Taking a break from hoops, I had the first of my fantasy football drafts, was lucky enough to get the 2nd pick, and promptly blew it. Here's the lessons I learned during this ten team draft.
Lesson 1: Live in the Now. With my first pick, I took L.T. over L.J. because I think the loss of Roaf and Vermeil will mean more than the change from Brees to Rivers. While L.J. seemed more impressive last season, I don't think its a sure thing that he'll repeat his performance. Unfortunately, I forgot about this same lesson in the next two rounds when I opted for old WR's Torry Holt and Terrell Owens over the young bucks taking over fantasy. In hindsight, I would have grabbed Larry Fitzgerald and Roy Williams. I also reached for Mike Vanderjagt for no reason other than I didn't like anyone else on the board at the time.
Lesson 2: Don't Handcuff Yourself: In the 4th and 5th rounds, I grabbed Corey Dillon and Cedric Benson. Decent picks but they also required me to invest two more good picks (7th and 9th rounders) on ensuring that I didn't lose their backups. Making matters worse, these guys might actually just end up splitting carries, in which case I'm completely screwed.
Lesson 3: Be able to Scramble: My feeling is always that you can wait to take QB's in fantasy football. What I didn't expect was for one team to take a QB in three straight rounds. While I thought I could get away with taking my handcuffs and Driver in the middle rounds, I sat around and watched the quality QB's get snatched up. I had to grab Byron Leftwich in he 8th round just to get someone.
Lesson 4: Bye Weeks > Favorites: I was planning on Kellen Winslow as my sleeper pick but also wanted one of my favorite Patriots, Ben Watson. I ended up taking both only to find out that they have the same bye week. I still feel Winslow will surprise so now I have to hope one of them gets some trade value before their time off during Week 6.
Lesson 5: Manage Risk: One reason I ended up with Winslow for my last pick was because I didn't think Vince Young would get taken. I thought that I could grab sleeper receivers Troy Williamson and Roddy White and wait for young. In hindsight, I needed Young more than a needed White and should have risked not getting Roddy instead of Vince.
In the end, my worst pick was jumping the gun and grabbing Ben Watson in the 11th round while my steal was a round earlier, getting potential Denver starter Mike Bell with the 99th pick in the draft.
If the C's are going to make a deal before training camp, there's a good chance that it will be with a team from this division. We've already made deals with Portland and I wouldn't be stunned if we sent Theo back to the mediocre Northwest once we're able to deal him.
Denver Nuggets: Obviously Kenyon Martin is on the block. The Nuggets have said that they don't want to give him away and want, at the very least, expiring contracts so it is going to be tough for us to get him straight up. I doubt the Nuggets would be interested in Wally so it would likely have to be a Theo + a young prospect. Tony Allen and Delonte West are probably the top two candidates as they can step in now. Gerald Green doesn't make a ton of sense because the Nuggets already have a couple of project shooting guards in Julius Hodge and JR Smith. I think a three way deal with Cleveland involving Wally, K-Mart, and Larry Hughes could work for all three teams but that depends on whether Cleveland is interested in bringing Wally back to Ohio. I'm not a fan of Andre Miller and think we're better set with Bassy and Rondo, although I wouldn't be stunned to see Denver try to move 'Dre.
Utah Jazz: Carlos Boozer is another guy coming off injury that could be had but isn't being given away. Odds are that Big Al Jefferson might have to be a part of this deal to make it work. Then again, how much playing time is he really going to get under Jerry Sloan? Theo and Perkins might actually fit better in Utah but that leaves us without a starting center unless Ainge's plan is to move Big Al to the middle. Maybe we get Jarron Collins in return for a 2nd round pick or something but I think the Jazz might prefer to keep Boozer and the cheap Collins rather than getting Theo and then having to resign Perk. K-Mart is an easier target but Boozer is a plan B (if we're looking to make a trade) that could both be attainable and help the Celtics this season.
Seattle Supersonic: The Sonics have a lot of trade pieces but I don't know what we have that would interest them. It's rumored that the Sonics turned down Gerald Green for Robert Swift and I don't think they'd be all that interested in adding Wally Szczerbiak for Rashard Lewis. While the Sonics are likely looking to make a move (especially one involving Danny Fortson), I don't see us being the ideal trading partners, especially if they aren't interested in Gerald Green.
Minnesota Timberwolves: I don't see us having enough to get KG and I don't want anyone else on their roster who's available. The Wolves are probably hard at work trying to make a deal but who is interested in Marko Jaric, Troy Hudson and Eddie Griffin? Trenton Hassell could be a help to a number of teams but if the Wolves want to keep The Kid happy, they can't get rid of their best defensive swingman.
Portland Trail Blazers: They seem content to build around Zach Randolph and if I was Paul Allen, I'd already be working out a buyout deal with Raef Lafrentz, giving him 15 - 17 million to opt out of his contract next season. That, of course, still leaves Darius Miles on the books and dumping Darius to be the Blazers' top priority for the rest of the offseason. They should have gone after Jared Jeffries so to force the Knicks to have to deal for Miles. With Zeke off of the trail, it's going to be hard to get rid of Miles and the Blazers will likely have to take a whole bunch of nothing to get rid of him. However, Jamaal Magloire might be a piece that could entice someone to take on Miles. Washington or Minnesota could bite on a Magloire/Miles package. I think the Blazers would rather hold onto Magloire rather than dump him for mediocre contracts but if they want to rid themselves of their biggest headcase, they'll likely have to ship out Jamaal.
The toughest conference in the East looks to stay just as tough although even more contested than last season. The Pistons lost Ben Wallace to division rival Chicago but the Bulls still have some cap space and might not be done dealing yet.
