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June 30, 2006

NBA Draft '06: The 2001 Comparison

I've often said that this draft resembled the 2001 draft so I thought I should put my money where my blog is and make the comparison, pick-for-pick. A lot of players could fit a couple of guys but here's my predicted comparisons. Maybe in 2011, we can look back and see how these panned out.

The Kwame Brown: Hilton Armstrong.
Hilton, like Kwame, lacks the drive and attitude to truly make a difference. He has the skills, size, and athleticism to stick around the league for a couple of contracts but in the end, he'll be seen more as a waste than a talent.
The Tyson Chandler: Ronnie Brewer.
Super athlete who does well but isn't enough. Chandler is more useful because of his size but I think he, like Brewer, will always tease with his athleticism and leave you wanting more actual results.
The Pau Gasol: Rudy Gay.
Most people probably have Gay pegged as the Rodney White, but I'm going with Rudy as the superstar who doesn't have enough to truly carry a team. He's got go-to guy ability but second fiddle cajones.
The Eddy Curry: LaMarcus Aldridge.
A lot of people could have gone in the soft big man role but LaMarcus seems to be the best pick. Ideally, he'll be a mix of the two big baby Bulls but more likely he'll just be a big baby like Curry.
The Jason Richardson: Tyrus Thomas.
Ty will be the star who doesn't ever really help his team win. While Richardson is a bit stuck between the two swing spots, Ty will forever be leaning towards the small forward while his team hopes he can play more at the four. Unlike Richardson, Thomas will actually see the playoffs but he won't last in them very long. (Then again, Thomas could easily be the Pau Gasol of the group)
The Shane Battier: Brandon Roy.
People who "know" basketball love Battier and Roy but people who "just watch" basketball don't get the fascination. Roy can do it all and will likely have to be the glue that keeps the Blazers together. His team focus will possibly hurt his stats but he'll be a solid role player whom certain people will overrate and others will underappreciate.
The Eddie Griffin: Andrea Bargnani.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm not damning Big Italy to a sub-par career but he needs an attitude check and some muscle to really make it. While Eddie had a bad attitude, Andrea simply doesn't seem to have any. He needs to get the fire that separates Dirk from most other Euro-ballers. If he doesn't, he could end up battling Griffin as the most naturally gifted 10th man in the league.
The Desagana Diop: Saer Sene.
This one is obvious.
The Rodney White: Thabo Sefolosha.
While his name is harder to spell than White's, his game sounds just as soft. The one thing that could help him is that the expectations will be low in Chicago where all he has to do in his first season is be a complement off the pine.
The Joe Johnson: Shawne Williams.
Had Shawne spent another year at Memphis, I think he would have developed into a JJ level super sophomore. He has a good understanding of the game and ability to play many positions. He might be a little more outspoken that Joe but he is an underrated young player who shouldn't have slipped in the draft.
Kedrick Brown: Patrick O'Bryant.
Both of these guys look the part, might play the part in a couple of games in their career but in the end will fail to make much of a dent in the league. O'Bryant will likely hang around longer than Kedrick because of his size but I don't see him helping the Warriors win anything. Like Kedrick, O'Bryant's name will be said with more regret than respect.
The Vlad Rad: JJ Redick.
A one dimensional gunner who could disappoint on the wrong team but suddenly seem like a useful player when put on a squad that can overcome his deficiencies and allow him to do what he is good at.
The Richard Jefferson: Rodney Carney.
Rudy Gay might be a better fit here since, like Jefferson, he's a great supporting player who was drafted and then traded by Houston, but I'm going to go with Rodney Carney. I think he could step in and help A.I. and Webber much like Jefferson helped Kidd and K-Mart. Unfortunately, it seems like A.I. could be traded. If Carney is the focus of offense, he could be in trouble but as a third or fourth option in his rookie year, he should grow into a solid career.
The Troy Murphy: Adam Morrison.
A talented player who puts up solid numbers but is more of a liability than he is worth. While both Murphy and Morrison do the best with their physical abilities, their physical abilities make them better role players in the NBA.
The Steven Hunter: Josh Boone.
Boone will never be anything much but he'll always be good enough to find a roster spot and maybe get traded a couple of times. Josh and Hilton could easily be switched with Hilton equaling Hunter and Boone being Brown.
The Kirk Haston: Steve Novak.
Novak is the highest pick who'll be out of the league before you even get time to forget that he was ever drafted.
The Michael Bradley: Paul Davis.
Talented big men whose talents aren't much use outside of the NCAA.
The Jason Collins: PJ Tucker.
Collins isn't spectacular but he does enough to help his team. Tucker is similar. If the Raptors lose Mo Peterson, Tucker's situation could be like Collins'; not the best option in the world at his position, but the best option on the team and good enough for them to focus on other needs.
The Zach Randolph: Marcus Williams.
He'll shine as a backup. When he gets the chance to start, he'll impress everyone. And then he'll keep being good but never maturing into greatness. A lot of people will regret not taking Marcus a year or two after the draft but as the years pass, people won't mind not having him around. Marcus could be The Jamal Tinsley but I think he'll have a few great years before leveling off.
The Brendan Haywood: James White.
Both guys had moments in college and always will hear that they "should be better" in the pros. Both will stick around the league for some time but never make a name for themselves.
The Joe Forte: Quincy Douby.
He can shoot and score but he has no real position and is very flawed. Much like C's fans with Forte, Kings fans will wonder, "Wait, if we wanted a PG, why didn't we take one of the actual PG's?" The one difference with Douby is that his attitude is better than Joe's. He might be able to stick around the league as a shooting specialist while Forte was too bust smoking doobies and pissing people off to ever build a career.
The Jeryl Sasser: Mardy Collins.
Both are big guards who are defensive minded but are too slow to really make it in the league. Sasser never got minutes in his career and Collins will be hard pressed to break the Knicks rotation.
The Brandon Armstrong: Joel Freeland.
Both guys kind of came out of nowhere to shoot up into the first round. As it turned out, neither of them really belonged in the first round. Then again, Freeland could be The Zach Randolph. I really have no handle on him but I don't trust those damn Brits so he can labeled Brandon.
The Raul Lopez: Sergio Rodriguez.
The once and future Spanish Chocolate, Raul and Rodriguez are both better suited for Europe than the NBA. After a few years, Raul realized this and packed his bags. Sergio might figure this out sooner if he's stuck in Portland for too long.
The Gerald Wallace: Rajon Rondo.
The obvious comparison is Shawne Williams but Shawne's defense isn't as good as Wallace's. For that reason, I'm going with Rajon Rondo. Rondo, like Wallace, left college because he wasn't being used correctly. Wallace was stuck at PF while Rondo was playing off-guard. Both guys came in with low expectations and, if the C's don't deal Delonte or Telfair, were buried on the bench for the beginning of their careers. It will take Rajon a while to grow into an offensive threat but if he does, he could be a very impressive player.
The Samuel Dalembert: Cedric Simmons.
Simmons like Dalembert will start slow, show potential, and then frustrate. All the while, his team and fans will wait for him to work on his offensive game and wish he could be tougher.
The Jamaal Tinsley: Maurice Ager.
Mel Mel the Abuser made himself a lot of fans with his play as a rookie but he never really improved from there. If he gets time, I think Maurice could turn some heads in Dallas but I can't see him ever improving all that much.
The Tony Parker: Kyle Lowry.
Kyle needs to work on his shot but he has the ability to be as good as Mr. Eva Longoria. Like Parker, people will be surprised with how good he turns out.
The Trenton Hassell: Renaldo Balkman.
Small school bred defensive specialists.
The Gilbert Arenas: Randy Foye.
Part of me wanted to make the bold prediction of Shannon Brown but I'll stick with the more obvious Randy Foye. Foye and Arenas are off guards in lead guard bodies who, while not pure at the point, still find a way to make it work. I can't shake the feeling that Foye could be the surprise bust of the draft but for now I'll go with what seems obvious.
The Omar Cook: Darius Washington.
Rondo could EASILY be Cook instead of Wallace. Daniel Gibson is another candidate but he fell into the perfect situation. So I'm going to go with the undrafted Washington.

The Willie Solomon: OK, you know what, I'm going to skip ahead and pass over the guys who basically never made it. Lord knows who Willie Solomon was let alone who the next Willie Solomon will be.

The Terrence Morris: Kosta Perovic.
Morris and Perovic were both rumored to be lotto picks, didn't enter the draft and ended up being second round picks and waiver wire fodder.
The Brian Scalabrine: Hassan Adams.
Like Veal, Adams will be made to look better that he is by playing with Jason Kidd and the rest of the Nets. Someone will be wowed by his stats, sign him, and realize that he's nothing more than a role player.
Mehmet Okur : Shelden Williams & Oleksiy Pecherov.
A solid big man who can put up numbers and be a force at times but isn't going to be more than a third or fourth option on a winning team. I don't know much about Pecherov so I'll stick him with Okur.
The Earl Watson : Daniel Gibson.
A player that will work himself into a solid pro point guard but will never be a starting point guard. (Note: Gibson could easily be the next Jamison Brewer but I have faith in him.)
The Bobby Simmons: Leon Powe.
Powe, like Simmons, should learn on the bench for a couple of years and then rise to the occassion and be a surprise success when given some time. He then will get paid handsomely and, by no fault of his own, people will realize that he isn't worth the contract he signed. A good player but not someone you should invest more than the MLE on.
The Loren Woods: Marcus Vinicius.
Vinicius could be a player but supposedly gets lost and isn't always focused. He also has major flaws on defense. Woods' issues were on offense in the pros but his lack of focus was the same as Marquihos'.
The Jarron Collins: Dee Brown.
Like Collins, Brown might not ever be worth starting but he could easily find himself as a starter on a bad team. Also, they aren't perfect but they have the right stuff to keep them in the league and in a team's rotation for years.

June 29, 2006

NBA Draft '06: Apologies to Chad

Chad Ford's last mock draft was pretty good at the top. Shockingly, his second round faltered because he didn't foresee the Euro-picks at the end of the round. He was entirely competent at the end. Still probably not worth reading until the last minute but competent. I apologize for mocking you, Chad and give you a pass good for one year or until you say three idiotic things, which will come... I mean, whichever comes first. (And I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that you got scooped on the Telfair deal by Andy Katz.)

NBA Draft '06: The Early Draft Results

So here it is, my early reaction to the NBA draft.

Washington: They picked up Oleksiy Pecherov who sounds like he could be the future Antawn Jamison, who is the current power forward who isn't good enough to get them to seriously contend. Not a terrible pick at 18 but nothing to write home about.

Utah: Ronnie Brewer, Dee Brown, Paul Milsap was the Utah haul. While I like the irony of a Brewer in Utah, that joke really isn't all that great. Then again, I don't think Ronnie is either. He should be the next in the long line of Utah shooting guards who are good but just not good enough to make a difference. Dee Brown is now backing up his college teammate Deron Williams and was a solid pick, even though I personally would have taken a risk on Darius Washington instead. Milsap went to the Mailman's college but the comparisons end there. He was a good pick for where they got him but he's, at best, a backup big man. Most critics will say the Jazz did well for where they picked but, personally, I'm not sold on anyone they grabbed.

