With the flopping of "The Change-Up", it seems like Ryan Reynolds's shot at the A-List has come up short. Reynolds, like most fallen It Boys, seemed like he had what it took to break out. He had the looks, the personality, a decent fan base from earlier, smaller films, and his marriage to Scarlett Johansson got him some more exposure from the tabloids. So what happened?

The first problem was that the movies weren't good. And not only were they not good but they weren't in his wheelhouse. Reynolds's fan base stemmed mostly from rom-coms like The Proposal or Definitely, Maybe, with a little help from his role in cult comedy Waiting... The Green Lantern was going to be a tough sell because not only was Reynolds's going to have to help sell a lesser known, harder to explain superhero but his geek credentials were pretty low after showing up in the worst movie of two different franchises (Blade III and X-Men: Origins: Wolverine). "The Change Up" was a little closer but he seems better suited for "Horrible Bosses", where his charm and ability to play put upon/exasperated could have been put to better use.

And while some people might think that Reynolds's failure would be a blow for Hollywood studios, the reality is that, in the casting offices, Reynolds had already been replaced. The reality is that when an actor is getting his shot at the big time, more often than not, there's already someone else lined up to replace him. The writing for Reynolds might have already been on the wall when studios didn't seem to be throwing roles at him and his bigger projects, a Deadpool film and RIPD, were going forward rather slowly. Despite their trying to sell Reynolds as the next big thing, it seems like Hollywood was already hedging their bets on him.

So who is the next actor to get their shot at the A-list? The most obvious Next It Boy is Michael Fassbender. He got his first taste of the big time with X-Men: The First Class and he's been the hottest prospect in Hollywood. The reason that Fassbender might be around for the long haul isn't that he's a surefire matinee star; it's that he doesn't seem to want to be one. Instead of going for the brain dead tentpole flicks (and the nice accompanying paychecks), he's choosing strong directors and interesting material. He reteamed with Steve McQueen (Hunger) and has 2011 releases with Soderbergh (Haywire) and Cronenberg (A Dangerous Method). And in 2012, he's in the much buzzed about Prometheus, which is Ridley Scott's return to sci-fi. The reason that this approach is usually better is because a) when in smaller pictures with notable directors, the focus is less on box office performance and more on actual acting performance. Also, it's always best to establish one's acting credentials so that box office failure doesn't mean the end of the world. Sam Rockwell did a solid job of this so when he failed to make a splash as a leading man, he was still able to fall back into character work and the occasional indie lead ala "Moon".

Contrast Fassbender's approach to that of another It Boy in Waiting, Chris Hemsworth. Thor did solid enough business and Hemsworth has been lining up the mainstream projects: Red Dawn, The Cabin in the Woods, Snow White and the Huntsman, and The Avengers along with Ron Howard's Formula One racing flick. Hemsworth is basically tying his future to the quality of these flicks. Right now, he doesn't have the fan base to help him carry a flick and if these films flop, the stink will most certainly get on him and hurt his future. Joel Edgerton, who broke out in "Animal Kingdom" faces a similar problem. His upcoming flicks "Warrior", "The Thing", and "The Odd Life of Timothy Green" all look lackluster. He does have a supporting role in "The Great Gatsby" to keep him afloat but he probably would have been better working on some indie films and building his rep rather than jumping on these so-so studio projects.

For instance, look at his "Warrior" co-star Tom Hardy. His supporting work in Layer Cake, Rock'n'Rolla, and Inception along with a breakout turn in "Bronson" has his star on the rise but he's mixed up his slate with a supporting role in the much hyped "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy", a slot in a film with a great ensemble "The Wettest Country in the World", and then the role of Bane in "The Dark Knight Rises". All of that should give him a nice foundation to fall back on if his shot at the A-list "Mad Max: Fury Road" and McG's "This Means War" don't work out.

Obviously, there are other names out there, like Hardy's "This Means War" co-star Chris Pine, but I think Hardy and Fassbender are probably the two guys that Hollywood is betting on right now. As for Reynolds, he's got some more chances to steady his ship, most notably "Safe House" alongside Denzel Washington, but part of me feels like his best move would be to find a strong TV show. He just strikes me as a guy that people would gladly invite into their house every week rather than someone they'd go out of their way to see. This isn't to say that it's completely over for him (Johnny Depp wasn't exactly setting the box office afire in the 90's) but I'm just not sure if Reynolds has a wide enough appeal to become a true A-list star.