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November 28, 2006

Gasol on the fire

ESP_Pau_Gasol2_o.jpg Danny Ainge offered the house for Pau Gasol. And odds are, he'll have to give up the house to get the young Spaniard. While the thought of adding Pau is great, the reality is that there are some very long odds against it. Unless we find a third team interested in getting involved, the package that we have to offer probably won't be enough to steal away Gasol.

This highlights a problem with our "asset" strategy: other teams have assets as well and probably won't be gung-ho about trading a star for more guys that might or might not pan out. In this case, the Grizzlies have Kyle Lowry, Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick, Alexander Johnson, and Lawrence Roberts. If they are trading Gasol, they'll likely want a blue-chipper who can be the star to lead these guys. What they would likely shy away from is adding more middling young talent and essentially becoming Boston South. While our young talent might be a bit better than the Grizz's, the difference is not enough for them to give up their only star player. The Grizz would probably push for, at least, Jefferson, Green, West, the unprotected 2007 pick and Theo Ratliff, the remainder of whose salary the Celtics would have to pay. The last part might be what ruins the deal as I can't see Wyc agreeing to once again pay for someone who doesn't play for the C's.

Like the Boozer and Iverson rumors, this deal is going to be a lot of hype, some false hope, but it ain't happening.

November 22, 2006

A Sorry State of Affairs

A few years ago, there were two things that I didn't think could get any worse. The first was Hollywood movies and the second was the Eastern Conference. Astonishingly, this year has us facing what appears to be the nadir for both. Name a best picture nominee for 2006. The Departed? Little Miss Sunshine? The Prestige? Not much there. Name a great team in the East. Cleveland? Orlando? Miami? So far not so good.

The mighty have fallen in the East and nobody has stepped up to take their place. Cleveland, Chicago and Orlando are the best candidates but they are still a player or two away from truly contending in the West. Cleveland supporting cast is more Pips than Pippen, Chicago can't score (yet somehow felt it wise to dump J.R. Smith for nothing), and Orlando is too young. Meanwhile, Miami is looking a step slower, Detroit is a champion on the verge of rebuilding, and Indiana is a mess of similarly talent players and bad contracts. Perhaps most surprising of all is the New Jersey Nets, a team that could easily implode if they don't get things together. Vince is a free agent and Kidd's never been afraid to wonder aloud about more victorious pastures. Somehow, the "elite" of the Eastern Conference has turned into a mix of Has Beens and Not Quites.

However, even in its darkest days, the East always seemed to have one thing going for it and that was superior coaching. But even this has shifted. Over the last decade, five coaches have led an Eastern Conference team to the NBA Finals, one is Pat Riley, one is Larry Brown, and the other three now coach in the West (Byron Scott, Jeff Van Gundy, and Phil Jackson). The first coach fired in the Western Conference would probably have a good shot at being the best coach in the Atlantic Division. (Dwayne Casey being the obvious exception).

I'm not sure what can be done to remedy this problem but the simple fact is this; whoever just misses the playoffs in the West could have had a shot to make the Finals in the East.

November 18, 2006

Win #3: Wait a minute!

First off, it was a huge night for Gerald Green. True he only had nine points but he scored his first basked from inside the arc. Before this game he was 0 - 7 from 2, and 7 - 11 from 3. The key stat for the Celtics seems to be Paul Pierce's turnovers. Only one tonight. It seems obvious but people need to remind Paul that he shouldn't force things because the closer he gets to double digit turnovers, the worse our chances of winning become. Delonte West has woken up and Bassy stuck it to his old mates. A big win before the key matchup, New York vs. Boston. The Knicks are coming off of a blowout win in Miami so this game could decide who is the most mediocre team in the Atlantic.

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November 17, 2006

The Jailblazers is Back!

Just when Zach Randolph was getting some trade value a report like this comes out. Although I have to say that the rigid nature of legal writing plus the loose morals of Zach Randolph equals comic gold. 4804.jpg
Defendant Zachary ("Zach") McKenzie Randolph ("Randolph") is a resident of West Lim, Clackamas County, Oregon. According to the police report ofthe investigation into potential charges of sexual assault and soliciting prostitution against Randolph, one of Randolph's acquaintances that the police interviewed reported that Randolph "considers himself a gangster" and that he says on occasion ''l'm a gangster not a Blazer. " Notwithstanding Randolph's own description of his position, Randolph is, in fact. employed by the Portland Traii Blazers to play basketball and to represent the Trail Blazers in the community.

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The link to the whole story is here at TrueHoop.

November 16, 2006

Win #2: Ugly for different reasons

To start off, this was a great game for the Celtics. People are showing improvement, everything seemed to click, and it was a TEAM effort. This is what Celtics basketball should look like.

"Maybe these pieces don't fit together. I still think that they can and I still think they do, but you have to bring the commitment, you have to bring unselfishness and you have to bring the passion." Who said that? A Celtics blogger? Nope, that was Rick Carlisle talking about his own Pacer team. Ladies and gentleman of Celtic nation, if there's a team we should be happy we aren't fans of, it's the Indiana Pacers.