Toronto: It's funny what a difference playing overseas makes. One year ago, Rob Babcock was the laughingstock of the league for taking a soft PF at #7 when the Raptors already had Chris Bosh. Nobody seems to be all that upset this year when Bryan Colangelo took another soft PF. I like Bargnani and Charlie Villenueva as a forward tandem but that leaves Chris Bosh at center. (And I have no idea when recently acquired Kris Humphries is supposed to play) I know Colangelo's Suns team excelled at small ball, I'm not sure Bosh is the man for the middle. PJ Tucker in the second round doesn't make a whole heap of sense because, again, he duplicates the skills of another current player, in this case, Joey Graham. Darius Washington or Daniel Gibson would have been a good pick since the team is in dire need of a point guard. Add into the fact that Colangelo could have given up cash and a future pick to grab a late first and one of the falling point guards (Rondo, Williams, Rodriguez, Farmer) and it leaves you wondering what was going on north of the border. The Raptors should have improved more than they did today.

Seattle: Two years ago it was Robert Swift. Last year it was Johan Petro. This year, again, the Sonics took a project center in the draft. It's not like this team is loaded at the other positions that they can afford this fetish. Sene has the most upside, arguably, of the guys on the board but he seems like a Desagana Diop type. Unless the Sonics plan on runing the picket fence with these three and Ray Allen, I'm not sure what they are thinking.

San Antonio: I was waiting for the JR Smith for Brent Barry deal to go through but maybe they are waiting on that. The Spurs drafted another Euro, which has worked well for them. It was more of the same for the Spurs, which could be trouble if Markota turns out to be another Manu.

Sacramento: Word is they wanted a pass first point guard, they had their pick of the litter, and they drafted Quincy Douby. I'm not sure what he brings that Kevin Martin can't do better. I've compared this draft to the 2001 draft and this pick is the Joe Forte of this year.

Portland: Their interim GM must have REALLY wanted to show what he could do because, good lord, he did a lot. As for the draft, he picks up LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, and Joel Freeland. They then traded for Sergio Rodriguez and three second round picks. Aldridge will likely be compared to Kevin Duckworth by people who don't like him but I think he'll be a Jerome Kersey type. The question is whether he'll be a consistent Kersey, dropping 18/10 for a number of years, or just Jerome, whose prime lasted all of five years. I am not sold on Brandon Roy being the next great shooting guard and I certainly wouldn't have passed on Rudy Gay. Roy will be solid but unspectacular and his knees might limit his effectiveness. I have no idea who Joel Freeland is. Sergio Rodriguez looks fun but I'm not sure how good he is either. The Blazers are definitely improved and should field a fun team which is what the fans have been needing the most but I don't see their future being anything more than a second round squad, and that's if everyone pans out.

Phoenix: The Suns gave away the #27 pick and got Cleveland's #1 pick in next year's draft. I think they could have gotten someone to help out at #27 but it wasn't a terrible day for a team shaking at the thought of paying the luxury tax.

Philadelphia: Another cash move, the Sixers moved down three spots for some dough but ended up getting the talented Rodney Carney anyway. And they didn't trade Allen Iverson. And then they added a tough minded, defensive player in Bobby Jones. The fact that Billy King didn't utterly destroy his team in one fell swoop (and may have added a nice starter and 7th man to complement to AI and Iggy) makes this a joyous day for Sixer fans.

Orlando: They had the 11th pick and drafted a 6th man. I would have preferred Carney but Redick makes sense. This is the best fit for JJ but it remains to be seen if a Jameer/Redick backcourt can survive defensively.

New York: They picked two defensive minded players as if to rub salt in Larry Brown's wound. Balkman is the type of guy they need although he's also the kind of guy that David Lee was supposed to be. Mardy Collins is another combo guard on a team of combo guards. Unless he's the last member of the combo guard Voltron, I don't see where he fits in. I thought Taj Gray would be a good fit, or any big man for that matter, but I thought Isiah had a bad draft last year so who knows...

New Orleans: I'm not a fan of Hilton Armstrong and I'd be willing to bet that he gets into Byron Scott's doghouse next season. His 2001 comparison is Steven Hunter (whom the Hornets did try to trade for this season). I like the Cedric Simmons and Marquinhos picks as they were great quality for where they were. Since they had two first rounders, they should have either taken a gamble with one and taken Shawne Williams or looked for help now (ala Corey Maggette, who was supposedly available for a first rounder) but this wasn't a bad day.

New Jersey: A great day for the Nets. Marcus Williams at the 22 was a steal and having him learning behind Jason Kidd should be amazing. After getting Marcus, they could afford to make the riskiest move in the draft (best big man available) and Josh Boone should be a good backup to Jason Collins. Hassan Adams could be an absolute steal in the second round and should look very good running with kid. The Nets improved their depth threefold and with the right MLE signing (or Richard Jefferson deal) could make a legit push in the East next season.

Minnesota: When they took Roy at the 6, I thought they could trade him for someone who'll help KG. Instead they made the head scratching move of just trading down for the next pick and apparently getting nothing in return. In the NCAA tournament, Randy Foye didn't look like a pro player to me but I still cling to the idea that he is a rookie of the year candidate, especially on the Wolves. Having Marko Jaric should actually help as Marko can run the point a bit and allow Randy to score. I really don't understand the Craig Smith selection and have no idea who the Greecian center they took is. At the end of the day, the Wolves are still a lottery pick and still need to figure out whether to offer Garnett for youth or a package of Foye/Ricky/Blount for help now.

Milwaukee: They had one pick and took an atheletic defender which is what they needed. David Noel should make the roster but still has a ways to go to earn good NBA minutes.

Miami: The Champs sat draft day out.

Memphis: The Logo comes through! I think the Grizzlies had the best draft day in the league. While I'm not sure how Stromile Swift will feel to be back in Memphis, getting him and Rudy Gay for Shane Battier is a terrific move. Then grabbing Kyle Lowry was another great decision. I'm not sold on Alexander Johnson but he is a solid pick in the second round. I think Gasol and Gay will be a tremendous combo. When Lowry is ready to take over for Damon Stoudamire in a year, this team will be looking at the second round for the first time in franchise history.

LA Lakers: They grabbed the local kid to run the point. Jordan Farmar was a solid selection for the Lake Show. It should be interesting to see if this affects Marcus Banks' status on the team. With Parker and Farmar on the team, I'm not sure how much they shold invest in another PG.

LA Clippers: Paul Davis doesn't make sense because he has the same issues as Chris Kaman. He doesn't help out defensively in the middle and really adds nothing to the team. The playoffs showed the team's absolute need for another perimeter defender so PJ Tucker or Bobby Jones would have made more sense. I like the second pick of Guillermo Diaz who should become a fan favorite in Los Angeles.

Indiana: This could be the best draft... potentially. Shawne Williams could be a superstar and James White, who was also supposed to be a superstar, could "get it" in the NBA and be a more useful pro than amateur. The biggest issue is that Rick Carlisle and the Pacers don't seem to be the best place for these guys to grow. With Jermaine O'Neal itching to win, Shannon Brown and Maurice Ager made more sense in the first round and Paul Davis seemed like the ideal fit in the second. The 2001 comparison could be Gerald Wallace and Bobby Simmons or it could be Eddie Griffin and Terrence Morris. While I like the draft, I don't like the team that did it.

Houston: I've never been a huge fan of Shane Battier. I just don't think the Stro/Rudy trade made sense. They are dying for a point guard and weren't able to grab any of the guys who fell. They drafted some Israeli guy when Dee Brown, Darius Washington or Taj Gray was available. Maybe Lior Eliyahu will pan out but can you take that risk when you take Steve Novak with the second pick in the second round? Novak might be a useful pro, especially if he just has to sit around and shoot threes, but the Rockets are not a team that should be looking for role players. Minnesota could be the only team that looks worse on paper. They had three picks and three needs (PG, SF, C) and only filled one, small forward, which was the easiest of the three to fill. The ex-Celtics stat boy's fingerprints were all over this draft and that's not a compliment. After all, he's the guy that wanted us to sign Scalabrine.

Golden St.: If they were going to get a center, they should have gone after Saer Sene. Patrick O'Bryant could become a Chris Kaman type and the reason I say that is because I thought Kaman would be a bust just like I think this guy will be. The Warriors then drafted another center in the second round. Kosta Perovic is one of Chad Ford's guys who kept pulling out of drafts, He's 21 and from all accounts sounds like he should really start learning how to actually play basketball. He makes Shawn Bradley appear to be a prodigy. Marcus Vinicius might have made more sense. In fact, I think pretty much anybody would have. The Warriors left draft day like they always do, headed towards another lottery pick next year.

Detroit: They snagged a backup PG and a poor man's potential Ben Wallace. Will Blalock should see minutes by the end of the season backing up Chauncey Billups but the Pistons might never see Saer Sene's fellow countryman Cheikh Samb.

Denver: They traded their second round pick for a future second round pick. Maybe they could have grabbed a shooting guard with the pick but nobody all that exciting was left and they could easily just invite undrafted Mike Gansey to their training camp.

Dallas: Maurice Ager was a good choice if they are getting rid of Marquis Daniels but I'm not so sure that he's better than Marquis Daniels. They took the best man available but he didn't really help their defensive or backup PF needs. Taj Gray would have been the perfect pick at the end of the draft but they opted of Pinnock, another shooting guard. I mean, even Pittsnoogle would have made sense as a Van Horn replacement. An Ager/Gray draft would have been very good. Ager is solid but I doubt Pinnock makes the 15 man roster.

Cleveland: Right up there with Memphis for best draft, they could easily have found their two complements to Lebron James in this draft. I wouldn't be stunned if a Daniel Gibson, Shannon Brown, Lebron James trio was seen on the court together in a few years. They took some Nigerian guy I've never heard of near the end of the draft. I'm going to sound like a broken record but if they had taken Taj Gray, I might say they had the best draft. Ejike Ugboaja might be a real find but for now I'll have them right behind Memphis at the top of the draft charts.

Chicago: It might be unfair but Chicago didn't make a deal, didn't make a splash, and just added more young talent. I was expecting the move to push them towards contending this season and they didn't pull it off so my view is tainted by disappointment. Ty Thomas could be a nice complement to Andres Nocioni but Thabo Sefalosha is a role player and they would have been better off rolling the dice with Shawne Williams in my opinion. The Bulls are still the Bulls, a superstar away from the next echelon.

Charlotte: I don't get the Adam Morrison pick whatsoever. He plays the same position as Gerald Wallace on offense and simply can't play on the defensive end. I have no faith in a Morrison, Okafor, May frontcourt. While not a huge fan of Brandon Roy, I think he fit the team better. Maybe the 'Stache will prove me wrong but the Bobcats seem to be becoming the Golden State Warriors East.

