Can Danny?

Well, Toronto's done three things right so far. They've hired Bryan Colangelo, won the lottery and announced that they are changing their uniforms. While they're at it, they should change the name but let's not get ahead of ourselves. While I did like the Raptor red, I think losing the purple and giving the team a new look could be a step in the right direction.

The Core: Chris Bosh

Honestly, everyone else can be had. While Charlie Villenueva might have proved his doubters wrong, he can't escape the fact that he is best suited for the 4 which is Bosh's domain. Colangelo could always go small ball and play Charlie and Bosh together but my guess is that Charlie is worth more on the market than on the court right now.

The Needs: Pretty much everything. They have a young prospect in Roko Ukic in Europe but waiting on him probably isn't the best route since nobody knows when he's coming over or how good he'll be when he does. The most pressing need is a legit center and a point guard to replace Mike James, who is 90% out the door.

The Bait: If there's one thing the Raptors have plenty of, it's trade bait. Villain, Mo Peterson, and a bevy of short mid-level contracts.

Cap Space: 15 million, assuming only Mike James opts out of his deal.

So where do they go from here?

Trade The most obvious deal would be Charlie for Magloire, Mo Williams, and Ersan Ilyasova. Magloire might actually stay since he's from Toronto and Mo would be the starting PG. A trade with Seattle could work but it sounds like Seattle's asking price for Ridnour might be a bit too much right now for a deal of Luke and the #10 to work. Another deal would be Villenueva would be to Chicago for Ben Gordon. Colangelo gets his point guard and the Bulls get a low post scoring opton. If 6'5 Ukic comes over, he could be a great complement to Gordon in the backcourt. Depending on the draft, the Raptors either take the Bucks deal or the Chicago deal.
If the Hornets are looking for veteran guards (and hoping to dump JR Smith and Arvydas Macijauskas both of whom were in Byron Scott's doghouse), the Raptors should offer up Morris Peterson for the two.
They should hold onto Alvin and Eric Williams until the trade deadline to see if there isn't any talent that couldn't be had for some expiring deal.

Draft The pick is hard to gauge. Unless someone falls in love with Aldridge or Bargnani, I can't see many teams giving up a ton to move up. Most offers will likely be deemed either too much for the other team (Telfair and the 4, Green and the 7) or not enough for the Raptors (JR Smith, the 12 and 15, Pietrus and the 9). While people seem to love Bargnani, he doesn't fit with Bosh since they are both PF's. This also eliminates Ty Thomas. In my opinion, it comes down to Rudy Gay vs. LaMarcus Aldrige. Both have knocks against them that they are soft but I'm going to go with the guy I had pegged at #1 from the beginning, Rudy Gay. Of course, Colangelo could completely alter the face of the team and deal Bosh for a top pick to get Bargnani (and build a possible Marion/Nowitzki like tandem) but I think that's a little much for the first few months on the job.

Free Agency This is a weak free agent class and Toronto would be best served saving their room. Al Harrington would be an interesting small forward to team with Bosh and Aldridge but his asking price could be more than he's worth, especially if he has to come to Toronto. Smaller level guys like Matt Harpring, Jared Jeffries, Fred Jones, etc might be better to fill out the bench. The former two are trickier signings since they are restricted FA's but they are the level of guy (low price wih potential) that the Rapz would be best pursuing.

Possible 2006/7 Lineup: Mo Williams, JR Smith, Rudy Gay, Chris Bosh, Jamaal Magloire with Ukic, Arvydas Macijauskas, A & E.Williams, Araujo, J. Graham
The bench is weak but that lineup doesn't include their second round pick and any role players that they could pick up via free agency.

Can they get there from here? The Raptors most certainly could buid a team that could make a push for the playoffs in a couple years and then bigger things after that. Jerry Colangelo has a ton of assets to play with and has never been afraid to overpay for something he wants, so he could easily disregard the youthful angle I've chosen and try to add talent to win now. Only time will tell, but in time I believe the Raptors will be back to the top of the Eastern Conference in a few years.

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

It's never too early to plan for the summer and this year the Celtics, once again, have too many young faces for the roster spaces in the Las Vegas Summer league. The NBA only allows five NBA players on a summer league team which means that one of our eager eight is going to have to sit. The options are: Kendrick Perkins, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Al Jefferson, Dwayne Jones, Gerald Green, Orien Greene and Ryan Gomes.

The Inked Ins:
For me, Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes and Tony Allen should all be signed in in ink right now. No penciling them in, they need to be in the summer league. Green clearly needs playing time in any situation. Gomes has shown his ability to play the four but I think he could benefit from a summer holding down the SF position. Meanwhile, Tony needs to work on his outside shot in game situations and also could work in at the point since it seems like Doc thinks he might be able to get spot minutes there.

The Obvious Out:
Defense is Kendrick Perkins' game and that is something rarely seen in the summer. Also, with his shoulder acting up, I think it would be better to give him some rest rather than rushing him into the exhibition games.

The Confidence Men:
This section varies. First, there's Al the Ankle. If Jefferson's joints are still questionable by the time summer roles around, I'd give his trip to Vegas some serious second thoughts. I'd rather not put him in jeopardy of another injury for some summer league games. While we have to be confident with Al's health, we might already be confident enough in the game of Delonte the Dimedropper. While Delonte could definitely use the practice on his handle and defense, he needs the summer league less than anyone. He's shown what he can do and there's not much else to prove. One thing that could be beneficial would be making him the captain of the team which could help him work on his leadership abilities and force him to really control the game while running the show. Finally there's Dwayne and Orien. They don't get silly nicknames because we don't know if we want to spend that much time on players that won't be on the roster next season. If we draft a PG, I'd be stunned if Orien had a roster spot. If we draft a big man, Dwayne's likely the odd man out. Of course, if Rudy Gay falls or we take Rodney Carney, then all bets are off.

The Verdict?: Right now, I'd say: Green, Gomes, Allen, Big Al, Orien/Jones (and if we draft a SF, then we stick with Greene).

As for the rest of the roster, it's way to early to tell who'll be drafted and who'll be left out but at first look, I'd invite these five to join our five (plus our draft choice):
Chris Quinn (Notre Dame), Kenny Adeleke (Hartford), Viktor Keirou (Russia), Marcus Haislip, Brandon Williams. (Not sure how it works inviting vets but Haislip has been overseas while Williams was in the NBDL)

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Whlie I'm not a fan of the instant gratification thinking that many Celtics fans hold, it is still something that needs to be addressed. Is trying to win now a viable option? Can the deals make sense? What way works best? If we had to build a team to win now, here's what I'd look to do.

Hold onto Gerald Green: First and foremost, we do not deal a potential star. The Celtics have enough other options to make deals and moving Green would be another in the long list of regrets that the Celtics have compiled ever since Chris Wallace first came aboard. Unless you can get a bonafide, healthy superstar for Raef and Green, I wouldn't move him.

Forget about: K-Mart, Boozer, KG, Jermaine O'Neal, Baron: We would have to give up too much to get KG and O'Neal (if we even have a chance to get them at all), and the rest of those guys don't help enough for what they are paid. K-Mart's a headcase, Boozer is solid but vastly overpaid and Baron is injury-prone and tends to monopolize the ball which is exactly why we had to deal Ricky. To use him most effectively, we'd have to move Paul to the 3 and bring Delonte as a complement at the two ala David Wesley back in Baron's days in New Orleans. Baron is the most likely of the bunch but I just dont see him being the best option.

Deal Wally, Veal and the #7 for Lamar Odom, Luke Walton and the #26 pick: Wally and #7 for Odom and the #26 are the bast components of this deal and what else goes in is definitely open for debate. In my opinon, Odom would be perfect for the Celtics. He is a guy that can run the offense from the post and free up Paul to focus on scoring. Odom in Boston would be like Odom in Miami where he put up 18/10/4. I think a Lamar/Pierce combination could remind a lot of people of the Antoine/Pierce combo, save for the fact that Lamar isn't in love with the three point line. As for the picks, this draft is so all over the place that, like 2001, the guys who goes at #26 - 30 could be as good or better than the players who go #7 to #10.

Deal Big Al and Delonte West for Josh Smith and Salim Stoudamire: If there is a way to work this without dealing Delonte, I'd be for it. I just don't know if Gomes or a future pick along with Jefferson would be enough to get Josh. I've promoted Josh Smith ad nauseum but I think this move is perfect for the C's. Smith's defense is very good and he would be a perfect complement to Pierce and Odom. He also stepped up his game in the second half of the season (15/7/4 with a steal and 3 blocks per game) showing that he's more than ready to take the third year leap and start contributing in 2006. While Salim is no Delonte, his strength is exactly what we need. With the offense running through Odom, Salim's lack of true point abilities would be covered up and his three point stroke would be deadly to any team trying to double team the first three options of Pierce, Odom, and Smith. West could also work in the point spot with Odom in town but I'd be willing to move him if it meant getting J-Smooth.

