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Summer Box Office Challenge 2011 UPDATE

So how are my guesses faring so far this summer? Depends on whether you're counting my monetary predictions or my guesses for which films would land in the top 10 and where. Here's the actual top 10, how much they've made, and where I guess they were going to land.

1. Transformers: Dark Side of the Moon - 335 million
I did alright with this one. I had Transformers at #1 at 415 million.
2. Harry Potter - 325 million
I did even better here. I had the Deathly Hallows landing at #2 with 365 million.
3. The Hangover II - 253 million
Whoops. I had the Hangover limping in at #10 with 185 million and I said that it might get bumped off by Bridesmaids.
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - 238 million
Not too shabby. I had Johnny Depp and friends landing in fifth place with 280 million.
5. Cars 2 - 185 million
Whoops. I overestimated the impact the merchandising of the original film would have on this one. I had what turned out to be widely recognized as Pixar's first misstep making 330 million for the #3 spot.
6. Thor - 180 million
Ditto on the whoops. I actually had Thor landing at the #6 spot but I was 95 million off as I expected it to clock in at 275.
7. Bridesmaids - 165 million
I should have trusted the internet. I just couldn't believe that the god awful trailers for this film would lead to box office gold but it did indeed break into the top ten.
8. Kung Fu Panda 2 - 161 million
Again, my placement was close as I had it placing 7th on my list but, again, my money was WAY off. This time, a mere 109 million separated my 270 million dollar prediction and the 161 million dollar gross so far.
9. X-Men: The First Class - 144 million
Once again, right placement, way wrong on the money. I had Matthew Vaughn's film breaking 200 million dollars.
Right now 10th place is Super 8 at 125 million but that will soon be eclipsed by Captain America, which is sitting at 124 million. Either way, I was way off on both of these. Cap was actually worse since I had that film coming in #4 with 320 million. The 70% drop in week 2 of release doomed that from ever happening and I doubt they'll come close to breaking even 200 million at this rate. I had Super 8 ranked 8th with 258 million and it's probably going to settle in at half of that (and will miss the top 10).

All in all, a pretty terrible list in terms of money but I got 9 out of 10 and, so far, am not too far off in terms of where I thought the films would fall. I can't beat myself up over The Hangover II because it really shouldn't have made that much money.


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