Poor Rick Carlisle. He has a team with limited talent in Detroit, helps make them a 50 win team and is shown the door before getting a chance to get a shot at the title. Now he has a lot of talent but all of them fit the same role. His point guards, Jamaal Tinsley and Sarunas Jasikevicius simply have too many problems to survive in the Rick Carlisle system without some backup. The Granger/Harrington/JO backline is talented but not strong enough to man the paint against all those that blow past the PG's. The truth of the matter is that, besides O'Neal, the most important player on the Pacers is Darrell Armstrong. The Pacers are pretty much the picture of what you don't want your team to end up as: a squad with no chemistry, players with all the same talents, and nobody to lead them. (Oh, and their only big time prospect plays the same position as the team's best players.)

The Pacers will likely be much better than the Celtics, record-wise, this season but Indiana's ceiling is south of a title and is descending. Donnie Walsh is going to have to swing some moves to right this ship.

November 15, 2006

Maybe Doc was right...

I bashed Doc Rivers for saying that a rotation wasn't needed but Don Nelson's rolled out six different starting lineups in seven games and hasn't played the same starting lineup in two consecutive games. Despite this madness, he has the Warriors at 4 - 3.

ellis_180_060417.jpgHere's how the Warriors have started each game:
Lakers (L): Davis/Richardson/Pietrus/Dunleavy/Murphy
Blazers (W): Davis/Richardson/Dunleavy/Murphy/Foyle
Jazz (L): Davis/Richardson/Dunleavy/Murphy/Biedrins
Mavericks (W): Davis/Richardson/Pietrus/Murphy/Biedrins
Hornets (L): Davis/Richardson/Dunleavy/Murphy/Biedrins
Hornets (W): Davis/Ellis/Pietrus/Barnes/Murphy
Pistons (W): Davis/Ellis/Richardson/Murphy/Biedrins
Raptors (W): Davis/Ellis/Richardson/Pietrus/Biedrins

Baron's started every games and Jason Richardson only sat out when he was injured one game. Monta Ellis apparently scored points in his time replacing Richardson since he's been in the starting lineup since. I'd love to go after this guy. The Warriors will be facing a dilemma this offseason because if they resign Pietrus next year, they'll be dancing on the luxury tax line. If Chris Mullin doesn't play his cards right, Ellis could become the next Gilbert Arenas. Meanwhile, I know that Nellie loves him but the team is 1 - 3 with Mike Dunleavy Jr. starting. Let's all agree that he is an 8th or 9th man.

November 09, 2006

Win #1: U-G-L-Y

The C's picked up a win last night but it wasn't a game without it's problems. The Celtics have now officially given up (thankfully) small ball and (unfortunately) trying to run. (Ainge went on EEI saying we don't have the players to have a running game.) Rajon Rondo has found the pine and Delonte West has regained his spot as our closing point guard (Telfair still starts). As much as I don't think Delonte's a point guard, I do think that to play Rondo right now means you have to switch up your system a bit. His lack of shooting ability allows his man to clog the lane or double elsewhere. This creates a problem that IMO is bigger than the positives Rondo supplies. Brian Scalabrine and Tony Allen are not only playing, but they are on the court together. West, Allen, Green, Veal, and Kandi has got to be the worst rotation any team will put out in the NBA this season.

On a side note, the Suns, Mavs, and Nuggets continue to struggle. If this goes on any longer, David Stern needs to create a Duncan Watch to make sure that these teams' stars don't suddenly all get "hurt" with season ending injuries in hopes of landing Oden. 5c8179b0-17cb-4a5f-b016-d525ff8162d1.jpg

November 08, 2006

Is Doc seeing an Orlando redux?

Denzel's not the only one experiencing Deja Vu. With Doc's 0 - 3 start reminding a lot of people of his final 11 games in Orlando, one can only look at the current Celtics team and wonder why we didn't see it coming. While most of our guys have more potential, our roster is strikingly similar to the Orlando team that drove Doc to resign.

Tracy McGrady = Paul Pierce: The superstar that has to carry the way.
Juwan Howard = Wally Szczerbiak: The so-so second fiddle that just isn't good enough.
Drew Gooden = Sebastian Telfair: The talented youngster who has a little attitude and a lot to learn.(Okay, Drew had a LOT of attitude)
Tyronn Lue = Rajon Rondo: Lightening bugs who pester their foes on defense.
Keith Bogans = Ryan Gomes: A solid player who probably should be playing as much as he is.
Gordan Giricek = Delonte West: The talented SG who just can't put it together.
Rod Strickland = Theo Ratliff: The veteran on his last legs.
DeShawn Stevenson = Gerald Green: The raw high schooler.
Andrew DeClercq = Kendrick Perkins: The hard-working big man who... works hard.
Zaza Pachulia = Al Jefferson: The talented but slow-to-develop big man.
Steven Hunter = Tony Allen: He has the talent. He has even more athleticism. He doesn't have the results.
Shammond Williams = Allan Ray: The shooting guard in a point guard's body.
Donnell Harvey = Leon Powe: The athletic sleeper who should and maybe could but won't get the chance.
Reece Gaines = Brian Scalabrine: The disappointing tweener.
Sean Rooks = Kandiman: Big man who could have been something and now is just happy to be in the league.