Tony Allen for Mo Williams: Mo solidies the point guard position. The Bucks have been looking for a wing defender which is what Tony Allen specializes in. I'd be willing to toss in a future lotto protected pick in this deal but would hold off unless we could agree to a long term, mid-level extension with Williams before we made the deal. He's a free agent at the end of the season. I'd explore other options for PG but I'm not sure what we'd legitimately be able to ask for when offering Raef, Dickau, Tony, Gomes and/or future picks.

Hold onto Raef: While dealing Raef seems like a no-brainer for the Celtics, it's also a no-brainer that other teams shouldn't trade for him. We'd either need to package Raef with Gerald for a questionable veteran or we'd have to deal him for a couple of guys with longer contracts (Richardson/James, Jaric/Hassell, etc.) Either way, the deals don't make sense, especially when Raef can work as a decent complement in the middle to Odom. In a year, his value should be better since his contract is a year shorter. We're not going to get anyone better than him as a big man off the bench so we might as well hold on for another year.

Draft the best player available at 26: Kyle Lowry, Shawne Williams, Marcus Vinicius, PJ Tucker, James White, whoever.

Use the LLE on Aaron Williams: A solid defensive minded big man who can fill the backup four and five spots.

Use the MLE on Matt Harpring: Harpring adds toughness and defense off the bench. I highly doubt we'll be able to lure most of the big names on the market but I think Matt could be someone we'd have a legitimate shot at signing.

Figure out who the next coach will be. : And if that coach isn't available right now, then keep Doc around. In my opinon, the only thing worse than keeping Doc is bringing in another stop-gap coach. I'd even be willing to go two more years of Doc if it meant we could bring in Stan Van Gundy when his contract with the Heat was done in 2008.

The Lineup:
PG: Mo Williams/Salim Stoudamire/Dan Dickau
SG: Paul Pierce/Matt Harpring/Gerald Green
SF: Josh Smith/Luke Walton
PF: Lamar Odom/Ryan Gomes
C: Kendrick Perkins/Raef Lafrentz/Aaron Williams
(add in Dwayne Jones or Orien Greene and whoever we take at #26)

I think this lineup would get us into the playoffs next season. With a number of draft picks owed to us and Raef's and Dickau's more manageable contract, we could add someoen else next offseason to build on the success of 2006.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Kevin Garnett was not supposed to be the kid that changed the game. Clearly, 1995 wasn't going to be the year a player made the leap from prep to the pros. If the much-hyped Felipe Lopez opted for college the year before, who was Garnett to think he didn't need to head to Michigan? Besides, sports reporters across the nation were already setting up Schea Cotton, one year behind KG, as The One.
Funny how things work out. While KG declared for the draft and has become one of the premiere players in the NBA, fellow prodigies Lopez and Cotton flamed out in college. Cotton never really made it to the NBA while Lopez struggled to hang on as a journeyman.

Regardless of who changed the game, the fact remained that the era between 1995 and 2005 will always be known as the Decade of The Prodigy. David Stern put the kibosh on the straight-from-high-school crowd by adding an age limit in the latest collective bargaining agreement and while supporters like to point out that the move will help high schoolers, will it really? How much did coming out early hurt the young players?

The simple answer is that it didn't. Unscrupulous agents were able to convince a few players like Korleone Young and Ousmanne Cisse that their stock was much higher than it truly was but the bottom line is that high schoolers picked in the first round were as, if not more, successful than their collegiate counterparts. (And let's be honest, neither Cisse or Young, undersized PF's really had much of a shot at making the league, college or no college.) While people like to point at the disappointing 2001 class as a sign of too young, too soon, it should be pointed out that seven collegians from the first round of that draft are already out of the league. In the ten years of high schoolers, only one is currently not in the NBA or NBDL: the troubled Leon Smith. True, Kwame, Curry, Chandler, Diop might not be franchise players but are they worse off than their classmates from the 2001 McDonalds All-American game: Carlos Hurt, Chris Thomas, Maurice Williams, Rashaad Carruth, Dajuan Wagner, Julius Hodge, Anthony Richardson, James White, David Harrison, Terrance Ford, Aaron Miles, Cedric Bozeman, Daniel Ewing, Kelvin Torbert, Josh Childress, Jawad Williams, David Lee, Rick Rickert, Wayne Simien.

In 2001, David Stern weighed in on the high school movement and gave a very telling quote:

"I believe that kids are now bouncing the ball in school yards saying, 'Just get to be 17 and that's where I'm going,'" Stern said. "The result of that is bad policy. It's bad for the kid's development, bad for the college game, bad for the business of the NBA."

As I've said before, "bad for the kid's development" is pure propaganda. If anything, NBA teams are more interested in a kid's long term development than colleges. NBA teams are hoping to draft someone who will be with them for a career while colleges are only interested in winning games in the next four years. Gerald Wallace had to leave Alabama because he knew that his NBA position was SF but his coach Mark Gottfriend wanted him to fill the team's need a PF. Instead of playing out of position for three more years or transferring (and having to sit out a year and then hoping his new coach won't recruit a SF and try to move him to PF again), Wallace left after one year and has become a great young prospect and one of the better defensive players in the NBA. College thinks about the program while NBA develops programs to help the kids. Because of limited practice time in NCAA's, the NBA is a much better place to develop. How many colleges can hire Clifford Ray or monitor offseason workouts for their young big men?

Now "bad for the college game" is 100% true. The better talent, the better the college game. The one thing it will change is the wide-open NCAA tournament climate that has prevailed the last few years. The better prospects will go to the better schools strengthening the powerhouses and likely making opening weekend upsets a little more scarce. Personally, I feel like it's somewhat unfair to force kids to play for "free" in the NCAA's, an organization that even limits the part-time work that players can take part in. For many players, like Memphis' Shawne Williams, this simply isn't an option. For these hardship players, the NBA is just delaying the inevitable. Williams is entering the NBA this year, even though he didn't exactly wow scouts with his play this season, because he needs to support his family and it doesn't make any sense whatsoever to pass up a chance at guaranteed contract worth millions, especially when there's no guarantees that the same contract will be waiting for him if he stays in school. There are as many players who stayed in college too long as there are those that came out too early. It should be very interesting to see if more players follow his lead. Will players now stay in college longer or will the kids who were coming out of high school just come out after their freshman year? How long the Class of '06 stays in school? While only three freshman entered this years draft, that could be attributed to the great Age Limit exodus to the draft of the last year's high school seniors. Will guys like Durant, Oden, Wright, and Young stay in school or will this move just increase the amount of one-and-done's in the draft?

In the end, it's all about money. Notice that in Stern's quote, he didn't say that the high schoolers were bad for the NBA. He couldn't. He knows that he can't really argue that KG, Kobe, T-Mac, Jermaine O'Neal, Amare and Lebron are bad for the NBA. He said it was bad for "the business of the NBA". This is 100% true, the NBA was having to pay money for potential and developing players . Rather than having the NCAA take care of the development, the NBA now has to foot the bill for their young players. A player like DeSagana Diop or Kendrick Perkins took/will likely take their entire rookie deals to become players and even then, there's really no telling how good they'll finally end up. This is how guys like Jonathon Bender and Darius Miles end up getting big money contracts even though they haven't really shown anything on the court. Instead of trying to decide whether or not to draft these players, NBA teams were forced to decide how much they'd be willing to pay to keep them around. In the NBA pre-KG, freshman and sophomores usually only came out if they had proved that they were ready for the game. While the NBA would love to get back to those days, the fact is that the draft is a game of potential now. And if anyone is to blame for that, it is the NBA for expanding the league so that rosters are so thin that it almost seems like a waste not to hold a spot or two for a young project.
Another issue is the fact that high schoolers will be able to sign at least two full max contracts in their career and could manage to sign three. Paul Pierce entered the league after three years at Kansas. He is looking to extend his contract and already people are questioning how much he should really get since he will be 30 or 31 when that contract (his second max deal) will start. Compare that to Kobe who will be 32 when his second max contract ends. A study showed that forcing someone like Lebron James to go to college for two years could cost him upwards of 100 million dollars. God forbid he get injured while in college ala Randy Livingston, a top prospect that blew out both of his knees at LSU. While it saves the NBA money, to tell someone like Lebron that he has to play for free in the NCAA's or play for peanuts in the NBDL (which has a lower age limit) is patently unfair.

