Well, it's that time of year again, when everyone is trying to figure out their fantasy football draft strategies (and the rest of the world tries to ignore the incessant fantasy football talk coming from their cooler co-workers). Before I go into my early round strategy, a word of warning... I'm terrible at fantasy football. I've had some decent years but more often than not, I draft a young guy before he is worth a damn ala having DeAngelo Williams his first two years but not his third) and my sleeper receivers usually don't wake up until they are looking for a 9 to 5 job. So odds are that you should ignore this but I still think it makes sense.
Looking at this season, there are two things that jump out at me: 1. there are almost know sure fire reliable workhorse backs and 2. there are even fewer elite #1 receivers out there. The first part of that is pretty obvious to anyone playing fantasy; the platoon has taken over and most every team is running a two back system out there now. However, I haven't seen part 2 be mentioned as much. But looking at it, the only receivers I really love are Andre Johnson and Randy Moss. Larry Fitzgerald is hurt, lost Anquan Boldin across from him, and has Matt Leinart throwing at him. Brandon Marshall's in a new system. I keep expecting a down year from Reggie Wayne. I had Roddy White last year and didn't love him as a #1. Calvin Johnson's a beast but how often will the Lions actually score? Now, I'm not saying that all of these guys are bums but if I had to pick between having a surefire #1 WR like Johnson or Moss and having a lesser back like Rashard Mendenhall instead of Ryan Grant, Shonn Greene, or even DeAngelo Williams, I'd do it.
So the way my top picks break down is:
1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Ray Rice
4. Mo Jo Drew
5. Frank Gore
6. Michael Turner
7. Andre Johnson
8. Randy Moss
The wild cards are DeAngelo Williams and Steven Jackson. In Williams' case, he's going to lose carries to Jonathon Stewart and I also think that all defenses are going to really be focusing on the run 100% this year which could make things more difficult. If you get DeAngelo, you almost have to try to get Stewart which might be unlikely and, at best, just means you spent your 2nd and 3rd round picks on running backs from the same team. SJax have Megatron's problem - will his team ever score? Not to mention that he isn't getting any younger and, like the Panthers, the Rams have a passing attack that you'd almost rather see press their luck so the run is going to be priority #1 for opposing defenses.
So for me, Johnson and Moss go first and then 9/10/11 is Williams, Jackson, and Ryan Grant. Grant goes there because he's in a great offense and seems to be as low risk of a pick (albeit with little hope of a huge breakout year) as there is out there.
That brings us to the wraparound #12 and #13. For me the question is this: do you invest in one of the best remaining receivers, maybe go for one of the elite QB's, or just go with the usual plan of grabbing the best two running backs available.
I usually go running backs but if a draft pans out like mine has this far, you're picking between: Shonn Greene, Cedric Benson, Pierre Thomas, Rashard Mendenhall and then the Question Marks (Ryan Matthews, Knowshown Moreno, Beanie Wells, Jamaal Charles, etc.) Might it not be better to hold off and grab a QB or receiver? Why not grab a top QB or WR and roll the dice on Felix Jones in round 3 as opposed to taking Jamaal Charles now? I'm not a huge fan of QB's in the first round (especially because the one time I did it, I took Tom Brady and he went down in the first game of the season) but Brees and Rodgers are pretty damn great and I feel like there's a fairly steep drop-off after the top 4 QB's.
Honestly, I'm still a bit torn on what to do here so I'll hold off the answer to this until the second round post. But for now, I'm going to roll the dice with Shonn Greene at #12.