sold on anyone they grabbed.

Toronto: It's funny what a difference playing overseas makes. One year ago, Rob Babcock was the laughingstock of the league for taking a soft PF at #7 when the Raptors already had Chris Bosh. Nobody seems to be all that upset this year when Bryan Colangelo took another soft PF. I like Bargnani and Charlie Villenueva as a forward tandem but that leaves Chris Bosh at center. (And I have no idea when recently acquired Kris Humphries is supposed to play) I know Colangelo's Suns team excelled at small ball, I'm not sure Bosh is the man for the middle. PJ Tucker in the second round doesn't make a whole heap of sense because, again, he duplicates the skills of another current player, in this case, Joey Graham. Darius Washington or Daniel Gibson would have been a good pick since the team is in dire need of a point guard. Add into the fact that Colangelo could have given up cash and a future pick to grab a late first and one of the falling point guards (Rondo, Williams, Rodriguez, Farmer) and it leaves you wondering what was going on north of the border. The Raptors should have improved more than they did today.

Seattle: Two years ago it was Robert Swift. Last year it was Johan Petro. This year, again, the Sonics took a project center in the draft. It's not like this team is loaded at the other positions that they can afford this fetish. Sene has the most upside, arguably, of the guys on the board but he seems like a Desagana Diop type. Unless the Sonics plan on runing the picket fence with these three and Ray Allen, I'm not sure what they are thinking.

San Antonio: I was waiting for the JR Smith for Brent Barry deal to go through but maybe they are waiting on that. The Spurs drafted another Euro, which has worked well for them. It was more of the same for the Spurs, which could be trouble if Markota turns out to be another Manu.

Sacramento: Word is they wanted a pass first point guard, they had their pick of the litter, and they drafted Quincy Douby. I'm not sure what he brings that Kevin Martin can't do better. I've compared this draft to the 2001 draft and this pick is the Joe Forte of this year.

Portland: Their interim GM must have REALLY wanted to show what he could do because, good lord, he did a lot. As for the draft, he picks up LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, and Joel Freeland. They then traded for Sergio Rodriguez and three second round picks. Aldridge will likely be compared to Kevin Duckworth by people who don't like him but I think he'll be a Jerome Kersey type. The question is whether he'll be a consistent Kersey, dropping 18/10 for a number of years, or just Jerome, whose prime lasted all of five years. I am not sold on Brandon Roy being the next great shooting guard and I certainly wouldn't have passed on Rudy Gay. Roy will be solid but unspectacular and his knees might limit his effectiveness. I have no idea who Joel Freeland is. Sergio Rodriguez looks fun but I'm not sure how good he is either. The Blazers are definitely improved and should field a fun team which is what the fans have been needing the most but I don't see their future being anything more than a second round squad, and that's if everyone pans out.

Phoenix: The Suns gave away the #27 pick and got Cleveland's #1 pick in next year's draft. I think they could have gotten someone to help out at #27 but it wasn't a terrible day for a team shaking at the thought of paying the luxury tax.

Philadelphia: Another cash move, the Sixers moved down three spots for some dough but ended up getting the talented Rodney Carney anyway. And they didn't trade Allen Iverson. And then they added a tough minded, defensive player in Bobby Jones. The fact that Billy King didn't utterly destroy his team in one fell swoop (and may have added a nice starter and 7th man to complement to AI and Iggy) makes this a joyous day for Sixer fans.

Orlando: They had the 11th pick and drafted a 6th man. I would have preferred Carney but Redick makes sense. This is the best fit for JJ but it remains to be seen if a Jameer/Redick backcourt can survive defensively.

New York: They picked two defensive minded players as if to rub salt in Larry Brown's wound. Balkman is the type of guy they need although he's also the kind of guy that David Lee was supposed to be. Mardy Collins is another combo guard on a team of combo guards. Unless he's the last member of the combo guard Voltron, I don't see where he fits in. I thought Taj Gray would be a good fit, or any big man for that matter, but I thought Isiah had a bad draft last year so who knows...

New Orleans: I'm not a fan of Hilton Armstrong and I'd be willing to bet that he gets into Byron Scott's doghouse next season. His 2001 comparison is Steven Hunter (whom the Hornets did try to trade for this season). I like the Cedric Simmons and Marquinhos picks as they were great quality for where they were. Since they had two first rounders, they should have either taken a gamble with one and taken Shawne Williams or looked for help now (ala Corey Maggette, who was supposedly available for a first rounder) but this wasn't a bad day.

New Jersey: A great day for the Nets. Marcus Williams at the 22 was a steal and having him learning behind Jason Kidd should be amazing. After getting Marcus, they could afford to make the riskiest move in the draft (best big man available) and Josh Boone should be a good backup to Jason Collins. Hassan Adams could be an absolute steal in the second round and should look very good running with kid. The Nets improved their depth threefold and with the right MLE signing (or Richard Jefferson deal) could make a legit push in the East next season.

Minnesota: When they took Roy at the 6, I thought they could trade him for someone who'll help KG. Instead they made the head scratching move of just trading down for the next pick and apparently getting nothing in return. In the NCAA tournament, Randy Foye didn't look like a pro player to me but I still cling to the idea that he is a rookie of the year candidate, especially on the Wolves. Having Marko Jaric should actually help as Marko can run the point a bit and allow Randy to score. I really don't understand the Craig Smith selection and have no idea who the Greecian center they took is. At the end of the day, the Wolves are still a lottery pick and still need to figure out whether to offer Garnett for youth or a package of Foye/Ricky/Blount for help now.

Milwaukee: They had one pick and took an atheletic defender which is what they needed. David Noel should make the roster but still has a ways to go to earn good NBA minutes.

Miami: The Champs sat draft day out.

Memphis: The Logo comes through! I think the Grizzlies had the best draft day in the league. While I'm not sure how Stromile Swift will feel to be back in Memphis, getting him and Rudy Gay for Shane Battier is a terrific move. Then grabbing Kyle Lowry was another great decision. I'm not sold on Alexander Johnson but he is a solid pick in the second round. I think Gasol and Gay will be a tremendous combo. When Lowry is ready to take over for Damon Stoudamire in a year, this team will be looking at the second round for the first time in franchise history.

LA Lakers: They grabbed the local kid to run the point. Jordan Farmar was a solid selection for the Lake Show. It should be interesting to see if this affects Marcus Banks' status on the team. With Parker and Farmar on the team, I'm not sure how much they shold invest in another PG.

LA Clippers: Paul Davis doesn't make sense because he has the same issues as Chris Kaman. He doesn't help out defensively in the middle and really adds nothing to the team. The playoffs showed the team's absolute need for another perimeter defender so PJ Tucker or Bobby Jones would have made more sense. I like the second pick of Guillermo Diaz who should become a fan favorite in Los Angeles.

Indiana: This could be the best draft... potentially. Shawne Williams could be a superstar and James White, who was also supposed to be a superstar, could "get it" in the NBA and be a more useful pro than amateur. The biggest issue is that Rick Carlisle and the Pacers don't seem to be the best place for these guys to grow. With Jermaine O'Neal itching to win, Shannon Brown and Maurice Ager made more sense in the first round and Paul Davis seemed like the ideal fit in the second. The 2001 comparison could be Gerald Wallace and Bobby Simmons or it could be Eddie Griffin and Terrence Morris. While I like the draft, I don't like the team that did it.

