While I have to admit being depressed that "Meet the Spartans" managed to win the box office and rake in 18 million dollars, I can't say that I'm surprised. January is filled with dumb movies and dumb movies can easily make 18 - 20 million dollars when there's nothing else new coming out. In fact, this year is starting off almost exactly like 2007 did.

Week #1
2007: Night at the Museum $23m, Pursuit of Happyness $12m, Children of Men $10
2008: National Treasure 2: $20m, Juno $15m, I Am Legend $15m

So the first week was owned by holdovers and the order is the same: family friend at #1, critically acclaimed surprise succes at #2, and the not-so-typical actioner #3. While comparing the Ellen Page-led "Juno" to the Will Smith drama might be a stretch, they are both films that many people feared wouldn't find an audience.

Week #2
2007: Stomp the Yard $21m, Night at the Museum 17m, Pursuit of Happyness $9m
2008: The Bucket List: $19m, First Sunday $17, Juno $13m

The biggest difference between these two years is that the film that moved to a major release fared better. The Bucket List moved into 3000 theaters in its third week of release and took the box office. In 2007, Dreamgirls (after its fifth week of release) played in 2000 theaters but only mustered a 4th place finish. Also, National Treasure: Book of Secrets didn't have the legs that Night at the Museum had (and fell behind Juno).

Week #3
2007: Stomp the Yard $12m, Night at the Museum $12m, Dreamgirls $8
2008: Cloverfield: $40m, 27 Dresses $23m, The Bucket List $14m

Aside from Bucket List/Dreamgirls holding down the third spot, this week seems very different but it shares some similarities. To start, the new big release of this week in 2007 was, like Cloverfield, a horror film. The Hitcher simply didn't draw in anyone. And the counter-programming romantic comedy came a week early this year and fared better than 2007's Catch and Release (which only opened in half the theaters of 27 Dresses).

Week #4
2007: Epic Movie $18m, Smokin' Aces $14m, Night at the Museum $9
2008: Meet the Spartans: $18m, Rambo $18m, 27 Dresses $13m

Brain-dead comedy #1 and brain-dead actioner #2. Jennifer Garner's Catch and Release opened at #5 in 2007 taking in $4700 per theater while Diane Lane's Untraceable came in #7 with $4700 per theater. Also this week, the Oscar nominations helped art films jump to #8 (Pan's Labrynth $4.7m; There Will Be Blood $4.8m). The Departed got an expanded release (good for $3 million) as did Michael Clayton this year (good for 2 million) while The Queen (2007) and Atonement (2008) both brought in 4 million. Babel saw a slight bump in its theater count to earn 2.5 million in its 14 week while No Country for Old Men saw a similar bump in both theater count and money in its 12th week. 2008's fourth week also saw the debut of a Sundance Film Festival entry How She Move, which disappointed ($4m) about as much as Alpha Dog ($6m) which opened a couple of weeks earlier in 2007.

And what about Week 5? What will Hollywood put up against Super Bowl weekend? Well, the big release is a horror film (The Eye), like last year (The Messengers $14m).  Last year also featured the debut of Diane Keaton in "Because I Said So". Needless to say, I'm sure the studio wishes they had held Keaton's "Mad Money" to this weekend rather than going up against "Cloverfield" and "27 Dresses". Replacing it is the crappy-looking romantic comedy "Over Her Dead Body" and goofball comedy "Strange Wilderness" along with the Hannah Montana concert film (only opening in 680 theaters).
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So there are two lessons to be learned here. The first is that heavily-advertised crap movies will be a decent bet to open with 15 - 20 million. Going back through the decade, January is littered with crap that lands in that range (Snow Dogs, Just Married, The Recruit, Final Destination 2, Hostel, You Got Served, The Butterfly Effect, etc.). Usually you they'll take home 30 or 40 million overall (a recognizable name actor might add around 10 millon to that gross).

The other lesson that SHOULD be learned but simply won't be is the fact that slow releasing Oscar candidates at the end of the year is a great way to insure your film gets lost in the shuffle. There might be one or two films that breakthrough but most fall by the wayside and manage 30 - 50 million (which is barely more than the crap films that are dumped on the public in January).

Unfortunately, Hollywood isn't going to learn that any time soon because this January is going to be the biggest on record, crossing the 800 million mark for the first time ever. The best January had been in 2002, when three films made over 50 million dollars for the month and the total box office was just under 700 million. This year, 6 films have made over 50 million (with 27 Dresses knocking on the door at 45 million). On the bright side, Juno is the #1 film of the month, making 72 million. The other films are: National Treasure: Book of Secrets, Cloverfield, The Bucket List, Alvin and the Chipmunks, and I Am Legend. Needless to say, despite Juno being #1, I think Hollywood is more likely to be making more National Treasure's and Chipmunk movies in the future than smart comedies.