NBA Draft '06: The 2001 Comparison
Hilton, like Kwame, lacks the drive and attitude to truly make a difference. He has the skills, size, and athleticism to stick around the league for a couple of contracts but in the end, he'll be seen more as a waste than a talent.
The Tyson Chandler: Ronnie Brewer.
Super athlete who does well but isn't enough. Chandler is more useful because of his size but I think he, like Brewer, will always tease with his athleticism and leave you wanting more actual results.
The Pau Gasol: Rudy Gay.
Most people probably have Gay pegged as the Rodney White, but I'm going with Rudy as the superstar who doesn't have enough to truly carry a team. He's got go-to guy ability but second fiddle cajones.
The Eddy Curry: LaMarcus Aldridge.
A lot of people could have gone in the soft big man role but LaMarcus seems to be the best pick. Ideally, he'll be a mix of the two big baby Bulls but more likely he'll just be a big baby like Curry.
The Jason Richardson: Tyrus Thomas.
Ty will be the star who doesn't ever really help his team win. While Richardson is a bit stuck between the two swing spots, Ty will forever be leaning towards the small forward while his team hopes he can play more at the four. Unlike Richardson, Thomas will actually see the playoffs but he won't last in them very long. (Then again, Thomas could easily be the Pau Gasol of the group)
The Shane Battier: Brandon Roy.
People who "know" basketball love Battier and Roy but people who "just watch" basketball don't get the fascination. Roy can do it all and will likely have to be the glue that keeps the Blazers together. His team focus will possibly hurt his stats but he'll be a solid role player whom certain people will overrate and others will underappreciate.
The Eddie Griffin: Andrea Bargnani.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm not damning Big Italy to a sub-par career but he needs an attitude check and some muscle to really make it. While Eddie had a bad attitude, Andrea simply doesn't seem to have any. He needs to get the fire that separates Dirk from most other Euro-ballers. If he doesn't, he could end up battling Griffin as the most naturally gifted 10th man in the league.
The Desagana Diop: Saer Sene.
This one is obvious.
The Rodney White: Thabo Sefolosha.
While his name is harder to spell than White's, his game sounds just as soft. The one thing that could help him is that the expectations will be low in Chicago where all he has to do in his first season is be a complement off the pine.
The Joe Johnson: Shawne Williams.
Had Shawne spent another year at Memphis, I think he would have developed into a JJ level super sophomore. He has a good understanding of the game and ability to play many positions. He might be a little more outspoken that Joe but he is an underrated young player who shouldn't have slipped in the draft.
Kedrick Brown: Patrick O'Bryant.
Both of these guys look the part, might play the part in a couple of games in their career but in the end will fail to make much of a dent in the league. O'Bryant will likely hang around longer than Kedrick because of his size but I don't see him helping the Warriors win anything. Like Kedrick, O'Bryant's name will be said with more regret than respect.
The Vlad Rad: JJ Redick.
A one dimensional gunner who could disappoint on the wrong team but suddenly seem like a useful player when put on a squad that can overcome his deficiencies and allow him to do what he is good at.
The Richard Jefferson: Rodney Carney.
Rudy Gay might be a better fit here since, like Jefferson, he's a great supporting player who was drafted and then traded by Houston, but I'm going to go with Rodney Carney. I think he could step in and help A.I. and Webber much like Jefferson helped Kidd and K-Mart. Unfortunately, it seems like A.I. could be traded. If Carney is the focus of offense, he could be in trouble but as a third or fourth option in his rookie year, he should grow into a solid career.
The Troy Murphy: Adam Morrison.
A talented player who puts up solid numbers but is more of a liability than he is worth. While both Murphy and Morrison do the best with their physical abilities, their physical abilities make them better role players in the NBA.
The Steven Hunter: Josh Boone.
Boone will never be anything much but he'll always be good enough to find a roster spot and maybe get traded a couple of times. Josh and Hilton could easily be switched with Hilton equaling Hunter and Boone being Brown.
The Kirk Haston: Steve Novak.
Novak is the highest pick who'll be out of the league before you even get time to forget that he was ever drafted.
The Michael Bradley: Paul Davis.
Talented big men whose talents aren't much use outside of the NCAA.
The Jason Collins: PJ Tucker.
Collins isn't spectacular but he does enough to help his team. Tucker is similar. If the Raptors lose Mo Peterson, Tucker's situation could be like Collins'; not the best option in the world at his position, but the best option on the team and good enough for them to focus on other needs.