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November 04, 2006

The Curious Case of Boris Diaw

The craziest thing about the small ball revolution is that its founding father, The Phoenix Suns, never REALLY went as small as other teams have been attempting. Shawn Marion was a SF who could handle playing in the paint (ala Lamar Odom or Cliff Robinson) while the athletic, long armed Boris Diaw, turned out to also be an undersized tweener forward rather than a guard. Diaw struggled to break the Hawks rotation as a perimeter and found his niche when moved into the paint. Once Diaw's career took off, everyone mocked the Hawks saying that they didn't see what he had.

However, the fact that everyone seems to ignore is that had everyone known on draft day what they know now about Boris, he probably would have been a second round pick. Tell any scout that a 6'8 athlete doesn't have the game to survive on the perimeter and they will immediately tell you that there is no place for them in the NBA. Take Diaw in the first round and you'd probably be mocked as Isiah was for selecting Renaldo Balkman.

Everyone saw the Suns success and thought they could get away with four guard lineups when in reality what they should have seen is the fact that their definition of what an interior player is needs to be updated. Honest-to-goodness low post moves are scarce today as most big men are now known for their versatility. The operating station for most elite bigs has moved to the high post, a place where most of them aren't able to utilize their size advantage. Despite this, teams haven't updated their opinions on undersized big men. Now more than ever, players like Diaw or David Lee can excel in the NBA. Whereas in the past, an opposing PF's would have taken them down to the post and gone to town, today's big men don't have the skill set to make teams pay for playing smaller bigs.

Unforutunately, this fact has flown over the heads of most NBA GM's. Even Billy Knight, the man who dumped Diaw, hasn't learned as he has been forcing Josh Smith to play the guard position rather than taking advantage of his ability to handle the PF spot. Even worse, his myopia led him to waste a lottery pick on a more traditional power forward. Knight already had a starting forward tandem in Marvin Williams and Smith but his need for a textbook PF drove him to make the worst pick in the draft.

Meanwhile, others GM saw Diaw's success and thought going "small" meant subbing in a shooting guard for a power forward and starting a swingman at the 4. Already two teams, the Warriors and Celtics, have abandoned their initial small ball plans and many more will likely give up on it. Whether or not teams will ever realize the real lesson of Boris Diaw's rise (and not allow talents like Ryan Gomes, Leon Powe, and Chuck Hayes to become late 2nd rounders or go undrafted) remains to be seen.

November 02, 2006

NBA Predictions: Individual Predictions

I'm not a huge fan of individual awards but here are my picks for some of them:

MVP: Dwyane Wade
ROY: Rudy Gay
DPOY: AK47
Comeback Player: Is Lamar Odom really coming back? If not, Grant Hill.

All-NBA (1st): Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Tracy Mcgrady, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki
All-NBA (2nd): Steve Nash, Allen Iverson, Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Yao Ming
All-NBA (3rd): Chauncey Billups, Paul Pierce, Lamar Odom, Kevin Garnett, Shaq
Note: I'm sure I forgot someone but I'll go with that.

All-Disappointment: Mike James, Peja Stojakovic, Shane Battier, Shelden Williams, Darko Milicic

Game 1: Just As Expected

Small ball struggles, point guards still learning, Doc still subbing irrationally, Pierce still leading, Wally still getting his 20 but not looking all that impressive, Tony Allen living down to expectations and Gerald Green sitting all game. Oh, and the Hornets supposed big offseason looks disappointing.

There wasn't a lot that wasn't to be expected in this game. Delonte was a surprise no-show, which was a shame since he actually got the start. I know its early but Sebastian Telfair is not a pass first point guard and I'm not sure he has the mentality to ever really become one. I disagree with much of what Bill Simmons writes (for instance, bashing Eric Snow as a starting PG but then picking the Cavs to get to the Finals) but I think he's write that Bassy will likely be a Barbosa-like backup. The question is whether he can accept that role. One of the highlights of the game was Al Jefferson who looked like he did his rookie season, which is a step-up from last year's campaign. If he can stay healthy, he should be, at least, ready to put up Eddy Curry-type numbers. Rajon Rondo was solid as rookie point guards go and still looks like Ainge's best move on draft day.

All in all, it was a game to forget, which for a young team means one that they need to learn from and build on. It definitely started on the wrong foot and one can only hope that the small ball lineup was more prevalent because of the lack of Theo Ratliff. While I would stick with Bassy at the point (and replace West with Gomes in the starting lineup), it is looking like, if all things continue on this path and the C's improve, the season will end with Rondo, Pierce, Wally, Big Al, and Perkins as our starters.

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