Houston: I've never been a huge fan of Shane Battier. I just don't think the Stro/Rudy trade made sense. They are dying for a point guard and weren't able to grab any of the guys who fell. They drafted some Israeli guy when Dee Brown, Darius Washington or Taj Gray was available. Maybe Lior Eliyahu will pan out but can you take that risk when you take Steve Novak with the second pick in the second round? Novak might be a useful pro, especially if he just has to sit around and shoot threes, but the Rockets are not a team that should be looking for role players. Minnesota could be the only team that looks worse on paper. They had three picks and three needs (PG, SF, C) and only filled one, small forward, which was the easiest of the three to fill. The ex-Celtics stat boy's fingerprints were all over this draft and that's not a compliment. After all, he's the guy that wanted us to sign Scalabrine.

Golden St.: If they were going to get a center, they should have gone after Saer Sene. Patrick O'Bryant could become a Chris Kaman type and the reason I say that is because I thought Kaman would be a bust just like I think this guy will be. The Warriors then drafted another center in the second round. Kosta Perovic is one of Chad Ford's guys who kept pulling out of drafts, He's 21 and from all accounts sounds like he should really start learning how to actually play basketball. He makes Shawn Bradley appear to be a prodigy. Marcus Vinicius might have made more sense. In fact, I think pretty much anybody would have. The Warriors left draft day like they always do, headed towards another lottery pick next year.

Detroit: They snagged a backup PG and a poor man's potential Ben Wallace. Will Blalock should see minutes by the end of the season backing up Chauncey Billups but the Pistons might never see Saer Sene's fellow countryman Cheikh Samb.

Denver: They traded their second round pick for a future second round pick. Maybe they could have grabbed a shooting guard with the pick but nobody all that exciting was left and they could easily just invite undrafted Mike Gansey to their training camp.

Dallas: Maurice Ager was a good choice if they are getting rid of Marquis Daniels but I'm not so sure that he's better than Marquis Daniels. They took the best man available but he didn't really help their defensive or backup PF needs. Taj Gray would have been the perfect pick at the end of the draft but they opted of Pinnock, another shooting guard. I mean, even Pittsnoogle would have made sense as a Van Horn replacement. An Ager/Gray draft would have been very good. Ager is solid but I doubt Pinnock makes the 15 man roster.

Cleveland: Right up there with Memphis for best draft, they could easily have found their two complements to Lebron James in this draft. I wouldn't be stunned if a Daniel Gibson, Shannon Brown, Lebron James trio was seen on the court together in a few years. They took some Nigerian guy I've never heard of near the end of the draft. I'm going to sound like a broken record but if they had taken Taj Gray, I might say they had the best draft. Ejike Ugboaja might be a real find but for now I'll have them right behind Memphis at the top of the draft charts.

Chicago: It might be unfair but Chicago didn't make a deal, didn't make a splash, and just added more young talent. I was expecting the move to push them towards contending this season and they didn't pull it off so my view is tainted by disappointment. Ty Thomas could be a nice complement to Andres Nocioni but Thabo Sefalosha is a role player and they would have been better off rolling the dice with Shawne Williams in my opinion. The Bulls are still the Bulls, a superstar away from the next echelon.

Charlotte: I don't get the Adam Morrison pick whatsoever. He plays the same position as Gerald Wallace on offense and simply can't play on the defensive end. I have no faith in a Morrison, Okafor, May frontcourt. While not a huge fan of Brandon Roy, I think he fit the team better. Maybe the 'Stache will prove me wrong but the Bobcats seem to be becoming the Golden State Warriors East.

Atlanta: I hated the Shelden Williams rumor at first but it kind of makes sense. I can see him in Atlanta. He and Zaza with Josh Smith at the 3 could be a nice frontcourt. Again, I thought they could have made a push for one of the PG's that fell or at least taken one in the second round. Solomon Jones was not the best option available to them. Maybe they can grab Darius Washington as a free agent. This draft was fine for Atlanta. They desperately need a point guard and if they could find someone, they could challenge for a playoff spot.

Boston: I'm a huge fan of Rudy Gay but getting Telfair and dumping Raef for Theo Ratliff makes sense. The Rondo deal is hard to figure right now because why trade for a PG and then draft one. Rondo is a definite talent but I'm not sure we had to scratch that itch with Telfair around. The Celtics still probably would be good with a veteran point guard to back up Bassy. Grabbing Leon Powe was another nice move although adding more role players to a team of role players isn't going to get you playoff tickets. While Bassy should definitely help the C's win more games this season, a trip to the second season still relies on the frontcourt which is still young and unproven. (No, Ratliff and Brian Grant are not going to be difference makers on the court.)

Finally,
2006 All-Rookie First Team: Aldridge, S. Williams, Gay, Roy, Foye

NBA Draft '06: The All-Undrafted Team

There were a few names that were never called on Wednesday that could easily make rosters in the NBA this season. Below is the All-Undrafted team 2006.

Darius Washington: Any team looking for a PG should be looking to get this kid into their training camp. Atlanta especially would be out of their minds to not be on the phone with this kid who could turn out to be a very talented lead guard.
Taj Gray: After Washington, Gray is the most likely to become a very good player in the league. The late rush on foreigners sealed his fate. He might have had a chance to go to Minnesota but they grabbed the bulkier Craig Smith. With Drew Gooden likely gone, Cleveland might benefit from taking a look at Taj.
Allan Ray: A very good scorer, Ray is 6'2 which makes him too short for the point. Since he doesn't have the skills to be an NBA lead guard, most teams passed on him. Still, a team looking for a boost of the bench should give him a second look. Ray could be ideal for the Pistons.
Mike Gansey: Gansey is essentially a poor man's JJ Redick. He knows how to play the game but he simply might not be able to keep up with pro athletes. He's probably the most likely (along with Kevin Pittsnoogle) to excel overseas. Denver should take a look at him since they absolutely lack in the 2-guard position.
Kevin Pittsnoogle: If he could play a lick of defense, he would have been drafted. He can't so he wasn't. Pittsnoogle is a guy who could stick around the league for awhile and maybe find a niche but might be better off being a good player overseas. The Pacers might want to look into adding him since they seem to be losing all of their white perimeter big men.

Honorable Mention: Jose Juan Barea, Viktor Keirou, Louis Amundson, Daniel Horton, Rashard Anderson.

June 28, 2006

Final Thoughts Before the Draft

- The Iverson rumor (as little as Wally and #7) is a tough one to believe but it also has to be just one part of a win now plan. Getting AI and relying on Gomes, Big Al, and Perkins in the middle just doesn't make sense. I would have to think that Raef and a young player would be involved in a deal for a big man if we end up getting Iverson.

- People will regret passing on Rudy Gay. He may not be a superstar but I think he'll be a top notch second star ala Marion or, at least, Rashard Lewis.

- I know I'm in the minority but I'm not sold on Brandon Roy. I don't think he'll be a person that you regret having on your team but I also don't envision him being an all-out star.

- The further JJ Redick falls, the better. The lower expectations and the better team that surrounds JJ will help him immeasurably. While I think some players would be better off learning on the job (Gay, Aldridge, Williams) and not being allowed to fall back into a supporting role, Redick will shine if all he has to do is focus on his strength, shooting the long ball. If he fell to the Nets, they could come away with a deadly sixth man, feeding off of Kidd, Carter, and Krstic's presences.

- A name called in the end of the second round will make noise in the playoffs next season. Be it Leon Powe, Taj Gray, Renaldo Balkman, Allan Ray, someone taken at the end of the draft will become a solid role player for a contending team.