As for this draft, nothing has been improved. The draft pool is light at the top. The best "can't miss" prospect is heading to Ohio State and none of the collegiate prospects look like guys who can step and make a major difference next season, be it freshman Ty Thomas, sophomores LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay, junior Adam Morrison or even seniors Brandon Roy or Rodney Carney. There are still prospects skating by on potential ala Rajon Rondo, Cedric Simmons, and Patrick O'Bryant. But don't worry, the "business of the NBA" is better off today then it was yesterday.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Of course, I again have to start by saying this is a take on what I think teams SHOULD do and not what will happen. Because of this reason, there are an inordinate amount of trades in my mock. This year is strange as there are a number of team in the high lottery (Toronto, Minnesota, Boston, Houston, Chicago) that are looking for a veteran rather than a prospect.

That being said, let's start with a predraft trade, shall we? Chicago, Seattle, and Toronto start the party off with a seven player, three pick deal. Toronto gets Luol Deng and Luke Ridnour, Chicago gets Ray Allen, Charlie Villenueva. and the #10 pick in the draft. Seattle gets Ben Gordon, Joey Graham, #2, and #16 draft pick. (Note: All three teams are under the cap so the salaries don't have to match exactly. Also tweaks could be made: Nocioni for Deng, Seattle dumps Fortson, etc.) Chicago adds a superstar, a low post offensive threat and hold onto a pick, Seattle rebuilds with youth with two young players and two picks, the Raptors add players that fit Colangelo's system.

And now onto the draft

1: Toronto: There are a lot of deals that Toronto could make with this pick as the Blazers, Hawks, and Golden St. could all make intriguing offers. Now on of those team might make an offer that is too good to refuse, but realistically I think the Raptors might be best suited by just grabbing Chris Bosh's friend LaMarcus Aldridge. Because Bosh and Aldridge as so athletic, the Raptors could essentially play small ball style but with two legitimate big men running alongside Deng, Mo P., and Ridnour.

2: Seattle: With Rashard Lewis likely on the block (and if not on the block, likely on the free agent market when he opts out of his contract after next season), the Sonics bring in a local prospect, Adam Morrison to help draw the fans. The Sonics build with youth with: Gordon, Graham, Mickael Gelabale, Damien Wilkins, Chris Wilcox, Johan Petro, and Robert Swift.

3: Charlotte: While Bernie Bickerstaff has recently supported Rudy Gay, saying the young UConn prospect is getting a bad rap, I think Brandon Roy fits in better with the pieces that the 'Cats currently have in place. If Bernie believes Okafor and May's injury problems will continue, he might opt for another big man but I think the best choice would be the senior guard from Washington, a player who fits right in to the Bobcats starting lineup and is a nice complement to both Ray Felton and Gerald Wallace.

4. Portland: Try as they might, the Blazers just can't move up in the draft. As it turns out, they don't have to. Reports might say that John Nash is interested in Andrea Bargnani but I think it would be better to look to just dump dingbat Darius Miles and add Rudy Gay as a running mate to Telfair, Webster, and Randolph. If things go well, the Blazers will be improved yet terrible again next season, giving them a shot at a premier big man in the 2007 draft.

5. Atlanta: Another team that tried to move up and didn't need to, the Hawks add another versatile big man in Andrea Bargnani who looks to be a perfect complement to the ever-improving Josh Smith. A Johnson/Smith/Bargnani trio could be a load to deal with in a few years. As for their needs at PG, Bargnani is too good of a prospect to pass up in favor of any of the questionable lead guards in this draft. If the pick isn't Bargnani, it would likely be defensive-minded Ty Thomas. The Hawks may part with the pick is a blockbuster for a big name superstar but for now, I think the Hawks are better off adding to their arsenal of young players. They can go after a PG (Claxton, Banks, James) in the free agent market.

6. Minnesota: The ideal move for the Wolves would be to deal the pick along with two of their big contracts in hopes of opening up cap space. If they could dump Blount and Hassell for expiring deals, it opens up ten million in cap space. That combined with Ricky Davis would open up the chance at a max contract in a sign-and-trade. The one issue, of course, is who in their right mind would want any of Kevin McHale's bad decisions? No team under the cap is interested in a long term mediocre player and the Wolves are over the cap so they can't make a player for pick deal. Would they be willing to make deals for Mo Williams/Jamaal Magloire or Zydrunas Ilgauskas? They'd probably have to add McCants to make either deal work, which would be giving up too much. Making things even harder is the fact that most of the players that are on the block are PF's which is KG's best position. One four who could work with KG is Antawn Jamison, but would Washington be willing to take Blount and Griffin if it meant getting Ty Thomas? There's always the Knicks but would Isiah be willing to deal Francis for some smaller names and Thomas? I'm not sure what deal will happen but odds are the Wolves will take the best bargaining chip available and take Tyrus Thomas and hope to figure out a deal.

7. Boston: The Celtics will take the best player available. That's the easy part. Who the best player available is exactly is the difficult part. Do we go big to backup their young, fragile big men or do we fill the PG role with Randy Foye or Marcus Williams. There's been talk amongst fans of a Telfair, Ratliff for Lafrentz, #7 deal but I'm not a big fan of Bassy's. Right now, and this is certain to change, I say go for the best pure PG in the draft, and that's Marcus Williams. He's got red flags galore but I see him being, at the very least, a healthy Jamaal Tinsley type player.

8. Houston: While point guard is a concern, I think the absolute hole at the small forward spot is a more pressing concern. While Randy Foye and Ronnie Brewer could get some looks, I think the obvious choice here is Rodney Carney who should serve nicely as an perimeter outlet on offense making people pay for doubling T-Mac or Yao.

9. Golden St.: The Warriors need to make a trade because they have too much at every position besides center to be as bad as they are. Very few teams can start a lineup of top ten picks (Davis, Richardson, Dunleavy, Diogu, Foyle) and still be bad enough to get a top ten pick. But since they seem to have a need at center, they might as well take the big man du jour and grab Patrick O'Bryant.

10. Chicago: The Bulls moved up from 16 in their deal with Toronto/Seattle to add another big man to back up Tyson Chandler. With O'Bryant gone, their choice is between Tiago Splitter and Cedric Simmons. It's a tough decision but for now I see them taking the defensive center from NC State Cedric Simmons.

11. Orlando: The one thing this team could really use is a dead-eye shooter at the two guard. Sounds like a job for J.J. Redick. One of the unknown foreigners like Thabo Sefolosha or Marcus Vinicius could work their way up the charts but right now I think this is the perfect situation for Redick and the Magic.

12. LA Clippers: Come on, we couldn't have THAT many picks go by without a deal. The Clippers have been looking to deal Corey Maggette for a draft pick in order to clear up cap space so they can resign Sam Cassell and Vlad Rad. Maggs fits the Hornets well and his athleticism would work very well with Chris Paul running the point. The Clippers, not looking to add salary right now, take Tiago Splitter who'll likely stay overseas this season.

13. Philadelphia: The Sixers have to figure out whether they are building for the future with this pick or if they are looking for the best complement to A.I. Shelden Williams could signal life after Webber but I think the more likely pick is the Aaron McKie replacement Mardy Collins who would work as a nice complement to the A.I.'s. If Collins' workouts don't improve, however, he could find himself slipping in the draft.

14. Utah: They have a hole at the shooting guard spot but they are also looking to move Carlos Boozer. While Ronnie Brewer is an intriguing option, they can replace their hard working Duke PF with another by getting Shelden Williams

15. New Orleans: There are a number of interesting prospect available at this pick for the Hornets but since they were able to get a known commodity with their first pick, they can afford to gamble on a project with great upside with the second. Shawne Williams is an option, but they are better off reaching for a potential defensive monster in the middle, Saer Sene

16. Seattle: Well they traded for a PG with a ton of SG skills so it makes sense to grab a SG with a ton of PG skills. The all-around abilities of Ronnie Brewer makes him a good fit for the young Sonics. 17. Indiana: The Pacers are a tough team to peg. Can they depend on Jamaal Tinsley, Anthony Johnson and Sarunas Jasikevicius at the point? Can they afford not to with all the money those guys make? Will they resign Fred Jones and trade Stephen Jackson? Who backs up Jermaine O'Neal if Pollard leaves? Are they looking for an upgrade at center? I think a skilled big man is going to be the shot and I'm thinking Larry Bird might not be so bad off reaching for Paul Davis at this spot.

18. Washington: Since they have Arenas, they don't need Foye. They could use a big man but is Hilton Armstrong really the answer? Maurice Ager could fit but he also could be another Jarvis Hayes. When it comes down to it, the Wizards need a big man the most so they go with Hilton Armstrong

19. Sacramento: They could use a backup PG but the decision is between a change of pace pass-first guy like Rajon Rondo or a scoring guard like Foye. I think the Kings will go for the best player to help them next season, and that would be Randy Foye.