Atlanta: I hated the Shelden Williams rumor at first but it kind of makes sense. I can see him in Atlanta. He and Zaza with Josh Smith at the 3 could be a nice frontcourt. Again, I thought they could have made a push for one of the PG's that fell or at least taken one in the second round. Solomon Jones was not the best option available to them. Maybe they can grab Darius Washington as a free agent. This draft was fine for Atlanta. They desperately need a point guard and if they could find someone, they could challenge for a playoff spot.

Boston: I'm a huge fan of Rudy Gay but getting Telfair and dumping Raef for Theo Ratliff makes sense. The Rondo deal is hard to figure right now because why trade for a PG and then draft one. Rondo is a definite talent but I'm not sure we had to scratch that itch with Telfair around. The Celtics still probably would be good with a veteran point guard to back up Bassy. Grabbing Leon Powe was another nice move although adding more role players to a team of role players isn't going to get you playoff tickets. While Bassy should definitely help the C's win more games this season, a trip to the second season still relies on the frontcourt which is still young and unproven. (No, Ratliff and Brian Grant are not going to be difference makers on the court.)

Finally,
2006 All-Rookie First Team: Aldridge, S. Williams, Gay, Roy, Foye

NBA Draft '06: The All-Undrafted Team

There were a few names that were never called on Wednesday that could easily make rosters in the NBA this season. Below is the All-Undrafted team 2006.

Darius Washington: Any team looking for a PG should be looking to get this kid into their training camp. Atlanta especially would be out of their minds to not be on the phone with this kid who could turn out to be a very talented lead guard.
Taj Gray: After Washington, Gray is the most likely to become a very good player in the league. The late rush on foreigners sealed his fate. He might have had a chance to go to Minnesota but they grabbed the bulkier Craig Smith. With Drew Gooden likely gone, Cleveland might benefit from taking a look at Taj.
Allan Ray: A very good scorer, Ray is 6'2 which makes him too short for the point. Since he doesn't have the skills to be an NBA lead guard, most teams passed on him. Still, a team looking for a boost of the bench should give him a second look. Ray could be ideal for the Pistons.
Mike Gansey: Gansey is essentially a poor man's JJ Redick. He knows how to play the game but he simply might not be able to keep up with pro athletes. He's probably the most likely (along with Kevin Pittsnoogle) to excel overseas. Denver should take a look at him since they absolutely lack in the 2-guard position.
Kevin Pittsnoogle: If he could play a lick of defense, he would have been drafted. He can't so he wasn't. Pittsnoogle is a guy who could stick around the league for awhile and maybe find a niche but might be better off being a good player overseas. The Pacers might want to look into adding him since they seem to be losing all of their white perimeter big men.

Honorable Mention: Jose Juan Barea, Viktor Keirou, Louis Amundson, Daniel Horton, Rashard Anderson.

June 28, 2006

Which Way Minnesota Timberwolves?

The Wolves are a mess. But on draft day, they could make a big move? KG to Chicago for #2, Gordon, and Chandler? Gordon, Ricky, Ty Thomas, Shelden Williams (or whoever falls to #6) and Chandler is a nice young core.

or do you go with Ricky, Blount, #6 for AI? Or something like that?

Worst case scenario IMO is getting someone like Boozer or K-Mart. Of course, that's likely what McHale will do.

Final Thoughts Before the Draft

- The Iverson rumor (as little as Wally and #7) is a tough one to believe but it also has to be just one part of a win now plan. Getting AI and relying on Gomes, Big Al, and Perkins in the middle just doesn't make sense. I would have to think that Raef and a young player would be involved in a deal for a big man if we end up getting Iverson.

- People will regret passing on Rudy Gay. He may not be a superstar but I think he'll be a top notch second star ala Marion or, at least, Rashard Lewis.

- I know I'm in the minority but I'm not sold on Brandon Roy. I don't think he'll be a person that you regret having on your team but I also don't envision him being an all-out star.

- The further JJ Redick falls, the better. The lower expectations and the better team that surrounds JJ will help him immeasurably. While I think some players would be better off learning on the job (Gay, Aldridge, Williams) and not being allowed to fall back into a supporting role, Redick will shine if all he has to do is focus on his strength, shooting the long ball. If he fell to the Nets, they could come away with a deadly sixth man, feeding off of Kidd, Carter, and Krstic's presences.

- A name called in the end of the second round will make noise in the playoffs next season. Be it Leon Powe, Taj Gray, Renaldo Balkman, Allan Ray, someone taken at the end of the draft will become a solid role player for a contending team.

- As for Telfair, on talent alone, I'd make the #7 and Dickau for Telfair and #31 (assuming none of the top 6 fall to us). However, his attitude makes me nervous. Even if he fits in, I think he'll likely be looking for more money than he's worth and may me interested in heading off to the Brooklyn Nets.

The Calm before the Storm

    Two team I thought would almost definitely be making a draft day deal seem to be the quietest when it comes to rumors. The Bulls rumor mill has come to almost a complete stop while the Timberwolves few whispers have been drowned out by the voices of conjecture coming from Boston, Portland, Atlanta, and Houston.

    And let's not forget the once and current Hornets. The Bobcats had a deal with Toronto rumored once but other then that people seem to assume that Jordan is going to continue following Bickerstaff's strategy of building through the draft. New Orleans has two picks and a two guard that many teams would love (JR Smith). A deal involving Smith to Dallas for Marquis Daniels might make sense. Also, the Clippers were said to be looking to dump Corey Maggette for a lotto pick. Where'd those rumors go?

    Much like Keyser Sozer and devil, the biggest moves NBA GM's make on draft days are the ones the press never thought existed. For all the promises people report, many of the actual ones fly under the radar. The biggest deals always seem to pop up out of the blue. So while I would expect one, maybe two, of the rumored deals to go down, my guess is that the real stories out of the NBA draft are going to be transactions that nobody saw coming.

June 27, 2006

James Dolan and a Plan That Never Works

    ESPN recently ran a story about how James Dolan has given Isiah Thomas one year to turn his team around.
But he has to do that and he has one year, one season to do that. At this time next year, Isiah will be with us if we can all sit here and say that this team has made significant progress towards its goal of eventually becoming an NBA championship team. If we can't say that, then Isiah will not be here."
Thomas assembled the roster that went 23-59, tying the franchise record for losses in a season. And though Dolan said the Knicks are still rebuilding, he wants to see results next season.
Dolan wouldn't say how many wins the Knicks would need, only that he wanted "evident progress, not just debatable progress."
And if he doesn't, he said Thomas would not only be replaced as coach, but he also would lose all his roles within the Cablevision-owned organization.
"It's his ship to steer," Dolan said, "his ship to make go fast, his ship to crash. His ship."
isiahthomas040105_175.jpg     There are few plans in sports worse than telling a GM that he has one year to succeed. It makes even less sense when the team is rebuilding and has young talent that probably needs time to learn the game. Did James Dolan not realize that this is pretty much the same thing that ruined the Knicks before? Scott Layden knew his time was up so he made a risky trade, giving up a lotto pick for the injured Antonio McDyess. It's moves like these that make GM's do insane go-for-broke moves like trading for Vin Baker. Do you really think that if the Knicks are struggling at the midseason point that Zeke won't mortgage the little future he has available to deal in order to get someone he hopes could help immediately?

    While Dolan can fire Isiah after the season (although, I do think there is a good chance the Knicks could improve under Isiah), what are the odds that he actually hires a competent general manager? Zeke and Larry Brown may have been in the spotlight this season, but it was Dolan who put them on center stage. If Zeke fails, it will not only be a mark on his record but it also has to push Dolan to Donald Sterling levels in terms of poor ownership. On the bright side, John Nash has got to like his chance of landing another NBA job in a year. It would be nice having him around to keep the Knicks ship on the floor of the Atlantic.

June 26, 2006

Which Way Minnesota Timberwolves?

     The first thing that must be done is the firing of Kevin McHale. McHale's has built one of the worst teams in the NBA, despite having one of the best talents in the league, and has little-to-no young prospects on the roster. For everything that's been said about Isiah Thomas, how many guys on the Knicks would you trade for Mark Blount, Troy Hudson, or Marko Jaric? The Wolves are facing a very difficult decision on KG because of McHale's inabilities. So where do they go from here?

Trade KG: I think the Wolves have to trade Kevin Garnett. They simply do not have any other viable options. It's either spend three-to-five years rebuilding or spend three-to-five years trying to build around KG and ending up with nothing and then having to rebuild anyway. McHale would have to be setting up the heist of the century if he had some major move planned to right this ship. The first deal I would look at is KG and Eddie Griffin for Pau Gasol and Eddie Jones. I'm not sure how Jerry West would look at this deal. He would likely try to get the #6 for the #26 but dropping 20 spaces AND giving up KG doesn't seem to make sense.

June 25, 2006

Taking Stock of the Mocks

Looking through the various mock drafts, here's what people have us taking:
Marcus Williams: DraftExpress, Realgm, Andy Katz (ESPN), CollegeHoops.net, Fanball, Killer Crossover, Okayplayer message board
Rudy Gay: Chad Ford (official mock), Ian Thomsen (SI), Chris Ekstrang (SI)
Andrea Bargnani: Dime, Sportsline
Randy Foye: Inside Hoops, Probasketball news

arton23687-240x240.jpg Despite people's assertions that Ainge is the master of the smokescreen, Danny has usually been fairly forthcoming with his picks. He expressed his interest in Banks and Perkins fairly early and showed his hand on Robert Swift as well as Al Jefferson fairly early. While I think it would be a major mistake to pass on Rudy Gay, Danny has passed on an uber-athlete for a player that he felt was a bigger need (Big Al over Josh Smith). Right now, it's looking like Marcus Williams is the most likely option. I really want Rudy but wouldn't be stunned if, like Andy Katz said, we passed on him to take his UConn teammate Williams.

June 24, 2006

Hanging Chad: Chad admits that he has no clue

ford_chad_m.jpgUnbelievably and undoubtably unwittingly, Chad Ford has admitted that he has no idea what is going on in the new NBA draft. He claims that nobody has a lock on the draft and that there are various scenarios that could play out. He then questions whether the reader would question his assertion that he is completely ignorant and states, "Don't believe me? Here are some scenarios that could play out on draft night." He then lists seven different scenarios. It should be noted, only two of those scenarios don't incluide the promise to which he's pinning his waning credibility, the Atlanta Hawks taking Shelden Williams.

For the record (or records as it is), Chad Ford says the Celtics could be drafting Rudy Gay or Marcus Williams or Rajon Rondo or Patrick O'Bryant or LaMarcus Aldridge or Randy Foye. While Rudy Gay is who he has us getting in his "official mock draft", Marcus Williams appears at #7 in two of Ford's scenarios. Oh, and if you go over to Celticsblog.com you'll see that Chad Ford dropped the names Cedric Simmons and Ronnie Brewer to the moderator Jeff. So basically, the Celtics might take one of about ten guys in the draft.