- As for Telfair, on talent alone, I'd make the #7 and Dickau for Telfair and #31 (assuming none of the top 6 fall to us). However, his attitude makes me nervous. Even if he fits in, I think he'll likely be looking for more money than he's worth and may me interested in heading off to the Brooklyn Nets.

June 24, 2006

Hanging Chad: Chad admits that he has no clue

ford_chad_m.jpgUnbelievably and undoubtably unwittingly, Chad Ford has admitted that he has no idea what is going on in the new NBA draft. He claims that nobody has a lock on the draft and that there are various scenarios that could play out. He then questions whether the reader would question his assertion that he is completely ignorant and states, "Don't believe me? Here are some scenarios that could play out on draft night." He then lists seven different scenarios. It should be noted, only two of those scenarios don't incluide the promise to which he's pinning his waning credibility, the Atlanta Hawks taking Shelden Williams.

For the record (or records as it is), Chad Ford says the Celtics could be drafting Rudy Gay or Marcus Williams or Rajon Rondo or Patrick O'Bryant or LaMarcus Aldridge or Randy Foye. While Rudy Gay is who he has us getting in his "official mock draft", Marcus Williams appears at #7 in two of Ford's scenarios. Oh, and if you go over to Celticsblog.com you'll see that Chad Ford dropped the names Cedric Simmons and Ronnie Brewer to the moderator Jeff. So basically, the Celtics might take one of about ten guys in the draft.

This, my friends, is the type of Insider information that only the world's leading sports network can deliver.

June 21, 2006

Hanging Chad: Chad's 2006 So-Far

Now that the Finals are over, it's Chad Ford time! But before the final week of fun begins, let's see the gems that Chad has dropped so far in this draft season.

ford_chad_m.jpg - One of his reasons for doubting that Ty Thomas had a top three promise:
For one thing, Michael Siegal, one of Thomas' agents, told Insider earlier on Monday that Thomas did not have a promise. On the other hand, Siegal told me that before the Oregonian story about Thomas' workout appeared.
That's like saying, "There are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq because George W. said so. On the other hand, he said that before reports came that there actually weren't WMD's in Iraq." I would expect an "Insider" to go back to the source rather than rehash old information. Ford made a similar gaffe in his report on how Michael Jordan is shaking up the Bobcats' draft plans. After spending an entire blog entry stating how Jordan is in charge, trying to figure out who to draft, and not hot on Rudy Gay of whom Bernie Bickerstaff is a huge supporter, Ford dismisses a potential deal with the Hornets (the Hornets' picks and JR Smith for #3) by writing: "an NBA team source laughed off the rumor, saying that Smith is not a Bickerstaff-type of player." So a source from another team said JR Smith isn't the type of player the guy who isn't making decisions for the 'Cats anymore likes? This is your denial? I'm not saying the trade is going to happen but to rule out JR Smith (who wears #23) because of Bickerstaff doesn't make much sense with Jordan in town.

ford_chad_m.jpg - He swears by his report that Shelden Williams has a promise from the Hawks even though Shelden never worked out for the Hawks and there is little-to-no chance that he would go before the Hawks pick at #5. This is really a key moment for Chad. His history with reporting promises is spotty at best. Socks Bynum's promise from the Lakers snuck past ESPN's draft guru as he was too busy reporting promises for guys like Roko Leni-Ukic to Boston (Ukic didn't go until the second round).

ford_chad_m.jpg - Chad also goes with agent-speak way too often. For instance, he reported that five or six teams are trying to trade up to get Morrison. His source? Morrison's agent.
"I've had five or six teams call me trying to find a way to move up in the draft to get him," Bartelstein said. "I still believe that at the end of the day, Adam will be the No. 1 pick in the draft. Gauging from the interest I'm getting, a lot of teams think he's the best player in the draft."
Why in the world are GM's calling Adam Morrison's agent trying to make deals to move up? Wouldn't it be a wee bit more helpful to call the other GM's who actually have the higher draft picks? It was a rare sign of restraint that Ford didn't start a rumor that Morrison would be #1 because the agent said so. I'm still waiting for the Insider report in which Chad Ford reports that gullible is written on the ceiling.

ford_chad_m.jpg- I can't imagine he wrote this blurb with a straight face:
Pittsburgh center Aaron Gray worked out against former Oklahoma State center Frans Steyn on Thursday afternoon. It's not the best environment for Gray, and the workout didn't go well for him.
While I can understand how Aaron Gray might not be a workout wonder, if battling some shmoe named Frans Steyn isn't the best environment then I'm really not sure how the NBA is an environment he will ever be able to survive.

ford_chad_m.jpg - Chad stated that Patrick O'Bryant might be worth the #1 pick because of his athleticism. A little more than a week later, Patrick O'Bryant took part in the NBA combine and ranked a startling 79th in athleticism. His vertical was worse than JJ Redick's. Chad was left scratching his head, labeling this "a major surprise."

ford_chad_m.jpg - Chad makes a lot of comments that make sense for team officials and agents but that reporters should probably stay away from. For instance:
There's no question the Rockets want to be back in the playoff hunt next season. Besides Redick, Brandon Roy, who's unlikely to slip to No. 8, is probably the only guy in the draft who could play for the Rockets right now.
Did Chad Ford watch any Rockets games last season? Did he notice that the guy the Rockets got at #24 in last year's draft started a quarter of their games? This draft would have to be one of the worst ever if the 8th pick couldn't step in and get minutes for the Rockets who essentially have two good players and a bunch of scraps. To say that only two guys in the draft could play for the Rockets is beyond laughable. The Rockets have the 32nd pick in the draft this year and I would be stunned if THAT guy doesn't get decent minutes this season, let alone the guy who they grab at #8. This has to be one of the dumbest comments Ford has made in quite some time. Luckily for us, the final push to the NBA Draft is upon us so we can expect more of the same from the worst Insider ever, Chad Ford.

Hanging Chad: John Hollinger is an idiot

I'm going to expand the Chad Ford hate section to include his ESPN cohorts.
Hollinger: People will talk about Wade, but Dallas didn't break 100 points in regulation once all series. For a team built on offense, that was a huge disappointment. Based on the 3-point woes, it seems they need one more shooter.
Only John Hollinger would look at the Mavs and think they need another shooter. Maybe they need someone who can hit high percentage shots once-in-a-while? Maybe they need a post presence and a seven footer who doesn't play on the perimeter. Hollinger probably thought Keith Van Horn should have played more because of his ability to hit the three. Hollinger and his stats are everything! gimmick is almost as frustrating as Chad Ford's Insider reports which are almost always wrong.

I don't know why I'm surprised. The guy subscribes to a stat that states that Yao Ming is the 8th best player in the game while Tim Duncan is the 16th (and Ron Artest is 83rd, worse than Eddie House).
It's times like these that I need a picture of Veronika Zemanova to cheer me up.
Veronika_Zemanova_12.JPG
I feel better already.

June 20, 2006

Draft 2006: SoulMock #3

Third times a charm. Here's the final SoulMock draft.

#1: Toronto: Andrea Bargnani - Small ball comes to Canada! Bargnani is actually a great complement to Charlie Villenueva and the Rapz move Bosh to the middle at times to run a fast paced lineup. While Bosh isn't the ideal size for a center, let's be honest, how many people are nowdays? Aldridge could go here but I'm not sure how well he and Bosh really complement one another.