Detroit Pistons: While the Pistons did lost Big Ben, they shored up their bench with the economy signing of Flip Murray for a mere 1.7 million. While Nazr Mohammed isn't going to make anyone forget about Ben Wallace, the more important Piston is Antonio McDyess. If the 32 year old Dice isn't able to step up and help out with more minutes, the Pistons could take a major step back this season. Then again, this is a team that was 14 games better than their next closest competitor so a major step back still has them as one of the teams to beat in the East.
Cleveland Cavaliers: People who think Cleveland will be better this season because they'll have a healthy Larry Hughes clearly don't know much about Larry Hughes. In the past three seasons before this lost campaign, Hughes has missed a combined 65 games. Larry Hughes is rarely 100% and even when he is, he didn't fit with the Cavs system. As for Drew Gooden, like many free agents this season, he's badly overplayed his hand. He will likely struggle to get market value for his services and can't even sign a one year deal with a team that could use him because the Cavs will match. Playing for the qualifying offer doesn't help because with Varejao's emergence and Donyell Marshall still around, Gooden will be fighting for playing time, hardly the situation one wants to be in in a contract year. Gooden's agent needs to find a sign-and-trade for his client. Either way, the Cavs should be fine. Perhaps a deal with Hughes and Gooden to Sacramento for Bonzi Wells and one of their PF's could work. Worst case scenario, the Cavs get a focused Gooden hoping to do good on his one year contract. While the Cavs would probably love to dump Damon Jones and Eric Snow, it will be tough to find takers for either of them. Perhaps packaging one of them with Gooden in a sign-and-trade could work but how much is a team going to give up for Gooden and Damon Jones at around 12 million dollars? The Cavs have some work to do heading into this season because right now, they could end up with a few unhappy campers and the potential for infighting.
Chicago Bulls: The Bulls snared Ben Wallace and then, in a more important move, acquired an expiring deal in PJ Brown for Tyson Chandler. With the Phoenix Suns growing closer and closer towards the luxury tax, they may be interested in moving Shawn Marion. Very few teams in the East have the assets and expiring contract to make it work. The Suns would probably rather deal Shawn out of conference so Chicago may be in the driver's seat for The Matrix. If not the Matrix, the Suns still have some cap space so they could look to bring in another free agent or two to round out the squad. However, what could be the most interesting non-move for the Bulls is the lack of an extension for Kirk Hinrich. Hinrich's value is pretty steady so it seems odd that the deal hasn't gone down yet. Paxson might not want to make a deal so to maximize his cap space for next season but that would be a risk. Then again, with Duhon and Gordon also on the roster, it could be a risk worth taking. Mike Sweetney also will be looking for a new deal although I'd be surprised if he got one before next season. In fact, Sweetney's expiring deal makes him all the more valuable as a trade commodity.
Indiana Pacers: Once they sort out the Al Harrington deal, nothing will be changed. The Pacers are still an also-ran in the division who might not even be able to stay out of the central celler this season. For all the talk of Harrington's improvement, he's still pretty much the same player he was when he left Indiana. The better stats are because he was on the lowly Hawks and got more minutes and more shots. He isn't going to replace Ron Artest and he won't be able to step in for Jermaine O'Neal if he continues to miss games like he has the last two seasons. Stephen Jackson still needs to be moved. Unless Rick Carlisle is going to play medium-ball with Daniels, Jackson, Granger, Harrington, and O'Neail, it's going to be hard to find minutes for everyone. The Pacers might want to make a play for Sam Dalembert to help themselves in the center spot but right now, I think they just need to get what they can for Jackson.
Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks have a boatload of expiring deals and might be able to make a play for a solid player from a team looking to dump salary. Shawn Marion is not likely as the Bucks simply don't have the assets to get back a player of the magnitude. The Bucks could just wait the contracts out and sign someone with their cap space but last time they did that, they ended up with Bobby Simmons for ten million a year which is one of the worst moves in Larry Harris' short tenure as GM. The Bucks have a lot of bodies under contract and a barely under the luxury tax so unless a sweet deal comes their way, I can't imagine that they'll be making many more moves this offseason.
If there's one team that David Stern will be rooting on during this NCAA season, it's Florida. A great season from the Gators will significantly improve his stance on not allowing high school players to make the jump straight to the NBA. Another thing in his favor is Greg Oden who has said time and again that he wants to stay in college and not just be a one-and-done. If everything works out for Stern, the Gators will win and the young freshman will show that they aren't ready for prime time.
On the other hand, if Florida falters and the players who opted not to test the waters don't improve, Stern could have some trouble on his hands. Right now, three of the top seven prospects in the 2007 draft are freshman. Some sources have even more freshmen able to break the top of the lottery. And as has been the case, coming out early still looks like a viable option. Shawne Williams had a disappointing season and still went #17 to Indiana. Rajon Rondo was out of place in Kentucky, rather than transferring and sitting out a year, he was drafted at #21 and is earning praise for his summer league play. Even Daniel Gibson, who slipped to the second round, wound up in a perfect situation in Cleveland. The problem with this, of course, is that it shows top prospects that even a disappointing season can't stop them from reaching their NBA dream... if they come out while their potential is still high. This is an issue because it won't help the NBA from stopping the incoming underdeveloped talent and it might also convince more players who clearly aren't ready (ala the undrafted Memphis sophomore Darius Washington) to come out early rather than continue to struggle on the amateur level. Also, any player who strings together a solid season on a small conference team will likely roll the dice on their potential after seeing Patrick O'Bryant fly up to #7 in this past year's draft.
This should be an interesting season of college basketball for the NCAA's. Hopefully, juniors and seniors will step up their games while the young players improve but aren't ready. If not, more people might see college as a one-and-done venture and the future of the NCAA could take a real hit.