20. New York: The Knicks were excited to see Foye drop but he didn't make it to them. I can only imagine how happy Isiah would have been to pick up another scoring PG. Most of his other time will probably be spent trying to deal Mo Taylor and Quentin Richardson or Jalen Rose for guys like Kenyon Martin or Carlos Boozer. Regardless, Isiah will take the best man available and that's Maurice Ager

21. Phoenix: Small ball is fun and all but the Suns need some big men. They go after Josh Boone

22/23. New Jersey: None of the big men around are going to help the Nets all that much so they go with the foreign route that netted them Nenad Krstic a few years back. They grab Thabo Sefalosha and Sergio Rodriguez

24. Memphis: The Grizz probably hoped to grab the Spanish Jason Williams in Rodriguez but they missed out leaving them to find their future PG. Word out of the Grizz camp is that they are looking for combo guards so the best option is likely Sergio's fellow Spaniard: Rudy Fernandez.

25. Cleveland: If the Cavs resign Flip Murray, they may opt to go for a big man here. But the thing they could use the most is a point guard who can knock down the trey, the closest thing to that still around is Quincy Douby.

26. LA Lakers: One thing Mitch Kupchak is not afraid to do is roll the dice on the future, even if it means passing up on people who could help in the present. He should repeat his project to promise performance of last year (taking Andrew Bynum) and take Shawne Williams.

27. Phoenix: But no, small ball really is fun though and so are foreign players. The Suns grab Marcus Vinicius in the second round. They could go with Oleksiy Pecherov or someone else who sounds like an assassin hired to kill Jack Bauer but for now we'll go with Marcus.

28. Dallas: If they don't think they can keep Jason Terry they might go for Jordan Farmar or Kyle Lowry here but what I think this team could use is more toughness so they grab local guy PJ Tucker from UT.

29. New York: They could always use a big man so they'll take whomever impresses them more: Paul Milsap or Alexander Johnson

30: Blazers: They'll probably trade this to a team that is looking to grab one of the remaining PG's (Lowry, Rondo, and Farmar) but if they keep it, they'll probably grab a Euro to keep overseas, be it Rudy Fernandez or Oleksiy Pecherov

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:49 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)

With the draft lottery approaching, could finally regain the luck that's eluded them for the past two decades?  If there ever was a year, it would be 2006.  Not just because we have our best pick in a while but also because in the last two decades, the six has been a good year for draft day moves.  We got lucky in 1986 and got the #2 pick (which then turned out to be tragically unlucky) and in 1996 M.L. Carr made the absolute steal of moving Samaki Walker and Eric Montross for Antoine Walker and a future pick.  OK, admittedly our luck after those moves didn't work (Bias passed away, the pick we got from Dallas was Ron Mercer who was a bust) so we haven't exactly made the most out of our luck but I'd still like to think that Lady Luck will smile down on us and perhaps we'll hit the lottery and grab a top three pick in this year's draft.

 

Posted by SoulHonky at 11:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Time and again during these playoffs we hear about the NBA rebirth or how we are heading into a new generation of NBA greats. While I agree that the new era is here (and only getting better as the high schoolers from the past two drafts start to step up), one has to wonder what in the world happened to the generation between Michael, Hakeem, Robinson and Lebron, Wade, Arenas?

Wallets over Winning
The most obvious change has been the salary cap and I don't think people really acknowledge how important that has been. The leader of the Ego Brigade in the 90's was Derrick Coleman who started acting like a diva almost as soon as he came into the league. The Nets became the poster boys of problem children once they added Kenny Anderson but these guys weren't alone. Jerry Stackhouse and Rasheed Wallace were instant issues for their teams and Glenn Robinson was talking about a hundred million dollar deal before he was even drafted. In the 90's, as soon as players declared for the draft they started angling for more money. Once in the league, their focus was on getting one good season as they were always eyeing their next big payday and trying to get out from under whatever teammate was keeping them from paydirt. It got so bad that in '95, Sports Illustrated ran a cover with Coleman's face and the simple title, "Waaaaaah". The green paper chase fed egos which devoured the idea of team play. While ego has always been a problem, in the past it was usually an issue of guys wanting to get off of losing teams. The 90's generation hated life on winning teams. The Triple J ranch split up, reportedly over Toni Braxton. Kobe and Francis forcing trades on their draft day. Shaq and Kobe's rivalry was greater than their competition against their actual rivals. Stephon Marbury forced his way out of Minny and a pairing with KG. Vince Carter and Baron Davis both tanked so they could get traded, which was odd because it was their own constant injuries that were hampering the teams the most. The Generation X of the NBA missed the spot completely and put off most casual fans with their demands.

Injuries and the Albatross
While the salary cap did help out in curtailing the whining about contracts to some degree, it also created a new beast on the NBA landscape: the cap albatross. While big salary guys were a nuisance before, they became downright deadly in the cap era. Making matters worse, the mid-90's strike spelled doon for franchise guys like Vin Baker and Shawn Kemp as they fell apart completely on the short time off. Those two became infamous for being wastes of cap space but they were hardly alone. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to find a decade in which more stars collapsed due to injuries: Larry Johnson, Jamal Mashburn, Marcus Camby, Alonzo Mourning, Allan Houston, Grant Hill, Tom Gugliotta, Antonio McDyess, Penny Hardaway, Keith Van Horn, Tracy McGrady. It seemed like as soon as a team was about to make the jump to true contender, one of their main players got hurt or weren't resigned in fear that they would become a cap albatross (Penny/LJ/Nash) While the cap helped clean up the aura of greed that had infected the NBA, GM's and owners still weren't very cap savvy and had trouble building consistent teams.

Marketability and The End of the Sneaker Wars
Tim Duncan? Too quiet. Allen Iverson? Too controversial. Shaq? Well, as Wilt said, nobody roots for Goliath. When it came to marketable stars, the 90's didn't have many. Jason Kidd seemed to be constantly surrounded by bad press, be it the messy breakup in Dallas or the spousal abuse charges in New Jersey. Grant Hill wasn't healthy long enough to market. Lamar Odom never seemed to be reliable enough to build a major marketing push around. Either players were too vanilla (Duncan, Ray Allen, Elton Brand), too divisive (AI, Marbury, 'Sheed) or simply weren't winning enough (KG, McGrady). Any way you slice it, the heir apparent to the crown that went from Magic and Larry and then to Jordan never emerged.
But it wasn't all the fault of the players, during the 90's, Nike basically took over the shoe world and as they did the marketing campaigns became weaker and weaker. There really hasn't been a memorable, long term ad campaign since Nike's Fun Police and even that didn't work that well because it introduced too many players and didn't showcase any individuals. Look at the shoe commercials of the early 90's: you had Mr. Robinson's Neighborhood for David Robinson, the Mars Blackmon?Jordan campaign, the Grandmama angle that made Larry Johnson's gold teeth more palatable to the American public (and likely paved the way for Tyler Perry's Madea film series), the Chris Rock Lil' Penny campain. As Nike became a virtual monopoly, the ads have become weaker. Matters weren't helped by the injuries to marquee guys like Larry Johnson and Penny, but Shaq didn't have a solid campaign. His highlight ad is still his first "Don't Fake the Funk on a Nasty Dunk" commercial.
Part of the reason that the NBA was popular was because the shoe companies made the players into stars. You couldn't escape Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, or Dr. J. They were shilling everything but it all started with their shoe campaigns. Now the shoe companies pay so much that players are too expensive to promote many lesser products while not boosting their personality or public persona to make them more desirable as spokespeople. Since Penny in '94 there hasn't been a Nike/Converse/Adidas developed star. With the game being bogged down on the court by defensive minded teams and off the court by tabloid tales of ego and greed, the NBA needed the shoe companies to help them weather the storm and the shoe companies weren't there to help. (Furthermore, the fall in creativity at Costaco Brothers hurt too. Their old posters helped build character and personality (The X-Man Cometh being perhaps my favorite) while their new ones are just action shots against cheap backgrounds.

The Dropped Baton
Every other decade featured graceful passings of power. Detroit took the baton from Boston, Chicago took it from Detroit. The Rockets borrowed it for a couple of years before Michael Jordan snatched it back. But Michael nor Hakeem never really made the pretty pass to a member of the class of the 90's. The Bulls disbanded without being conquered and laid down the baton. The Spurs pushed it forward a bit, although the focus was more on David Robinson's last hurrah rather than Duncan's first title. The Lakers then took control and continued to kick the baton down the track rather than pick it up and run with it. I can't think of a more dysfunctional dynasty. They lost to a then team of unknowns in Detroit who, when they finally made a name for themselves, lost the title to the boring Spurs squad. This is no offense to San Antonio, but let's be honest, after watching a Spurs game you'd think the biggest name in the game is Eva Longoria. It would be fitting if Cleveland or Miami could take the title so that the Lost Generation could really have the book's closed on them. Shaq would fill his role of most dominant and he could pick up the baton and hand it to Dwyane Wade to carry on.