#2: Chicago: Tyrus Thomas - The Bulls might deal this pick but regardless, Thomas is the guy who's going here. I like the Odom deal that's been rumored but I think Chicago might be better just sticking with Tyrus and seeing what they can get for a trade package of Gordon and Deng.

#3: Charlotte: Brandon Roy - Michael Jordan is back in business! Hopefully he has the good sense not to draft another possibly lazy/soft player. Roy can help now and his point skills will be a nice complement to Ray Felton. A Felton/Roy/Wallace/Okafor/May lineup isn't too shabby.

#4: Portland: LaMarcus Aldridge - Aldridge is a nice complement to Zach Randolph in the paint and he makes more sense than the defense deficient Adam Morrison. While LaMarcus might be the new Sam Bowie, the Blazers would be better off gambling on size than 'stache.

#5: Atlanta: Randy Foye - Maybe they deal it to Philly for Iverson. Maybe they send it somewhere else. Maybe they really did promise to take Shelden Williams. Maybe, maybe not, the fact remains that you don't get a much better fit to the Hawks than Randy Foye, a scoring PG who will complement Joe Johnson perfectly.

#6: New Orleans: Adam Morrison - Ok, I'll be honest. I want Rudy Gay to fall to the C's so Adam Morrison is going at this pick. I don't think Minny passes up the chance to fill some holes so they turn a deal with the Hornets, shipping the #6 and defensive-minded Trenton Hassell to New Orleans for JR Smith, Arvydas Macijauskas, and the #12. The Hornets get some help off the bench and a higher pick (and a dead-eye shooter) while unloading two guys that Byron Scott can't stand. The Wolves get two young talents and move down a bit where they can grab the best available PG.

#7: Boston: Rudy Gay - Take the best talent on the board and that's Rudy Gay. People question his work ethic but I'll atrribute his down season to a sophomore slump instead of a sign of problems. A Green/Gay combo will be deadly for years to come.

#8: Houston: Marcus Williams - They need a lot but Marcus is the best option. He's a pure point who'll be able to find both T-Mac and Yao and he's a capable scorer so he can step up when either or both of those guys are injured.

#9: Golden St: Rodney Carney - Patrick O'Bryant is a possibility but I think they would be better off grabbing Carney who'd be a nice complement to Richardson and Baron. Diogu and Troy Murphy can hold down the four while Andris Biedrins and Adonal Foyle just need to play defense and rebound, which is what they do best.

#10: New Jersey: Shelden Williams - Richard Jefferson is reportedly unhappy in the swamp while Rashard Lewis is likely opting out and leaving Seattle. The two teams swap problems dealing #10 and Lewis for #22, #23 and Jefferson. Richard's defense and intangibles will help the Sonics who weren't particularly interested in anyone at this spot. Shelden complements Nenad Krstic in the paint and is the workmanlike player who can help now that the Nets need.

#11: Orlando: JJ Redick - JJ had a bad week with the DUI and back issues but he's still the best shooter in the draft and is a nice fit to feed off of Jameer, Dwight, and Darko.

#12: Minnesota: Patrick O'Bryant - Did I say the Wolves would take the best possible PG with this pick? Oh well. When the big man O'Bryant falls to twelve, the Wolves take a chance on the project big man.

#13: Philly: Ronnie Brewer - The intial pick was Mardy Collins but after his horrific workouts, Ronnie Brewer makes the most sense. Ronnie's skills complement A.I. and he and Iggy become the younger, more athletic replacements of Eric Snow and Aaron McKie. The fate of the Sixers still rests on the overpaid Webber, Korver, and Dalembert but at least they should be fun to watch running the break this season.

#14: Utah: Thabo Seflosha - He sounds like the Swedish Matt Harpring: a do-everything guard who doesn't excel at one thing. He seems like a nice fit in Utah and should settle in between Deron Williams and AK47.

#15: New Orleans: Cedric Simmons - The Hornets add a big man to the mix with their second pick. Simmons will likely backup David West this season but he and Hassell will be just the defensive presence that Byron Scott is looking for off the bench.

#16: Chicago: Saer Sene - This pick makes sense because it is the Bulls second pick and they can afford to take a gamble on the raw but upsidearific Sene. I'm not sure if Sene will ever be anything more than a defensive dynamo, which doesn't help the Bulls since they already have Tyson Chandler, but the Bulls are in a position to take a flyer on the big man.

#17: Indiana: Rajon Rondo - He has the most upside and the Pacers PG's all seem to be on the downside of their careers. Needs would have the Pacers grabbing a big man like Hilton Armstrong but I think they can find a servicable big man in a deal for Stephen Jackson. If they can swing a deal like that, along with the rumored Tinsley for Ricky Davis swap, then Rondo fits in perfectly behind AJ and Sarunas.

#18: Washington: Hilton Armstrong - I really don't think Antawn Jamison is long for the Capitol so a PF could go here but for now, the Wiz could use a big man like Hilton. I'm not a huge fan of this pick but it makes the most sense for the Wiz. They could always use a shooting guard (maybe they look into adding Stephen Jackson in a deal with Indy?) but right now, Armstrong seems like the most likely pick.

#19: Sacramento: Oleksiy Pecherov - I have no idea where this team stands right now. Do they have faith in Kevin Martin? Are they resigning Bonzi Wells? Are they going to blow it up or go for another playoff push? They might draft for need but I think going for the foreign prospect Pecherov could be their best option.

#20: New York: Shawne Williams - Taking a project with a ton of upside like Williams makes the most sense. If things go well in NY, their current players will come together and the rookie will likely never play. If things don't go well then it will be a while until the Knicks win again and the rookie has time to grow.

#21: Phoenix: Sergio Rodriguez - Barbosa is fun and all but his point guard skills leave a lot to be desired. The Spanish Magician becomes Nash's heir apparent.

#22: Seattle: Maurice Ager - Ray Allen isn't getting any younger so a backup, whether Ager or Ager's teammate Shannon Brown, would be solid picks here.

#23: Seattle: Joel Freeland - The Englishman is supposedly a talented 3/4 player which would fit nicely in Seattle.

#24: Memphis: Jordan Farmer - They need a PG so it's either Farmar or Lowry. While I like Lowry better, I think Farmar is a better fit in Memphis.

#25: Cleveland: Mardy Collins - Before the pick, Cleveland surprises some people by dealing oft-injured Larry Hughes for oft-injured Kenyon Martin. Hughes wasn't a good fit in Cleveland and Martin adds some defense and a running mate for Lebron. A Flip Murray/Collins backcourt could work as Collins has the point skills to run the show and has the size to help Flip on defense. Shannon Brown is a possibility but Collins' size and defense make him a solid selection.

#26: LAL: Leon Powe -Shannon Brown would make sense as a shooter off the bench who can run the point. Renaldo Balkman would be a good fit but this is too early to take him. Powe might be the best complement to Lamar Odom. I'm not sold on this pick at all but right now I'll go with Powe.

#27: Phoenix: Josh Boone: At the very least, he's six fouls to use against Duncan. Alexander Johnson is another option but I think Boone being a center would be the pick.

#28: Dallas: Alexander Johnson - College career didn't show much but he's the kind of guy that could really come on in the Dallas system. He's got a solid enough offensive game and would give the Mavericks a low post option that can take advantage of the double teams on Dirk.

#29: New York: Kyle Lowry - Yeah, the team has a handful of guys who call themselves point guards but Lowry actually IS a point guard so that could help them out.