This, my friends, is the type of Insider information that only the world's leading sports network can deliver.

June 22, 2006

New Can Danny Mascot!

Best prospect of the offseason, I'm nominating Lady 254 as the Can Danny Mascot. While I personally prefer brunettes or redheads, 254 seems like the best Celtic affiliated lady to go with right now. OK, I could photoshop a Celtics jersey on a porn star or something but I'm going to change with the times and support the Celtic dancers. Back to the original point, while I'm not sure what to do with our draft pick, if Danny doesn't sign up this young lady to be on our dance squad then I really don't know how he can expect us to compete for #17. The form, the pep, the spirit fingers, she's got it all. Then again, we do need to get a couple of redheads on the team or else it won't really be a true Celtic dance team.

dancers_alison_solo400600.jpg wally_dancer435290.jpg

June 21, 2006

Hanging Chad: Chad's 2006 So-Far

Now that the Finals are over, it's Chad Ford time! But before the final week of fun begins, let's see the gems that Chad has dropped so far in this draft season.

ford_chad_m.jpg - One of his reasons for doubting that Ty Thomas had a top three promise:
For one thing, Michael Siegal, one of Thomas' agents, told Insider earlier on Monday that Thomas did not have a promise. On the other hand, Siegal told me that before the Oregonian story about Thomas' workout appeared.
That's like saying, "There are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq because George W. said so. On the other hand, he said that before reports came that there actually weren't WMD's in Iraq." I would expect an "Insider" to go back to the source rather than rehash old information. Ford made a similar gaffe in his report on how Michael Jordan is shaking up the Bobcats' draft plans. After spending an entire blog entry stating how Jordan is in charge, trying to figure out who to draft, and not hot on Rudy Gay of whom Bernie Bickerstaff is a huge supporter, Ford dismisses a potential deal with the Hornets (the Hornets' picks and JR Smith for #3) by writing: "an NBA team source laughed off the rumor, saying that Smith is not a Bickerstaff-type of player." So a source from another team said JR Smith isn't the type of player the guy who isn't making decisions for the 'Cats anymore likes? This is your denial? I'm not saying the trade is going to happen but to rule out JR Smith (who wears #23) because of Bickerstaff doesn't make much sense with Jordan in town.

ford_chad_m.jpg - He swears by his report that Shelden Williams has a promise from the Hawks even though Shelden never worked out for the Hawks and there is little-to-no chance that he would go before the Hawks pick at #5. This is really a key moment for Chad. His history with reporting promises is spotty at best. Socks Bynum's promise from the Lakers snuck past ESPN's draft guru as he was too busy reporting promises for guys like Roko Leni-Ukic to Boston (Ukic didn't go until the second round).

ford_chad_m.jpg - Chad also goes with agent-speak way too often. For instance, he reported that five or six teams are trying to trade up to get Morrison. His source? Morrison's agent.
"I've had five or six teams call me trying to find a way to move up in the draft to get him," Bartelstein said. "I still believe that at the end of the day, Adam will be the No. 1 pick in the draft. Gauging from the interest I'm getting, a lot of teams think he's the best player in the draft."
Why in the world are GM's calling Adam Morrison's agent trying to make deals to move up? Wouldn't it be a wee bit more helpful to call the other GM's who actually have the higher draft picks? It was a rare sign of restraint that Ford didn't start a rumor that Morrison would be #1 because the agent said so. I'm still waiting for the Insider report in which Chad Ford reports that gullible is written on the ceiling.

ford_chad_m.jpg- I can't imagine he wrote this blurb with a straight face:
Pittsburgh center Aaron Gray worked out against former Oklahoma State center Frans Steyn on Thursday afternoon. It's not the best environment for Gray, and the workout didn't go well for him.
While I can understand how Aaron Gray might not be a workout wonder, if battling some shmoe named Frans Steyn isn't the best environment then I'm really not sure how the NBA is an environment he will ever be able to survive.

ford_chad_m.jpg - Chad stated that Patrick O'Bryant might be worth the #1 pick because of his athleticism. A little more than a week later, Patrick O'Bryant took part in the NBA combine and ranked a startling 79th in athleticism. His vertical was worse than JJ Redick's. Chad was left scratching his head, labeling this "a major surprise."

ford_chad_m.jpg - Chad makes a lot of comments that make sense for team officials and agents but that reporters should probably stay away from. For instance:
There's no question the Rockets want to be back in the playoff hunt next season. Besides Redick, Brandon Roy, who's unlikely to slip to No. 8, is probably the only guy in the draft who could play for the Rockets right now.
Did Chad Ford watch any Rockets games last season? Did he notice that the guy the Rockets got at #24 in last year's draft started a quarter of their games? This draft would have to be one of the worst ever if the 8th pick couldn't step in and get minutes for the Rockets who essentially have two good players and a bunch of scraps. To say that only two guys in the draft could play for the Rockets is beyond laughable. The Rockets have the 32nd pick in the draft this year and I would be stunned if THAT guy doesn't get decent minutes this season, let alone the guy who they grab at #8. This has to be one of the dumbest comments Ford has made in quite some time. Luckily for us, the final push to the NBA Draft is upon us so we can expect more of the same from the worst Insider ever, Chad Ford.

Hanging Chad: John Hollinger is an idiot

I'm going to expand the Chad Ford hate section to include his ESPN cohorts.
Hollinger: People will talk about Wade, but Dallas didn't break 100 points in regulation once all series. For a team built on offense, that was a huge disappointment. Based on the 3-point woes, it seems they need one more shooter.
Only John Hollinger would look at the Mavs and think they need another shooter. Maybe they need someone who can hit high percentage shots once-in-a-while? Maybe they need a post presence and a seven footer who doesn't play on the perimeter. Hollinger probably thought Keith Van Horn should have played more because of his ability to hit the three. Hollinger and his stats are everything! gimmick is almost as frustrating as Chad Ford's Insider reports which are almost always wrong.

I don't know why I'm surprised. The guy subscribes to a stat that states that Yao Ming is the 8th best player in the game while Tim Duncan is the 16th (and Ron Artest is 83rd, worse than Eddie House).
It's times like these that I need a picture of Veronika Zemanova to cheer me up.
Veronika_Zemanova_12.JPG
I feel better already.

Five Things We Learned from the Finals

While many people were whining about refs or figuring out ways to compare Wade to Michael Jordan without sounding like they were comparing Wade to his Airness, there were some definite lessons for the C's to pick up on in the NBA finals. We could learn a lot by watching both the personnel and strategies of the contending teams. Here are five that I picked up on.

1) Live by the jumpshot, Die by the jumpshot: The Mavericks went cold and decided to try to shoot themselves out of the slump instead of attacking the rim. The reason Marquis Daniels was such a breath of fresh air for them was that he actually drove the lane. I don't know if it was the blocked shots or what but if the Mavs weren't settling for 20 foot jump shots, they were resorting to fallaways. The perfect example of the difference between the two teams was game 5: Wade drove the lane and got the much-argued foul call while Terry avoided contact and took a nearly impossible fade-away. Both guys missed but Wade got to the line. Another example of this is Game 6 when the "no-name" fifth starter on the Heat had a better 4th quarter than the franchise player for the Mavs.
Shot Chart.png

So where are the C's? : The Celtics are pretty good on this one. Pierce is very much like Wade in his ability to drive and get to the line and West is solid enough at finding a lane now and then. Also, besides Raef, none of our big men spend most of their day out on the perimeter. The person who needs to learn this lesson the most is Gerald Green, who could easily devolve into a jumpshooter and not take advantage of his quickness.

2) You don't need a field general to win, but it's going to be ugly: One of the main problems the Mavs had was that they had nobody on their team to set up their offense. Every time down it looked like they had no clue what was going on. Terry was tossing up threes, Dirk was wandering around and unable to get free, Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels created offense out of necessity rather than any sort of plan. Devin Harris wasn't ready and the Mavs struggled because their best option at the point began to believe that he was the best option for the shot. In the two wins, Terry had 33 shots and 10 assists. In the four losses? 11 assists and 80 shots.
Not that the Heat were much better. J-Will and Payton have talent but for most of the key moments in the series they simply looked like plan C, floating around the three point line waiting for a kick out. Payton was so out of it that he thought once Wade got the ball, he could go back to focusing on yapping at the ref. One of the reasons the refs factored so heavily in this series was that both offenses were completely out of control. While Miami did a better job running plays to get Wade open, once Wade got the ball in his hands, it was pretty much over for movement without the ball.
So where are the C's? : The C's need a point guard or they need to get a lot better everywhere else so they can win in spite of not having a point guard. Delonte is good enough to win but with a bunch of high schoolers as our key pieces for the future, it makes sense that the team invests in a true point guard to keep the offense running smoothly.

3) You can win without a dominant offensive post presence, but it's going to be ugly: Shaq is a post presense but when it comes to crunch time he loses most of his value because of the Hack-a-Shaq (which was surprisingly absent from the 4th quarter of game 6). Dallas simply had no post presence to speak of. This is another reason the game was so helter skelter. Instead of bringing the ball down and running the offense through the post, these teams tried to run their offense from the wing. Not only did they run their offense from the wing but most, if not all, of their options were also on the wing. I can't remember seeing so many cross-court passes as I did in these games. Neither team could comfortably hold a lead because neither of them had a go-to guy who they could slow the game down with and get high percentage shots. If Wade truly wants to reach the rare Air, he needs to develop a post game like Jordan had. (This is a lesson Pierce needs to pick up as well) If Payton retires, the Heat would be wise to keep him around to tutor Wade on post moves since GP had one of the best post games for a guard. Wade has one ring playing his head-down, all-for-naught style but a few swallowed whistles and things would have been very different. He needs a go-to move besides his quickness. He has a good enough turnaround but he needs to expand his arsenal.
Now one key word here is "offensive". If you want to win it all, you have to have an enforcer in the paint and someone who eats up rebounds. The Heat had Shaq and Mourning, the Pistons had Wallace, the Spurs had Duncan. Grant, Rodman, and Cartwright helped keep offenses honest during the Bulls dynasty. While Diop improved this year, he still wasn't making anyone second guess a drive to the hoop. In fact, Jerry Stackhouse had the best block in the paint for the Mavs in the Finals.
So where are the C's? : The C's have good offense in Big Al but on defense they are lacking. Perk is good but his lack of mobility might make him Dampier-like: good in man but not as useful on help defense. This is an area that is a question but not necessarily a problem. Ainge and Doc need to see how Big Al and Perk develop this year before they decide whether they need more help in the frontcourt. (That is, unless a sweet deal comes their way that would give them an upper echelon big man).

