John Hollinger Outdoes Himself
I'm not sure how much I can quote from Hollinger's latest article since it's on ESPN Insider but he claimed that the trade of Randy Foye/Mike Miller for #5 pick showed that the Wizards were on the same path as the 2007 Celtics.
Huh?
I can see that he's saying that the Wizards are trying to win now but to compare the Wizards move to the Celtics' 2007 offseason is an overstatement that would make even Skip Bayless blush.
The most obvious difference is that they didn't improve on their core. The Celtics added Ray Allen and then moved Al Jefferson for Kevin Garnett. The Wizards added Randy Foye and Mike Miller to a core that has been together for four years and, when they were all healthy, mustered a 42 wins and a first round exit.
If the Wizards were really going for it ala the Celtics, shouldn't they have been willing to part with their best young player in order to land the big fish? The Wizards turned down a deal for Amar'e Stoudemire. I'm not saying Amar'e made the most sense but it would have been more like the "Celtics route" than this deal. If anything, the Foye/Miller trade is more like the Celtics' 2006 route of dealing the #7 and Raef LaFrentz for Bassy Telfair and Theo Ratliff.
Granted, Hollinger does write that he doubts that the Wizards' plan will work but if you have no faith, why pretend it's a good move or go so far to compare it to the offseason that led to the title coming back to Boston?
Finally, at the end of his article, Hollinger decides to stop making sense at all and contradicts himself. First he says that the Wizards gave up the #5 pick in order to dump undesirable contracts but then, in his summary, lauds them for not being afraid to spend money. He said that they were like the Spurs, who added Richard Jefferson for expiring deals.
Except the Wizard didn't add payroll. I'm pretty sure they cut it. The Spurs added 15 million to their 2010-11 ledger while the Wizards dumped 4.8 million off of theirs. I also believe that they cut some money off of next year's salary as well. Saying the Wizards are going the Celtics route is a massive overstatement but to compare their move to the Spurs' RJ deal just seems to be completely and utterly wrong.
The bottom line is that the Wizards held one tradeable asset this offseason and they just dumped it for two mediocre players and some savings. They didn't improve on any of their current stars. Hollinger is usually, despite his numbers fetish, a smart hoops writer but in this case, he simply looks lost.
As for my take, I think the Wizards could regret this deal very soon. For starters, the rumors that were out there (and yes, they were just rumors) made a lot more sense. Sure, there were some bad ones like Larry Hughes and the #5 but there was also the Josh Howard and #22 offer from Dallas who supposedly wanted Jordan Hill. Even trying to get a three team deal could work. The Clippers were reportedly interested in Mike Miller for Marcus Camby so why not make that part of the swap (which they still could, and probably should).
Even if those deals didn't work out, the odds are that somebody was going to be available at #5 that would have tickled a rival GM's fancy. There is more and more talk of Ricky Rubio falling to #5. If that happened, the Wizards would have had a great trade chip to make a bigger deal. Even if someone like Thabeet or Harden fell, they could make a deal.
The Wizards had one trade chip and spent it on two guys who are probably best suited for the bench.
The Wolves, on the other hand, came away as the big winners. They added 5 million dollars to their 2010-2011 payroll but let's be honest, who's signing with Minnesota? Losing that money won't hurt them that much. More importantly, they upgraded their trade position. They now have four first round picks and around 20 million dollars in expiring deals. They could spin this deal into a blockbuster.
Granted, new GM Kahn (I'm sure he has a first name but he'll be known as just Kahn for now and forever) could completely screw it up and draft two busts with the #5 and #6 picks but, honestly, the Wolves wouldn't be much worse off than they were last year with Foye and Miller.
As for the Spurs trade, it was highway robbery. I'm surprised nobody could come up with a better offer, although the instant savings of Oberto and Bowen's non-guaranteed contracts was something that only a handful of teams could match. It puts the Spurs right back into title contention... if everyone is healthy.
Should be interesting to see what the next couple of days bring. A stunning open to the Draft Week so far.