#30: Portland: Marcus Vinicius - Marcus' issues are similar to Morrison's (talented on offense, absent on defense) but you can take the risk at thirty.

June 02, 2006

Draft 2006: The Point of Progress (or lack thereof)

Ever since Hall of Famer Dennis Johnson left (and yes, I know he hasn't been voted in but I don't care, the man is clearly worthy of the Hall), the Boston Celtics' point guard situation has been too little (JR Bremer, Randy Brown, Dana Barros), too late (Kenny Anderson, Gary Payton) or guys whom we gave up too soon (Billups, Wesley, James). While we can all look to the past and wonder what would have happened had we held on to David Wesley (which would have allowed Billups to develop without the pressure of starting) or selected Tony Parker or Gilbert Arenas instead of Tony Parker, the more useful endeavor would be to check out this draft to see who we can find to end the 10+ years of point guard mediocrity.

Something funny happened along the way to this being the worst PG draft in recent memory: every borderline prospect at the point decided to declare for the draft. While the draft still lacks top notch players, the depth has increased significantly (yet could diminish just as fast if these guys all realize they're draft stock might be better in a year or so). The one problem, of course, is that most of these guys are gigantic question marks. In terms of the one spot, this draft is somewhat similar to 2001, a number of players who could be stars and go mid-lotto but have enough deficiencies to could have them fall to the late first/early second. At 7, the Celtics have a great chance to have their choice of the best of the lot but that brings up the unanswerable question of Who's the best in the draft?

Foye.jpg Randy Foye? The critics immediate cry would be that he isn't a true PG. In fact, his teammate Kyle Lowry is more of a pure PG. Those who like Foye (Foye Toys?) will immediately point out that, sticking to the 2001 comparison, the issues people levy against Foye were the same that they levied against Arenas. While Foye might not be an ideal PG, he fits two of the most important factors which allow players to overcome this: he's got a great attitude and is a strong leader. If you don't mind not having a true PG, then Randy is likely your first choice and a reasonable selection at #7.

marcus.jpg Marcus Williams? The best pure point guard right now. "Right now" being the operative term because he the Jamaal Tinsley of the draft; what you see is what you get. He has a lower ceiling than many of the other prospects but the fact remains that his current ceiling is something many of these other guys may never reach. He would be the sure thing point guard of the draft (even moreso than Foye) if it weren't for questions about his attitude. He had a spotty record when it came to off-the-court decision making (the laptop fencing, the inability to stay academically eligible) and his workouts so far have been underwhelming. While the current workouts don't highlight his strengths, he hasn't helped himself by showing up out of shape. If the character issues don't bother you, Marcus is the most likely to help from day one, which is something Danny, and many Celtics fans, would love to see out of their draft pick.

MardyBrewer.jpg Ronnie Brewer? Ronnie's not a point guard. He can handle the position but he's a Dee Brown type point man; someone you can be handle the position but isn't going to stop anyone in the front office from looking for a real PG.
Mardy Collins? If we trade down with New Orleans, Mardy has to be an option. He can run the point and would be a very interesting complement to Delonte West in the backcourt. His workouts have been unimpressive as it's highlighted his weakness, shooting. Some might say that Mardy is the Jeryl Sasser of this draft but I think that comparison is unfair to Collins. Unlike Sasser, Mardy's defense and knowledge of the game should help him hang around the league for years. 7 is way to high to take Mardy who'll likely be good, not great. In my opinion, the Celtics can't really afford that luxury and need to find a difference maker at the point.

bkc_uky_rajon_rondo_164_101604.jpg Rajon Rondo? With his elite athleticism and pure point guard skills, Rondo has the highest ceiling of any PG in the draft. He could easily become a Tony Parker type PG. The problem, unfortunately, is that he also could be Omar Cook. Rondo is a roll of the dice. His playmaking skills are undervalued but that's because they are underdevloped. Kentucky used his more as a slasher, almost a two guard, rather than letting him run the show. He is a true pass-first point guard which is good but he's also a pass-second point guard too because his jumper is beyond lacking. Some people have said he struggles with his shot because of his large hands but that is more of a problem than an excuse because it means that his shot is a physical issue and not something that he can easily fix. Rondo is a reach at seven but would make a decent investment if we trade down. He is a couple years away from consistent minutes but when he finally gets those minutes, it could be special.

med_1787_4.jpg Sergio Rodriguez? The Spanish Magician isn't the athlete that Rondo is but is a more complete offensive players. The other end of the floor isn't so kind to him though. Sergio makes Steve Nash look competent on the defensive end and would likely need a year to work on his defense before he could really get minutes. While some people compare his game to Nash or Jason Williams, he could also be Sasha Vujacic or better shooting Doug Gottlieb. Sergio would be another candidate at around #15 but he also isn't someone who is going to help out any time soon.
Quincy Douby? He's the ideal PG for the triangle. He can handle the ball and can knock down the trey. Unfortunately, we don't run the triangle so he seems like a poor man's Delonte and someone we don't really need.

Jordan Farmar? Basically, he's a college-level PG. He is all potential and that potential isn't all that awe-inspiring. He's not athletic, isn't great at shooting and needs to work on his defense. The only two reasons coming out now could help him is that he A) could get selected by a team who already has a PG which will allow him to learn on the job or B) he might be the new Chris Thomas or Daniel Gibson, a point guard who's value plummetted the longer they stayed in college. If that's the case, he should stay in the draft and we should avoid drafting him.

Kyle Lowry? Here's another guy who might not be as highly touted in a year or so. His situation is worse than Farmar's however because he would be returning to a team that isn't nearly as good as the one he had this year. While he could rise to the occasion, the odds are more likely that teams will be able to key on his weakness and expose them more. Compared to the rest of the PG class, he has one of the lower ceilings. If we acquired a late first, he'd be a very solid choice but like most late first round PG's, he probably wouldn't be ready to contribute for a year or two.

Guillermo Diaz? An athletic freak. He doesn't know how to run the point and is more of a two guard than a point. He hasn't been playing basketball for very long and while projects like this are usually OK for centers, point guard is a tough position to pick up late in one's career. He might make a nice pick for an established team but right now he seems to be a high risk, medium reward prospect. 33295829_6b0bbb54b1_m.jpg Sleepers? Are there any second round picks who could surprise and become stars in this draft? Daniel Gibson was a supposed top 3 choice heading into the college season but his selfish and uninspiring play now has him as a second rounder. His decision making was horrific at times. The kid definitely can play the game but he needs a complete on-court attitude adjustment if he wants to make the NBA. Darius Washington is another super-athlete with point guard skills who seems a little too in love with either his own game or the sound of the ball hitting the floor. Like Gibson, Washington dribbles entirely too much and needs to realize his role in the offense. A lot of his weakness are things he just needs to work on but that always prompts the question, why the heck isn't he working on them? Coming into workouts too heavy hasn't exactly helped ease people's anxieties that he might be a player that never truly gets it. Will Blalock and Dee Brown are two seniors who could step in off the bench this season for someone. I'm not sure either will ever become a starter in the league but they both have the ability to stick in the league and be great contributors.

With the #7 we most certainly can take someone who could help us at the point. Rondo and Rodriguez are two gambles that we may want to look at if we trade down while Williams and Foye are the two "safest" picks. That being said, the biggest assist Foye and Williams could give the Celtics is if they go in the top six as that would allow one of the top prospects in the draft to fall to us.

June 01, 2006

7up... or down... or out for a veteran.