The Continental Divide
Another issue for the 90's generation was that their NBA Finals was never really the NBA Finals. After Jordan hung it up, the balance of power had shifted completely to the West. Whether it was Lakers/Blazers or Lakers/Kings, the real rivalries were out West. By the time the Finals rolled around, nobody was really interested. The Nets and Pacers were more like afterthoughts when compared to the battles in the Western Conference Playoffs. Even when the Pistons finally beat the Lakers, the initial reaction was based around the implosion of the Lake Show dynasty as opposed to giving the Pistons any credit. However, the class of '00's is much better dispersed which will help the league. Wade, Lebron, Dwight and Darko will battle in the East battle to take on 'Melo, Amare, Brand, Chris Paul in the West. (On a side note, it also shouldn't be seen as a coincidence that the generation that lost the mantle of power in world basketball is being buoyed this year by foreigners Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki.)

So here lies the grave of the Lost Generation of the 90's. Whlie they still have a few more years left on their tanks, most of them are heading towards the days of being supporting players to the new era of stars.

Posted by SoulHonky at 09:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Since this is a Can Danny site, I'll avoid the cringeworthy 2001 draft and only focus on the drafts that Danny has run. Has Danny been as great as everyone likes to say or has his draft day work been a bit overrated?

2003: The Last Year I Ever Listened to Chad Ford :
Danny took: Marcus Banks and Kendrick Perkins
I wanted: Leandrinho Barbosa and Maciej Lampe
Hindsight: Andy Katz actually nailed this in his mock draft as he had Mo Williams going to the C's at #20. He rationalized that he was a good young PG despite not having the best workouts. This insight elicited a simple "Huh?" from Chad Ford who proceeded to fill his draft board with names like Lampe, Malick Badianne, and Travis Hansen. Then again Katz also had us taking Sofaklis Schortsianides who has yet to even come to America (he's supposedly making it over next year and joining the Clippers). In hindsight, Perkins is still a great pick where we got him although you could argue for Mo Williams and Josh Howard would have been the best possible draft. It was a good draft for Ainge. Not so great for me.

2004: The Year We Didn't Take the Falling Star :
Danny took: Al Jefferson, Delonte West, Tony Allen, Justin Reed
I wanted: Josh Smith, Delonte West, Anderson Varejao, Ricky Paulding
Hindsight: I really wanted the Pierce for Livingston and Maggette rumor to be true but apparently Wilcox and Maggs was the best offer coming out of L.A. Still, I couldn't believe that Josh Smith, a supposed top five talent, fell to us at 15. I was even more stunned when we passed over Josh for another high schooler. I still think Josh would have been the better pick but we have to see what Big Al can do next season. West was an obvious choice. I didn't quite get why we drafted Tony Allen because I thought we were pretty set at the swing spots and could have used a big body like Varejao. While I'm a big fan of Tony, I still think we could use Sideshow Anderson, who's come alive in the conference semis, averaging 11 and 5 and seeminly always taking a crucial charge. Reed is better than Paulding but neither really mattered or was ever going to get that much time in Beantown. As for who should have been taken, you could argue Kevin Martin but right now it's hard to question either my or Danny's first round. The second round pick should have been used on Andres Nocioni who went undrafted.

2005: The Year We Did Take or Trade the Falling Star :
Danny took: Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Orien Greene
I wanted: Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes, Kennedy Winston
Hindsight: The biggest change in this draft is that I would have found a way to acquire Chris Paul. I was all for the Paul for Van Exel and #3 trade which didn't go down reportedly because we wanted Travis Outlaw and they were demanding our pick. I would have just gone with Pierce for the pick. Gerald and Gomes were no brainers although I was angling for a trade to get Monta Ellis or Aundray Blatche. I had never heard of Orien Greene as was hoping we took Kennedy Winston who is now in Spain.

So What Say I Looking at it now, I'd say I'm close but Danny holds a slight edge due to his second round picks. Ainge has been steadier, shying away from a bust like Lampe but I think he really missed the boat with not taking Josh Smith. I also think we should have dealt Pierce but his career season put a damper on my saying that the deal was something we definitely should have done. It's hard to knock Danny's choices though and you can't really say his draft record is overrated. While there were better options on board, the choices he made have been solid and could definitely improve. It should be interesting to see what he does this season.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Looking at the roster of today's Boston Celtics, I can't really say that Danny has put us in a much better situation than M.L. Carr did.

Raef Lafrentz = Pervis Ellison: Raef is definitely better than Pervis but they are both overpaid big men who aren't helping the Celtics out very much. The craziest part of it all is that Raef will make more money in 2008/9 than Pervis' entire contract was worth (6 years, 12 million). Inflation's a bitch, and so are these two. Neither could really help the C's get banner 17 but neither could really go anywhere because of their contracts.

Brian Scalabrine = Greg Minor: I really liked Minor but he was a flawed player. He seemed like he was about to turn a corner but suffered a debilitating injury from which he never recovered. I know some people like Veal but he just doesn't add anything to the team and is a waste on our roster. He should send Jason Kidd a Mother's day card because Kidd weaned him to the contract he signed with us.

Dan Dickau = Dana Barros: Barros was coming off an All-Star season but wasn't worth the money that he made. He had a great season because the 'Sixers were terrible and their offense was entirely comprised of setting pick after pick for Dana until he either got an open three or spotted an open man on a missed defensive switch. Dickau isn't really what this team needs either. While he is more of a point guard than anyone we have, he can't play a lick of defense and, like Dana, made his money off of being good for a bad team. In his short time in Boston, he came back to reality and got his pre-New Orleans stats.

Delonte West = David Wesley: Solid guards who were brought in on the cheap. West was a late first round pick. Wesley was a free agent signing. Both guys are very solid but both have their weaknesses. While some people may get upset about this comparison, they forget how good Wesley was, especially during his years in Charlotte.

Tony Allen = Rick Fox: Defensive minded players with solid offensive games. M.L. inherited Fox but resigned him, something that Rick Pitino was not wise-enough to do when the time came. Also like Fox, Allen could be gone next season as he seems like our most likely trade bait this offseason.

Kendrick Perkins = Eric Williams: Solid role players who help most on the defensive end. Williams actually had a better post game than Perkins when he arrived but Perk is developing nicely. While Perk's value is much higher because he is a center, like E-Will, I don't see Perk becoming more than a role player.

Marcus Banks = Eric Montross: The "mistake" of their drafts, Ainge dumped Banks while M.L. used Montross to steal away a lotto pick from the Dallas Mavericks. Also, Banks actually played well once he was shipped off while Montross was what he was which was not very good.

Gerald Green and #7 = the #3 and #6: Ainge lucked out having a lotto talent fall in his lap in Gerald Green while M.L. lucked out that the Mavericks were complete morons and were willing to move down in the draft AND give up a future unprotected pick for Eric Montross.

Ryan Gomes = Dee Brown: Fan favorites who are talented but are best off the bench and even then have their weaknesses.

Orien Greene = Marty Conlon Neither had any business getting as much playing time as they did. Orien has some potential but will he be around long enough to realize it?

Dwayne Jones = Steve Hamer : Big men nobody is really expecting much out.

Al Jefferson = Antoine Walker: Talented young power forwards with major question marks surrounding them. Can Al mature? Can he stay healthy and in shape? Could Antoine play the post? Could the C's win with a three point chucking 4?

Wally Sczcerbiak = Todd Day Both were prolific shooters. Unfortunately, Todd wasn't as prolific when it came to getting his shots to go in. Still, his contract was short term and while we're stuck with Wally, Todd was a free agent after 1997.

Pierce = Dino Radja: There's really no comparison but that's the point. Dino was the franchise player that M.L. inherited. He was not very good and by 1997 wasn't even starting every game. The Celtics let him go, opening even more cap space. Pierce is doing his best but right now his best is just keeping up from better lottery picks.

MLE/LLE = Cap Space: M.L. left the Celtics with a ton of cap space which Rick Pitino immediately used in a somewhat Danny Ainge like manner, signing guys like Andrew Declerq, Travis Knight, Bruce Bowen and Chris Mills. I say it is only a "somewhat Danny Ainge" manner because Chris Wallace did hip Ricky onto the talent on Bruce Bowen, whom they also brought in that offseason. Ainge has yet to sign someone that good nor has he signed anyone who actually played defense.

