« The Tryout: Pete and the Pirates | Main | Don Cheadle is CAPTAIN PLANET »

Fantasy Football Lessons

So I had my first two fantasy football drafts of the year last night and I find myself tied to Rashard Mendenhall and Beanie Wells a little more than I probably would have liked. The one reason that I'm not that broken up about it is that I feel like Mendenhall is a rare workhorse back who gets red zone carries and Wells is a solid back who is now the last man standing in Arizona since his main competition, Ryan Williams, went down injured. Of course, part of me also feels like since Beanie isn't a sure thing, Larod Stephens-Howling could be a sleeper. But there were a few lessons that I learned from my first draft:

1. You Can't Build A Perfect Team: This should seem obvious but I think every fantasy football player heads into the draft expecting to put together their ideal lineup and are disappointed (usually midway through the draft) when that didn't happen. For me, these first two draft were odd since I usually wait on QB's but these were 6 point passing TD league so I wanted to invest early. Still, after looking over the league (and especially in 4 point passing TD leagues) I think QB is the position you can wait for. You should try to get 1 top receiver and, as always, grab your backs early. This year, it's tempting to wait on RB's since there are so many committees but I just can't see it being smart to have the other back in committees as a starter.

2. Wait on WR's: While I think it's smart to grab one elite receiver if you can, after that, I think it's better to wait on receivers. You can grab an elite TE early and that will make your life easier during the season so you don't have to decide between the decent but not that consistent free agents/mid-to-late drafted TE's. Once you get into the middle of the draft, the #2 receivers seem to be all the same. I also think that there are a lot of potential sleeper WR's who are falling in draft and, also, WR is the position where people can come out of nowhere. For instance, in PPR leagues, I wouldn't be surprised if John Fox's new regime in Denver could get Eddie Royal to where people thought he was last year. Andre Roberts could be the new #2 WR in Arizona and that's often a solid fantasy option. There's a lot out there. With running backs, sleepers are all-or-nothing. Guys like Delone Carter, Jamie Harper, Ben Tate could either take over for their starters and be very good or they'll be getting 10 - 15 carries a game and offering you very little if they don't find the end zone.

3. Avoid Patriots: To me, the goal is consistency and that's what Patriots players can't offer. You never know if Aaron Hernandez or Rob Gronkowski are going to be the go-to TE. Tom Brady often spreads the ball around and while I like Chad Ochocinco as a fit in real football, I don't think he's going to put up Randy Moss-like numbers. And the running backs, good lord. They could run a four headed monster in the backfield. The only Patriot worth picking up is, obviously, Tom Brady. After that, I'd look at Patriots as #3 wide receivers or backup running backs.

4. Don't Reach for Sleepers: I'm the king of drafting guys the year before they bust out and I also get a few guys in my head that I want and forget that I'm one of the few people who are that fired up about them. While guys like Tim Hightower have moved from sleeper to possible starter, many others like Denarius Moore, Antonio Brown, the aforemomention Roberts, aren't guys that you really have to take before the kickers and defenses start going.

5. Rest of Defense: This year, more than ever, I see defenses going rather early. I really don't know why. Maybe it's because people don't love their options so they decide to fill a starting spot than take a backup they don't love but I think it's a lot better to get some solid backups before landing a defense. There are usually one or two defenses worth grabbing but you can almost never tell who it's going to be. Two years ago San Francisco was the top scoring defense and a lot of the supposed top teams struggled. Last year, the defenses were more what you'd expect but only three of them scored enough to warrant an early pick. The one thing I would say about defenses is that the AFC Central is playing the NFC West this year so they may be the teams you'd want to take since the West, while improving, still isn't very good.

And finally, 6. Don't Listen to Anyone: OK, if you want to take Blaine Gabbert in the first round, you should probably listen to everyone but for the most part, you should just take the team you want and ignore the "experts". Looking back, most of these experts hit on 33% of their predictions at best. Hell, there was a guy on Yahoo! who kind of bragged about his picks last year and only had 2 good ones and had about 4 outright busts. Yahoo! is also guilty of writing so many columns that people have mentioned pretty much every players available at one point or another. Experts were the ones who thought Shonn Greene, Ryan Mathews, and didn't have Arian Foster on their radar at all. In the end, despite all of their time wasted on fantasy football, these experts don't know any better. You can use their composite rankings for help and should check up to make sure there aren't injuries or pre-season camp issues (like Ahmad Bradshaw beating out Brandon Jacobs last year) but, for the most part, go with your gut. This is your team and I find its better to win and lose with your own guys than to be sitting with a bunch of players that you got because other people said you should.


Hosting by Yahoo!

Post a comment

(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)

QotMarcus.gif

FilmRank021112 lineblue.jpg
PLEASE CLICK ON THIS AD...

SO I CAN MAKE SOME DOUGH!
lineblue.jpg