4) Zone defense is a much needed, underused weapon: The Mavs slowed down the Heat by moving into the zone. While people liked to say that the zone wouldn't work in the NBA because people would shoot over it, there are very few teams with enough shooters to really make you pay in the modern overexpanded league. At the very least, every team needs to learn the zone so they have another look to throw at teams. With the level of point guard play being pretty low right now and most players being more athletic than fundamentally sound, the zone will likely do to many teams what it did to the veteran Heat squad; throw them for a complete loss and force the coach to call a timeout.
So where are the C's? : The C's would be a solid zone team and have the makeup of a team that could make teams pay if they slide into the zone. The only issue is whether or not Doc wants to add zone defense into the mix while the young 'uns are still learning how to play man defense.

5) An 8 man rotation is the key: While people can go on about depth, you really only need 8 men to win the Finals. The Heat rarely went to Derek Anderson, their 9th man, while Marquis Daniels and Keith Van Horn saw their minutes shrivel up in the Finals. In the Mavs case, the depth they had might have hurt them as it seemed like Daniels would have been a better option than the veteran, defensive specialist Adrian Griffin, who saw most of the reserve action in the series. Sticking with a player lets them get into the rhythm of the series; having too many options might actually be a hindrance. But regardless, you have to have 8. The Pistons and Spurs came up short because their bench 6 - 8 couldn't add what they needed.
So where are the C's? : The C's are still figuring out their starters so worrying about the final pieces is a bit like putting the cart before the horse. The much lauded "depth" the C's have will most likely be better used as trade assets. Ainge needs to get the top of the rotation to playoff form before we can start worrying about tinkering around and fixing us into contenders.

So while the C's are still a long way away from contending, these are a few lessons that we should hold onto while we build the Green Machine to 17.

June 20, 2006

Draft 2006: SoulMock #3

Third times a charm. Here's the final SoulMock draft.

#1: Toronto: Andrea Bargnani - Small ball comes to Canada! Bargnani is actually a great complement to Charlie Villenueva and the Rapz move Bosh to the middle at times to run a fast paced lineup. While Bosh isn't the ideal size for a center, let's be honest, how many people are nowdays? Aldridge could go here but I'm not sure how well he and Bosh really complement one another.

#2: Chicago: Tyrus Thomas - The Bulls might deal this pick but regardless, Thomas is the guy who's going here. I like the Odom deal that's been rumored but I think Chicago might be better just sticking with Tyrus and seeing what they can get for a trade package of Gordon and Deng.

#3: Charlotte: Brandon Roy - Michael Jordan is back in business! Hopefully he has the good sense not to draft another possibly lazy/soft player. Roy can help now and his point skills will be a nice complement to Ray Felton. A Felton/Roy/Wallace/Okafor/May lineup isn't too shabby.

#4: Portland: LaMarcus Aldridge - Aldridge is a nice complement to Zach Randolph in the paint and he makes more sense than the defense deficient Adam Morrison. While LaMarcus might be the new Sam Bowie, the Blazers would be better off gambling on size than 'stache.

#5: Atlanta: Randy Foye - Maybe they deal it to Philly for Iverson. Maybe they send it somewhere else. Maybe they really did promise to take Shelden Williams. Maybe, maybe not, the fact remains that you don't get a much better fit to the Hawks than Randy Foye, a scoring PG who will complement Joe Johnson perfectly.

#6: New Orleans: Adam Morrison - Ok, I'll be honest. I want Rudy Gay to fall to the C's so Adam Morrison is going at this pick. I don't think Minny passes up the chance to fill some holes so they turn a deal with the Hornets, shipping the #6 and defensive-minded Trenton Hassell to New Orleans for JR Smith, Arvydas Macijauskas, and the #12. The Hornets get some help off the bench and a higher pick (and a dead-eye shooter) while unloading two guys that Byron Scott can't stand. The Wolves get two young talents and move down a bit where they can grab the best available PG.

#7: Boston: Rudy Gay - Take the best talent on the board and that's Rudy Gay. People question his work ethic but I'll atrribute his down season to a sophomore slump instead of a sign of problems. A Green/Gay combo will be deadly for years to come.

#8: Houston: Marcus Williams - They need a lot but Marcus is the best option. He's a pure point who'll be able to find both T-Mac and Yao and he's a capable scorer so he can step up when either or both of those guys are injured.

#9: Golden St: Rodney Carney - Patrick O'Bryant is a possibility but I think they would be better off grabbing Carney who'd be a nice complement to Richardson and Baron. Diogu and Troy Murphy can hold down the four while Andris Biedrins and Adonal Foyle just need to play defense and rebound, which is what they do best.

#10: New Jersey: Shelden Williams - Richard Jefferson is reportedly unhappy in the swamp while Rashard Lewis is likely opting out and leaving Seattle. The two teams swap problems dealing #10 and Lewis for #22, #23 and Jefferson. Richard's defense and intangibles will help the Sonics who weren't particularly interested in anyone at this spot. Shelden complements Nenad Krstic in the paint and is the workmanlike player who can help now that the Nets need.

#11: Orlando: JJ Redick - JJ had a bad week with the DUI and back issues but he's still the best shooter in the draft and is a nice fit to feed off of Jameer, Dwight, and Darko.

#12: Minnesota: Patrick O'Bryant - Did I say the Wolves would take the best possible PG with this pick? Oh well. When the big man O'Bryant falls to twelve, the Wolves take a chance on the project big man.

#13: Philly: Ronnie Brewer - The intial pick was Mardy Collins but after his horrific workouts, Ronnie Brewer makes the most sense. Ronnie's skills complement A.I. and he and Iggy become the younger, more athletic replacements of Eric Snow and Aaron McKie. The fate of the Sixers still rests on the overpaid Webber, Korver, and Dalembert but at least they should be fun to watch running the break this season.

#14: Utah: Thabo Seflosha - He sounds like the Swedish Matt Harpring: a do-everything guard who doesn't excel at one thing. He seems like a nice fit in Utah and should settle in between Deron Williams and AK47.

#15: New Orleans: Cedric Simmons - The Hornets add a big man to the mix with their second pick. Simmons will likely backup David West this season but he and Hassell will be just the defensive presence that Byron Scott is looking for off the bench.

#16: Chicago: Saer Sene - This pick makes sense because it is the Bulls second pick and they can afford to take a gamble on the raw but upsidearific Sene. I'm not sure if Sene will ever be anything more than a defensive dynamo, which doesn't help the Bulls since they already have Tyson Chandler, but the Bulls are in a position to take a flyer on the big man.

#17: Indiana: Rajon Rondo - He has the most upside and the Pacers PG's all seem to be on the downside of their careers. Needs would have the Pacers grabbing a big man like Hilton Armstrong but I think they can find a servicable big man in a deal for Stephen Jackson. If they can swing a deal like that, along with the rumored Tinsley for Ricky Davis swap, then Rondo fits in perfectly behind AJ and Sarunas.

#18: Washington: Hilton Armstrong - I really don't think Antawn Jamison is long for the Capitol so a PF could go here but for now, the Wiz could use a big man like Hilton. I'm not a huge fan of this pick but it makes the most sense for the Wiz. They could always use a shooting guard (maybe they look into adding Stephen Jackson in a deal with Indy?) but right now, Armstrong seems like the most likely pick.

#19: Sacramento: Oleksiy Pecherov - I have no idea where this team stands right now. Do they have faith in Kevin Martin? Are they resigning Bonzi Wells? Are they going to blow it up or go for another playoff push? They might draft for need but I think going for the foreign prospect Pecherov could be their best option.

#20: New York: Shawne Williams - Taking a project with a ton of upside like Williams makes the most sense. If things go well in NY, their current players will come together and the rookie will likely never play. If things don't go well then it will be a while until the Knicks win again and the rookie has time to grow.

#21: Phoenix: Sergio Rodriguez - Barbosa is fun and all but his point guard skills leave a lot to be desired. The Spanish Magician becomes Nash's heir apparent.

#22: Seattle: Maurice Ager - Ray Allen isn't getting any younger so a backup, whether Ager or Ager's teammate Shannon Brown, would be solid picks here.

#23: Seattle: Joel Freeland - The Englishman is supposedly a talented 3/4 player which would fit nicely in Seattle.

#24: Memphis: Jordan Farmer - They need a PG so it's either Farmar or Lowry. While I like Lowry better, I think Farmar is a better fit in Memphis.

#25: Cleveland: Mardy Collins - Before the pick, Cleveland surprises some people by dealing oft-injured Larry Hughes for oft-injured Kenyon Martin. Hughes wasn't a good fit in Cleveland and Martin adds some defense and a running mate for Lebron. A Flip Murray/Collins backcourt could work as Collins has the point skills to run the show and has the size to help Flip on defense. Shannon Brown is a possibility but Collins' size and defense make him a solid selection.

#26: LAL: Leon Powe -Shannon Brown would make sense as a shooter off the bench who can run the point. Renaldo Balkman would be a good fit but this is too early to take him. Powe might be the best complement to Lamar Odom. I'm not sold on this pick at all but right now I'll go with Powe.

#27: Phoenix: Josh Boone: At the very least, he's six fouls to use against Duncan. Alexander Johnson is another option but I think Boone being a center would be the pick.

#28: Dallas: Alexander Johnson - College career didn't show much but he's the kind of guy that could really come on in the Dallas system. He's got a solid enough offensive game and would give the Mavericks a low post option that can take advantage of the double teams on Dirk.

#29: New York: Kyle Lowry - Yeah, the team has a handful of guys who call themselves point guards but Lowry actually IS a point guard so that could help them out.

#30: Portland: Marcus Vinicius - Marcus' issues are similar to Morrison's (talented on offense, absent on defense) but you can take the risk at thirty.

June 19, 2006

Which Way Portland Trailblazers?

First and foremost, this team needs to be sold and needs a complete management trade. It's been some time since the NBA has had a franchise turn off its fan base as much as Portland has. Even Atlanta, who never had the greatest fans anyway, seems more in tune with their out-of-touch decision makers. This is perhaps the first and biggest chance that needs to happen. While winning is usually a cure-all, this team isn't winning soon and right now I'm not sure if Portland fans would even care if the Blazers started winning again under the Steve Patterson regime.

As for the players, off-the-court issues are almost more important for them as well. The supposed cleaning up of the Blazers image never happened. John Nash simply traded talented headcases for less-talented headcases. The Blazers need a complete roster rehaul, both for talent and attitude reasons. So where do they start? Or rather, where don't they?

webster.jpg The Core: Martell Webster

Webster is a good young talent and his trade value probably isn't high enough right now to get equal value. One of the better moves the Blazers could make would be to match up Webster with Gerald Green but I don't support our dealing Gerald so that deal should never happen.

The Needs: Everything

Cap Space: They have none.

So where do they go from here?