In hindsight, people will look at the current Celtics and say there is one big difference: potential. But, honestly, how high is the ceiling of our young players. Is Delonte that much more than a rich man's David Wesley? Can Big Al become an impact player like Antoine? Will Gerald be Chauncey or Mercer? The funny thing is that while people will take this comparison as a slight, Ainge's best move right now is to remain M.L. Carr. The worst thing that Danny could do is follow Celtics history and make Pitino-like moves, dealing our youth for veterans. While people like to mention names like Jermaine O'Neal and Kevin Garnett, it's more likely that we'll be getting guys like Kenyon Martin, Carlos Boozer, or (shudder) Stephon Marbury. The type of guy that will end any hope of cap flexibility while not making us true title contenders.
So where are we? Back where we started about a decade ago. We have a piece or two but need patience and good management to turn the potential and promise into playoff glory. Can Danny do it? Only time will tell but I'm not holding my breath.

Posted by SoulHonky at 12:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)

Earlier in the season, I was fully supporting the deal to send Raef and Pierce to Chicago for Andres Nocioni, Chris Duhon, Tim Thomas, and both Knicks picks. Say we made that deal, where would we be now?

Our lineup would have been this:

• C: Perkins, Blount, Borchardt
• PF: Jefferson, T. Thomas, Gomes
• SF: Nocioni, Allen, Scalabrine
• SG: R. Davis, West, G. Green.
• PG: Duhon, Banks, Dickau

So what comes of this?

The streets are safer: With Duhon in tow, the Celtics don't need Orien Greene.
We get something from the Antoine deal: Since add Nocioni and lose Raef, we'd likely dump Justin Reed and keep the big man that we got in the Antoine deal. Curtis Borchardt is no prize but I would have liked to give him a shot at some emergency minutes.
Does Gomes get a shot earlier? Odds are no he doesn't. Tony Allen can't really handle the SF spot so perhaps Gomes gets minutes with Tim Thomas as the forwards. Since Timmy is more of a perimeter forward, Gomes might have gotten to show his interior presence earlier. Still it's a stretch. Most likely, it would still take both Perkins and Jefferson going down to get him in, unless Doc decides to use him to backup Blount. Either way, the trade doesn't open up playing time for Gomes until said injuries.
West moves to combo-guard : I would have Duhon start and have West eat up the minutes backing up both Chris and Ricky. We also could go smaller and move Ricky to the three and have Duhon and Delonte in the backcourt. I've always felt Delonte would be best suited coming off the pine and this would allow us to do so.
The Celtics are terrible: Goodbye 6th pick! We'd be a pretty god-awful team but we'd have two top five lottery picks for our trouble. Not to mention that we'd also likely have top top picks in the 2007 draft because we wouldn't rush to use up our cap space in this weak free agent crop.
The League is our Oyster: We would have freed up cap space by getting rid of both of our max contracts, we'd have Nocioni, Davis, and Blount along with two top five picks to offer in deals. We could move Nocino, Davis, Blount, and a pick for a big name and STILL have a top 5 pick to use.

So What Say I?
A mixed bag. While I like the thought of rebuilding, I didn't realize Nocioni was 26 at the time I was floating this deal. I love his game but this team is a ways away so we'd have been better off holding out for Gordon or Deng. Also, with the Bulls retaining Gordon, they have a pierce that they could easily combine with Raef to make him easier to move. Portland, Utah, or Denver might move their problematic power forwards to Chicago for, say, Raef, Gordon, and Sweetney. As much as I'm not sold on any of those guys for the C's, adding Boozer/Zach/K-Mart to a lineup of Hinrich, Pierce, Deng, and Chandler could be frightening.
But I can't say enough about the picks and cap space and our ability to start fresh. The biggest issue is that this draft is a crapshoot. How good will Ty Thomas and Adam Morrison turn out to be? Is Bargnani and Gay the new Dirk and Finley or Tskitishvilli and Rodney White? I don't know where we'd be. A lot of people might argue that we'd be back where we were in 1997, but then again, how many people would turn down a shot at Billups and T-Mac if they had another chance at it?
In the end, this is one of the few moves/non-moves that doesn't bother me at all. I'd love to see Pierce retire in Celtic green. Then again, if dealing him will get us closer to NBA gold, then we have to put our sentiment behind us and make the move. Was this that move? Only time will tell.

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel had this piece in yesterday's paper.

(Larry) Harris (the Bucks GM) said the Bucks' most glaring need next season is "an athletic swing player" who can serve as a lockdown defender. "I want him to be something different than what Michael (Redd) and Bobby (Simmons) bring to the table," Harris said. --- "Can I get a defensive player that can shoot the three, put it on the floor, guard some of the best 2's and 3's in the league and come off the bench and understand his role?" Harris said. "That is the guy I want."

Is it me or does that sound like Tony Allen? While Tony's three point stroke isn't pristine, he did shoot a 38% clip in his rookie season. This really seems like a deal that will help both squads. The C's get a true point guard while the Bucks get a young player who excels on the defensive end. The one drawback of this deal could be Tony's height. Harris may prefer a bigger guy like James Posey. Josh Childress is another option but his three point shooting percentage is deceiving as he takes less than one per game. Still, a Childress for Mo Williams deal would make sense for both teams and it could be expanded if the Bucks also wanted to ship out Magloire.

But I still think Tony is a definite option as he is young and on an inexpensive contract, two things the Bucks and Larry Harris love. This gives hope that we could net a point guard without having to give up one of our main core guys.

A separate article in the Sentinel also mentioned that the Bucks were looking for a post player who could spread the floor: "A power forward who can play out on the floor and space the court, one who can shoot the jumper but also post up." Could Raef be a possibility as well? Magloire, Mo for Raef, Tony and a future first perhaps?

I only want one of the players below on the Celtics. Can you guess who it is?

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Where would we stand today if we didn't go after Wally Szczerbiak? How would our position this offseason change? What would have transpired had Ricky, Marcus, Mark, and Justin remained on our team?

Marcus Banks: No difference. Danny made the questionable move of turning down the option on Banks' contract meaning that Marcus was to be an unrestricted free agent after this season anyway. All that would have happened was that he probably would have gotten more minutes once Delonte went down and he might have helped his salary negotations with a solid performance in those games. Then again, Doc might have let him rot on the bench. Either way, he wasn't staying in Beantown.

Justin Reed: Never would have played. Is also a free agent. No loss. Ricky Davis: Ricky would have been Ricky, and he might have been able to show off a bit for an offseason trade by being the main man once Pierce went down. Since our won/loss record didn't change much after the deal, I don't think you can say our draft pick would have been affected by the deal (or lack thereof).

Mark Blount: Now while some people say that the Mark Blount rejuvenation would never have happened had he not been traded, the question one has to ask them is: What rejuvenation? Yeah he looked like a new and shudder-to-think even more annoying version of himself when he played the C's after the deal but his monthly split actually were worse after the deal. As much as I despised Blount, one has to think that he would have some trade value this offseason, especially since he, Ricky Davis, and the lottery pick could be grouped for a top player.

What We Lose: A lottery protected first round pick & Wally Szczerbiak.
This is like a fat girl who might be cute if she lost some weight. Do you get a little something something now right now? Yeah, enough to tide you over but not enough to make you happy. Is their potential in the future? Maybe. Could you have done better if you waited for someone else to come along? Odds are, yes. (Then again, if we hold on and can't move Blount in this offseason, then we're stuck with nothing but what amounts to a waste of flesh in our hands.)

So What Say I?
With Blount and Ricky on the payroll, we would have a much better standing in trades. As annoying as Blount was, teams would rather get more for their money and it is easier dealing an underpaid swingman at 6 million with an overpaid big making 5 million than trying to move an injured swingman who makes 10 million and a 2008 (at the earliest) lotto protected pick. Oh, and if Danny had simply picked up Banks' option, we'd have him as trade bait as well. An offer of Blount, Ricky, Banks, and a first round pick equals 14 million which could net us a pretty damn good player in return, and someone definitely better than Wally. Personally, I would be willing to roll the dice on getting stuck with Blount if it meant getting a better prize this offseason. If we change thing, I'd say rescind the deal and let's see what Ricky and Blount can get us this offseason.

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Charlotte Bobcats have been an unlucky team so far during their short tenure in the NBA. They just missed out on Dwight Howard and got Emeka Okafor who seems solid but unspectacular. They missed out on Chris Paul, but still, Raymond Felton is far from a slouch. I don't think luck was the issue with the selection of Sean May who, in my opinion, a bad pick. Nothing has changed after injuries add yet another question mark to his already cloudy "potential". On the bright side, Gerald Wallace seems like he is finally coming into his own and Primov Brezec has filled the middle quite nicely.

The Core: Emeka Okafor, Ray Felton, Sean May, Gerald Wallace

Gerald and the lotto picks are the foundation of the house that Bernie Bickerstaff is building. How sturdy that foundation is is a question that many fan in Charlotte have to be wondering. Okafor and May combined for 49 games this season and even Wallace missed 27 games this last season.

