Each year on the Wordplayer message board, people throw down their predictions for the Summer Box Office. Last year, I woefully underestimated the power of Iron Man and this year I feel like I'm once again guessing low on the receipts of the first May release (Wolverine). In fact, I might be below the mark on most of my guesses. But I'm sticking with this instant analysis.
To spice things up (and to see if anyone is really out there) I'm going to make my own contest for the Summer Box Office with the prize being gift certificate to Amazon or your online DVD retailer of choice. The amount of the DVD will be .0000005 percent of the domestic gross of the biggest grossing movie of the Summer. And just in case my math is wrong, I'm saying that last year, "The Dark Knight" made 533 million and the gift certificate would have been for $266.50. Spiderman 3 would have given the winner $168. (And just in case something incredible happens, I'm capping the gift certificate at $500 bucks but I really don't think any film is going to make a billion dollars this summer).
At this point, I'd like to remind readers to click on the web ads on this page. Not that that would pay for the prize (I've made less than 10 bucks so far. Total) but it might be nice to make a little scratch to put towards this.
E-mail your Top Ten picks and how much you think they will gross to firstname.lastname@example.org and I'll send an e-mail back to confirm your picks. The confirmation e-mail might not come until that evening (I gotta job, y'know). The eligible films have to be released from Ma 1st to the last day in August. The deadline is midnight on April 30th. I'll try to set up a little offshoot web page for the contest.
I haven't quite come up with the exact scoring but I'm thinking something like: 5 points for picking the correct place a film comes in, 25 points for being the closest contestant to the final US domestic theatrical gross, 20 for 2nd, 15 for 3rd, 10 for 4th, 5 for 5th, and -10 points if one of your picks doesn't even crack the top 10. I might change it up depending on the number of entrants. (And if only a handful of people sign up, I'm cancelling the contest outright.)
For lists of release dates, go to Boxofficemojo.com or just google film release dates. To see the official SoulHonky picks, keep reading.
1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 335 million
A surprising number of people seem to love the first movie so I think that this one will make slightly more money. Still, I can't bring myself to predict that it will break the 400 dollar mark.
2. Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince - 310 million
If there's one movie that has me worried about shelling out more money than I want, it's this one. But none of the Harry Potter movies have grossed over 300 million domestically and this one is supposedly darker so it might lose some of the kiddie audience.
3. GI Joe: Rise of Cobra - 275 million
I'm going to say that this one makes less than Transformers because there are no fighting robots and the initial trailers haven't made it look very good. This film could make a lot less, especially since it looks more like a standard action film than a kid's movie.
4. Star Trek - 265 million
Arguably the best trailer of the year so far (at least for summer films) and JJ Abrams's name will get this a lot of money. But the sci-fi stigma will likely keep it from really making a mint.
5. Terminator: Salvation - 245 million
I originally had this a 290 million but I'm thinking the lack of kid draw as well as the lukewarm reception to the last Terminator movie will knock it down a bit.
6. Up - 220 million
This film doesn't seem all that interesting (at first glance at least) and it's coming during a run of kids movies so I'm not sure how well it will do. Still, it's Pixar so I'm not going to bet against it breaking the 200 million mark.
7. Night at the Museum 2 - 218 million
I could regret this pick but I really believe that the last one made a good chunk of change because of the timing of the release. It had next to no competition in terms of kid flicks as opposed to this year when it is facing competition from Up, Land of the Lost, and Imagine That. I'm probably way to low on this one so
8. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs - 210 million
How strong it the Ice Age franchise? I really don't know but this one has dinosaurs and this has a few weeks between it and the previous kid's films so I'm going to say it'll do better than the previous films.
9. Angels & Demons - 207 million
Were people really impressed with Da Vinci Code? I wasn't and I'm not banking on this flick making too much more than 200 million.
10. Wolverine - 205 million
I'll probably regret this prediction as much as I'll regret going to see the actual movie, but I don't think it will make more than X3. I think it will have a huge opening and then drop by 65%. Or it could be this year's Iron Man, who knows?