Trade Darius Miles, Theo Ratliff, #30 for Mo Taylor, Malik Rose, #20: I'm not sure if they could get the pick swap but the first move that much be made is dumping Darius Miles. This deal gives the Blazers a solid backup player (albeit overpaid) in Malik Rose while Mo Taylor is an expiring contract. While the initial response might be, "Why would Portland care about expiring deals?", the days of their 100 million dollar payoll are over. This coming season they are at $60 million and without Ratliff's deal, they''ll actually have 30 million in cap space after next season.

Zach Randolph for Richard Jefferson: My biggest fear is a Raef, Green, #7 for Telfair and Randolph deal but I think a swap like this is more likely. Richard is supposedly on the outs in New Jersey, and Zach would give them the big man they've been lacking since K-Mart left town. A Krstic/Zach frontcourt could be very nice for the Nets. Meanwhile, Jefferson is a likable personality who can do a little bit of everything alongside Webster.

Sebastian Telfair for #7 pick: The Blazers could fight to get Ryan Gomes as well but I think they are better off cutting ties with Bassy. Besides, what are the odds that he doesn't make like his cousin Stephon and force a deal out of town?

Draft With the #4 pick, the Blazers grab the big man that falls, be it Bargnani or Aldridge. I'd stay away from Tyrus Thomas who a) comes off as a diva in the making in interviews and b) wants to play small forward. If neither of those guys are available, I'd try to trade down. With the #7 pick (acquired in the Telfair deal), I'd take Shelden Williams. I simply don't believe that Atlanta promised to take him at #5. If Shelden is gone, I'd go with the best player/person available, which is Randy Foye. Marcus Williams might be the better pure PG but his checkered past makes him someone the Blazers simply can't draft. The #20 pick (if they get it in the NY deal) could be Saer Sene or Jordan Farmar. If they can't get that pick then #30 and #31 should be the best players available.

Free Agency I wouldn't waste any money on this free agent class. Maybe sign a big man to a one year deal.

blazers.jpg Possible 2006/7 Lineup: Skinner, Taylor, Jefferson, Webster, Blake with Shelden, Bargnani, Outlaw, Dixon, Jack, Malik Rose, Khrypa and whoever they get at #30 and #31
Cheap young talent, another top draft pick in 2007, and, for the first time, cap space at the end of the season.

Can they get there from here? It all depends on Martell Webster and their picks this season. If those young players can impress the Portland fans on and off the court, the Blazers could be back to contending. If they fail on the court, the Blazers have a very good chance of becoming the new Golden State Warriors: a ton of young talent and no results to show for it.

June 17, 2006

Are the Finals over yet?

Listen, it's been an interesting series so far. Good thing because the NBA's schedule had made it hard to stay focused on the Finals. I thought one of the few positive aspects of the 2-3-2 format was that there was less travel and therefore less wait between games. Why do we need two days between games that take place in Miami? Adding insult to injury, not only do NBA fans have to wait an extra day for Game 5, but they get to spend their free day talking about how stupid the Jerry Stackhouse suspension is.

June 15, 2006

Does Pierce need to move on?

Old friend Antoine Walker got the debate roaring this morning with a little jab at the Celtics.

"If he wants to get to this level [and play for a title], he may have to move on. I don’t know if he can be that patient. To get to this level, you’ve got to be deep. Look at both our teams. We’re very deep teams. You’ve got to be talented. I don’t believe [Pierce] has that other piece yet. You can’t just do it by yourself. When you think of Boston, you just think of Paul Pierce solo.”

The biggest insult here would be to Wally Szczerbiak.  I doubt Antoine would have ever said this if Ricky Davis was still on the squad but since he has no connection to Wally One-Leg, the criticism rolls off the tongue much more easily.  But how true is it?  Does Paul really need to go?

If Pierce demands anything near a full max contract, then Antoine is right.  I think there are only a handful of players in the league that truly deserve the cap-crushing second full max deal (16 million to start, balooning to over 20 million at the end of the deal).  That contract limits cap space too much and makes absolutely no sense for a team that has ownership that is completely terrified of the luxury tax.  If Pierce goes for a more reasonable deal, like the contract Ray Allen signed, then it makes sense to keep him.  

But does he have enough to help him win? Well, right now I believe the Celtics have one of the deepest benches in the NBA.  The problem is that four of these role players have to start because we have zilch when it comes to legit starting talent.  While most of our youth is "servicable" as starters, we need improvement.  But we really aren't THAT far away.  Yes, Ainge has screwed us with some bad contracts but I think Gerald and Paul are the future of the swing spots, we can fill a need with this year's pick (be it drafting someone or in a trade) and in a couple of years we have Wally and Raef's expiring deals to maybe add some other pieces.  Will it be easy? No.  Will Ainge screw it up? Probably.  But it is possible.

On a side note, there's also the discussion of how good the Heat's future is.  I would say that it looks very bright but, ironically, the worst blemish on their payroll is... Antoine Walker.  Perhaps I was being too hard on Danny and didn't see the method to his madness.  Had Ainge not agreed to trade Antoine, he would have likely just gone to Miami for the MLE.  Instead, Ainge agreed to the deal and now Miami has Antoine on the ledger for more than 9 million per year for the next five years.  So while the Heat do indeed have a bright future, the last person who should be bragging about it should be Antoine because in a couple of years, he could be the guy preventing the Heat from adding the depth that he so admires now.

June 08, 2006

Let's say we: try to trade Raef

If there's going to be a deal made this offseason, pretty much everyone's first choice would be... OK, Brian Scalabrine, but Raef would come in a close second. Now, if a trade for the Hornets two picks isn't available and the draft board seems to be holding steady with none of the top six prospect falling to us, we'd have to take a look at whether the #7 pick would be our best chance to dump the unhappy and only passingly productive Raef Lafrentz. They looks over some deals that Danny might consider:

Raef, #7 for Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Luke Jackson, #25
A deal I don't like at all. I'm not a fan of Z or his new contract (around 10 million per for the next four years). Luke Jackson has done nothing and we fall back in the draft for minimal improvement. But last time we had the #7 pick, we dealt it for Vitaly Potapenko straight up so at least Danny could say that he didn't repeat a past mistake, he made a signifcantly better mistake.

Raef, #7 for Kenyon Martin
K-Mart's handling of Antoine in the playoffs is the reason many people wanted 'Toine gone. It's only fitting that he would come to Boston in a deal for the man that replaced Antoine... who most people want gone. Regardless, this isn't a great deal. K-Mart is a talent but does better in the open floor which isn't the C's forte. He's also overpaid and injury prone but then again so was Raef when we got him, so who knows?

Raef, #7, Tony Allen for Troy Murphy, Derek Fisher, and Zarko Cabarkapa
I don't like this trade because Troy is vastly overpaid. That being said, this is a sort of win now trade that I wouldn't be stunned to see Danny make. The major downside is cap space, which Danny has stated that he doesn't care about. To even things out, I'm sure he'd try to get a future lotto protected draft pick from Golden St. I tried to even the deal up a bit but the best I could come up with was a deal that the Warriors would never do: Raef, #7, Scalabrine for Troy Murphy, Derek Fisher, Mickeal Pietrus.

Raef and Dickau for Juwan Howard and a sign-and-trade of David Wesley
My first thought was Raef, Tony Allen for Stromile Swift, Rafer Alston, Dikembe Mutombo but I immediately had second thoughts. The Rockets clear out a couple of mistakes and get a shorter contract and a defensive minded 2-guard that they can fit in with Luther Head and T-Mac. Raef shares time at the four with Juwan. Houston could angle for the #7 pick but Allen would be all that I would give up. I like the thought of Dikembe coming in to tutor Perkins but I'm not so hot on either Rafer or Stromile. Replace Tony with Veal and the #7 and get a 2007 Rockets pick in return? If it's unprotected I might be willing to roll the dice; if not, Rafer and Swift have too many questions. Still, a Houston deal makes sense. Raef gives the Rox a decent backup in the post and can knock down the three when Yao and T-Mac dish it out. Dickau gives them a solid third string point guard. I like Juwan as a mentor more than Raef and he's a bit more servicable. Not sure if our old numbers boy would be down for the deal (maybe he'd push for Veal instead of Dan) but it's not a terrible offer. This is pretty much a step sideways.

Raef, #7 for Austin Croshere, Sarunas Jasikevicius, and #17
This is pretty likely the best salary dump we have a shot at. Sarunas didn't exactly wow anyone in Indiana so they'd likely be willing to deal him . Raef could be more useful than Austin, who has an expiring deal, since the Pacers could lose Scot Pollard this offseason. At #17, Danny could add Sergio Rodriguez, Thabo Sefolosha, Saer Sene or whatever American falls. Bird might not be interested but if he falls for someone in the draft, he could be willing to move down and get a more useful white guy with better hair.

Raef, #7, Tony Allen for Jamaal Magloire and Mo Williams
While talent-wise this doesn't look so bad, the problem is that both Mo and Magloire are free agents after the season. Giving up the #7 and Allen for two guys who might be gone after one year doesn't make a whole heap of sense. Then again, Mo is about on par with most of the PG's in the draft so it would essentially be Tony Allen for a salary dump of Raef. It's a tough call. O'Bryant/Carney and Allen for Magloire and Mo? The Bucks have the #39 pick which could help us out. While Milwaukee could get better value for these two (like Charlie Villenueva), this deal fills the most holes for them. In the end, my questions about Magloire have me nixing this deal.

Raef, Dickau, #7 for Jamal Crawford, Malik Rose and #20
Depends on your opinion of Jamal. I think he grew a decent amount with Larry Brown this year and might be turning the corner. Not sure if working with Doc would help or hurt his progress but still... Anyway, if there's ever a place to make a deal, it's NY. While investigating a deal for Jalen or Mo Taylor's expiring deal could be interesting, I would stay away from Quentin Richardson and, of course, Jerome James. I think we could definitely work something out but you have to be sold on Jamal and his contract to pull the trigger on this one.

Raef, Wally Szczerbiak, Tony Allen, #7 for Chris Webber, Kyle Korver, #13
Tony Allen could be the perfect complement to AI with his defense and ability to handle some PG duties. And a backcourt of him and the AI's would be very nice. TA would likely come off the pine with Wally starting and feeding off of Iverson's drives. I really don't think Philly would ever do this but it's an interesting deal. Webber's contract is off the books earlier than Raef's and it seems like Danny is most interested in guys who are pegged for the #13 range. In two years, you could have Rondo, Green, Pierce with Korver off the pine. Cap space galore to sign a big man before resigning the young guys (or use the cap space to deal for a big man). It's one to chew on.

Raef, Dwayne Jones, #7 for Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair, and #31
One of the more talked about options, this clears space a year earlier (Ratliff's deal is shorter) and gives us a speedy young PG. Since I'm not sold on Telfair, I added in the Dwayne Jones for the Portland second round pick. I really don't what to think about Bassy so this is a tough one. I can't fault anyone for being interested but Bassy's attitude definitely gives me pause when considering this trade. I could see his value in his own mind being a lot higher than it is when he's due to resign. If the Nets move to Brooklyn, it could be hard to keep him in Beantown.