The Supporting Cast: Brevin Knight is one of the best backup guards in the business and Primov Brezec is a solid big man. Melvin Ely is good enough, I guess, while Bernard Robison showed he belonged in the rotation with his play in the second half of the season.

The Needs: Outside shooting is a must. The two guard spot is the one area that hasn't been addressed and will likely be one of Bernie's top priorities this offseason.

The Bait: The Cats have a lotto pick to play with as well as a number of very palatable contracts in Wallace, Knight, and Brezec. While they still have a limited salary cap so they may want to hold off a year before really making a rush at free agents or big ticket item. Also, why rush to be good when the 2007 draft is looking like a possibly top-notch draft?

Cap Space: As was noted before, they don't have a full cap until next offseason. Still, they have around over 20 million available this season.

So where do they go from here?

Draft The obvious pick for the 'Cats would be Brandon Roy. He's a four year college player, smart, versatile, and has a history of injuries. He should fit right in. He would be a reach in the top three but if the 'Cats drop to the 4th or 5th position in the draft, I'd be willing to bet they grab the former Washington Husky. If they get a top three pick, they should grab one of the available power forwards, be it Tyrus Thomas, LaMarcus Aldridge, or Andrea Bargnani. Okafor hasn't been healthy enough nor is Sean May good enough to pass up a talented big man.

Trade They need to trade Brevin Knight. Unless he's some absolute sensai to Ray Felton and the team would collapse without his powers in the locker room, there just isn't a reason to keep a thirty one year old journeyman point guard with trade value sitting on the pine. The Bobcats should look to move him for a young talent. J.R. Smith is on the outs in New Orleans so the Charlotte should make a play for him. Send out feelers about guys like Josh Childress, Tony Allen, or another young guard.

Free Agency This is a weak free agent class and Charlotte would be best served saving their room. Honestly, what's Bonzi Wells going to get this team besides a worse lottery pick? If they deal Knight, they could scoop up a backup point guard but other than that their main decision is whether or not to reup Melvin Ely.

Possible 2006/7 Lineup: May, Okafor, Wallace, Roy, Felton with Knight, Brezec, Robinson, Ely.
No change but, hey, slow and steady wins the race.

Can they get there from here? The Bobcats could be major players in the offseason of 2007 as they'll have great trade assets, a lottery pick (once again), and a ton of cap room. They still don't have anyone I'd consider a real franchise player but they should be able to obtain one next offseason. The team won't win many games in '06/07 but they will be ready to make the leap and compete for a playoff spot the year after that. If Bernie plays his cards right, he could maneuver this team to the top of the Eastern Conference in a few years.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

123 million. 23 wins. A team that is literally giving their coach heart attacks. Players threatening to fight one another. Players jumping each other in the shower... to fight. Things pretty much couldn't get any worse for the New York Knicks. So how is Isiah going to turn it around?

Clean Out the Front Office

Fire Isiah. This is obvious. While he isn't as bad as Scott Layden (Layden built a team with a high payroll and no talent) he also is likely to make deals bringing in Darius Miles, Kenyon Martin, and Ruben Patterson which would make the Knicks about as dysfunctional as a team could be.

This might shock many people but the Knicks next move is obvious IMO: Fire Larry Brown. While Brown is one of the best coaches of all-time, the man's longest tenure was six years in Philly and that was before he was one turnover away from having heart failure. The man's schtick doesn't work everywhere and it clearly didn't work in NY. At best, he'll be around for a few years but it'll take that time to clean up this mess.

Who do you bring in to replace Larry? Honestly, I don't know but one guy who could work, even though I can't stand him, is Jim O'Brien. Am I an Obie fan? No, not at all. I actually was glad when he finally left Boston but the bottom line is that the man wins. He has been to the playoffs every year in which he has coached a full season. And for all of the talk of him not playing the right guys in Philly, it's not like Sam Dalembert and friend exactly lit it up this year.
Since tanking in hopes of a great draft pick doesn't work for NY (they dealt their 2007 pick in the Curry deal), they might as well at least find the guy to make the team mediocre for a year or two when, hopefully, the Knicks should be able to take the next step towards contending at which point they hire a better coach. (Then again, name me a better coach and I'll probably immediately admit that it's a better option than Obie but for now, that's who I'm going with.)

The Moves(Note: These moves are very questionable but it's the basic idea that I think could work)

Stephon Marbury, David Lee, Nate Robinson for Jason Williams and Antoine Walker: This is a HORRIBLE trade for the Knicks but honestly they are going to have to give up a lot to dump Stephon. Antoine is reunited with old friend O'Brien and the duo eyes Beantown in hopes of luring Paul Pierce away. Miami seems like the one team that could possibly handle Starbury. Shaq is the man and Wade's versatility and ability to run the point now and then helps open up Steph to focus on scoring. I also thing Marbury will realize that he will never get a better opportunity to win than in Miami which should help him keep his ego in check. The Heat take a gamble but if they don't win it this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see them risk it before Shaq's window of winning a title closes any further.

Jamal Crawford and Quentin Richardson for Rashard Lewis and Damien Wilkins : The Sonics are looking to move 'Shard and they get a guy they've always loved In Crawford and a replacement at the three in Q. Damien Wilkins is a solid guy to do the dirty work which NY needs and Obie will love.

Dump Stevie Francis for the #6 pick, Eddie Griffin, Trenton Hassell, and Marko Jaric : While everyone is expecting Stephon to go to Minnesota, maybe the better option is Stevie Franchise? The Wolves need something and they give up next to nothing in this deal. The Knicks do it to get more role players and to pick up the 6th pick in the draft.

Malik Rose or Mo Taylor, Jerome James, #6 pick for Carlos Boozer : If the Jazz really want to move Boozer, they'll have to take back, at least, Jerome James' contract. They get a high lotto pick and a servicable big man in Rose or an expiring contract in Mo Taylor. Odds are they'll go with the cap space and select Mo Taylor.

The Lineup
C: Eddy Curry, Channing Frye, Jackie Butler
PF: Carlos Boozer, Antoine Walker, Malik Rose
SF: Rashard Lewis, Eddie Griffin
SG: Jalen Rose, Damien Wilkins, Trenton Hassell
PG: Jason Williams, Marko Jaric

While the Knicks take on some bad long term deal, they are smaller long term deals than the ones they had. The biggest question mark is Boozer but you'd hope that he could stay healthy and give you the 20/10 that he delivered in the final month of the year. You hold on to Jalen Rose either to move him at the trade deadline or to just let him walk and give James Dolan some financial relief. At #20 and #29 in the draft you take the best players available. I'm sure Obie would push for Kevin Pittsnoogle but he's a short term fix so you don't have to listen to him.

This is some major league spitballing but I think deals like these are the kind that can get the Knicks a cohesive unit and a team that could fight for the final playoff spot in the East.

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Since Boston's lack of any mid-level salaries makes their trade maneuverablity limited (at best), let's take a look at other team and address what they could do this offseason. We'll start off with the Atlanta Hawks, a team that, to change around the lyrics of Prince's 1999, "Two Thousand Zero Zero, Steve Smith traded, whoops, out of playoffs." Not exactly as catch as the original but it gets the point across. The Atlanta Swingmen have peaked at 35 wins since the turn of the decade and while the talent is looking better, the organization is anything but.

The Core: Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams

Marvin makes it solely because you can't give up on a #2 draft pick after just one season. If Billy Knight thinks, as Chad Ford did, that Marvin is the best player from last year's draft, he has to take a breath and let the young man grow. He was coming off of just one year in college so some growing pains are needed. Josh Smith is on the verge of becoming a superstar or at the very least, a AK47 level stud. After the All-Star break, he posted 17 points, 7.8 board, 4.1 assists, 1.03 steals and 3.13 steals. He even lowered his TO's to 2.3 a game and started hitting threes for once, knocking down 32% of them (which isn't great but better than the 0% he had in the first half of the season). Joe Johnson is overpaid but not as much as people like to act. Look at his numbers compared to Paul Pierce's career season.

The Supporting Cast: Zaza Pachulia proved to be a free agent steal, pulling down 11 and 8 for only 4 million per. Josh Childress has been everything people thought... and feared. A solid player but most certainly not a lottery pick. Salim Stoudamire can shoot lights out but he's also a headcase who really doesn't do much positive besides shooting lights out. Royal Ivey works hard, which says it all. If the first comment you have about someone is that they work hard then they are probably not that good.

The Needs: This team desperately needs a big man and a point guard. They also could use some perimeter shooting off the pine.