Lucky 7. It seems like a perfect fit for the Celtics but many people seem interested in trading the pick. The reasons vary from the echoes of Pitino (We have enough youth) to the hoping for a franchise player (We need a top talent on this team). But what can we get, what are the odds that something could transpire?

Toronto - Pick 1: Tongues are wagging ever since the buzz came out that Colangelo might be looking to trade down. The problem with us moving up to get the #1, however, is that in order to offer enough to get Toronto interested, we'd likely have to give up too much. The best offer we could really give would be Gerald Green and the #7 for first pick but is anyone in this draft enough of a sure thing to give up a supposed top 5 prospect in Green and the seventh pick which, if just one person leaps into the top six, could yield a very talented prospect? In my opinion, the answer is no. If there is a deal, I think the most likely candidates are: Portland, Golden St. , or Seattle.

Chicago - Picks 2, 16: Moving up to the two would likely cost us Paul Pierce. This deal has been discussed over and over again so I'm not sure there's a need to address it again. While I would like to dream of a Deng and 16 for 7 and something (I'd say Allen but his last visit to Chicago didn't work out so well) type deal, I'm not sure it makes sense for the Bulls. In this draft, the person at 7 could easily be worse than the person as 16, and to give up a known commodity like Deng doesn't add up. Again, I think Seattle has the good to go after the 2 and there's always the oft-rumored Garnett trade. I think Chicago's focus will be on acquiring a star so if Pierce isn't on the block, we're not in the talks.

Charlotte - Pick 3: Trading down to seven would likely move them out of the range of Morrison or Roy so I doubt they'd make a deal unless, again, we offered too much.

Portland - Pick 4, 30: And now the fun begins. Telfair and Ratliff for Raef and the 7. Raef, Al, and the 7 for Zach and Outlaw. Miles, Skinner, #4 for Wally and #7. There are definitely possibilities. Word out of Portland is that they are looking to acquire another high pick so I'm not sure if we have a legit shot to move up with them, however a swap of pick for player is possible. The recent firing of John Nash could throw a monkey wrench into the plans though. Interim GM's rarely have the power to make major shakeups. On the other hand, if Nash was the only Telfair fan in the front office, then Bassy could become all the more available in a deal. While I think Ratliff and Miles are likely headed to NY this offseason, there is a definite possibility that a deal between the C's and the Blazers could transpire (even if it is just a future pick for their #30 selection).

Atlanta - Pick 5: I'm not even going to begin to say that I know what is in Billy Knight's head so this one is wide open. My guess is that he wouldn't be interested but this man also lost high lotto picks in deals for Lorenzen Wright, Big Dog Robinson, and Shareef Abdur-Rahim.

Minnesota - Pick 6: I can't really see anything transpiring.

Houston - Pick 8: If we really want two picks back to back, we could probably make an offer for this but I don't think it is likely.

Golden St. - Pick 9: The lottery veterans are entering their second decade of lottery picks. Clearly '95 to '05 wasn't very successful. This team is absolutely loaded with talented players so a deal could definitely be made. Baron is the most obvious target, however if the team wants to unload a contract, they might consider moving Troy Murphy. I'm not so sure how interested I am in their veterans (most of whom are overpaid) but I wouldn't put it past Ainge to see something that tickles his fancy.

Seattle - Pick 10: I think Seattle has bigger fish to fry than moving up a bit to get the 7. Rashard Lewis is likely on the block but as he could opt out in one year, it isn't worth giving up too much for him. Better offers lay elsewhere for Seattle.

Orlando - Pick 11: I don't see anything available on their roster that interests me all that much. Anything worth having isn't on the trading block.

New Orleans - Pick 12, 15: An odds on favorite for most likely trade, the Hornets could easily move down and allow the C's to pick up a couple of good young prospects. The question is: do we really have the roster space for two more young bodies? We have ten bodies that aren't going anywhere. If we do make this deal, it's probably sayanora to Orien Greene and Dwayne Jones. Also, this move would allow Danny to take both a player who will have an immediate impact as well as a project. Of course, this deal can't be really made until the first six picks go down because I'd hate to miss out on someone like Ty Thomas or Rudy Gay because we traded down before the draft.

Philadelphia - 13: The BYC on Korver and Dalembert make any deals hard to figure but I wouldn't be stunned if some sort of offer was brewing in the heads of Billy King and Ainge. If the Sixers are looking to clear out their two long term deals (Korver and Dalembert) they might be interested in Raef's smaller contract, moving up 6 spots, and one of our young guys. It's highly unlikely though.

Utah - 14: The Jazz are another team that is looking to move up. They are also looking to cut salary. If all they want is shorter team contracts then something along the lines of Raef and the 7 for Boozer and the 14 could be the starting point of trade discussions. It would likely take one of our young guys to make it happen. Still, the Jazz have got to think they can get a little something better (or an expiring contract) for Carlos. Granted, Kevin O'Connor is a god-awful GM so it could happen but I'd think that they'd rather wait on other possible offers rather than take a deal like we can offer on draft day.

Indiana - 17: Veal for the 17! I wish. Something involving Jackson and Tinsley for Raef and the 7? Bird's nest is a mess and there isn't much that I'd be interested in getting back in a deal. There's always Jermaine, Jackson for Wally, Jefferson, Green and the 7 but I don't see Indiana going for that one.

Washington - 18: Antawn Jamison could again be on the move but we'd probably have to throw in one of our young guys along with Raef and the 7 for him. And how much do we really want him? His deal is a year shorter than Raef's (two years shorter if he opts out) but again, this is likely a situation in which we have to give up a lot for a veteran who could be gone before we know it. There's something to talk about here but, most likely, nothing that I'd say Yes to.

Sacramento - 19: By this point in the draft, we'd have to get a pretty damn good player to move down this far or we're giving up a young guy for another pick. One issue that doesn't help us is that Tony Allen's court case won't be cleaned up until after the draft so I'm not sure how interested people will be in him. He'd be the most likely to go unless Gomes play impressed people enough to fetch a late pick. Sactown might be interested in Allen but I can't see a deal being made.

New York - 20, 29: I would hope to god that Ainge isn't interested in Marbury. Wally and Veal for Mo Taylor (expiring deal) and Jamal Crawford could be interesting although if we have to fall from 7 to 20, 29 it becomes less intriguing. Again, there are deals to be discussed here but the odds of them actually panning out aren't likely.

Phoenix - 21, 27: Don't really see anything happening. Not sure who we have besides Pierce that would really interest them or who we'd be willing to give up for these late picks. Kurt Thomas could be on the block but, again, we don't really have anything of interest.

New Jersey - 22, 23: If only they had one more higher pick they could reenact their Eddie Griffin deal from 2001. Except we'd be on the right side of the deal as opposed to Houston being on the wrong end. While there might be talk of a trade, the Nets need as many guys on small rookie deals as they can manage. Two upperclassmen will likely be the choice here for the Nets who could bolster their bench if they choose wisely.

Memphis - 24: Memphis has been looking at combo guards. They might be interested in Delonte but what do they have that would entice us to deal him? You have to really hate Veal or love someone who slipped to 24 to think he and Delonte for Damon Stoudamire and the 24 is a deal that we should make.

Cleveland - 25: I might just cry if we made some sort of deal involving the 7 and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Again, by this point deals will be very minor, a future first for a pick. With 2007 looking like it could be a loaded draft, it would be better to show some patience. On a side note, can you believe Drew Gooden is just ending his rookie contract? Hasn't it seemed like he's been in the league longer than that?