The Zach Randolph: Marcus Williams.
He'll shine as a backup. When he gets the chance to start, he'll impress everyone. And then he'll keep being good but never maturing into greatness. A lot of people will regret not taking Marcus a year or two after the draft but as the years pass, people won't mind not having him around. Marcus could be The Jamal Tinsley but I think he'll have a few great years before leveling off.
The Brendan Haywood: James White.
Both guys had moments in college and always will hear that they "should be better" in the pros. Both will stick around the league for some time but never make a name for themselves.
The Joe Forte: Quincy Douby.
He can shoot and score but he has no real position and is very flawed. Much like C's fans with Forte, Kings fans will wonder, "Wait, if we wanted a PG, why didn't we take one of the actual PG's?" The one difference with Douby is that his attitude is better than Joe's. He might be able to stick around the league as a shooting specialist while Forte was too bust smoking doobies and pissing people off to ever build a career.
The Jeryl Sasser: Mardy Collins.
Both are big guards who are defensive minded but are too slow to really make it in the league. Sasser never got minutes in his career and Collins will be hard pressed to break the Knicks rotation.
The Brandon Armstrong: Joel Freeland.
Both guys kind of came out of nowhere to shoot up into the first round. As it turned out, neither of them really belonged in the first round. Then again, Freeland could be The Zach Randolph. I really have no handle on him but I don't trust those damn Brits so he can labeled Brandon.
The Raul Lopez: Sergio Rodriguez.
The once and future Spanish Chocolate, Raul and Rodriguez are both better suited for Europe than the NBA. After a few years, Raul realized this and packed his bags. Sergio might figure this out sooner if he's stuck in Portland for too long.
The Gerald Wallace: Rajon Rondo.
The obvious comparison is Shawne Williams but Shawne's defense isn't as good as Wallace's. For that reason, I'm going with Rajon Rondo. Rondo, like Wallace, left college because he wasn't being used correctly. Wallace was stuck at PF while Rondo was playing off-guard. Both guys came in with low expectations and, if the C's don't deal Delonte or Telfair, were buried on the bench for the beginning of their careers. It will take Rajon a while to grow into an offensive threat but if he does, he could be a very impressive player.
The Samuel Dalembert: Cedric Simmons.
Simmons like Dalembert will start slow, show potential, and then frustrate. All the while, his team and fans will wait for him to work on his offensive game and wish he could be tougher.
The Jamaal Tinsley: Maurice Ager.
Mel Mel the Abuser made himself a lot of fans with his play as a rookie but he never really improved from there. If he gets time, I think Maurice could turn some heads in Dallas but I can't see him ever improving all that much.
The Tony Parker: Kyle Lowry.
Kyle needs to work on his shot but he has the ability to be as good as Mr. Eva Longoria. Like Parker, people will be surprised with how good he turns out.
The Trenton Hassell: Renaldo Balkman.
Small school bred defensive specialists.
The Gilbert Arenas: Randy Foye.
Part of me wanted to make the bold prediction of Shannon Brown but I'll stick with the more obvious Randy Foye. Foye and Arenas are off guards in lead guard bodies who, while not pure at the point, still find a way to make it work. I can't shake the feeling that Foye could be the surprise bust of the draft but for now I'll go with what seems obvious.
The Omar Cook: Darius Washington.
Rondo could EASILY be Cook instead of Wallace. Daniel Gibson is another candidate but he fell into the perfect situation. So I'm going to go with the undrafted Washington.
The Willie Solomon: OK, you know what, I'm going to skip ahead and pass over the guys who basically never made it. Lord knows who Willie Solomon was let alone who the next Willie Solomon will be.
The Terrence Morris: Kosta Perovic.
Morris and Perovic were both rumored to be lotto picks, didn't enter the draft and ended up being second round picks and waiver wire fodder.
The Brian Scalabrine: Hassan Adams.
Like Veal, Adams will be made to look better that he is by playing with Jason Kidd and the rest of the Nets. Someone will be wowed by his stats, sign him, and realize that he's nothing more than a role player.
Mehmet Okur : Shelden Williams & Oleksiy Pecherov.
A solid big man who can put up numbers and be a force at times but isn't going to be more than a third or fourth option on a winning team. I don't know much about Pecherov so I'll stick him with Okur.
The Earl Watson : Daniel Gibson.