Raef, Tony Allen, #7 for Mehmet Okur, Gordon Giricek, and #14
Raef, Al Jefferson for Carlos Boozer was an initial thought but Boozer is injury prone and overpaid. I think Big Al could put up Carlos' numbers for a lot less money. If you don't believe in Big Al, this deal might make sense but right now it's A) giving up on Jefferson too soon and b) not going to make us that much better for the money that's being paid. Dealing the pick and/or Tony Allen doesn't make sense either because why keep Al if you're just going to bury him behind Boozer? Although the Jazz could raise revenue by making a Simple Life type reality series with Tony Allen living in Utah. I think there's a good chance Carlos is on the Celtics by opening game but I wouldn't be very happy about it. Raef, Tony, #7 for Mehmet Okur and Gordon Giricek. Mehmet only makes around 8.5 million a year which is pretty damn good for 18 and 9 a game. The Jazz replace him with O'Bryant or Simmons, and we grab a PG with the #14. This is a viable option although how you judge Tony Allen makes-or-breaks it.

Raef, Tony Allen, #7 for Antawn Jamison, #18
Would Washington do it? Would we want to give up that much for Jamison? I wouldn't. It's an option but not one that I would pursue.

So what say I? Of course, Tony's legal issues make all of this more complicated but I can see a provision being worked out to rejigger the deal is TA ends up in the clink. While I'm still hoping for someone to fall or for the Hornets deal to work out, right now, the Indy, Portland and Utah deals interest me the most.

June 04, 2006

Anatomy of a Contender

The NBA finals are upon us and once again the Celtics are mere spectators. The question on everyone's mind is: are we headed in the right direction? Do the pieces we have fit the blueprint of most contending teams? Now while many people will say that every contender is different, they still share some very important similarities. Does the C's youth movement have the same DNA as most contenders?

Point guard: Unless you run the triangle offense, you need to have a floor general running the point. Your point guard needs to be able to control the tempo and restart the offense when things slow down. Something that is often overlooked is the need for a solid defensive presence from the point. Many of the teams that were close but couldn't get over the hump failed because their point guard wasn't able to excel on both sides of the floor.
Where are we?: We need a point guard. While Delonte is solid, his on-ball defense and ability to run the show are both lacking and it's unlikely he'll improve every area enough to make him a legit championship-caliber point guard. He is a great asset to have coming off of the bench but we definitely need a better starter.

The Swing Spots: A scorer and a defender. This is the makeup of the 2/3 spots for most contending teams. In some cases, a team can get both in one package (Kobe, Jordan) but for most squads they usually pair a good-to-great defender (Christie, Bowen) with a scorer (Peja, Manu). Again, the quality of defense is usually the difference-maker. Scorers who completely fail on the defensive end often find themselves heading home before the NBA Finals.
Where are we? We have the scorer in Pierce and if we slide him to the small forward spot, Tony Allen could be the defender. Our future tandem of Pierce and Gerald Green is a bit more problematic as Gerald is a long way from being any type of defender. While Paul is solid on defense, he's by no means a lock-down defender so I'm not sure how that tandem works out. On the bright side, we have an elite scorer in Pierce and a potential elite-scorer in Green so at least one of the slots is set for now and the future. Good defensive players are usually available in the free agent market so it shouldn't be too hard to fill that need.

The Post: Versatility, athleticism and passing ability are keys in the paint. The premiere post players need to have range on their jumper and have to be as good at finding the open teammates as they are at taking it to the rack. (Shaq doesn't have the range but he's an exception) Webber, Duncan, 'Sheed are the prime examples (and again, the worst defensively is the one without a ring). The second post spot is usually held by a versatile big man or is shared by a couple of players who can be used depending on the opponent.
Where are we?: This is our biggest area of concern. While we have two young prospects in the frontcourt, how effective of a tandem is it really? Perkins is a very useful center but we need a more athletic big man to back him up for when we play more athletic squads. Big Al Jefferson is another issue altogether. He needs to improve his court awareness and range to be truly effective which is a problem because he is still working on finishing of his post game. Al also lacks in the department of defense and athleticism. While I like Big Al, I'm not sold on him being the best fit at the power forward for a contending team.

So who's close?: Orlando has the hardest parts filled with a point man in Jameer and two post prospects in Dwight Howard and Darko. An improved mid-range game would make Dewey unstoppable. The Clippers were right there this season but they lacked a perimeter defender to slow down Phoenix. Golden St. lacks the post presence. Troy Murphy isn't the answer and I'm not sure Ike is going to be enough either. Utah needs a scoring guard, although, more than that, they need their guys to stay healthy.

How do we get there?: The first thing to realize is that this trip is going to take about another three years so the first thing that's needed is patience. If Randy Foye can be a lead guard, he would make the most sense in the draft. The 2007 draft is loaded with big men but could be bone-dry when it comes to PG's. We need to hold onto our young guys so they can have a chance to improve their stock. Big Al's trade value is lower than ever so dealing him now wouldn't make sense. Add a point guard this year, a big man next season and then use Wally and Raef's expiring deals to round out the bench (and perhaps bring in another defensive player who can guard the 3) and we should be all set. It's a lot and, for all of our potential, I'm not sure how much better off we are now from when Danny took over but it's not impossible to get there from here.

June 02, 2006

Draft 2006: The Point of Progress (or lack thereof)

Ever since Hall of Famer Dennis Johnson left (and yes, I know he hasn't been voted in but I don't care, the man is clearly worthy of the Hall), the Boston Celtics' point guard situation has been too little (JR Bremer, Randy Brown, Dana Barros), too late (Kenny Anderson, Gary Payton) or guys whom we gave up too soon (Billups, Wesley, James). While we can all look to the past and wonder what would have happened had we held on to David Wesley (which would have allowed Billups to develop without the pressure of starting) or selected Tony Parker or Gilbert Arenas instead of Tony Parker, the more useful endeavor would be to check out this draft to see who we can find to end the 10+ years of point guard mediocrity.

Something funny happened along the way to this being the worst PG draft in recent memory: every borderline prospect at the point decided to declare for the draft. While the draft still lacks top notch players, the depth has increased significantly (yet could diminish just as fast if these guys all realize they're draft stock might be better in a year or so). The one problem, of course, is that most of these guys are gigantic question marks. In terms of the one spot, this draft is somewhat similar to 2001, a number of players who could be stars and go mid-lotto but have enough deficiencies to could have them fall to the late first/early second. At 7, the Celtics have a great chance to have their choice of the best of the lot but that brings up the unanswerable question of Who's the best in the draft?

Foye.jpg Randy Foye? The critics immediate cry would be that he isn't a true PG. In fact, his teammate Kyle Lowry is more of a pure PG. Those who like Foye (Foye Toys?) will immediately point out that, sticking to the 2001 comparison, the issues people levy against Foye were the same that they levied against Arenas. While Foye might not be an ideal PG, he fits two of the most important factors which allow players to overcome this: he's got a great attitude and is a strong leader. If you don't mind not having a true PG, then Randy is likely your first choice and a reasonable selection at #7.

marcus.jpg Marcus Williams? The best pure point guard right now. "Right now" being the operative term because he the Jamaal Tinsley of the draft; what you see is what you get. He has a lower ceiling than many of the other prospects but the fact remains that his current ceiling is something many of these other guys may never reach. He would be the sure thing point guard of the draft (even moreso than Foye) if it weren't for questions about his attitude. He had a spotty record when it came to off-the-court decision making (the laptop fencing, the inability to stay academically eligible) and his workouts so far have been underwhelming. While the current workouts don't highlight his strengths, he hasn't helped himself by showing up out of shape. If the character issues don't bother you, Marcus is the most likely to help from day one, which is something Danny, and many Celtics fans, would love to see out of their draft pick.

MardyBrewer.jpg Ronnie Brewer? Ronnie's not a point guard. He can handle the position but he's a Dee Brown type point man; someone you can be handle the position but isn't going to stop anyone in the front office from looking for a real PG.
Mardy Collins? If we trade down with New Orleans, Mardy has to be an option. He can run the point and would be a very interesting complement to Delonte West in the backcourt. His workouts have been unimpressive as it's highlighted his weakness, shooting. Some might say that Mardy is the Jeryl Sasser of this draft but I think that comparison is unfair to Collins. Unlike Sasser, Mardy's defense and knowledge of the game should help him hang around the league for years. 7 is way to high to take Mardy who'll likely be good, not great. In my opinion, the Celtics can't really afford that luxury and need to find a difference maker at the point.

bkc_uky_rajon_rondo_164_101604.jpg Rajon Rondo? With his elite athleticism and pure point guard skills, Rondo has the highest ceiling of any PG in the draft. He could easily become a Tony Parker type PG. The problem, unfortunately, is that he also could be Omar Cook. Rondo is a roll of the dice. His playmaking skills are undervalued but that's because they are underdevloped. Kentucky used his more as a slasher, almost a two guard, rather than letting him run the show. He is a true pass-first point guard which is good but he's also a pass-second point guard too because his jumper is beyond lacking. Some people have said he struggles with his shot because of his large hands but that is more of a problem than an excuse because it means that his shot is a physical issue and not something that he can easily fix. Rondo is a reach at seven but would make a decent investment if we trade down. He is a couple years away from consistent minutes but when he finally gets those minutes, it could be special.

med_1787_4.jpg Sergio Rodriguez? The Spanish Magician isn't the athlete that Rondo is but is a more complete offensive players. The other end of the floor isn't so kind to him though. Sergio makes Steve Nash look competent on the defensive end and would likely need a year to work on his defense before he could really get minutes. While some people compare his game to Nash or Jason Williams, he could also be Sasha Vujacic or better shooting Doug Gottlieb. Sergio would be another candidate at around #15 but he also isn't someone who is going to help out any time soon.
Quincy Douby? He's the ideal PG for the triangle. He can handle the ball and can knock down the trey. Unfortunately, we don't run the triangle so he seems like a poor man's Delonte and someone we don't really need.

Jordan Farmar? Basically, he's a college-level PG. He is all potential and that potential isn't all that awe-inspiring. He's not athletic, isn't great at shooting and needs to work on his defense. The only two reasons coming out now could help him is that he A) could get selected by a team who already has a PG which will allow him to learn on the job or B) he might be the new Chris Thomas or Daniel Gibson, a point guard who's value plummetted the longer they stayed in college. If that's the case, he should stay in the draft and we should avoid drafting him.

Kyle Lowry? Here's another guy who might not be as highly touted in a year or so. His situation is worse than Farmar's however because he would be returning to a team that isn't nearly as good as the one he had this year. While he could rise to the occasion, the odds are more likely that teams will be able to key on his weakness and expose them more. Compared to the rest of the PG class, he has one of the lower ceilings. If we acquired a late first, he'd be a very solid choice but like most late first round PG's, he probably wouldn't be ready to contribute for a year or two.