LA Lakers - 26: As I've written before, I'd love to go after Lamar Odom. Even if it took Wally and moving down from 7 to this spot I think it could be a very positive move for Gang Green.

Dallas - 28: They're pretty stacked at every position and I'm sure Nellie already has some hard-to-pronounce name with a lot of vowels on an index card somewhere waiting.

Teams without picks:

Denver: I don't want to go anywhere near Kenyon Martin so let's not even discuss that. A sign-and-trade with Nene probably would take longer than the draft to finalize. Probably nothing to see here.

Detroit: Nada mucho.

Miami: Is it time to trade for 'Toine again or do we need to reacquire Eric Williams again first? Unless they implode and are willing to deal Jason Williams for scraps and the 7, nothing will likely go down.

LA Clippers: The Clippers were rumored to be shopping Corey Maggette for a lottery pick. While I like Corey, I just don't see him fitting here.

Milwaukee: A deal for Magloire and Mo Williams involving the 7 would be interesting but we don't have the contracts that would make Milwaukee want to pull the trigger. Tony Allen for Mo is possible but that would likely go down after the draft and after their GM can't get any better for his Mo/Magloire package (but he probably could get better deals so it's a stretch). If nobody falls, Mo Williams for the 7 is interesting but I'm not sold that Mo, a true PG, is THAT good. Would we better rolling the dice on a combo guard like Foye instead? This is a team that I'd love to deal with but I think other teams have more to offer.

San Antonio: They'll likely finalize the deal with the Hornets (Bones Barry for JR Smith) which didn't get to the commish's office in time for the midseason deadline. I don't think we have the assets that they need to get back on top. I can't really see anything going down with us.

So what it all comes down to is that if David Stern make the nerve-racking yet joyous utterance that he has a trade to announce, the most likely partners with the C's are Portland and New Orleans with the Lakers & Jazz being dark horses and the Nuggets and Wizards being longshots that I don't think many people want to see come in.

May 27, 2006

Draft 2006: A Look Back at Ten Years of Teenagers

Kevin Garnett was not supposed to be the kid that changed the game. Clearly, 1995 wasn't going to be the year a player made the leap from prep to the pros. If the much-hyped Felipe Lopez opted for college the year before, who was Garnett to think he didn't need to head to Michigan? Besides, sports reporters across the nation were already setting up Schea Cotton, one year behind KG, as The One.
Funny how things work out. While KG declared for the draft and has become one of the premiere players in the NBA, fellow prodigies Lopez and Cotton flamed out in college. Cotton never really made it to the NBA while Lopez struggled to hang on as a journeyman.

Regardless of who changed the game, the fact remained that the era between 1995 and 2005 will always be known as the Decade of The Prodigy. David Stern put the kibosh on the straight-from-high-school crowd by adding an age limit in the latest collective bargaining agreement and while supporters like to point out that the move will help high schoolers, will it really? How much did coming out early hurt the young players?

The simple answer is that it didn't. Unscrupulous agents were able to convince a few players like Korleone Young and Ousmanne Cisse that their stock was much higher than it truly was but the bottom line is that high schoolers picked in the first round were as, if not more, successful than their collegiate counterparts. (And let's be honest, neither Cisse or Young, undersized PF's really had much of a shot at making the league, college or no college.) While people like to point at the disappointing 2001 class as a sign of too young, too soon, it should be pointed out that seven collegians from the first round of that draft are already out of the league. In the ten years of high schoolers, only one is currently not in the NBA or NBDL: the troubled Leon Smith. True, Kwame, Curry, Chandler, Diop might not be franchise players but are they worse off than their classmates from the 2001 McDonalds All-American game: Carlos Hurt, Chris Thomas, Maurice Williams, Rashaad Carruth, Dajuan Wagner, Julius Hodge, Anthony Richardson, James White, David Harrison, Terrance Ford, Aaron Miles, Cedric Bozeman, Daniel Ewing, Kelvin Torbert, Josh Childress, Jawad Williams, David Lee, Rick Rickert, Wayne Simien.

In 2001, David Stern weighed in on the high school movement and gave a very telling quote:
"I believe that kids are now bouncing the ball in school yards saying, 'Just get to be 17 and that's where I'm going,'" Stern said. "The result of that is bad policy. It's bad for the kid's development, bad for the college game, bad for the business of the NBA."
As I've said before, "bad for the kid's development" is pure propaganda. If anything, NBA teams are more interested in a kid's long term development than colleges. NBA teams are hoping to draft someone who will be with them for a career while colleges are only interested in winning games in the next four years. Gerald Wallace had to leave Alabama because he knew that his NBA position was SF but his coach Mark Gottfriend wanted him to fill the team's need a PF. Instead of playing out of position for three more years or transferring (and having to sit out a year and then hoping his new coach won't recruit a SF and try to move him to PF again), Wallace left after one year and has become a great young prospect and one of the better defensive players in the NBA. College thinks about the program while NBA develops programs to help the kids. Because of limited practice time in NCAA's, the NBA is a much better place to develop. How many colleges can hire Clifford Ray or monitor offseason workouts for their young big men?

Now "bad for the college game" is 100% true. The better talent, the better the college game. The one thing it will change is the wide-open NCAA tournament climate that has prevailed the last few years. The better prospects will go to the better schools strengthening the powerhouses and likely making opening weekend upsets a little more scarce. Personally, I feel like it's somewhat unfair to force kids to play for "free" in the NCAA's, an organization that even limits the part-time work that players can take part in. For many players, like Memphis' Shawne Williams, this simply isn't an option. For these hardship players, the NBA is just delaying the inevitable. Williams is entering the NBA this year, even though he didn't exactly wow scouts with his play this season, because he needs to support his family and it doesn't make any sense whatsoever to pass up a chance at guaranteed contract worth millions, especially when there's no guarantees that the same contract will be waiting for him if he stays in school. There are as many players who stayed in college too long as there are those that came out too early. It should be very interesting to see if more players follow his lead. Will players now stay in college longer or will the kids who were coming out of high school just come out after their freshman year? How long the Class of '06 stays in school? While only three freshman entered this years draft, that could be attributed to the great Age Limit exodus to the draft of the last year's high school seniors. Will guys like Durant, Oden, Wright, and Young stay in school or will this move just increase the amount of one-and-done's in the draft?

In the end, it's all about money. Notice that in Stern's quote, he didn't say that the high schoolers were bad for the NBA. He couldn't. He knows that he can't really argue that KG, Kobe, T-Mac, Jermaine O'Neal, Amare and Lebron are bad for the NBA. He said it was bad for "the business of the NBA". This is 100% true, the NBA was having to pay money for potential and developing players . Rather than having the NCAA take care of the development, the NBA now has to foot the bill for their young players. A player like DeSagana Diop or Kendrick Perkins took/will likely take their entire rookie deals to become players and even then, there's really no telling how good they'll finally end up. This is how guys like Jonathon Bender and Darius Miles end up getting big money contracts even though they haven't really shown anything on the court. Instead of trying to decide whether or not to draft these players, NBA teams were forced to decide how much they'd be willing to pay to keep them around. In the NBA pre-KG, freshman and sophomores usually only came out if they had proved that they were ready for the game. While the NBA would love to get back to those days, the fact is that the draft is a game of potential now. And if anyone is to blame for that, it is the NBA for expanding the league so that rosters are so thin that it almost seems like a waste not to hold a spot or two for a young project.
Another issue is the fact that high schoolers will be able to sign at least two full max contracts in their career and could manage to sign three. Paul Pierce entered the league after three years at Kansas. He is looking to extend his contract and already people are questioning how much he should really get since he will be 30 or 31 when that contract (his second max deal) will start. Compare that to Kobe who will be 32 when his second max contract ends. A study showed that forcing someone like Lebron James to go to college for two years could cost him upwards of 100 million dollars. God forbid he get injured while in college ala Randy Livingston, a top prospect that blew out both of his knees at LSU. While it saves the NBA money, to tell someone like Lebron that he has to play for free in the NCAA's or play for peanuts in the NBDL (which has a lower age limit) is patently unfair.