A player that will work himself into a solid pro point guard but will never be a starting point guard. (Note: Gibson could easily be the next Jamison Brewer but I have faith in him.)
The Bobby Simmons: Leon Powe.
Powe, like Simmons, should learn on the bench for a couple of years and then rise to the occassion and be a surprise success when given some time. He then will get paid handsomely and, by no fault of his own, people will realize that he isn't worth the contract he signed. A good player but not someone you should invest more than the MLE on.
The Loren Woods: Marcus Vinicius.
Vinicius could be a player but supposedly gets lost and isn't always focused. He also has major flaws on defense. Woods' issues were on offense in the pros but his lack of focus was the same as Marquihos'.
The Jarron Collins: Dee Brown.
Like Collins, Brown might not ever be worth starting but he could easily find himself as a starter on a bad team. Also, they aren't perfect but they have the right stuff to keep them in the league and in a team's rotation for years.
There are few plans in sports worse than telling a GM that he has one year to succeed. It makes even less sense when the team is rebuilding and has young talent that probably needs time to learn the game. Did James Dolan not realize that this is pretty much the same thing that ruined the Knicks before? Scott Layden knew his time was up so he made a risky trade, giving up a lotto pick for the injured Antonio McDyess. It's moves like these that make GM's do insane go-for-broke moves like trading for Vin Baker. Do you really think that if the Knicks are struggling at the midseason point that Zeke won't mortgage the little future he has available to deal in order to get someone he hopes could help immediately?
While Dolan can fire Isiah after the season (although, I do think there is a good chance the Knicks could improve under Isiah), what are the odds that he actually hires a competent general manager? Zeke and Larry Brown may have been in the spotlight this season, but it was Dolan who put them on center stage. If Zeke fails, it will not only be a mark on his record but it also has to push Dolan to Donald Sterling levels in terms of poor ownership. On the bright side, John Nash has got to like his chance of landing another NBA job in a year. It would be nice having him around to keep the Knicks ship on the floor of the Atlantic.
Despite people's assertions that Ainge is the master of the smokescreen, Danny has usually been fairly forthcoming with his picks. He expressed his interest in Banks and Perkins fairly early and showed his hand on Robert Swift as well as Al Jefferson fairly early. While I think it would be a major mistake to pass on Rudy Gay, Danny has passed on an uber-athlete for a player that he felt was a bigger need (Big Al over Josh Smith). Right now, it's looking like Marcus Williams is the most likely option. I really want Rudy but wouldn't be stunned if, like Andy Katz said, we passed on him to take his UConn teammate Williams.
Unbelievably and undoubtably unwittingly, Chad Ford has admitted that he has no idea what is going on in the new NBA draft. He claims that nobody has a lock on the draft and that there are various scenarios that could play out. He then questions whether the reader would question his assertion that he is completely ignorant and states, "Don't believe me? Here are some scenarios that could play out on draft night." He then lists seven different scenarios. It should be noted, only two of those scenarios don't incluide the promise to which he's pinning his waning credibility, the Atlanta Hawks taking Shelden Williams.
For the record (or records as it is), Chad Ford says the Celtics could be drafting Rudy Gay or Marcus Williams or Rajon Rondo or Patrick O'Bryant or LaMarcus Aldridge or Randy Foye. While Rudy Gay is who he has us getting in his "official mock draft", Marcus Williams appears at #7 in two of Ford's scenarios. Oh, and if you go over to Celticsblog.com you'll see that Chad Ford dropped the names Cedric Simmons and Ronnie Brewer to the moderator Jeff. So basically, the Celtics might take one of about ten guys in the draft.
This, my friends, is the type of Insider information that only the world's leading sports network can deliver.
So where are the C's? : The Celtics are pretty good on this one. Pierce is very much like Wade in his ability to drive and get to the line and West is solid enough at finding a lane now and then. Also, besides Raef, none of our big men spend most of their day out on the perimeter. The person who needs to learn this lesson the most is Gerald Green, who could easily devolve into a jumpshooter and not take advantage of his quickness.
2) You don't need a field general to win, but it's going to be ugly: One of the main problems the Mavs had was that they had nobody on their team to set up their offense. Every time down it looked like they had no clue what was going on. Terry was tossing up threes, Dirk was wandering around and unable to get free, Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels created offense out of necessity rather than any sort of plan. Devin Harris wasn't ready and the Mavs struggled because their best option at the point began to believe that he was the best option for the shot. In the two wins, Terry had 33 shots and 10 assists. In the four losses? 11 assists and 80 shots.