Guillermo Diaz? An athletic freak. He doesn't know how to run the point and is more of a two guard than a point. He hasn't been playing basketball for very long and while projects like this are usually OK for centers, point guard is a tough position to pick up late in one's career. He might make a nice pick for an established team but right now he seems to be a high risk, medium reward prospect. 33295829_6b0bbb54b1_m.jpg Sleepers? Are there any second round picks who could surprise and become stars in this draft? Daniel Gibson was a supposed top 3 choice heading into the college season but his selfish and uninspiring play now has him as a second rounder. His decision making was horrific at times. The kid definitely can play the game but he needs a complete on-court attitude adjustment if he wants to make the NBA. Darius Washington is another super-athlete with point guard skills who seems a little too in love with either his own game or the sound of the ball hitting the floor. Like Gibson, Washington dribbles entirely too much and needs to realize his role in the offense. A lot of his weakness are things he just needs to work on but that always prompts the question, why the heck isn't he working on them? Coming into workouts too heavy hasn't exactly helped ease people's anxieties that he might be a player that never truly gets it. Will Blalock and Dee Brown are two seniors who could step in off the bench this season for someone. I'm not sure either will ever become a starter in the league but they both have the ability to stick in the league and be great contributors.

With the #7 we most certainly can take someone who could help us at the point. Rondo and Rodriguez are two gambles that we may want to look at if we trade down while Williams and Foye are the two "safest" picks. That being said, the biggest assist Foye and Williams could give the Celtics is if they go in the top six as that would allow one of the top prospects in the draft to fall to us.

June 01, 2006

7up... or down... or out for a veteran.

Lucky 7. It seems like a perfect fit for the Celtics but many people seem interested in trading the pick. The reasons vary from the echoes of Pitino (We have enough youth) to the hoping for a franchise player (We need a top talent on this team). But what can we get, what are the odds that something could transpire?

Toronto - Pick 1: Tongues are wagging ever since the buzz came out that Colangelo might be looking to trade down. The problem with us moving up to get the #1, however, is that in order to offer enough to get Toronto interested, we'd likely have to give up too much. The best offer we could really give would be Gerald Green and the #7 for first pick but is anyone in this draft enough of a sure thing to give up a supposed top 5 prospect in Green and the seventh pick which, if just one person leaps into the top six, could yield a very talented prospect? In my opinion, the answer is no. If there is a deal, I think the most likely candidates are: Portland, Golden St. , or Seattle.

Chicago - Picks 2, 16: Moving up to the two would likely cost us Paul Pierce. This deal has been discussed over and over again so I'm not sure there's a need to address it again. While I would like to dream of a Deng and 16 for 7 and something (I'd say Allen but his last visit to Chicago didn't work out so well) type deal, I'm not sure it makes sense for the Bulls. In this draft, the person at 7 could easily be worse than the person as 16, and to give up a known commodity like Deng doesn't add up. Again, I think Seattle has the good to go after the 2 and there's always the oft-rumored Garnett trade. I think Chicago's focus will be on acquiring a star so if Pierce isn't on the block, we're not in the talks.

Charlotte - Pick 3: Trading down to seven would likely move them out of the range of Morrison or Roy so I doubt they'd make a deal unless, again, we offered too much.

Portland - Pick 4, 30: And now the fun begins. Telfair and Ratliff for Raef and the 7. Raef, Al, and the 7 for Zach and Outlaw. Miles, Skinner, #4 for Wally and #7. There are definitely possibilities. Word out of Portland is that they are looking to acquire another high pick so I'm not sure if we have a legit shot to move up with them, however a swap of pick for player is possible. The recent firing of John Nash could throw a monkey wrench into the plans though. Interim GM's rarely have the power to make major shakeups. On the other hand, if Nash was the only Telfair fan in the front office, then Bassy could become all the more available in a deal. While I think Ratliff and Miles are likely headed to NY this offseason, there is a definite possibility that a deal between the C's and the Blazers could transpire (even if it is just a future pick for their #30 selection).

Atlanta - Pick 5: I'm not even going to begin to say that I know what is in Billy Knight's head so this one is wide open. My guess is that he wouldn't be interested but this man also lost high lotto picks in deals for Lorenzen Wright, Big Dog Robinson, and Shareef Abdur-Rahim.

Minnesota - Pick 6: I can't really see anything transpiring.

Houston - Pick 8: If we really want two picks back to back, we could probably make an offer for this but I don't think it is likely.

Golden St. - Pick 9: The lottery veterans are entering their second decade of lottery picks. Clearly '95 to '05 wasn't very successful. This team is absolutely loaded with talented players so a deal could definitely be made. Baron is the most obvious target, however if the team wants to unload a contract, they might consider moving Troy Murphy. I'm not so sure how interested I am in their veterans (most of whom are overpaid) but I wouldn't put it past Ainge to see something that tickles his fancy.

Seattle - Pick 10: I think Seattle has bigger fish to fry than moving up a bit to get the 7. Rashard Lewis is likely on the block but as he could opt out in one year, it isn't worth giving up too much for him. Better offers lay elsewhere for Seattle.

Orlando - Pick 11: I don't see anything available on their roster that interests me all that much. Anything worth having isn't on the trading block.

New Orleans - Pick 12, 15: An odds on favorite for most likely trade, the Hornets could easily move down and allow the C's to pick up a couple of good young prospects. The question is: do we really have the roster space for two more young bodies? We have ten bodies that aren't going anywhere. If we do make this deal, it's probably sayanora to Orien Greene and Dwayne Jones. Also, this move would allow Danny to take both a player who will have an immediate impact as well as a project. Of course, this deal can't be really made until the first six picks go down because I'd hate to miss out on someone like Ty Thomas or Rudy Gay because we traded down before the draft.

Philadelphia - 13: The BYC on Korver and Dalembert make any deals hard to figure but I wouldn't be stunned if some sort of offer was brewing in the heads of Billy King and Ainge. If the Sixers are looking to clear out their two long term deals (Korver and Dalembert) they might be interested in Raef's smaller contract, moving up 6 spots, and one of our young guys. It's highly unlikely though.

Utah - 14: The Jazz are another team that is looking to move up. They are also looking to cut salary. If all they want is shorter team contracts then something along the lines of Raef and the 7 for Boozer and the 14 could be the starting point of trade discussions. It would likely take one of our young guys to make it happen. Still, the Jazz have got to think they can get a little something better (or an expiring contract) for Carlos. Granted, Kevin O'Connor is a god-awful GM so it could happen but I'd think that they'd rather wait on other possible offers rather than take a deal like we can offer on draft day.

Indiana - 17: Veal for the 17! I wish. Something involving Jackson and Tinsley for Raef and the 7? Bird's nest is a mess and there isn't much that I'd be interested in getting back in a deal. There's always Jermaine, Jackson for Wally, Jefferson, Green and the 7 but I don't see Indiana going for that one.

Washington - 18: Antawn Jamison could again be on the move but we'd probably have to throw in one of our young guys along with Raef and the 7 for him. And how much do we really want him? His deal is a year shorter than Raef's (two years shorter if he opts out) but again, this is likely a situation in which we have to give up a lot for a veteran who could be gone before we know it. There's something to talk about here but, most likely, nothing that I'd say Yes to.

Sacramento - 19: By this point in the draft, we'd have to get a pretty damn good player to move down this far or we're giving up a young guy for another pick. One issue that doesn't help us is that Tony Allen's court case won't be cleaned up until after the draft so I'm not sure how interested people will be in him. He'd be the most likely to go unless Gomes play impressed people enough to fetch a late pick. Sactown might be interested in Allen but I can't see a deal being made.

New York - 20, 29: I would hope to god that Ainge isn't interested in Marbury. Wally and Veal for Mo Taylor (expiring deal) and Jamal Crawford could be interesting although if we have to fall from 7 to 20, 29 it becomes less intriguing. Again, there are deals to be discussed here but the odds of them actually panning out aren't likely.

Phoenix - 21, 27: Don't really see anything happening. Not sure who we have besides Pierce that would really interest them or who we'd be willing to give up for these late picks. Kurt Thomas could be on the block but, again, we don't really have anything of interest.

New Jersey - 22, 23: If only they had one more higher pick they could reenact their Eddie Griffin deal from 2001. Except we'd be on the right side of the deal as opposed to Houston being on the wrong end. While there might be talk of a trade, the Nets need as many guys on small rookie deals as they can manage. Two upperclassmen will likely be the choice here for the Nets who could bolster their bench if they choose wisely.

Memphis - 24: Memphis has been looking at combo guards. They might be interested in Delonte but what do they have that would entice us to deal him? You have to really hate Veal or love someone who slipped to 24 to think he and Delonte for Damon Stoudamire and the 24 is a deal that we should make.

Cleveland - 25: I might just cry if we made some sort of deal involving the 7 and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Again, by this point deals will be very minor, a future first for a pick. With 2007 looking like it could be a loaded draft, it would be better to show some patience. On a side note, can you believe Drew Gooden is just ending his rookie contract? Hasn't it seemed like he's been in the league longer than that?

LA Lakers - 26: As I've written before, I'd love to go after Lamar Odom. Even if it took Wally and moving down from 7 to this spot I think it could be a very positive move for Gang Green.

Dallas - 28: They're pretty stacked at every position and I'm sure Nellie already has some hard-to-pronounce name with a lot of vowels on an index card somewhere waiting.

Teams without picks:

Denver: I don't want to go anywhere near Kenyon Martin so let's not even discuss that. A sign-and-trade with Nene probably would take longer than the draft to finalize. Probably nothing to see here.

Detroit: Nada mucho.

Miami: Is it time to trade for 'Toine again or do we need to reacquire Eric Williams again first? Unless they implode and are willing to deal Jason Williams for scraps and the 7, nothing will likely go down.

LA Clippers: The Clippers were rumored to be shopping Corey Maggette for a lottery pick. While I like Corey, I just don't see him fitting here.

Milwaukee: A deal for Magloire and Mo Williams involving the 7 would be interesting but we don't have the contracts that would make Milwaukee want to pull the trigger. Tony Allen for Mo is possible but that would likely go down after the draft and after their GM can't get any better for his Mo/Magloire package (but he probably could get better deals so it's a stretch). If nobody falls, Mo Williams for the 7 is interesting but I'm not sold that Mo, a true PG, is THAT good. Would we better rolling the dice on a combo guard like Foye instead? This is a team that I'd love to deal with but I think other teams have more to offer.

San Antonio: They'll likely finalize the deal with the Hornets (Bones Barry for JR Smith) which didn't get to the commish's office in time for the midseason deadline. I don't think we have the assets that they need to get back on top. I can't really see anything going down with us.

So what it all comes down to is that if David Stern make the nerve-racking yet joyous utterance that he has a trade to announce, the most likely partners with the C's are Portland and New Orleans with the Lakers & Jazz being dark horses and the Nuggets and Wizards being longshots that I don't think many people want to see come in.

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