The Bait: For all of the years in the lottery, the Hawks don't have much in the form of trade assets to show for it. Their main trade asset is Al Harrington, whom is only half of an asset because he's a free agent so the Hawks only hope of getting something for him is in a sign-and-trade. Any talk of the Hawks keeping him is purely positioning to help their standing in sign-and-trade talks. Signing him to any kind of big money deal would make no sense whatsoever. Then again, that's never stopped Billy Knight. They also have the 4th slot in the draft, which could be disastrous because if the three big men go 1, 2, 3, then that leaves nothing but swingmen (Rudy Gay and Adam Morrison) at their pick. If that happens, they almost have to deal the pick.

Cap Space: Loads of it. They'll have around 20 million to spend this offseason.

So where do they go from here?

Draft The Hawks are missing two of the hardest positions to fill yet I still feel OK about their prospects. The biggest issue is the draft. LaMarcus Aldridge obviously fills their big man need while Andrea Bargnani's versatility is almost a perfect complement to Josh Smith. In a couple of years, those two could become a very dangerous duo. However, if the Hawks can't get one of those two, they would be best served dealing the pick. Ty Thomas would be a solid pick despite the fact that he's only an inch taller and actually ten pounds lighter than Marvin Williams. Still, his defensive presence would be a boost for the Hawks.

Trade They also have to hope that a team with no cap space goes after Harrington so they can get something for him. Al has mentioned a desire to go to Chicago but I can't imagine they are that interested in him since he isn't that much better than Deng or Nocioni IMO. Golden St. could be an option for Al, but they would have to get a young stud like Monta Ellis or Andris Biedrins if they are going to take back one of Golden St.'s ugly contracts. The Knicks might offer someone like Stevie Franchise in a deal but I would go with the cheaper and more manageable Jamal Crawford, who could benefit from playing with a 2-guard like Joe Johnson who can run the point from time to time. Ideally though, the Hawks would get creative and work some sort of three way trade to get back Jamaal Magloire and Mo Williams from the Bucks. Mo is a pure point while Jamaal could focus on doing what he does best, rebound and block shots. I just don't see Milwaukee going after Al since they just sank money in Bobby Simmons. For some reason, I see Stephon Marbury ending up here, the state where he played his college ball, but that's just because I can't really see him fitting in anywhere else.

Free Agency From the sounds of it, the Hawks first option is to go after Nene Hilario. That wouldn't be such a bad idea but investing big money on a big man who just blew out his knee isn't the greatest of ideas. Speedy Claxton makes sense as a scoring PG alongisde Joe Johnson as long as his market value doesn't go through the roof. Right now, I don't see too many sure-fire signings so the Hawks might be better continuing the slow build and not forcing any long term contracts just because they can.

Possible 2006/7 Lineup: Nene, Zaza, Smith, Johnson, Speedy with Marvin, Bargnani, Childress, Jose Juan Barea (2nd round pick).
This lineup doesn't include whomever they add in a sign-and-trade with Al Harrington so the future is looking bright.

Can they get there from here? The playoffs are still probably a year or two on the horizon but the Hawks can make definite steps in the right directions. An Aldridge or Bargnani draft along with a solid pick in the second round should help set their core while they could fill both of their positions of need, if not in a deal for Al Harrington than in free agency. On the downside, they could easily repeat their history and trade their pick for a headcase, draft another small forward, and overpay a so-so big man. The options are endless for the Hawks; the question is will Billy Knight choose the right one?

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

If Chad Ford has one weakness... well, then I wouldn't spend this much time bashing him. The problem is that he has MANY weaknesses, all of which I hope to cover in the coming weeks leading up to the 2006 NBA Draft. As we noted before, his love of foreign prospects is probably his most obvious.

Reason #2: Chad's Euro-Lust

"Maciej Lampe... was a huge draft steal. I've seen Lampe play enough to know that his slide wasn't warranted. Lots of teams dropped the ball on him. If he can work out his contract issues with Real Madrid, he'll make Knicks fans happy."

For those scoring at home, Maciej Lampe has been in the NBA three years now and still hasn't gotten into 82 games. And the problem wasn't his contract. This is a player who the Chad had ranked ahead of: TJ Ford, Dwyane Wade, Chris Kaman, and Kirk Hinrich. (Mind you at this time he also believe Milos Vujanic was the PG of the future for the NY Knicks.) While I'm not saying that Lampe can't turn it around and become a decent pro, I think it's safe to say that Chad overrated him a smidgen.

But the beauty of Chad Ford is that he doesn't stop at just overrating players; he seems to adopt them and defend them to the bitter end. For instance, the New York Knicks received an A- for their draft in 2003, in spite of the fact that he said their first round pick Mike Sweetney didn't fit the team needs and that that pick deserved a C. He bumped up their grade up because the Knicks got Lampe and another Euro, Slavko Vranes, in the second round.
Even then, this one instance could have been forgivable but Ford wasn't done there. He mentioned Lampe time and again in his draft grade article, dropping gems like, "It's tough to criticize Pat Riley for passing on Lampe when 24 other teams did the same thing." (Riley took Dwyane Wade); "I'm not as high on the Cabarkapa pick. It seems to me that Brian Cook or Maciej Lampe were both better players." (While Zarko's no prize, it's not like Brian Cook or Lampe are all that much better); "The Blazers passed on several guys (Lampe, Barbosa, Pachulia, Cook) with just as much upside." (They passed on those guys for Travis Outlaw who might still have more upside than the guys mentioned)

And the love affair didn't stop after the draft either. Lampe did literally nothing besides get traded for Stephon Marbury in his rookie campaign yet Ford wouldn't let it go, writing:

Maciej Lampe, C, Suns: He's still not playing big minutes, but when Lampe does get into the game, good things usually happen. Suns sources claim a fight with Amare Stoudemire in practice has changed the season for Lampe. The kid is cocky and has never met a shot he doesn't like, but the Suns are starting to see a few returns from the first pick in the second round. He had 12 points and six boards in 29 minutes at San Antonio on Sunday. He played 26 minutes against the Bucks and scored 17 points and grabbed seven boards. He played 18 minutes recently against the Clippers and scored eight points on 4-for-5 shooting. Those numbers aren't blowing anyone away, but for an 18-year-old big man? The Suns will take it."

That 17 point outing in Milwaukee is still his career high and he's never bettered the 29 minutes against San Antonio either. He did have a 23/12 game on 50% shooting this year in the preseason for New Orleans. The Hornets were so impressed that they shipped him off to Houston for Moochie Norris.

But Lampe isn't the only one. And he most certainly is not the most embarassing. The love affair between Chad Ford's and the Siberian Giant Pavel Podkolzine is the stuff of legend. Pavel was supposed to enter the 2003 draft and had an amazing workout which caught the eyes of NBA GM's. From then on, Chad hearted Pavel.

No. Really. In their mock draft for ESPN, Ford and Andy Katz had Chris Bosh falling to the 5th pick where Ford wrote, "My head says Bosh could be a real star in a year or two. But my heart says Podkolzine here." He then had the Clippers taking him 6th, wondering if the big man's workout would "be enough to wake GM Elgin Baylor out of his perpetual slumber?"
But then something happened: Pavel withdrew from the draft. He felt like he wasn't ready and didn't want to be a project in the NBA. He wanted to stay in Europe another year and polish his game.

The year passed and by then the wonderment was gone. Most GM's soured on Pavel and his days of a lottery pick were over. But the flame in Chad Ford's heart burned on!

In early mock draft, Ford had Pavel floating around the 11th pick. But when his final mock draft was released, he moved Podkolzine up to #5 to the Dallas Mavericks.

Mavericks president Donnie Nelson loves Podkolzine. I was with him in Italy when Nelson got his first chance to get on the floor and put Pavel through a workout, and that was before Dallas even owned a first-round pick. Nelson fell hard for the kid. Some people claim this is too high to take him, but that's nonsense -- if you like him, take him. There's no guarantee he'll be on the board lower. Toronto will look at him at No. 8. Golden State at No. 11. Seattle at No. 12. Utah with either No. 14 or No. 16. If he's the guy the Mavs' want, and this was the spot they could work a deal to trade into, take him.

The guys the Mavs apparently wanted was at the pick was Devin Harris. And while those teams might have looked at him 8, 11, 12, 14, and 16, Podkolzine wasn't drafted until the twenty-first pick in the draft. The Utah Jazz took him and promptly dealt him to Don Nelson and the Mavericks. Was Ford content that he at least got it right that Dallas was interested in him? No. Once again he had to alter his draft grade, this time to punish whoever dared trade the object of his affection. He downgraded Utah from an A to a B- because of the deal. He wrote, "But then, at No. 21 they trade away the rights to Pavel for a future first. Huh? I know the Jazz didn't want three picks, but at 21, Pavel's no longer a risk. How many No. 21 picks pan out? If he develops in Dallas, Kevin O'Connor will never forgive himself."

Chew on this quote for a minute. It will be the opening line of our next entry which will focus on another one of Chad Ford's weaknesses, the fact that he has no idea what he is talking about.

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)