The LOTTO BOUND
Portland: Every team in the West could compete for the playoffs... except the Blazers. That being said, things are looking good in Portland. They have a solid young base and have weeded out almost all of the problem children. I'm still not sold on Zach Randolph as a max player but the team is headed in the right direction. Another top lotto pick and the team should be about to make a move up the standings. As for this season, any hopes they have of getting out of the bottom spot depend on the point guard spot: is Jarrett Jack a legit starter? Is Sergio Rodriguez ready? Can Brandon Roy slide down and run the point? The Blazers could surprise some people in the beginning of the season but in the end, they'll likely be watching Ohio St. games at the end of the season and wondering if Greg Oden will be leaving.
Minnesota: Take Garnett off this team and there's not much to talk about. And for that reason, the talk surrounding this team will be about how much longer Garnett will be around. I'm not sure if they'll be able to swing a good deal during the season so it might be a long season for KG and the Wolves. While there is a team around KG, Kevin McHale didn't build around him. The three ex-C's (Blount, Ricky, Mike James) don't complement the Big Ticket and Randy Foye won't do enough to turn the team around.
Seattle: Not a bad team but not a good one either. Chris Wilcox will show that last year's run of impressive games wasn't a fluke but the rest of the frontcourt is either too young or not too good. Rashard Lewis' contract (will he opt out?) will be talked about ad nauseum but it probably won't be a distraction. What it does affect, however, is what the team can do with Ray Allen. If they deal Ray for young prospects, Lewis might not want to hang around for the growing pains. In the end, it might make the most sense to deal both Lewis and Allen for young prospects and a fresh start.
Golden St.: Every year begins with the Warriors being a candidate for breakout team and every year ends with the team being one year away. The only difference this season is that not so many people are going to fall for their early prospects. Troy Murphy in the middle isn't a terrible idea but I'm not sure if Baron is the ideal point guard to run a fash break team. Defense is still an issue and I don't think the team can score consistently enough to outrun their opponents. I just don't see this team stringing together enough wins to make the playoffs.
Memphis: Admittedly, I never expect them do anything but I really can't see them overcoming the loss of Gasol. If they can weather that storm, they might be able to get back to the playoffs for their requisite first round loss. Unfortunately, I don't see Hakim Warrick stepping up enough to fill in for Gasol. Rudy Gay will help keep the Grizzlies competitive but he isn't ready to be the man on a pro team. In the long run, the team would be better off slipping out of the playoffs this season, a better shot at a top prospect in the possibly loaded 2007 draft will do more for them than another playoff appearance. Adding a blue chipper to the young core of Lowry, Gay and Gasol should have the Grizz seing the second round in a year or two.
NO/Oklahoma City: This team won't take people by surprise like they did last season and I'm not impressed by the addition of Peja. Tyson Chandler should be better than he was last season but he'll still be inconsistent and injury prone. The two rookie big men aren't ready to step in and play while David West needs to make the jump from solid starter to leading man in the frontcourt. Until this team shows they can stay healthy and be consistent, they'll come up short of the playoffs.
Sacramento: I hate betting against Ron Artest and I think Kevin Martin is ready to step in and deliver at the 2-guard spot but I just can't see these guys having enough to crack the top eight without a little help. Outside of Ron, I'm not sold on their defensive intensity and they need an upgrade in the frontcourt to do battle with the true contenders out West. Eric Musselman was a great choice for the head coaching job but he needs a year and some new personnel to get this team back into contention. Mike Bibby and Artest should keep this team in playoff contention all season and should be able to pounce on a playoff spot if injuries set back any of the top teams.
-----
The PRETENDERS
Utah: If this team can stay healthy, Jerry Sloan should get them back into the playoffs. The problem is that they never stay healthy. AK47 is already banged up. Deron Williams should benefit from playing with Derek Fisher (although he too in know hurt). Deron might not make people forget Chris Paul but he should be much improved this season. The bench is a bit of a weak spot which is why injuries are so damaging to this squad. Another 60 game season from Kirilienko and likely another date with the lottery.
LA Clippers: The Clippers were a great story last year and it should be interesting to see if they can repeat their performance. Their bench is a problem. Unlike last year, Corey Maggette needs to stay healthy for this team to make the playoffs again. After years of being the most frugal man in sports, it was surprising to see Donald Sterling break open his bank account. Unfortunately, he needed to pay attention to the recent past and the fact that Tim Thomas always raises his game when a contract's on the line. Sam Cassell is still the floor general but Shaun Livingston has to start battling him for more control of the team. Whle they might make a run at the second round. I still don't see this team as a serious contender for the title.
Denver: JR Smith gives them the shooter they lacked last season while Nene and Reggie Evans should solidify the frontcourt. Carmelo Anthony repaired his image a bit this summer by excelling for team U.S.A but he needs to take over as the leader of this team if they are ever going to make it past the first round. While George Karl is a great coach, I think this team would be better off with a more laid back man running the show. In the end, too much depends on the mentally and physically unreliable Kenyon Martin for this team to go very far. Until they replace K-Mart and Andre Miller (whom I've always thought was one of the more overrated PG's in the league), this team will be good enough to win their division but little else.
LA Lakers: It was a somber offseason for the Lake Show and the team could be better off for it. If this team focuses, they could make a run for the Conference Finals. They still look to be a players away from being a true contender but the Mamba and his amigos should be improved this year. Vlad Rad was a decent addition to the bench but Kwame Brown still plays too big of a role to take this team THAT seriously. Andrew Bynum is still a year away and the bench is the epitome of servicable. It's Mamba or Bust
The SLEEPER
Houston: For some reason, I'm betting on McGrady being healthy this season. While the additions of Battier and Bonzi bolsters the roster, this team's hopes for the playoffs still rests on T-Mac's weary back. Also look out for Luther Head to step up his game if Van Gundy gives him the reins this season. Yao is Yao which is good for marketing but not great on the court. I don't believe he'll ever be more than a second fiddle. It doesn't help that he doesn't have much help in the interior. The PF spot was weak last season and now Stromile Swift is gone and Juwan Howard is a year older. If someone else takes out the Spurs, the Rockets could make a surprising run. Then again, if someone takes out T-Mac, they'll be counting ping pong balls.
The CONTENDERS
Phoenix: Marcus Banks was a solid signing but they didn't address their problems in the frontcourt, instead relying on Amare to come back to fix that issue all by his lonesome. The problem is, Amare isn't going to be Amare. I think that is something people need to accept. His knees still don't sound like they are back to where they should be and they will probably never be where they used to be. While he should help, I don't think he'll be able to do enough to get them to the Finals.
San Antonio: The Spurs spent another offseason making only minimal changes to their team. While some people might say "If it ain't broke, don't fix it", the issue with the Spurs is that, while not broken, their team is starting to show signs of wear. This team won't be as dominant as it was last season but they should still be on the short list of contenders for the crown.
Dallas: The deepest team in the league just got deeper. While Marquis Daniels was underrated and underappreciated, the additions of Austin Croshere, Anthony Johnson, and Devean George will make this team better. Will Ndubi Ebi be the next DeSagana Diop, a high school "bust" who blossoms in a Dallas? The question for this squad still remains, can Dirk lead a team to the title? This team will be tough to beat and right now look to be the favorites to once again rise from the West.