The Core: Martell Webster
Webster is a good young talent and his trade value probably isn't high enough right now to get equal value. One of the better moves the Blazers could make would be to match up Webster with Gerald Green but I don't support our dealing Gerald so that deal should never happen.
The Needs: Everything
Cap Space: They have none.
Possible 2006/7 Lineup: Skinner, Taylor, Jefferson, Webster, Blake with Shelden, Bargnani, Outlaw, Dixon, Jack, Malik Rose, Khrypa and whoever they get at #30 and #31
Randy Foye? The critics immediate cry would be that he isn't a true PG. In fact, his teammate Kyle Lowry is more of a pure PG. Those who like Foye (Foye Toys?) will immediately point out that, sticking to the 2001 comparison, the issues people levy against Foye were the same that they levied against Arenas. While Foye might not be an ideal PG, he fits two of the most important factors which allow players to overcome this: he's got a great attitude and is a strong leader. If you don't mind not having a true PG, then Randy is likely your first choice and a reasonable selection at #7.
Marcus Williams? The best pure point guard right now. "Right now" being the operative term because he the Jamaal Tinsley of the draft; what you see is what you get. He has a lower ceiling than many of the other prospects but the fact remains that his current ceiling is something many of these other guys may never reach. He would be the sure thing point guard of the draft (even moreso than Foye) if it weren't for questions about his attitude. He had a spotty record when it came to off-the-court decision making (the laptop fencing, the inability to stay academically eligible) and his workouts so far have been underwhelming. While the current workouts don't highlight his strengths, he hasn't helped himself by showing up out of shape. If the character issues don't bother you, Marcus is the most likely to help from day one, which is something Danny, and many Celtics fans, would love to see out of their draft pick.
Ronnie Brewer? Ronnie's not a point guard. He can handle the position but he's a Dee Brown type point man; someone you can be handle the position but isn't going to stop anyone in the front office from looking for a real PG.
Rajon Rondo? With his elite athleticism and pure point guard skills, Rondo has the highest ceiling of any PG in the draft. He could easily become a Tony Parker type PG. The problem, unfortunately, is that he also could be Omar Cook. Rondo is a roll of the dice. His playmaking skills are undervalued but that's because they are underdevloped. Kentucky used his more as a slasher, almost a two guard, rather than letting him run the show. He is a true pass-first point guard which is good but he's also a pass-second point guard too because his jumper is beyond lacking. Some people have said he struggles with his shot because of his large hands but that is more of a problem than an excuse because it means that his shot is a physical issue and not something that he can easily fix. Rondo is a reach at seven but would make a decent investment if we trade down. He is a couple years away from consistent minutes but when he finally gets those minutes, it could be special.
Sergio Rodriguez? The Spanish Magician isn't the athlete that Rondo is but is a more complete offensive players. The other end of the floor isn't so kind to him though. Sergio makes Steve Nash look competent on the defensive end and would likely need a year to work on his defense before he could really get minutes. While some people compare his game to Nash or Jason Williams, he could also be Sasha Vujacic or better shooting Doug Gottlieb. Sergio would be another candidate at around #15 but he also isn't someone who is going to help out any time soon.
Sleepers? Are there any second round picks who could surprise and become stars in this draft? Daniel Gibson was a supposed top 3 choice heading into the college season but his selfish and uninspiring play now has him as a second rounder. His decision making was horrific at times. The kid definitely can play the game but he needs a complete on-court attitude adjustment if he wants to make the NBA. Darius Washington is another super-athlete with point guard skills who seems a little too in love with either his own game or the sound of the ball hitting the floor. Like Gibson, Washington dribbles entirely too much and needs to realize his role in the offense. A lot of his weakness are things he just needs to work on but that always prompts the question, why the heck isn't he working on them? Coming into workouts too heavy hasn't exactly helped ease people's anxieties that he might be a player that never truly gets it. Will Blalock and Dee Brown are two seniors who could step in off the bench this season for someone. I'm not sure either will ever become a starter in the league but they both have the ability to stick in the league and be great contributors.
With the #7 we most certainly can take someone who could help us at the point. Rondo and Rodriguez are two gambles that we may want to look at if we trade down while Williams and Foye are the two "safest" picks. That being said, the biggest assist Foye and Williams could give the Celtics is if they go in the top six as that would allow one of the top prospects in the draft to fall to us.