As for this draft, nothing has been improved. The draft pool is light at the top. The best "can't miss" prospect is heading to Ohio State and none of the collegiate prospects look like guys who can step and make a major difference next season, be it freshman Ty Thomas, sophomores LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay, junior Adam Morrison or even seniors Brandon Roy or Rodney Carney. There are still prospects skating by on potential ala Rajon Rondo, Cedric Simmons, and Patrick O'Bryant. But don't worry, the "business of the NBA" is better off today then it was yesterday.

Draft 2006: SoulMock #2

Of course, I again have to start by saying this is a take on what I think teams SHOULD do and not what will happen. Because of this reason, there are an inordinate amount of trades in my mock. This year is strange as there are a number of team in the high lottery (Toronto, Minnesota, Boston, Houston, Chicago) that are looking for a veteran rather than a prospect.

That being said, let's start with a predraft trade, shall we? Chicago, Seattle, and Toronto start the party off with a seven player, three pick deal. Toronto gets Luol Deng and Luke Ridnour, Chicago gets Ray Allen, Charlie Villenueva. and the #10 pick in the draft. Seattle gets Ben Gordon, Joey Graham, #2, and #16 draft pick. (Note: All three teams are under the cap so the salaries don't have to match exactly. Also tweaks could be made: Nocioni for Deng, Seattle dumps Fortson, etc.) Chicago adds a superstar, a low post offensive threat and hold onto a pick, Seattle rebuilds with youth with two young players and two picks, the Raptors add players that fit Colangelo's system.

And now onto the draft

1: Toronto: There are a lot of deals that Toronto could make with this pick as the Blazers, Hawks, and Golden St. could all make intriguing offers. Now on of those team might make an offer that is too good to refuse, but realistically I think the Raptors might be best suited by just grabbing Chris Bosh's friend LaMarcus Aldridge. Because Bosh and Aldridge as so athletic, the Raptors could essentially play small ball style but with two legitimate big men running alongside Deng, Mo P., and Ridnour.

2: Seattle: With Rashard Lewis likely on the block (and if not on the block, likely on the free agent market when he opts out of his contract after next season), the Sonics bring in a local prospect, Adam Morrison to help draw the fans. The Sonics build with youth with: Gordon, Graham, Mickael Gelabale, Damien Wilkins, Chris Wilcox, Johan Petro, and Robert Swift.

3: Charlotte: While Bernie Bickerstaff has recently supported Rudy Gay, saying the young UConn prospect is getting a bad rap, I think Brandon Roy fits in better with the pieces that the 'Cats currently have in place. If Bernie believes Okafor and May's injury problems will continue, he might opt for another big man but I think the best choice would be the senior guard from Washington, a player who fits right in to the Bobcats starting lineup and is a nice complement to both Ray Felton and Gerald Wallace.

4. Portland: Try as they might, the Blazers just can't move up in the draft. As it turns out, they don't have to. Reports might say that John Nash is interested in Andrea Bargnani but I think it would be better to look to just dump dingbat Darius Miles and add Rudy Gay as a running mate to Telfair, Webster, and Randolph. If things go well, the Blazers will be improved yet terrible again next season, giving them a shot at a premier big man in the 2007 draft.

5. Atlanta: Another team that tried to move up and didn't need to, the Hawks add another versatile big man in Andrea Bargnani who looks to be a perfect complement to the ever-improving Josh Smith. A Johnson/Smith/Bargnani trio could be a load to deal with in a few years. As for their needs at PG, Bargnani is too good of a prospect to pass up in favor of any of the questionable lead guards in this draft. If the pick isn't Bargnani, it would likely be defensive-minded Ty Thomas. The Hawks may part with the pick is a blockbuster for a big name superstar but for now, I think the Hawks are better off adding to their arsenal of young players. They can go after a PG (Claxton, Banks, James) in the free agent market.

6. Minnesota: The ideal move for the Wolves would be to deal the pick along with two of their big contracts in hopes of opening up cap space. If they could dump Blount and Hassell for expiring deals, it opens up ten million in cap space. That combined with Ricky Davis would open up the chance at a max contract in a sign-and-trade. The one issue, of course, is who in their right mind would want any of Kevin McHale's bad decisions? No team under the cap is interested in a long term mediocre player and the Wolves are over the cap so they can't make a player for pick deal. Would they be willing to make deals for Mo Williams/Jamaal Magloire or Zydrunas Ilgauskas? They'd probably have to add McCants to make either deal work, which would be giving up too much. Making things even harder is the fact that most of the players that are on the block are PF's which is KG's best position. One four who could work with KG is Antawn Jamison, but would Washington be willing to take Blount and Griffin if it meant getting Ty Thomas? There's always the Knicks but would Isiah be willing to deal Francis for some smaller names and Thomas? I'm not sure what deal will happen but odds are the Wolves will take the best bargaining chip available and take Tyrus Thomas and hope to figure out a deal.

7. Boston: The Celtics will take the best player available. That's the easy part. Who the best player available is exactly is the difficult part. Do we go big to backup their young, fragile big men or do we fill the PG role with Randy Foye or Marcus Williams. There's been talk amongst fans of a Telfair, Ratliff for Lafrentz, #7 deal but I'm not a big fan of Bassy's. Right now, and this is certain to change, I say go for the best pure PG in the draft, and that's Marcus Williams. He's got red flags galore but I see him being, at the very least, a healthy Jamaal Tinsley type player.

8. Houston: While point guard is a concern, I think the absolute hole at the small forward spot is a more pressing concern. While Randy Foye and Ronnie Brewer could get some looks, I think the obvious choice here is Rodney Carney who should serve nicely as an perimeter outlet on offense making people pay for doubling T-Mac or Yao.

9. Golden St.: The Warriors need to make a trade because they have too much at every position besides center to be as bad as they are. Very few teams can start a lineup of top ten picks (Davis, Richardson, Dunleavy, Diogu, Foyle) and still be bad enough to get a top ten pick. But since they seem to have a need at center, they might as well take the big man du jour and grab Patrick O'Bryant.

10. Chicago: The Bulls moved up from 16 in their deal with Toronto/Seattle to add another big man to back up Tyson Chandler. With O'Bryant gone, their choice is between Tiago Splitter and Cedric Simmons. It's a tough decision but for now I see them taking the defensive center from NC State Cedric Simmons.

11. Orlando: The one thing this team could really use is a dead-eye shooter at the two guard. Sounds like a job for J.J. Redick. One of the unknown foreigners like Thabo Sefolosha or Marcus Vinicius could work their way up the charts but right now I think this is the perfect situation for Redick and the Magic.

12. LA Clippers: Come on, we couldn't have THAT many picks go by without a deal. The Clippers have been looking to deal Corey Maggette f